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NASA NTRS1992

Advanced statistical methods for improved data analysis of NASA astrophysics missions

The investigators under this grant studied ways to improve the statistical analysis of astronomical data. They looked at existing techniques, the development of new techniques, and the production and distribution of specialized software to the astronomical community. Abstracts of nine papers that were produced are included, as well as brief descriptions of four software packages. The articles that are abstracted discuss analytical and Monte Carlo comparisons of six different linear least squares fits, a (second) paper on linear regression in astronomy, two reviews of public domain software for the astronomer, subsample and half-sample methods for estimating sampling distributions, a nonparametric estimation of survival functions under dependent competing risks, censoring in astronomical data due to nondetections, an astronomy survival analysis computer package called ASURV, and improving the statistical methodology of astronomical data analysis.

Feigelson, Eric D.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Application of Different Statistical Techniques in Integrated Logistics Support of the International Space Station Alpha

The process to predict the values of the maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as mean time between failures (MTBF) over time must be one that will not in turn introduce uncontrolled deviation in the results of the ILS analysis such as life cycle cost spares calculation, etc. A minor deviation in the values of the maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as MTBF over time will have a significant impact on the logistics resources demands, International Space Station availability, and maintenance support costs. It is the objective of this report to identify the magnitude of the expected enhancement in the accuracy of the results for the International Space Station reliability and maintainability data packages by providing examples. These examples partially portray the necessary information hy evaluating the impact of the said enhancements on the life cycle cost and the availability of the International Space Station.

Sepehry-Fard, F.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Aerocapture Systems Analysis for a Titan Mission

Performance projections for aerocapture show a vehicle mass savings of between 40 and 80%, dependent on destination, for an aerocapture vehicle compared to an all-propulsive chemical vehicle. In addition aerocapture is applicable to multiple planetary exploration destinations of interest to NASA. The 2001 NASA In-Space Propulsion Program (ISP) technology prioritization effort identified aerocapture as one of the top three propulsion technologies for solar system exploration missions. An additional finding was that aerocapture needed a better system definition and that supporting technology gaps needed to be identified. Consequently, the ISP program sponsored an aerocapture systems analysis effort that was completed in 2002. The focus of the effort was on aerocapture at Titan with a rigid aeroshell system. Titan was selected as the initial destination for the study due to potential interest in a follow-on mission to Cassini/Huygens. Aerocapture is feasible, and the performance is adequate, for the Titan mission and it can deliver 2.4 times more mass to Titan than an all-propulsive system for the same launch vehicle.

Lockwood, Mary K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Statistics-Based Material Property Analysis to Support TPS Characterization

Accurate characterization of entry capsule heat shield material properties is a critical component in modeling and simulating Thermal Protection System (TPS) response in a prescribed aerothermal environment. The thermal decomposition of the TPS material during the pyrolysis and charring processes is poorly characterized and typically results in large uncertainties in material properties as inputs for ablation models. These material property uncertainties contribute to large design margins on flight systems and cloud re- construction efforts for data collected during flight and ground testing, making revision to existing models for entry systems more challenging. The analysis presented in this work quantifies how material property uncertainties propagate through an ablation model and guides an experimental test regimen aimed at reducing these uncertainties and characterizing the dependencies between properties in the virgin and charred states for a Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) based TPS. A sensitivity analysis identifies how the high-fidelity model behaves in the expected flight environment, while a Monte Carlo based uncertainty propagation strategy is used to quantify the expected spread in the in-depth temperature response of the TPS. An examination of how perturbations to the input probability density functions affect output temperature statistics is accomplished using a Kriging response surface of the high-fidelity model. Simulations are based on capsule configuration and aerothermal environments expected during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) entry sequence. We identify and rank primary sources of uncertainty from material properties in a flight-relevant environment, show the dependence on spatial orientation and in-depth location on those uncertainty contributors, and quantify how sensitive the expected results are.

