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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

A novel approach to the bias-variance problem in bump hunting

This study explores various data-driven methods for performing background-model selection, and for assigning uncertainty on the signal-strength estimator that arises due to the choice of background model. The performance of these methods is evaluated in the context of several realistic example problems. Furthermore, a novel strategy is proposed that greatly simplifies the process of performing a bump hunt when little is assumed to be known about the background. This new approach is shown to greatly reduce the potential bias in the signal-strength estimator, without degrading the sensitivity by increasing the variance, and to produce confidence intervals with valid coverage properties.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Reducing model bias in a deep learning classifier using domain adversarial neural networks in the MINERvA experiment

We present a simulation-based study using deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) to identify neutrino interaction vertices in the MINERvA passive targets region, and illustrate the application of domain adversarial neural networks (DANNs) in this context. DANNs are designed to be trained in one domain (simulated data) but tested in a second domain (physics data) and utilize unlabeled data from the second domain so that during training only features which are unable to discriminate between the domains are promoted. MINERvA is a neutrino-nucleus scattering experiment using the NuMI beamline at Fermilab. A-dependent cross sections are an important part of the physics program, and these measurements require vertex finding in complicated events. To illustrate the impact of the DANN we used a modified set of simulation in place of physics data during the training of the DANN and then used the label of the modified simulation during the evaluation of the DANN. In conclusion, we find that deep learning based methods offer significant advantages over our prior track-based reconstruction for the task of vertex finding, and that DANNs are able to improve the performance of deep networks by leveraging available unlabeled data and by mitigating network performance degradation rooted in biases in the physics models used for training.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

MEASUREMENT OF THE HALO BIAS FROM STACKED SHEAR PROFILES OF GALAXY CLUSTERS

We present observational evidence of the two-halo term in the stacked shear profile of a sample of ∼1200 optically selected galaxy clusters based on imaging data and the public shear catalog from the CFHTLenS. We find that the halo bias, a measure of the correlated distribution of matter around galaxy clusters, has amplitude and correlation with galaxy cluster mass in very good agreement with the predictions based on the LCDM standard cosmological model. The mass-concentration relation is flat but higher than theoretical predictions. We also confirm the close scaling relation between the optical richness of galaxy clusters and their mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of data collection bias of third molar stages of mineralisation for age estimation in the living

Abstract Age assessment of the living is a fundamental procedure in the process of human identification, in order to guarantee fair treatment of individuals, which has ethical, civil, legal, and medical repercussions. The careful selection of the appropriate methods requires evaluation of several parameters: accuracy, precision of the method, as well as its reproducibility. The approach proposed by Mincer et al. adapted from Demirjian et al. exploring third molar mineralisation, is one of the most frequently considered for age estimation of the living. Thus, this work aims to assess potential bias in the data collection when applying the classification stages for dental mineralisation adapted by Mincer et al. A total of 102 orthopantomographs, of clinical origin, belonging to individuals aged between 12 and 25 years ($ \bar{\textit x} $ = 20.12 years, SD = 3.49 years; 65 females, 37 males, all of Portuguese nationality) were included and a retrospective analysis performed by five observers with different levels of experience (high, average, and basic). The performance and agreement between five observers were evaluated using Weighted Cohen’s Kappa and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient. To access the influence of impaction on third molar classification, variables were tested using ordinal logistic regression Generalised Linear Model. It was observed that there were variations in the number of teeth identified among the observers, but the agreement levels ranged from moderate to substantial (0.4–0.8). Upon closer examination of the results, it was observed that although there were discernible differences between highly experienced observers and those with less experience, the gap was not as significant as initially hypothesised, and a greater disparity between the classifications of the upper (0.24–0.49) and lower third molars (>0.55) was observed. When bone superimposition is present, the classification process is not significantly influenced; however, variation in teeth angulation affects the assessment. The results suggest that with an efficient preparation, the level of experience as a factor can be overcome. Mincer and colleague's classification system can be replicated with ease and consistency, even though the classification of upper and lower third molars presents distinct challenges.

