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Customer premises services market demand assessment 1980 - 2000. Volume 1: Executive summary

Estimates of market demand for domestic civilian telecommunications services for the years 1980 to 2000 are provided. Overall demand, demand or satellite services, demand for satellite delivered Customer Premises Service (CPS), and demand for 30/20 GHz Customer Premises Services are covered. Emphasis is placed on the CPS market and demand is segmented by market, by service, by user class and by geographic region. Prices for competing services are discussed and the distribution of traffic with respect to distance is estimated. A nationwide traffic distribution model for CPS in terms of demand for CPS traffic and earth stations for each of the major SMSAs in the United States are provided.

Gamble, R. B.↗

Linear Estimation of Particle Bulk Parameters from Multi-Wavelength Lidar Measurements

An algorithm for linear estimation of aerosol bulk properties such as particle volume, effective radius and complex refractive index from multiwavelength lidar measurements is presented. The approach uses the fact that the total aerosol concentration can well be approximated as a linear combination of aerosol characteristics measured by multiwavelength lidar. Therefore, the aerosol concentration can be estimated from lidar measurements without the need to derive the size distribution, which entails more sophisticated procedures. The definition of the coefficients required for the linear estimates is based on an expansion of the particle size distribution in terms of the measurement kernels. Once the coefficients are established, the approach permits fast retrieval of aerosol bulk properties when compared with the full regularization technique. In addition, the straightforward estimation of bulk properties stabilizes the inversion making it more resistant to noise in the optical data. Numerical tests demonstrate that for data sets containing three aerosol backscattering and two extinction coefficients (so called 3 + 2 ) the uncertainties in the retrieval of particle volume and surface area are below 45% when input data random uncertainties are below 20 %. Moreover, using linear estimates allows reliable retrievals even when the number of input data is reduced. To evaluate the approach, the results obtained using this technique are compared with those based on the previously developed full inversion scheme that relies on the regularization procedure. Both techniques were applied to the data measured by multiwavelength lidar at NASA/GSFC. The results obtained with both methods using the same observations are in good agreement. At the same time, the high speed of the retrieval using linear estimates makes the method preferable for generating aerosol information from extended lidar observations. To demonstrate the efficiency of the method, an extended time series of observations acquired in Turkey in May 2010 was processed using the linear estimates technique permitting, for what we believe to be the first time, temporal-height distributions of particle parameters.

linear estimation↗

Atomic hydrogen distribution

Several possible H2 vertical distributions in Titan's atmosphere are considered with the constraint of 5 km-A a total quantity. Approximative calculations show that hydrogen distribution is quite sensitive to two other parameters of Titan's atmosphere: the temperature and the presence of other constituents. The escape fluxes of H and H2 are also estimated as well as the consequent distributions trapped in the Saturnian system.

Tabarie, N.↗

The Application of New Software Technology to the Architecture of the National Cycle Program

As part of the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) effort of NASA Lewis in conjunction with the United States aeropropulsion industry, a new system simulation framework, the National Cycle Program (NCP), capable of combining existing empirical engine models with new detailed component-based computational models is being developed. The software architecture of the NCP program involves a generalized object- oriented framework and a base-set of engine component models along with supporting tool kits which will support engine simulation in a distributed environment. As the models are extended to contain two and three dimensions the computing load increases rapidly and it is intended that this load be distributed across multiple work stations executing concurrently in order to get acceptably fast results. The research carried out was directed toward performance analysis of the distributed object system. More specifically, the performance of the actor-based distributed object design I created earlier was desired. To this end, the research was directed toward the design and implementation of suitable performance-analysis techniques and software to demonstrate those techniques. There were three specific results which are reported in two separate reports submitted separately as NASA Technical Memoranda. The results are: (1) Design, implementation, and testing of a performance analysis program for a set of active objects (actor based objects) which allowed the individual actors to be assigned to arbitrary processes on an arbitrary set of machines. (2) The global-balance-equation approach has the fundamental limitation that the number of equations increases exponentially with the number of actors. Hence, unlike many approximate approaches to this problem, the nearest-neighbor approach allows checking of the solution and an estimate of the error. The technique was demonstrated in a prototype analysis program as part of this research. The results of the program were checked against the global-balance solution discussed above. Late during the grant, a much better approximation was developed and this is discussed in result below. As a consequence, a proposal was submitted to continue the research by developing the new approximation including development of a complete program from the prototype. (3) The source of approximation in the nearest-neighbor algorithm is the requirement for estimating some joint probabilities from some marginal distributions. A completely ad hoc estimate was used in the prototype.

