Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,171 records · Page 65

The numerical evaluation of maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters for a mixture of normal distributions from partially identified samples

Likelihood equations determined by the two types of samples which are necessary conditions for a maximum-likelihood estimate are considered. These equations, suggest certain successive-approximations iterative procedures for obtaining maximum-likelihood estimates. These are generalized steepest ascent (deflected gradient) procedures. It is shown that, with probability 1 as N sub 0 approaches infinity (regardless of the relative sizes of N sub 0 and N sub 1, i=1,...,m), these procedures converge locally to the strongly consistent maximum-likelihood estimates whenever the step size is between 0 and 2. Furthermore, the value of the step size which yields optimal local convergence rates is bounded from below by a number which always lies between 1 and 2.

Walker, H. F.↗

Grain abundance in the primordial atmosphere of the earth

For models of planetary accumulation in the presence of solar nebular gas, the initial surface temperature of the earth is controlled by the grain opacity of the atmosphere. The surface temperature in turn controls the quantity of neon dissolved and trapped within the interior of the earth. To compare accumulation theory with observation, calculations have been made of the grain opacity expected to be associated with accumulation in a gaseous nebula. There are two parameters that are in principle determined by the theory, but actually are at present uncertain: the mean eccentricity(e) of the planetesimal swarm, and the fraction (xi) of the accretional energy that is expended in the release of grains into the atmosphere by ablation of the incoming planetesimal. It is found that if e is low (0.001), rather low values of xi (0.00001) are required to match the observed neon data. In contrast higher values of xi (0.1) are required for the most probable case with e = 0.01. For the high-eccentricity case (e = 0.1), xi must be greater than 0.01. The results show that avoidance of excess trapped neon of solar composition places restrictive, but not necessarily impossible, conditions on the parameters of the accumulation theory.

Mizuno, H.↗

The evolution of complex and higher organisms

The evolution of Phanerozoic life has probably been influenced by extraterrestrial events and properties of the Earth-Moon system that have not, until now, been widely recognized. Tide range, gravitational strength, the Earth's axial tilt, and other planetary properties provide background conditions whose effects on evolution may be difficult to distinguish. Solar flares, asteroid impacts, supernovae, and passage of the solar system through galactic clouds can provide catastrophic changes on the Earth with consequent characteristic extinctions. Study of the fossil record and the evolution of complex Phanerozoic life can reveal evidence of past disturbances in space near the Earth. Conversely, better understanding of environmental influences caused by extraterrestrial factors and properties of the solar system can clarify aspects of evolution, and may aid in visualizing life on other planets with different properties.

Milne, D.↗

High-angle-of-attack pneumatic lag and upwash corrections for a hemispherical flow direction sensor

As part of the NASA F-14 high angle of attack flight test program, a nose mounted hemispherical flow direction sensor was calibrated against a fuselage mounted movable vane flow angle sensor. Significant discrepancies were found to exist in the angle of attack measurements. A two fold approach taken to resolve these discrepancies during subsonic flight is described. First, the sensing integrity of the isolated hemispherical sensor is established by wind tunnel data extending to an angle of attack of 60 deg. Second, two probable causes for the discrepancies, pneumatic lag and upwash, are examined. Methods of identifying and compensating for lag and upwash are presented. The wind tunnel data verify that the isolated hemispherical sensor is sufficiently accurate for static conditions with angles of attack up to 60 deg and angles of sideslip up to 30 deg. Analysis of flight data for two high angle of attack maneuvers establishes that pneumatic lag and upwash are highly correlated with the discrepancies between the hemispherical and vane type sensor measurements.

