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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,171 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic modeling of soft x-ray emissivity for magnetic island analysis in LTX-β

We present a synthetic soft x-ray (SXR) forward-modeling framework that characterizes the emissivity structure of rotating magnetic islands in the Lithium Tokamak eXperiment-β across space and time. Magnetic islands associated with tearing modes produce modulations in line-integrated SXR brightness. Traditional tomographic methods struggle to resolve these structures in devices with limited sightlines, resulting in an under-determined inversion problem, or otherwise necessitate equilibrium reconstruction data, preventing their use in active control. Our approach removes this challenge by combining a fully three-dimensional ray-tracing model with a time-dependent emissivity prescription of a $m/n$ = 2/1 magnetic island. The model is validated through helical island geometry, rotation measured by magnetic diagnostics, and equilibrium constraints from PSI-Tri reconstructions. Synthetic brightness signals are generated for each photodiode sightline from a modeled emissivity profile and directly compared with experimental data from a tangential midplane SXR array. By fitting the synthetic diagnostic output to the observed brightness across time, we simultaneously infer key geometric parameters-such as island radial location, island width, and rotation frequency-without requiring full tomographic reconstruction, all with an average absolute deviation of less than 3%. This work demonstrates that forward modeling with a single tangential array can extract key island parameters in a spherical tokamak, providing a computationally efficient alternative to conventional SXR tomography and providing a pathway toward real-time magnetic-island characterization in future devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Applying Particle Swarm Optimization and Extended Kalman Filtering to Model Kaplan Generation Dynamics for Hydropower Systems

Variable renewable generation is increasing the need for hydropower plants to provide fast and flexible grid support, which places new demands on plant-level dynamic models used for monitoring, control, and operational decision-making. This need is especially important for hydroelectric systems, where turbine and generator dynamics are strongly coupled, nonlinear, and time-varying, making accurate real-time representation difficult. To address this problem, this paper develops a digital twin (DT) framework for a synchronous generator–Kaplan turbine system using an explicit separation of slow turbine dynamics and fast generator dynamics. The turbine subsystem is represented by a six-coefficient model, whose parameters are identified offline using particle swarm optimization, while the generator subsystem is updated online through an extended Kalman filter for real-time state and parameter estimation. These models are integrated within a closed-loop simulation that includes a proportional–integral–derivative–double-derivative governor and excitation system, allowing the DT to track plant behavior under realistic operating conditions. Unlike prior studies that treat turbine and generator modeling separately or rely mainly on simulated inputs, the proposed framework is validated using real operational data from a hydropower plant. Results show that the DT reproduces terminal voltage, active power, and reactive power with a normalized root mean square error of approximately 5%. This hybrid offline–online formulation constitutes the main contribution of the work, providing an adaptive and practically deployable DT for hydropower systems with direct relevance to control improvement, performance monitoring, and grid-support applications under high renewable penetration.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Modeling in Support of Operational Efficiency (Final Report)

To improve the realism of Fire PRA associated with fire progression and damage modeling or manual suppression, previous research by the Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (SoTeRiA) Research Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign focused on the development of an Integrated PRA (I-PRA) methodological framework for fire risk analysis in NPPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A radioisotope - enabled reactive transport model for deep vadose zone carbon

