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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling

AI models are criticized as being black boxes, potentially subjecting climate science to greater uncertainty. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been proposed to probe AI models and increase trust. In this review and perspective paper, we suggest that, in addition to using XAI methods, AI researchers in climate science can learn from past successes in the development of physics-based dynamical climate models. Dynamical models are complex but have gained trust because their successes and failures can sometimes be attributed to specific components or sub-models, such as when model bias is explained by pointing to a particular parameterization. We propose three types of understanding as a basis to evaluate trust in dynamical and AI models alike: (1) instrumental understanding, which is obtained when a model has passed a functional test; (2) statistical understanding, obtained when researchers can make sense of the modeling results using statistical techniques to identify input–output relationships; and (3) component-level understanding, which refers to modelers' ability to point to specific model components or parts in the model architecture as the culprit for erratic model behaviors or as the crucial reason why the model functions well. We demonstrate how component-level understanding has been sought and achieved via climate model intercomparison projects over the past several decades. Such component-level understanding routinely leads to model improvements and may also serve as a template for thinking about AI-driven climate science. Currently, XAI methods can help explain the behaviors of AI models by focusing on the mapping between input and output, thereby increasing the statistical understanding of AI models. Yet, to further increase our understanding of AI models, we will have to build AI models that have interpretable components amenable to component-level understanding. We give recent examples from the AI climate science literature to highlight some recent, albeit limited, successes in achieving component-level understanding and thereby explaining model behavior. The merit of such interpretable AI models is that they serve as a stronger basis for trust in climate modeling and, by extension, downstream uses of climate model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Safety Risk Reliability Model Library

SR2ML is a software package which contains a set of safety and reliability models designed to be interfaced with the INL developed RAVEN code. These models can be employed to perform both static and dynamic system risk analysis and determine risk importance of specific elements of the considered system. Two classes of reliability models have been developed; the first class includes all classical reliability models (Fault-Trees, Event-Trees, Markov models and Reliability Block Diagrams) which have been extended to deal not only with Boolean logic values but also time dependent values. The second class includes several components aging models. Models of these two classes are designed to be included in a RAVEN ensemble model to perform time dependent system reliability analysis (dynamic analysis). Similarly, these models can be interfaced with system analysis codes to determine failure time of systems and evaluate accident progression (static analysis).

Wang, Congjian↗

SAM Enhancements for Air-Ingress Event Modeling in HTGRs

The SAM code is under development and supported by DOE-NE’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program as a modern system-level modeling and simulation tool for advanced non-light water reactor safety analyses. These advanced reactor concepts incorporate novel and improved approaches to achieve safety and economic feasibility. This report summarizes recent efforts and progress in addressing the code capability gaps in SAM for the modeling of the air-ingress phenomenon in High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs). The capability enhancements implemented to the code include: a multi-component flow model to capture the air-helium mixture during air ingress, a 0-D graphite oxidation model to capture the reaction of graphite with oxygen in the air, and an isentropic critical flow model to more accurately predict the de-pressurization of the reactor system due to a small break in the primary loop. Verification cases and demonstrations are provided to showcase these capabilities in SAM. Existing gaps in the code’s capability are also identified.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimizing costs of VLSI circuits

Report analyzes costs of developing and producing low-production-volume, customized VLSI (very large-scale, integrated) circuits. Relationship is developed between IC cost and electronic system cost using IC cost models based on design/fabrication approach. Emphasis is on development of understanding between cost and volume for custom circuits to be used by NASA. Reliability is major cost component in models. Report is divided into five sections and includes four appendices with useful reference literature.

Cook, K. B., Jr.↗

Origin of howardites, diogenites and eucrites - A mass balance constraint

Two petrogenetic models for the noncumulate-basaltic parts of howardite meteorites are discussed. A mass balance constraint is developed which indicates that more than half of the basaltic components in howardites formed as residual liquids from fractional crystallization of melts that had earlier produced diogentelike pyroxene cumulate components. Other model constriants involving scandium trends, clustering near olivine-pyroxene-plagioclase peritectic, and MgO/(MgO + FeO) ratios are discussed.

Warren, P. H.↗

Long-Period Tidal Variations in the Length of Day

A new model of long-period tidal variations in length of day is developed. The model comprises 80 spectral lines with periods between 18.6 years and 4.7 days, and it consistently includes effects of mantle anelasticity and dynamic ocean tides for all lines. The anelastic properties followWahr and Bergen; experimental confirmation for their results now exists at the fortnightly period, but there remains uncertainty when extrapolating to the longest periods. The ocean modeling builds on recent work with the fortnightly constituent, which suggests that oceanic tidal angular momentum can be reliably predicted at these periods without data assimilation. This is a critical property when modeling most long-period tides, for which little observational data exist. Dynamic ocean effects are quite pronounced at shortest periods as out-of-phase rotation components become nearly as large as in-phase components. The model is tested against a 20 year time series of space geodetic measurements of length of day. The current international standard model is shown to leave significant residual tidal energy, and the new model is found to mostly eliminate that energy, with especially large variance reduction for constituents Sa, Ssa, Mf, and Mt.

