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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Patterns, drivers, and a predictive model of dam removal cost in the United States

Given the burgeoning dam removal movement and the large number of dams approaching obsolescence in the United States, cost estimating data and tools are needed for dam removal prioritization, planning, and execution. We used the list of removed dams compiled by American Rivers to search for publicly available reported costs for dam removal projects. Total cost information could include component costs related to project planning, dam deconstruction, monitoring, and several categories of mitigation activities. We compiled reported costs from 455 unique sources for 668 dams removed in the United States from 1965 to 2020. The dam removals occurred within 571 unique projects involving 1–18 dams. When adjusted for inflation into 2020 USD, cost of these projects totaled $\$1.522$ billion, with per-dam costs ranging from $\$1$ thousand (k) to $\$268.8$ million (M). The median cost for dam removals was $\$157$k, $\$823$k, and $\$6.2$M for dams that were< 5 m, between 5–10 m, and > 10 m in height, respectively. Geographic differences in total costs showed that northern states in general, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, spent the most on dam removal. The Midwest and the Northeast spent proportionally more on removal of dams less than 5 m in height, whereas the Northwest and Southwest spent the most on larger dam removals > 10 m tall. We used stochastic gradient boosting with quantile regression to model dam removal cost against potential predictor variables including dam characteristics (dam height and material), hydrography (average annual discharge and drainage area), project complexity (inferred from construction and sediment management, mitigation, and post-removal cost drivers), and geographic region. Dam height, annual average discharge at the dam site, and project complexity were the predominant drivers of removal cost. The final model had an R 2 of 57% and when applied to a test dataset model predictions had a root mean squared error of $\$5.09$M and a mean absolute error of $\$1.45$M, indicating its potential utility to predict estimated costs of dam removal. We developed a R shiny application for estimating dam removal costs using customized model inputs for exploratory analyses and potential dam removal planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Raindrop Size Spectrum in Deep Convective Regions of the Americas

This study compared drop size distribution (DSD) measurements on the surfaces, the corresponding properties, and the precipitation modes among three deep convective regions within the Americas. The measurement compilation corresponded to two sites in the midlatitudes: the U.S. Southern Great Plains and Córdoba Province in subtropical South America, as well as to one site in the tropics: Manacapuru in central Amazonia; these are all areas where intense rain-producing systems contribute to the majority of rainfall in the Americas’ largest river basins. This compilation included two types of disdrometers (Parsivel and 2D-Video Disdrometer) that were used at the midlatitude sites and one type of disdrometer (Parsivel) that was deployed at the tropical site. The distributions of physical parameters (such as rain rate R, mass-weighted mean diameter D m , and normalized droplet concentration N w ) for the raindrop spectra without rainfall mode classification seemed similar, except for the much broader N w distributions in Córdoba. The raindrop spectra were then classified into a light precipitation mode and a precipitation mode by using a cutoff at 0.5 mm h -1 based on previous studies that characterized the full drop size spectra. These segregated rain modes are potentially unique relative to previously studied terrain-influenced sites. In the light precipitation and precipitation modes, the dominant higher frequency observed in a broad distribution of N w in both types of disdrometers and the identification of shallow light precipitation in vertically pointing cloud radar data represent unique characteristics of the Córdoba site relative to the others. As a result, the co-variability between the physical parameters of the DSD indicates that the precipitation observed in Córdoba may confound existing methods of determining the rain type by using the drop size distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Complex Oxide Nanoparticle Synthesis: Where to Begin to Do It Right?

Synthesis of advanced ceramics requires a high degree of control over the particle size and stoichiometry of the material. When choosing a synthesis method for complex oxides it is important to begin with the correct precursors and solvents to achieve high purity nanoparticles. Here, we detail the selection process for precursors and solvents for liquid-phase precipitation synthesis. Data for metal nitrate, chloride, acetate, and oxalate precursors has been compiled to assist future synthesis. The role of hydration within the precursors is discussed as it affects the final stoichiometry of the material. Melting temperatures are also compiled for these compounds to assist in material selection. The solubility of the precursors in different solvents is examined to determine the correct solvent during synthesis. As an example, using the methodology presented here, two different materials are synthesized based on commonly available precursors. A catalyst based on a quaternary perovskite and an advanced ionic conductor based on a high entropy fluorite oxide are synthesized using precipitation methods and their characterization is detailed.