Schoeffler, James D.↗

Effects of Galactic Irradiation on Thermal and Electronic Transport in Tungsten

The impact of irradiation on the thermal and electronic properties of materials is a persistent puzzle, particularly defect formation at the atomic and nanoscales. This work examines the nanoscale effects of low-energy irradiation on tungsten (W), focusing on defect-induced modifications to thermal and electronic transport. Using the site-projected thermal conductivity (SPTC) method [A. Gautam et al. PSS-RRL, 2400306, 2024], bulk and twin-grain boundary W with vacancy defects based on the Norgett–Robinson–Torrens displacements per atom model is analyzed. SPTC provides a detailed prediction of postcascade spatial thermal conductivity distribution. Electronic conductivity activity is estimated using the “N 2 method” [K. Nepal et al. Carbon, 119711, 2025] to explore the consequences of vacancies and grain boundaries, highlighting the defect-dependent nature of charge transport behavior. These findings offer high-resolution insights into irradiation-driven transport phenomena, with implications for space-exposed materials and nanoscale thermal/electronic management.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

The soil health assessment protocol and evaluation applied to soil organic carbon

The concept of soil health has evolved over the past several decades, recognizing that dynamic soil property response to management and land use is highly dependent on site-specific factors that must be considered when interpreting soil health measurements. Initially, the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF) and Comprehensive Assessment of Soil Health (CASH) were developed and used globally for scoring soil health indicators. However, both SMAF and CASH frameworks were developed using a relatively small dataset and their interpretation curves were not validated at the nationwide scale. Expanding upon these concepts, we propose the Soil Health Assessment Protocol and Evaluation (SHAPE) tool. The SHAPE was developed using 14,680 soil organic C (SOC) observations from across the United States, and accounts for edaphic and climate factors at the continental scale. Data were compiled from the literature, the Cornell Soil Health Laboratory, and the Kellogg Soil Survey Laboratory. In this approach, scoring curves are Bayesian model-based estimates of the conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) for defined soil peer groups reflecting five soil texture and five soil suborder classes adjusted for mean annual temperature and precipitation. Specifically, SHAPE produces scores between 0 and 1 (0–100%) for measured SOC values that reflect the quantile or position within the conditional CDF along with measures of uncertainty. Herein, we focus on development of the SHAPE scoring curve for SOC with our case studies. SHAPE is a flexible, quantitative tool that provides a regionally relevant interpretation of this key soil health indicator.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Search for resonances in events with photon and jet final states in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A search for resonances in events with the γ+jet final state has been performed using proton-proton collision data collected at $\sqrt s$ = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the LHC. The total data analyzed correspond to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb –1 . Models of excited quarks and quantum black holes are considered. Using a wide-jet reconstruction for the candidate jet, the γ+jet invariant mass spectrum measured in data is examined for the presence of resonances over the standard model continuum background. The background is estimated by fitting this mass distribution with a functional form. The data exhibit no statistically significant deviations from the expected standard model background. Exclusion limits at 95% confidence level on the resonance mass and other parameters are set. Excited light-flavor quarks (excited bottom quarks) are excluded up to a mass of 6.0 (3.8) TeV. Quantum black hole production is excluded for masses up to 7.5 (5.2) TeV in the Arkani-Hamed-Dimopoulos-Dvali (Randall-Sundrum) model. These lower mass bounds are the most stringent to date among those obtained in the γ+jet final state.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Analysis of the turbostratic structures in PAN-based carbon fibers with wide-angle x-ray diffraction

Carbon fiber (CF) is a versatile material renowned for its excellent mechanical, thermal, and electrical properties. Polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based CFs dominate the market due to their high tensile strength, rendering them suitable for structural applications in a wide variety of applications ranging from sporting goods to aerospace. Over five decades of commercial development of PAN-based CF has resulted in a range of varieties with different tensile moduli and tensile strengths. The microstructures, nanostructures, and crystal structures of PAN-based CF play pivotal roles in the macroscale properties of this material. In particular, the crystal structure and crystallite orientation in CF is closely related to the mechanical properties. The crystal structure of PAN-based CF generally consists of turbostratic carbon, which is a disordered form of graphite, the characteristics of which can be effectively characterized in a bulk format through wide-angle x-ray diffraction (WAXD). In this work, we employed a three-part approach to the analysis of WAXD patterns collected from four intermediate modulus PAN-based CFs. The approach incorporates a Scherrer analysis, a Debye analysis, and an orientational analysis to provide precise estimates of crystallite sizes, crystallite distributions, and crystallite orientations with the fiber axis. Furthermore, the results presented here suggest that intermediate modulus PAN-based CF mostly consists of small turbostratic crystallites (<4 nm), with larger crystallites having increased orientation with the fiber axis. The results here imply the presence of curvature and/or wrinkling of the turbostratic layers within the CF structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Accelerating Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference in neural networks and neural operators

