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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Assessment of Precision in Temperatures from the Microwave Sounding Units

Monitoring the earth system has traditionally focused on measurements at the earth's surface because this is where we live and perform our most obvious life sustaining functions. In just the past few decades, however, efforts have been initiated to assess the character of the atmosphere above the surface. Regular upper-air measurements by balloon ascents in scattered locations began in the 1940's and observations from satellites generally began in 1979. The upper air is important in the climate context because changes in these higher levels may offer more discernible relationships to such phenomena as global warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect than seen at other levels. The probability that climate-change trends in the mid-troposphere (5-8 km) will be more clearly evident against the background of natural variability than at, for example, the surface. Indeed, results from coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that in terms of a global mean quantity the troposphere will actually warm at a rate greater than that of the surface temperature. At higher elevations, above 12 km, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 1990 indicates there is a high degree of certainty that a greenhouse-gas induced decrease in stratospheric temperatures will occur. The measure of change in these upper atmospheric layers, in combination with quantities observed at the surface, provide an ensemble of information to give the most robust opportunity for climate change detection.

Christy, John R.↗

Volcanic Contribution to Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Temperature

Despite continued growth in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, global mean surface and tropospheric temperatures have shown slower warming since 1998 than previously. Possible explanations for the slow-down include internal climate variability, external cooling influences and observational errors. Several recent modelling studies have examined the contribution of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions to the muted surface warming. Here we present a detailed analysis of the impact of recent volcanic forcing on tropospheric temperature, based on observations as well as climate model simulations. We identify statistically significant correlations between observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and satellite-based estimates of both tropospheric temperature and short-wave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We show that climate model simulations without the effects of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions overestimate the tropospheric warming observed since 1998. In two simulations with more realistic volcanic influences following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, differences between simulated and observed tropospheric temperature trends over the period 1998 to 2012 are up to 15% smaller, with large uncertainties in the magnitude of the effect. To reduce these uncertainties, better observations of eruption-specific properties of volcanic aerosols are needed, as well as improved representation of these eruption-specific properties in climate model simulations.

Atmospheric temperature↗

The Influence of Direct Radiative Forcing Versus Indirect Sea Surface Temperature Warming on Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Anticyclones Under Global Warming

Southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones are projected to change in a warmer climate during both austral summer and winter. A recent study of CMIP 5 & 6 projections found a combination of local diabatic heating changes and static-stability-induced changes in baroclinic eddy growth as the dominant drivers. Yet the underlying mechanisms forcing these changes still remain uninvestigated. This study aims to enhance our mechanistic understanding of what drives these Southern Hemisphere anticyclones changes during both seasons. Using an AGCM, we decompose the response to CO2-induced warming into two components: (1) the fast atmospheric response to direct CO2 radiative forcing, and (2) the slow atmospheric response due to indirect sea surface temperature warming. Additionally, we isolate the influence of tropical diabatic heating with AGCM added heating experiments. As a complement to our numerical AGCM experiments, we analyze the Atmospheric and Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project experiments. Results from sensitivity experiments show that slow subtropical sea surface temperature warming primarily forces the projected changes in subtropical anticyclones through baroclinicity change. Fast CO2 atmospheric radiative forcing on the other hand plays a secondary role, with the most notable exception being the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone in austral winter, where it opposes the forcing by sea surface temperature changes resulting in a muted net response. Lastly, we find that tropical diabatic heating changes only significantly influence Southern Hemisphere subtropical anticyclone changes through tropospheric wind shear changes during austral winter.

