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DOE OSTI2021

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Whole-building life-cycle analysis with a new GREET® tool: Embodied greenhouse gas emissions and payback period of a LEED-Certified library

Embodied greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of building components and buildings operations need to be quantified to holistically address building sustainability. To evaluate embodied GHG emissions of buildings and to provide insights on building materials and building design decisions toward decarbonization, we have recently created a building life-cycle assessment (LCA) module in the widely used Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET (R)) LCA model. We applied the GREET building LCA module to examine embodied GHG impacts and the payback period of a LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) certified public library in Chicago, USA. We developed localized, detailed life-cycle inventories to address individual building materials used in the library. We expanded the LCA system boundary to include the mechanical, electrical, and plumbing system, as well as refrigerant impacts, which are often ignored in previous studies. Results show that the total embodied GHG emissions are approximately 817 metric tons, or approximately 538 kg/m 2 . Sensitivity analysis highlights the positive role of increasing the use of recycled materials for reducing embodied GHG emissions. Sensitivity analysis on embodied GHG emissions payback periods shows the need to benchmark the embodied and operational carbon performance of buildings for comparison to alternative building designs and sustainability practices. Furthermore, this analysis demonstrates that building LCA models, such as the GREET building LCA module, which addresses embodied and operational GHG emission impacts of whole buildings holistically, could empower building architects, technology developers, manufacturers, and general contractors to address embodied and operational impacts holistically for building sustainability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Falling-film heat exchangers used in desalination systems: A review

With growing demand for fresh water, there has been an increasing interest in energy-efficient desalination technologies. Falling-film-based, multi-effect distillation (MED) systems have been extensively deployed world-wide. The performance of such systems heavily depends on the efficiency of the evaporation process. Here, research on falling-film heat exchangers used in desalination systems, especially MED systems, is critically reviewed to assess the state of the technology. The review includes falling-film evaporation mechanisms, system operation, and scaling issues. Finally, opportunities for further application and areas where more research is needed are identified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of a rapid, generic human gestational dose model

Chemical risk assessment considers potentially susceptible populations including pregnant women and developing fetuses. Humans encounter thousands of chemicals in their environments, few of which have been fully characterized. Toxicokinetic (TK) information is needed to relate chemical exposure to potentially bioactive tissue concentrations. Observational data describing human gestational exposures are unavailable for most chemicals, but physiologically based TK (PBTK) models estimate such exposures. Development of chemical-specific PBTK models requires considerable time and resources. As an alternative, generic PBTK approaches describe a standardized physiology and characterize chemicals with a set of standard physical and TK descriptors – primarily plasma protein binding and hepatic clearance. Here we report and evaluate a generic PBTK model of a human mother and developing fetus. We used a published set of formulas describing the major anatomical and physiological changes that occur during pregnancy to augment the High-Throughput Toxicokinetics (httk) software package. We simulated the ratio of concentrations in maternal and fetal plasma and compared to literature in vivo measurements. We evaluated the model with literature in vivo time-course measurements of maternal plasma concentrations in pregnant and non-pregnant women. Finally, we prioritized chemicals measured in maternal serum based on predicted fetal brain concentrations. This new model can be used for TK simulations of 859 chemicals with existing human-specific in vitro TK data as well as any new chemicals for which such data become available. Furthermore, this gestational model may allow for in vitro to in vivo extrapolation of point of departure doses relevant to reproductive and developmental toxicity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing outdoor air quality and public health impact attributable to residential black carbon emissions in rural China

Black carbon (BC) is a significant component of particulate matter (PM) that relates to air pollution, climate forcing, and further implications for public health. BC is predominantly released from the combustion of solid fuels. Combustion of low-quality fuels in rural China may induce severe respiratory and cardiopulmonary health outcomes for residents, which have however been inadequately assessed. One major reason for the limited understanding is the lack of a high-resolution inventory. An improved method of estimating the BC-associated public health burden is needed. This work quantified premature mortalities due to residential BC emissions in rural China. Domestic BC emissions at 1×1 km resolution were compiled based on previous field investigation, which were further configured for air quality simulation. A chemistry transport model, WRF–CMAQ v5.2, was employed for simulating BC concentrations. The consequent premature mortalities were quantified by a BC-specific concentration-response function (CRF) derived from an epidemiological study. Results show that residential combustion of solid fuel in rural China emitted 648.0 Gg (95%CI: 361.0–965.9) BC in 2014, after dispersion, accounting for 51.8% of annual mean ground-level BC concentration in China. Such impact was most severe in North and Northeast China, and the Sichuan Basin. The further investigation estimated 171,000 (95%CI: 69,000–387,000) premature mortalities that were attributable to exposure to rural residential BC. These findings reveal the major contribution of rural residential BC emissions to air pollution formation and public health impacts. Our findings are anticipated to provide useful information for enacting the next-stage environmental strategy for the residential sector in China.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2022

