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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Self-organization of cosmic radiation pressure instability

Under some circumstances the absorption of radiation momentum by an absorbing medium opens the possibility of a dynamical instability, sometimes called 'mock gravity'. Here, a simplified abstract model is studied in which the radiation source is assumed to remain spatially uniform, there is no reabsorption or reradiated light, and no forces other than radiative pressure act on the absorbing medium. It is shown that this model displays the unique feature of being not only unstable, but also self-organizing. The structure approaches a statistical dynamical steady state which is almost independent of initial conditions. In this saturated state the absorbers are concentrated in thin walls around empty bubbles; as the instability develops the big bubbles get bigger and the small ones get crushed and disappear. A linear analysis shows that to first order the thin walls are indeed stable structures. It is speculated that this instability may play a role in forming cosmic large-scale structure.

Hogan, Craig J.↗

Validation of Satellite-Based Precipitation Products from TRMM to GPM

The global precipitation measurement mission (GPM) has been in operation for seven years and continues to provide a vast quantity of global precipitation data at finer temporospatial resolutions with improved accuracy and coverage. GPM’s signature algorithm, the integrated multisatellite retrievals for GPM (IMERG) is a next-generation of precipitation product expected for wide variety of research and operational applications. This study evaluates the latest version (V06B) of IMERG and its predecessor, the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) multisatellite precipitation (TMPA) 3B42 (V7) using ground-based and gauge-corrected multiradar multisensor system (MRMS) precipitation products over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The spatial distributions of all products are analyzed. The error characteristics are further examined for 3B42 and IMERG in winter and summer by an error decomposition approach, which partitions total bias into hit bias, biases due to missed precipitation and false precipitation. The volumetric and categorical statistical metrics are used to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the two satellite-based products. All products show a similar precipitation climatology with some regional differences. The two satellite-based products perform better in the eastern CONUS than in the mountainous Western CONUS. The evaluation demonstrates the clear improvement in IMERG precipitation product in comparison with its predecessor 3B42, especially in reducing missed precipitation in winter and summer, and hit bias in winter, resulting in better performance in capturing lighter and heavier precipitation.

MRMS↗

Estimating pixel-level uncertainty in ocean color retrievals from MODIS

The spectral distribution of marine remote sensing reflectance, R(rs), is the fundamental measurement of ocean color science, from which a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column can be derived. Estimation of uncertainty in these derived properties is thus dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R(rs) (u(c)(R(rs))) at each pixel. Uncertainty in R(rs), in turn, is dependent on the propagation of various uncertainty sources through the R(rs) retrieval process, namely the atmospheric correction (AC). A derivative-based method for uncertainty propagation is established here to calculate the pixel-level uncertainty in R(rs), as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) AC algorithm and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. The approach is then applied to measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite, with uncertainty sources including instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty. The uc(Rrs) is verified by comparison with statistical analysis of coincident retrievals from MODIS and in situ Rrs measurements, and our approach performs well in most cases. Based on analysis of an example 8-day global products, we also show that relative uncertainty in R(rs) at blue bands has a similar spatial pattern to the derived concentration of the phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a (chl-a), and around 7.3%, 17.0%, and 35.2% of all clear water pixels (chl-a ≤ 0.1 mg/cu.m) with valid u(c)(R(rs)) have a relative uncertainty ≤ 5% at bands 412 nm, 443 nm, and 488 nm respectively, which is a common goal of ocean color retrievals for clear waters. While the analysis shows that u(c)(R(rs)) calculated from our derivative-based method is reasonable, some issues need further investigation, including improved knowledge of forward model uncertainty and systematic uncertainty in instrument calibration.