Copeland, Sean R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

LightForce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Assessment on an Entire Catalogue of Space Debris

The potential to perturb debris orbits using photon pressure from ground-based lasers has been confirmed by independent research teams. Two useful applications of this scheme are protecting space assets from impacts with debris and stabilizing the orbital debris environment, both relying on collision avoidance rather than de-orbiting debris. This paper presents the results of a new assessment method to analyze the efficiency of the concept for collision avoidance. Earlier research concluded that one ground based system consisting of a 10 kW class laser, directed by a 1.5 m telescope with adaptive optics, can prevent a significant fraction of debris-debris collisions in low Earth orbit. That research used in-track displacement to measure efficiency and restricted itself to an analysis of a limited number of objects. As orbit prediction error is dependent on debris object properties, a static displacement threshold should be complemented with another measure to assess the efficiency of the scheme. In this paper we present the results of an approach using probability of collision. Using a least-squares fitting method, we improve the quality of the original TLE catalogue in terms of state and co-state accuracy. We then calculate collision probabilities for all the objects in the catalogue. The conjunctions with the highest risk of collision are then engaged by a simulated network of laser ground stations. After those engagements, the perturbed orbits are used to re-assess the collision probability in a 20 minute window around the original conjunction. We then use different criteria to evaluate the utility of the laser-based collision avoidance scheme and assess the number of base-line ground stations needed to mitigate a significant number of high probability conjunctions. Finally, we also give an account how a laser ground station can be used for both orbit deflection and debris tracking.

laser↗

NASA NTRS1991

The effect of the degree of wave development on the sea state bias in radar altimetry measurement

The extent by which the wave development affects the sea state bias (SSB) in the Geosat altimeter height measurements is investigated. It is shown that the altimetric SSB is not a linear function of the wave height but that it also depends on other factors of wave development, particularly on the wave age (defined as the ratio of the phase speed of the dominant ocean waves to the ocean wind speed). The wave age can be estimated crudely, as the so-called 'pseudo-wave age', on the basis of the significant wave height H(1/3) and the wind speed measured by the altimeter. The analysis of 2.7 years' worth of Geosat data showed a general trend for the dependence of the SSB on the pseudo-wave age, which agrees well with the theoretical prediction that, for a given H(1/3), the SSB decreases as the pseudo-wave age increases.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

NASA NTRS2010

Cryogenic Absorption Cells Operating Inside a Bruker IFS-125HR: First Results for 13CH4 at 7 Micrometers

New absorption cells designed specifically to achieve stable temperatures down to 66 K inside the sample compartment of an evacuated Bruker IFS-125HR Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) were developed at Connecticut College and tested at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The temperature stabilized cryogenic cells with path lengths of 24.29 and 20.38 cm were constructed of oxygen free high conductivity (OFHC) copper and fitted with wedged ZnSe windows using vacuum tight indium seals. In operation, the temperature-controlled cooling by a closed-cycle helium refrigerator achieved stability of 0.01 K. The unwanted absorption features arising from cryodeposits on the cell windows at low temperatures were eliminated by building an internal vacuum shroud box around the cell which significantly minimized the growth of cryodeposits. The effects of vibrations from the closed-cycle helium refrigerator on the FTS spectra were characterized. Using this set up, several high-resolution spectra of methane isotopologues broadened with nitrogen were recorded in the 1200-1800 per centimeter spectral region at various sample temperatures between 79.5 and 296 K. Such data are needed to characterize the temperature dependence of spectral line shapes at low temperatures for remote sensing of outer planets and their moons. Initial analysis of a limited number of spectra in the region of the R(2) manifold of the v4 fundamental band of 13CH4 indicated that an empirical power law used for the temperature dependence of the N2-broadened line widths would fail to fit the observed data in the entire temperature range from 80 to 296 K; instead, it follows a temperature-dependence similar to that reported by Mondelain et al. [17,18]. The initial test was very successful proving that a high precision Fourier transform spectrometer with a completely evacuated optical path can be configured for spectroscopic studies at low temperatures relevant to the planetary atmospheres.

