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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Exploring the Use of Computer Simulations in Unraveling Research and Development Governance Problems

Understanding Research and Development (R&D) enterprise relationships and processes at a governance level is not a simple task, but valuable decision-making insight and evaluation capabilities can be gained from their exploration through computer simulations. This paper discusses current Modeling and Simulation (M&S) methods, addressing their applicability to R&D enterprise governance. Specifically, the authors analyze advantages and disadvantages of the four methodologies used most often by M&S practitioners: System Dynamics (SO), Discrete Event Simulation (DES), Agent Based Modeling (ABM), and formal Analytic Methods (AM) for modeling systems at the governance level. Moreover, the paper describes nesting models using a multi-method approach. Guidance is provided to those seeking to employ modeling techniques in an R&D enterprise for the purposes of understanding enterprise governance. Further, an example is modeled and explored for potential insight. The paper concludes with recommendations regarding opportunities for concentration of future work in modeling and simulating R&D governance relationships and processes.

Balaban, Mariusz A.↗

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

Seasly, Elaine↗

NASA Fluid Lensing & MiDAR - Next-Generation Remote Sensing Technologies for Aquatic Remote Sensing

Piti's Tepungan Bay and Tumon Bay, two of five marine preserves in Guam, have not been mapped to a level of detail sufficient to support proposed management strategies. This project addresses this gap by providing high resolution maps to promote sustainable, responsible use of the area while protecting natural resources. Dr. Chirayath, a research scientist at the NASA Ames Laboratory, developed a theoretical model and algorithm called 'Fluid Lensing'. Fluid lensing removes optical distortions caused by moving water, improving the clarity of the images taken of the corals below the surface. We will also be using MiDAR, a next-generation remote sensing instrument that provides real-time multispectral video using an array of LED emitters coupled with NASA's FluidCam Imaging System, which may assist Guam's coral reef response team in understanding the severity and magnitude of coral bleaching events. This project will produce a 3D orthorectified model of the shallow water coral reef ecosystems in Tumon Bay and Piti marine preserves. These 3D models may be printed, creating a tactile diorama and increasing understanding of coral reefs among various audiences, including key decision makers. More importantly, the final data products can enable accurate and quantitative health assessment capabilities for coral reef ecosystems.

Aquatic↗

An Integrated Reliability and Physics-Based Risk Modeling Approach for Assessing Human Spaceflight Systems

This paper presents an integrated reliability and physics-based risk modeling approach for assessing human spaceflight systems. The approach is demonstrated using an example, end-to-end risk assessment of a generic-crewed space transportation system during a reference mission to the International Space Station. The behavior of the system is modeled using analysis techniques from multiple disciplines in order to properly capture the dynamic time- and state- dependent consequences of failures encountered in different mission phases. We discuss how to combine traditional reliability analyses with Monte Carlo simulation methods and physics-based engineering models to produce loss-of- mission and loss-of-crew risk estimates supporting risk-based decision-making and requirement verification. This approach facilitates risk-informed design by providing more realistic representation of system failures and interactions; identifying key risk-driving sensitivities, dependencies, and assumptions; and tracking multiple figures of merit within a single, responsive assessment framework that can readily incorporate evolving design information throughout system development.