de Oliveira Santos, Inês (ORCID:0000000267324347)↗

Galaxy assembly bias and large-scale distribution: a comparison between IllustrisTNG and a semi-analytic model

In this work, we compare large scale structure observables for stellar mass selected samples at z = 0, as predicted by two galaxy models, the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the Santa-Cruz semi-analytic model (SC-SAM). Although both models have been independently calibrated to match observations, rather than each other, we find good agreement between the two models for two-point clustering and galaxy assembly bias signatures. The models also show a qualitatively similar response of occupancy and clustering to secondary halo parameters other than mass, such as formation history and concentration, although with some quantitative differences. Thus, our results demonstrate that the galaxy–halo relationships in SC-SAM and TNG are quite similar to first order. However, we also find areas in which the models differ. For example, we note a strong correlation between halo gas content and environment in TNG, which is lacking in the SC-SAM, as well as differences in the occupancy predictions for low-mass haloes. Moreover, we show that higher order statistics, such as cumulants of the density field, help us to accurately describe the galaxy distribution and discriminate between models that show degenerate behaviour for two-point statistics. Our results suggest that SAMs are a promising cost-effective and intuitive method for generating mock catalogues for next generation cosmological surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The PDF perspective on the tracer-matter connection: Lagrangian bias and non-Poissonian shot noise

ABSTRACT We study the connection of matter density and its tracers from the probability density function (PDF) perspective. One aspect of this connection is the conditional expectation value 〈δtracer|δm〉 when averaging both tracer and matter density over some scale. We present a new way to incorporate a Lagrangian bias expansion of this expectation value into standard frameworks for modelling the PDF of density fluctuations and counts-in-cells statistics. Using N-body simulations and mock galaxy catalogues we confirm the accuracy of this expansion and compare it to the more commonly used Eulerian parametrization. For haloes hosting typical luminous red galaxies, the Lagrangian model provides a significantly better description of 〈δtracer|δm〉 at second order in perturbations. A second aspect of the matter-tracer connection is shot-noise, i.e. the scatter of tracer density around 〈δtracer|δm〉. It is well known that this noise can be significantly non-Poissonian and we validate the performance of a more general, two-parameter shot-noise model for different tracers and simulations. Both parts of our analysis are meant to pave the way for forthcoming applications to survey data.

Friedrich, Oliver↗

Bias on tensor-to-scalar ratio inference with estimated covariance matrices

ABSTRACT We investigate simulation-based bandpower covariance matrices commonly used in cosmological parameter inferences such as the estimation of the tensor-to-scalar ratio r. We find that upper limits on r can be biased low by tens of per cent. The underestimation of the upper limit is most severe when the number of simulation realizations is similar to the number of observables. Convergence of the covariance-matrix estimation can require a number of simulations an order of magnitude larger than the number of observables, which could mean $\mathcal {O}(10\ 000)$ simulations. This is found to be caused by an additional scatter in the posterior probability of r due to Monte Carlo noise in the estimated bandpower covariance matrix, in particular, by spurious non-zero off-diagonal elements. We show that matrix conditioning can be a viable mitigation strategy in the case that legitimate covariance assumptions can be made.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The XMM Cluster Survey analysis of the SDSS DR8 redMaPPer catalogue: implications for scatter, selection bias, and isotropy in cluster scaling relations