LOD tidal oscillations↗

Aeronautical propulsion: Present status and future directions

The advancement of aeropropulsion systems continues to provide technology to various portions of the gas turbine field. It is recognized that this area is undergoing considerale change, which will result in substantially improved gas turbine components and systems. These changes are occurring in a number of technical areas including advanced analytical and physical measurement methods, the application of large scientific computers, the dynamic modeling of components and systems, the application of integrated control systems that optimize and improve performance and system condition monitoring, and the development of new and unique materials and structures. As these areas evolve, the ways in which technology will advance, and factors affecting the design and development of new systems, will probably be considerably different than those of today. It is also anticipated that the necessary skilled work force will be different. Certainly there will be changes, but the nature, extent, and rate of those changes can only be surmised at this time.

Hartmann, M. J.↗

Lidar-Based Estimates of Above-Ground Biomass in the Continental US and Mexico Using Ground, Airborne, and Satellite Observations

Existing national forest inventory plots, an airborne lidar scanning (ALS) system, and a space profiling lidar system (ICESat-GLAS) are used to generate circa 2005 estimates of total aboveground dry biomass (AGB) in forest strata, by state, in the continental United States (CONUS) and Mexico. The airborne lidar is used to link ground observations of AGB to space lidar measurements. Two sets of models are generated, the first relating ground estimates of AGB to airborne laser scanning (ALS) measurements and the second set relating ALS estimates of AGB (generated using the first model set) to GLAS measurements. GLAS then, is used as a sampling tool within a hybrid estimation framework to generate stratum-, state-, and national-level AGB estimates. A two-phase variance estimator is employed to quantify GLAS sampling variability and, additively, ALS-GLAS model variability in this current, three-phase (ground-ALS-space lidar) study. The model variance component characterizes the variability of the regression coefficients used to predict ALS-based estimates of biomass as a function of GLAS measurements. Three different types of predictive models are considered in CONUS to determine which produced biomass totals closest to ground-based national forest inventory estimates - (1) linear (LIN), (2) linear-no-intercept (LNI), and (3) log-linear. For CONUS at the national level, the GLAS LNI model estimate (23.95 +/- 0.45 Gt AGB), agreed most closely with the US national forest inventory ground estimate, 24.17 +/- 0.06 Gt, i.e., within 1%. The national biomass total based on linear ground-ALS and ALS-GLAS models (25.87 +/- 0.49 Gt) overestimated the national ground-based estimate by 7.5%. The comparable log-linear model result (63.29 +/-1.36 Gt) overestimated ground results by 261%. All three national biomass GLAS estimates, LIN, LNI, and log-linear, are based on 241,718 pulses collected on 230 orbits. The US national forest inventory (ground) estimates are based on 119,414 ground plots. At the US state level, the average absolute value of the deviation of LNI GLAS estimates from the comparable ground estimate of total biomass was 18.8% (range: Oregon,−40.8% to North Dakota, 128.6%). Log-linear models produced gross overestimates in the continental US, i.e., N2.6x, and the use of this model to predict regional biomass using GLAS data in temperate, western hemisphere forests is not appropriate. The best model form, LNI, is used to produce biomass estimates in Mexico. The average biomass density in Mexican forests is 53.10 +/- 0.88 t/ha, and the total biomass for the country, given a total forest area of 688,096 sq km, is 3.65 +/- 0.06 Gt. In Mexico, our GLAS biomass total underestimated a 2005 FAO estimate (4.152 Gt) by 12% and overestimated a 2007/8 radar study's figure (3.06 Gt) by 19%.

Hybrid 3-Phase sampling↗

Integration and validation of some modules for modelling of high-speed chemically reactive flows in two-phase gas-droplet mixtures