In mountainous regions, which constitute the principle source of recharge to major rivers and regional aquifers, infiltration occurs through fractured, partially saturated, weathered bedrock that acts as a boundary layer between saturated aquifers and surface soil. Commonly this deep vadose zone (DVZ) is many meters thick, and yet its role in regulating the generation, retention and mobility of reactive solutes, including nutrients, contaminants and weathering products, is largely unknown. In particular, many of the key reactions that drive the formation of the weathered DVZ and the quality of water moving through it are redox processes, regulated by the availability of organic carbon and oxygen below the soil layer. The role of the DVZ is thus also poorly constrained in the context of carbon stocks and mobility, particularly in lithologies that are naturally high in organic carbon, such as shales. The overarching hypothesis of this study is that upland regions developed in geologic settings with abundant petrogenic carbon store and actively cycle carbon in the weathered DVZ below the soil and above the water table at rates that are significant and currently unconstrained. In order to quantify this cycling, the current study combines novel instrumentation techniques allowing new direct sampling of DVZ systems with advanced numerical reactive transport simulations of carbon transport and transformation. Critically, these simulations will explicitly treat the three isotopes of carbon (the abundant 12C, the stable rare 13C and the radioactive 14C) in a unified framework, thus clearly parsing between the contributions of modern surface derived carbon and lithologic carbon sources in integrated measurements of fluid and gas phase fluxes. This novel model capability will be applied to test the role of DVZ carbon cycling as a regulator of water quality and geological weathering in two complementary field sites both located in organic carbon rich shale lithologies. The first is the Eel River Critical Zone Observatory (ERCZO) in Mendocino County, California, and the second is the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) in the East River watershed, near Crested Butte, Colorado. At the ERCZO, a novel vadose zone monitoring system has been installed in a 20 m thick, partially saturated, weathered shale hillslope, and preliminary data already indicate substantial CO2 flux generated many meters below the soil surface. At the SFA field site, an instrumented hillslope transect indicates a more complex multi-dimensional fluid and solute transport regime, which will serve as a key test of the calibrated models. Collectively, this project will advance understanding of the cycling of carbon belowground and in relation to transport pathways across the poorly constrained DVZ characteristic of primary water recharge areas. The key product of this work will be enhanced isotope simulation capabilities that are robust and publicly available for application across a broad diversity of systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A knowledge-informed large language model framework for U.S. nuclear power plant shutdown initiating event classification for probabilistic risk assessment

Identifying and classifying shutdown initiating events (SDIEs) is critical for developing shutdown probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power plants. Existing computational approaches cannot achieve satisfactory performance due to the challenges of unavailable large, labeled datasets, imbalanced event types, and label noise. To address these challenges, we propose a hybrid pipeline that integrates a knowledge-informed machine learning model to prescreen non-SDIEs and a large language model (LLM) to classify SDIEs into four types. In the prescreening stage, we proposed a set of 44 SDIE text patterns that consist of the most salient keywords and phrases from six SDIE types. Text vectorization based on the SDIE patterns generates feature vectors that are highly separable by using a simple binary classifier. The second stage builds Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based LLM, which learns generic English language representations from self-supervised pretraining on a large dataset and adapts to SDIE classification by fine-tuning it on an SDIE dataset. The proposed approaches are evaluated on a dataset with 10,928 events using precision, recall ratio, F 1 score, and average accuracy. In conclusion, the results demonstrate that the prescreening stage can exclude more than 97% non-SDIEs, and the LLM achieves an average accuracy of 95.1% for SDIE classification.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Vertically Resolved MSE Framework Highlights the Role of the Boundary Layer in Convective Self-Aggregation

Abstract Convective self-aggregation refers to a phenomenon in which random convection can self-organize into large-scale clusters over an ocean surface with uniform temperature in cloud-resolving models. Previous literature studies convective aggregation primarily by analyzing vertically integrated (VI) moist static energy (MSE) variance. That is the global MSE variance, including both the local MSE variance at a given altitude and the covariance of MSE anomalies between different altitudes. Here we present a vertically resolved (VR) MSE framework that focuses on the local MSE variance to study convective self-aggregation. Using a cloud-resolving simulation, we show that the development of self-aggregation is associated with an increase of local MSE variance, and that the diabatic and adiabatic generation of the MSE variance is mainly dominated by the boundary layer (BL; the lowest 2 km). The results agree with recent numerical simulation results and the available potential energy analyses showing that the BL plays a key role in the development of self-aggregation. Additionally, we find that the lower free troposphere (2–4 km) also generates significant MSE variance in the first 15 days. We further present a detailed comparison between the global and local MSE variance frameworks in their mathematical formulation and diagnostic results, highlighting their differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Continental-Scale Controls on Hyporheic Respiration Revealed by Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning

