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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,171 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

3DBFSVBF (3D BatFinder Smart Video BioFilter and Multi-class BatFinder Smart Video BioFilter) [SWR-22-88]

Bats are notoriously difficult to study, therefore, identifying specific behavioral trends and the precise environmental conditions at the time of collision requires a monitoring solution that can reliably collect relevant data. To date, thermal infrared video surveillance has been extensively applied to study bats and has proven to be a powerful yet cumbersome tool. Current analytical approaches are time consuming because data processing data has not been fully automated. In the past, steps have been taken to record avian and bat activity in conjunction with complicated image processing techniques that separate species from other moving objects within the field of view (i.e. clouds and portions of the wind turbine). Once the videos are collected, the post-processing does not allow real time monitoring and identification, leading to a delay in both studying the behavior of these species and determining the effectiveness of any impact reduction strategy being studied. Moreover, object identification capability is lacking, thus limiting the usefulness of video data. To resolve these issues, we are using open source 3D computer vision and machine learning techniques allowing for automatic detection of objects in real-time with the ability to correlate these objects with environmental variables and recording the flight paths of each object. The machine learning has been trained on 3D data and allows for automated real-time data collection, identification and tracking, thereby eliminating the need for long and tedious post-analysis processing of the videos. This machine learning model is an added feature to the previous BatFinder Smart Video BioFilter and increases the accuracy of that systems classification by increasing the accuracy of identifying bats (90% accuracy) and insects (69% accuracy) to a 97% accuracy. There are two object classifier machine learning models, Binary and multi-classification. Binary object classifier labeled BatFinder_Smart_Video_BioFilter.h5 distinguishes between biological objects and non-biological objects. The main goal of this object classifier is to ignore the turbine blades while detecting biological object flying withing the rotor swept area of the turbine. Non-biological objects have a probability of 0 and biological objects have a probability of 1. Multi-classifier labeled Multiclass_BatFinder_Smart_Video_BioFilter.h5 distinguishes between bats, birds, insects and non-biological.

Yarbrough, John↗
DOE OSTI2020

Developing Flexible, Networked Lighting Control Systems That Reliably Save Energy in California Buildings

An important strategy to meet California's ambitious energy efficiency goals is to use innovative wireless communications, embedded sensors, data analytics and controls to significantly reduce lighting energy use in commercial buildings. This project developed a suite of networked lighting solutions to further this goal. The technologies include a platform for low-cost sensing, distributed intelligence and communications, the “PermaMote,” which is a self-powered sensor and controller for lighting applications. The project team also developed a task ambient daylighting system that integrates sensors with data-driven daylighting control using an open communication interface, called the “Readings-At-Desk” (RAD) system. To address the problem of building occupants being confused about how to operate traditional lighting control systems, the research team created content that could be the basis for a user interface standard for lighting controls. Finally, to address the difficulty of ensuring that advanced lighting control systems actually deliver their promised energy savings, the project team developed a new method for evaluating and specifying lighting systems’ performance. The research team validated these technologies in the laboratory, showing significant lighting energy savings, up to 73% for the PermaMote sensor system from occupancy control and daylight dimming features, compared to the same light source (LED replacement lamps) operated via simple on/off scheduling. The project team also developed a proposed standard lighting data model and user interface elements, which were contributed to the ANSI Lighting Systems Committee (C137) for standardization. Existing data models are incomplete and inconsistent, whereas the lighting-specific data model developed here is clear and comprehensive, to serve as a starting point for creating common, universally agreed upon semantic definitions of key lighting parameters, to promote interoperability. For the task on verifiable performance of lighting systems, the project team developed a more effective metric for capturing the actual energy impact of a lighting system over time — the energy usage intensity (kWh/ft2/year). Three commercial lighting systems were tested in FLEXLAB® using this new metric, and the tests show a wide range in the accuracy of the self-reported energy-use metric, from 0.5% to 28% error compared to direct measurement of lighting energy using dedicated submeters. Overall, the project team estimates that these advanced technologies can reduce California office lighting energy use by 20% (above and beyond normal advanced lighting controls mandated by Title 24), resulting in about 1,600 GWh/year in savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

SAGE Intrusion Detection System: Sensitivity Analysis Guided Explainability for Machine Learning.