Gager, Elizabeth (ORCID:0000000306046571)↗

An Evaluation of Energy Storage Cost and Performance Characteristics

The energy storage industry continues to expand globally as costs continue to fall and opportunities in consumer, transportation and grid applications are defined. As the rapid evolution of the industry continues, it has become increasingly important to understand how varying technologies compare in terms of cost and performance. This paper defines and evaluates cost and performance parameters of six battery energy storage technologies (BESS) - lithium-ion batteries, lead-acid batteries, redox flow batteries, sodium-sulfur batteries, sodium metal halide batteries, and zinc-hybrid cathode batteries - four non-BESS storage technologies - pumped storage hydropower, flywheels, compressed air energy storage, and ultracapacitors - and combustion turbines. Cost and performance information was compiled based on an extensive literature review, conversations with vendors and stakeholders, and costs of systems procured at sites across the United States. Detailed cost and performance estimates are presented for 2018 and projected out to 2025. Annualized costs were also calculated for each technology.

Mongird, Kendall↗

THE LARGE SKY AREA MULTI-OBJECT FIBER SPECTROSCOPIC TELESCOPE QUASAR SURVEY: QUASAR PROPERTIES FROM THE FIRST DATA RELEASE

We present preliminary results of the quasar survey in the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) first data release (DR1), which includes the pilot survey and the first year of the regular survey. There are 3921 quasars reliably identified, among which 1180 are new quasars discovered in the survey. These quasars are at low to median redshifts, with a highest z of 4.83. We compile emission line measurements around the Hα, Hβ, Mg ii, and C iv regions for the new quasars. The continuum luminosities are inferred from SDSS photometric data with model fitting, as the spectra in DR1 are non-flux-calibrated. We also compile the virial black hole mass estimates, with flags indicating the selection methods, and broad absorption line quasars. The catalog and spectra for these quasars are also available. Of the 3921 quasars, 28% are independently selected with optical–infrared colors, indicating that the method is quite promising for the completeness of the quasar survey. LAMOST DR1 and the ongoing quasar survey will provide valuable data for studies of quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE DISTANCE DUALITY RELATION FROM STRONG GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

Under very general assumptions of the metric theory of spacetime, photons traveling along null geodesics and photon number conservation, two observable concepts of cosmic distance, i.e., the angular diameter and the luminosity distances are related to each other by the so-called distance duality relation (DDR) D{sup L}=D{sup A}(1+z){sup 2}. Observational validation of this relation is quite important because any evidence of its violation could be a signal of new physics. In this paper we introduce a new method to test the DDR based on strong gravitational lensing systems and type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) under a flat universe. The method itself is worth attention because unlike previously proposed techniques, it does not depend on all other prior assumptions concerning the details of cosmological model. We tested it using a new compilation of strong lensing (SL) systems and JLA compilation of SNe Ia and found no evidence of DDR violation. For completeness, we also combined it with previous cluster data and showed its power on constraining the DDR. It could become a promising new probe in the future in light of forthcoming massive SL surveys and because of expected advances in galaxy cluster modeling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