Pixel-level uncertainty↗

Evaluating the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network in Utah, US, using both ray tracing-derived and empirical-derived celerity-range and backazimuth models

SUMMARY More realistic models for infrasound signal propagation across a region can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of spatial and temporal source localization estimates. Motivated by incomplete infrasound event bulletins in the Western US, the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network of stations located between 84–458 km from the Utah Test and Training Range, Utah, USA, is assessed using a series of near-surface explosive events with complementary ground truth (GT) information. Signal arrival times and backazimuth estimates are determined with an automatic F-statistic based signal detector and manually refined by an analyst. This study represents the first application of three distinct celerity-range and backazimuth models to an extensive suite of realistic signal detections for event location purposes. A singular celerity and backazimuth deviation model was previously constructed using ray tracing analysis based on an extensive archive of historical atmospheric specifications and is applied within this study to test location capabilities. Similarly, a set of multivariate, season and location specific models for celerity and backazimuth are compared to an empirical model that depends on the observations across the infrasound network and the GT events, which accounts for atmospheric propagation variations from source to receiver. Discrepancies between observed and predicted signal celerities result in locations with poor accuracy. Application of the empirical model improves both spatial localization precision and accuracy; all but one location estimates retain the true GT location within the 90 per cent confidence bounds. Average mislocation of the events is 15.49 km and average 90 per cent error ellipse areas are 4141 km2. The empirical model additionally reduces origin time residuals; origin time residuals from the other location models are in excess of 160 s while residuals produced with the empirical model are within 30 s of the true origin time. We demonstrate that event location accuracy is driven by a combination of signal propagation model and the azimuthal gap of detecting stations. A direct relationship between mislocation, error ellipse area and increased station azimuthal gaps indicate that for sparse networks, detection backazimuths may drive location biases over traveltime estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wave resource characterization at regional and nearshore scales for the U.S. Alaska coast based on a 32-year high-resolution hindcast

A wave resource characterization was performed for the southern coast of Alaska based on a 32-year hindcast covering the period from 1979 to 2010. The characterization closely followed International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Technical Specifications. An unstructured-grid Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model, which had an approximate spatial resolution of 300 m within 30 km from the nearest shoreline, was developed. Additionally, extensive model validation and error characterization was performed. The model was found to perform well with an average absolute percent error of 8.6% in significant wave height, averaged over 18 buoys. Statistics for the six IEC wave resource parameters were calculated and aggregated at 20 km from shore to quantify the incident wave power and its variability at a regional scale. The southern coast of the Aleutian Archipelago was found to have the most available wave energy in the region. A nearshore resource assessment was performed by evaluating resource hotspots located 1 km from shore. More than 900 nearshore stations had an Optimum Hotspot Identifier value of 5 (kW/m) at diverse water depths, thereby positioning Alaska as a promising location for wave energy development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate-Driven Limits to Future Carbon Storage in California's Wildland Ecosystems

Enhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forest and climate analog approaches, to explore the climate-driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long-term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation are estimated to drive decreases of 16.1% ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid-elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines are less severe, with 8.8% ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, increases in temperature systematically cause biomass declines, and the spread of projected precipitation across 32 CMIP5 models contributes to substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of that decline. Projected changes in the environmental niche for the 20 most biomass-dominant tree species revealed widespread replacement of conifers by oak species in low elevation regions of central and northern California, with a corresponding decline in carbon storage depending on expected migration rates. The spatial patterns of vulnerability we identify may allow policymakers to assess where carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass is an appropriate part of a climate mitigation portfolio, and where future climate-driven carbon losses may be a liability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Use of a diffuser for producing texture masks for image processing

The use of a diffuser in synthesizing binary texture-variance masks for applications in image processing is investigated. The binary texture-variance masks are used to separate various objects in an image on the basis of their spatial texture variance. The diffuser is required to reduce the speckling present in the mask. The reduction in speckling is described quantitatively as a reduction of the misclassification probability associated with the separation of the objects into several texture classes. General results are furnished for the statistics of the field scattered by the diffuser, and these are used to obtain expressions for the misclassification probabilities in the presence of a diffuser.

