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At least 1,171 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements and Advanced Air Sealing

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson, et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP) (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER) With Envelope Improvements. This measure combines a two-stage GHP with envelope improvements as a single package. As this package is a combination of two other measures, this document focused on documenting the results associated with this combination of technologies, with individual measure documents for two-stage GHPs and envelope improvements providing the information on the details of these measures. When the two technologies are combined, envelope improvements can modestly reduce energy consumption by a further 10%-15%, but also reduce the required size of the ground heat exchanger and heat pump by approximately 33% on average across all sites. The cost of installing envelope improvements in these homes is likely to be more than paid for by the reduction in equipment and drilling costs in these buildings for the majority of the stock.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (3.8 COP, 18.6 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Single-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP).?Single-stage GHPs are able to reduce energy consumption by 31% for the entire stock. Additional results provided below detail how savings changes for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuel and in different climate zones, as well as the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (4.4 COP, 30.9 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock (TM) is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Variable-Speed Geothermal Heat Pump (GHP). This document provides the relevant new modeling information for variable-speed systems not previously covered in either the single-stage or two-stage documents. Variable-speed GHPs represent the most efficient option available for this technology: They provide the most savings, with up to 46% for the applicable portion of the housing stock, compared to 31% for less efficient single-stage GHPs. Additional results shown here detail how the savings change for sections of the housing stock with different base heating fuels and in different climate zones, and they show the savings potential by state for both heating and cooling. Utility bills and electric panel impacts are also shown and discussed.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ResStock Measure Documentation: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER)

The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and other retrofit end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to retrofits that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An "end-use savings shape" is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, demand flexibility, or other retrofit measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ResStock is a highly granular, physics-based, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the residential building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. residential building stock as it existed in 2018. Technical documentation for the inputs and assumptions in the baseline building stock model is available in Reyna et al. (2025). Calibration and validation of the baseline model results are available in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project (Wilson et al. 2022). This document focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure: Residential Two-Stage Geothermal Heat Pump (4.0 COP, 20.5 EER). This document builds on details established in the single-stage document (Maguire et al. 2025) to detail differences in the approach to modeling this higher efficiency, but more commonly deployed, type of geothermal heat pump. Specific EnergyPlus objects and product specific curves used are highlighted along with showing the results of this measure compared to the baseline and single-speed geothermal heat pumps. Two-speed geothermal heat pumps are able to save even more energy and on utility bills than single-speed products, albeit at the expense of a higher first cost.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1978

Gain degradation and amplitude scintillation due to tropospheric turbulence

It is shown that a simple physical model is adequate for the prediction of the long term statistics of both the reduced signal levels and increased peak-to-peak fluctuations. The model is based on conventional atmospheric turbulence theory and incorporates both amplitude and angle of arrival fluctuations. This model predicts the average variance of signals observed under clear air conditions at low elevation angles on earth-space paths at 2, 7.3, 20 and 30 GHz. Design curves based on this model for gain degradation, realizable gain, amplitude fluctuation as a function of antenna aperture size, frequency, and either terrestrial path length or earth-space path elevation angle are presented.

Theobold, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Ultrasonic scanning of multilayer ceramic chip capacitors

Ultrasonic scanning is compared to neutron radiography and scanning laser acoustic microscopy (SLAM). Data show that SLAM and ultrasonic scanning evaluations are in good agreement. There is poor agreement between N-ray and both ultrasonic techniques because N-ray is insensitive to all but the grossest delaminations. Statistical analysis show a good correlation between ultrasonic scanning and destructive physical analysis.

Bradley, F. N.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Observations of IMF and seasonal effects in high-latitude convection

Strong interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and seasonal effects in the convection of nightside ionospheric plasma are described. The findings are based on a statistical analysis of observations made with the Johns Hopkins University/ Applied Physics Lab (JHU/APL) HF radar located at Goose Bay, Labrador. For positive sign of the IMF dusk-dawn component, By greater than 0 the dawn cell is more crescent shaped and the dusk cell more round while for BY less than 0 these pairings of size and shape are reversed. The more extreme crescent /round cell dichotomy is obtained for BY greater than 0. The return flows associated with the crescent-shaped cell dominate at midnight MLT (magnetic local time); the reversal in the zonal velocity in the 67 deg-69 deg lambda (magnetic latitude) interval occurs 2.5 hr earlier in summer than in winter. The maximum effects are obtained on the nightside for the pairings By greater than 0, summer and BY less than 0, winter; the first produces the more structured cell in the morning, the second in the evening, and this cell dominates the return flow at midnight. The difference in the zonal flow reversals for these pairings exceeds 4 hr in MLT.