This report details the results of a three-fold investigation of sensitivity analysis (SA) for machine learning (ML) explainability (MLE): (1) the mathematical assessment of the fidelity of an explanation with respect to a learned ML model, (2) quantifying the trustworthiness of a prediction, and (3) the impact of MLE on the efficiency of end-users through multiple users studies. We focused on the cybersecurity domain as the data is inherently non-intuitive. As ML is being using in an increasing number of domains, including domains where being wrong can elicit high consequences, MLE has been proposed as a means of generating trust in a learned ML models by end users. However, little analysis has been performed to determine if the explanations accurately represent the target model and they themselves should be trusted beyond subjective inspection. Current state-of-the-art MLE techniques only provide a list of important features based on heuristic measures and/or make certain assumptions about the data and the model which are not representative of the real-world data and models. Further, most are designed without considering the usefulness by an end-user in a broader context. To address these issues, we present a notion of explanation fidelity based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory. We find that all of the investigated MLE explainability methods produce explanations that are incongruent with the ML model that is being explained. This is because they make critical assumptions about feature independence and linear feature interactions for computational reasons. We also find that in deployed, explanations are rarely used due to a variety of reason including that there are several other tools which are trusted more than the explanations and there is little incentive to use the explanations. In the cases when the explanations are used, we found that there is the danger that explanations persuade the end users to wrongly accept false positives and false negatives. However, ML model developers and maintainers find the explanations more useful to help ensure that the ML model does not have obvious biases. In light of these findings, we suggest a number of future directions including developing MLE methods that directly model non-linear model interactions and including design principles that take into account the usefulness of explanations to the end user. We also augment explanations with a set of trustworthiness measures that measure geometric aspects of the data to determine if the model output should be trusted.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

“Thought I’d Share First” and Other Conspiracy Theory Tweets from the COVID-19 Infodemic: Exploratory Study

Background: The COVID-19 outbreak has left many people isolated within their homes; these people are turning to social media for news and social connection, which leaves them vulnerable to believing and sharing misinformation. Health-related misinformation threatens adherence to public health messaging, and monitoring its spread on social media is critical to understanding the evolution of ideas that have potentially negative public health impacts. Objective: The aim of this study is to use Twitter data to explore methods to characterize and classify four COVID-19 conspiracy theories and to provide context for each of these conspiracy theories through the first 5 months of the pandemic. Methods: We began with a corpus of COVID-19 tweets (approximately 120 million) spanning late January to early May 2020. We first filtered tweets using regular expressions (n=1.8 million) and used random forest classification models to identify tweets related to four conspiracy theories. Our classified data sets were then used in downstream sentiment analysis and dynamic topic modeling to characterize the linguistic features of COVID-19 conspiracy theories as they evolve over time. Results: Analysis using model-labeled data was beneficial for increasing the proportion of data matching misinformation indicators. Random forest classifier metrics varied across the four conspiracy theories considered (F1 scores between 0.347 and 0.857); this performance increased as the given conspiracy theory was more narrowly defined. We showed that misinformation tweets demonstrate more negative sentiment when compared to non-misinformation tweets and that theories evolve over time, incorporating details from unrelated conspiracy theories as well as real-world events. Conclusions: Although we focus here on health-related misinformation, this combination of approaches is not specific to public health and is valuable for characterizing misinformation in general, which is an important first step in creating targeted messaging to counteract its spread. Initial messaging should aim to preempt generalized misinformation before it becomes widespread, while later messaging will

5g↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Impact of Classical and General Relativistic Obliquity Precessions on the Habitability of Circumstellar Neutron Stars’ Planets

