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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

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NASA NTRS2011

A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

Yonekura, Emmi↗

NASA NTRS2011

Calibrated Noise Measurements with Induced Receiver Gain Fluctuations

The lack of well-developed techniques for modeling changing statistical moments in our observations has stymied the application of stochastic process theory in science and engineering. These limitations were encountered when modeling the performance of radiometer calibration architectures and algorithms in the presence of non stationary receiver fluctuations. Analyses of measured signals have traditionally been limited to a single measurement series. Whereas in a radiometer that samples a set of noise references, the data collection can be treated as an ensemble set of measurements of the receiver state. Noise Assisted Data Analysis is a growing field of study with significant potential for aiding the understanding and modeling of non stationary processes. Typically, NADA entails adding noise to a signal to produce an ensemble set on which statistical analysis is performed. Alternatively as in radiometric measurements, mixing a signal with calibrated noise provides, through the calibration process, the means to detect deviations from the stationary assumption and thereby a measurement tool to characterize the signal's non stationary properties. Data sets comprised of calibrated noise measurements have been limited to those collected with naturally occurring fluctuations in the radiometer receiver. To examine the application of NADA using calibrated noise, a Receiver Gain Modulation Circuit (RGMC) was designed and built to modulate the gain of a radiometer receiver using an external signal. In 2010, an RGMC was installed and operated at the National Institute of Standards and Techniques (NIST) using their Noise Figure Radiometer (NFRad) and national standard noise references. The data collected is the first known set of calibrated noise measurements from a receiver with an externally modulated gain. As an initial step, sinusoidal and step-function signals were used to modulate the receiver gain, to evaluate the circuit characteristics and to study the performance of a variety of calibration algorithms. The receiver noise temperature and time-bandwidth product of the NFRad are calculated from the data. Statistical analysis using temporal-dependent calibration algorithms reveals that the natural occurring fluctuations in the receiver are stationary over long intervals (100s of seconds); however the receiver exhibits local non stationarity over the interval over which one set of reference measurements are collected. A variety of calibration algorithms have been applied to the data to assess algorithms' performance with the gain fluctuation signals. This presentation will describe the RGMC, experiment design and a comparative analysis of calibration algorithms.

Racette, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupling Warm Rain With an Eddy Diffusivity/Mass Flux Parameterization: 1. Model Description and Validation

A new version of the stochastic multiplume Jet Propulsion Laboratory Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (JPL-EDMF) parameterization which consistently couples the simplified Khairoutdinov and Kogan (2000), https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0229:ANCPPI>2.0.CO;2, warm phase cloud microphysical parameterization with the parameterization of cloud macrophysical and subgrid scale dynamical processes is described. The new parameterization combines the EDMF approach with an assumed shape of a joint probability density function of thermodynamic and kinematic variables which provide the basis for the computation of all parameterized processes. As far as we are aware this is the first attempt to consistently couple all of these parameterized processes in the EDMF framework. This paper is part one of a two paper series. Here, the JPL-EDMF parameterization is described and benchmark simulations of precipitating stratocumulus and cumulus convection are performed in a single-column-model framework. The parameterization results compare favorably to the reference large-eddy-simulation results. In the second part (Smalley et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002729) the JPL-EDMF parameterization is validated for a wide range of observation-based scenarios covering the continuous transition from subtropical stratocumulus to cumulus convection derived from global reanalysis, and parameterization uncertainties are studied in detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling occupancy-driven building loads for large and diversified building stocks through the use of parametric schedules

Building energy modeling provides a fundamental tool to assess the potential for energy efficiency to contribute to reducing world energy consumption and global emissions. Occupancy-related operations are a key source of uncertainty for building energy analysis, particularly for aggregated building stocks. At a district or city level, it is critical to estimate aggregated power load profiles for sizing power grid infrastructure, power plant capacity allocation, and energy efficiency measures. The stochastic nature of behavior-related operations complicates the creation of models that accurately capture building load profiles for entire building stocks. This research introduces a new methodology called parametric schedules to model occupancy-driven schedules for large and diverse building stocks. In contrast to computationally expensive methodologies proposed in the literature, our work does not use a recursive time-consuming step. Occupancy is estimated by the extrapolation of operation times directly from metered electric consumption data; occupancy-related schedules are stochastically assigned to each building model, guaranteeing diversity of operation times in the stock. Our procedure has been tested on a large, diversified data-set of 25,000 commercial buildings in Los Angeles, California. It proved to be able to adequately represent the stochastic schedules diversity of the stock and to refine the stock calibration process by 1%. This innovative approach represents a useful asset for utility companies, grid operators, urban planners, and balancing authorities, seeking to improve building stock modeling and better estimate the impact of energy conservation measures. – This work is part of a larger stock modeling tool called ComStock, which is under development by NREL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Towards Fully Secure 5G Ultra-Low Latency Communications: A Cost-Security Functions Analysis