Whitmore, Stephen A.↗

Fast molecular shocks. II - Emission from fast dissociative shocks

The line radiations emitted in the cooling gas behind a fast dissociative shock are studied. The intensities emitted in high rotational transitions of the neutral molecules CO, SiO, HCN, CN, NO, and SO are estimated, as well as in rovibrational transitions of the molecular ions HeH(+) and OH(+) in radio recombination lines of atomic hydrogen and in fine-structure transitions of C, C(+), O, and Si(+). The predictions are compared with the observed intensities of line emission from the Orion-KL region. For Orion-KL the observations do not exclude, but probably do not require, the presence of a fast dissociative shock. Emission from SiO in high-J rotational states and from vibrationally excited OH(+), HeH(+), HeH(+), and SO(+) may be detectable from dissociative shocks under suitable conditions of preshock density and shock velocity; such emission may prove to be a useful diagnostic probe of fast shock activity.

Neufeld, David A.↗

Stochastic modeling of turbulent reacting flows

Direct numerical simulations of a single-step irreversible chemical reaction with non-premixed reactants in forced isotropic turbulence at R(sub lambda) = 63, Da = 4.0, and Sc = 0.7 were made using 128 Fourier modes to obtain joint probability density functions (pdfs) and other statistical information to parameterize and test a Fokker-Planck turbulent mixing model. Preliminary results indicate that the modeled gradient stretching term for an inert scalar is independent of the initial conditions of the scalar field. The conditional pdf of scalar gradient magnitudes is found to be a function of the scalar until the reaction is largely completed. Alignment of concentration gradients with local strain rate and other features of the flow were also investigated.

Fox, R. O.↗

Computational fluid dynamics study of the variable-pitch split-blade fan concept

A computational fluid dynamics study was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of the variable-pitch split-blade supersonic fan concept. This fan configuration was conceived as a means to enable a supersonic fan to switch from the supersonic through-flow type of operation at high speeds to a conventional fan with subsonic inflow and outflow at low speeds. During this off-design, low-speed mode of operation, the fan would operate with a substantial static pressure rise across the blade row like a conventional transonic fan; the front (variable-pitch) blade would be aligned with the incoming flow, and the aft blade would remain fixed in the position set by the supersonic design conditions. Because of these geometrical features, this low speed configuration would inherently have a large amount of turning and, thereby, would have the potential for a large total pressure increase in a single stage. Such a high-turning blade configuration is prone to flow separation; it was hoped that the channeling of the flow between the blades would act like a slotted wing and help alleviate this problem. A total of 20 blade configurations representing various supersonic and transonic configurations were evaluated using a Navier Stokes CFD program called ADAPTNS because of its adaptive grid features. The flow fields generated by this computational procedure were processed by another data reduction program which calculated average flow properties and simulated fan performance. These results were employed to make quantitative comparisons and evaluations of blade performance. The supersonic split-blade configurations generated performance comparable to a single-blade supersonic, through-flow fan configuration. Simulated rotor total pressure ratios of the order of 2.5 or better were achieved for Mach 2.0 inflow conditions. The corresponding fan efficiencies were approximately 75 percent or better. The transonic split-blade configurations having large amounts of turning were able to generate large amounts of total turning and achieve simulated total pressure ratios of 3.0 or better with subsonic inflow conditions. These configurations had large losses and low fan efficiencies in the 70's percent. They had large separated regions and low velocity wakes. Additional turning and diffusion of this flow in a subsequent stator row would probably be very inefficient. The high total pressure ratios indicated by the rotor performance would be substantially reduced by the stators, and the stage efficiency would be substantially lower. Such performance leaves this dual-mode fan concept less attractive than originally postulated.

Kepler, C. E.↗

Survey of Pancake-Shaped Warm Ion Distributions at Geosynchronous Orbit

It has been proposed that the electromagnetic proton cyclotron instability is a strong source of heating for the anisotropic warm ions observed at geosynchronous orbit. We present here the results of a statistical study of pancake-shaped warm ion distributions, using a one-year interval of data observed with the Los Alamos magnetospheric plasma analyzer (MPA) on the geosynchronous satellite 1994-084. Our results support previous findings that pancake-shaped warm ion distributions occur more frequently on the dayside of the magnetosphere and under magnetically quiet conditions. We also confirm that the electromagnetic proton cyclotron instability is operating and is constraining the hot proton temperature anisotropy. However, our results indicate that the pancake-shaped warm ion distributions observed at geosynchronous orbit are probably not generated by this instability but must be due to a different mechanism, possibly to heating by lower hybrid waves.