Hyporheic zone sediments regulate organic matter turnover and in-stream respiration, yet controls on sediment respiration remain poorly constrained across heterogeneous river networks, limiting prediction of stream metabolism and carbon processing at continental scales. Here, we integrate observations from ~90 river corridors across the United States in the WHONDRS consortium with a knowledge-guided machine learning (KGML) framework that couples thermodynamic rate theory with machine learning to identify dominant controls on hyporheic respiration. Diagnostic analyses show that organic matter concentration and thermodynamic favorability define an upper bound on respiration potential, whereas biological catalytic capacity and physical accessibility jointly govern realized respiration rates through interaction effects. To represent unmeasurable accessibility constraints, we use the mechanistic model as a scaffold for KGML, allowing machine learning to target residual structure not explained by process theory. This hybrid framework improves predictive skill relative to both the mechanistic model alone and fully data-driven models while preserving interpretability. These results indicate that variability in hyporheic respiration is largely mechanistically structured and demonstrate how integrating process theory with explainable AI enhances predictive performance while enabling scalable synthesis of river corridor observations.

Zheng, Jianqiu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid data-driven cement-stabilized soil design: An integration of machine learning, multi-objective optimization, and life cycle assessment

Soil stabilization is crucial in geotechnical engineering, yet conventional methods are often time-consuming, resource-intensive, and environmentally unsustainable. Despite growing interest in Machine Learning (ML) and optimization tools for mix design, few studies integrate these methods with decision-making techniques and environmental assessment to support practical implementation. This study proposes a hybrid data-driven framework for predicting strength, optimizing mix compositions, and evaluating environmental impacts via life cycle assessment of cement-stabilized soft soils. Six ML models were evaluated, and the top-performing eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model was further improved using the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). The optimized XGB-GWO model, integrated with a polynomial cost function, served as the objective function in a multi-objective optimization problem solved via the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), with final mix selection guided by the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method. Validation through a case study produced mix designs offering superior strength-cost trade-offs, with the optimal mix achieving 2243.2 kPa unconfined compressive strength and a 16.07 % reduction in carbon emissions compared to the highest-cost design. In conclusion, this study offers a sustainable, scalable approach to soil stabilization and supports informed decision-making in construction.

Life cycle assessment↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Multiphysics Multiscale Simulation Platform for Damage, Environmental Degradation, and Life Prediction of CMCs in Extreme Environments

This project successfully developed a multiphysics, multiscale computational framework to enhance the design and development of CMCs, with a focus on modeling highly nonlinear, time-dependent damage mechanisms and material degradation under extreme conditions, such as those experienced in turbine service environments. The project made significant advances in improving our understanding of progressive damage, oxidative degradation, and time-dependent inelastic deformation in CMCs, with particular attention to the role of uncertainties in predictions. Key outcomes include the integration of advanced material characterization, uncertainty quantification, and multiphysics constitutive models to predict the behavior of CMCs over their service life. A novel multiscale methodology was employed, which integrated microscale constituent behaviors with structural-scale responses, enabling the manufacturing defects in the microstructure that are prone to damage nucleation. Through the development of DL algorithms, the project advanced the prediction of damage initiation and crack propagation, taking into account the defect morphology and statistical variations across multiple scales. The framework was rigorously validated using thermomechanical experiments, which tested CMCs under various mechanical loadings at elevated temperatures, further enhancing the model's predictive capability. Overall, the research outcomes have provided a more accurate, reliable method for predicting CMC component life, significantly advancing material design, and improving component reliability in extreme environments. This work has strong implications for the optimization of turbine components and other high-performance applications where CMCs are used.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Feasibility of Formulating Ecosystem Biogeochemical Models From Established Physical Rules

