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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Data-Driven Radiative Hydrodynamic Modeling of the 2014 March 29 X1.0 Solar Flare

Spectroscopic observations of solar flares provide critical diagnostics of the physical conditions in the flaring atmosphere. Some key features in observed spectra have not yet been accounted for in existing flare models. Here we report a data-driven simulation of the well-observed X1.0 flare on 2014 March 29 that can reconcile some well-known spectral discrepancies. We analyzed spectra of the flaring region from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) in Mg II hk, the Interferometric BIdimensional Spectropolarimeter at the Dunn Solar Telescope (DSTIBIS) in H(alpha) 6563A and Ca II 8542A, and the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscope Imager (RHESSI) in hard X-rays. We constructed a multithreaded flare loop model and used the electron flux inferred from RHESSI data as the input to the radiative hydrodynamic code RADYN to simulate the atmospheric response. We then synthesized various chromospheric emission lines and compared them with the IRIS and IBIS observations. In general, the synthetic intensities agree with the observed ones, especially near the northern footpoint of the flare. The simulated Mg II line profile has narrower wings than the observed one. This discrepancy can be reduced by using a higher microturbulent velocity (27 km/s) in a narrow chromospheric layer. In addition, we found that an increase of electron density in the upper chromosphere within a narrow height range of approx. 800 km below the transition region can turn the simulated Mg II line core into emission and thus reproduce the single peaked profile, which is a common feature in all IRIS flares.

Da Costa, Fatima Rubio↗

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling: A Case Study of Dry/Wet Extremes

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address deficiencies in numerical weather prediction and climate models due to improper treatment of L-A interactions, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process-level. In this study, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts oflocalland-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of2006-7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet regimes of this region, along with the behavior and accuracy of different land-PBL scheme couplings under these conditions. In addition, we examine the impact of improved specification ofland surface states, anomalies, and fluxes that are obtained through the use of a hew optimization and uncertainty module in LIS, on the L-A coupling in WRF forecasts. Results demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to coupled model components in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and support of hydrological anomalies.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

THE FORMATION OF IRIS DIAGNOSTICS. VI. THE DIAGNOSTIC POTENTIAL OF THE C ii LINES AT 133.5 nm IN THE SOLAR ATMOSPHERE

We use 3D radiation magnetohydrodynamic models to investigate how the thermodynamic quantities in the simulation are encoded in observable quantities, thus exploring the diagnostic potential of the C ii 133.5 nm lines. We find that the line core intensity is correlated with the temperature at the formation height but the correlation is rather weak, especially when the lines are strong. The line core Doppler shift is a good measure of the line-of-sight velocity at the formation height. The line width is both dependent on the width of the absorption profile (thermal and non-thermal width) and an opacity broadening factor of 1.2–4 due to the optically thick line formation with a larger broadening for double peak profiles. The C ii 133.5 nm lines can be formed both higher and lower than the core of the Mg ii k line depending on the amount of plasma in the 14–50 kK temperature range. More plasma in this temperature range gives a higher C ii 133.5 nm formation height relative to the Mg ii k line core. The synthetic line profiles have been compared with Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph observations. The derived parameters from the simulated line profiles cover the parameter range seen in observations but, on average, the synthetic profiles are too narrow. We interpret this discrepancy as a combination of a lack of plasma at chromospheric temperatures in the simulation box and too small non-thermal velocities. The large differences in the distribution of properties between the synthetic profiles and the observed ones show that the C ii 133.5 nm lines are powerful diagnostics of the upper chromosphere and lower transition region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Three-dimensional modeling of beam emission spectroscopy measurements in fusion plasmas

One of the main diagnostic tools for measuring electron density profiles and the characteristics of long wavelength turbulent wave structures in fusion plasmas is beam emission spectroscopy (BES). The increasing number of BES systems necessitated an accurate and comprehensive simulation of BES diagnostics, which in turn motivated the development of the Rate Equations for Neutral Alkali-beam TEchnique (RENATE) simulation code that is the topic of this paper. RENATE is a modular, fully three-dimensional code incorporating all key features of BES systems from the atomic physics to the observation, including an advanced modeling of the optics. Thus RENATE can be used both in the interpretation of measured signals and the development of new BES systems. The most important components of the code have been successfully benchmarked against other simulation codes. The primary results have been validated against experimental data from the KSTAR tokamak.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U. S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of land surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL) temperature and moisture states and fluxes. In turn, these interactions regulate the strength of the connection between surface moisture and precipitation in a coupled system. To address deficiencies in numerical weather prediction and climate models due to improper treatment of L-A interactions, recent studies have focused on development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process-level. In this study, a diagnosis of the nature and impacts of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) during dry and wet extreme conditions is presented using a combination of models and observations during the summers of2006-7 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet regimes of this region, along with the behavior and accuracy of different land-PBL scheme couplings under these conditions. Results demonstrate how LoCo diagnostics can be applied to coupled model components in the context of their integrated impacts on the process-chain connecting the land surface to the PBL and support of hydrological anomalies.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