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high dimensionality of the network’s parameter space and the non-convexity of their posterior distributions. Therefore, various approximation techniques, such as variational inference (VI) or stochastic gradient MCMC, are often employed to infer the posterior distribution of the network parameters. Such approximations introduce inaccuracies in the inferred distributions, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach that combines inexpensive VI and accurate HMC methods to efficiently and accurately quantify uncertainties in neural networks and neural operators. The proposed approach leverages an initial VI training on the full network. We examine the influence of individual parameters on the prediction uncertainty, which shows that a large proportion of the parameters do not contribute substantially to uncertainty in the network predictions. This information is then used to significantly reduce the dimension of the parameter space, and HMC is performed only for the subset of network parameters that strongly influence prediction uncertainties. This yields a framework for accelerating the full batch HMC for posterior inference in neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework on deep neural networks and operator networks, showing that inference can be performed for large networks with tens to hundreds of thousands of parameters. Finally, we show that this method can effectively learn surrogates for complex physical systems by modeling the operator that maps from upstream conditions to wall-pressure data on a cone in hypersonic flow.

Bayesian inference↗

Avalanche gain and its effect on energy resolution in GEM-based detectors

Here, we present avalanche gain and associated resolution measurements recorded with a 4 He:CO 2 (70:30) gas mixture and pure SF 6 , a Negative Ion (NI) gas. SF 6 is of particular interest to the directional dark matter detection community, as its low thermal diffusion helps to retain recoil ionization track features over long drift lengths. With the aid of a general form of the reduced first Townsend coefficient (RFTC), multiple GEM-based detector data sets are used to study the high-gain behavior of the 4 He:CO 2 gas mixture. The high-gain data is well described purely in terms of the reduced electric field strength and the number of GEMs, and the robust relationship between the RFTC and the average, reduced, electric field strength across the GEMs is emphasized. The associated (pulse-height) resolution measurements are used to discuss the variance of the avalanche distribution and to describe and estimate the lower limits of energy resolution one should expect to measure using a simple relationship with the RFTC. In the end, a description of avalanche gain, its effect on energy resolution, and the contributing experimental parameters in GEM-based detectors is developed over a broad parameter space for further use.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Symmetric-asymmetric collision comparison: Disentangling nuclear structure and subnucleonic structure effects for small system flow

Previous flow measurements in small collision systems were mostly based on highly asymmetric collisions (p+Pb, p+Au, d+Au, 3 He+Au), where both nuclear structure and subnucleonic fluctuations are important. Comparing these asymmetric systems with the newly available symmetric 16 O+ 16 O collisions at RHIC and LHC provides a unique opportunity to disentangle these two contributions. Using Glauber models incorporating both nucleon and quark-level substructure, we analyze multiplicity distributions and initial-state estimators: eccentricities ε n for anisotropic flow ν n and inverse transverse size d ⟂ for radial flow. We find that subnucleonic fluctuations impact O+O collisions differently from asymmetric systems, creating specific patterns in flow observables that enable disentangling the competing contributions. Such experimental comparisons will reduce uncertainties in the initial conditions and improve our understanding of the properties of the QGP-like medium produced in small systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Turbulence modeling to aid tidal energy resource characterization in the Western Passage, Maine, USA

Numerical models combined with field measurements are regularly used to characterize tidal energy resources at potential energetic sites. However, most existing works only focus on the tidal hydrodynamic characteristics, and turbulence parameters are often not reported because of the lack of high-quality turbulence measurements and the limitations of numerical models in resolving turbulent eddies. In this study, we used FVCOM - a hydrostatic primitive equation (HPE) model - to characterize the tidal energy resource in the Western Passage, Maine, USA, by taking care of the essential macro-scale turbulence properties. We observed an excellent model performance using the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 Turbulence Model; estimating the spatial and vertical distribution of the turbulent kinetic energy and intensity added a new perspective to the site ranking for tidal energy converter (TEC) deployments. In addition, we also examined the role of channel geometry and bathymetry, such as headlands and underwater sills, in enhancing turbulent eddies around potential TEC siting locations. Ultimately, the detailed analysis of the turbulent flow characteristics has changed the site-ranking results and demonstrated that the regional-scale HPE models could be used for the relative understanding of more or less turbulent sites for a refined resource assessment.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Uncertainty of SW Cloud Radiative Effect in Atmospheric Models Due to the Parameterization of Liquid Cloud Optical Properties