Ober, Daniel↗

Cosmic Ray Hits in the Central Nervous System at Solar Maximum

It has been suggested that a manned mission to Mars be launched at solar maximum rather than at solar minimum to minimize the radiation exposure to galactic cosmic rays. It is true that the number of hits from highly ionizing particles to critical regions in the brain will be less at solar maximum, and it is of some interest to estimate how much less. We present here calculations for several sites within the brain from iron ions (z = 26) and from particles with charge, z, greater than or equal to 15. The same shielding configurations and sites in the brain used in an earlier paper for solar minimum are employed so that direct comparison of results between the two solar activity conditions can be made. A simple pressure-vessel wall and an equipment room onboard a spacecraft are chosen as shielding examples. In the equipment room, typical results for the thalamus (100 mm2 area) are that the probability of any given cell nucleus being hit decreases from 10 percent at solar minimum to 6 percent at solar maximum for particles with z greater than or equal to 15 and from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent for iron ions. We conclude that this modest decrease in hit frequency (less than a factor of two) is not a compelling reason to avoid solar minimum for a manned mission to Mars.

Curtis, S. B.↗

Broken Ergodicity in Two-Dimensional Homogeneous Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence

Two-dimensional (2-D) homogeneous magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence has many of the same qualitative features as three-dimensional (3-D) homogeneous MHD turbulence.The se features include several ideal invariants, along with the phenomenon of broken ergodicity. Broken ergodicity appears when certain modes act like random variables with mean values that are large compared to their standard deviations, indicating a coherent structure or dynamo.Recently, the origin of broken ergodicity in 3-D MHD turbulence that is manifest in the lowest wavenumbers was explained. Here, a detailed description of the origins of broken ergodicity in 2-D MHD turbulence is presented. It will be seen that broken ergodicity in ideal 2-D MHD turbulence can be manifest in the lowest wavenumbers of a finite numerical model for certain initial conditions or in the highest wavenumbers for another set of initial conditions.T he origins of broken ergodicity in ideal 2-D homogeneous MHD turbulence are found through an eigen analysis of the covariance matrices of the modal probability density functions.It will also be shown that when the lowest wavenumber magnetic field becomes quasi-stationary, the higher wavenumber modes can propagate as Alfven waves on these almost static large-scale magnetic structures

Shebalin, John V.↗

Properties of 5052 Aluminum For Use as Honeycomb Core in Manned Spaceflight

This work explains that the properties of Al 5052 material used commonly for honeycomb cores in sandwich panels are highly dependent on the tempering condition. It has not been common to specify the temper when ordering HC material nor is it common for the supplier to state what the temper is. For aerospace uses, a temper of H38 or H39 is probably recommended. This temper should be stated in the bill of material and should be verified upon receipt of the core. To this end some properties provided herein can aid as benchmark values.

tensile propertie↗

Use of an adjoint model for finding triggers for Alpine lee cyclogenesis

The authors propose a new procedure, designated the adjoint-based genesis diagnostic (AGD) procedure, for studying triggering mechanisms and the subsequent genesis of the synoptic phenomena of interest. This procedure makes use of a numerical model sensitivity to initial conditions and the nonlinear evolution of the initial perturbations that are designed using this sensitivity. The model sensitivity is evaluated using the associated adjoint model. This study uses the dry version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Adjoint Modeling System (MAMS) for the numerical experiments. The authors apply the AGD procedure to two cases of Alpine lee cyclogenesis that were observed during the Alpine Experiment special observations period. The results show that the sensitivity fields that are produced by the adjoint model and the associated initial perturbations are readily related to the probable triggering mechanisms for these cyclones. Additionally, the nonlinear evolution of these initial perturbations points toward the physical processes involved in the lee cyclone formation. The AGD experiments for a weak cyclone case indicate that the MAMS forecast model has an underrepresented topographic forcing due to the sigma vertical coordinate and that this model error can be compensated by adjustments in the initial conditions that are related to the triggering mechanisms, which is not associated with the topographic blocking mechanism.