Stark, H.↗

Spatial power spectra of the crustal geomagnetic field and core geomagnetic field

Equations providing numerical values of the geomagnetic field spherical harmonic spatial power spectrum as defined by Lowes (1966, 1974) are obtained and this power spectrum is related to various other power spectra. Equations relating the spherical harmonic spatial power spectrum to average great circle power spectra for components of the vector magnetic field in the radial direction, along the great circle track and perpendicular to the first two directions are derived under the assumption that the sources of the field are internal. A statistical model for the crustal and core geomagnetic fields is proposed and used to derive equations for the expected main and crustal spherical harmonic power spectra. The model equations are then compared with observations to determine a scale factor which is then used to obtain an estimate for the core radius and a great circle power spectrum for the field component perpendicular to the great circle and radial directions which are in good agreement with observations. The predicted spherical harmonic power spectrum for the crustal field is found to be consistent with POGO satellite and aircraft data. Other possible models for the crustal and core geomagnetic fields are also briefly considered.

Mcleod, M. G.↗

Star formation in active galaxies and quasars

The observational evidence for a causal or statistical link between star formation and active galactic nuclei are reviewed. The chief difficulty is in quantitatively ascertaining the star formation rate in active galaxies: most of the readily observable manifestations of star formation superficially resemble those of an active nucleus. Careful multi-wavelength spatially-resolved observations demonstrate that many Seyfert galaxies are undergoing star formation. A survey of CO emission from Seyferts (interpreted in conjunction with IRAS data) suggests that type 2 Seyferts have unusually high rates of star formation, but type 1 Seyferts do not. Recent work also suggests that many powerful radio galaxies may be actively forming stars: radio galaxies with strong emission-lines often have blue colors and strong far-infrared emission. Determining the star formation rate in the host galaxies of quasars is especially difficult. Multicolor imaging and long-slit spectroscopy suggests that many of the host galaxies of radio-loud quasars are blue, and a cold interstellar medium has been detected in some quasar hosts.

Heckman, Timothy M.↗

A New Fitting Procedure for the Blended He I 1083 nm Multiplet

The He I 1083 nm multiplet is a powerful tool for observing the outer solar atmosphere but is difficult to analyze because the lines are weak, highly variable, and spectrally blended, both internally and with other neighboring solar and telluric lines. After separation from nearby spectral features, two components of the He I multiplet are resolved. Fitting these lines with two unconstrained Gaussian profiles always gives a ratio of major to minor component of less than half the value which would be expected for optically thin lines. One possibility for explaining the discrepancy between the weakness of the lines and the ratio of the spectral components is to assume that the line formation regions are concentrated in laterally unresolved, optically thick structures with small filling factor. However, we present here a least-squares fitting technique using cubic splines with fixed breakpoints with the constraint that the blend is the sum of three identically shaped profiles shifted in wavelength according to the atomic structure of the blend and weighted by the corresponding statistics weights, in agreement with optically thin line formation. The basis functions for the fitting procedure have no built-in spectral symmetry or shape. The resulting underlying profiles tend to be asymmetric with excess absorption to the blue, consistent with formation by "hot" and "cool" spatial elements within the observed volume, with the hotter regions having differential motion toward the observer. The results agree well with NASA/XSO Spectromagnetograph observations in quiet sun and coronal holes. Partial funding of this research was provided through the NASA Sun-Earth Connection SR&T program.

Jones, H. P.↗

Small-Scale Variability of Large Cloud Drops

Cloud droplet size distribution is one of the most fundamental subjects in cloud physics. Understanding of spatial distribution and small-scale fluctuations of cloud droplets is essential for both cloud physics and atmospheric radiation. For cloud physics, it relates to the coalescence growth of raindrops while for radiation, it has a strong impact on a cloud's radiative properties. Most of the existing cloud radiation and precipitation formation models assume that the mean number of drops with a given radius varies proportionally to volume. The analysis of microphysical data on liquid water drop sizes shows that, for sufficiently small volumes, the number is proportional to the drop size dependent power of the volume. For abundant small drops present, the exponent is 1 as assumed in the conventional approach. However, for rarer large drops, the exponents fall below unity. At small scales, therefore, the mean number of large drops decreases with volume at a slower rate than the conventional approach assumes, suggesting more large drops at these scales than conventional models account for; their impact is consequently underestimated. Size dependent models of spatial distribution of cloud drops that simulate the observed power laws show strong drop clustering, the more so the larger the drops. The degree of clustering is determined by the observed exponents. The strong clustering of large drops arises naturally from the observed power-law statistics. Current theories of photon-cloud interaction and warm rain formation will need radical revision in order to produce these statistics; their underlying equations are unable to yield the observed power law.

