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DOE OSTI2025

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A functional form for liquid scintillator pulse shapes

Digitization of detector signals enables analysis of the original waveform to extract timing, particle identification, and energy deposition information. Here we present the use of analytical functions based on sigmoids to model and fit such pulse shapes from liquid organic scintillators, though the method should also be applicable to other detector systems. Neutron and gamma interactions in NE213 detectors were digitized from the phototube anode and fit using a sigmoid-based function. The acuity of the fit in extracting timing information and performing neutron-gamma pulse-shape discrimination are presented and discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the composition of the $K$$^{*}_{0}$(700) state with π ± $K$$^{0}_{S}$ correlations at the LHC

The first measurements of femtoscopic correlations with the particle pair combinations π ± $K$$^{0}_{S}$ in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are reported by the ALICE experiment. Using the femtoscopic approach, it is shown that it is possible to study the elusive $K$$^{*}_{0}$(700) particle that has been considered a tetraquark candidate for over forty years. Source and final-state interaction parameters are extracted by fitting a model assuming a Gaussian source to the experimentally measured two-particle correlation functions. The final-state interaction in the π ± $K$$^{0}_{S}$ system is modeled through a resonant scattering amplitude, defined in terms of a mass and a coupling parameter, The extracted mass and Breit–Wigner width, derived from the coupling parameter, of the final-state interaction are found to be consistent with previous measurements of the $K$$^{*}_{0}$ (700). The small value and increase of the correlation strength with increasing source size support the hypothesis that the $K$$^{*}_{0}$(700) is a four-quark state, i.e. a tetraquark state of the form (q 1 , $\bar{q}$ 2 , q 3 , $\bar{q}$ 3 ) in which q 1 , q 2 and q 3 indicate the flavor of the valence quarks of the π and $K$$^{0}_{S}$. This latter trend is also confirmed via a simple geometric model that assumes a tetraquark structure of the $K$$^{*}_{0}$(700) resonance.

13 TeV pp collisions↗

DOE OSTI2020

The maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco affects CO2 refixation in temperate broadleaved forest trees

Mesophyll resistance to CO 2 diffusion (rm) and the maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vcmax) affect photosynthetic rates, and can potentially also influence the percentage of respiratory and photorespiratory CO 2 being refixated (Pr) by mesophyll cells. Here we investigated how various leaf anatomical traits (e.g. leaf mass per area [LMA] and leaf dry matter content [LDMC]) influenced rm in leaves of mature forest trees. We further explored how rm and Vcmax in turn affected Pr, and if these traits varied among species and leaves along a light gradient. Photosynthetic CO 2 response of leaves grown in high-, medium-, and low-light environments was measured, from Pinus sylvestris [Scots pine], Picea abies [Norway spruce], Quercus robur [English oak], and Betula pendula [Silver birch] in southern Sweden. A modified version of the Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry model was fitted to the leaf gas exchange data to estimate Vcmax, rm and Pr. We found that of all leaf traits measured, only LMA for Q. robur was significantly higher in leaves from high-light environments. When comparing species, both rm and LMA were significantly higher in the conifers, and rm had a negative correlation with Vcmax. We found that Pr was similar between different species and functional groups, with an average of 73.2% (and SD of ±10.4) across all species. There was a strong, positive correlation between Pr and Vcmax in broadleaves, and we hypothesise that this effect might derive from a higher CO 2 drawdown near Rubisco in leaves with high Vcmax.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using electronic health record metadata to predict housing instability amongst veterans

Housing instability is considered a significant life stressor and preemptive screening should be applied to identify those at risk for homelessness as early as possible so that they can be targeted for specialized care. We developed models to classify patient outcomes for an established VA Homelessness Screening Clinical Reminder (HSCR), which identifies housing instability, in the two months prior to its administration. Logistic Regression and Random Forest models were fit to classify responses using the last 18 months of document activity. We measure concentration of risk across stratifications of predicted probability and observe an enriched likelihood of finding confirmed false negative responses from veterans with diagnosed housing instability. Positive responses were 34 times more likely to be detected within the top 1 % of patients predicted at risk than from those randomly selected. There is a 1 in 4 chance of detecting false negatives within the top 1 % of predicted risk. Machine learning methods can classify between episodes of housing instability using a data-driven approach that does not rely on variables curated from domain experts. This method has the potential to improve clinicians’ ability to identify veterans who are experiencing housing instability but are not captured by HSCR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parameter-free prediction of phase transition in PbTiO 3 through combination of quantum mechanics and statistical mechanics