Vukicevic, Tomislava↗

Physics-coupled data-driven design of high-temperature alloys

We present a materials design loop, which streamlines physics-coupled machine learning (ML) surrogate models to discover new alloy chemistries with improved properties. The efficacy is demonstrated by discovering a high-temperature alumina-forming austenitic (AFA) stainless steel with enhanced creep, followed by experimental validation. The ML models have been trained using a well-curated, highly consistent experimental dataset augmented with synthetic microstructural features from a computational thermodynamic approach. We have populated a large number of hypothetical AFA alloys to explore the high-dimensional composition space and have predicted their creep properties by providing the same synthetic input features obtained from the trained ML models. Uncertainties from the ML training were taken as thresholds for truncating predicted results to identify alloys with improved or deteriorated creep. Individual elemental compositions have been determined via probability density distribution analysis from the group of alloys at the top and bottom of the predicted creep values for further virtual and experimental validations. In conclusion, we anticipate that this workflow can be applied to screen desired conditions, such as chemistry and processing parameters, in high-dimensional space through physics-guided data analytics.

Alloy design↗

Evaluation of sustainable waste management: An analysis of techno-economic and life cycle assessments of municipal solid waste sorting and decontamination

This study evaluates the economic and environmental feasibility of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) sorting and decontamination technologies across urban, suburban, and rural areas. Using Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), the research assesses cost-effectiveness and environmental impacts, with a focus on cost variability analyzed through Monte Carlo simulations. Findings indicate significant cost differences based on population density: rural areas incur high costs up to $$764/ton due to low waste volumes and limited infrastructure, whereas suburban and urban areas have more feasible costs ranging from $36.3 to $142.5/ton. Environmental impacts also vary, with greenhouse gas emissions at 171 kg CO 2 eq/ton for copy paper and 118.6 kg CO 2 eq/ton for plastics. PM2.5 levels are 9.1 g/ton for copy paper and 6.3 g/ton for plastics, with sorting lines being the main contributors. Monte Carlo simulations reveal a 50% probability of costs being below $$102.26/ton for copy paper and $115.8/ton for plastics in suburban settings. Further, the study underscores the importance of customized waste management strategies to improve economic viability and sustainability based on local conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Ensembles of Metastable States Govern Heterogeneous Catalysis on Dynamic Interfaces

