Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “error rate”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,171 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

Predictability in the extended range

This paper describes the results of extended range predictability experiments using an efficient two-level spherical quasi-geostrophic model. The experiments have an initial rms doubling time of about two days. This growth rate, along with an initial error of about one-half the initial error of present operational models, produces an rms error equal to the climatological rms error and a correlation of 0.5 on about day 12 of the forecast. On the largest scales, this limiting point is reached shortly thereafter. The error continues to grow at a decreasing rate until at about 30 days the forecast skill is extremely small and comparable to the skill of a persistence forecast. Various time averages at various lags are examined for skill in the extended range. Filters that weighted most strongly in the initial forecast days provide increased skill.

Roads, John O.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Formulation of autoconversion and drop spectra shape in shallow cumulus clouds

Two-moment autoconversion parameterizations as compared to accretion parameterizations exhibit significant errors suggesting that additional moments are needed to increase their accuracy. We develop a three-moment autoconversion parameterization using output from an LES model with size-resolved microphysics. Adding the third moment decreases the errors of parameterization and improves precipitation prediction. However, the errors are still significantly larger than errors of accretion rate. An analysis of the cloud drop size distributions (DSDs) in the simulated tropical convective cloud system reveals that most of DSDs have a significant fraction of cloud liquid water content (qc) in the mid-size droplet range (radii from 20 to 40 microns). Our data indicates that more than 30% of DSDs have over half of qc contained in the mid-size range and about 60% of spectra have, at least, one third of qc in this range. Even when the rain/drizzle mode is small (radar reflectivity Z < -10 dBZ), there is a significant number of spectra in which fraction of qc in the mid-size range is as large as 60%. These DSDs are more complex than the frequently used single-mode Gamma or Log-normal distributions, which usually do not have a considerable tail extending to the mid-size range and can be defined by three microphysical moments. The need to define DSDs by more than three moments explains the large errors in the three-moment autoconversion parameterization. The limitation of three-parameter Gamma or Log-normal distributions should be kept in mind when applying them in precipitating shallow Cu clouds.

Kogan, Yefim↗
DOE OSTI2017

Spatio-temporal distribution of Oklahoma earthquakes: Exploring relationships using a nearest-neighbor approach: Nearest-neighbor analysis of Oklahoma

Determining the spatiotemporal characteristics of natural and induced seismic events holds the opportunity to gain new insights into why these events occur. Linking the seismicity characteristics with other geologic, geographic, natural, or anthropogenic factors could help to identify the causes and suggest mitigation strategies that reduce the risk associated with such events. The nearest-neighbor approach utilized in this work represents a practical first step toward identifying statistically correlated clusters of recorded earthquake events. Detailed study of the Oklahoma earthquake catalog’s inherent errors, empirical model parameters, and model assumptions is presented. We found that the cluster analysis results are stable with respect to empirical parameters (e.g., fractal dimension) but were sensitive to epicenter location errors and seismicity rates. Most critically, we show that the patterns in the distribution of earthquake clusters in Oklahoma are primarily defined by spatial relationships between events. This observation is a stark contrast to California (also known for induced seismicity) where a comparable cluster distribution is defined by both spatial and temporal interactions between events. These results highlight the difficulty in understanding the mechanisms and behavior of induced seismicity but provide insights for future work.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

An anomaly detection framework for dynamic systems using a Bayesian hierarchical framework