Subtropical anticyclone↗

Characteristics of Future Warmer Base States in CESM2

Abstract Simulations of 21st century climate with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the standard atmosphere (CAM6), denoted CESM2(CAM6), and the latest generation of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6), denoted CESM2(WACCM6), are presented, and a survey of general results is described. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of CESM2(CAM6) is 5.3°C, and CESM2(WACCM6) is 4.8°C, while the transient climate response (TCR) is 2.1°C in CESM2(CAM6) and 2.0°C in CESM2(WACCM6). Thus, these two CESM2 model versions have higher values of ECS than the previous generation of model, the CESM (CAM5) (hereafter CESM1), that had an ECS of 4.1°C, though the CESM2 versions have lower values of TCR compared to the CESM1 with a somewhat higher value of 2.3°C. All model versions produce credible simulations of the time evolution of historical global surface temperature. The higher ECS values for the CESM2 versions are reflected in higher values of global surface temperature increase by 2,100 in CESM2(CAM6) and CESM2(WACCM6) compared to CESM1 between comparable emission scenarios for the high forcing scenario. Future warming among CESM2 model versions and scenarios diverges around 2050. The larger values of TCR and ECS in CESM2(CAM6) compared to CESM1 are manifested by greater warming in the tropics. Associated with a higher climate sensitivity, for CESM2(CAM6) the first instance of an ice‐free Arctic in September occurs for all scenarios and ensemble members in the 2030–2050 time frame, but about a decade later in CESM2(WACCM6), occurring around 2040–2060.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience). Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience, yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators, has changed during the period 2000–2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, probably related to increased water limitations and climate variability. By contrast, boreal forests show divergent local patterns with an average increasing trend in resilience, probably benefiting from warming and CO 2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests, corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, occurring in response to slow drifting towards a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in the capacity of forests to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reassessing the Climate Change Narrative

Abstract We note that the atmosphere has distinct tropical and extratropical regimes. The tropical regime is significantly dependent on the greenhouse effect and is characterized by temperatures that are largely horizontally homogenized. The extratropical regime is dominated by large scale unstable convective eddies that transport heat between the tropics and the poles (leaving the poles warmer than they otherwise would be) and serve to determine the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles. Changes in tropical temperature and in the tropics-to-pole temperature difference both contribute to changes in global mean temperature. It turns out that changes in global mean temperature associated with major climate change (i.e., the last glacial maximum and the warm period of the Eocene about 50 million years ago) were associated primarily with changes in the tropics-to-pole temperature differences. By contrast, changes in global mean temperature over the past 150 years or so are almost entirely associated with changes in tropical temperature. Thus, there is no intrinsic amplification associated with a change in the tropics-to-pole temperature difference. However, model simulations of climate behave differently from both observations and from each other. In particular, they all show more significant contributions for the tropics-to-pole temperature difference – sometimes much more significant. They also show excessive tropical warming.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Our Globally Changing Climate

Since the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA3) was published in May 2014, new observations along multiple lines of evidence have strengthened the conclusion that Earth's climate is changing at a pace and in a pattern not explainable by natural influences. While this report focuses especially on observed and projected future changes for the United States, it is important to understand those changes in the global context (this chapter). The world has warmed over the last 150 years, especially over the last six decades, and that warming has triggered many other changes to Earth's climate. Evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Thousands of studies conducted by tens of thousands of scientists around the world have documented changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; disappearing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea level; and an increase in atmospheric water vapor. Rainfall patterns and storms are changing, and the occurrence of droughts is shifting.

Wuebbles, D. J.↗

Performance Results from DOE Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge Field Validation

Space conditioning and water heating consume over 40% of the nation’s primary energy use and represent a significant component of many homeowners’ monthly energy bill. However, in cold climates, performance of heat pumps has traditionally suffered as the units have been unable to efficiently transfer heat from colder outdoor air temperatures to warm the interior space of homes. Optimizing heat pumps for cold climates (5 °F and below) requires coordinated effort to ensure heat pump technologies can be enjoyed by Americans living in these regions. The DOE Cold Climate Heat Pump (CCHP) Challenge sought to address this challenge by partnering with industry to develop, test, and validate the performance of new, highly efficient heat pumps in real homes. The Challenge, launched in 2021, brought together leading heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) manufacturers to develop prototype units optimized for performance at cold climates. This report summarizes results from the field validation that occurred 2022-2024.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Preliminary Screening of Features, Events, and Processes for an Arctic-Focused Climate Intervention Performance Assessment

