SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “climate dynamics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,171 records · Page 65

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2016

Reevaluating Suitability Estimates Based on Dynamics of Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, and sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation and market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development of new crop varieties, irrigation, and road networks, as well as changing global demand for agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent assessments of cropland suitability to spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001 2012. We found that areas of recent cropland expansion identified using satellite data were generally designated as low to moderate suitability for rainfed crop production. Our analysis highlighted the abrupt nature of suitability boundaries, rather than smooth gradients of agricultural potential, with little additional cropland expansion beyond the extent of the flattest areas (0-2% slope). Satellite-based estimates of the interannual variability in the use of existing crop areas also provided an alternate means to assess suitability. On average, cropland areas in the Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) than croplands in the Amazon region of northern Mato Grosso (74%). Areas of more recent expansion had lower utilization than croplands established before 2002, providing empirical evidence for lower suitability or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture soya rotations) for lands undergoing more recent land use transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes a large area of potentially available cropland (PAC)without further expansion, within the management limits imposed for pest management and fallow cycles. Using two key constraints on future cropland expansion, slope and restrictions on further deforestation of Amazon or Cerrado vegetation, we found little available flat land for further legal expansion of crop production in Mato Grosso. Dynamics of cropland expansion from more than a decade of satellite observations indicated narrow ranges of suitability criteria, restricting PAC under current policy conditions, and emphasizing the advantages of field-scale information to assess suitability and utilization.

Morton, Douglas C.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Martian Dust Cycle: Observations and Modeling

The dust cycle is critically important for Mars' current climate system. Suspended atmospheric dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, and thus greatly influences the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Evidence for the presence of dust in the Martian atmosphere can be traced back to yellow clouds telescopically observed as early as the early 19th century. The Mariner 9 orbiter arrived at Mars in November of 1971 to find a planet completely enshrouded in airborne dust. Since that time, the exchange of dust between the planet's surface and atmosphere and the role of airborne dust on Mars' weather and climate has been studied using observations and numerical models. The goal of this talk is to give an overview of the observations and to discuss the successes and challenges associated with modeling the dust cycle. Dust raising events on Mars range in size from meters to hundreds of kilometers. During some years, regional storms merge to produce hemispheric or planet encircling dust clouds that obscure the surface and raise atmospheric temperatures by tens of kelvin. The interannual variability of planet encircling dust storms is poorly understood. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. A low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading are generally observed: one peak occurs before northern winter solstice and one peak occurs after northern winter solstice. Numerical modeling studies attempting to interactively simulate the Martian dust cycle with general circulation models (GCMs) include the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Two dust lifting processes are commonly represented in these models: wind-stress lifting (i.e., saltation) and dust devil lifting. Although the predicted patterns of dust lifting and atmospheric dust loading from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are many notable differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. For example, it is common for models to predict one peak in global dust loading near northern winter solstice due to excessive dust lifting in the Hellas basin at this season. Additionally, it is difficult for models to realistically capture the observed interannual variability in global dust storms. New avenues of dust cycle modeling research include exploring the effects of finite surface dust reservoirs and the effects of coupling the dust and water cycles on the predicted dust cycle.

Kahre, Melinda A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate change is intensifying rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in West Africa

Soil erosion is a critical environmental challenge with significant implications for agriculture, water quality, and ecosystem stability. Understanding its dynamics is essential for sustainable environmental management and societal welfare. Here, we analyze rainfall erosivity and erosion patterns across West Africa (WAF) during the historical (1982–2014), near future (2028–2060), and far future (2068–2100) periods under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 370 and 585). Using bias-corrected-downscaled (BCD) climate models validated against reference data, we ensure an accurate representation of rainfall—a key driver of erosivity (R-factor) and soil erosion. We compare Renard's approach and the Modified Fournier Index (MFI) to calculate the R-factor and note a strong correlation. However, Renard's method shows slightly lower accuracy in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and The Gambia, likely due to its inability to capture high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events. In contrast, the MFI, utilizing continuous rain gauge data, proves more reliable for these regions. We also attribute fluctuations in erosivity, such as those seen during the 2003 West Africa floods, to synoptic weather patterns influenced by multiple climate processes. Furthermore, our analysis reveals regions where future soil erosion could exceed 20 t/ha/yr due to climate change. Under the SSP 370 scenario, soil erosion in WAF is projected to rise by 14.84 % in the near future and 18.65 % in the far future, increasing further under SSP 585 to 19.86 % and 23.49 %, respectively. The most severe increases are expected in Benin and Nigeria, with Nigeria potentially facing a 66.41 % rise in erosion by the far future under SSP 585. These findings highlight the region's exposure to intensified climatic conditions and underscore the urgent need for targeted soil management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate erosion's ecological and socioeconomic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2024

