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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Future Pathways for Arctic Forest Fires

Wildfires are expected to become more common and more severe in the Arctic states due to climate change. Main cause for the fires is human activity, even in the boreal and Arctic forests. Therefore, activities such forest management and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness, can have a significant impact on future wildfire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of these factors we have created pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 for the Arctic states. We explore high and low fire activity and risk pathways for all the Arctic states and suggest most our best guess pathways for each state separately. The low activity and fire risk pathway assumes active fire suppression via population participation and official land management, efficient fuel treatments to reduce fire risk, and active firefighting. The high activity and fire risk pathway assumes the opposite due to lack of government and community response, with addition of lacking response to climate-driven changes to wildfire risks. In the Nordic countries, human ignition sources, such as timber extraction, tourism, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In addition to these in Canada and Alaska, expansion of agriculture increases the likelihood of open burning of agricultural waste, increasing risk of the fire spreading to wildlands. Drier fuels due to climate change increase the risk of fires, and there is a growing risk of extreme heat conditions, creating favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra (specifically grassland) fires, with potential to occur in hard-to-reach locations for firefighting. In short, policy actions and education play a crucial role in future wildfire management and adaptation.

Future↗

NASA NTRS2002

Characterization of Liquid Fuel Evaporation of a Lifted Methanol Spray Flame in a Vitiated Coflow Burner

An experimental investigation of lifted spray flames in a coflow of hot, vitiated gases is presented. The vitiated coflow burner is a spray flame that issues into a coaxial flow of hot combustion products from a lean, premixed H2/Air flame. The spray flame in a vitiated coflow emulates the combustion that occurs in many advanced combustors without the detailed fluid mechanics. Two commercially available laser diagnostic systems are used to characterize the spray flame and to demonstrate the vitiated coflow burner's amenability to optical investigation. The Ensemble Particle Concentration and Size (EPCS) system is used to measure the path-average droplet size distribution and liquid volume fraction at several axial locations while an extractive probe instrument named the Real-time Fuel-air Analyzer (RFA) is used to measure the air to fuel ratio downstream of the spray nozzle with high temporal and spatial resolution. The effect of coflow conditions (stoichiometry) and dilution of the fuel with water was studied with the EPCS optical system. As expected, results show that water retards the evaporation and combustion of fuels. Measurements obtained by the RFA extractive probe show that while the Delavan manufactured nozzle does distribute the fuel over the manufacturer specified spray angle, it unfortunately does not distribute the fuel uniformly, providing conditions that may result in the production of unwanted NOx. Despite some limitations due to the inherent nature of the experimental techniques, the two diagnostics can be readily applied to spray flames in the vitiated coflow environment.

Cabra, Ricardo↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Standardized Analysis Process Using Digital Image Correlation to Calculate In Situ Cladding Strain from Modified Burst Tests for Fuel Performance Code Validation

Historical data collection on nuclear fuel cladding materials has focused on generating a statistically significant amount of data to assess the material and its failure behavior. Furthermore, data generated to support material model and failure criteria development were previously posttest evaluations, so a large number of tests was required to gain new understanding. A way to expedite this process is to develop techniques capable of generating large, high-fidelity data sets from a single test with lower uncertainty or quantified uncertainty. One such example of this approach is Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s use of modified burst tests (MBTs) to analyze the mechanical behavior and failure conditions of cladding during a simulated reactivity-initiated accident (RIA). Each test incorporates digital image correlation (DIC) analysis techniques that are used to assess the accumulated strain in situ, as well as eventual cladding failure. This work has been fruitful in defining strain-to-failure conditions for materials like silicon carbide (SiC) fiber–reinforced/SiC matrix composite tubes (SiC/SiC), iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy tubes, and chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 tubes. However, there are numerous DIC software available, including open-source and proprietary software. The different DIC software use various algorithms to process images and calculate displacement values. Using these different software and algorithms can lead to varying results, and perhaps larger-than-expected uncertainties. In the present study, previously published MBT data encompassing a variety of test conditions were reanalyzed with two different DIC software to assess the variance in the calculated strain results. The data consisted of SiC/SiC, FeCrAl, and chromium-coated Zircaloy-4 tubes. Plots of the calculated strains during the transient revealed good agreement between the two DIC software. The average root-mean-square errors between the two software was 0.20% strain, which is slightly larger than a previously reported error value for these tests. In conclusion, this variance in results is low enough that this analysis method can be used for code validation.