Ruohoniemi, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Spacecraft Internal Acoustic Environment Modeling

Acoustic modeling can be used to identify key noise sources, determine/analyze sub-allocated requirements, keep track of the accumulation of minor noise sources, and to predict vehicle noise levels at various stages in vehicle development, first with estimates of noise sources, later with experimental data. This paper describes the implementation of acoustic modeling for design purposes by incrementally increasing model fidelity and validating the accuracy of the model while predicting the noise of sources under various conditions. During FY 07, a simple-geometry Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) model was developed and validated using a physical mockup and acoustic measurements. A process for modeling the effects of absorptive wall treatments and the resulting reverberation environment were developed. During FY 08, a model with more complex and representative geometry of the Orion Crew Module (CM) interior was built, and noise predictions based on input noise sources were made. A corresponding physical mockup was also built. Measurements were made inside this mockup, and comparisons were made with the model and showed excellent agreement. During FY 09, the fidelity of the mockup and corresponding model were increased incrementally by including a simple ventilation system. The airborne noise contribution of the fans was measured using a sound intensity technique, since the sound power levels were not known beforehand. This is opposed to earlier studies where Reference Sound Sources (RSS) with known sound power level were used. Comparisons of the modeling result with the measurements in the mockup showed excellent results. During FY 10, the fidelity of the mockup and the model were further increased by including an ECLSS (Environmental Control and Life Support System) wall, associated closeout panels, and the gap between ECLSS wall and mockup wall. The effect of sealing the gap and adding sound absorptive treatment to ECLSS wall were also modeled and validated.

Chu, Shao-Sheng R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Designing an Exploration Atmosphere Prebreathe Protocol

Extravehicular activities (EVAs) at remote locations must maximize limited resources such as oxygen (O2) and also minimize the risk of decompression sickness (DCS). A proposed remote denitrogenation (prebreathe) protocol requires astronauts to live in a mildly hypoxic atmosphere at 8.2 psia while periodically performing EVAs at 4.3 psia. Empirical data are required to confirm that the protocol meets the current accept requirements: less than or equal to 15% incidence of Type I DCS, less than or equal to 20% incidence of Grade IV venous gas emboli (VGE), both at 95% statistical confidence, with no Type II DCS symptom during the validation trial. METHODS: A repeated measures statistical design is proposed in which groups of 6 subjects with physical characteristics similar to active-duty astronauts would first become equilibrated to an 8.2 psia atmosphere in a hypobaric chamber containing 34% O2 and 66% N2, over 48 h, and then perform 4 simulated EVAs at 4.3 psia over the next 9 days. In the equilibration phase, subjects undergo a 3-h 100% O2 mask prebreathe prior to and during a 5-min ascent to 8.2 psia to prevent significant tissue N2 supersaturation on reaching 8.2 psia. Masks would be removed once 34% O2 is established at 8.2 psia, and subjects would then equilibrate to this atmosphere for 48 h. The hypoxia is equivalent to breathing air at 1,220 meters (4,000 ft) altitude, just as was experienced in the shuttle 10.2 psia - 26.5% O2 staged denitrogenation protocol and the current ISS campout denitrogenation protocol. For simulated EVAs, each subject dons a mask and breathes 85% O2 and 15% N2 during a 3-min depressurization to 6.0 psia, holds for 15 min, and then completes a 3-min depressurization to 4.3 psia. The simulated EVA period starts when 6.0 psia is reached and continues for a total of 240 min (222 min at 4.3 psia). During this time, subjects will follow a prescribed repetitive activity against loads in the upper and lower body with mean metabolic rate approaching 1500 BTU/hr [378 kcal/hr (O2 consumption about 1.3 l(sub STPD)/min)] in ambulatory subjects. Noninvasive Doppler ultrasound bubble monitoring for VGE in the pulmonary artery will be performed on subjects by 2 Doppler Technicians at about 15 min intervals while at 4.3 psia. At the end of this period, a 15-min repressurization returns all subjects back to 8.2 psia and the cycle is repeated 3 additional times with a day of rest between simulated EVAs. RESULTS: With an assumed 1.5% probability of DCS [P(DCS)] and accounting for within-subject correlation, running the proposed study with 20 subjects has a 95% probability of meeting the accept criterion for DCS. But if the true probability of DCS is 3.0%, then 30 subjects would be needed to achieve about the same probability to meet our accept criterion. These results assume a standard deviation of 1.4 for the between-subjects random component of P(DCS) on a logit scale, which was estimated from a previous study.