Sung, K.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Stream network analysis and geomorphic flood plain mapping from orbital and suborbital remote sensing imagery application to flood hazard studies in central Texas

The author has identified the following significant results. Development of a quantitative hydrogeomorphic approach to flood hazard evaluation was hindered by (1) problems of resolution and definition of the morphometric parameters which have hydrologic significance, and (2) mechanical difficulties in creating the necessary volume of data for meaningful analysis. Measures of network resolution such as drainage density and basin Shreve magnitude indicated that large scale topographic maps offered greater resolution than small scale suborbital imagery and orbital imagery. The disparity in network resolution capabilities between orbital and suborbital imagery formats depends on factors such as rock type, vegetation, and land use. The problem of morphometric data analysis was approached by developing a computer-assisted method for network analysis. The system allows rapid identification of network properties which can then be related to measures of flood response.

Baker, V. R.↗

NASA NTRS1980

On the application of nonlinear load elements to thermal analyses using the NASTRAN thermal analyzer

The nonlinear load elements in thermal analysis are used to simulate an undocumented nonlinear thermal boundary condition. The treatment of the nonlinearity arising from the temperature-dependent convective film coefficients is shown in detail. As an illustration, emphasis is placed on the modeling techniques and their interrelationships with the solution accuracy as affected by a specific integration algorithm of the transient thermal analysis used in the NASTRAN Thermal Analyzer. Briefly shown is the underlying theory on which the maneuvering of terms pertinent to the modeling depends. This demonstration provides some insight into the intricacies of the method that would be general to all applications. A recommendation is also made to modify a nonlinear load element that will enhance the solution capability and broaden the scope of application.

Lee, H. P.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Coronal closed structures. IV - Hydrodynamical stability and response to heating perturbations

The response of magnetically confined atmospheres to perturbations in the temperature and density distribution, and the local heating rate by means of a one-dimensional time-dependent hydrodynamical code, which incorporates the full energy, momentum and mass conservation equations is studied. These studies extend the linear instability analysis of Habbal and Rosner (1979) into the finite-amplitude regime, and generalize the confined atmosphere models of Serio et al., to the time-dependent domain. The results show that closed coronal atmospheres are stable against finite-amplitude perturbations if the chromospheric response is taken into account; and observed correlated increases in coronal density and temperature can only be achieved under quiescent conditions by increasing the heat deposition rate relatively more in the chromosphere than in the corona.

Peres, G.↗

NASA NTRS2003

New Examination of the Raman Lidar Technique for Water Vapor and Aerosols: Evaluating the Temperature Dependent Lidar Equations - Paper 1

The intent of this paper and its companion is to compile together the essential information required for the analysis of Raman lidar water vapor and aerosol data acquired using a single laser wavelength. In this first paper several details concerning the evaluation of the lidar equation when measuring Raman scattering are considered. These details include the influence of the temperature dependence of both pure rotational and vibrational-rotational Raman scattering on the lidar profile. These are evaluated for the first time using a new form of the lidar equation. The results indicate that, for the range of temperatures encountered in the troposphere, the magnitude of the temperature dependent effect can reach 10% or more for narrowband Raman water vapor measurements. Also the calculation of atmospheric transmission is examined carefully including the effects of depolarization. Different formulations of Rayleigh cross section determination commonly used in the lidar field are compared revealing differences up to 5% among the formulations. The influence of multiple scattering on the measurement of aerosol extinction using the Raman lidar technique is considered as are several photon pulse-pileup correction techniques.

Whiteman, David N.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Energy-absorption capability of composite tubes and beams

In this study the objective was to develop a method of predicting the energy-absorption capability of composite subfloor beam structures. Before it is possible to develop such an analysis capability, an in-depth understanding of the crushing process of composite materials must be achieved. Many variables affect the crushing process of composite structures, such as the constituent materials' mechanical properties, specimen geometry, and crushing speed. A comprehensive experimental evaluation of tube specimens was conducted to develop insight into how composite structural elements crush and what are the controlling mechanisms. In this study the four characteristic crushing modes, transverse shearing, brittle fracturing, lamina bending, and local buckling were identified and the mechanisms that control the crushing process defined. An in-depth understanding was developed of how material properties affect energy-absorption capability. For example, an increase in fiber and matrix stiffness and failure strain can, depending upon the configuration of the tube, increase energy-absorption capability. An analysis to predict the energy-absorption capability of composite tube specimens was developed and verified. Good agreement between experiment and prediction was obtained.