ABSTRACT In this paper, we present the X-ray analysis of Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR8 redMaPPer (SDSSRM) clusters using data products from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). In total, 1189 SDSSRM clusters fall within the XMM–Newton footprint. This has yielded 456 confirmed detections accompanied by X-ray luminosity (LX) measurements. Of these clusters, 381 have an associated X-ray temperature measurement (TX). This represents one of the largest samples of coherently derived cluster TX values to date. Our analysis of the X-ray observable to richness scaling relations has demonstrated that scatter in the TX–λ relation is roughly a third of that in the LX–λ relation, and that the LX–λ scatter is intrinsic, i.e. will not be significantly reduced with larger sample sizes. Analysis of the scaling relation between LX and TX has shown that the fits are sensitive to the selection method of the sample, i.e. whether the sample is made up of clusters detected ‘serendipitously’ compared to those deliberately targeted by XMM. These differences are also seen in the LX–λ relation and, to a lesser extent, in the TX–λ relation. Exclusion of the emission from the cluster core does not make a significant impact on the findings. A combination of selection biases is a likely, but yet unproven, reason for these differences. Finally, we have also used our data to probe recent claims of anisotropy in the LX–TX relation across the sky. We find no evidence of anistropy, but stress this may be masked in our analysis by the incomplete declination coverage of the SDSS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quashing a suspected selection bias in galaxy samples having dynamically measured supermassive black holes

Local early-type galaxies (ETGs) with directly measured black hole masses, M bh , have been reported to represent a biased sample relative to the ETG population at large. Such galaxies with Spitzer Space Telescope imaging have been purported to possess velocity dispersions, σ, at least ∼0.1 dex larger for a given galaxy stellar mass, M * , gal , than is typically observed among thousands of ETGs imaged by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). This apparent offset led Shankar et al. to reduce the normalisation of the observed M bh ∝ σ 5 relation by at least ∼0.5 dex to give their ‘intrinsic relations’, including σ-based modifications to the observed M bh –M * , gal relation. These modifications were based on the untested assumption that the stellar masses had been derived consistently between the two samples. Here, we provide the necessary check using galaxies common to the Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S 4 G) and the SDSS. We find that the stellar masses of galaxies with and without directly measured black hole masses had appeared offset from each other due to the use of inconsistent stellar mass-to-light ratios, Υ * , for the optical and infrared data. We briefly discuss the ‘intrinsic relations’ and why some of these will at times appear to have had partial success when applied to data based on similarly inconsistent values ofΥ * . Finally, we reiterate the importance of the υ (lower-case Υ) term, which we previously introduced into the M bh –M * relations to help avoid Υ * -related mismatches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluating cosmological biases using photometric redshifts for Type Ia Supernova cosmology with the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program

Cosmological analyses with Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) have traditionally been reliant on spectroscopy for both classifying the type of supernova and obtaining reliable redshifts to measure the distance–redshift relation. While obtaining a host-galaxy spectroscopic redshift for most SNe is feasible for small-area transient surveys, it will be too resource intensive for upcoming large-area surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will observe on the order of millions of SNe. Here, we use data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to address this problem with photometric redshifts (photo-z) inferred directly from the SN light curve in combination with Gaussian and full p(z) priors from host-galaxy photo-z estimates. Using the DES 5-yr photometrically classified SN sample, we consider several photo-z algorithms as host-galaxy photo-z priors, including the Self-Organizing Map redshifts (SOMPZ), Bayesian Photometric Redshifts (BPZ), and Directional-Neighbourhood Fitting (DNF) redshift estimates employed in the DES 3 × 2 point analyses. With detailed catalogue-level simulations of the DES 5-yr sample, we find that the simulated w can be recovered within ±0.02 when using SN+SOMPZ or DNF prior photo-z, smaller than the average statistical uncertainty for these samples of 0.03. With data, we obtain biases in w consistent with simulations within ~1σ for three of the five photo-z variants. We further evaluate how photo-z systematics interplay with photometric classification and find classification introduces a subdominant systematic component. This work lays the foundation for next-generation fully photometric SNe Ia cosmological analyses.