Recently, it has been shown that rocky planets orbiting neutron stars can be habitable under plausible circumstances. If a distant, point-like source of visible light, such as a Sun-like main-sequence star or the gravitationally-lensed accretion disk of a supermassive black hole is present, possible temporal variations Δε{sub p}(t) of the planet’s axial tilt ε {sub p} to the ecliptic plane should be included in the overall habitability budget since the obliquity determines the insolation at a given latitude on a body’ s surface. I point out that, for rather generic initial spin–orbit initial configurations, general relativistic and classical spin variations induced by the post-Newtonian de Sitter and Lense–Thirring components of the field of the host neutron star and by its pull to the planetary oblateness J{sub 2}{sup p} may induce huge and very fast variations of ε {sub p} that would likely have an impact on the habitability of such worlds. In particular, for a planet’s distance of, say, 0.005 au from a 1.4 M {sub ⊙} neutron star corresponding to an orbital period P {sub b} = 0.109 day, obliquity shifts Δε {sub p} as large as ε{sub p}{sup max}−ε{sub p}{sup min}≃50{sup ∘}--100{sup ∘} over characteristic timescales as short as 10 days (J{sub 2}{sup p}) to 3 Myr (Lense–Thirring) may occur for arbitrary orientations of the orbital and spin angular momenta L, S {sub ns}, S {sub p} of the planet-neutron star system. In view of this feature of their spins, I dub such hypothetical planets as “nethotrons.”.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Novel artificial neural network model for instantaneous power losses and operational efficiency mapping of MW-scale vanadium redox flow battery for improved technoeconomic analysis

A novel data-driven, machine-learning-based method for modeling the instantaneous power losses of a distribution-sited 2 MW/8MWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB), a grid-scale electrochemical storage technology, is introduced and compared against benchmark empirical modeling approaches, including symmetric and asymmetric models, as well as a recent convex hull modeling approach. The novel loss modeling method introduces several advantages over the benchmark models and over simplistic efficiency estimates, the most significant of which is that the model can accurately reflect the stepwise and non-linear parasitic losses associated with the duty cycles of mechanical auxiliary systems like pump motor drives and blower fans. Residuals of the models are compared; the proposed data driven model features significantly improved accuracy over the benchmark models. The model's coefficient of determination is also improved relative to that of the benchmark models. Furthermore, a novel method for visualization of operational efficiency of the grid-scale storage technology is introduced. To demonstrate the benefits of the novel data-driven method for modeling the VRFB, the benchmark models and the proposed models are embedded into an Open DSS distribution network model to study two applications of the grid-scale electrical storage system: load leveling for grid support and energy arbitrage. This article demonstrates that the accuracy of the instantaneous power loss model significantly impacts the understanding of the state of charge of the VRFB. In turn, the accuracy of the efficiency modeling of the VRFB impacts the understanding of the potential economic value and technical benefits to the distribution network operators. In conclusion, the presented power loss modeling approach is, therefore, highly relevant for utility-stakeholders, battery asset owners, system engineers, system designers, and financial planners interested in evaluating or optimizing the operation of grid-scale VRFBs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

The root-zone soil moisture spectrum in a mediterranean ecosystem

Storage of water within soil pores of the root zone introduce memory effects in the dynamics of soil moisture that are considerably longer than the integral timescale of many atmospheric processes. Thus, hydro-climatic states can be “sustained” through land-surface heat and water vapor fluxes primarily because they can “feed off” on this long-term soil moisture memory. Root-zone soil moisture memory is only but one feature characterizing the spectrum of soil moisture dynamics, which is analyzed here using a combination of long-term measurements and models. In particular, the spectrum of root-zone soil moisture content in a Mediterranean ecosystem is examined using 14-years of half-hourly measurements. A distinguishing hydro-climatic feature in such ecosystems is that sources (mainly rainfall) and sinks (mainly evapotranspiration) of soil moisture are roughly out of phase with each other. For over 4 decades of time scales and 7 decades of energy, the canonical shape of the measured soil moisture spectrum is shown to be approximately Lorentzian determined by the soil moisture variance and its memory but with two exceptions: the occurrences of a peak at diurnal-to-daily time scales and a weaker peak at near annual time scales. Model calculations and spectral analysis demonstrate that diurnal and seasonal variations in hydroclimate forcing responsible for variability in evapotranspiration had minor impact on the normalized shape of the soil moisture spectrum. However, their impact was captured by adjustments in the temporal variance. These findings indicate that precipitation and not evapotranspiration variability dominates the multi-scaling properties of soil moisture variability consistent with prior climate model simulations. Furthermore, the soil moisture memory inferred by the annual peak of soil moisture (340 d) is consistent with climate model simulations, while the memory evaluated from the loss function of a linearized mass balance approach leads to a smaller value (50 d), highlighting the effect of weak non-stationarity on soil moisture variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Genomic Signatures of a Major Adaptive Event in the Pathogenic Fungus Melampsora larici-populina