Future components to enhance the basic, native security of 5G networks are either complex mechanisms whose impact in the requiring 5G communications are not considered, or lightweight solutions adapted to ultra-reliable low-latency communications (URLLC) but whose security properties remain under discussion. Although different 5G network slices may have different requirements, in general, both visions seem to fall short at provisioning secure URLLC in the future. In this work we address this challenge, by introducing cost-security functions as a method to evaluate the performance and adequacy of most developed and employed non-native enhanced security mechanisms in 5G networks. We categorize those new security components into different groups according to their purpose and deployment scope. We propose to analyze them in the context of existing 5G architectures using two different approaches. First, using model checking techniques, we will evaluate the probability of an attacker to be successful against each security solution. Second, using analytical models, we will analyze the impact of these security mechanisms in terms of delay, throughput consumption, and reliability. Finally, we will combine both approaches using stochastic cost-security functions and the PRISM model checker to create a global picture. Our results are first evidence of how a 5G network that covers and strengthened all security areas through enhanced, dedicated non-native mechanisms could only guarantee secure URLLC with a probability of ~55%.

5G networks↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probing Sensitivity of Discharge Characteristics to Model Selection using Uncertainty Quantification in an aprotic Li-Oxygen Battery

Currently, there are several models in the literature, such as kinetic models, microstructural models, and mass transport models that describe a Li-air battery's discharge behavior. Many of these models are calibrated and tested at low current densities and cannot be easily transferred to high current densities. Even at low current densities, there is no quantitative method for a researcher to choose a reaction kinetic model such as classical Butler-Volmer and its derivatives, and modified Marcus-Hush-Chidsey, a resistance model for lithium peroxide such as electron transport via tunneling or linear resistivity, a surface coverage model (lithium peroxide growth) such as partial coverage or full coverage, and mass transport model (discussed in Ref. [1]). Also, it is time-consuming to test different models at high current density (1C) due to a lack of well-tested models and well-calibrated model parameters. For this presentation, we will develop an analytical model, which acts as a surrogate model for a sophisticated finite element model to predict discharge time and discharge voltage. Next, we use an uncertainty quantifying technique called reduced-order stochastic optimization [2, 3] to determine the uncertainty in model parameters for rate kinetics, lithium peroxide resistivity, and parasitic resistance. Finally, a finite element simulation is performed to determine the error introduced by the surrogate model and its influence on the uncertainty in the model parameters.

M Mehta↗

DOE OSTI2022

Priors on red galaxy stochasticity from hybrid effective field theory

ABSTRACT We investigate the stochastic properties of typical red galaxy samples in a controlled numerical environment. We use halo occupation distribution (HOD) modelling to create mock realizations of three separate bright red galaxy samples consistent with data sets used for clustering and lensing analyses in modern galaxy surveys. Second-order Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT) is used as a field-level forward model to describe the full statistical distribution of these tracer samples, and their stochastic power spectra are directly measured and compared to the Poisson shot-noise prediction. While all of the galaxy samples we consider are hosted within haloes with sub-Poisson stochasticity, we observe that the galaxy samples themselves possess stochasticities that range from sub-Poisson to super-Poisson, in agreement with predictions from the halo model. As an application of our methodology, we place priors on the expected degree of non-Poisson stochasticity in cosmological analyses using such samples. We expect these priors will be useful in reducing the complexity of the full parameter space for future analyses using second-order Lagrangian bias models. More generally, the techniques outlined here present the first application of HEFT methods to characterize models of the galaxy–halo connection at the field level, revealing new connections between once-disparate modelling frameworks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bias-Variance Trade-Off in Physics-Informed Neural Networks with Randomized Smoothing for High-Dimensional PDEs