Abstract To improve the predictive capability of ecosystem biogeochemical models (EBMs), we discuss the feasibility of formulating biogeochemical processes using physical rules that have underpinned the many successes in computational physics and chemistry. We argue that the currently popular empirically based approaches, such as multiplicative empirical response functions and the law of the minimum, will not lead to EBM formulations that can be continuously refined to incorporate improved mechanistic understanding and empirical observations of biogeochemical processes. Instead, we propose that EBM parameterizations, as a lossy data compression problem, can be better formulated using established physical rules widely used in computational physics and chemistry, and different biogeochemical processes can be more robustly integrated within a reactive‐transport framework. Through several examples, we demonstrate how mathematical representations derived from physical rules can improve understanding of relevant biogeochemical processes and enable more effective communication between modelers, observationalists, and experimentalists regarding essential questions, such as what measurements are needed to meaningfully inform models and how can models generate new process‐level hypotheses to test in empirical studies. Finally, while empirical models with more parameters are often less robust, physical rules‐based models can be more robust and show lower predictive equifinality, stemming from their enhanced consistency in representations of processes, interactions and spatial scaling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Urban Water Resilience: Coproducing Knowledge through Civic–Academic Global Partnerships on Water and Climate

As extreme weather events become more pronounced, the vulnerabilities associated with the urban water supply and wastewater systems in megacities are intensified in multiple interconnected dimensions. These multifaceted water challenges can benefit from enhanced cross-sectoral collaboration and sharing of critical knowledge, which are essential for sustainable and adaptive water governance frameworks. In this context, the Megacity Alliance for Water and Climate (MAWAC)–Europe and North America Region (ENAR) Working Group convened a workshop in March 2023, followed by a subsequent workshop in London, United Kingdom, from 11 to 13 September 2024. These workshops aimed to investigate and devise solutions for the cascading hazards with water systems. The solutions examined various aspects focused on climate adaptation and mitigation, stormwater management, and the governance of water and wastewater systems. Additionally, discussions highlighted the importance of community engagement, economic considerations, equity, and effective communication in addressing these pressing challenges. Over the course of 3 days, experts from academia, government agencies, and industry engaged in meaningful discussions on digital modeling for integrated water management, climate-informed urban planning, and public–private–academic partnerships (Fig. 1). Case studies from cities such as New York, Los Angeles, London, Paris, and Chicago highlighted innovative governance strategies for managing water and wastewater systems, promoting water reuse, planning infrastructure, and fostering stakeholder-driven and stakeholder-informed adaptation. The workshop participants emphasized the need for data-driven decision-making, scalable governance models, and knowledge-sharing networks to enhance urban water governance for sustainability and resilience. This workshop report presents the key takeaways from the 3-day convening, providing a roadmap for integrating scientific research, policy frameworks, and emerging technologies to address water challenges faced by megacities.

Hydrologic models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and Rapid Prototyping of Integrated Transmission-Distribution OPF Formulations with PowerModelsITD.jl

Conventional electric power systems are composed of different unidirectional power flow stages of generation, transmission, and distribution, managed independently by transmission system and distribution system operators. However, as distribution systems increase in complexity due to the integration of distributed energy resources, coordination between transmission and distribution networks will be imperative for the optimal operation of the power grid. However, coupling models and formulations between transmission and distribution is non-trivial, in particular due to the common practice of modeling transmission systems as single-phase, and distribution systems as multi-conductor phase-unbalanced. To enable the rapid prototyping of power flow formulations, in particular in the modeling of the boundary conditions between these two seemingly incompatible data models, we introduce PowerModelsITD.jl, a free, open-source toolkit written in Julia for integrated transmission-distribution (ITD) optimization that leverages mature optimization libraries from the InfrastructureModels.jl-ecosystem. The primary objective of the proposed framework is to provide baseline implementations of steady-state ITD optimization problems, while providing a common platform for the evaluation of emerging formulations and optimization problems. In this work, we introduce the nonlinear formulations currently supported in PowerModelsITD.jl, which include AC-polar, AC-rectangular, current-voltage, and a linear network transportation model. Results are validated using combinations of IEEE transmission and distribution networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Framework for Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning for Geological Carbon Sequestration (DIAL-GCS) (Final Report)