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale intervention in Earth's climate system, holds significant potential in the rapidly warming Arctic, where temperatures currently rise at more than twice the global average, accelerating ice sheet and permafrost melt. This contributes to global sea-level rise and releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Strategies like solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) could mitigate these effects; for instance, SRM techniques aim to reflect a portion of the sun's energy back into space, potentially slowing ice melt and stabilizing permafrost. However, geoengineering in the Arctic faces challenges, including potential unintended consequences on the fragile ecosystem, disruption of local weather patterns, and impacts on indigenous communities. Effective governance requires robust international cooperation, environmental impact assessments, and regulatory frameworks. Despite these challenges, geoengineering's potential benefits make it a critical research area. This report explores application of the Performance Assessment (PA) methodology to Arctic Climate Intervention, providing an initial screening of relevant features, events, and processes (FEPs). At the core of the PA approach is the identification and evaluation of FEPs that could impact the performance of the intervention scheme. Here we provide an initial screening of FEPs to consider in the application of PA to Arctic Climate Intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The greenhouse theory of climate change - A test by an inadvertent global experiment

The greenhouse theory of climate change has reached the crucial stage of verification. Surface warming as large as that predicted by models would be unprecedented during an interglacial period such as the present. The theory, its scope for verification, and the emerging complexities of the climate feedback mechanisms are discussed in this paper. The evidence for change is described and competing nonclimatic forcings are discussed.

Ramanathan, V.↗

High‐Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Preserve the Arctic

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been shown in climate models to reduce some impacts of global warming in the Arctic, including the loss of sea ice, permafrost thaw, and reduction of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass; SAI at high latitudes could preferentially target these impacts. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model to simulate two Arctic‐focused SAI strategies, which inject at 60°N latitude each spring with injection rates adjusted to either maintain September Arctic sea ice at 2030 levels (“Arctic Low”) or restore it to 2010 levels (“Arctic High”). Both simulations maintain or restore September sea ice to within 10% of their respective targets, reduce permafrost thaw, and increase GrIS surface mass balance by reducing runoff. Arctic High reduces these impacts more effectively than a globally focused SAI strategy that injects similar quantities of SO 2 at lower latitudes. However, Arctic‐focused SAI is not merely a “reset button” for the Arctic climate, but brings about a novel climate state, including changes to the seasonal cycles of Northern Hemisphere temperature and sea ice and less high‐latitude carbon uptake relative to SSP2‐4.5. Additionally, while Arctic‐focused SAI produces the most cooling near the pole, its effects are not confined to the Arctic, including detectable cooling throughout most of the northern hemisphere for both simulations, increased mid‐latitude sulfur deposition, and a southward shift of the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. For these reasons, it would be incorrect to consider Arctic‐focused SAI as “local” geoengineering, even when compared to a globally focused strategy.

Lee, Walker Raymond↗

Chapman Conference on the Hydrologic Aspects of Global Climate Change, Lake Chelan, WA, June 12-14, 1990, Selected Papers

The present conference on the hydrological aspects of global climate change discusses land-surface schemes for future climate models, modeling of the land-surface boundary in climate models as a composite of independent vegetation, a land-surface hydrology parameterizaton with subgrid variability for general circulation models, and conceptual aspects of a statistical-dynamical approach to represent landscape subgrid-scale heterogeneities in atmospheric models. Attention is given to the impact of global warming on river runoff, the influence of atmospheric moisture transport on the fresh water balance of the Atlantic drainage basin, a comparison of observations and model simulations of tropospheric water vapor, and the use of weather types to disaggregate the prediction of general circulation models. Topics addressed include the potential response of an Arctic watershed during a period of global warming and the sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates to climate variability and change.