(cosmology:) dark energy↗

On the correspondence between barrier crossing, peak-background split and local biasing

Several, apparently distinct, formalisms exist in the literature for predicting the clustering of dark matter halos. It has been noticed on a case-by-case basis that the predictions of these different methods agree in specific examples, but there is no general proof that they are equivalent. Here, we give a simple proof of the mathematical equivalence of barrier crossing, peak-background split, and local biasing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Beyond halo mass: galactic conformity as a smoking gun of central galaxy assembly bias

Quenched central galaxies tend to reside in a preferentially quenched large-scale environment, a phenomenon that has been dubbed galactic conformity. Remarkably, this tendency persists out to scales far larger than the virial radius of the halo hosting the central. Therefore, conformity manifestly violates the widely adopted assumption that the dark matter halo mass $M_{\text{vir}}$ exclusively governs galaxy occupation statistics. This paper is the first in a series studying the implications of the observed conformity signal for the galaxy–dark matter connection. Here, we show that recent measurements of conformity on scales $\textit{r}$ ~ 1–5 Mpc imply that central galaxy quenching statistics cannot be correctly predicted with the knowledge of $M_{\text{vir}}$ alone. We also demonstrate that ejected (or ‘backsplash’) satellites cannot give rise to the signal. We then invoke the age matching model, which is predicated on the co-evolution of galaxies and haloes. We find that this model produces a strong signal, and that central galaxies are solely responsible. We conclude that large-scale ‘two-halo’ conformity represents a smoking gun of central galaxy assembly bias, and indicates that contemporary models of satellite quenching have systematically overestimated the influence of post-infall processes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Galaxy Cluster Mass Reconstruction Project - II. Quantifying scatter and bias using contrasting mock catalogues

Our paper is the second in a series in which we perform an extensive comparison of various galaxy-based cluster mass estimation techniques that utilize the positions, velocities and colours of galaxies. Our aim is to quantify the scatter, systematic bias and completeness of cluster masses derived from a diverse set of 25 galaxy-based methods using two contrasting mock galaxy catalogues based on a sophisticated halo occupation model and a semi-analytic model. Analysing 968 clusters, we find a wide range in the rms errors in log M200c delivered by the different methods (0.18–1.08 dex, i.e. a factor of ~1.5–12), with abundance-matching and richness methods providing the best results, irrespective of the input model assumptions. In addition, certain methods produce a significant number of catastrophic cases where the mass is under- or overestimated by a factor greater than 10. Given the steeply falling high-mass end of the cluster mass function, we recommend that richness- or abundance-matching-based methods are used in conjunction with these methods as a sanity check for studies selecting high-mass clusters. We also see a stronger correlation of the recovered to input number of galaxies for both catalogues in comparison with the group/cluster mass, however, this does not guarantee that the correct member galaxies are being selected. Finally, we did not observe significantly higher scatter for either mock galaxy catalogues. These results have implications for cosmological analyses that utilize the masses, richnesses, or abundances of clusters, which have different uncertainties when different methods are used.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Assembly bias evidence in close galaxy pairs

ABSTRACT The growth channel of massive galaxies involving mergers can be studied via close pairs as putative merger progenitors, where the stellar populations of the satellite galaxies will be eventually incorporated into the massive primaries. We extend our recent analysis of the GAMA-based sample of close pairs presented in Ferreras et al. to the general spectroscopic data set of SDSS galaxies (DR14), for which the high S/N of the data enables a detailed analysis of the differences between satellite galaxies with respect to the mass of the primary galaxy. A sample of approximately 2000 satellites of massive galaxies is carefully selected within a relatively narrow redshift range (0.07<z<0.14). Two main parameters are considered as major drivers of the star formation history of these galaxies, namely: the stellar velocity dispersion of the satellite (σ), as a proxy of ‘local’ drivers, and the ratio between the stellar mass of the satellite and the primary, μ = MSAT/MPRI, meant to serve as an indicator of environment. Consistently with the independent, GAMA-based work, we find that satellites around the most massive primaries appear older, at fixed velocity dispersion, than satellites of lower mass primaries. This trend is more marked in lower mass satellites (σ ∼ 100 km s−1), with SSP-equivalent age differences up to ∼0.5 Gyr, and can be interpreted as a one-halo assembly bias, so that satellites corresponding to smaller values of μ represent older structures, akin to fossil groups.