UNCERTAINTIES IN GALACTIC CHEMICAL EVOLUTION MODELS

We use a simple one-zone galactic chemical evolution model to quantify the uncertainties generated by the input parameters in numerical predictions for a galaxy with properties similar to those of the Milky Way. We compiled several studies from the literature to gather the current constraints for our simulations regarding the typical value and uncertainty of the following seven basic parameters: the lower and upper mass limits of the stellar initial mass function (IMF), the slope of the high-mass end of the stellar IMF, the slope of the delay-time distribution function of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), the number of SNe Ia per M {sub ⊙} formed, the total stellar mass formed, and the final mass of gas. We derived a probability distribution function to express the range of likely values for every parameter, which were then included in a Monte Carlo code to run several hundred simulations with randomly selected input parameters. This approach enables us to analyze the predicted chemical evolution of 16 elements in a statistical manner by identifying the most probable solutions, along with their 68% and 95% confidence levels. Our results show that the overall uncertainties are shaped by several input parameters that individually contribute at different metallicities, and thus at different galactic ages. The level of uncertainty then depends on the metallicity and is different from one element to another. Among the seven input parameters considered in this work, the slope of the IMF and the number of SNe Ia are currently the two main sources of uncertainty. The thicknesses of the uncertainty bands bounded by the 68% and 95% confidence levels are generally within 0.3 and 0.6 dex, respectively. When looking at the evolution of individual elements as a function of galactic age instead of metallicity, those same thicknesses range from 0.1 to 0.6 dex for the 68% confidence levels and from 0.3 to 1.0 dex for the 95% confidence levels. The uncertainty in our chemical evolution model does not include uncertainties relating to stellar yields, star formation and merger histories, and modeling assumptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CONSTRAINTS ON NON-FLAT COSMOLOGIES WITH MASSIVE NEUTRINOS AFTER PLANCK 2015

We investigate two dark energy cosmological models (i.e., the ΛCDM and ϕ CDM models) with massive neutrinos assuming two different neutrino mass hierarchies in both the spatially flat and non-flat scenarios, where in the ϕ CDM model the scalar field possesses an inverse power-law potential, V ( ϕ ) ∝ ϕ {sup −} {sup α} ( α > 0). Cosmic microwave background data from Planck 2015, baryon acoustic oscillation data from 6dFGS, SDSS-MGS, BOSS-LOWZ and BOSS CMASS-DR11, the joint light-curve analysis compilation of SNe Ia apparent magnitude observations, and the Hubble Space Telescope H {sub 0} prior, are jointly employed to constrain the model parameters. We first determine constraints assuming three species of degenerate massive neutrinos. In the spatially flat (non-flat) ΛCDM model, the sum of neutrino masses is bounded as Σ m {sub ν} < 0.165(0.299) eV at 95% confidence level (CL). Correspondingly, in the flat (non-flat) ϕ CDM model, we find Σ m {sub ν} < 0.164(0.301) eV at 95% CL. The inclusion of spatial curvature as a free parameter results in a significant broadening of confidence regions for Σ m {sub ν} and other parameters. In the scenario where the total neutrino mass is dominated by the heaviest neutrino mass eigenstate, we obtain similar conclusions to those obtained in the degenerate neutrino mass scenario. In addition, the results show that the bounds on Σ m {sub ν} based on two different neutrino mass hierarchies have insignificant differences in the spatially flat case for both the ΛCDM and ϕ CDM models; however, the corresponding differences are larger in the non-flat case.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A COMPREHENSIVE CENSUS OF NEARBY INFRARED EXCESS STARS

The conclusion of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer ( WISE ) mission presents an opportune time to summarize the history of using excess emission in the infrared as a tracer of circumstellar material and exploit all available data for future missions such as the James Webb Space Telescope . We have compiled a catalog of infrared excess stars from peer-reviewed articles and perform an extensive search for new infrared excess stars by cross-correlating the Tycho-2 and all-sky WISE (AllWISE) catalogs. We define a significance of excess in four spectral type divisions and select stars showing greater than either 3 σ or 5 σ significance of excess in the mid- and far-infrared. Through procedures including spectral energy distribution fitting and various image analyses, each potential excess source was rigorously vetted to eliminate false positives. The infrared excess stars from the literature and the new stars found through the Tycho-2 and AllWISE cross-correlation produced nearly 500 “Prime” infrared excess stars, of which 74 are new sources of excess, and >1200 are “Reserved” stars, of which 950 are new sources of excess. The main catalog of infrared excess stars are nearby, bright, and either demonstrate excess in more than one passband or have infrared spectroscopy confirming the infrared excess. This study identifies stars that display a spectral energy distribution suggestive of a secondary or post-protoplanetary generation of dust, and they are ideal targets for future optical and infrared imaging observations. The final catalogs of stars summarize the past work using infrared excess to detect dust disks, and with the most extensive compilation of infrared excess stars (∼1750) to date, we investigate various relationships among stellar and disk parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spitzer Variability Properties of Low-gravity L Dwarfs