The nitrogen gap in soil health concepts and fertility measurements

Soil nitrogen (N) often limits productivity in agroecosystems, prompting fertilizer applications that increase crop yields but can degrade the environment. Nitrogen's dual role in both productivity and environmental quality should center it in soil health frameworks. We use recent evidence to argue that N availability is an emergent property of the integrated soil biogeochemical system and is strongly influenced by plant traits and their interactions with microbes and minerals. Building upon this, we theorize that the sources of plant and microbial N shift across soil health gradients, from inorganic N dependence in ecologically simple systems with poor soil health to a highly networked supply of organic N in healthy soils; ergo, investments in soil health should increase ecological complexity and the pathways by which plants can access N, leading to more resilient nutrient supplies and yields in a variable climate. However, current N assessment methods derive from a historical emphasis on inorganic N pool sizes and are unable to capture the shifting drivers of N availability across soil health gradients. We highlight the need to better understand the plant-microbial-mineral interactions that regulate bioavailable N as a first step to improving our ability to measure it. We conclude it will be necessary to harness agroecosystem complexity, account for plant and microbial drivers, and carefully integrate external N inputs into soils' internal N network to expand the routes by which N from organic pools can be made bioavailable. Finally, by emphasizing N in soil health concepts, we argue that researchers can accelerate advances in N use efficiency and resiliency.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Potential of Hydrogeodesy to Address Water-Related and Sustainability Challenges

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite-based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta-analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water-related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Compensatory reserve detects subclinical shock with more expeditious prediction for need of life‐saving interventions compared to systolic blood pressure and blood lactate

Abstract Introduction We conducted a prospective observational study on 205 trauma patients at a level I trauma facility to test the hypothesis that a compensatory reserve measurement (CRM) would identify higher risk for progression to shock and/or need a life‐saving interventions (LSIs) earlier than systolic blood pressure (SBP) and blood lactate (LAC). Methods A composite outcome metric included blood transfusion, procedural LSI, and mortality. Discrete measures assessed as abnormal (ab) were SBP <90 mmHg, CRM <60%, and LAC >2.0. A graded categorization of shock was defined as: no shock (normal [n] SBP [n‐SBP], n‐CRM, n‐LAC); sub‐clinical shock (ab‐CRM, n‐SBP, n‐LAC); occult shock (n‐SBP, ab‐CRM, ab‐LAC); or overt shock (ab‐SBP, ab‐CRM, ab‐LAC). Results Three patients displayed overt shock, 53 displayed sub‐clinical shock, and 149 displayed no shock. After incorporating lactate into the analysis, 86 patients demonstrated no shock, 25 were classified as sub‐clinical shock, 91 were classified as occult shock, and 3 were characterized as overt shock. Each shock subcategory revealed a graded increase requiring LSI and transfusion. Initial CRM was associated with progression to shock (odds ratio = 0.97; p < .001) at an earlier time than SBP or LAC. Conclusions Initial CRM uncovers a clinically relevant subset of patients who are not detected by SBP and LAC. Our results suggest CRM could be used to more expeditiously identify injured patients likely to deteriorate to shock, with requirements for blood transfusion or procedural LSI.

Convertino, Victor A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Robust Solution Verification Experiments on Nonuniform Meshes

The activities of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) provide a comprehensive means to assess the credibility of computational models. Within VVUQ, solution verification assesses numerical errors and evaluates whether the simulation is sufficiently accurate for its intended applications. As computational modeling gains traction in the development of complex, high-consequence systems, the need for robust solution verification intensifies, particularly because experimental data for these systems are often limited. This work examines improvements in the robustness of Richardson extrapolation (RE), a method commonly used in solution verification to study the discretization error of computational models using a power law. Nonuniform mesh refinement is discussed alongside other pollutants that affect the robustness of the power law model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is proposed as a robust strategy to address the uncertainty generated by nonuniform mesh refinement. An exploratory computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of a 2D planar Poiseuille flow is conducted to determine if nonuniform mesh noise can be modeled with this MLE approach for more robust RE.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chemical-specific Parameters Dataset