Reactivity-initiated accident↗

NASA NTRS1982

The simulation of time varying ascent loads on arrays of Shuttle tiles in a large transonic tunnel

A large variety of tests were made to determine the strength, fatigue and thermal characteristics of the thermal-protection system of the Shuttle orbiter. The present paper describes first-launch-critical tests which were conducted in the Langley 8-Foot Transonic Pressure Tunnel (8'TPT) which simulated the time histories of Shuttle ascent loads on tile arrays bonded to structures which accurately duplicated those of the Shuttle. The time varying free-stream conditions were provided by controlling the deflection angle history of diffuser spoiler flaps in an automated way. Time histories of the critical-load parameters imposed on the tile arrays in the tunnel are compared in the paper to those expected in flight. In addition, the effect of repeated load pulses on the smoothness of the surface and condition of the tiles is discussed briefly.

Bobbitt, P. J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Long-term Storage of ILW: Building Stores with the Appropriate Environmental Controls - 20294

In the UK, containers for the storage and disposal of intermediate level radioactive waste (ILW) typically use stainless steel due to its excellent mechanical properties and corrosion resistance. The period of interim storage before a disposal facility is available, however, is longer than available engineering experience with stainless steels in relevant environmental conditions. Additionally, after disposal the ability of ILW containers to withstand further periods of exposure to the environment is expected to provide substantial benefits to the operation of a disposal facility and the safety case underpinning its closure. For these reasons, although there have been no instances of failure of stainless steels in indoor storage conditions, a focused R and D programme has been carried out to identify the environmental envelope over which the material does not significantly degrade. In this study we summarise experimental and modelling studies carried out over the last decade to build a solid mechanistic understanding of the corrosion behaviour of stainless steels in indoor atmospheric conditions. We then identify suitable environmental regimes to minimise the risk of degradation processes and explore approaches to monitoring the storage conditions to gain confidence in the long-term performance of the system. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2005

Arctic Warming Signals from Satellite Observations

Global warming signals are expected to be amplified in the Arctic primarily because of ice-albedo feedback associated with the high reflectivity of ice and snow that blankets much of the region. The Arctic had been a poorly explored territory basically because of its general inaccessibility on account of extremely harsh weather conditions and the dominant presence of thick perennial ice in the region. The advent of satellite remote sensing systems since the 1960s, however, enabled the acquisition of synoptic data that depict in good spatial detail the temporal changes of many Arctic surface parameters. Among the surface parameters that have been studied using space based systems are surface temperature, sea ice concentration, snow cover, surface albedo and phytoplankton concentration. Associated atmospheric parameters, such as cloud cover, temperature profile, ozone concentration, and aerosol have also been derived. Recent observational and phenomenological studies have indeed revealed progressively changing conditions in the Arctic during the last few decades (e g , Walsh et al. 1996; Serreze et al 2000; Comiso and Parkinson 2004). The changes included declines in the extent and area of surfaces covered by sea ice and snow, increases in melt area over the Greenland ice sheets, thawing of the permafrost, warming in the troposphere, and retreat of the glaciers. These observations are consistent with the observed global warming that has been associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Karl and Trenberth 2003) and confirmed by modeling studies (Holland and Bitz, 2003). The Arctic system, however, is still not well understood complicated by a largely fluctuating wind circulation and atmospheric conditions (Proshutinsky and Johnson 1997) and controlled by what is now known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which provides a measure of the strength of atmospheric activities in the region (Thompson and Wallace 1998). Meanwhile, the observed Arctic conditions since the 1970s have been shown to exhibit a linear behavior that directly contradicts what has been expected from the A0 (Overland, 2005). The decade of the 1990s has been regarded as the warmest decade in the last century and current data indicates that the 2000s may be even a warmer decade than the 1990s further supporting the linear variability. In this paper, we use satellite data to gain insights into the warming Arctic and how the abnormally warm conditions during the last few years are reflected in the region.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Thin-film chemical expansion of ceria based solid solutions: laser vibrometry study