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Atmospheric Rivers: A Modeling Perspective

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a crucial role in the poleward transport of water vapor, and the AR-associated precipitation is a critical component of global water supplies, making it critical that we understand how ARs may change in the future. To approach this issue, integrations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model ModelE version 2.1 (GISSE2.1) are employed. Multiple configurations of the model simulating different climates are analyzed: (1) the last-glacial maximum; (2) present day; (3) the end of the 21st century. The thermodynamic and dynamic components of changes to AR frequency are analyzed using a decomposition method. This method utilizes differences in distinct AR seasonal climatology frequencies derived from various vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) thresholds to resolve AR frequency into its components. Global mean state changes in poleward AR frequency for different climates are dominated by precipitable water vapor (PWV) changes. A set of idealized cold and warm climates in which present day sea surface temperatures are uniformly changed are considered for a targeted analysis of the south Pacific Ocean basin. For this analysis, frequency and distribution of AR events in the model runs are analyzed by comparing them to changes in the jet stream as well as the Eulerian storm tracks and low-level baroclinicity. Latitudinal shifts in the ARs in the south Pacific Ocean basin using our integrations are not as tightly coupled to these two storm-related climatological metrics in the midlatitudes but fare better on the poleward side of the storm tracks.

Atmospheric rivers↗

DOE OSTI2023

NETL Direct Air Capture Center

In 2022 Congress authorized the $25M National Energy Technology Laboratory Direct Air Capture Center. The facility will be specifically targeted at accelerating the commercialization of technologies beyond the conceptual stage which have not yet reached full pilot-scale (TRL 3 to 6). The ability to operate over a wide range of conditions will help the developers to understand how their technologies respond in different climates, from summer to winter and arid to tropical. NETL recognizes that DAC technology is still early in its evolution, and a wide variety of highly varied technologies are being explored. The Center will be designed with substantial flexibility to accommodate the rapidly evolving technological landscape. Testing systems at three scales will be included: lab-scale systems designed to examine the long-term stability of DAC materials, bench-scale module testing systems capable of probing flow dynamics, and small pilot-scale skid rooms able to test prototype DAC units under a wide variety of climate conditions. The NETL DAC Center will feature dedicated engineering, technician, scientific and logistical support for experimental system design, installation, operation of experiments, and interpretation of results for projects including but not limited to kinetics of absorption/desorption, thermal duty, and post-mortem elemental characterization to understand degradation. The NETL DAC Center projects will also have access to dedicated process modeling and analysis to evaluate the technoeconomic aspects of new technologies. NETL’s Systems Engineering and Analysis (SEA) team, the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI), and the Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) are all potential collaborators with NETL’s testing partners from industry, academia, and other research institutions. NETL also has world class capabilities in device scale modeling (i.e., MFIX) that will be available to help design more efficient contactors and optimize unique internal configurations that can be realized by advanced manufacturing. The talk will cover the design and capabilities of the center, the planned availability, and feedback will be solicited from the audience on DAC testing needs.

Luebke, David↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating commercialization of direct air capture technology

Luebke, David↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Preliminary Formation Flying Orbit Dynamics Analysis for Leonardo-BRDF

Leonardo-BRDF is a new NASA mission concept proposed to allow the investigation of radiative transfer and its effect on the Earth's climate and atmospheric phenomenon. Enabled by the recent developments in small-satellite and formation flying technology, the mission is envisioned to be composed of an array of spacecraft in carefully designed orbits. The different perspectives provided by a distributed array of spacecraft offer a unique advantage to study the Earth's albedo. This paper presents the flight dynamics analysis performed in the context of the Leonardo-BRDF science requirements. First, the albedo integral is investigated and the effect of viewing geometry on science return is studied. The method used in this paper, based on Gauss quadrature, provides the optimal formation geometry to ensure that the value of the integral is accurately approximated. An orbit design approach is presented to achieve specific relative orbit geometries while simultaneously satisfying orbit dynamics constraints to reduce formation-keeping fuel expenditure. The relative geometry afforded by the design is discussed in terms of mission requirements. An optimal Lambert initialization scheme is presented with the required DeltaV to distribute all spacecraft from a common parking orbit into their appropriate orbits in the formation. Finally, formation-keeping strategies are developed and the associated DeltaV's are calculated to maintain the formation in the presence of perturbations.