The chemical-specific parameters dataset is searchable for physicochemical information for multiple chemicals simultaneously. After selecting chemicals of interest and the desired parameters, the RAIS will generate a table containing the values, chosen according to an established hierarchy. Results can be downloaded in Excel format. Over 40 parameters are available, including melting point, boiling point, density, density, vapor pressure, water solubility, and Henry’s Law constants. Thirteen primary sources are used to populate the dataset of chemical-specific parameters. These values should be used in cancer risk and noncancer hazard assessments for the calculation of preliminary remediation goals (PRGs), hazard characterization, and transport modeling. Users can select up to 1000 chemicals per query. The dataset supports environmental risk assessments, regulatory decision-making, and environmental planning with tools for benchmarking against risk-based standards. This structured approach ensures a robust evaluation of environmental risks tailored to regulatory needs.

Dolislager, Fred [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

DOE OSTI2024

Toxicity Values for Chemicals

The toxicity values for chemicals contained in this dataset comprise acute, subchronic, and chronic exposure durations. Cancer slope factors, inhalation unit risk, reference dose, and reference concentrations are available. These values should be used in cancer risk and noncancer hazard assessments for the calculation of preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) and hazard characterization. Users can select toxicity values from 10 combinations of exposure durations and cancer/noncancer toxicity values and select up to 1000 chemicals per query. The dataset supports environmental risk assessments, regulatory decision-making, and environmental planning with tools for benchmarking against risk-based standards. This structured approach ensures a robust evaluation of environmental risks tailored to regulatory needs.

Stewart, Debra [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radionuclide-specific Parameters Dataset

The radionuclide-specific parameters dataset is searchable for radiological information for multiple isotopes simultaneously. After selecting radionuclides of interest and the desired parameters, the RAIS will generate a table containing the values, chosen according to an established hierarchy. Results can be downloaded in Excel format. 50 parameters are available, including atomic number, soil to animal transfer coefficients, plant uptake coefficients, half-life, specific activity, and water solubility. Seven primary sources are used to populate the dataset of radiological-specific parameters. These values should be used in cancer risk assessments for the calculation of preliminary remediation goals (PRGs), hazard characterization, and transport modeling. Users can select up to 1000 radionuclides per query. The dataset supports environmental risk assessments, regulatory decision-making, and environmental planning with tools for benchmarking against risk-based standards. This structured approach ensures a robust evaluation of environmental risks tailored to regulatory needs.

Manning, Karessa [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (O↗

DOE OSTI2021

Competitiveness Metrics for Electricity System Technologies

The relative economic competitiveness of power generation technologies is a topic of much interest to diverse electric industry participants. However, assessing competitiveness can be challenging as it requires considering both total costs and total system value of each technology, which are complicated by the (1) numerous and diverse grid services needed to operate a reliable power system; (2) variations in the economic value of the grid services with system state and location, and over multiple timescales, due to the challenges of transporting and storing electricity; and (3) the unique characteristics of different electric system assets. Ideally, metrics designed or used to convey technology competitiveness must consider these complexities, but existing metrics often fall short. For example, the levelized cost of energy does not consider the system economic value of the various technologies nor does it consider services beyond electricity production. Various other metrics have been designed with the purpose of more-accurately communicating the economic viability of electric system technologies. In this report, we summarize the primary sources and components of costs and value and review the known competitiveness metrics by presenting their definitions, applications, advantages, and disadvantages. We also introduce a new set of competitiveness metrics, which we refer to as System Profitability metrics, that more-directly applies the economic principles of return-on-investment to electric system technologies. We use conceptual examples to show how the System Profitability metrics better reflect economic viability and relative technology competitiveness compared with existing metrics. We also describe how competitiveness metrics can be quantified using optimization-based models and demonstrate this capability using a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recommendations for Radiological Data Assessment Implementation

Since thorough verification, validation, and data quality assessment (DQA) processes may delay incident commanders and elected and appointed officials from making key decisions, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) National Urban Security Technology Laboratory (NUSTL) tasked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop tools and guidance for the federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial (FSLTT) responders using research, discussions with select FSLTT responders, and the experiences of subject matter experts in incident response. This report provides NUSTL with recommendations on best practices for verification, validation, and data quality assessment for the data collected by responders during a radiological or nuclear event. The purpose of this report is to inform the development of a DQA toolkit aimed at the needs of data assessors during the response to a radiological incident.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between National Energy Technology Laboratory and Gas Technology Institute (Abstract)