Complex systems are susceptible to many types of anomalies, faults, and abnormal behavior caused by a variety of off-nominal conditions that may ultimately result in major failures or catastrophic events. Early and accurate detection of these anomalies using system inputs and outputs collected from sensors and smart devices has become a challenging problem and an active area of research in many application domains. In this article, we present a new Bayesian hierarchical framework that is able to model the relationship between system inputs (sensor measurements) and outputs (response variables) without imposing strong distributional/parametric assumptions while using only a subset of training samples and sensor attributes. Then, an optimal cost-sensitive anomaly detection framework is proposed to determine whether a sample is an anomalous one taking into consideration the trade-off between misclassification errors and detection rates. The model can be used for both supervised and unsupervised settings depending on the availability of data regarding the behavior of the system under anomaly conditions. The unsupervised model is particularly useful when it is prohibitive to identify in advance the anomalies that a system may present and where no data are available regarding the behavior of the system under anomaly conditions. A Bayesian hierarchical setting is used to structure the proposed framework and help with accommodating uncertainty, imposing interpretability, and controlling the sparsity and complexity of the proposed anomaly detection framework. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is also developed for model training using past data. Furthermore, the numerical experiments conducted using a simulated data set and a wind turbine data set demonstrate the successful application of the proposed work for system response modeling and anomaly detection.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating Radiation Computations for Dynamical Models With Targeted Machine Learning and Code Optimization

Abstract Atmospheric radiation is the main driver of weather and climate, yet due to a complicated absorption spectrum, the precise treatment of radiative transfer in numerical weather and climate models is computationally unfeasible. Radiation parameterizations need to maximize computational efficiency as well as accuracy, and for predicting the future climate many greenhouse gases need to be included. In this work, neural networks (NNs) were developed to replace the gas optics computations in a modern radiation scheme (RTE+RRTMGP) by using carefully constructed models and training data. The NNs, implemented in Fortran and utilizing BLAS for batched inference, are faster by a factor of 1–6, depending on the software and hardware platforms. We combined the accelerated gas optics with a refactored radiative transfer solver, resulting in clear‐sky longwave (shortwave) fluxes being 3.5 (1.8) faster to compute on an Intel platform. The accuracy, evaluated with benchmark line‐by‐line computations across a large range of atmospheric conditions, is very similar to the original scheme with errors in heating rates and top‐of‐atmosphere radiative forcings typically below 0.1 K day −1 and 0.5 W m −2 , respectively. These results show that targeted machine learning, code restructuring techniques, and the use of numerical libraries can yield material gains in efficiency while retaining accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Principles of proteome allocation are revealed using proteomic data and genome-scale models

Integrating omics data to refine or make context-specific models is an active field of constraint-based modeling. Proteomics now cover over 95% of the Escherichia coli proteome by mass. Genome-scale models of Metabolism and macromolecular Expression (ME) compute proteome allocation linked to metabolism and fitness. Using proteomics data, we formulated allocation constraints for key proteome sectors in the ME model. The resulting calibrated model effectively computed the “generalist” (wild-type) E. coli proteome and phenotype across diverse growth environments. Across 15 growth conditions, prediction errors for growth rate and metabolic fluxes were 69% and 14% lower, respectively. The sector-constrained ME model thus represents a generalist ME model reflecting both growth rate maximization and “hedging” against uncertain environments and stresses, as indicated by significant enrichment of these sectors for the general stress response sigma factor σS. Finally, the sector constraints represent a general formalism for integrating omics data from any experimental condition into constraint-based ME models. The constraints can be fine-grained (individual proteins) or coarse-grained (functionally-related protein groups) as demonstrated here. Furthermore, this flexible formalism provides an accessible approach for narrowing the gap between the complexity captured by omics data and governing principles of proteome allocation described by systems-level models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecast for a growth-rate measurement using peculiar velocities from LSST supernovae

We investigate whether the cosmic growth-rate parameter fσ 8 can be measured using peculiar velocities (PVs) derived from type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We produced simulations of different SN types using a realistic LSST observing strategy that incorporated noise, a photometric detection from the difference-image analysis (DIA) pipeline, and a PV field modeled from the Uchuu universe machine simulations. We tested three different observational scenarios that ranged from ideal conditions with spectroscopic host galaxy redshifts and spectroscopic SN typing to realistic photometric typing that resulted in a contamination with non-Ia SNe. Using a maximum likelihood technique, we showed that the LSST can measure fσ 8 with a precision of 10% in the redshift range 0.02 < z < 0.14 for our most realistic scenario. In three tomographic bins, the LSST will be able to constrain the growth-rate parameter with errors below 18% up to redshift z = 0.14. We also tested the contamination effect on the maximum likelihood method and found that for a contamination fraction below ∼2%, we recovered unbiased measurements. The results of this analysis highlight that the LSST SN sample is expected to complement traditional redshift-space distortion measurements at high redshift. This will provide a novel avenue for testing general relativity and different dark energy models.