The recent availability of genome-wide sequencing techniques has allowed systematic screening for molecular signatures of adaptation, including in nonmodel organisms. Host–pathogen interactions constitute good models due to the strong selective pressures that they entail. We focused on an adaptive event which affected the poplar rust fungus Melampsora larici-populina when it overcame a resistance gene borne by its host, cultivated poplar. Based on 76 virulent and avirulent isolates framing narrowly the estimated date of the adaptive event, we examined the molecular signatures of selection. Using an array of genome scan methods based on different features of nucleotide diversity, we detected a single locus exhibiting a consistent pattern suggestive of a selective sweep in virulent individuals (excess of differentiation between virulent and avirulent samples, linkage disequilibrium, genotype–phenotype statistical association, and long-range haplotypes). Our study pinpoints a single gene and further a single amino acid replacement which may have allowed the adaptive event. Although our samples are nearly contemporary to the selective sweep, it does not seem to have affected genome diversity further than the immediate vicinity of the causal locus, which can be explained by a soft selective sweep (where selection acts on standing variation) and by the impact of recombination in mitigating the impact of selection. Therefore, it seems that properties of the life cycle of M. larici-populina, which entails both high genetic diversity and outbreeding, has facilitated its adaptation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Space Charge Dominated Momentum Spread and Compensation Strategies in the Post-Linac Section of Proton Improvement Plan-II at Fermilab

The upcoming Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II), designated for enhancements to the Fermilab accelerator complex, features a Beam Transfer Line (BTL) that channels the beam from the linac exit to the booster. In the absence of longitudinal focusing beyond the superconducting linac, the beam experiences an elevated momentum spread, primarily due to nonlinear space-charge forces, surpassing the allowable limit of 2.1e-4. This study presents a detailed examination of the space-charge-induced momentum spread and outlines mitigative strategies. The investigation includes the fine-tuning of a de-buncher cavity, analyzed in terms of operating frequency, longitudinal location, and gap voltage, under both standard and perturbed beam conditions—specifically accounting for momentum jitter and energy variation. The impact of buncher cavity misalignments on the beam's longitudinal phase space is also assessed. The paper concludes by recommending an optimized cavity configuration to effectively mitigate the observed increase in momentum spread along the BTL.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recovery of p -Hydroxybenzoic Acid from Cu-Catalyzed Alkaline Hydrogen Peroxide Pretreatment of Hybrid Poplar

p-Hydroxybenzoic acid (pHBA) is present in some hardwood biomass feedstocks as an ester attached to the polymeric lignin subunits. Here, we report the isolation and recovery of pHBA from alkaline liquor waste streams obtained from fractionation of hybrid poplar using the “Cu-AHP process”. This process features two stages: alkaline pre-extraction (AP) of the biomass and copper-catalyzed alkaline hydrogen peroxide pretreatment. On a biomass scale of 100 g, 0.5 g of pHBA with a purity of 96% was obtained after decolorization and crystallization. The scalability of the purification process was demonstrated by using liquor obtained from the first-stage AP with 900 g of poplar biomass to afford 3.5 g of crystalline pHBA with 97% purity. Altogether, these results show that pHBA may be isolated and purified from waste streams generated in the two-stage Cu-AHP process without any alteration of the process conditions or impact on carbohydrate and lignin fractionation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robustness of electronic screening effects in electron spectroscopies: Example of V 2 O 5