The chemical expansion of Pr 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 2-δ (PCO) and CeO 2-δ thin films is investigated in the temperature range between 600 °C and 800 °C by laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV). It enables non-contact determination of nanometer scale changes in film thickness at high temperatures. The present study is the first systematic and detailed investigation of chemical expansion of doped and undoped ceria thin films at temperatures above 650 °C. The thin films were deposited on yttria stabilized zirconia substrates (YSZ), operated as an electrochemical oxygen pump, to periodically adjust the oxygen activity in the films, leading to reversible expansion and contraction of the film. This further leads to stresses in the underlying YSZ substrates, accompanied by bending of the overall devices. Film thickness changes and sample bending are found to reach up to 10 and several hundred nanometers, respectively, at excitation frequencies from 0.1 to 10 Hz and applied voltages from 0–0.75 V for PCO and 0–1 V for ceria. At low frequencies, equilibrium conditions are approached. As a consequence maximum thin-film expansion of PCO is expected due to full reduction of the Pr ions. The lower detection limit for displacements is found to be in the subnanometer range. At 800 °C and an excitation frequency of 1 Hz, the LDV shows a remarkable resolution of 0.3 nm which allows, for example, the characterization of materials with small levels of expansion, such as undoped ceria at high oxygen partial pressure. As the correlation between film expansion and sample bending is obtained through this study, a dimensional change of a free body consisting of the same material can be calculated using the high resolution characteristics of this system. A minimum detectable dimensional change of 5 pm is estimated even under challenging high-temperature conditions at 800 °C opening up opportunities to investigate electro-chemo-mechanical phenomena heretofore impossible to investigate. The expansion data are correlated with previous results on the oxygen nonstoichiometry of PCO thin films, and a defect model for bulk ceria solid solutions is adopted to calculate the cation and anion radii changes in the constrained films during chemical expansion. The constrained films exhibit anisotropic volume expansion with displacements perpendicular to the substrate plane nearly double that of bulk samples. The PCO films used here generate high total displacements of several 100 nm’s with high reproducibility. Consequently, PCO films are identified to be a potential core component of high-temperature actuators. They benefit not only from high displacements at temperatures where most piezoelectric materials no longer operate while exhibiting, low voltage operation and low energy consumption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Provable bounds for noise-free expectation values computed from noisy samples

Quantum computing has emerged as a powerful computational paradigm capable of solving problems beyond the reach of classical computers. However, today’s quantum computers are noisy, posing challenges to obtaining accurate results. Here, we explore the impact of noise on quantum computing, focusing on the challenges in sampling bit strings from noisy quantum computers and the implications for optimization and machine learning. We formally quantify the sampling overhead to extract good samples from noisy quantum computers and relate it to the layer fidelity, a metric to determine the performance of noisy quantum processors. Further, we show how this allows us to use the conditional value at risk of noisy samples to determine provable bounds on noise-free expectation values. We discuss how to leverage these bounds for different algorithms and demonstrate our findings through experiments on real quantum computers involving up to 127 qubits. The results show strong alignment with theoretical predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Axisymmetric Pulsar Magnetosphere

We present the structure of the axisymmetric force-free magnetosphere of an aligned rotating magnetic dipole, in the case in which there exists a sufficiently large charge density (whose origin we do not question) to satisfy the ideal MHD condition, E (raised dot) B = 0, everywhere. The unique distribution of electric current along the open magnetic field lines which is required for the solution to be continuous and smooth is obtained numerically. We expect that our solution will be useful as the starting point for detailed studies of pulsar magnetospheres under more general conditions, namely when either the force-free and/or the ideal MHD condition E (raised dot) B = 0 are not valid in the entire magnetosphere. Based on our solution, we consider that the most likely positions of such an occurrence are the polar cap, the crossings of the zero space charge surface by open field lines, and the return current boundary, but not the light cylinder.