Risk assessment↗

Evapotranspiration-Based Irrigation Scheduling in Cool-Season Vegetables

Crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is strongly linked with photosynthetically active vegetation fraction (Fc). Estimation of ETc may support efficiency gains in irrigation water management, which in turn can mitigate nitrate leaching, promote water supply sustainability, and reduce energy costs associated with water pumping or transport. The University of California Cooperative Extension operates the CropManage (CM) model as a freely-available web-application for growers and consultants to support irrigation and nitrogen scheduling decisions. CM accounts for the rapid growth and typically brief cycle of cool-season vegetables, where Fc and crop coefficient (fraction of reference ET) can change daily during canopy development. Daily weather conditions are inherently accounted for by use of grass reference ETo data imported from the California Dept. Water Resources. Crop water requirement calculations are output in terms of irrigation system runtime. Empirical equations are used to estimate daily Fc time-series for a given crop type, primarily as a function of planting date and expected harvest. An applications programming interface (API) enables CM to import satellite-based Fc observations from NASA's Satellite Irrigation Management Support, which uses Landsat imagery to monitor about eight million irrigation acres statewide. The API is intended to provide a check on internal CM predictions of Fc and to facilitate expansion of the web-app to new crops and regions. A replicated irrigation trial was performed on cauliflower during spring/summer 2018 at the USDA Agricultural Research Station in Salinas, CA. The crop was established by sprinkler irrigation, and CropManage was then used to guide a series of drip irrigation treatments at 50%, 75%, 100%, and 150% of ETc replacement levels. Results will be presented with respect to water use efficiency, nitrogen use efficiency, biomass yield, and marketable yield. Additional findings will be presented for a celery trial harvested during autumn 2018.

Johnson, Lee↗

South Carolina Water Resources Project Summary - Implementing the Unvegetated-Vegetated Ratio to Assess Salt Marsh Vulnerability in South Carolina Using Airborne and Space-Based Remote Sensing Imagery

Among the most productive ecosystems on earth, salt marshes provide crucial ecosystem services including water filtration, shoreline protection, storm surge buffering, and flood mitigation. Marshes are largely dependent on their sediment budget which can significantly vary across a region. Upstream land use change near Charleston, South Carolina, along with rising sea levels, are expected to alter sediment budgets and threaten marsh stability and long-term health. The unvegetated-vegetated ratio (UVVR) is a scalable and efficient method to assess vulnerability. This NASA DEVELOP project collaborated with the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, and the United States Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center. Marsh vulnerability was analyzed using UVVR derived from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) in conjunction with National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) high-resolution aerial imagery. A Landsat random forest regression showed a low correlation (r2 = 0.247) between Landsat 7 ETM+ bands and NAIP aggregated UVVR suggesting the need for a more complex model and higher resolution sensors. Google Earth Engine scripting provided a novel approach to UVVR methodology that will allow decision makers to input new marsh areas and easily calculate UVVR without external data downloading.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

ArcjetCV: a new machine learning application for extracting time-resolved recession measurements from arc jet test videos

Arc jet Computer Vision (ArcjetCV) is a software application built to automate analysis of arc jet ground test video footage. This includes tracking material recession, sting arm motion, and the shock-material standoff distance. This provides a new capability to resolve and validate new physics associated with non-linear processes. This is an essential step to reduce testing, modeling, and validation uncertainties for heatshield material performance. ArcjetCV uses several types of machine learning (convolutional neural net: CNN, decision tree: DT, k-means unsupervised clustering: KM) to automate the video processing pipeline. These include inferring the start/stop of time segments of interest (1D CNN), measuring the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples (2D CNN, DT), measuring the time-dependent shock standoff distance (2D CNN, DT), and post-processing cleaning of the recession data (KM). The software also provides a graphical user interface for ease of use. The results of using this tool on arc jet videos show non-linear time-dependent effects can be important for certain materials.

machine learning↗

New York Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Map Ash Distribution and Inform Emerald Ash Borer Control

Since their first sightings in the U.S. in 2002, emerald ash borer beetles (Agrilus planipennis; EAB) have killed millions of native ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees across 35 states. Infected ash stands frequently exhibit complete mortality, with the predicted result being the functional extinction of native ash in U.S. forests. In August of 2020, EAB was discovered in the 6.1-million-acre Adirondack Park. The team’s partners at the Adirondack Park Invasive Plant Program (APIPP) desired ash tree distribution and EAB susceptibility information to help improve EAB bio-control efficiency and apply the methodology to future invasive programs. To assist, the team mapped ash tree distribution using NASA Earth observations from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), along with hyperspectral imagery from the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). Field data from the Monitoring and Managing Ash (MaMA) project, iMapInvasives and iNaturalist databases, and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) provided ground truthing for mapping and modeling. Results indicate that for ash detection, the team’s Spectral Angle Mapping (SAM) hyperspectral classification is slightly more sensitive but less accurate than multispectral Random Forest (RF) classification, though neither method was above a ~20% detection rate. End products include maps of ash extent derived from both imagery types, a model forecasting future spread scenarios based on current EAB presence, and outreach materials. These products inform APIPP’s management decisions and facilitate public awareness of EAB’s threat to communities within the region.