Hughes, Steven P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Response of extreme precipitation to uniform surface warming in quasi-global aquaplanet simulations at high resolution

Projections of precipitation extremes in simulations with global climate models are very uncertain in the tropics, in part because of the use of parameterizations of deep convection and model deficiencies in simulating convective organization. Here, we analyse precipitation extremes in high-resolution simulations that are run without a convective parameterization on a quasi-global aquaplanet. The frequency distributions of precipitation rates and precipitation cluster sizes in the tropics of a control simulation are similar to the observed distributions. In response to climate warming, 3 h precipitation extremes increase at rates of up to 9 % K - 1 in the tropics because of a combination of positive thermodynamic and dynamic contributions. The dynamic contribution at different latitudes is connected to the vertical structure of warming using a moist static stability. When the precipitation rates are first averaged to a daily timescale and coarse-grained to a typical global climate-model resolution prior to calculating the precipitation extremes, the response of the precipitation extremes to warming becomes more similar to what was found previously in coarse-resolution aquaplanet studies. However, the simulations studied here do not exhibit the high rates of increase of tropical precipitation extremes found in projections with some global climate models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonization Scenarios in the United States: Comparing Biofuels Growth in Two Models - GCAM and BSM

Scenarios for deep decarbonization rely on biomass for biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts, often including negative emissions via carbon capture and storage or utilization. Despite the prominence of biomass in many deep decarbonization pathways, critical questions remain about biomass allocation, effects of transportation electrification, the pace of growth, and implications for agriculture and land use. We address these questions through a unique comparison of carbon pricing effects on the growth of biomass utilization and its effects on land use in the United States by comparing results from a multisectoral integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model [GCAM], with results from a biomass-to-biofuels system dynamics model, the Biomass Scenario Model [BSM]. We contribute to model comparison efforts by analyzing the biomass deployment needed for a scenario consistent with a "Middle of the Road" Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP2] and a representative concentration pathway of 2.6 W/m2. The GCAM scenarios solve for global equilibrium conditions that are consistent with this pathway, including demands for biomass across all economic sectors and representing bioenergy with carbon capture and storage as a technology option. The BSM scenarios assess those biomass and biofuel results for the United States and identify challenges associated with that pace and amount of expansion. In the scenario analysis, we harmonize key factors such as carbon price trajectory, domestic ethanol fuel demand, ethanol blending, and arable land availability, and vary them in both models. In GCAM, we vary the carbon price, transportation electrification, ethanol blending constraints, and arable land availability inputs and the value of the carbon in land; in BSM, in addition to directly inputting certain GCAM results, we vary the maximum rate of biorefinery construction, flexibility of feedstock types across conversion processes, and policy incentives such as tax credits and renewable identification number payments. The selected carbon price trajectory results in a rapid increase in biofuel production in the United States, reaching about 9.4 EJ/year in 2060 in the highest scenario analyzed in GCAM. Results differ between the two models in timing and ultimate quantity of biomass and biofuel production. GCAM biofuel quantities generally exceed BSM amounts because CCS is applied to biofuel pathways in GCAM, and because of differences in capacity expansion and related dynamics of land allocation, biomass production, and price dynamics. These dynamics include rapid biorefinery capacity expansion in high demand cases. To satisfy this biomass demand, GCAM rapidly equilibrates land allocation, but the BSM limits the rate at which this re-allocation can occur. A further contrast with the equilibrium approach in GCAM is that the BSM represents a delay between planting and harvesting woody biomass resources. As a result of these model contrasts, feedstock costs in BSM increase more than in GCAM, and the absence of CCS in the BSM also reduces the relative economic attractiveness of biofuels production. The bottlenecks, lags, and price increases also lead to potential for volatility in feedstock price and land allocation to biomass in the BSM. GCAM has more biomass production than BSM in all scenarios, partly because of the broader, economy-wide coverage of GCAM, in contrast to BSM's exclusive focus on biofuels. In both models, trends like those of biofuels production were observed for biomass production: minimal growth without a carbon price and policy incentives, and increases with a carbon price, particularly with carbon capture and storage, because the inputs assume that biopower and biofuels decrease greenhouse gas emissions. In high policy scenarios, biomass demand is high, and the consequent high biomass prices due to the land re-allocation bottleneck in the BSM limit biofuel production even if the biorefinery capacity is expanded. However, because biomass prices do not increase as much in the low policy scenario, growth is slower and the land-reallocation bottleneck no longer dominates, such that the effect of increased capacity can be seen. Across both the models, a change in assumptions from less to more land availability increases biofuel production in both GCAM and BSM, as the upward pressure on feedstock price and volatility are both reduced.