Towards Estimation of HIV-1 Date of Infection: A Time-Continuous IgG-Model Shows That Seroconversion Does Not Occur at the Midpoint between Negative and Positive Tests

Estimating date of infection for HIV-1-infected patients is vital for disease tracking and informed public health decisions, but is difficult to obtain because most patients have an established infection of unknown duration at diagnosis. Previous studies have used HIV-1-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels as measured by the IgG capture BED enzyme immunoassay (BED assay) to indicate if a patient was infected recently, but a time-continuous model has not been available. Therefore, we developed a logistic model of IgG production over time. We used previously published metadata from 792 patients for whom the HIV-1-specific IgG levels had been longitudinally measured using the BED assay. To account for patient variability, we used mixed effects modeling to estimate general population parameters. The typical patient IgG production rate was estimated at r = 6.72[approximate 95% CI 6.17,7.33]x10 -3 OD-n units day -1 , and the carrying capacity at K = 1.84[1.75,1.95] OD-n units, predicting how recently patients seroconverted in the interval Λ t = (31,711) days. Final model selection and validation was performed on new BED data from a population of 819 Swedish HIV-1 patients diagnosed in 2002–2010. On an appropriate subset of 350 patients, the best model parameterization had an accuracy of 94% finding a realistic seroconversion date. We found that seroconversion on average is at the midpoint between last negative and first positive HIV-1 test for patients diagnosed in prospective/cohort studies such as those included in the training dataset. In contrast, seroconversion is strongly skewed towards the first positive sample for patients identified by regular public health diagnostic testing as illustrated in the validation dataset. Our model opens the door to more accurate estimates of date of infection for HIV-1 patients, which may facilitate a better understanding of HIV-1 epidemiology on a population level and individualized prevention, such as guidance during contact tracing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Retrieval of wind temperature and pressure from single Doppler radar and a numerical model

A 4D data assimilation algorithm to obtain 3D wind and thermodynamic fields from radial velocities and a numerical model is derived. It is a blend of the continuous updating technique of Charney et al. (1969) and a diagnostic pressure and temperature retrieval technique suggested by Gal-Chen (1978). This model is tested only against model-generated data which are viewed as 'data observed from a real atmosphere'. A thermal bubble developing in a dry, neutral environment is simulated. The thermal recovery technique is found to be a necessary procedure to obtain successful data assimilation results. The present assimilation method is found to be capable of reducing the 'observational error' and making the assimilation run converge toward the control run. Without data insertion, errors in the nonobserved wind component are large.

Liou, Yu-Chieng↗

Small rocket flowfield diagnostic chambers

Instrumented and optically-accessible rocket chambers are being developed to be used for diagnostics of small rocket (less than 440 N thrust level) flowfields. These chambers are being tested to gather local fluid dynamic and thermodynamic flowfield data over a range of test conditions. This flowfield database is being used to better understand mixing and heat transfer phenomena in small rockets, influence the numerical modeling of small rocket flowfields, and characterize small rocket components. The diagnostic chamber designs include: a chamber design for gathering wall temperature profiles to be used as boundary conditions in a finite element heat flux model; a chamber design for gathering inner wall temperature and static pressure profiles; and optically-accessible chamber designs, to be used with a suite of laser-based diagnostics for gathering local species concentration, temperature, density, and velocity profiles. These chambers were run with gaseous hydrogen/gaseous oxygen (GH2/GO2) propellants, while subsequent versions will be run on liquid oxygen/hydrocarbon (LOX/HC) propellants. The purpose, design, and initial test results of these small rocket flowfield diagnostic chambers are summarized.

Morren, Sybil↗

Optical Diagnostic Imaging of Multi-Rocket Plume-Induced Base Flow Environments

Non-intrusive optical diagnostic imaging was used for the first time to visualize multi-rocket plume-induced reacting base flows to simulate launch vehicle ascent from sea-level to 250,000 ft. In particular, planar laser induced florescence (PLIF) and infrared (IR) imaging were implemented for the first time to visualize and quantify base flow and rocket plume environments from sub-scale, short-duration propulsion models within a shock tunnel facility. This report discusses the successful imaging diagnostic methods for capturing base flow features and dynamics as a function of altitude. Important base flow and plume features were captured with PLIF and IR diagnostics to develop a conceptual base flow physics model. This imaging data specifically provides insight into the Space Launch System vehicle core-stage and Exploration Upper Stage base environments and further validates short-duration ground test techniques and computational modeling.