In bulk and low-dimensional extended systems, the screening of excitations by the electron cloud is a key feature governing spectroscopic properties. Widely used computational approaches, especially in the framework of many-body perturbation theory, such as the GW approximation and the resulting approximate Bethe-Salpeter equation, are explicitly formulated in terms of the screened Coulomb interaction. In the present work, we explore the effect of screening in absorption and electron energy loss spectroscopy, concentrating on the effect of local distortions on the screening and elucidating the resulting changes in the various spectra. Using the layered bulk oxide V 2 O 5 as prototype material, we show in which way local distortions affect the screening, and in which way changes in the screening impact electron energy loss and absorption spectra including excitons. We highlight cancellations that make many-body effects in the spectra very robust with respect to structural modifications, while the band structure undergoes significant changes and the nature of the excitations may also be affected. Here, this yields insight concerning the structure-properties relations that are crucial for the use of V 2 O 5 as energy storage material, and more generally, that may be used to optimize the analysis and the calculation of electronic spectra in complex materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Framework for Characterizing Processing–Structure Relationship in Block Copolymer Thin Films

The morphology of block copolymers (BCPs) critically influences material properties and applications. This work introduces a machine learning (ML)-enabled, high-throughput framework for analyzing grazing incidence small-angle X-ray scattering (GISAXS) data and atomic force microscopy (AFM) images to characterize BCP thin film morphology. A convolutional neural network was trained to classify AFM images by surface features, achieving 97% testing accuracy. Classified images were then analyzed to extract 2D grain size measurements from the samples in a high-throughput manner. ML models were trained to predict domain orientation based on processing parameters such as solvent ratio, additive type, and additive ratio. GISAXS-based properties were predicted with strong performances (R 2 > 0.75), while AFM-based property predictions were less accurate (R 2 < 0.60), likely due to the localized nature of AFM measurements compared to the bulk information captured by GISAXS. Beyond model performance, interpretability was addressed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). SHAP analysis revealed that the additive ratio had the largest impact on morphological predictions, where additive provides the BCP chains with increased volume to rearrange into thermodynamically favorable morphologies. This interpretability helps validate model predictions and offers insight into parameter importance. Altogether, the presented framework combining high-throughput characterization and interpretable ML offers an approach to exploring and optimizing BCP thin film morphology across a broad processing landscape.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Relationships Between Mesoscale Convective System Properties and Midlevel Dynamic Perturbations

Abstract Past studies implicate dynamic anomalies operating on subsynoptic scales as a possible initiation source of summertime (July–August) mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central United States during northwesterly flow regimes. To improve our understanding of warm season MCSs occurring over a variety of flow regimes, we track midlevel (600 hPa) vorticity perturbations (“MPs”) as 2D objects comprising wavelengths of 500–2,500 km over the central US from May–August of 2004–2021. We perform statistical analysis of relationships between metrics of MP objects (e.g., duration, size, intensity, and origin) and high‐resolution MCS precipitation characteristics (e.g., duration, total rainfall, rain coverage area, and motion) that occur while collocated with or in the absence of MPs to discern predictive capability of background dynamic features on storm precipitation potential. Although the majority of MPs collocated with MCS initiation occur during July–August, a significant number (40%) occur between May and June. Northwesterly flow MPs comprise a relative minority of our events, suggesting that MPs can affect MCSs across a variety of warm season flow regimes. MPs affecting MCSs initiated primarily over the high plains near the central Rockies. Only approximately 20% of tracked MCS initiation events were collocated with MPs, but these storms produced ∼25% greater lifetime rainfall and coverage area, and ∼29% more stratiform rain than non‐MP‐induced MCSs. In general, larger and more vigorous MPs resulted in more hydrologically impactful MCSs. The most directly attributable benefit to MCS initiation was from MP‐enhanced background vertical motion and thermodynamic instability (e.g., increased CAPE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Don't cross the streams: caustics from fuzzy dark matter