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have triggered a paradigm shift in scientific computing, leveraging mesh-free properties and robust approximation capabilities. While proving effective for low-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs), the computational cost of PINNs remains a hurdle in high-dimensional scenarios. This is particularly pronounced when computing high-order and high-dimensional derivatives in the physics-informed loss. Randomized Smoothing PINN (RS-PINN) introduces Gaussian noise for stochastic smoothing of the original neural net model, enabling the use of Monte Carlo methods for derivative approximation, which eliminates the need for costly automatic differentiation. Despite its computational efficiency, especially in the approximation of high-dimensional derivatives, RS-PINN introduces biases in both loss and gradients, negatively impacting convergence, especially when coupled with stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms. We present a comprehensive analysis of biases in RS-PINN, attributing them to the nonlinearity of the Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss as well as the intrinsic nonlinearity of the PDE itself. We propose tailored bias correction techniques, delineating their application based on the order of PDE nonlinearity. The derivation of an unbiased RS-PINN allows for a detailed examination of its advantages and disadvantages compared to the biased version. Specifically, the biased version has a lower variance and runs faster than the unbiased version, but it is less accurate due to the bias. To optimize the bias-variance trade-off, we combine the two approaches in a hybrid method that balances the rapid convergence of the biased version with the high accuracy of the unbiased version. In addition to methodological contributions, we present an enhanced implementation of RS-PINN. Extensive experiments on diverse high-dimensional PDEs, including Fokker-Planck, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB), viscous Burgers’, Allen-Cahn, and Sine-Gordon equations, illustrate the bias-variance trade-off and highlight the effectiveness of the hybrid RS-PINN. Empirical guidelines are provided for selecting biased, unbiased, or hybrid versions, depending on the dimensionality and nonlinearity of the specific PDE problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2017

Predicting Cell Death and Mutation Frequency for a Wide Spectrum of LET by Assuming DNA Break Clustering Inside Repair Domains

The high relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of high charged and energy (HZE) particles for cell death, DNA mutations and cancer remain based on experimental data. In this work, we propose that the existence of DNA repair domains is sufficient to predict both cell death and mutation frequencies for any LET by only taking into account experimental data from low-LET, offering one mechanism for RBE across LET. We hypothesize that whenever multiple DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) are generated within the same DNA repair domain, DSBs are actively regrouped for more efficient repair [1]. This hypothesis has been supported by the low-LET sublinear dose response observed at doses greater than ~1Gy for 53BP1 radiation-induced foci (RIF) reflecting increasing DSB/RIF with dose [2]. Previously, we modeled radiation-induced cell death of human breast cells by first inferring the size of these domains from the dose dependence of low-LET RIF, and by associating a lethality factor to the number of pairs of DSBs in each RIF [1]. In this work, we first integrate the new NASA computer models RITCARD (Relativistic Ion Tracks, Chromosome Aberrations, Repair, and Damage) [3] and BDSTracks (Biological Damage by Stochastic Tracks) for a more accurate microdosimetry and a better model of the nuclear organization to predict the location of DSBs. A large array of particles and energy are simulated, covering more than three orders of magnitude for LET (~1-1000 keV/Âµm). Next, we extend our previous model to predict mutation frequencies by assuming that clustered DSBs increase mutation probability, which is formalized by the mutation frequency being linearly dependent on both the number of DSBs and the number of pairs of DSBs inside individual RIF. Linear coefficients are estimated so that simulations predict accurately mutation frequencies observed in Chinese hamster cells exposed to low-LET. Keeping these coefficients unchanged, we then predict mutation frequencies induced by HZE by simulating DSBs and obtain RBEs for mutations and cell death following the expected experimental bell shape for LET dependence. We also observe an orientation effect that needs to be confirmed, showing different RBE depending on the angle of the HZE beam hitting the main axis of the cell.

Plante, Ianik↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating High-Frequency Seismograms in Realistic Earth Models to Better Understand Source Discrimination Based on Differential Magnitudes ( M L− M c)