We present Spitzer Space Telescope variability monitoring observations of three low-gravity L dwarfs with previous detections of variability in the near-IR: 2MASS J0045+16, 2MASS J0501–00, and 2MASS J1425–36. We detect significant periodic variability in two of our targets, 2MASS J0045+16 and 2MASS J0501–00. We do not detect variability in 2MASS J1425–36. Combining our new rotation periods with rotational velocities, we calculate inclination angles of 22° ± 1°, 60{sub -8}{sup +13°}, and 52{sub -13}{sup +19°} for 2MASS J0045+16, 2MASS J0501–00, and 2MASS J1425–36, respectively. Our three new objects are consistent with the tentative relations between inclination, amplitude, and color anomaly previously reported. Objects with the highest variability amplitudes are inclined equator on, while the maximum observed amplitude decreases as the inclination angle decreases. We also find a correlation between the inclination angle and (J–K){sub 2MASS} color anomaly for the sample of objects with measured inclinations. Compiling the entire sample of brown dwarfs with Spitzer variability detections, we find no enhancement in amplitude for young, early-L dwarfs compared to the field dwarf population. We find a possible enhancement in amplitude of low-gravity late-L dwarfs at 4.5 μm. We do not find a correlation between amplitude ratio and spectral type for field dwarfs or for the young population. Finally, we compile the rotation periods of a large sample of brown dwarfs with ages 1 Myr–1 Gyr and compare the rotation rates predicted by evolutionary models assuming angular momentum conservation. We find that the rotation rates of the current sample of brown dwarfs fall within the expected range set by evolutionary models and breakup limits.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Calibration of the Hα Age–Activity Relation for M Dwarfs

In this work, we calibrate the relationship between Hα emission and M dwarf ages. We compile a sample of 892 M dwarfs with Hα equivalent width (Hα EW) measurements from the literature that are either comoving with a white dwarf of known age (21 stars) or in a known young association (871 stars). In this sample we identify 7 M dwarfs that are new candidate members of known associations. By dividing the stars into active and inactive categories according to their Hα EW and spectral type (SpT), we find that the fraction of active dwarfs decreases with increasing age, and the form of the decline depends on SpT. Using the compiled sample of age calibrators, we find that Hα EW and fractional Hα luminosity (L {sub Hα}/L {sub bol}) decrease with increasing age. Hα EW for SpT ≤ M7 decreases gradually up until ∼1 Gyr. For older ages, we found only two early M dwarfs that are both inactive and seem to continue the gradual decrease. We also found 14 mid-type M dwarfs, out of which 11 are inactive and present a significant decrease in Hα EW, suggesting that the magnetic activity decreases rapidly after ∼1 Gyr. We fit L {sub Hα}/L {sub bol} versus age with a broken power law and find an index of −0.11{sub −0.01}{sup +0.02} for ages ≲776 Myr. The index becomes much steeper at older ages, but a lack of field age-calibrators (≫1 Gyr) leaves this part of the relation far less constrained. Finally, from repeated independent measurements for the same stars, we find that 94% of them have a level of Hα EW variability ≤5 Å at young ages (<1 Gyr).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Determining the hubble constant from hubble parameter measurements

We use 28 measurements of the Hubble parameter, H(z), at intermediate redshifts 0.07⩽z⩽2.3 to determine the present-day Hubble constant H{sub 0} in four cosmological models. We measure H{sub 0}=68.3{sub −2.6}{sup +2.7},68.4{sub −3.3}{sup +2.9},65.0{sub −6.6}{sup +6.5}, and 67.9{sub −2.4}{sup +2.4} km s{sup −1} Mpc{sup −1} (1σ errors) in the ΛCDM (spatially flat and non-flat), ωCDM, and ϕCDM models, respectively. These measured H{sub 0} values are more consistent with the lower values determined from recent data on the cosmic microwave background and baryon acoustic oscillations, as well as with the value found from a median statistical analysis of Huchra’s compilation of H{sub 0} measurements, but include the higher local measurements of H{sub 0} within the 2σ confidence limits.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Panchromatic View of Brown Dwarf Aurorae