Marshak, Alexander↗

Global Patterns of Lightning Properties Derived by OTD and LIS

The satellite instruments Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provide unique empirical data about the frequency of lightning flashes around the globe (OTD), and the tropics (LIS), which 5 has been used before to compile a well received global climatology of flash rate densities. Here we present a statistical analysis of various additional lightning properties derived from OTD/LIS, i.e. the number of so-called "events" and "groups" per flash, as well as 10 the mean flash duration, footprint and radiance. These normalized quantities, which can be associated with the flash "strength", show consistent spatial patterns; most strikingly, oceanic flashes show higher values than continental flashes for all properties. Over land, regions with high (Eastern US) 15 and low (India) flash strength can be clearly identified. We discuss possible causes and implications of the observed regional differences. Although a direct quantitative interpretation of the investigated flash properties is difficult, the observed spatial patterns provide valuable information for the 20 interpretation and application of climatological flash rates. Due to the systematic regional variations of physical flash characteristics, viewing conditions, and/or measurement sensitivities, parametrisations of lightning NOx based on total flash rate densities alone are probably affected by regional biases.

Beirle, Steffen↗

Daily Kilometer-Scale MODIS Satellite Maps of PM2.5 Describe Wintertime Episodes

The San Joaquin Valley (SJV) suffers from severe health-endangering episodes of PM2.5 aerosol loadings in wintertime; episodes last approximately 5 days and differ in geographical distribution and composition. PM2.5 stations are scattered; consequently the use of remote sensing to map variable regional patterns of these varying respirable aerosol concentrations is desirable. High-precision AOT retrievals can capture column particulate loading. However,PM2.5 mapping is challenging due to several reasons: particularly thin mixed layers (ML) and thus relatively low aerosol optical thickness (AOT) close to current measurement limits, variable and a typical composition of the aerosols, and complex surface bidirectional reflectance. However, the West does present some advantages in analysis. Air basins are isolated from long-distance transport, and experience predominant strong meteorological subsidence. Thus these Western basin regions have fewer problematic cases of overriding aerosol layers detached from the surface. To counter such local overriding, Chu et al. have described an approach for the Eastern US, and He et al have described a synoptic classification approach useful in Shanghai. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District (BAAQMD) expands our experience with the use of AOT, with lower PM2.5 and several isolated sub-basins. We have prepared daily maps of episodes in each region. We present also a sequence of increasingly detailed statistical models, AOT initially appears to contribute little information; however, inclusion of weather information reveals its utility. Lyapustin and Wang's MultiAngle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) retrieval for AOT provided the most useful operational remote sensing information for these regions. It provides high (1-km) spatial resolution maps and a high percentage of availability. Empirical regression methods have found that random effects regression models (aka mixed effects models, ME) employing AOT provide good estimates of ground PM2.5 concentrations.Here, we attempt to extend these methods and evaluate the usefulness of AOT with greater physical analysis, based on DISCOVER-AQ4 experience.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

A New Parametrization of the Rain Drop Size Distribution

This paper revisits the problem of finding a parametric form for the rain drop size distribution (DSD) which 1) is an appropriate model for tropical rainfall, and 2) involves statistically independent parameters. Using TOGA/COARE data, we derive a parametrization which meets these criteria. This new parametrization is an improvement on the one that was derived in [3] using TRMM ground truth data from Darwin, Australia. The new COARE data allows us to verify that the spatial variability fo the two