Thermodynamics of ferroelectric materials and their ferroelectric to paraelectric (FE-PE) transitions is commonly described by the phenomenological Landau theory and more recently by effective Hamiltonian and various potentials, all with model parameters fitted to experimental or theoretical data. Here, in this work, we show that the zentropy theory, which considers the total entropy of a system as a weighted sum of entropies of configurations that the system may experience and the statistical entropy among the configurations, can predict the FE-PE transition without fitting parameters. For PbTiO 3 , the configurations are identified as the FE configurations with 90- or 180° domain walls in addition to the ground state FE configuration without domain wall. With the domain wall energies predicted from first-principles based on density functional theory in the literature as the only inputs, the FE-PE transition for PbTiO 3 is predicted showing remarkable agreement with experiments, unveiling the microscopic fundamentals of the transition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lignin-Derived Magnetic Activated Carbons for Effective Methylene Blue Removal

Large-scale environmental remediation of polluted water requires an effective and recyclable adsorbent produced from an abundant, low-cost, and renewable feedstock via a simple processing procedure. In this work, we demonstrate that lignin-derived magnetic activated carbons (mACs) uniquely satisfy these five criteria for (i) high-performance adsorption, (ii) high regeneration efficiency, (iii) feedstock economic and environmental viability, (iv) single-step processing and (v) large-scale production. The mACs are synthesized via an efficient co-carbonization and activation with simultaneous impregnation of ferric sulfate. Here, the Langmuir model closely fits the adsorption of methylene blue (MB) by mACs within the temperature range of 298–323 K, where the adsorption capacity increases as temperature increases. This capacity increased from 55.0 mg g -1 to 220.2 mg g -1 with the presence of magnetic nanoparticles. In addition, the magnetite nanoparticles on the ACs surface significantly improve its recycling ability with the removal percentage above 95% after four cycles for 5:1 mAC.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Downstream Separation of Formic Acid with Anion-Exchange Resin from Electrocatalytic Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Conversion: Adsorption, Kinetics, and Equilibrium Modeling

The electrocatalytic carbon dioxide reduction reaction (CO 2 RR) that produces liquid formic acid (FA) is one potential route to minimize the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere by utilizing CO 2 as a feedstock. However, one of the main disadvantages of this route is the high energy demand required for purification through conventional distillation. This method of purification has been shown to result in a large carbon footprint in life-cycle analysis (LCA). Therefore, finding an alternative purification technique that can integrate with an electrochemical CO 2 RR process with the potential to lower the carbon footprint would be of great interest. Under the experimental conditions of the CO 2 RR, FA remains in its basic form as the formate anion in the catholyte. Anion exchange resins with their basic properties can separate the formate anion from the catholyte mixture as an alternative to energy intensive distillation. In this work, three anion exchange resins with increasing basicity order: Amberlite IRA-96 < Amberlite IRA-910 < Ambersep 900 are tested to separate FA in the presence of aqueous solution of potassium bicarbonate catholyte with varying levels of resin and FA. Kinetics and equilibrium studies data for the FA adsorption are interpreted using several kinetics and isotherm models. The kinetics data fit well with a pseudo-first-order model at high initial FA concentrations and a pseudo-second-order model at low initial FA concentrations. The experimental data can be best explained with the Freundlich isotherm model. The fitted results show that strongly basic Ambersep 900 is more effective at separating FA, with a maximum adsorption capacity of 336.7 mg/g compared to Amberlite IRA-96 (275.2 mg/g) and Amberlite IRA-910 (209.2 mg/g) in neutral water. However, weakly basic Amberlite IRA-96 (110.8 mg/g) can separate FA more efficiently from potassium bicarbonate catholyte than Amberlite IRA-910 (99.9 mg/g) and Ambersep 900 (40.0 mg/g). As a result, competitive adsorption occurs in the presence of potassium bicarbonate catholyte, but the formic acid adsorption capacity is still sufficient for adequate separation.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reversible Reactions, Mesh Size, and Segmental Dynamics Control Penetrant Diffusion in Ethylene Vitrimers