Farley, Gary L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Sequence dependent N-terminal rearrangement and degradation of peptide nucleic acid (PNA) in aqueous solution

The stability of the PNA (peptide nucleic acid) thymine monomer inverted question markN-[2-(thymin-1-ylacetyl)]-N-(2-aminoaminoethyl)glycine inverted question mark and those of various PNA oligomers (5-8-mers) have been measured at room temperature (20 degrees C) as a function of pH. The thymine monomer undergoes N-acyl transfer rearrangement with a half-life of 34 days at pH 11 as analyzed by 1H NMR; and two reactions, the N-acyl transfer and a sequential degradation, are found by HPLC analysis to occur at measurable rates for the oligomers at pH 9 or above. Dependent on the amino-terminal sequence, half-lives of 350 h to 163 days were found at pH 9. At pH 12 the half-lives ranged from 1.5 h to 21 days. The results are discussed in terms of PNA as a gene therapeutic drug as well as a possible prebiotic genetic material.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1993

Temperature induced distortions in space telescope mirrors

In this paper, it is illustrated how measured instantaneous coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) can be accurately taken into account when modeling the structural behavior of space based optical systems. In particular, the importance of including CTE spatial variations in the analysis of optical elements is emphasized. A comparison is made between the CTE's of three optical materials commonly used in the construction of space mirrors (ULE, Zerodur, and beryllium). The overall impact that selection of any one of these materials has on thermal distortions is briefly discussed. As an example of how temperature dependent spatial variations in thermal strain can be accurately incorporated in the thermo-structural analysis of a precision optical system, a finite element model is developed, which is used to estimate the thermally induced distortions in the Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) primary mirror. In addition to the structural analysis, the optical aberrations due to thermally induced distortions are also examined. These calculations indicate that thermal distortions in HST's primary mirror contribute mainly to defocus error with a relatively small contribution to spherical aberration.

Nied, H. F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Addressing the problem of interruptability in the construction of large space structures

Large scale space missions of the near future will depend upon successful multi-launch coordination and construction in the space environment. One of the main challenges is how to accomplish a valid global analysis of a construction project with the intent of improving safety, reducing overall mission cost, and total construction time. These three items are dependent on the interruptability of the project, which is the ability of the project to recover from unplanned interruptions; such as failure of the launch vehicle; sudden, on-orbit, crew illness; or damage from a space debris impact on the partially completed space structure. A new method for addressing and analyzing this type of problem is being developed. The method is called Program Interruptability and Risk Evaluation Technique, or PIRET. PIRET has been developed in order to model and analyze potential interruptability concerns of the construction of the U.S. Space Station Freedom (SSF), although PIRET is applicable to any complex, multi-launch structural assembly. This paper is a progress report on the continuing research of the NASA Center for Space Construction at the University of Colorado, Boulder into this area of space construction interruptability. The paper will define the problem of interruptability, will diagram the PIRET approach to space construction, will share results from a preliminary PIRET analysis of SSF, and will show that PIRET is a useful tool for modelling space construction interruptability.

Davidson, Roger A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Fitts' Law? a Test of the Relationship Between Information Load and Movement Precision

The independence of information load (Hick's Law) and movement precision (Fitts' Law) was tested using additive factors methodology. Subjects were required to classify stimuli according to a decision rule with a variable entropy. The stimuli were presented in the center of the CRT screen. In response, subjects had to move a cursor from a starting point near the stimulus to the appropriate target. The precision of the response movement was varied by manipulating the ratio of the radius of the annulus to the width of the target area. The dependent measure was elapsed time between onset of the stimulus and completion of the response movement. Independence of the Hick's Law and Fitts' Law components of the reaction time was tested with an analysis of variance. Presence of an interaction would suggest that a decision stage and a response stage are dependent, and cannot be considered discrete steps in a serial process.