Liam Megraw↗

ArcjetCV: A New Machine Learning Application for Extracting Time-Resolved Recession Measurements From Arc Jet Test Videos

Arc jet Computer Vision (ArcjetCV) is a software application built to automate analysis of arc jet ground test video footage. This includes tracking material recession, sting arm motion, and the shock-material standoff distance. This provides a new capability to resolve and validate new physics associated with non-linear processes. This is an essential step to reduce testing, modeling, and validation uncertainties for heatshield material performance. ArcjetCV uses several types of machine learning (convolutional neural net: CNN, decision tree: DT, k-means unsupervised clustering: KM) to automate the video processing pipeline. These include inferring the start/stop of time segments of interest (1D CNN), measuring the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples (2D CNN, DT), measuring the time-dependent shock standoff distance (2D CNN, DT), and post-processing cleaning of the recession data (KM). The software also provides a graphical user interface for ease of use. The results of using this tool on arc jet videos show non-linear time-dependent effects can be important for certain materials.

machine learning↗

ArcjetCV: A New Machine Learning Application for Extracting Time-Resolved Recession Measurements From Arc Jet Test Videos

Arc jet Computer Vision (ArcjetCV) is a software application built to automate analysis of arc jet ground test video footage. This includes tracking material recession and the shock-material standoff distance. This provides a new capability to resolve and validate new physics associated with non-linear processes. This is an essential step to reduce testing, modeling, and validation uncertainties for heatshield material performance. ArcjetCV uses several types of machine learning (convolutional neural net: CNN, decision tree: DT, k-means unsupervised clustering: KM) to automate the video processing pipeline. These include inferring the start/stop of time segments of interest (1D CNN), measuring the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples (2D CNN, DT), measuring the time-dependent shock standoff distance (2D CNN, DT), and post-processing cleaning of the recession data (KM). The software also provides a graphical user interface for ease of use. The results of using this tool on arc jet videos show non-linear time-dependent effects can be important for certain materials and characterizing certain failure modes.

machine learning↗

arcjetCV: A New Machine Learning Application for Extracting Time-Resolved Recession Measurements From Arc Jet Test Videos

Arc jet Computer Vision (ArcjetCV) is a software application built to automate analysis of arc jet ground test video footage. This includes tracking material recession and the shock-material standoff distance. This provides a new capability to resolve and validate new physics associated with non-linear processes. This is an essential step to reduce testing, modeling, and validation uncertainties for heatshield material performance. ArcjetCV uses several types of machine learning (convolutional neural net: CNN, decision tree: DT, k-means unsupervised clustering: KM) to automate the video processing pipeline. These include inferring the start/stop of time segments of interest (1D CNN), measuring the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples (2D CNN, DT), measuring the time-dependent shock standoff distance (2D CNN, DT), and post-processing cleaning of the recession data (KM). The software also provides a graphical user interface for ease of use. The results of using this tool on arc jet videos show non-linear time-dependent effects can be important for certain materials and characterizing certain failure modes.

machine learning↗

arcjetCV: automating recession extraction from video

Arc jet Computer Vision (arcjetCV)[1][2] is a software application built to automate time-resolved recession tracking of edges in test videos, specifically for tracking material recession and the shock-material standoff. This provides a new capability to resolve and validate new physics associated with non-linear processes and an essential step to reduce testing, modeling, and validation uncertainties for heatshield material performance. ArcticCV uses several types of machine learning (convolutional neural net: CNN, decision tree: DT, k-means unsupervised clustering: KM) to automate the video processing pipeline. These include inferring the start/stop of time segments of interest (1D CNN), measuring the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples (2D CNN, DT), measuring the time-dependent shock standoff distance (2D CNN, DT), and post-processing cleaning of the recession data (KM). The software also provides a graphical user interface for ease of use. The results of using this tool on arc jet videos show non-linear time-dependent effects can be important for certain materials and characterizing certain failure modes.