Lettenmaier, Dennis P.↗

Experimental warming and drying increase older carbon contributions to soil respiration in lowland tropical forests

Tropical forests account for over 50% of the global terrestrial carbon sink, but climate change threatens to alter the carbon balance of these ecosystems. We show that warming and drying of tropical forest soils may increase soil carbon vulnerability, by increasing degradation of older carbon. In situ whole-profile heating by 4 °C and 50% throughfall exclusion each increased the average radiocarbon age of soil CO 2 efflux by ~2–3 years, but the mechanisms underlying this shift differed. Warming accelerated decomposition of older carbon as increased CO 2 emissions depleted newer carbon. Drying suppressed decomposition of newer carbon inputs and decreased soil CO 2 emissions, thereby increasing contributions of older carbon to CO 2 efflux. These findings imply that both warming and drying, by accelerating the loss of older soil carbon or reducing the incorporation of fresh carbon inputs, will exacerbate soil carbon losses and negatively impact carbon storage in tropical forests under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of 5 years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anticorrelation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice!free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7% and 10%, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5% 7%. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Because longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

Palm, Stephen P.↗

The Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Extent on Polar Cloud Fraction and Vertical Structure and Implications for Regional Climate

Recent satellite lidar measurements of cloud properties spanning a period of five years are used to examine a possible connection between Arctic sea ice amount and polar cloud fraction and vertical distribution. We find an anti-correlation between sea ice extent and cloud fraction with maximum cloudiness occurring over areas with little or no sea ice. We also find that over ice free regions, there is greater low cloud frequency and average optical depth. Most of the optical depth increase is due to the presence of geometrically thicker clouds over water. In addition, our analysis indicates that over the last 5 years, October and March average polar cloud fraction has increased by about 7 and 10 percent, respectively, as year average sea ice extent has decreased by 5 to 7 percent. The observed cloud changes are likely due to a number of effects including, but not limited to, the observed decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. Increasing cloud amount and changes in vertical distribution and optical properties have the potential to affect the radiative balance of the Arctic region by decreasing both the upwelling terrestrial longwave radiation and the downward shortwave solar radiation. Since longwave radiation dominates in the long polar winter, the overall effect of increasing low cloud cover is likely a warming of the Arctic and thus a positive climate feedback, possibly accelerating the melting of Arctic sea ice.

Palm, Stephen P.↗

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (−6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Precipitation↗

More high-impact atmospheric river-induced extreme precipitation events under warming in a high-resolution model

Extreme precipitation events, as occurred in Europe 2021, or western North America 2023, with an intensity of 75 mm/day or 100 mm/day, respectively, exert a catastrophic impact. Lower-resolution (~100 km) climate models cannot simulate the intensity, nor their response to greenhouse warming. Using a high-resolution (~25 km) model capable of simulating such events, here we show that frequency-weighted area of such events over western Europe and the west coast of North America likely expands by more than 80% under an approximately 4°C of global warming from the historical levels. Along the west coasts of Europe and North America, area impacted by atmospheric rivers-induced extreme precipitation events is projected to double, driven by intensified landfalling atmospheric rivers. Thermodynamic processes drive the increase, whereas dynamic processes reduce the intensity over western Europe but enhance it along the west coast of North America. Here our findings provide policy-relevant information for climate adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LGM Paleoclimate Constraints Inform Cloud Parameterizations and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulates a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) and a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that is substantially colder than proxy temperatures. In this study, we examine the role of cloud parameterizations in simulating the LGM cooling in CESM2. Through substituting different versions of cloud schemes in the atmosphere model, we attribute the excessive LGM cooling to the new CESM2 schemes of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation. Further exploration suggests that removing an inappropriate limiter on cloud ice number (NoNimax) and decreasing the time-step size (substepping) in cloud microphysics largely eliminate the excessive LGM cooling. NoNimax produces a more physically consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds, which leads to an increase in cloud ice content and a weaker shortwave cloud feedback over mid-to-high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Microphysical substepping further weakens the shortwave cloud feedback. Based on NoNimax and microphysical substepping, we have developed a paleoclimate-calibrated CESM2 (PaleoCalibr), which simulates well the observed twentieth century warming and spatial characteristics of key cloud and climate variables. PaleoCalibr has a lower ECS (∼4°C) and a 20% weaker aerosol-cloud interaction than CESM2. PaleoCalibr represents a physically more consistent treatment of cloud microphysics than CESM2 and is a valuable tool in climate change studies, especially when a large climate forcing is involved. Our study highlights the unique value of paleoclimate constraints in informing the cloud parameterizations and ultimately the future climate projection.

equilibrium climate sensitivity↗