Mehta, Manish↗

Coronal Diagnostic Experiment (CODEX)

Understanding solar wind sources and acceleration mechanisms is an overarching solar physics goal. Current models are highly under-constrained due to the limitations of the existing data, particularly in the ~3-10 Rs range. COronal Diagnostic Experiment (CODEX) is designed to deliver the first global, comprehensive data sets that will impose crucial constraints and answer targeted essential questions, including: Are there signatures of hot plasma released into the solar wind from previously closed fields? What are the velocities and temperatures of the density structures that are observed so ubiquitously within streamers and coronal holes? To provide these crucial measurements, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, in collaboration with the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, and Italian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) will develop a next-generation coronagraph for the International Space Station. This imaging coronagraph uses multiple filters to obtain simultaneous measurements of electron density, temperature, and velocity within a single instrument. This will be the first time all three have been measured simultaneously for this critical field-of-view, and CODEX achieves these measurements multiple times a day.

Jeff Newmark↗

Optical diagnostics with radiation trapping effect in low density and low temperature helium plasma

Low density (n{sub e} < 10{sup 11 }cm{sup −3}) and low temperature (T{sub e} < 10 eV) helium plasma was generated by hot filament discharge. Electron temperature and density of neutral helium plasma were measured by Langmuir probe and were determined by line intensity ratio method using optical emission spectroscopy with population modelings. Simple corona model and collisional-radiative (CR) model without consideration for radiation trapping effect are applied. In addition, CR model taking into account the radiation trapping effect (RTE) is adopted. The change of single line intensity ratio as a function of electron temperature and density were investigated when the RTE is included and excluded. The changes of multi line intensity ratios as a function of electron temperature were scanned for various radiative-excitation rate coefficients from the ground state and the helium gas pressures related with the RTE. Our CR modeling with RTE results in fairly better agreement of the spectroscopic diagnostics for the plasma temperature or density with the Langmuir probe measurements for various helium gas pressures than corona modeling and CR modeling without RTE.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Model Development for Multi-Component Fuel Vaporization and Flash Boiling

The objectives of this project are to improve the multi-component fuel droplet and film vaporization models used in internal combustion engine simulation, and to develop a comprehensive model to predict the characteristics of multi-component flash boiling spray. This work explores two approaches to fuel composition treatment for modeling multi-component fuel vaporization: one based on discretization and surrogates, and the other based on continuous thermodynamic distribution of fuel properties. The experimental data collected for model validation are done under three fuel form factors: droplet, spray, and thin film. The study on sprays also include experimentation under non-flash and flash boiling conditions, a phenomenon that enhances fuel vaporization. The main goals of this work are: Design and develop a multi-component fuel droplet and wall film vaporization model using both discrete and continuous thermodynamics methods. Design and develop an analytical model for multi-component flash boiling. Integrate the multi-component droplet and film model into multi-dimensional engine calculations to predict the fuel vaporization process under engine operation condition. Conduct multi-component droplet and fuel film vaporization experiments in a non-combusting chamber to verify the proposed vaporization models. Characterize flash boiling phenomena of multi-component fuel sprays by optical and laser diagnostic techniques. This report will detail the experimental setup and the numerical basis for developing a model to achieve the main goals listed above. Key features of observed multi-component fuel vaporization will be summarized at the end of each experimental sections, and corresponding model performance evaluation will be presented at the end of each model development section.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

On the processes generating latitudinal richness gradients: identifying diagnostic patterns and predictions

Many processes have been put forward to explain the latitudinal gradient in species richness. Here, we use a simulation model to examine four of the most common hypotheses and identify patterns that might be diagnostic of those four hypotheses. The hypotheses examined include (1) tropical niche conservatism, or the idea that the tropics are more diverse because a tropical clade origin has allowed more time for diversification in the tropics and has resulted in few species adapted to extra-tropical climates. (2) The productivity, or energetic constraints, hypothesis suggests that species richness is limited by the amount of biologically available energy in a region. (3) The tropical stability hypothesis argues that major climatic fluctuations and glacial cycles in extratropical regions have led to greater extinction rates and less opportunity for specialization relative to the tropics. (4) Finally, the speciation rates hypothesis suggests that the latitudinal richness gradient arises from a parallel gradient in rates of speciation. We found that tropical niche conservatism can be distinguished from the other three scenarios by phylogenies which are more balanced than expected, no relationship between mean root distance and richness across regions, and a homogeneous rate of speciation across clades and through time. The energy gradient, speciation gradient, and disturbance gradient scenarios all exhibited phylogenies which were more imbalanced than expected, showed a negative relationship between mean root distance and richness, and diversity-dependence of speciation rate estimates through time. Using Bayesian Analysis of Macroevolutionary Mixtures on the simulated phylogenies, we found that the relationship between speciation rates and latitude could distinguish among these three scenarios. We emphasize the importance of considering multiple hypotheses and focusing on diagnostic predictions instead of predictions that are consistent with more than one hypothesis.