Stellar coronal activity has been shown to persist into the low-mass star regime, down to late M-dwarf spectral types. However, there is now an accumulation of evidence suggesting that at the end of the main sequence, there is a transition in the nature of the magnetic activity from chromospheric and coronal to planet-like and auroral, from local impulsive heating via flares and MHD wave dissipation to energy dissipation from strong large-scale magnetospheric current systems. We examine this transition and the prevalence of auroral activity in brown dwarfs through a compilation of multiwavelength surveys of magnetic activity, including radio, X-ray, and optical. We compile the results of those surveys and place their conclusions in the context of auroral emission as a consequence of large-scale magnetospheric current systems that accelerate energetic electron beams and drive the particles to impact the cool atmospheric gas. We explore the different manifestations of auroral phenomena, like H α , in brown dwarf atmospheres and define their distinguishing characteristics. We conclude that large-amplitude photometric variability in the near-infrared is most likely a consequence of clouds in brown dwarf atmospheres, but that auroral activity may be responsible for long-lived stable surface features. We report a connection between auroral H α emission and quiescent radio emission in electron cyclotron maser instability pulsing brown dwarfs, suggesting a potential underlying physical connection between quiescent and auroral emissions. We also discuss the electrodynamic engines powering brown dwarf aurorae and the possible role of satellites around these systems both to power the aurorae and seed the magnetosphere with plasma.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Symphony: Cosmological Zoom-in Simulation Suites over Four Decades of Host Halo Mass

Abstract We present Symphony, a compilation of 262 cosmological, cold-dark-matter-only zoom-in simulations spanning four decades of host halo mass, from 10 11 –10 15 M ⊙ . This compilation includes three existing simulation suites at the cluster and Milky Way–mass scales, and two new suites: 39 Large Magellanic Cloud-mass (10 11 M ⊙ ) and 49 strong-lens-analog (10 13 M ⊙ ) group-mass hosts. Across the entire host halo mass range, the highest-resolution regions in these simulations are resolved with a dark matter particle mass of ≈3 × 10 −7 times the host virial mass and a Plummer-equivalent gravitational softening length of ≈9 × 10 −4 times the host virial radius, on average. We measure correlations between subhalo abundance and host concentration, formation time, and maximum subhalo mass, all of which peak at the Milky Way host halo mass scale. Subhalo abundances are ≈50% higher in clusters than in lower-mass hosts at fixed sub-to-host halo mass ratios. Subhalo radial distributions are approximately self-similar as a function of host mass and are less concentrated than hosts’ underlying dark matter distributions. We compare our results to the semianalytic model Galacticus , which predicts subhalo mass functions with a higher normalization at the low-mass end and radial distributions that are slightly more concentrated than Symphony. We use UniverseMachine to model halo and subhalo star formation histories in Symphony, and we demonstrate that these predictions resolve the formation histories of the halos that host nearly all currently observable satellite galaxies in the universe. To promote open use of Symphony, data products are publicly available at http://web.stanford.edu/group/gfc/symphony .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Union through UNITY: Cosmology with 2000 SNe Using a Unified Bayesian Framework

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of 2 in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN data sets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date “Union” compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 data sets (“Union3”). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of 10, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape/color populations/standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7σ–2.6σ tension with flat cold dark matter and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > − 1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.

Rubin, David↗

UPCluster-SZ: The Updated Catalog of Galaxy Clusters from the List of Planck Sunyaev–Zel’dovich Sources

Abstract We present the updated galaxy cluster catalog of the second Planck catalog of Sunyaev–Zel’dovich sources (PSZ2) through the compilation of the data for clusters and galaxies with spectroscopically measured redshifts in the literature. The original version of PSZ2 comprises 1653 Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) sources, of which 1203 have been validated as genuine galaxy clusters, while the remaining 450 sources are yet to be validated. To increase the number of genuine clusters in PSZ2, we first update the validations of the cluster candidates and their redshift information using the data compiled for the confirmed clusters and the member galaxies in the literature. We then use the galaxy redshift data in the fields of the remaining cluster candidates by searching for possible member galaxies with measured spectroscopic redshifts around the SZ centroids. In this search process, we classify clusters as strong candidates if they contain more than nine galaxies within a 4500 km s −1 velocity range and within 15′ around the SZ centroids. This process results in the validation of 139 new genuine clusters, the update of redshift information on 399 clusters, and the identification of 10 strong candidates, which increases the number of validated clusters up to 1334 among the 1653 SZ sources. Our updated galaxy cluster catalog will be very useful for studies of galaxy formation and cosmology through a combination with other all-sky surveys including the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer and SPHEREx.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Implementing Ordinary Differential Equation Solvers in Rust Programming Language for Modeling Vehicle Powertrain Systems: Preprint