The diffusion of two aromatic dyes with nearly identical sizes was measured in ethylene vitrimers with precise linker lengths and borate ester cross-links using fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP). One dye possessed a reactive hydroxyl group, while the second was inert. The reaction of the hydroxyl group with the network is slow relative to the hopping times of the dye, resulting in a large slowdown by a factor of 50 for a reactive probe molecule. A kinetic model was fit to the fluorescence intensity data to determine rate constants for the reversible reaction of the dye from the network, which confirms the role of slow reaction kinetics. A second network cross-linker was also investigated with a substituted boronic ester showing ∼10,000 times faster exchange kinetics. In this system, the two dyes show the same diffusion coefficient, as the reaction is no longer the rate-limiting step. The role of dense meshes on small and large dyes is also discussed in the context of the existing theories. Finally, these results highlight the potential of dynamic networks to control penetrant transport through synergistic effects of the mesh size, dynamic bond kinetics, and penetrant–network interactions.

confinement↗

DOE OSTI2024

In Situ X-ray Scattering Reveals Coarsening Rates of Superlattices Self-Assembled from Electrostatically Stabilized Metal Nanocrystals Depend Nonmonotonically on Driving Force

Self-assembly of colloidal nanocrystals (NCs) into superlattices (SLs) is an appealing strategy to design hierarchically organized materials with promising functionalities. Mechanistic studies are still needed to uncover the design principles for SL self-assembly, but such studies have been difficult to perform due to the fast time and short length scales of NC systems. To address this challenge, we developed an apparatus to directly measure the evolving phases in situ and in real time of an electrostatically stabilized Au NC solution before, during, and after it is quenched to form SLs using small-angle X-ray scattering. By developing a quantitative model, we fit the time-dependent scattering patterns to obtain the phase diagram of the system and the kinetics of the colloidal and SL phases as a function of varying quench conditions. The extracted phase diagram is consistent with particles whose interactions are short in range relative to their diameter. We find the degree of SL order is primarily determined by fast (subsecond) initial nucleation and growth kinetics, while coarsening at later times depends nonmonotonically on the driving force for self-assembly. We validate these results by direct comparison with simulations and use them to suggest dynamic design principles to optimize the crystallinity within a finite time window. The combination of this measurement methodology, quantitative analysis, and simulation should be generalizable to elucidate and better control the microscopic self-assembly pathways of a wide range of bottom-up assembled systems and architectures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ecosystem Water‐Saving Timescale Varies Spatially With Typical Drydown Length

Abstract Stomatal optimization theory is a commonly used framework for modeling how plants regulate transpiration in response to the environment. Most stomatal optimization models assume that plants instantaneously optimize a reward function such as carbon gain. However, plants are expected to optimize over longer timescales given the rapid environmental variability they encounter. There are currently no observational constraints on these timescales. Here, a new stomatal model is developed and is used to analyze the timescales over which stomatal closure is optimized. The proposed model assumes plants maximize carbon gain subject to the constraint that they cannot draw down soil moisture below a critical value. The reward is integrated over time, after being weighted by a discount factor that represents the timescale ( τ ) that a plant considers when optimizing stomatal conductance to save water. The model is simple enough to be analytically solvable, which allows the value of τ to be inferred from observations of stomatal behavior under known environmental conditions. The model is fitted to eddy covariance data in a range of ecosystems, finding the value of τ that best predicts the dynamics of evapotranspiration at each site. Across 82 sites, the climate metrics with the strongest correlation to τ are measures of the average number of dry days between rainfall events. Values of τ are similar in magnitude to the longest such dry period encountered in an average year. The results here shed light on which climate characteristics shape spatial variations in ecosystem‐level water use strategy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Insights Into Seismicity Associated With Flexibly Operating Enhanced Geothermal System From Real‐Time Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) have the capacity to broaden the accessible resource pool for geothermal power generation. Traditionally viewed as a “baseload” resource, their flexible operation might also enable dispatchable load‐following generation and long‐term energy storage, aligning them with the evolving landscape of decarbonized electricity systems. However, increasing permeability and extracting energy during EGS operations can induce microseismic events; for many prior EGS efforts, some associated seismicity has been observed. While energetically beneficial, the flexibility of EGS operations prompts our inquiry into whether new types of operations will yield previously unseen seismicity patterns. We demonstrate the use of distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) with real‐time edge computing to monitor seismicity during a pilot test of a cyclically operated EGS facility at the Blue Mountain geothermal field. Our focus lies in uncovering seismicity insights from the real‐time microseismic catalog, particularly during load‐following dispatchability tests simulating flexible EGS operation. Here, we find that variations in pore pressure consistently correlate with seismicity, and that controlling pressure cycles during flexible operations appears to constrain microseismic activity during subsequent cycles. The spatio‐temporal evolution of microseismic clouds recorded during cyclic injection cycles fits diffusive models over our available observation period. Additionally, seismicity elevation lags behind pore pressure increases, likely due to pressure diffusion to the fracture system boundary. Through real‐time monitoring, we offer novel insights into seismicity associated with flexibly operating EGS. Our findings suggest that leveraging DAS and edge computing can inform EGS operations and help mitigate induced seismicity.