Contopoulos, J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Structure of the magnetopause for low Mach number and strongly northward interplanetary magnetic field

We use International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) magnetic field and plasma data to examine dayside magnetopause crossing under conditions of low Mach number and strongly northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). When the solar wind Mach number is low, the IMF stregth and magnetoseath field stregth are large, and we expect the effects of magnetic reconection to be the strongest. When the IMF is strongly northward, we find that the location of the magnetopause boundary layer is very stationary in the space, and we observe many features that are common for both typical and low Mach numbers. However, under low Mach number conditions, we have observed some features that would be expected for cusp reconnection. The boundary layer near the subsolar region contains heated magnetosheath plasma with little hot magnetospheric component that has clearly entered the magnetosphere elsewhere. At least some of the structures present in the boundary layer are impulsive. Inside the boundary layer there is also clear evidence of acceleratedflow from the cusp region for strongly northward IMF at low Mach number. Reconnection beyond the cusp can explain the observed field, plasma, and flow signatures. Therefore at low Mach number, reconection is important in the formation of the boundary layer for northward IMF.

Le, G.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Aircraft Weather Mitigation for the Next Generation Air Transportation System

Atmospheric effects on aviation are described by Mahapatra (1999) as including (1) atmospheric phenomena involving air motion - wind shear and turbulence; (2) hydrometeorological phenomena - rain, snow and hail; (3) aircraft icing; (4) low visibility; and (5) atmospheric electrical phenomena. Aircraft Weather Mitigation includes aircraft systems (e.g. airframe, propulsion, avionics, controls) that can be enacted (by a pilot, automation or hybrid systems) to suppress and/or prepare for the effects of encountered or unavoidable weather or to facilitate a crew operational decision-making process relative to weather. Aircraft weather mitigation can be thought of as a continuum (Figure 1) with the need to avoid all adverse weather at one extreme and the ability to safely operate in all weather conditions at the other extreme. Realistic aircraft capabilities fall somewhere between these two extremes. The capabilities of small general aviation aircraft would be expected to fall closer to the "Avoid All Adverse Weather" point, and the capabilities of large commercial jet transports would fall closer to the "Operate in All Weather Conditions" point. The ability to safely operate in adverse weather conditions is dependent upon the pilot s capabilities (training, total experience and recent experience), the airspace in which the operation is taking place (terrain, navigational aids, traffic separation), the capabilities of the airport (approach guidance, runway and taxiway lighting, availability of air traffic control), as well as the capabilities of the airplane. The level of mitigation may vary depending upon the type of adverse weather. For example, a small general aviation airplane may be equipped to operate "in the clouds" without outside visual references, but not be equipped to prevent airframe ice that could be accreted in those clouds.

Stough, H. Paul, III↗

DOE OSTI2024

Determining the N -Representability of a Reduced Density Matrix via Unitary Evolution and Stochastic Sampling

The N-representability problem consists in determining whether, for a given p-body matrix, there exists at least one N-body density matrix from which the p-body matrix can be obtained by contraction, that is, if the given matrix is a p-body reduced density matrix (p-RDM). The knowledge of all necessary and sufficient conditions for a p-body matrix to be N-representable allows the constrained minimization of a many-body Hamiltonian expectation value with respect to the p-body density matrix and, thus, the determination of its exact ground state. However, the number of constraints that complete the N-representability conditions grows exponentially with system size, and hence, the procedure quickly becomes intractable for practical applications. This work introduces a hybrid quantum-stochastic algorithm to effectively replace the N-representability conditions. The algorithm consists of applying to an initial N-body density matrix a sequence of unitary evolution operators constructed from a stochastic process that successively approaches the reduced state of the density matrix on a p-body subsystem, represented by a p-RDM, to a target p-body matrix, potentially a p-RDM. The generators of the evolution operators follow the well-known adaptive derivative-assembled pseudo-Trotter method (ADAPT), while the stochastic component is implemented by using a simulated annealing process. The resulting algorithm is independent of any underlying Hamiltonian, and it can be used to decide whether a given p-body matrix is N-representable, establishing a criterion to determine its quality and correcting it. We apply the proposed hybrid ADAPT algorithm to alleged reduced density matrices from a quantum chemistry electronic Hamiltonian, from the reduced Bardeen–Cooper–Schrieffer model with constant pairing, and from the Heisenberg XXZ spin model. In all cases, the proposed method behaves as expected for 1-RDMs and 2-RDMs, evolving the initial matrices toward different targets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

