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DOE OSTI2022

Avista CEF2 Shared Energy Economy: Modeling and Simulation

This research project supported Avista’s Shared Energy Economy (SEE) Project in Spokane’s University District (UDistrict), as funded by the WA Department of Commerce Clean Energy Fund (CEF) Phase 2. The SEE project comprises a microgrid with two campus buildings, two solar photovoltaic generators, and two batteries. The microgrid can operate grid-connected or off-grid. This research project included modeling the buildings and other microgrid components, simulating a transactive energy system, and supporting Avista’s testing of different use cases for the WA Department of Commerce. The main research finding is that buildings can be modeled successfully in a data-driven approach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

DATA-DRIVEN DISCOVERY OF DYNAMICS FROM TIME-RESOLVED COHERENT SCATTERING

This software implements a data-driven framework to uncover mechanistic models of dynamics directly from time-resolved coherent X-ray scattering measurements. It employs neural differential equations to parameterize unknown real-space dynamics and incorporates a computational scattering forward model to relate real-space predictions to reciprocal-space observations.

Zhou, Tao↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flavor as an Incomplete Structure: Conceptual Questions and the Role of DUNE

Flavor remains one of the most successful yet least understood structures of the Standard Model. The discovery of the Higgs boson completed the electroweak account of mass generation, but did not explain the origin of fermion families, mass hierarchies, or mixing patterns. In this sense, flavor can be regarded as an empirically successful but conceptually incomplete structure. Neutrinos occupy a particularly sensitive place within this problem: their masses are tiny, their mixing is large, and their mass-generation mechanism may differ from that of charged fermions. In this article, we discuss flavor as an open conceptual problem and argue that DUNE, as a phased program spanning precision oscillation measurements and sensitivity to BSM and dark-sector phenomena, provides a powerful framework for testing the self-consistency and possible limits of the present three-flavor description. In particular, the complementarity between the long-baseline program and the Phase I near-detector complex, together with the DUNE-PRISM strategy for controlling interaction-model systematics and enabling data-driven near-to-far predictions, makes DUNE especially well-suited to search for small, correlated departures from the minimal flavor framework.

Montanari, Claudio S. [Fermilab; INFN, Pavia] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven reevaluation of f t values in superallowed β decays

We present a comprehensive reevaluation of the ft values in superallowed nuclear β decays crucial for the precise determination of V ud and low-energy tests of the electroweak standard model. It consists of the first, fully data-driven analysis of the nuclear β decay form factor, that utilizes isospin relations to connect the nuclear charged weak distribution to the measurable charge distributions. This prescription supersedes previous shell-model estimations, and allows for a rigorous quantification of theory uncertainties in f which is absent in the existing literature. Furthermore, our new evaluation shows an overall downward shift of the central values of f at the level of 0.01%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving Short Term Predictability of Hydrologic Models with Deep Learning

Focal Area: Focal Area 2. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Science Challenge: A major challenge exists in the lack of reliable predictive modeling of water-cycle extremes using macro-scale hydrologic models that are driven by atmospheric climate data. This causes a critical knowledge gap in understanding the magnitudes, probabilities, and severity of droughts, rainfall, and flooding. Improved understanding of these extreme events requires more accurate modeling at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This shortcoming is especially apparent when complex couplings between atmospheric quantities and engineered systems emerge, such as during extreme precipitation or drought events and at intersections of atmospheric-land-fluvial-ocean systems. Added complexity around representing operations of engineered infrastructure leads to a limited capability to analyze the temporal and spatial implications of compounding extreme events across inland and coastal regions. This results in profound challenges for water and power systems operators, agriculture production, and regional infrastructure planning. The science challenge can be summarized as How can we use AI/ML to improve short term predictability of extreme water-cycle events and associated risk, especially compounding events and extreme rainfall patterns that result in flooding, to inland and coastal communities under different climate scenarios?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep learning interfacial momentum closures in coarse-mesh CFD two-phase flow simulation using validation data