Three modules are integrated into the built-in OpenFOAM rhoCentralFoam solver towards accurate and efficient modelling of high-speed chemically reactive flows in two-phase gas-droplet mixtures within the OpenFOAM 10.0 framework. The first module is the mixture-averaged diffusion model. The second module is the built-in OpenFOAM Lagrangian solver coupled with optimised droplet drag coefficient and convective heat transfer coefficient sub-models. The last module is a sparse stiff chemistry solver based on dynamic adaptive hybrid integration (AHI-S). The optimised droplet sub-models are first verified in correct implementation for subsequent simulations in this work. Further, they show good accuracy against experimental and analytical data in the modelling of ammonia droplet acceleration and cooling in the flowing and/or low-temperature air. The accuracy and efficiency gains related to the mixture-averaged diffusion model and the AHI-S chemistry solver are examined by simulating 1-D detonation propagation in ammonia droplet-free/laden ammoniaoxygen mixtures. Numerical results of detonation propagation speed, gaseous temperature, density, and species distributions around the induction zone show good agreement with experimental data and analytical solutions. Compared to the built-in OpenFOAM diffusion model, the mixture-averaged diffusion model provides different numerical predictions of pulsating instabilities in detonation propagation. It shows better accuracy in depicting the detonation structure within the droplet-free section attributed to improved multi-component diffusion modelling. Compared to the built-in OpenFOAM solver EulerImplicit (backward Euler), the AHI-S chemistry solver reduces the computational cost by around 50%. It achieves satisfactory accuracy in calculating detonation propagation speed within the droplet-free section with the optimal efficiency when the safety factor, β, equals 0.5.

42 ENGINEERING↗

H2Integrate [SWR-23-31]

H2Integrate(H2I) is an open-source Python package for hybrid systems engineering design and technoeconomic analysis. It models and optimizes hybrid energy plants that produce electricity, hydrogen, ammonia, steel, and other products. H2Integrate is designed to be flexible and extensible, allowing users to create their own components and models for various energy systems. The tool currently includes distributed energy generation (wind, solar, wave, tidal), battery storage, hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and steel technologies. Other elements such as desalination systems, pipelines, compressors, and storage systems can also be included as developed by users. Some modeling capabilities in H2Integrate are provided by integrating existing tools, such as HOPP, PySAM, ORBIT, and ProFAST. The H2Integrate tool is built on top of NASA's OpenMDAO framework, which provides a powerful and flexible environment for modeling and optimization.

King, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

Electrochemical carbon dioxide concentrator subsystem math model

A steady state computer simulation model has been developed to describe the performance of a total six man, self-contained electrochemical carbon dioxide concentrator subsystem built for the space station prototype. The math model combines expressions describing the performance of the electrochemical depolarized carbon dioxide concentrator cells and modules previously developed with expressions describing the performance of the other major CS-6 components. The model is capable of accurately predicting CS-6 performance over EDC operating ranges and the computer simulation results agree with experimental data obtained over the prediction range.

Marshall, R. D.↗

A Study of Upgraded Phenolic Curing for RSRM Nozzle Rings

A thermochemical cure model for predicting temperature and degree of cure profiles in curing phenolic parts was developed, validated and refined over several years. The model supports optimization of cure cycles and allows input of properties based upon the types of material and the process by which these materials are used to make nozzle components. The model has been refined to use sophisticated computer graphics to demonstrate the changes in temperature and degree of cure during the curing process. The effort discussed in the paper will be the conversion from an outdated solid modeling input program and SINDA analysis code to an integrated solid modeling and analysis package (I-DEAS solid model and TMG). Also discussed will be the incorporation of updated material properties obtained during full scale curing tests into the cure models and the results for all the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle rings.

Smartt, Ziba↗

Space to Space Advanced EMU Radio

The main task for this project was the development of a prototype for the Space to Space Advanced EMU Radio (SSAER). The SSAER is an updated version of the Space to Space EMU Radio (SSER), which is the current radio used by EMUs (Extravehicular Mobility Unit) for communication between suits and with the ISS. The SSER was developed in 1999, and it was desired to update the design used in the system. Importantly, besides replacing out-of-production parts it was necessary to decrease the size of the radio due to increased volume constraints with the updated Portable Life Support System (PLSS) 2.5, which will be attached on future space suits. In particular, it was desired to fabricate a PCB for the front-end of the prototype SSAER system. Once this board was manufactured and all parts assembled, it could then be tested for quality of operation as well as compliancy with the SSER required specifications. Upon arrival, a small outline of the target system was provided, and it was my responsibility to take that outline to a finished, testable board. This board would include several stages, including frequency mixing, amplification, modulation, demodulation, and handled both the transmit and receive lines of the radio. I developed a new design based on the old SSER system and the outline provided to me, and found parts to fit the tasks in my design. It was also important to consider the specifications of the SSER, which included the system noise figure, gain, and power consumption. Further, all parts needed to be impedance matched, and spurious signals needed to be avoided. In order to fulfill these two requirements, it was necessary to perform some calculations using a Smith Chart and excel analysis. Once all parts were selected, I drew the schematics for the system in Altium Designer. This included developing schematic symbols, as well as layout. Once the schematic was finished, it was then necessary to lay the parts out onto a PCB using Altium. Similar to the schematic design, in order to accomplish this it was necessary to develop component land patterns and add component 3D models. All of this was achieved, and the PCB is currently in review. After it is finished being reviewed, this board will be sent out for manufacture. All electronic components used in the PCB have been acquired, and once the board arrives they will be soldered onto the board using a machine in building 44. Finally, the board will be tested for performance on-site. This will likely be accomplished by the end of the internship.