This project aimed to develop and demonstrate a Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning framework for geologic carbon sequestration projects (DIAL-GCS). DIAL-GCS is an intelligence monitoring system (IMS) for automating GCS closed-loop management by leveraging recent developments in machine learning technologies, complex event processing (CEP), and reduced-order modeling. The safe and efficient operation of GCS repositories requires integrated monitoring to track the injected CO¬2 as it moves within a storage reservoir. GCS projects are data intensive, as a result of proliferation of digital instrumentation and smart-sensing technologies. GCS projects are also resource intensive, often requiring multidisciplinary teams performing different monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) tasks throughout the lifecycle of a project to ensure secure containment of injected CO2. The success of GCS thus depends in a large part on our ability to access, assimilate, and analyze heterogeneous data and information sources in a timely manner. This project included a number of meaningful and necessary tasks to transform the human domain knowledge into machine-interpretable rules for automating knowledge extraction and discovery in GCS. The specific technical objectives of the proposed DIAL-GCS project were to develop an ontology-driven GCS data management module for storing, querying, and exchanging GCS data (both historic and live sensor data) from multiple sources and in heterogeneous formats. Incorporate a CEP engine for detecting abnormal situations by seamlessly combining expert knowledge, rule-based reasoning, and machine learning. Enable uncertainty quantification and predictive analytics using a combination of coupled-process modeling, AI/ML methods, and reduced-order modeling, and integrate and demonstrate the system’s capabilities with both real and simulated data. As far as we know, this is one of the first projects aimed to develop intelligent monitoring systems (IMS) targeting the GCS. Under this project, the team had developed a large number of web applications and scientific algorithms that contribute the main theme of intelligent monitoring. The team has published more than a dozen peer reviewed papers and disseminated the research results at multiple technical meetings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

QES-Plume v1.0: a Lagrangian dispersion model

Low-cost simulations providing accurate predictions of transport of airborne material in urban areas, vegetative canopies, and complex terrain are demanding because of the small-scale heterogeneity of the features influencing the mean flow and turbulence fields. Common models used to predict turbulent transport of passive scalars are based on the Lagrangian stochastic dispersion model. The Quick Environmental Simulation (QES) tool is a low-computational-cost framework developed to provide high-resolution wind and concentration fields in a variety of complex atmospheric-boundary-layer environments. Part of the framework, QES-Plume, is a Lagrangian dispersion code that uses a time-implicit integration scheme to solve the generalized Langevin equations which require mean flow and turbulence fields. Here, QES-Plume is driven by QES-Winds, a 3D fast-response model that computes mass-consistent wind fields around buildings, vegetation, and hills using empirical parameterizations, and QES-Turb, a local-mixing-length turbulence model. In this paper, the particle dispersion model is presented and validated against analytical solutions to examine QES-Plume’s performance under idealized conditions. In particular, QES-Plume is evaluated against a classical Gaussian plume model for an elevated continuous point-source release in uniform flow, the Lagrangian scaling of dispersion in isotropic turbulence, and a non-Gaussian plume model for an elevated continuous point-source release in a power-law boundary-layer flow. In these cases, QES-Plume yields a maximum relative error below 6 % when compared with analytical solutions. In addition, the model is tested against wind-tunnel data for a uniform array of cubical buildings. QES-Plume exhibits good agreement with the experiment with 99 % of matched zeros and 59 % of the predicted concentrations falling within a factor of 2 of the experimental concentrations. Furthermore, results also emphasize the importance of using high-quality turbulence models for particle dispersion in complex environments. Finally, QES-Plume demonstrates excellent computational performance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning an Ab-Initio Based Bond-Order Potential for Bismuthene