biodiversity↗

SU-E-I-46: Sample-Size Dependence of Model Observers for Estimating Low-Contrast Detection Performance From CT Images

Purpose: Recently, task-based assessment of diagnostic CT systems has attracted much attention. Detection task performance can be estimated using human observers, or mathematical observer models. While most models are well established, considerable bias can be introduced when performance is estimated from a limited number of image samples. Thus, the purpose of this work was to assess the effect of sample size on bias and uncertainty of two channelized Hotelling observers and a template-matching observer. Methods: The image data used for this study consisted of 100 signal-present and 100 signal-absent regions-of-interest, which were extracted from CT slices. The experimental conditions included two signal sizes and five different x-ray beam current settings (mAs). Human observer performance for these images was determined in 2-alternative forced choice experiments. These data were provided by the Mayo clinic in Rochester, MN. Detection performance was estimated from three observer models, including channelized Hotelling observers (CHO) with Gabor or Laguerre-Gauss (LG) channels, and a template-matching observer (TM). Different sample sizes were generated by randomly selecting a subset of image pairs, (N=20,40,60,80). Observer performance was quantified as proportion of correct responses (PC). Bias was quantified as the relative difference of PC for 20 and 80 image pairs. Results: For n=100, all observer models predicted human performance across mAs and signal sizes. Bias was 23% for CHO (Gabor), 7% for CHO (LG), and 3% for TM. The relative standard deviation, σ(PC)/PC at N=20 was highest for the TM observer (11%) and lowest for the CHO (Gabor) observer (5%). Conclusion: In order to make image quality assessment feasible in the clinical practice, a statistically efficient observer model, that can predict performance from few samples, is needed. Our results identified two observer models that may be suited for this task.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Action-angle formulation of generalized, orbit-based, fast-ion diagnostic weight functions

Due to the usually complicated and anisotropic nature of the fast-ion distribution function, diagnostic velocity-space weight functions, which indicate the sensitivity of a diagnostic to different fast-ion velocities, are used to facilitate the analysis of experimental data. Additionally, when velocity-space weight functions are discretized, a linear equation relating the fast-ion density and the expected diagnostic signal is formed. In a technique known as velocity-space tomography, many measurements can be combined to create an ill-conditioned system of linear equations that can be solved using various computational methods. However, when velocity-space weight functions (which by definition ignore spatial dependencies) are used, velocity-space tomography is restricted, both by the accuracy of its forward model and also by the availability of spatially overlapping diagnostic measurements. In this work, we extend velocity-space weight functions to a full 6D generalized coordinate system and then show how to reduce them to a 3D orbit-space without loss of generality using an action-angle formulation. Moreover, we show how diagnostic orbit-weight functions can be used to infer the full fast-ion distribution function, i.e., orbit tomography. In depth derivations of orbit weight functions for the neutron, neutral particle analyzer, and fast-ion D-α diagnostics are also shown

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Entropy removal of medical diagnostics

Shannon entropy is a core concept in machine learning and information theory, particularly in decision tree modeling. To date, no studies have extensively and quantitatively applied Shannon entropy in a systematic way to quantify the entropy of clinical situations using diagnostic variables (true and false positives and negatives, respectively). Decision tree representations of medical decision-making tools can be generated using diagnostic variables found in literature and entropy removal can be calculated for these tools. This concept of clinical entropy removal has significant potential for further use to bring forth healthcare innovation, such as quantifying the impact of clinical guidelines and value of care and applications to Emergency Medicine scenarios where diagnostic accuracy in a limited time window is paramount. This analysis was done for 623 diagnostic tools and provided unique insights into their utility. For studies that provided detailed data on medical decision-making algorithms, bootstrapped datasets were generated from source data to perform comprehensive machine learning analysis on these algorithms and their constituent steps, which revealed a novel and thorough evaluation of medical diagnostic algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Theoretical level energies, radiative lifetimes and transitions in W IX

The atomic states of the W IX (W{sup 8+}) tungsten ion lying below the W{sup 9+} ionisation threshold have been studied theoretically, employing the multiconfiguration Dirac–Hartree–Fock method with configuration interaction. The level electronic structures and their energies are presented. The electric dipole (E1), magnetic dipole (M1), electric quadrupole (E2), and magnetic quadrupole (M2) radiative transitions have been computed in order to calculate the radiative lifetimes of given states. Transition wavelengths, energies, and decay rates are also presented for selected high-intensity E1 transitions. The configuration interaction method was applied to estimate electron correlation effects. The aim of the present research was to fill a lack of atomic data for low-charged tungsten ions, which may be useful in low-temperature plasma diagnostics and may form the base for collisional–radiative modelling of spectra for low-charged tungsten ions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