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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

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NASA NTRS2016

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

PM2.5↗

DOE OSTI2014

Model reduction for slow–fast stochastic systems with metastable behaviour

The quasi-steady-state approximation (or stochastic averaging principle) is a useful tool in the study of multiscale stochastic systems, giving a practical method by which to reduce the number of degrees of freedom in a model. The method is extended here to slow–fast systems in which the fast variables exhibit metastable behaviour. The key parameter that determines the form of the reduced model is the ratio of the timescale for the switching of the fast variables between metastable states to the timescale for the evolution of the slow variables. The method is illustrated with two examples: one from biochemistry (a fast-species-mediated chemical switch coupled to a slower varying species), and one from ecology (a predator–prey system). Numerical simulations of each model reduction are compared with those of the full system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2015

Contribution of Phenological and Physiological Variations on Northern Vegetation Productivity Changes over Last Three Decades

Plant phenology and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of gross primary productivity (GPP) of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts of phenology and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we investigate 1) how vegetation phenology and physiological status (maximum photosynthesis) are evolved over last three decades and 2) how such components (phenology and physiological status) contribute on inter-annual variation of the GPP during the last three decades. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed (GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies), NDVI3g (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index 3rd generation) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)) to extract larger scale phenology metrics (growing season start, end and duration); and productivity (i.e., growing season integrated vegetation index, GSIVI) to answer these questions. For evaluation purpose, we also introduced field-measured phenology and productivity datasets (e.g., FLUXNET) and possible remotely-sensed and modeled metrics at continental and regional scales. From this investigation, we found that onset of the growing season has advanced by 1.61 days per decade and the growing season end has delayed by 0.67 days per decade over the circumpolar region. This asymmetric extension of growing season results in a longer growing-season trend (2.96 days per decade) and widespread increasing vegetation-productivity trend (2.96 GSIVI per decade) over Northern land. However, the regionally-diverged phenology shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity, inter-annual variability and trend. We quantified that about 50 percent, 13 percent and 6.5 percent of Northern land's inter-annual variability are dominantly controlled by the onset of the growing season, the end of the growing season and the maximum photosynthetic state, respectively. Productivity characterization over the other approximately 30 percent region has been driven by these co-dominant drivers. Our study clearly shows that regionally different contribution of phenological and physiological components on characterizing vegetation production over the last three decades.

productivity↗

DOE OSTI2014

Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat (Presentation)

India has ambitious goals for high utilization of variable renewable power from wind and solar, and deployment has been proceeding at a rapid pace. The western state of Gujarat currently has the largest amount of solar generation of any Indian state, with over 855 Megawatts direct current (MWDC). Combined with over 3,240 MW of wind, variable generation renewables comprise nearly 18% of the electric-generating capacity in the state. A new historic 10-kilometer (km) gridded solar radiation data set capturing hourly insolation values for 2002-2011 is available for India. We apply an established method for downscaling hourly irradiance data to one-minute irradiance data at potential PV power production locations for one year, 2006. The objective of this report is to characterize the intra-hour variability of existing and planned photovoltaic solar power generation in the state of Gujarat (a total of 1.9 gigawatts direct current (GWDC)), and of five possible expansion scenarios of solar generation that reflect a range of geographic diversity (each scenario totals 500-1,000 MW of additional solar capacity). The report statistically analyzes one year's worth of power variability data, applied to both the baseline and expansion scenarios, to evaluate diurnal and seasonal power fluctuations, different timescales of variability (e.g., from one to 15 minutes), the magnitude of variability (both total megawatts and relative to installed solar capacity), and the extent to which the variability can be anticipated in advance. The paper also examines how Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (GETCO) and the Gujarat State Load Dispatch Centre (SLDC) could make use of the solar variability profiles in grid operations and planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Variability of Power from Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Scenarios in the State of Gujarat: Preprint

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Sampling of Crystal Nucleation with Graph Representation Learnt Variables

In this study, we present a graph neural network-based learning approach using an autoencoder setup to derive low-dimensional variables from features observed in experimental crystal structures. These variables are then biased in enhanced sampling to observe state-to-state transitions and reliable thermodynamic weights. Our approach uses simple convolution and pooling methods. To verify the effectiveness of our protocol, we examined the nucleation of various allotropes and polymorphs of iron and glycine from their molten states. Our graph latent variables when biased in well-tempered metadynamics consistently show transitions between states and achieve accurate free energy calculations in agreement with experiments, both of which are indicators of dependable sampling. This underscores the strength and promise of our graph neural net variables for improved sampling. Furthermore, the protocol shown here should be applicable for other systems and with other sampling methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1993

Incongruity, incongruity resolution, and mental states: The measure and modification of situational awareness and control

The research reported here describes the process of induction of various mental states. Our goals were to measure and to manipulate both the behavioral and the neurological correlates of particular mental states that have previously been demonstrated to be either beneficial or deleterious to in-flight performance situations. The experimental paradigm involved developing a context of which the participants were aware, followed by the introduction of an incongruity into that context. The empirical questions involved how the incongruity was resolved and the consequent effects on mental state. The dependent variables were measures of both the short-term ERP changes and the longer-term brain mapping indications of predominant mental states. The mission of NASA Flight Management Division and Human/Automation Integration Branch centers on the understanding and improvement of interaction between a complex system and a human operator. Specifically, the goal is improved efficiency through better operative procedures and control strategies. More efficient performance in demanding flight environments depends on improved situational awareness and replanning for fault management.