Recession tracking↗

ArcjetCV: Automating Recession Tracking

Arc jet Computer Vision (arcjetCV) is a software application built to automate time-resolved recession tracking of edges in test videos, specifically for tracking material recession and the shock-material standoff. This provides a new capability to resolve and validate new physics associated with non-linear processes and an essential step to reduce testing, modeling, and validation uncertainties for heatshield material performance. ArcticCV uses several types of machine learning (convolutional neural net: CNN, decision tree: DT, k-means unsupervised clustering: KM) to automate the video processing pipeline. These include inferring the start/stop of time segments of interest (1D CNN), measuring the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples (2D CNN, DT), measuring the time-dependent shock standoff distance (2D CNN, DT), and post-processing cleaning of the recession data (KM). The software also provides a graphical user interface for ease of use. The results of using this tool on arc jet videos show non-linear time-dependent effects can be important for certain materials and characterizing certain failure modes.

Recession tracking↗

ArcjetCV: Automating Arc Jet Analysis

Arc jet Computer Vision (arcjetCV) is a software application built to automate time-resolved recession tracking of edges in test videos, specifically for tracking material recession and the shock-material standoff. This provides a new capability to resolve and validate new physics associated with non-linear processes and an essential step to reduce testing, modeling, and validation uncertainties for heatshield material performance. ArcticCV uses several types of machine learning (convolutional neural net: CNN, decision tree: DT, k-means unsupervised clustering: KM) to automate the video processing pipeline. These include inferring the start/stop of time segments of interest (1D CNN), measuring the time-dependent 2D recession of the material samples (2D CNN, DT), measuring the time-dependent shock standoff distance (2D CNN, DT), and post-processing cleaning of the recession data (KM). The software also provides a graphical user interface for ease of use. The results of using this tool on arc jet videos show non-linear time-dependent effects can be important for certain materials and characterizing certain failure modes.

Recession tracking↗

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗

A Science-Focused Artificial Intelligence (AI) Responding in Real-Time to New Information: Capability Demonstration for Ocean World Missions

Introduction: Artificial intelligence (AI) has long been considered a potential mechanism to explore increasingly challenging environments, including those with extreme temperatures and pressures, limited communication capabilities, or those with demanding terrain. We posit that missions in extreme environments could deploy an onboard AI focused on science observations and goals in order to augment a traditional concept(s) of operations (ConOps). An onboard AI capability could perform functions such as data analysis in order to make high-level decisions, including prioritized data transmission for analysis by ground-based teams or autonomously-guided follow-on analyses that maximize science return. Such a capability would empower missions to respond to scientific data of interest in real-time; a mission could make observations and perform a preliminary analysis to alert ground-based scientists to an observation of interest, enabling an informed, rapid response from Earth-based teams. Enceladus Case Study for Onboard AI: We are developing an onboard AI capability for real-time telemetry response that formulates and carries-out informed decisions in service to established mission goals, enabling increased science return of a mission. We focus our AI development for use on a constellation of SmallSats orbiting Enceladus. Our Enceladus case study tests autonomous decision-making capabilities in scenarios with complex orbital dynamics, plume ejecta, extreme cold environments, power restrictions, and a requirement to maximize science return for a potential positive detection of life, while critically evaluating the potential for false positives. Telemetry includes simulated scientific data, spacecraft onboard operational data (e.g., position, velocity, and rotation), and engineering hardware performance data. Enceladus SmallSat Constellation. Our constellation includes eight SmallSat spacecraft in an 8:35 resonant orbit-based formation, leveraging Saturn’s gravitational forces to maintain stable orbits with global coverage around Enceladus. To our knowledge, we simulate the first stable configuration of multiple spacecraft in closed orbits around Enceladus, using a full ephemeris force model (Russell and Lara, 2009). Each spacecraft’s orbit will precess, causing an eastward ground track shift (from an orbiter’s perspective) of each spacecraft for each orbit. However, all spacecraft return to their original positions relative to Enceladus after eight Enceladus revolutions around Saturn. We model communication pathways between SmallSats to understand how information would need to be transmitted across the constellation to enable AI-driven decision-making and resource allocation across the fleet. Capability Demonstration. Our simulated capability demonstration inputs position, velocity, and rotation telemetry from our Enceladus-focused constellation simulations, and mass spectrometry data collected from abiotic and biotic laboratory-analog ocean world experiments (Theiling et al., 2018; Theiling, 2021; Da Poian et al., 2023). Data from these experiments are used to simulate MS measurements and different scenarios of science observations for onboard analysis performed on each of the eight spacecraft. For these demonstrations, we integrate 24 machine learning (ML) algorithms into an onboard intelligence as a ‘knowledge base’, including algorithms evaluating data quality and those predicting (with % confidence) gas composition, ocean aqueous chemistry, and whether the sample was influenced by microbial life. The onboard AI capability is designed to use the knowledge base to come to a consensus-based decision in the interpretation of the observed data in order to request additional action outside of a pre-defined ConOps. Requested actions could include e.g., prioritized downlink to Earth (for analysis by ground-based teams) or follow-on analyses performed across the constellation. The spacecraft’s intelligent onboard planner must then determine whether sufficient resources (e.g., time, power, etc.) are available and weigh the request with mission priorities. In our simulation, the constellation is able to identify potential biosignatures using onboard ML algorithms, evaluate the confidence of that prediction, and perform follow-on analyses across the fleet to confirm the detection, in order to best prepare a transmission of these data to Earth-based teams.