Multiphase flow phenomena have been widely observed in the industrial applications while it remains a challenging yet unsolved problems. Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approaches resolve the flow fields on a finer special and temporal scales which can complement the dedicated experimental study. However, closures have to be introduced to reflect the underlying physics in multiphase flow. Among them, the interfacial forces, including drag, lift, turbulent dispersion and wall lubrication forces, play in important role on the bubble’s distribution and migration in liquid-vapor two-phase flow. Development of those closures traditionally rely on the experimental data and analytical derivation with simplified assumptions which usually cannot deliver a universal solution across wide range of flow conditions. In this paper, a data-driven approach, named as Feature Similarity Measurement (FSM), is developed and applied to improve the simulation capability of two-phase flow with coarse-mesh CFD approach. Interfacial momentum transfer in adiabatic bubbly flow serves as the focus of the present study. Both a mature and a simplified set of interfacial closures are taken as the low fidelity data. Experimental data and fine mesh CFD simulations results are adopted as high-fidelity data. Qualitative and quantitative analysis are performed in this paper which reveals that FSM can substantially improve the prediction of coarse mesh CFD model regardless of the choice of interfacial closures and it provides scalability and consistency across discontinuous flow regimes. Furthermore, it demonstrates that data-driven method can aid the multiphase flow modeling by exploring the connections between local physical features and simulation errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Current and Future Infrastructure Hazards

Project Objective Execute intelligent analytics via an advanced analytical framework, to assess the current state of offshore infrastructure, evaluate infrastructure life, and identify technologies to reduce infrastructure hazards, costs, and extend infrastructure life. Approach & Results thus Far• Build comprehensive dataset• Perform data-driven analytics to evaluate infrastructure integrity 1. Remaining lifespan 2. Likelihood of future risk• Apply data-driven advanced spatial, statistical, and Machine Learning (ML) models to quantify existing infrastructure integrity• Release data and models through a smart, online platform hosted by Energy Data eXchange (EDX)

Romeo, Lucy F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the San Francisco Bay-Delta using a GA- Optimized Neural Net, and Application of the Model to Prediction in the Elkhorn Slough Habitat

The San Francisco Bay Delta is a large hydrodynamic complex that incorporates the Sacramento and San Joaquin Estuaries, the Burman Marsh, and the San Francisco Bay proper. Competition exists for the use of this extensive water system both from the fisheries industry, the agricultural industry, and from the marine and estuarine animal species within the Delta. As tidal fluctuations occur, more saline water pushes upstream allowing fish to migrate beyond the Burman Marsh for breeding and habitat occupation. However, the agriculture industry does not want extensive salinity intrusion to impact water quality for human and plant consumption. The balance is regulated by pumping stations located alone the estuaries and reservoirs whereby flushing of fresh water keeps the saline intrusion at bay. The pumping schedule is driven by data collected at various locations within the Bay Delta and by numerical models that predict the salinity intrusion as part of a larger model of the system. The Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary collects, monitors, and archives the data, and the Department of Water Resources provides a numerical model simulation (DSM2) from which predictions are made that drive the pumping schedule. A problem with this procedure is that the numerical simulation takes roughly 16 hours to complete a C:~ prediction. We have created a neural net, optimized with a genetic algorithm, that takes as input the archived data from multiple stations and predicts stage, salinity, and flow at the Carquinez Straits (at the downstream end of the Burman Marsh). This model seems to be robust in its predictions and operates much faster than the current numerical DSM2 model. Because the system is strongly tidal driven, we used both Principal Component Analysis and Fast Fourier Transforms to discover dominant features within the IEP data. We then filtered out the dominant tidal forcing to discover non-primary tidal effects, and used this to enhance the neural network by mapping input-output relationships in a more efficient manner. Furthermore, the neural network implicitly incorporates both the hydrodynamic and water quality models into a single predictive system. Although our model has not yet been enhanced to demonstrate improve pumping schedules, it has the possibility to support better decision-making procedures that may then be implemented by State agencies if desired. Our intention is now to use this model in the smaller Elkhorn Slough complex near Monterey Bay where no such hydrodynamic model currently exists. At the Elkhorn Slough, we are fusing the neural net model of tidally-driven flow with in situ flow data and airborne and satellite remote sensation data. These further constrain the behavior of the model in predicting the longer-term health and future of this vital estuary.