Hydrogen has the potential to play an important role in decarbonizing energy-intensive sectors, and credible and open-source protocols are needed to vet the environmental credibility of a specific production pathway, given the variability even among the same technologies. Stakeholders and markets lack consistent, transparent, technical tools and protocols to assess the carbon intensity of hydrogen production at the asset level. Gas Technology Institute (GTI) and S&P Global Platts have launched the Open Hydrogen Initiative (OHI), a new collaboration focused on brining industry within the hydrogen marketplace together to provide further transparency into the environmental greenhouse gas (GHG) impact of hydrogen production. As part of this initiative, GTI has invited NETL to participate in the effort because of NETL’s deep expertise and capabilities in Life Cycle Analysis. Therefore, NETL is joining forces with the Gas Technology Institute (GTI) to build a measurement tool, accompanying protocols, and confidence score of the quality of the measurement. This CRADA effort provides the technical research collaboration support with GTI that will be used in the broader Open Hydrogen Initiative that can provide stakeholders the technical tools and protocols to decarbonize energyintensive sectors.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Storage Technical Viability Approach (CS TVA): An Integrated Approach for Feasibility and Data Resource Assessment

There is currently a poor understanding and lack of workflow to understand the technical viability of carbon storage spatially. To address this gap, the multi-faceted Carbon Storage Technical Viability Approach (CS TVA) is being developed to incorporate CO2 storage resources, environmental and socio-economic justice (EJ/SJ) factors to enable more comprehensive assessments. The CS TVA includes a (1) matrix framework, (2) an integrated and labeled database, (3) a data availability assessment workflow, and (4) spatial data availability assessment results. This approach leverages spatial and data science analytics to communicate data density, uncertainty, and gaps. The workflow can be applied in whole or in part, based on user needs.

Rodriguez, Neyda Cordero↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unsaturated alluvium disposal modelling with improved geological realism

This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 associated with the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) Repository Systems Analysis (RSA) work package funded by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), Office of Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD). The overall objective of the GDSA RSA work package is to develop generic deep geologic repository concepts and system performance assessment (PA) models in several potential host-rock environments, and to simulate and analyze these generic repository concepts and models using the GDSA Framework toolkit and other tools as needed. The specific GDSA goal addressed in this report is reference case development, simulation, and analysis for the unsaturated alluvium (UZ), one of the four potential host-rocks considered by the GDSA. Further, we aim to exercise the simulation tools and methodologies under development by GDSA for PA modelling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Generation and Industrial Heat Opportunities for Nuclear Plants in the Gulf Coast

The United States (U.S.) nuclear-generation fleet stands as a critical national strategic asset, playing a pivotal role in achieving climate goals. Operating on light-water reactor (LWR) technologies, this fleet provides the largest share of U.S. carbon-free electrical generation, ensuring 24/7 clean-energy stability. With a proven track record of reliability while operating at high-capacity factors, consistently above 90%, the existing nuclear fleet serves as a cornerstone for sustainable energy. The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS), Flexible Plant Operations and Generation pathway addresses U.S. nuclear power plant (NPP) grid integration challenges in the face of evolving energy landscapes. Research at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) highlights the potential synergy between high-temperature steam-electrolysis (HTSE) technology and nuclear steam and electricity during periods of high renewable grid penetration. Large-scale nuclear-integrated hydrogen production through HTSE presents significant potential for decarbonizing such energy-intensive sectors as oil refining, petrochemicals, ammonia, and fertilizers. The strategic advantage lies in the nuclear sector’s capability to deliver clean electrical and/or steam output during periods of low demand. Nuclear-produced hydrogen—with its ability to provide high-purity clean H 2 well below the national standard of 1 kg of CO 2 per kg of H 2 —represents a breakthrough methodology. This emphasizes the crucial role NPPs can fill in addressing the increasing need for clean hydrogen, establishing them as essential contributors to decarbonization. This report specifically delves into hydrogen-generation opportunities from the U.S. Gulf Coast region. This study aims to assess NPP capabilities for hydrogen production and to identify practical nearby industrial and pipeline-operator off-takers for nuclear-integrated hydrogen production as well as to present some specific case-study analysis showing the conditions under which nuclear hydrogen production and sale can be profitable. Also considered in this report is preliminary analysis of nuclear-heat opportunities accessible near Waterford NPP via transportation of hypothetical steam pipelines and heat-exchange equipment.

08 HYDROGEN↗