Discriminating low-yield underground nuclear explosions from small earthquakes is a key task in monitoring nuclear test ban treaties. P/S amplitude ratios have been an effective discriminant for moderate-sized events recorded at regional distances, but it is unclear if they are as effective in discriminating small seismic events recorded at local distances (<150 km). The difference between local magnitude (M L ) and coda duration magnitude (M c ) has been proposed as a new discriminant that may complement P/S amplitude ratios at local distances. Here, in this work, we calculate high-frequency (up to ∼4 Hz) synthetic seismograms at epicentral distances of 0–30 km in realistic models of the Salt Lake basin (Utah, United States) to better understand how variations in source type and depth affect M L −M c values. The Earth models incorporate simplified 1D and deterministic 3D structures, small-wavelength stochastic velocity perturbations, and surface topography. Coda waves are enhanced for the more complicated models compared to the base 1D model, but still underpredict observed durations by about a factor of two, which results in overprediction of amplitude to duration ratios (i.e., M L −M c values) for a near-surface explosion and a 7 km deep earthquake. For both source types, the predicted M L and M c values decrease as source depth increases, and M L −M c shows only minor variation with depth; however, M L −M c is on average ∼0.5 units smaller for explosions than earthquakes. This finding may imply that M L −M c has sensitivity to source type, in addition to being a depth discriminant, but more modeling is needed given the limitations of the current study. Future modeling should incorporate higher-frequency (≳5 Hz) simulations over a larger distance range (0–150 km), where M L and M c are commonly measured, while honoring low shear velocities (<300 m/s) near the surface and sampling a wider range of earthquake and explosion source mechanisms.

Hutchings, Sean J. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City,↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resilient Observer Design for Cyber-Physical Systems with Data-Driven Measurement Pruning

Resilient observer design for Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) in the presence of adversarial false data injection attacks (FDIA) is an active area of research. The existing state-of-the-art algorithms tend to break down as more and more knowledge of the system is built into the attack model; also as the percentage of attacked nodes increases. From the view of optimization theory, the problem is often cast as a classical error correction problem for which a theoretical limit of has been established as the maximum percentage attacked nodes for which state recovery is guaranteed. Beyond this limit, the performance of -minimization based schemes, for instance, deteriorates rapidly. Similar performance degradation occurs for other types of resilient observers beyond certain percentages of attacked nodes. In order to increase the corresponding percentage of attacked nodes for which state recoveries can be guaranteed, researchers have begun to incorporate prior information into the underlying resilient observer design framework. For the most pragmatic cases, this prior information is often obtained through a data-driven machine learning process. Existing results have shown a strong positive correlation between the maximum attacked percentages that can be tolerated and the accuracy of the data-driven model. Motivated by these results, this chapter examines the case for pruning algorithms designed to improve the Positive Prediction Value (PPV) of the resulting prior information, given stochastic uncertainty characteristics of the underlying machine learning model. Theoretical quantification of the achievable improvement is given. Simulation results show that the pruning algorithm significantly increases the maximum correctable percentage of attacked nodes, even for machine learning model whose prediction power is comparable to the random flip of a coin.

Resilient Observer, Cyber-physical Systems, Data-D↗

NASA NTRS1983

Identification and stochastic control of helicopter dynamic modes

A general treatment of parameter identification and stochastic control for use on helicopter dynamic systems is presented. Rotor dynamic models, including specific applications to rotor blade flapping and the helicopter ground resonance problem are emphasized. Dynamic systems which are governed by periodic coefficients as well as constant coefficient models are addressed. The dynamic systems are modeled by linear state variable equations which are used in the identification and stochastic control formulation. The pure identification problem as well as the stochastic control problem which includes combined identification and control for dynamic systems is addressed. The stochastic control problem includes the effect of parameter uncertainty on the solution and the concept of learning and how this is affected by the control's duel effect. The identification formulation requires algorithms suitable for on line use and thus recursive identification algorithms are considered. The applications presented use the recursive extended kalman filter for parameter identification which has excellent convergence for systems without process noise.

Molusis, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A review of chemically reactive turbulent flow mixing mechanisms and a new design for a low NO(x) combustor

A review of chemically reactive flow analysis is presented. Key studies are reviewed. The approaches to modeling chemically reactive flows that are discussed are PDF, conserved PDF, conserved scalar, stochastic, and mixing length. Turbulent mixing mechanisms are also discussed and a model is formulated that could be used for optimizing non-premixed gas reacting systems. Consequently, a re-examination of the NO(x) reduction concepts for nonpremixed reactants are suggested together with two new designs for low NO(x) subsonic combustor research.