biofuels↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Will Increase Biomass Proportion of Global Forest Carbon Stocks Under an SSP5–8.5 Climate Trajectory

Abstract A large amount of carbon is stored in global forests. However, the fraction of carbon stored as plant biomass versus soil organic carbon (SOC) varies among forest types, and potential changes over the 21st century are uncertain. Here, we used extensive data derived from inventories and remote sensing and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to examine the current and 21st century dynamics in the proportion of biomass and SOC across global forests. We found that precipitation, elevation, soil, and wildfire were the primary controls of these differences in carbon pools. Under the SSP5–8.5 climate scenario, CMIP6 models project that the ratio of biomass to ecosystem carbon in global forests will increase across the 21st century, with the largest increases in boreal forests (95 ± 37%) compared to moist tropical forests (16 ± 15%). Changes in forest carbon pools resulting in greater biomass fraction will affect disturbance, and ecosystem carbon and energy balances, all of which interact with the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2024

NPCC4: Tail Risk, Climate Drivers of Extreme Heat, and New Methods for Extreme Event Projections

We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the “hot models” associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.

NPCC4↗

NASA NTRS2019

How Do UTLS Jet and Tropopause Dynamics Influence Ozone Variability? Investigations Supporting the SPARC OCTAV-UTLS Activity

Understanding changes in UTLS ozone is exceptionally challenging because of large spatial and temporal variability and because of the difficulty of satellite measurements in the UTLS. It is also exceptionally important: for example, to understand climate impacts of radiatively active substances and to understand physical and biological effects of pollution transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Multi-decadal global observations of UTLS ozone are now available from numerous satellite platforms, as well as local and regional observations from aircraft, balloons, and lidar. The upper tropospheric (UT) jets and tropopauses are important drivers of composition variability in the UTLS, acting as transport barriers and controlling STE and long-range transport. We report here on investigations of relationships between extratropical UTLS ozone variability and dynamical diagnostics of mixing / transport barriers, Rossby Wave breaking, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. We will view these relationships in the context of ozone mapped into dynamical coordinates with respect to the UTLS jets and / or the tropopause. This work will help provide direction for analyses within the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS (OCTAV-UTLS) activity, which aims to use dynamical coordinate mapping to help detect and attribute observed UTLS composition trends, and to project future data needs to better quantify those trends. The work we report on here will focus on satellite ozone observations (primarily from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, additionally from ACE-FTS and OSIRIS) and assimilated ozone and dynamical fields (from multiple reanalyses); we will also provide some examples of comparisons with aircraft and balloon observations.

Manney, Gloria L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming

Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence‐based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5‐8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science‐based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

land use change↗

DOE OSTI2025

Photoselective isotope fractionation dynamics of N 2 with cosmo and atmospheric chemistry perspectives

Stable isotope ratio measurements provide valuable insights into a broad range of natural processes, from planetary atmospheres and climate to interstellar chemistry. Nitrogen, which has two stable isotopes, exhibits varying isotope ratios across the solar system. To model these observations, the isotope fraction as a function of energy is essential. At the Advanced Light Source (ALS), we measured the photodissociation of molecular nitrogen (N 2 ) with vacuum UV photons where a single photon is sufficiently energetic to dissociate the strong bond. The nitrogen atoms produced are scavenged with H 2 to form ammonia, whose isotopic makeup is determined. Blending the experiments with dynamical computations that include the shielding of light, we examine the isotopic composition and electronic atomic states produced. The measured photodissociation of N 2 at a natural isotopic composition with a frequency broad light beam exceptionally strongly favors the formation of the heavier nitrogen isotope, 15 N. Computations concur and suggest that the maximum in the quantum yield reflects significant variations in the specific electronic quantum states of the product N atoms that have quite different reactivities. Our quantum computations show that at similar energies, photodissociation of 14 N 14 N and 15 N 14 N can lead to different product channels. The computed dynamics include extensive state-selective spin–orbit and nonadiabatic couplings affecting the light absorption and dissociation pathways that proceed via the triplet manifold of states. Our results are relevant for future exploration missions, both in situ and sample-return and for other molecules such as O 2 and CO.