On the numerical sensitivity of cellular automata grain structure predictions to large thermal gradients and cooling rates

Cellular automata (CA) models of as-solidified grain structure, originally developed and applied to casting, have become a common means of predicting grain structure resulting from Additive Manufacturing (AM) processes. The majority of these models are based on the decentered octahedron approach, which attempts to correct for the effect of grid anisotropy on the prediction of competitive solidification of dendritic grains. However, AM solidification occurs under cooling rates ($\dot{T}$) and thermal gradients (G) that are orders of magnitude larger than those encountered in casting, and no systematic investigation on the effect of the CA model cell size (Δx) and time step (Δt) on AM microstructure predictions has been performed. Here, in this study, such an investigation is first performed via simulation of individual grains of various crystallographic orientations with a fixed, unidirectional G, showing that CA prediction of the steady-state undercooling matched the expected values based on the interfacial response function at small G and deviated from the expected values at large G. Simulation of competitive growth of multiple grains showed a weakening of the predicted texture as G and Δx became large. Simulation of solidification under AM conditions, where G and $\dot{T}$ vary spatially across the melt pools, showed that not only does grain selection weaken and deviate from expectations at large Δx, but grains with crystallographic $\langle$100$\rangle$ aligned with the grid directions are more adversely affected by the temperature field discontinuities than grains with other crystallographic orientations. Despite the fact that the exact grain competition results depended on Δt, the overall texture development was notably less sensitive to Δt than Δx, provided that a reasonable value of Δt is selected based on the ratio of Δx to the maximum local solidification velocity in the simulation domain. Finally, from the directional solidification and AM simulation results, an analysis of computational cost compared to simulation resolution is performed based on an equation derived to quantify the relatively inaccuracy in grain selection based on the model and temperature field inputs. From this analysis, it is concluded that there is a need for algorithmic improvements to improve CA grain competition accuracy for large G processing conditions as sufficiently small Δx to resolve the necessary competition is intractable for many AM processing conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2004

Fixed Packed Bed Reactors in Reduced Gravity

We present experimental data on flow pattern transitions, pressure drop and flow characteristics for cocurrent gas-liquid flow through packed columns in microgravity. The flow pattern transition data indicates that the pulse flow regime exists over a wider range of gas and liquid flow rates under microgravity conditions compared to 1-g and the widely used Talmor map in 1-g is not applicable for predicting the transition boundaries. A new transition criterion between bubble and pulse flow in microgravity is proposed and tested using the data. Since there is no static head in microgravity, the pressure drop measured is the true frictional pressure drop. The pressure drop data, which has much smaller scatter than most reported 1-g data clearly shows that capillary effects can enhance the pressure drop (especially in the bubble flow regime) as much as 200% compared to that predicted by the single phase Ergun equation. The pressure drop data are correlated in terms of a two-phase friction factor and its dependence on the gas and liquid Reynolds numbers and the Suratman number. The influence of gravity on the pulse amplitude and frequency is also discussed and compared to that under normal gravity conditions. Experimental work is planned to determine the gas-liquid mass transfer coefficients. Because of enhanced interfacial effects, we expect the gas-liquid transfer coefficients k(L)a and k(G)a (where a is the gas-liquid interfacial area) to be higher in microgravity than in normal gravity at the same flow conditions. This will be verified by gas absorption experiments, with and without reaction in the liquid phase, using oxygen, carbon dioxide, water and dilute aqueous amine solutions. The liquid-solid mass transfer coefficient will also be determined in the bubble as well as the pulse flow regimes using solid benzoic acid particles in the packing and measuring their rate of dissolution. The mass transfer coefficients in microgravity will be compared to those in normal gravity cocurrent flow to determine the mass transfer enhancement and propose new mass transfer correlations for two-phase gas-liquid flows through packed beds in microgravity.