Rosselli, D↗
DOE OSTI2014

Comparison of dynamic properties of ground- and excited-state emission in p-doped InAs/GaAs quantum-dot lasers

The dynamic properties of ground- and excited-state emission in InAs/GaAs quantum-dot lasers operating close to 1.31 μm are studied systematically. Under low bias conditions, such devices emit on the ground state, and switch to emission from the excited state under large drive currents. Modification of one facet reflectivity by deposition of a dichroic mirror yields emission at one of the two quantum-dot states under all bias conditions and enables to properly compare the dynamic properties of lasing from the two different initial states. The larger differential gain of the excited state, which follows from its larger degeneracy, as well as its somewhat smaller nonlinear gain compression results in largely improved modulation capabilities. We demonstrate maximum small-signal bandwidths of 10.51 GHz and 16.25 GHz for the ground and excited state, respectively, and correspondingly, large-signal digital modulation capabilities of 15 Gb/s and 22.5 Gb/s. For the excited state, the maximum error-free bit rate is 25 Gb/s.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

15 Gb/s index-coupled distributed-feedback lasers based on 1.3 μm InGaAs quantum dots

The static properties and large-signal modulation capabilities of directly modulated p-doped quantum-dot distributed-feedback lasers are presented. Based on pure index gratings the devices exhibit a side-mode-suppression ratio of 58 dB and optical output powers up to 34 mW. Assisted by a broad gain spectrum, which is typical for quantum-dot material, emission wavelengths from 1290 nm to 1310 nm are covered by the transversal and longitudinal single-mode lasers fabricated from the same single wafer. Thus, these lasers are ideal devices for on-chip wavelength division multiplexing within the original-band according to the IEEE802.3ba standard. 10 Gb/s data transmission across 30 km of single mode fiber is demonstrated. The maximum error-free data rate is found to be 15 Gb/s.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of FAST.Farm Against Full-Scale Turbine SCADA Data for a Small Wind Farm

FAST.Farm is a new midfidelity engineering tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory targeted at accurately and efficiently predicting wind turbine power production and structural loading in wind farm settings, including wake interactions between turbines. FAST.Farm is based on some of the principles of the Dynamic Wake Meandering model—including passive tracer modeling of wake meandering—but addresses many of the limitations of previous Dynamic Wake Meandering (DWM) implementations. Previous FAST.Farm verification studies show the similarities and differences between FAST.Farm and large-eddy simulations for rigid and flexible turbines. In this validation study, FAST.Farm turbine responses are compared to multiturbine measurements from a subset of a full-scale wind farm. FAST.Farm predictions of turbine generator power, rotor speed, and blade pitch for five-turbine simulations are compared to supervisory control and data acquisition results. Results reveal that FAST.Farm generator power mean and standard deviation results reasonably match measured data for upstream and downstream turbines, as well as the mean rotor speed and blade pitch above rated wind speeds. However, FAST.Farm generally underpredicts the mean rotor speed and overpredicts the mean blade pitch below rated operation. These errors are likely related to inaccuracies in the generic controller simulated. Despite controller differences, FAST.Farm predicts the same overall relative rotor power trends for all waked turbines at all wind speeds.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Galaxy-galaxy lensing in the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data