Clouds are largely responsible for the spread of climate models predictions. Here we focus on the uncertainties in cloud shortwave radiative effect due to the parameterization of liquid cloud single scattering properties (SSPs) from liquid water content (LWC) and droplet number concentration (N), named parameterization of cloud optical properties. Uncertainties arise from not accounting for the droplet size distribution (DSD)—which affects the estimation of the effective radius (r eff ) and modulates the r eff -dependency of the SSPs—and from averaging SSPs over wide spectral bands. To assess these uncertainties a series of r eff -dependent SSPs parameterizations corresponding to various DSDs and spectral averaging methods are derived and implemented in a radiative code. Combined with the DSD-dependent estimation of r eff they are used to compute the bulk radiative properties (reflectance, transmittance, absorptance) of various clouds (defined in terms of LWC and N), including a homogeneous cloud, more realistic case studies, and outputs of a climate model. The results show that the cloud radiative forcing can vary up to 20% depending on the assumed DSD. Likewise, differences up to 20% are obtained for heating rates. The estimation of r eff is the main source of uncertainty, while the SSPs parameterization contributes to around 20% of the total uncertainty. Spectral averaging is less an issue, except for atmospheric absorption. Overall, global shortwave cloud radiative effect can vary by 6 W m –2 depending on the assumed DSD shape, which is about 13% of the best observational estimate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal Experiments for Fractured Rock Characterization: Theoretical Analysis and Inverse Modeling

Abstract Field‐scale properties of fractured rocks play a crucial role in many subsurface applications, yet methodologies for identification of the statistical parameters of a discrete fracture network (DFN) are scarce. We present an inversion technique to infer two such parameters, fracture density and fractal dimension, from cross‐borehole thermal experiments data. It is based on a particle‐based heat‐transfer model, whose evaluation is accelerated with a deep neural network (DNN) surrogate that is integrated into a grid search. The DNN is trained on a small number of the heat‐transfer model runs and predicts the cumulative density function of the thermal field. The latter is used to compute fine posterior distributions of the (to be estimated) parameters. Our synthetic experiments reveal that fracture density is well constrained by data, while fractal dimension is harder to determine. Adding nonuniform prior information related to the DFN connectivity improves the inference of this parameter.

Zhou, Zitong↗

Matrix Approach to Land Carbon Cycle Modeling

Land ecosystems contribute to climate change mitigation by taking up approximately 30% of anthropogenically emitted carbon. However, estimates of the amount and distribution of carbon uptake across the world's ecosystems or biomes display great uncertainty. The latter hinders a full understanding of the mechanisms and drivers of land carbon uptake, and predictions of the future fate of the land carbon sink. The latter is needed as evidence to inform climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation schemes. To advance land carbon cycle modeling, we have developed a matrix approach. Land carbon cycle models use carbon balance equations to represent carbon exchanges among pools. Our approach organizes this set of equations into a single matrix equation without altering any processes of the original model. The matrix equation enables the development of a theoretical framework for understanding the general, transient behavior of the land carbon cycle. While carbon input and residence time are used to quantify carbon storage capacity at steady state, a third quantity, carbon storage potential, integrates fluxes with time to define dynamic disequilibrium of the carbon cycle under global change. The matrix approach can help address critical contemporary issues in modeling, including pinpointing sources of model uncertainty and accelerating spin-up of land carbon cycle models by tens of times. The accelerated spin-up liberates models from the computational burden that hinders comprehensive parameter sensitivity analysis and assimilation of observational data to improve model accuracy. Such computational efficiency offered by the matrix approach enables substantial improvement of model predictions using ever-increasing data availability. Overall, the matrix approach offers a step change forward for understanding and modeling the land carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extending empirical constraints on the SZ–mass scaling relation to higher redshifts via HST weak lensing measurements of nine clusters from the SPT-SZ survey at z ≳ 1