Komarova, Ksenia [Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem (Israe↗

DOE OSTI2022

Interactions between molecular-scale processes and hyporheic exchange for understanding Fe-S-C cycling in riparian wetlands (Final Report)

Wetlands represent some of the most productive ecosystems on the planet and critically influence global environmental health. Specifically, wetlands promote water quality by transforming nutrients and organic compounds and sequestering metals and contaminants. Riparian wetland hyporheic zones, where toxic surface water and anoxic groundwater mix, exhibit dynamic conditions that drive steep redox gradients and promote hotspots of diverse and fluctuating microbial activity. Changes in climate, water quality, and water quantity can disturb hydrologic flow and biogeochemical processing in these environments. Understanding how sulfate loading, impacted by hydrologic flux and anthropogenic inputs, influences iron and carbon cycling in wetlands will be crucial for predicting water quality issues driven by iron mineral precipitation and sorption, such as the release of heavy metals and other toxic elements. We used a fully integrated multi-scale and multi-method approach to develop a mechanistic understanding of how hydrologic flow influences coupled iron and sulfur cycles in riparian wetlands. This entailed hydrological, geochemical, and microbial observations at two locations: an anthropogenic sulfate-impacted riparian wetland in northern Minnesota, and a low-sulfate Fe-rich riparian wetland in Tims Branch at the Savannah River Site (SRS). These sites were characterized by hydrologically dynamic conditions where the stream and wetland systems oscillated between gaining (upward flow) and losing (downward flow) conditions that recharged the system occasionally with oxidants that fueled a variety of biogeochemical reactions. Aqueous geochemical measurements of surface water, groundwater, and porewater samples were made alongside solid-phase geochemical analyses of sediment gravity cores. Bulk X-ray absorption spectroscopy at the Advanced Photon Source (APS; Argonne) interrogated the speciation and distribution of Fe and S mineral phases of the sediments. Interestingly, it was discovered that, despite strongly reducing conditions, Fe(III) compounds and a variety of intermediate valence S compounds were stable in the subsurface. Indeed, compounds like thiosulfate, S(0), and intermediate valence organosulfur compounds were more prevalent than FeS and pyrite. The composition of the sediments did change with changes in hydrologic flow, showing their reactivity in changing redox conditions. The abundance of these intermediate S compounds was likely formed as a result of anaerobic oxidation by aqueous and solid-phase Fe(III) compounds, fueling a cryptic S cycle that is driving the breakdown of organic matter in the hyporheic zone. Microbiome surveys showed a core community that seemed stable across the landscape, but changed with increasing depth into the sediment. The community composition did not seem to change dramatically with changes in season or hydrologic flow, except for some organisms that have the potential to contribute to S cycling. More work is needed to confirm their functional activity. These fine process-scale analyses were placed within a dynamic field context using physical flow parameters from surface water and groundwater level measurements. These data helped shed light on sulfur-driven biogeochemical processes in hydrologically dynamic riparian wetlands, addressing a gap in our understanding about the impacts of pollution and other anthropogenic changes on ecologically sensitive environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Environmental Variation and Cohort Effects in an Antarctic Predator

Understanding the potential influence of environmental variation experienced by animals during early stages of development on their subsequent demographic performance can contribute to our understanding of population processes and aid in predicting impacts of global climate change on ecosystem functioning. Using data from 4,178 tagged female Weddell seal pups born into 20 different cohorts, and 30 years of observations of the tagged seals, we evaluated the hypothesis that environmental conditions experienced by young seals, either indirectly through maternal effects and/or directly during the initial period of juvenile nutritional independence, have long-term effects on individual demographic performance. We documented an approximately 3-fold difference in the proportion of each cohort that returned to the pupping colonies and produced a pup within the first 10 years after birth. We found only weak evidence for a correlation between annual environmental conditions during the juvenile-independence period and cohort recruitment probability. Instead, the data strongly supported an association between cohort recruitment probability and the regional extent of sea ice experienced by the mother during the winter the pup was in utero. We suggest that inter-annual variation in winter sea-ice extent influences the foraging success of pregnant seals by moderating the regional abundance of competing predators that cannot occupy areas of consolidated sea ice, and by directly influencing the abundance of mid-trophic prey species that are sea-ice obligates. We hypothesize that this environmentally-induced variation in maternal nutrition dictates the extent of maternal energetic investment in offspring, resulting in cohort variation in mean size of pups at weaning which, in turn, contributes to an individual?s phenotype and its ultimate fitness. These linkages between sea ice and trophic dynamics, combined with demonstrated and predicted changes in the duration and extent of sea ice associated with climate change, suggest significant alterations in Antarctic marine ecosystems in the future.

Garrott, Robert A.↗