Bismuthene is a heavy 2D material whose strong spin–orbit coupling and recently observed single-element ferroelectricity have intensified interest in its structural, vibrational, and transport properties. Accurate modeling of these behaviors requires a short-range interatomic potential that can reproduce the underlying bonding physics at a fraction of the computational cost of first-principles methods. However, such a potential is currently unavailable. Here, in this work, we construct a Tersoff bond-order potential for β-bismuthene using a reinforcement-learning framework that integrates a continuous Monte Carlo Tree Search with a simplex-based local optimizer. The optimized parameter sets reproduce first-principles lattice constants, cohesive energy, the equation of state, elastic constants, and phonon dispersion. We validate the models by performing thermal-conductivity calculations and uniaxial fracture simulations our findings confirm the reliability of the resulting models across multiple thermomechanical regimes. Comparison of the three best solutions reveals how differences in pairwise interactions, angular terms, and bond-order behavior govern phonon features and mechanical responses. We demonstrate an interpretable and computationally efficient potential for bismuthene and demonstrate a general reinforcement-learning strategy for developing bond-order models in emerging 2D materials.

deformation↗
DOE OSTI2025

A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago

Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.

Energy Use Intensity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Creating and Interfacing Designer Chemical Qubits (Final Technical Report)

The Final Technical Report describes a multi‑institution effort to develop programmable molecular qubits as precision quantum sensors for probing quantum materials. The team created chemically tunable qubits with optical addressability and practical coherence, integrated them into thin films and frameworks while preserving functionality, and established new magnetic and electric sensing methods suited to two‑dimensional magnets, ferroelectrics, and multiferroics. They also built computational models and spectroscopic tools that connect molecular design to material behavior, enabling access to quantum phenomena that previously could not be measured. The project produced more than 40 publications and trained a large cohort of graduate students and postdocs, strengthening the workforce and infrastructure needed for DOE's quantum information science mission.

2D Quantum Materials↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance Risk Model (PRisM) Proof-of-Concept: An Operational Decision Support Tool to Predict Crew Performance in Space from Available Performance Tests

The Crew Health and Performance-Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) team at NASA Glenn Research Center has developed a range of tools to evaluate astronaut health during spaceflight and to optimize the medical set required for missions. Among these, the Performance Risk Model (PRisM) represents a novel advancement, extending CHP-PRA’s focus beyond medical systems into the domain of human performance. Such tool could be pivotal in optimizing astronaut capabilities during space travel, thereby enhancing overall mission success. PRisM leverages data from well-established performance assessments conducted during previous crewed space missions and Earth analogs to strategically predict outcomes for planned tasks, even when direct performance testing has not been conducted for those specific tasks. To evaluate performance, PRisM references the various metrics outlined in NASA-STD-3001 and employs a methodology to integrate different performance scales. This framework analyzes the contribution of various human system task categories (HSTCs) to task execution and compares these contributions to the HSTCs’ involvement in other known tests. The model further employs a Monte Carlo simulation to sample performance scores from their distribution in operationally relevant tests such as those in Mulavara et al. (2018) and, by leveraging similarities in HSTC involvement, transfers this knowledge to actual mission tasks, such as those outlined in the "Human Exploration of Mars: Preliminary List of Crew Tasks”. The current PRisM proof-of-concept includes analyses of the impact of exercise and specific medications on astronauts’ performance, with provisions to incorporate additional countermeasures as data becomes available. Furthermore, the tool is customizable to include any system necessary to fully encompass the domain of human systems and can be adapted to evaluate performance for any spaceflight activities as requested by operational stakeholders. PRisM has the potential to assist the Human Research Program in exploring the capabilities trade space for optimized crew performance.

performance modeling↗