We present a Hubble Space Telescope (HST) weak gravitational lensing study of nine distant and massive galaxy clusters with redshifts 1.0 ≲ z ≲ 1.7 (z median = 1.4) and Sunyaev Zel’dovich (SZ) detection significance ξ > 6.0 from the South Pole Telescope Sunyaev Zel’dovich (SPT-SZ) survey. We measured weak lensing galaxy shapes in HST/ACS F606W and F814W images and used additional observations from HST/WFC3 in F110W and VLT/FORS2 in U HIGH to preferentially select background galaxies at z ≳ 1.8, achieving a high purity. We combined recent redshift estimates from the CANDELS/3D-HST and HUDF fields to infer an improved estimate of the source redshift distribution. We measured weak lensing masses by fitting the tangential reduced shear profiles with spherical Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) models. We obtained the largest lensing mass in our sample for the cluster SPT-CL J2040—4451, thereby confirming earlier results that suggest a high lensing mass of this cluster compared to X-ray and SZ mass measurements. Combining our weak lensing mass constraints with results obtained by previous studies for lower redshift clusters, we extended the calibration of the scaling relation between the unbiased SZ detection significance ζ and the cluster mass for the SPT-SZ survey out to higher redshifts. We found that the mass scale inferred from our highest redshift bin (1.2 < z < 1.7) is consistent with an extrapolation of constraints derived from lower redshifts, albeit with large statistical uncertainties. Thus, our results show a similar tendency as found in previous studies, where the cluster mass scale derived from the weak lensing data is lower than the mass scale expected in a PlanckνΛCDM (i.e. νΛ cold dark matter) cosmology given the SPT-SZ cluster number counts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The PAU Survey: narrow-band photometric redshifts using Gaussian processes

Here, we study the performance of the hybrid template machine learning photometric redshift (photo- z ) algorithm delight , which uses Gaussian processes, on a subset of the early data release of the Physics of the Accelerating Universe Survey (PAUS). We calibrate the fluxes of the 40 PAUS narrow bands with six broad-band fluxes ( uBVriz ) in the Cosmic Evolution Survey (COSMOS) field using three different methods, including a new method that utilizes the correlation between the apparent size and overall flux of the galaxy. We use a rich set of empirically derived galaxy spectral templates as guides to train the Gaussian process, and we show that our results are competitive with other standard photometric redshift algorithms. delight achieves a photo- z 68th percentile error of σ 68 = 0.0081(1 + z ) without any quality cut for galaxies with i auto < 22.5 as compared to 0.0089(1 + z ) and 0.0202(1 + z ) for the bpz and annz 2 codes, respectively. delight is also shown to produce more accurate probability distribution functions for individual redshift estimates than bpz and annz 2. Common photo- z outliers of delight and bcnz 2 (previously applied to PAUS) are found to be primarily caused by outliers in the narrow-band fluxes, with a small number of cases potentially indicating spectroscopic redshift failures in the reference sample. In the process, we introduce performance metrics derived from the results of bcnz 2 and delight , allowing us to achieve a photo- z quality of σ 68 < 0.0035(1 + z ) at a magnitude of i auto < 22.5 while keeping 50 per cent objects of the galaxy sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stimulated emission tomography for efficient characterization of spatial entanglement

Stimulated-emission tomography (SET) is an excellent tool for characterizing the process of spontaneous parametric down conversion (SPDC), which is commonly used to create pairs of entangled photons for use in quantum information protocols. The use of stimulated emission increases the average number of detected photons by several orders of magnitude compared to the spontaneous process. In a SET measurement, the parametric down conversion is seeded by an intense signal field prepared with specified mode properties rather than by broadband multimodal vacuum fluctuations, as is the case for the spontaneous process. The SET process generates an intense idler field in a mode that is the complex conjugate to the signal mode. In this work we use SET to estimate the joint spatial mode distribution (JSMD) in the Laguerre-Gaussian (LG) basis of the two photons of an entangled photon pair. The pair is produced by parametric down conversion in a beta barium borate (BBO) crystal with type-II phase matching pumped at a wavelength of 405 nm along with a 780 nm seed signal beam prepared in a variety of LG modes to generate an 842 nm idler beam of which the spatial mode distribution is measured. We observe strong idler production and good agreement with the theoretical prediction of its spatial mode distribution. Our experimental procedure should enable the efficient determination of the photon-pair wavefunctions produced by low-brightness SPDC sources and the characterization of high-dimensional entangled-photon pairs. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Xu, Yang (ORCID:0009000954547320)↗