Efficient and accurate ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers are necessary for powertrain and vehicle dynamics modeling. However, current commercial ODE solvers can be financially prohibitive, leading to a need for accessible, effective, open-source ODE solvers designed for powertrain modeling. Rust is a compiled programming language that has the potential to be used for fast and easy-to-use powertrain models, given its exceptional computational performance, robust package ecosystem, and short time required for modelers to become proficient. However, of the three commonly used (>3,000 downloads) packages in Rust with ODE solver capabilities, only one has more than four numerical methods implemented, and none are designed specifically for modeling physical systems. Therefore, the goal of the Differential Equation System Solver (DESS) was to implement accurate ODE solvers in Rust designed for the component-based problems often seen in powertrain modeling. DESS is a text-based software package that provides a flexible framework for building and solving systems of ODEs. This allows DESS to be included as a dependency for automotive powertrain models that require a variety of solvers and solver configurations. Seven explicit ODE solver methods have been implemented in DESS: Euler’s, Heun’s, midpoint, Ralston’s, classic Runge-Kutta, Bogacki-Shampine, and Cash-Karp. These represent five fixed-step methods and two adaptive-step methods. This paper shows that the solver implementations increase accuracy and computational efficiency compared to Euler's method when modeling a system of three thermal masses in Rust. DESS also includes features designed for modeling component-based physical systems. Users can define relationships between nodes in their system, which the package then translates into a system of equations, leading to simpler and more intuitive code. In the case of a three-thermal-mass system, the user can specify node thermal properties (e.g., thermal capacitance), how nodes are interconnected, and thermal conductance between nodes rather than providing a system of equations. The core contribution from this work is an open-source, text-based Rust package with ODE solvers for automotive powertrain modeling to support cost-free, fast, and accurate simulation.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

20th century changes in carbon isotopes and water-use efficiency: tree-ring-based evaluation of the CLM4.5 and LPX-Bern models

Measurements of the stable carbon isotope ratio ( δ 13 C) on annual tree rings offer new opportunities to evaluate mechanisms of variations in photosynthesis and stomatal conductance under changing CO 2 and climate conditions, especially in conjunction with process-based biogeochemical model simulations. The isotopic discrimination is indicative of the ratio between the CO 2 partial pressure in the intercellular cavities and the atmosphere ( c i / c a ) and of the ratio of assimilation to stomatal conductance, termed intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). We performed isotope-enabled simulations over the industrial period with the land biosphere module (CLM4.5) of the Community Earth System Model and the Land Surface Processes and Exchanges (LPX-Bern) dynamic global vegetation model. Results for C3 tree species show good agreement with a global compilation of δ 13 C measurements on leaves, though modeled 13 C discrimination by C3 trees is smaller in arid regions than measured. A compilation of 76 tree-ring records, mainly from Europe, boreal Asia, and western North America, suggests on average small 20th century changes in isotopic discrimination and in c i / c a and an increase in iWUE of about 27% since 1900. LPX-Bern results match these century-scale reconstructions, supporting the idea that the physiology of stomata has evolved to optimize trade-offs between carbon gain by assimilation and water loss by transpiration. In contrast, CLM4.5 simulates an increase in discrimination and in turn a change in iWUE that is almost twice as large as that revealed by the tree-ring data. Factorial simulations show that these changes are mainly in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 . The results suggest that the downregulation of c i / c a and of photosynthesis by nitrogen limitation is possibly too strong in the standard setup of CLM4.5 or that there may be problems associated with the implementation of conductance, assimilation, and related adjustment processes on long-term environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