Derks, Peter L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

State-Level Trends in Renewable Energy Procurement via Solar Installation versus Green Electricity

In recent years, options for procuring renewable energy have increased, ranging from rooftop solar installation to utility green pricing to Community Choice Aggregation. These options vary in terms of costs and benefits to the consumer as well as grid integration implications. However, little is known regarding how the presence of a wide range of voluntary utility-scale renewable procurement options as well as their growth could affect adoption of distributed residential solar. To examine this relationship, we fit a two-stage least squares random effects regression model on panel data from 2016 to 2019 for all fifty US states plus the District of Columbia, controlling for variables that measure state-level policies, economic factors, and resource availability. Although there was no evidence of a strong relationship between demand for utility-scale and distributed options across all states, the state-level correlations suggest a wide variation between states including a positive, zero or negative relationship between utility-scale and distributed generation.

consumer demand↗

DOE OSTI2026

Haze processing of atmospheric particles during wintertime in the Indo-Gangetic Plains

The impacts of haze on visibility, air quality, and climate are not well quantified due to a lack of understanding of the evolution of the mixing state and phase state of atmospheric particles during haze processing. The variability of the mixing state of atmospheric particles contributes significantly to uncertainties associated with the estimated aerosol radiative forcing. We collected particle samples in January 2018 from the highly polluted Indo-Gangetic plain during hazy conditions to study haze-processed particles. Single particle analysis using multi-modal micro-spectroscopy techniques revealed an abundance (40–70% by number) of potassium-rich sulfate particles from biomass-burning influenced smoke. Tilted view imaging showed that most of the organic particles that had inorganic potassium and sulfate inclusions were liquid-like while those without inclusions were more semi-solid. High-resolution mass spectrometry analysis revealed a significant presence of organosulfates and nitroxy-organosulfates in the morning samples (24%) compared to the afternoon samples (9%), despite higher relative humidity in the afternoon. Overall, our results highlight the significant contribution of both organic and inorganic sulfate to the total particulate sulfur budget during haze processing in winter, when anthropogenic emissions such as household burning, agricultural burning, and vehicular emissions are major contributors to particle mass.

Mathai, Susan [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗

NASA NTRS1979

NLSCIDNT user's guide maximum likehood parameter identification computer program with nonlinear rotorcraft model

A nonlinear, maximum likelihood, parameter identification computer program (NLSCIDNT) is described which evaluates rotorcraft stability and control coefficients from flight test data. The optimal estimates of the parameters (stability and control coefficients) are determined (identified) by minimizing the negative log likelihood cost function. The minimization technique is the Levenberg-Marquardt method, which behaves like the steepest descent method when it is far from the minimum and behaves like the modified Newton-Raphson method when it is nearer the minimum. Twenty-one states and 40 measurement variables are modeled, and any subset may be selected. States which are not integrated may be fixed at an input value, or time history data may be substituted for the state in the equations of motion. Any aerodynamic coefficient may be expressed as a nonlinear polynomial function of selected 'expansion variables'.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2026

Oil price states and drivers: An analysis of the second-month spot-futures price differential

Oil remains a dominant component of global energy use, and its price, characterized by frequent changes and an ever-present potential for large swings, continues to be a focus of industry participants, policymakers and analysts attention. Here, this study examines the behavior of future spot oil prices using a continuous-time hidden Markov model (HMM) and daily price data spanning years 2007 to 2024. We identify six states in the second-month WTI spot-futures price differential and assess the roles of eleven futures price, quantity, financial market, and geopolitical/volatility variables in each state. The model yields several insights into the workings of the oil market and the relative roles of these drivers. We find support for several theoretical and empirical findings in the oil market literature, including the role of inventory, volatility/risk, and market responses to contango/backwardation in futures markets. A novel finding is that “normal contango” conditions represent a significant portion of next-day states in our in-sample data. Under the most volatile normal contango state, many of the oil market drivers differ markedly in coefficient signs and magnitudes from those in other states. The resulting model also performed well out-of-sample and would, in addition to understanding the impact of market drivers, be useful for short-term forecasting. Overall, the findings highlight the highly non-linear, regime-dependent interactions of the oil price and its drivers, emphasizing the importance of detailed information to market stakeholders.