astrobiology↗

Coupled Reactor Multiphysics and Mass Scalability Assessment for Crewed Megawatt-Class NEP System Architectures

Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) is an in-space propulsion technology capable of enabling opposition and conjunction class crewed Mars missions. NEP subsystems include the reactor for heat generation, a power conversion system (PCS), power management and distribution (PMAD), electric propulsion subsystem (EPS), and a primary heat rejection system. Specific mass, or αe (kg / kWe), is a key performance parameter (KPP) of the propulsion system which is directly scalable with the performance and mass estimates for individual components. To inform technology maturation planning, full system and component level parametric modeling is ongoing to explore the design trade space and illustrate the effect of subsystem design choices on the system KPPs. In this study, scaling of high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) reactor designs is assessed through coupled reactor physics and thermal hydraulics analyses. Scaling analyses evaluate the impact of system performance parameters (power level, interface temperatures) on mass for direct gas cooled, pumped liquid metal, and passively cooled heat pipe reactor concepts. Each concept requires specific geometries and working fluids to reach the performance goals of PCS interface conditions (temperature, pressure, flow rate) and system mass. The reactor assembly includes the active core (fuel, moderator, cladding, working fluid), axial and radial neutron reflectors, control drums, structural support / pressure vessel, and external radiation shielding. Each of these components are parametrically sized based on performance parameters for a megawatt-class power cycle. Results of this scaling analysis increase NEP propulsion system modeling fidelity and ultimately aim to support technology down-selection along with related technology development planning. The reactor and shield αe are a function of several PCS design choices, and reactor scaling with these parameters must be considered to enable an informed decision on reactor geometry and working fluid combination.

Nuclear Electric Propulsion↗

Data Assimilation Enhancements to Air Force Weather’s Land Information System

The United States Air Force (USAF) has a proud and storied tradition of enabling significant advancements in the area of characterizing and modeling land state information. 557th Weather Wing (557 WW; DoD’s Executive Agent for Land Information) provides routine geospatial intelligence information to warfighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, government and intelligence community. 557 WW and its predecessors have been home to the DoD’s only operational regional and global land data analysis systems since January 1958. As a trusted partner since 2005, Air Force Weather (AFW) has relied on the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA/GSFC to lead the interagency scientific collaboration known as the Land Information System (LIS). LIS is an advanced software framework for high performance land surface modeling and data assimilation of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) information.

Wegiel, Jerry↗