Chamarczuk, Michal [Rice Univ., Houston, TX (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2024

Disentangling top-down drivers of mortality underlying diel population dynamics of Prochlorococcus in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

Photosynthesis fuels primary production at the base of marine food webs. Yet, in many surface ocean ecosystems, diel-driven primary production is tightly coupled to daily loss. This tight coupling raises the question: which top-down drivers predominate in maintaining persistently stable picocyanobacterial populations over longer time scales? Motivated by high-frequency surface water measurements taken in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), we developed multitrophic models to investigate bottom-up and top-down mechanisms underlying the balanced control of Prochlorococcus populations. Here, we find that incorporating photosynthetic growth with viral- and predator-induced mortality is sufficient to recapitulate daily oscillations of Prochlorococcus abundances with baseline community abundances. In doing so, we infer that grazers in this environment function as the predominant top-down factor despite high standing viral particle densities. The model-data fits also reveal the ecological relevance of light-dependent viral traits and non-canonical factors to cellular loss. Finally, we leverage sensitivity analyses to demonstrate how variation in life history traits across distinct oceanic contexts, including variation in viral adsorption and grazer clearance rates, can transform the quantitative and even qualitative importance of top-down controls in shaping Prochlorococcus population dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identifying the secondary electron cutoff in ultraviolet photoemission spectra for work function measurements of non-ideal surfaces

Abstract Absolute values of work functions can be determined in ultraviolet photoemission spectroscopy (UPS) by measuring the minimum kinetic energy of secondary electrons generated by a known photon energy. However, some samples can produce spectra that are difficult to interpret due to additional intensity below the true secondary electron cutoff. Disordered absorbates on elemental metals add small intensity below the onset for the transition metal surfaces studied, which can be attributed to energy losses after photoelectrons are generated. In contrast, spectra from WO 3−x films can produce multiple onsets with comparable intensity which do not fit this model. False onsets (in the context of work function measurements) can be minimized by optimizing experimental detection parameters including limiting analyzer acceptance angles and pass energy. True work functions can be identified by examining the onsets as the sample bias is varied.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

The putative center in NGC 1052

Context. Many active galaxies harbor powerful relativistic jets, however, the detailed mechanisms of their formation and acceleration remain poorly understood.Aims. To investigate the area of jet acceleration and collimation with the highest available angular resolution, we study the innermost region of the bipolar jet in the nearby low-ionization nuclear emission-line region (LINER) galaxy NGC 1052.Methods. We combined observations of NGC 1052 taken with VLBA, GMVA, and EHT over one week in the spring of 2017. Our study is focused on the size and continuum spectrum of the innermost region containing the central engine and the footpoints of both jets. We employed a synchrotron-self absorption model to fit the continuum radio spectrum and we combined the size measurements from close to the central engine out to ∼1 pc to study the jet collimation.Results. For the first time, NGC 1052 was detected with the EHT, providing a size of the central region in-between both jet bases of 43 μas perpendicular to the jet axes, corresponding to just around 250 RS (Schwarzschild radii). This size estimate supports previous studies of the jets expansion profile which suggest two breaks of the profile at around 3 × 103 RS and 1 × 104 RS distances to the core. Furthermore, we estimated the magnetic field to be 1.25 Gauss at a distance of 22 μas from the central engine by fitting a synchrotron-self absorption spectrum to the innermost emission feature, which shows a spectral turn-over at ∼130 GHz. Assuming a purely poloidal magnetic field, this implies an upper limit on the magnetic field strength at the event horizon of 2.6 × 104 Gauss, which is consistent with previous measurements.Conclusions. The complex, low-brightness, double-sided jet structure in NGC 1052 makes it a challenge to detect the source at millimeter (mm) wavelengths. However, our first EHT observations have demonstrated that detection is possible up to at least 230 GHz. This study offers a glimpse through the dense surrounding torus and into the innermost central region, where the jets are formed. This has enabled us to finally resolve this region and provide improved constraints on its expansion and magnetic field strength.Key words: methods: observational / techniques: high angular resolution / techniques: interferometric / galaxies: active / galaxies: jets / galaxies: Seyfert⋆⋆ NASA Hubble Fellowship Program, Einstein Fellow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Frequency-domain hot-wire sensor and 3D model for thermal conductivity measurements of reactive and corrosive materials at high temperatures