Oladosu, Gbadebo A. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2021

Classification and regression models of audio and vibration signals for machine state monitoring in precision machining systems

Here we present a data-driven method for monitoring machine status in manufacturing processes. Audio and vibration data from precision machining are used for inference in two operating scenarios: (a) variable machine health states (anomaly detection); and (b) settings of machine operation (state estimation). Audio and vibration signals are first processed through Fast Fourier Transform and Principal Component Analysis to extract transformed and informative features. These features are then used in the training of classification and regression models for machine state monitoring. Specifically, three classifiers (K-nearest neighbors, convolutional neural networks and support vector machines) and two regressors (support vector regression and neural network regression) were explored, in terms of their accuracy in machine state prediction. It is shown that the audio and vibration signals are sufficiently rich in information about the machine that 100% state classification accuracy could be accomplished. Data fusion was also explored, showing overall superior accuracy of data-driven regression models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Anomalous Low State of LMC X-3

Archival RXTE ASM and PCA observations of the black hole binary LMC X-3 reveal a dramatic and extended low state lasting from December 8, 2003 until March 18, 2004, unprecedented both in its Low luminosity (Lx(2-10keV)=4.2x 1035 ergs s-1, approximately 4 times fainter than ever before seen from LMC X-3 in its low/hard state, and representing 0.15% of its X-ray luminosity during the high/soft state); and Long duration (approximately equal to 100 days, as compared with 5-20 days for 'normal' low/hard state excursions). During this anomalous low state no significant variability is observed on timescales of days-weeks, and the spectrum is well described by a simple power law with index 1.7 plus or minus 0.2. We examine the variability characteristics of LMC X-3 before and after this event using conventional and topological methods, and show that with the exception of the anomalous low state itself the long-term behavior of the source in topological phase space can be completely described in terms of a well-understood nonlinear dynamics system known as the Duffing oscillator, implying that the accretion disk in LMC X-3 is a driven, dissipative system with two solutions competing for control of its time evolution. This work shows that dynamical information and constraints revealed by topological analysis methods can provide a valuable addition to traditional studies of accretion disk behavior.

Smale, A. P.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗

DOE OSTI2019

Hopping transport in SrTiO 3 /Nd 1–x TiO 3 /SrTiO 3 heterostructures

Electronic transport near the insulator-metal transition is investigated in the molecular beam epitaxy-grown SrTiO 3 /Nd 1–x TiO 3 /SrTiO 3 heterostructures using temperature dependent magnetotransport measurements. It was found that Nd vacancies introduce localized electronic states resulting in variable range hopping transport at low temperatures. At a fixed Nd-vacancy concentration, a crossover from Mott to Efros-Shklovskii variable range hopping transport was observed with decreasing temperature. With increasing disorder, a sign reversal of magnetoresistance from positive to negative was observed revealing interplay between intra-state interaction and the energy dependence of the localization length. Furthermore, these findings highlight the important role of stoichiometry when exploring intrinsic effects using heterostructure and interfaces in addition to offering broad opportunities to tailor low temperature transport using nonstoichiometry defects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1965

Necessary conditions for a multistage bolza- mayer problem involving control variables and having inequality and finite equation constraints

A multiplier rule and analogues of the Weierstrass and Clebsch conditions are developed for a multistage Bolza-Meyer calculus of variations problems. The number of stages is fixed, but partition points defining state boundaries are variable. Discontinuities are allowed in variables finite equations and inequalities, as well as differential equations, all of which involve control variables. An appendix summarizes some of the results obtained by C. H. Denbow, as modified by R. W. hunt, for a generalized Bolza problem. The appendix is independent of the rest of the paper.

Differential equation↗

NASA NTRS1977

Transformation theory and translation factors in inelastic atomic collisions

It is shown through the use of transformation theory that unique semiclassical atomic scattering states which obey the asymptotic conditions of formal scattering theory can be derived by transforming 'nontraveling' atomic states, ie., states whose coordinate variables are referred to a stationary origin, to frames at rest with respect to the incoming or outgoing particles. An overview of the problem of properly defining such scattering states is presented. The operator which carries out the necessary transformation from inertial to noninertial frames is derived and its properties are discussed. The relation of this transformation operator to the 'translation factor' discussed in the literature is presented. The application of this operator to transform the time-dependent Schroedinger equation from an inertial to a noninertial frame is presented and shown to introduce new terms in the resulting equation. The implications of these new terms to scattering problems are discussed.

Schmid, G. B.↗

DOE OSTI2016

On dynamical systems approaches and methods in f ( R ) cosmology

We discuss dynamical systems approaches and methods applied to flat Robertson-Walker models in f ( R )-gravity. We argue that a complete description of the solution space of a model requires a global state space analysis that motivates globally covering state space adapted variables. This is shown explicitly by an illustrative example, f ( R ) = R + α R {sup 2}, α > 0, for which we introduce new regular dynamical systems on global compactly extended state spaces for the Jordan and Einstein frames. This example also allows us to illustrate several local and global dynamical systems techniques involving, e.g., blow ups of nilpotent fixed points, center manifold analysis, averaging, and use of monotone functions. As a result of applying dynamical systems methods to globally state space adapted dynamical systems formulations, we obtain pictures of the entire solution spaces in both the Jordan and the Einstein frames. This shows, e.g., that due to the domain of the conformal transformation between the Jordan and Einstein frames, not all the solutions in the Jordan frame are completely contained in the Einstein frame. We also make comparisons with previous dynamical systems approaches to f ( R ) cosmology and discuss their advantages and disadvantages.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