Ferreras, I.↗

BAM: bias assignment method to generate mock catalogues

Combining the statistics of dark matter tracers from a high-resolution cosmological N-body simulation and the dark matter density field calculated from down-sampled initial conditions using efficient structure formation solvers, we extract the halo-bias relation on a mesh of a 3$h^{-1}$ Mpc cell side resolution as a function of properties of the dark matter density field (e.g. local density, cosmic web type), automatically including stochastic, deterministic, local and non-local components. We use this information to sample the halo density field, accounting for ignored dependencies through an iterative process. By construction, our approach reaches ~1% accuracy in the majority of the k-range up to the Nyquist frequency without systematic deviations for power spectra (about $k ~ 1h$ Mpc -1 ) using either particle mesh or Lagrangian perturbation theory based solvers. When using phase-space mapping to compensate the low resolution of the approximate gravity solvers, our method reproduces the bispectra of the reference within 10% precision studying configurations tracing the quasi-non-linear regime. BAM has the potential to become a standard technique to produce mock halo and galaxy catalogues for future galaxy surveys and cosmological studies being highly accurate, efficient and parameter free.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Psychosomatic Bias in Low-dose Radiation Epidemiology: Assessing the Role of Radiophobia and Stress in Cancer Incidence

Abstract Historical assessment of radiation effects at low doses (below 0.2 Sv) are generally the result of back extrapolation from higher doses, which are known to have a linear relation between risk and dose. There are multiple counter-examples, and some literature argues that a threshold, nonlinear, or even a beneficial effect (hormeisis) can occur from radiation below these doses. The common theme found in all of these studies stems from the traditional approach of correlating disease rates to stimulus and then effectively curve-fitting the result toward zero dose. What has not been considered in general are the personal stress levels of the exposed individuals due to fear of cancer from low doses. The increased levels of cortisol due to the psychological stress from fear or depression has been shown in the literature to increase cancer probability. The extent to which low-dose exposed individuals were highly fearful or stressed from the radiation exposure would then give rise to elevated cancer based on stress rather than a fundamental radiogenic mechanism. If the population under epidemiological study is aware of a potential historical exposure (no matter how small) and has then lived under stress from fear or depression due to that exposure, the psychosomatic effects will bias the epidemiology accordingly and so should be quantified and accounted for as done with the effects of smoking. Health Phys. 129(0):000-000; 2025

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Charge lifetime improvement of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility photogun with a biased anode

GaAs photocathodes in dc high-voltage photoguns are highly susceptible to ion back-bombardment, which reduces the photocathode quantum efficiency and limits the useful operating lifetime for producing polarized electron beams. This paper demonstrates that applying a small positive bias to the photogun anode can significantly suppress ion back-bombardment and increase charge lifetime. This technique was studied extensively using the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility photogun, where highly polarized electron beams created using a strained-superlattice GaAs / GaAsP photocathode were used and charge lifetimes improved by almost a factor of 2. A new simulation code was developed to model ion production and tracking in order to better understand and explain the factors that led to the performance improvement. Results of the experiments and simulations are discussed in detail. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Instabilities of the normal state in current-biased narrow superconducting strips

We study the current-voltage characteristic of narrow superconducting strips in the gapless regime near the critical temperature in the framework of the Ginzburg-Landau model. Our focus is on its instabilities occurring at high current biases. The latter are consequences of dynamical states with periodic phase-slip events in space and time. We analyze their structure and derive the value of the reentrance current at the onset of the instability of the normal state. It is expressed in terms of the kinetic coefficient of the time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau equation and calculated numerically.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