High temperature solids and liquids are becoming increasingly important in next-generation energy and manufacturing systems that seek higher efficiencies and lower emissions. Accurate measurements of thermal conductivity at high temperatures are required for the modeling and design of these systems, but commonly employed time-domain measurements can have errors from convection, corrosion, and ambient temperature fluctuations. Here, we describe the development of a frequency-domain hot-wire technique capable of accurately measuring the thermal conductivity of solid and molten compounds from room temperature up to 800 °C. Therefore, by operating in the frequency-domain, we can lock into the harmonic thermal response of the material and reject the influence of ambient temperature fluctuations, and we can keep the probed volume below 1 µl to minimize convection. The design of the microfabricated hot-wire sensor, electrical systems, and insulating wire coating to protect against corrosion is covered in detail. Furthermore, we discuss the development of a full three-dimensional multilayer thermal model that accounts for both radial conduction into the sample and axial conduction along the wire and the effect of wire coatings. The 3D, multilayer model facilitates the measurement of small sample volumes important for material development. A sensitivity analysis and an error propagation calculation of the frequency-domain thermal model are performed to demonstrate what factors are most important for thermal conductivity measurements. Finally, we show thermal conductivity measurements including model data fitting on gas (argon), solid (sulfur), and molten substances over a range of temperatures.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of lithium as a tritium storage medium for betavoltaics

Lithium foils were demonstrated to absorb surrogate protium for tritium-powered betavoltaics. 20μm thick lithium foils were hole-punched from a ribbon of electrodeposited lithium on copper foil. The lithium foils were loaded with hydrogen in a custom Sievert apparatus where the pressure drop showed full hydriding at a hydrogen pressure of 2 bar and at all loading temperatures above the lithium melting point at 190, 200, 225, 250, and 300. Lithium hydride formation was confirmed with Raman spectroscopy after hydrogen loading. The kinetics of experimental hydride formation was compared to the diffusion-limited Mintz–Bloch model. While the Mintz–Bloch model showed good fit with the experimental loadings, the model overpredicted the loading kinetics starting at 250 °C and at higher temperatures. In conclusion, The overprediction was either caused by lithium hydride outgassing due to some reduction with some residual lithium hydroxide created from brief air exposure when sealing the lithium in the reactor or a transition from diffusion-limited hydride growth to surface or metal–hydride interface-limited hydride growth.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validation of galvanomagnetic and thermomagnetic transport measurements using Standard Reference Material 3451

In the “method of four coefficients,” electrical resistivity (ρ), Seebeck coefficient (S), Hall coefficient (RH), and Nernst coefficient (Q) of a material are measured and typically fit or modeled with theoretical expressions based on Boltzmann transport theory to glean experimental insights into features of electronic structure and/or charge carrier scattering mechanisms in materials. Although well-defined and readily available reference materials exist for validating measurements of ρ and S, none currently exists for R H or Q. We show that measurements of all four transport coefficients—ρ, S, R H , and Q—can be validated using a single reference sample, namely, the low-temperature Seebeck coefficient Standard Reference Material® (SRM) 3451 (composition Bi 2 Te 3+x ) available from the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) without the need for inter-laboratory sample exchange. Here, R H and Q data for NIST SRM 3451 reported here for the temperature range 80–400 K complement the data already available for ρ and S and will therefore be of interest to researchers desiring to validate new or existing galvanomagnetic and thermomagnetic transport properties measurement systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