Heterogeneous catalysis is at the heart of chemical industry. Being able to tune and design efficient catalysts for processes of interest is of an utmost importance, and for this, the molecular-level understanding of heterogeneous catalysts is the first step, and indeed a prime focus of the modern catalysis research. For a long time, a single most thermodynamically stable structure of the catalytic interface attained in reaction conditions had been envisioned as the reactive phase. However, some catalytic interfaces continue to undergo structural dynamics in the steady state, triggered by high temperatures, pressures, and binding and changing reagents. Among particularly dynamic interfaces are such widely-used catalysts as crystalline and amorphous surfaced supporting (sub-)nano metallic clusters. Recently, it became clear that this dynamic fluxionality causes the supported clusters to populate many distinct structural and stoichiometric states in catalytic conditions. Hence, the catalytic interface should be viewed as an evolving statistical ensemble of many (not one) structures. As such, every member in the ensemble contributes to the properties of the catalyst differently, and in proportion to its probability to be populated. This new notion flips the established paradigm and calls for new theory, modeling approaches, operando measurements, and updated design strategies. The statistical ensemble nature of surface-supported sub-nano cluster catalysts can be exemplified by oxide-supported and adsorbate-covered Pt, Pd, Cu, CuPd clusters, catalytic toward oxidative and non-oxidative dehydrogenation. They have access to a variety of 3D and quasi-2D shapes. The compositions of their thermal ensembles are dependent on the cluster size, leading to size-specific catalytic activities and the famous “every atom counts” phenomenon. The support and adsorbates affect catalyst structures, and state of the reacting species causes the ensemble to change in every reaction intermediate. The most stable member of the ensemble dominates the thermodynamic properties of the corresponding intermediate, whereas the kinetics can be determined by more active but less populated metastable catalyst states, and that suggests that many earlier studies might have overlooked the actual active sites. Both effects depend on the relative time-scales of catalyst restructuring and reaction dynamics. The catalyst may routinely operate off-equilibrium. Ensemble phenomena lead to surprising exceptions from established rules of catalysis, such as scaling relations, and Arrhenius behavior. Catalyst deactivation is also an ensemble property, and its extent of mitigation can be predicted through the new paradigm. These findings were enabled by advances in theory, such as global optimization and subsequent utilization of multiple local minima, and pathways sampling, as well as operando catalyst characterization. The fact that the per-site and per-species resolution is needed for the description and predicting of catalyst properties gives theory the central role in catalysis research, as most experiments provide ensemble-average information and cannot detect the crucial minority species that may be responsible for the catalytic activity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Designing an Optimal Kilonova Search Using DECam for Gravitational-wave Events

We address the problem of optimally identifying all kilonovae detected via gravitational-wave emission in the upcoming LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run, O4, which is expected to be sensitive to a factor of ~7 more binary neutron star (BNS) alerts than previously. Electromagnetic follow-up of all but the brightest of these new events will require >1 m telescopes, for which limited time is available. We present an optimized observing strategy for the DECam during O4. We base our study on simulations of gravitational-wave events expected for O4 and wide-prior kilonova simulations. We derive the detectabilities of events for realistic observing conditions. We optimize our strategy for confirming a kilonova while minimizing telescope time. For a wide range of kilonova parameters, corresponding to a fainter kilonova compared to GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that, with this optimal strategy, the discovery probability for electromagnetic counterparts with the DECam is ~80% at the nominal BNS gravitational-wave detection limit for O4 (190 Mpc), which corresponds to an ~30% improvement compared to the strategy adopted during the previous observing run. For more distant events (~330 Mpc), we reach an ~60% probability of detection, a factor of ~2 increase. For a brighter kilonova model dominated by the blue component that reproduces the observations of GW170817/AT 2017gfo, we find that we can reach ~90% probability of detection out to 330 Mpc, representing an increase of ~20%, while also reducing the total telescope time required to follow up events by ~20%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Synoptic observations of Jupiter's radio emissions - Average statistical properties observed by Voyager

Observations of Jupiter's low-frequency radio emissions collected over one-month intervals before and after each Voyager encounter are analyzed to provide a synoptic view of the average statistical properties of the emissions. Compilations of occurrence probability, average power flux density, and average sense of circular polarization are given as a function of central meridian longitude, phase of Io, and frequency. The results are then compared with ground-based observations. The necessary geometric conditions and preferred polarization sense for Io-related decametric emission observed by Voyager from above both the dayside and nightside hemispheres are found to be basically the same as those observed in earth-based studies.

Alexander, J. K.↗

Orthogonal patterns in binary neural networks

A binary neural network that stores only mutually orthogonal patterns is shown to converge, when probed by any pattern, to a pattern in the memory space, i.e., the space spanned by the stored patterns. The latter are shown to be the only members of the memory space under a certain coding condition, which allows maximum storage of M=(2N) sup 0.5 patterns, where N is the number of neurons. The stored patterns are shown to have basins of attraction of radius N/(2M), within which errors are corrected with probability 1 in a single update cycle. When the probe falls outside these regions, the error correction capability can still be increased to 1 by repeatedly running the network with the same probe.

Baram, Yoram↗