We present galaxy-galaxy lensing results from 139 square degrees of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Science Verification (SV) data. Our lens sample consists of red galaxies, known as redMaGiC, which are specifically selected to have a low photometric redshift error and outlier rate. The lensing measurement has a total signal-to-noise of 29 over scales $0.09 < R < 15$ Mpc/$h$, including all lenses over a wide redshift range $0.2 < z < 0.8$. Dividing the lenses into three redshift bins for this constant moving number density sample, we find no evidence for evolution in the halo mass with redshift. We obtain consistent results for the lensing measurement with two independent shear pipelines, ngmix and im3shape. We perform a number of null tests on the shear and photometric redshift catalogs and quantify resulting systematic uncertainties. Covariances from jackknife subsamples of the data are validated with a suite of 50 mock surveys. The results and systematics checks in this work provide a critical input for future cosmological and galaxy evolution studies with the DES data and redMaGiC galaxy samples. We fit a Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model, and demonstrate that our data constrains the mean halo mass of the lens galaxies, despite strong degeneracies between individual HOD parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-C-BRA-03: An Automated and Quick Contour Errordetection for Auto Segmentation in Online Adaptive Radiotherapy

Purpose: To develop a tool that can quickly and automatically assess contour quality generated from auto segmentation during online adaptive replanning. Methods: Due to the strict time requirement of online replanning and lack of ‘ground truth’ contours in daily images, our method starts with assessing image registration accuracy focusing on the surface of the organ in question. Several metrics tightly related to registration accuracy including Jacobian maps, contours shell deformation, and voxel-based root mean square (RMS) analysis were computed. To identify correct contours, additional metrics and an adaptive decision tree are introduced. To approve in principle, tests were performed with CT sets, planned and daily CTs acquired using a CT-on-rails during routine CT-guided RT delivery for 20 prostate cancer patients. The contours generated on daily CTs using an auto-segmentation tool (ADMIRE, Elekta, MIM) based on deformable image registration of the planning CT and daily CT were tested. Results: The deformed contours of 20 patients with total of 60 structures were manually checked as baselines. The incorrect rate of total contours is 49%. To evaluate the quality of local deformation, the Jacobian determinant (1.047±0.045) on contours has been analyzed. In an analysis of rectum contour shell deformed, the higher rate (0.41) of error contours detection was obtained compared to 0.32 with manual check. All automated detections took less than 5 seconds. Conclusion: The proposed method can effectively detect contour errors in micro and macro scope by evaluating multiple deformable registration metrics in a parallel computing process. Future work will focus on improving practicability and optimizing calculation algorithms and metric selection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

S2M: A Stochastic Simulation Model of Poliovirus Genetic State Transition

Modeling the molecular mechanisms that govern genetic variation can be useful in understanding the dynamics that drive genetic state transition in quasispecies viruses. For example, there is considerable interest in understanding how the relatively benign vaccine strains of poliovirus eventually revert to forms that confer neurovirulence and cause disease (ie, vaccine-derived poliovirus). This report describes a stochastic simulation model, S2M, which can be used to generate hypothetical outcomes based on known mechanisms of genetic diversity. S2M begins with predefined genotypes based on the Sabin-1 and Mahoney wild-type sequences, constructs a set of independent cell-based populations, and performs in-cell replication and cell-to-cell infection cycles while quantifying genetic changes that track the transition from Sabin-1 toward Mahoney. Realism is incorporated into the model by assigning defaults for variables that constrain mechanisms of genetic variability based roughly on metrics reported in the literature, yet these values can be modified at the command line in order to generate hypothetical outcomes driven by these parameters. To demonstrate the utility of S2M, simulations were performed to examine the effects of the rates of replication error and recombination and the presence or absence of defective interfering particles, upon reaching the end states of Mahoney resemblance (semblance of a vaccine-derived state), neurovirulence, genome fitness, and cloud diversity. Simulations provide insight into how modeled biological features may drive hypothetical outcomes, independently or in combination, in ways that are not always intuitively obvious.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