Thompson, David E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A reduced-order model for nonlinear radiative transfer problems based on moment equations and POD-Petrov-Galerkin projection of the normalized Boltzmann transport equation

A data-driven projection-based reduced-order model (ROM) for nonlinear thermal radiative transfer (TRT) problems is presented. The TRT ROM is formulated by (i) a hierarchy of low-order quasidiffusion (aka variable Eddington factor) equations for moments of the radiation intensity and (ii) the normalized Boltzmann transport equation (BTE). The multilevel system of moment equations is derived by projection of the BTE onto a sequence of subspaces which represent elements of the phase space of the problem. Exact closure for the moment equations is provided by the Eddington tensor. A Petrov-Galerkin (PG) projection of the normalized BTE is formulated using a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) basis representing the normalized radiation intensity over the whole phase space and time. The Eddington tensor linearly depends on the solution of the normalized BTE. By linear superposition of the POD basis functions, a low-rank expansion of the Eddington tensor is constructed with coefficients defined by the PG projected normalized BTE. The material energy balance (MEB) equation is coupled with the effective gray low-order equations which exist on the same dimensional scale as the MEB equation. The resulting TRT ROM is structure and asymptotic preserving. A detailed analysis of the ROM is performed on the classical Fleck-Cummings (F-C) TRT multigroup test problem in 2D geometry. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the ROM's effectiveness in the simulation of radiation wave phenomena. Importantly, the ROM is shown to produce solutions with sufficiently high accuracy while using low-rank approximation of the normalized BTE solution. Essential physical characteristics of supersonic radiation wave are preserved in the ROM solutions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1992

A catchment scale water balance model for FIFE

A catchment scale water balance model is presented and used to predict evaporation from the King's Creek catchment at the First ISLSCP Field Experiment site on the Konza Prairie, Kansas. The model incorporates spatial variability in topography, soils, and precipitation to compute the land surface hydrologic fluxes. A network of 20 rain gages was employed to measure rainfall across the catchment in the summer of 1987. These data were spatially interpolated and used to drive the model during storm periods. During interstorm periods the model was driven by the estimated potential evaporation, which was calculated using net radiation data collected at site 2. Model-computed evaporation is compared to that observed, both at site 2 (grid location 1916-BRS) and the catchment scale, for the simulation period from June 1 to October 9, 1987.

Famiglietti, J. S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Forte: An Interactive Visual Analytic Tool for Trust-Augmented Net-Load Forecasting

Accurate net-load forecasting is vital for energy planning, aiding decisions on trade and load distribution. However, assessing the performance of forecasting models across diverse input variables, like temperature and humidity, remains challenging, particularly for eliciting a high degree of trust in the model outcomes. In this context, there is a growing need for data-driven technological interventions to aid scientists in comprehending how models react to both noisy and clean input variables, thus shedding light on complex behaviors and fostering confidence in the outcomes. In this paper, we present Forte, a visual analytics-based application to explore deep probabilistic net-load forecasting models across various input variables and understand the error rates for different scenarios. With carefully designed visual interventions, this web-based interface empowers scientists to derive insights about model performance by simulating diverse scenarios, facilitating an informed decision-making process. We discuss observations made using Forte and demonstrate the effectiveness of visualization techniques to provide valuable insights into the correlation between weather inputs and net-load forecasts, ultimately advancing grid capabilities by improving trust in forecasting models.

Bhattacharjee, Kaustav↗

NASA NTRS2022

Hybrid Model Based Approaches for Systems Health Management and Prognostics

This is a previously approved and published presentation. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Present achievements of data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can solve the prediction problem and further decision-making. In principle, data-driven approaches can replace expensive experimental test-setups as well as reduce the number of simulations needed to explore, e.g., the parametric space of a multi-parameter model. Nonetheless, the limitations of pure data-driven methods came to light rather quickly, at least for some industries. In many industrial applications, data acquisition is costly, and the volume of data that can be collected does not satisfy the requirements for effective model training and cross-validation. Therefore, some recent works in the area of machine learning is focusing on blending physics with data-driven algorithms, thus mitigating the drawbacks of the two approaches and emphasizing respective advantages. Partial physical knowledge of the problem can aid the learning process by “guiding” the algorithm towards efficient solutions that satisfy the physics driving the system behavior. The result is a hybrid modeling approach combining physical knowledge as well data-driven methods to develop a unified hybrid approach. A hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety-critical systems is presented. In this framework, physics-based performance models infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem in the deep learning approach.

Prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Derivative-based SINDy (DSINDy): Addressing the challenge of discovering governing equations from noisy data

Recent advances in the field of data-driven dynamics allow for the discovery of ODE systems using state measurements. One approach, known as Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy), assumes the dynamics are sparse within a predetermined basis in the states and finds the expansion coefficients through linear regression with sparsity constraints. This approach requires an accurate estimation of the state time derivatives, which is not necessarily possible in the high-noise regime without additional constraints. We present an approach called Derivative-based SINDy (DSINDy) that combines two novel methods to improve ODE recovery at high-noise levels. First, we denoise the state variables by applying a projection operator that leverages the assumed basis for the system dynamics. Second, we use a second order cone program (SOCP) to find the derivative and governing equations simultaneously. We derive theoretical results for the projection-based denoising step, which allow us to estimate the values of hyperparameters used in the SOCP formulation. This underlying theory helps limit the number of required user-specified parameters. Finally, we present results demonstrating that our approach leads to improved system recovery for the Van der Pol oscillator, the Duffing oscillator, the Rössler attractor, and the Lorenz 96 model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accurate data-driven surrogates of dynamical systems for forward propagation of uncertainty

Stochastic collocation (SC) is a well-known non-intrusive method of constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification. In dynamical systems, SC is especially suited for full-field uncertainty propagation that characterizes the distributions of the high-dimensional solution fields of a model with stochastic input parameters. However, due to the highly nonlinear nature of the parameter-to-solution map in even the simplest dynamical systems, the constructed SC surrogates are often inaccurate. Here, this work presents an alternative approach, where we apply the SC approximation over the dynamics of the model, rather than the solution. By combining the data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics framework with SC, we construct dynamics surrogates and integrate them through time to construct the surrogate solutions. We demonstrate that the SC-over-dynamics framework leads to smaller errors, both in terms of the approximated system trajectories as well as the model state distributions, when compared against full-field SC applied to the solutions directly. We present numerical evidence of this improvement using three test problems: a chaotic ordinary differential equation, and two partial differential equations from solid mechanics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗

DOE OSTI2023

Using Data-Driven Prediction of Downstream 1D River Flow to Overcome the Challenges of Hydrologic River Modeling

Methods for downstream river flow prediction can be categorized into physics-based and empirical approaches. Although based on well-studied physical relationships, physics-based models rely on numerous hydrologic variables characteristic of the specific river system that can be costly to acquire. Moreover, simulation is often computationally intensive. Conversely, empirical models require less information about the system being modeled and can capture a system’s interactions based on a smaller set of observed data. This article introduces two empirical methods to predict downstream hydraulic variables based on observed stream data: a linear programming (LP) model, and a convolutional neural network (CNN). We apply both empirical models within the Colorado River system to a site located on the Green River, downstream of the Yampa River confluence and Flaming Gorge Dam, and compare it to the physics-based model Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) currently used by federal agencies. Results show that both proposed models significantly outperform the SSARR model. Moreover, the CNN model outperforms the LP model for hourly predictions whereas both perform similarly for daily predictions. Although less accurate than the CNN model at finer temporal resolution, the LP model is ideal for linear water scheduling tools.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using probability distribution function as a scaling approach to incorporate soil heterogeneity into biogeochemical models for greenhouse gas predictions (Final Technical Report)

The project investigated biogeochemical processes at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs), focusing on soil microsite heterogeneity and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. Using laboratory experiments, modeling, and data integration, researchers explored redox-driven microbial processes under fluctuating hydrological conditions. Key advancements included modifying the DAMM-GHG model to incorporateelectron acceptor availability and enhancing the AquaMEND model for improved microbial metabolism representation. Results highlighted microsite redox variability as a key driver of GHG fluxes, informing Earth system models. The project fostered interdisciplinary collaborations, student training, and the development of novel modeling frameworks to improve Earth'senergy budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1986

Petri net model for analysis of concurrently processed complex algorithms

This paper presents a Petri-net model suitable for analyzing the concurrent processing of computationally complex algorithms. The decomposed operations are to be processed in a multiple processor, data driven architecture. Of particular interest is the application of the model to both the description of the data/control flow of a particular algorithm, and to the general specification of the data driven architecture. A candidate architecture is also presented.

Stoughton, John W.↗