rain↗

Modelling climate analogue regions for a central European city

In this study, we describe a methodology to derive climate analogue cities for spatially highly resolved future climate scenarios. For the computation, a reduced and in hindsight bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX EUR-11 dataset is used based on two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A total of 389 European cities are processed by the algorithm, which uses five statistical climate variables (2-m air temperature average and amplitude, precipitation sum and amplitude, correlation between 2-m air temperature average and precipitation sum). Additionally, extreme weather events (hot days, summer days, tropical nights, extreme precipitation events) are calculated for further comparison and validation. Finding an appropriate analogue permits a more accurate derivation and depiction of necessary climate adaptation efforts and therefore assist decision-making in city planning. As an example of our method, we searched for plausible climate twins for the mid-sized city of Aachen (Germany) at the end of the twenty-first century. Our results show that the French city of Dijon is highly likely to become Aachen’s climate twin by the end of the century for RCP4.5. As for the scenario RCP8.5, no clear European analogue city could be determined, indicating that the city might enter a novel climate. The nearest match suggests the cities of Florence and Prato in Tuscany. However, considering climate indices, the encompassing region of the French–Spanish city triangle Bordeaux–Toulouse–Bilbao is a better fit. The developed algorithm can be applied to any of the cities included in the dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Growing Pacific Linkage with Western North Atlantic Explosive Cyclogenesis

Abstract Explosive cyclones (ECs), defined as extratropical cyclones that experience normalized pressure drops of at least 24 hPa in 24 h, are impactful weather events in the North Atlantic sector, but year-to-year changes in the frequency and impacts of these storms are sizeable. To analyze the sources of this interannual variability, we track cases of ECs and dissect them into two spatial groups: those that formed near the east coast of North America (coastal) and those in the north central Atlantic (high latitude). The frequency of high-latitude ECs is strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, a well-known feature, whereas coastal EC frequency is statistically linked with an atmospheric wave train emanating from the North Pacific in the last 30 years. This wave train pattern of alternating high and low pressure is associated with heightened upper-level divergence and Eady growth rates along the east coast of North America, likely resulting in a stronger correspondence between the atmospheric wave train and coastal EC frequency. Using coupled model experiments, we show that the tropical and North Pacific oceans are an important factor for this atmospheric wave train and the subsequent enhancement of seasonal baroclinicity in the North Atlantic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The compositional structure and the effects of exothermicity in an unpremixed planar jet flame

Results are presented of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of a randomly perturbed compressible, spatially developing planar jet under the influence of a finite rate Arrhenius chemical reaction of the type F + O yields Product + Heat. The objectives of the simulations are to assess the compositional structure of the flame and to determine the influence of reaction exothermicity by means of statistical sampling of the data generated by DNS. It is shown that even with this idealized kinetics model, the simulated results exhibit features in accordance with experimental data. These results indicate that the Damkoehler number is an important parameter in determining the statistical composition of the reacting field, and that the results are insensitive to the mechanism by which this parameter is varied. It is demonstrated that as the intensity of mixing is increased and the effect of finite rate chemistry is more pronounced, the magnitudes of the ensemble mean and rms of the product mass fraction decrease, and those of the reactants mass fraction increase. Also, at higher mixing rates the joint probability density functions of the reactants' mass fractions shift towards higher values within the composition domain indicating a lower reactedness. These trends are consistent with those observed experimentally and are very useful in portraying the statistical structure of non-equilibrium diffusion flames. The DNS generated data are also utilized to examine the applicability of the 'laminar diffusion flamelet model' in predicting the rate of the reactant conversion with finite rate chemistry. This examination indicates that the bounds of the product formation scale reasonably well with those obtained by the flamelet model. However, in the range of the relatively low values of the Damkoehler numbers considered, the scatter of the results is substantially more than that to be completely determined by the closure.

Steinberger, C. J.↗

Visualizing Spatially Varying Distribution Data

Box plot is a compact representation that encodes the minimum, maximum, mean, median, and quarters information of a distribution. In practice, a single box plot is drawn for each variable of interest. With the advent of more accessible computing power, we are now facing the problem of visual icing data where there is a distribution at each 2D spatial location. Simply extending the box plot technique to distributions over 2D domain is not straightforward. One challenge is reducing the visual clutter if a box plot is drawn over each grid location in the 2D domain. This paper presents and discusses two general approaches, using parametric statistics and shape descriptors, to present 2D distribution data sets. Both approaches provide additional insights compared to the traditional box plot technique

Kao, David↗