Mcbeath, Giorgio↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Physics-Based Combustion Model for Engine Knock Prediction

The objective of this project is to improve the prediction of engine knock by developing a new combustion modeling framework. Engine knock is a limiting factor to constrain the increase of fuel efficiency for spark ignition (SI) engines in most passenger cars. Efforts to increase fuel efficiency, increasing the compression ratio or downsizing, lead to the increase in the tendency of the knock occurrence. The knock is an undesired ignition of the end-gas, unburned fuel/air mixture ahead of the spark-ignited premixed flame, resulting in rapid in-cylinder pressure rises and engine damages. The combustion modeling framework developed in this project can consider turbulence-chemistry interactions during end-gas ignition, while using a reasonably detailed chemical mechanism developed for ignition and combustion reactions under engine relevant conditions, and the subtle characteristics of spark-ignited flame propagation. It is developed in the context of large eddy simulation (LES), which can capture stochastic in-cylinder processes. The developed model is incorporated into a commercial software for engine simulation, CONVERGE CFD, as a user defined function, and validated. Engine knock and knock-free experiments as well as direct numerical simulation (DNS) of end-gas ignition in homogeneous turbulence are performed to help model development and provide data sets for model validation. With further validation, the developed model is expected to advance the predictive capability for engine knock simulations and thus contribute to improving the fuel efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Physics-Based Combustion Model for Engine Knock Prediction

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive experimental design for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling of multi-disciplinary systems

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models of multi-disciplinary systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce “coupling” variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow surrogates of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined to form an integrated-surrogate that can be used to predict system-level quantities of interest at a fraction of the cost of the original model. The error in the integrated-surrogate is greedily minimized using an experimental design procedure that allocates the amount of training data, used to construct each component-surrogate, based on the contribution of those surrogates to the error of the integrated-surrogate. Here, the multi-fidelity procedure presented is a generalization of multi-index stochastic collocation that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to reduce the computational cost of constructing the integrated-surrogate. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that, for a fixed computational budget, our algorithm is able to produce surrogates that are orders of magnitude more accurate than methods that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Conditional Karhunen-Loève expansion for uncertainty quantification and active learning in partial differential equation models

We use a conditional Karhunen-Lo` eve (KL) model to quantify and reduce uncertainty in a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) problem with partially-known space-dependent coefficient, Y (x). We assume that a small number of Y (x) measurements are available and model Y (x) with a KL expansion. We achieve reduction in uncertainty by conditioning the KL expansion coefficients on measurements. We consider two approaches for conditioning the KL expansion: In Approach 1, we condition the KL model first and then truncate it. In Approach 2, we first truncate the KL expansion and then condition it. We employ the conditional KL expansion together with Monte Carlo and sparse grid collocation methods to compute the moments of the solution of the SPDE problem. Uncertainty of the problem is further reduced by adaptively selecting additional observation locations using two active learning methods. Method 1 minimizes the variance of the PDE coefficient, while Method 2 minimizes the variance of the solution of the PDE. We demonstrate that conditioning leads to dimension reduction of the KL representation of Y (x). For a linear diffusion SPDE with uncertain log-normal coefficient, we show that Approach 1 provides a more accurate approximation of the conditional log-normal coefficient and solution of the SPDE than Approach 2 for the same number of random dimensions in a conditional KL expansion. Furthermore, Approach 2 provides a good estimate for the number of terms of the truncated KL expansion of the conditional field of Approach 1. Finally, we demonstrate that active learning based on Method 2 is more efficient for uncertainty reduction in the SPDE’s states (i.e., it leads to a larger reduction of the variance) than active learning using Method 2.

Conditioned Karhunen-Lo` eve expanion, machine lea↗

DOE OSTI2021

Loads on a Jacket-Supported Wind Turbine During Hurricane Sandy Simulation

Abstract The dynamic response of a jacket-supported offshore wind turbine under coupled wind, wave, and current fields during Hurricane Sandy is the subject of this study. To illustrate the detailed procedure related to the response evaluation of a 5-MW offshore wind turbine with a jacket support structure, we consider a single site where the water depth is 50 m. Loads are computed using two simulation tools, fast and abaqus, with partial coupling. Aerodynamic loads on the turbine rotor are first evaluated using a wind turbine model in fast with a fixed base; then, these rotor aerodynamic loads are applied as point loads at the top of a model of a tower that is supported by a jacket structure in abaqus. On the basis of stochastic simulations, we discuss the applicability of the abaqus jacket modeling and describe the characteristics and comparisons of the aerodynamic and hydrodynamic effects on loads on the jacket members. Details related to the structural model and soil–pile interaction model employed in the analyses are also discussed.

Engineering↗