Conkin, Johnny↗
NASA NTRS2017

Algorithms for the Computation of Debris Risks

Determining the risks from space debris involve a number of statistical calculations. These calculations inevitably involve assumptions about geometry - including the physical geometry of orbits and the geometry of non-spherical satellites. A number of tools have been developed in NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office to handle these calculations; many of which have never been published before. These include algorithms that are used in NASA's Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0, as well as other tools useful for computing orbital collision rates and ground casualty risks. This paper will present an introduction to these algorithms and the assumptions upon which they are based.

Matney, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2017

Algorithms for the Computation of Debris Risk

Determining the risks from space debris involve a number of statistical calculations. These calculations inevitably involve assumptions about geometry - including the physical geometry of orbits and the geometry of satellites. A number of tools have been developed in NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office to handle these calculations; many of which have never been published before. These include algorithms that are used in NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0, as well as other tools useful for computing orbital collision rates and ground casualty risks. This paper presents an introduction to these algorithms and the assumptions upon which they are based.

Matney, Mark J.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Determination of Critical Experiment Correlations Using the Sampler Sequence Within SCALE 6.2

The validation of neutron transport methods used in nuclear criticality safety analyses is required by consensus American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) standards. In the last decade, there has been an increased interest in correlations among critical experiments used in validation that have shared physical attributes and which impact the independence of each measurement. The statistical methods included in many of the frequently cited guidance documents on performing validation calculations incorporate the assumption that all individual measurements are independent, so little guidance is available to practitioners on the topic. Typical guidance includes recommendations to select experiments from multiple facilities and experiment series in an attempt to minimize the impact of correlations or common-cause errors in experiments. Recent efforts have been made both to determine the magnitude of such correlations between experiments and to develop and apply methods for adjusting the bias and bias uncertainty to account for the correlations. This paper describes recent work performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using the Sampler sequence from the SCALE code system to develop experimental correlations using a Monte Carlo sampling technique. Sampler will be available for the first time with the release of SCALE 6.2, and a brief introduction to the methods used to calculate experiment correlations within this new sequence is presented in this paper. Techniques to utilize these correlations in the establishment of upper subcritical limits are the subject of a companion paper and will not be discussed here. Example experimental uncertainties and correlation coefficients are presented for a variety of low-enriched uranium water-moderated lattice experiments selected for use in a benchmark exercise by the Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety Subgroup on Uncertainty Analysis in Criticality Safety Analyses. The results include studies on the effect of fuel rod pitch on the correlations, and some observations are also made regarding difficulties in determining experimental correlations using the Monte Carlo sampling technique.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Determination of critical experiment correlations using the sampler sequence within scale 6.2 - 14602

The validation of neutron transport methods used in nuclear criticality safety analyses is required by consensus American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) standards. In the last decade, there has been an increased interest in correlations among critical experiments used in validation that have shared physical attributes and which impact the independence of each measurement. The statistical methods included in many of the frequently cited guidance documents on performing validation calculations incorporate the assumption that all individual measurements are independent, so little guidance is available to practitioners on the topic. Typical guidance includes recommendations to select experiments from multiple facilities and experiment series in an attempt to minimize the impact of correlations or common-cause errors in experiments. Recent efforts have been made both to determine the magnitude of such correlations between experiments and to develop and apply methods for adjusting the bias and bias uncertainty to account for the correlations. This paper describes recent work performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using the Sampler sequence from the SCALE code system to develop experimental correlations using a Monte Carlo sampling technique. Sampler will be available for the first time with the release of SCALE 6.2, and a brief introduction to the methods used to calculate experiment correlations within this new sequence is presented in this paper. Techniques to utilize these correlations in the establishment of upper subcritical limits are the subject of a companion paper and will not be discussed here. Example experimental uncertainties and correlation coefficients are presented for a variety of low-enriched uranium water-moderated lattice experiments selected for use in a benchmark exercise by the Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety Subgroup on Uncertainty Analysis in Criticality Safety Analyses. The results include studies on the effect of fuel rod pitch on the correlations, and some observations are also made regarding difficulties in determining experimental correlations using the Monte Carlo sampling technique. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs: A review of forecasting approaches