Maicke, Andrew↗

Performance evaluation of an air conditioning system based on quasi isothermal dehumidifcation

This work presents a first study of novel air conditioning system based on quasi isothermal dehumidification combined with dew-point evaporative cooling through the Maisotsenko cycle (M-Cycle). The dehumidification process is realized in desiccant coated heat exchanger with heat rejection system. The key idea behind the solution is to maximize the cooling effectiveness by creating favourable conditions for dehumidification and evaporative cooling process. This is achieved by rejecting the heat of sorption in the desiccant system and providing cold and dry air for M-Cycle air cooler, which allows the system to be powered by using low-grade heat energy at 50 °C. The analysis is performed on the basis of experimentally validated numerical models of each component combined in a unified model of the system. The goal of the study is to determine the performance of the solution under different operational conditions. In addition two types of M-Cycle air coolers (i.e. cross-flow and regenerative unit) are compared to establish which unit is more suitable as the source of cooling energy for the system. It was established that proposed system is able to provide comfortable room parameters (supply air temperature equal 17 °C and humidity ratio equal 0.010 kg/kg-da) for outdoor air temperatures ranging from 28 to 36 °C and outdoor air humidity ranging from 0.010 to 0.018 kg/kg-da. This means that the proposed solution is able to provide comfortable conditions in temperate and humid climates. Results also indicate that the system consisting of the regenerative M-Cycle HMX allows better cooling load management, offers higher thermal Coefficient of Performance (COP th ) and uses less water compared to the system with the cross-flow HMX. However, the system with cross-flow heat and mass exchanger (HMX) has a relatively greater electrical Coefficient of Performance (COP el ) in most cases.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Performance modeling of earth resources remote sensors

A technique is presented for constructing a mathematical model of an earth resources remote sensor. The technique combines established models of electronic and optical components with formulated models of scan and vibration effects, and it includes a model of the radiation effects of the earth's atmosphere. The resulting composite model is useful for predicting in-flight sensor performance, and a descriptive set of performance parameters is derived in terms of the model. A method is outlined for validating the model for each sensor of interest. The validation for one airborne infrared scanning system is accomplished in part by a satisfactory comparison of predicted response with laboratory data for that sensor.

Kidd, R. H.↗

Dynamic modeling of brushless dc motor-power conditioner unit for electromechanical actuator application

A comprehensive digital model for the analysis of the dynamic-instantaneous performance of a power conditioner fed samarium-cobalt permanent magnet brushless DC motor is presented. The particular power conditioner-machine system at hand, for which this model was developed, is a component of an actual prototype electromechanical actuator built for NASA-JSC as a possible alternative to hydraulic actuators as part of feasibility studies for the shuttle orbiter applications. Excellent correlation between digital simulated and experimentally obtained performance data was achieved for this specific prototype. This is reported on in this paper. Details of one component of the model, its applications and the corresponding results are given in this paper.

Demerdash, N. A.↗

Synchrotron emission and gamma-ray bursts

The parameter space within which synchrotron emission models for gamma-ray burst spectra are valid is evaluated in the cases of thermal and power-law particle distributions. The spectra emitted by noncooling and cooling thermal and power-law particle distributions are modeled numerically over relativistic and nonrelativistic regimes. The structure of the radiation is defined near the fundamental and the continuum up to the 1000th harmonic. Comparisons are made with burst event data collected during the Apollo 16, Venera, SMM, Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Hackucho missions. A two-component synchrotron model is proposed for gamma-ray burst events. The electron-positron distribution is projected to have a thermal component and a nonthermal power-law tail.

Brainerd, J. J.↗

LSPRAY-IV: A Lagrangian Spray Module

LSPRAY-IV is a Lagrangian spray solver developed for application with parallel computing and unstructured grids. It is designed to be massively parallel and could easily be coupled with any existing gas-phase flow and/or Monte Carlo Probability Density Function (PDF) solvers. The solver accommodates the use of an unstructured mesh with mixed elements of either triangular, quadrilateral, and/or tetrahedral type for the gas flow grid representation. It is mainly designed to predict the flow, thermal and transport properties of a rapidly vaporizing spray. Some important research areas covered as a part of the code development are: (1) the extension of combined CFD/scalar-Monte- Carlo-PDF method to spray modeling, (2) the multi-component liquid spray modeling, and (3) the assessment of various atomization models used in spray calculations. The current version contains the extension to the modeling of superheated sprays. The manual provides the user with an understanding of various models involved in the spray formulation, its code structure and solution algorithm, and various other issues related to parallelization and its coupling with other solvers.

Raju, M. S.↗