Here we study how tidal streams from globular clusters may be used to constrain the mass of ultra-light dark matter particles, called `fuzzy' dark matter (FDM). A general feature of FDM models is the presence of ubiquitous density fluctuations in bound, virialized dark matter structures, on the scale of the de Broglie wavelength, arising from wave interference in the evolving dark matter distribution. These time-varying fluctuations can disturb the motions of stars, leading to potentially observable signatures in cold thin tidal streams in our own Galaxy. The study of this effect has been hindered by the difficulty in simulating the FDM wavefunction in Milky Way-sized systems. We present a simple method to evolve realistic wavefunctions in nearly static potentials, that should provide an accurate estimate of this granulation effect. We quantify the impact of FDM perturbations on tidal streams, and show that initially, while stream perturbations are small in amplitude, their power spectra exhibit a sharp cutoff corresponding to the de Broglie wavelength of the FDM potential fluctuations. Eventually, when stream perturbations become nonlinear, fold caustics generically arise that lead to density fluctuations with universal behavior. This erases the signature of the de Broglie wavelength in the stream density power spectrum, but we show that it will still be possible to determine the FDM mass in this regime, by considering the fluctuations in quantities like angular momenta or actions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fracture Mechanics—Theory, Modeling and Applications

The field of fracture mechanics was developed during the throes of World War II, and since then, it has been a very active area of research. This is a very energetic and vibrant field because fracture processes are relevant for a vast range of engineering applications spanning different temporal and length scales. Depending on the application, material fracture and fragmentation may be either a desirable feature (for example, for the purpose of hydraulic fracturing operations), or something that is to be avoided at all costs (for example, in key components of mechanical systems). In some other instances, fractures are already present and must be accommodated through novel design (for example, in the case of earthquake ruptures occurring in the Earth’s crust). Because of this wide spectra of motivation, there is a continuous need for the fracture mechanics research community to gain more insight on how fractures are created, evolve, and interact with themselves and with material microstructures. In addition, there are still many remaining questions about how fracture propagation, growth, and interaction impact overall material behavior, and how to develop accurate models to predict this behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil moisture gradients strengthen mesoscale convective systems by increasing wind shear

Mesoscale convective systems are a class of storm linked to extensive flooding and other destructive hazards in many regions globally. In West Africa, soil moisture impacts provide a valuable source of predictability for mature storm hazards, but little is known about mature storm sensitivity to soil moisture in other climatic regions. Here we use a storm track dataset, satellite observations and reanalysis fields to investigate the response of mature storms to soil moisture in seven global storm hotspots—West Africa, India, South America, South Africa, Australia and the United States Great Plains. We demonstrate that mesoscale soil moisture gradients (~500 km) can enhance storms by driving increased vertical wind shear conditions, a crucial ingredient for storm organization, through the strengthening of atmospheric temperature gradients. This is evidenced by a 10–30% increase in precipitation feature size and rainfall for the largest storms on days with favourable soil moisture gradients compared with unfavourable gradients. Global simulations confirm that soil moisture gradients influence wind shear. The results demonstrate the importance of soil moisture feedbacks for accurate forecasting of mesoscale convective systems and future projections of extreme events under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection of atmospheric rivers with inline uncertainty quantification: TECA-BARD v1.0.1

It has become increasingly common for researchers to utilize methods that identify weather features in climate models. There is an increasing recognition that the uncertainty associated with choice of detection method may affect our scientific understanding. For example, results from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) indicate that there are a broad range of plausible atmospheric river (AR) detectors and that scientific results can depend on the algorithm used. There are similar examples from the literature on extratropical cyclones and tropical cyclones. It is therefore imperative to develop detection techniques that explicitly quantify the uncertainty associated with the detection of events. We seek to answer the following question: given a “plausible” AR detector, how does uncertainty in the detector quantitatively impact scientific results? We develop a large dataset of global AR counts, manually identified by a set of eight researchers with expertise in atmospheric science, which we use to constrain parameters in a novel AR detection method. We use a Bayesian framework to sample from the set of AR detector parameters that yield AR counts similar to the expert database of AR counts; this yields a set of “plausible” AR detectors from which we can assess quantitative uncertainty. This probabilistic AR detector has been implemented in the Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis (TECA), which allows for efficient processing of petabyte-scale datasets. We apply the TECA Bayesian AR Detector, TECA-BARD v1.0.1, to the MERRA-2 reanalysis and show that the sign of the correlation between global AR count and El Niño–Southern Oscillation depends on the set of parameters used.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