Zalaski, M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Mission Analysis, Operations, and Navigation Toolkit Environment (Monte) Version 040

Monte is a software set designed for use in mission design and spacecraft navigation operations. The system can process measurement data, design optimal trajectories and maneuvers, and do orbit determination, all in one application. For the first time, a single software set can be used for mission design and navigation operations. This eliminates problems due to different models and fidelities used in legacy mission design and navigation software. The unique features of Monte 040 include a blowdown thruster model for GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) with associated pressure models, as well as an updated, optimalsearch capability (COSMIC) that facilitated mission design for ARTEMIS. Existing legacy software lacked the capabilities necessary for these two missions. There is also a mean orbital element propagator and an osculating to mean element converter that allows long-term orbital stability analysis for the first time in compiled code. The optimized trajectory search tool COSMIC allows users to place constraints and controls on their searches without any restrictions. Constraints may be user-defined and depend on trajectory information either forward or backwards in time. In addition, a long-term orbit stability analysis tool (morbiter) existed previously as a set of scripts on top of Monte. Monte is becoming the primary tool for navigation operations, a core competency at JPL. The mission design capabilities in Monte are becoming mature enough for use in project proposals as well as post-phase A mission design. Monte has three distinct advantages over existing software. First, it is being developed in a modern paradigm: object- oriented C++ and Python. Second, the software has been developed as a toolkit, which allows users to customize their own applications and allows the development team to implement requirements quickly, efficiently, and with minimal bugs. Finally, the software is managed in accordance with the CMMI (Capability Maturity Model Integration), where it has been ap praised at maturity level 3.

Sunseri, Richard F.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument Row Anomaly on the Long-Term Record of Aerosol Products

Since about three years after the launch the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the EOS-Aura satellite, the sensor's viewing capability has been affected by what is believed to be an internal obstruction that has reduced OMI's spatial coverage. It currently affects about half of the instrument's 60 viewing positions. In this work we carry out an analysis to assess the effect of the reduced spatial coverage on the monthly average values of retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD), single scattering albedo (SSA) and the UV Aerosol Index (UVAI) using the 2005-2007 three-year period prior to the onset of the row anomaly. Regional monthly average values calculated using viewing positions 1 through 30 were compared to similarly obtained values using positions 31 through 60, with the expectation of finding close agreement between the two calculations. As expected, mean monthly values of AOD and SSA obtained with these two scattering-angle dependent subsets of OMI observations agreed over regions where carbonaceous or sulphate aerosol particles are the predominant aerosol type. However, over arid regions, where desert dust is the main aerosol type, significant differences between the two sets of calculated regional mean values of AOD were observed. As it turned out, the difference in retrieved desert dust AOD between the scattering-angle dependent observation subsets was due to the incorrect representation of desert dust scattering phase function. A sensitivity analysis using radiative transfer calculations demonstrated that the source of the observed AOD bias was the spherical shape assumption of desert dust particles. A similar analysis in terms of UVAI yielded large differences in the monthly mean values for the two sets of calculations over cloudy regions. On the contrary, in arid regions with minimum cloud presence, the resulting UVAI monthly average values for the two sets of observations were in very close agreement. The discrepancy under cloudy conditions was found to be caused by the parameterization of clouds as opaque Lambertian reflectors. When properly accounting for cloud scattering effects using Mie theory, the observed UVAI angular bias was significantly reduced. The analysis discussed here has uncovered important algorithmic deficiencies associated with the model representation of the angular dependence of scattering effects of desert dust aerosols and cloud droplets. The resulting improvements in the handling of desert dust and cloud scattering have been incorporated in an improved version of the OMAERUV algorithm.

Atmospheric Chemistry↗