In order to reach Europe's 2020 and 2050 targets in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, geothermal resources will have to contribute substantially to meeting carbon-free energy needs. However, public opinion may prevent future large-scale application of deep geothermal power plants, because induced seismicity is often perceived as an unsolicited and uncontrollable side effect of geothermal development. In the last decade, significant advances were made in the development of models to forecast induced seismicity, which are either based on catalogues of induced seismicity, on the underlying physical processes, or on a hybrid philosophy. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the existing approaches applied to geothermal contexts. This overview will outline the advantages and drawbacks of the different approaches, identify the gaps in our understanding, and describe the needs for geothermal observations. Most of the forecasting approaches focus on the stimulation phase of enhanced geothermal systems which are most prone to generate seismic events. Besides the statistical models suited for real-time applications during reservoir stimulation, the physics-based models have the advantage of considering sub-surface characteristics and estimating the impact of fluid circulation on the reservoir. Thus, to mitigate induced seismicity during major hydraulic stimulations, application of hybrid methods in a decision support system seems the best available solution. So far, however, little attention has been paid to geochemical effects on the failure process and to production periods. Quantitative modelling of induced seismicity still is a challenging and complex matter. Appropriate resources remain to be invested for the scientific community to continue its research and development efforts to successfully forecast induced seismicity in geothermal fields. This is a prerequisite for making this renewable energy resource sustainable and accessible worldwide.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variance Reduction within Implicit Monte Carlo Thermal Radiation Transport using the Local Importance Function Transform [Slides]

System of equations derived by Fleck and Cummings to model time-dependent thermal radiative transfer (TRT) problems: Solution of radiation specific intensity (I), non-linearly coupled to material internal energy (U); Absorption and re-emission approximated by effective scattering events. Useful for high-energy density physics simulations: i.e., astrophysics, inertial confinement fusion (ICF). Whereas deterministic methods are fully discretized and free of statistical noise, Monte Carlo methods allow for dynamic sampling of the phase space at the price of statistical noise; Monte Carlo methods are also characterized by a slow $\frac{1}{√Ν}$ convergence rate.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Spacewatch Survey of the Solar System

The purpose of the Spacewatch project is to explore the various populations of small objects throughout the solar system. Statistics on all classes of small bodies are needed to infer their physical and dynamical evolution. More Earth Approachers need to be found to assess the impact hazard. (We have adopted the term "Earth Approacher", EA, to include all those asteroids, nuclei of extinct short period comets, and short period comets that can approach close to Earth. The adjective "near" carries potential confusion, as we have found in communicating with the media, that the objects are always near Earth, following it like a cloud.) Persistent and voluminous accumulation of astrometry of incidentally observed main belt asteroids MBAs will eventually permit the Minor Planet Center (MPQ to determine the orbits of large numbers (tens of thousands) of asteroids. Such a large body of information will ultimately allow better resolution of orbit classes and the determinations of luminosity functions of the various classes, Comet and asteroid recoveries are essential services to planetary astronomy. Statistics of objects in the outer solar system (Centaurs, scattered-disk objects, and Trans-Neptunian Objects; TNOs) ultimately will tell part of the story of solar system evolution. Spacewatch led the development of sky surveying by electronic means and has acted as a responsible interface to the media and general public on this discipline and on the issue of the hazard from impacts by asteroids and comets.

McMillan, Robert S.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Bootstrap performance profiles in stochastic algorithms assessment

Optimization with stochastic algorithms has become a relevant research field. Due to its stochastic nature, its assessment is not straightforward and involves integrating accuracy and precision. Performance profiles for the mean do not show the trade-off between accuracy and precision, and parametric stochastic profiles require strong distributional assumptions and are limited to the mean performance for a large number of runs. In this work, bootstrap performance profiles are used to compare stochastic algorithms for different statistics. This technique allows the estimation of the sampling distribution of almost any statistic even with small samples. Multiple comparison profiles are presented for more than two algorithms. The advantages and drawbacks of each assessment methodology are discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