Motil, Brian J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Results from the HOTTech-2 Venus Weathering Experiment

Rocks exposed on the surface of Venus are subjected to extreme conditions. The most notable features of the planet’s atmosphere are its pressure (93 bars), its temperature (~460 degrees C), and the presence of oxidizing species such as SO 2 . In aggregate, these factors can be expected to alter exposed rocks over geologic timescales. Our understanding of the nature of this alteration is limited, as the conditions on the Venusian surface are unlike any encountered on the surface of Earth. Last summer, we initiated a multi-year experimental study of Venusian weathering processes. This project dovetails with the community’s Venus Exploration Roadmap, as it addresses priorities such as the study of Venus’ modern habitability and preparations for the upcoming VERITAS, DAVINCI+, and EnVision missions.

GEER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Forest reorganisation effects on fuel moisture content can exceed changes due to climate warming in wet temperate forests

Abstract The distributions of vegetation and fire activity are changing rapidly in response to climate warming. In many regions, climate effects on dead fuel moisture content (FMC) are expected to increase future wildfire activity. However, forest FMC is largely driven by microclimate conditions, which are moderated from open weather by vegetation canopies. As shifts in vegetation increase under climate warming, the extent to which future fire activity will be driven by climate directly or associated vegetation shifts remains unresolved. Here, we present a study aimed at quantifying the relative magnitudes of (i) direct climate warming, and (ii) vegetation change, on FMC. Field sites to evaluate these effects were established in a natural laboratory of altered forest states to mature wet temperate forest in south‐eastern Australia. FMC was estimated using a process‐based model and 48 years of reconstructed climate data. Canopy effects on microclimate were captured by transferring inputs from climate to microclimate using models parameterised with field observations. To evaluate the relative magnitude of climate and vegetation effects, we calculated the maximum difference in mean annual FMC across annual climate replicates and compared this to FMC differences across reorganising forest sites. Our results show vegetation effects on FMC can exceed those related to expected climate change. Changes to forest structure and composition increased (+15.7%) and decreased (−12.3%) mean annual FMC, with a larger negative effect when forest cover was completely removed (−18.5%). In contrast, the largest climate effect on FMC was −6.6% across 48‐years of data. Our study demonstrates that the magnitude of vegetation effects on FMC can exceed expected climate change effects. Models of future fire activity that do not account for changing vegetation effects on microclimate are omitting a key biophysical control on FMC and therefore may not be accurately predicting future fire activity.

Brown, Tegan P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Atomic Force Microscopy and Infrared Nanospectroscopy of COVID-19 Spike Protein for the Quantification of Adhesion to Common Surfaces

The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives worldwide, sickened many more, and has resulted in severe socio-economic consequences. As society returns to normal, understanding the spread and persistence of SARS CoV-2 on commonplace surfaces can help to mitigate future outbreaks of coronaviruses and other pathogens. We hypothesize that such an understanding can be aided from studying the binding and interaction of viral proteins with non-biological surfaces. Here, we propose a methodology for investigating the adhesion of the SARS CoV-2 spike glycoprotein on common inorganic surfaces such as aluminum-, copper-, iron-, silica-, and ceria-oxides as well as metallic gold. Quantitative adhesion was obtained from the analysis of measured forces at the nanoscale using an atomic force microscope operated under ambient conditions. Without imposing further constraints on the measurement conditions, our preliminary findings suggest that spike glycoproteins interact with similar adhesion forces across the majority of the metal oxides tested with the exception to gold, for which attraction forces ~10 times stronger than all other materials studied were observed. Ferritin, which was used as a reference protein, was found to exhibit similar adhesion forces as SARS CoV-2 spike protein. Further, this study results show that glycoprotein adhesion forces for similar ambient humidity, tip shape, and contact surface are non-specific to the properties of metal oxide surfaces, which are expected to be covered by a thin water film. The findings suggest that at ambient conditions glycoprotein adhesion to metal oxides is primarily controlled by the water capillary forces and they depend on the surface tension of the liquid (water). We discuss further strategies warranted to decipher the intricate nanoscale forces for improved quantification of the adhesion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