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At least 1,171 records · Page 65
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NASA NTRS2014

The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

We outline a plan to develop a physics based predictive toolset RISCS to describe the interplanetary energetic particle and radiation environment throughout the inner heliosphere, including at the Earth. To forecast and "nowcast" the radiation environment requires the fusing of three components: 1) the ability to provide probabilities for incipient solar activity; 2) the use of these probabilities and daily coronal and solar wind observations to model the 3D spatial and temporal heliosphere, including magnetic field structure and transients, within 10 AU; and 3) the ability to model the acceleration and transport of energetic particles based on current and anticipated coronal and heliospheric conditions. We describe how to address 1) - 3) based on our existing, well developed, and validated codes and models. The goal of RISCS toolset is to provide an operational forecast and "nowcast" capability that will a) predict solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities; b) spectra for protons and heavy ions; c) predict maximum energies and their duration; d) SEP composition; e) cosmic ray intensities, and f) plasma parameters, including shock arrival times, strength and obliquity at any given heliospheric location and time. The toolset would have a 72 hour predicative capability, with associated probabilistic bounds, that would be updated hourly thereafter to improve the predicted event(s) and reduce the associated probability bounds. The RISCS toolset would be highly adaptable and portable, capable of running on a variety of platforms to accommodate various operational needs and requirements.

Zank, G. P.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Development and Transition of the Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) Toolset

We outline a plan to develop and transition a physics based predictive toolset called The Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) to describe the interplanetary energetic particle and radiation environment throughout the inner heliosphere, including at the Earth. To forecast and "nowcast" the radiation environment requires the fusing of three components: 1) the ability to provide probabilities for incipient solar activity; 2) the use of these probabilities and daily coronal and solar wind observations to model the 3D spatial and temporal heliosphere, including magnetic field structure and transients, within 10 Astronomical Units; and 3) the ability to model the acceleration and transport of energetic particles based on current and anticipated coronal and heliospheric conditions. We describe how to address 1) - 3) based on our existing, well developed, and validated codes and models. The goal of RISCS toolset is to provide an operational forecast and "nowcast" capability that will a) predict solar energetic particle (SEP) intensities; b) spectra for protons and heavy ions; c) predict maximum energies and their duration; d) SEP composition; e) cosmic ray intensities, and f) plasma parameters, including shock arrival times, strength and obliquity at any given heliospheric location and time. The toolset would have a 72 hour predicative capability, with associated probabilistic bounds, that would be updated hourly thereafter to improve the predicted event(s) and reduce the associated probability bounds. The RISCS toolset would be highly adaptable and portable, capable of running on a variety of platforms to accommodate various operational needs and requirements. The described transition plan is based on a well established approach developed in the Earth Science discipline that ensures that the customer has a tool that meets their needs

Spann, James F.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Empirical model of atomic nitrogen in the upper thermosphere

Atomic nitrogen number densities in the upper thermosphere measured by the open source neutral mass spectrometer (OSS) on Atmosphere Explorer-C during 1974 and part of 1975 have been used to construct a global empirical model at an altitude of 375 km based on a spherical harmonic expansion. The most evident features of the model are large diurnal and seasonal variations of atomic nitrogen and only a moderate and latitude-dependent density increase during periods of geomagnetic activity. Maximum and minimum N number densities at 375 km for periods of low solar activity are 3.6 x 10 to the 6th/cu cm at 1500 LST (local solar time) and low latitude in the summer hemisphere and 1.5 x 10 to the 5th/cu cm at 0200 LST at mid-latitudes in the winter hemisphere.

Engebretson, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

A physical mechanism for the prediction of the sunspot number during solar cycle 21

On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 plus or minus 20. This estimate is considered to be a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance.

Schatten, K. H.↗
DOE OSTI2015

STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF THE 2012 NOVEMBER 13/14 ECLIPSE WHITE-LIGHT CORONA

Continuing our series of observations of coronal motion and dynamics over the solar-activity cycle, we observed from sites in Queensland, Australia, during the 2012 November 13 (UT)/14 (local time) total solar eclipse. The corona took the low-ellipticity shape typical of solar maximum (flattening index ε = 0.01), a change from the composite coronal images we observed and analyzed in this journal and elsewhere for the 2006 and 2008-2010 eclipses. After crossing the northeast Australian coast, the path of totality was over the ocean, so further totality was seen only by shipborne observers. Our results include velocities of a coronal mass ejection (CME; during the 36 minutes of passage from the Queensland coast to a ship north of New Zealand, we measured 413 km s{sup –1}) and we analyze its dynamics. We discuss the shapes and positions of several types of coronal features seen on our higher-resolution composite Queensland coronal images, including many helmet streamers, very faint bright and dark loops at the bases of helmet streamers, voids, and radially oriented thin streamers. We compare our eclipse observations with models of the magnetic field, confirming the validity of the predictions, and relate the eclipse phenomenology seen with the near-simultaneous images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/AIA), NASA's Extreme Ultraviolet Imager on Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, ESA/Royal Observatory of Belgium's Sun Watcher with Active Pixels and Image Processing (SWAP) on PROBA2, and Naval Research Laboratory's Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment on ESA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. For example, the southeastern CME is related to the solar flare whose origin we trace with a SWAP series of images.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improved Mars Upper Atmosphere Climatology

The detailed characterization of the Mars upper atmosphere is important for future Mars aerobraking activities. Solar cycle, seasonal, and dust trends (climate) as well as planetary wave activity (weather) are crucial to quantify in order to improve our ability to reasonably depict the state of the Mars upper atmosphere over time. To date, our best information is found in the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Accelerometer (ACC) database collected during Phase 1 (Ls = 184 - 300; F10.7 = 70 - 90) and Phase 2 (Ls = 30 - 90; F10.7 = 90 - 150) of aerobraking. This database (100 - 170 km) consists of thermospheric densities, temperatures, and scale heights, providing our best constraints for exercising the coupled Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) and the Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM). The Planetary Data System (PDS) contains level 0 and 2 MGS Accelerometer data, corresponding to atmospheric densities along the orbit track. Level 3 products (densities, temperatures, and scale heights at constant altitudes) are also available in the PDS. These datasets provide the primary model constraints for the new MGCM-MTGCM simulations summarized in this report. Our strategy for improving the characterization of the Mars upper atmospheres using these models has been three-fold : (a) to conduct data-model comparisons using the latest MGS data covering limited climatic and weather conditions at Mars, (b) to upgrade the 15-micron cooling and near-IR heating rates in the MGCM and MTGCM codes for ad- dressing climatic variations (solar cycle and seasonal) important in linking the lower and upper atmospheres (including migrating tides), and (c) to exercise the detailed coupled MGCM and MTGCM codes to capture and diagnose the planetary wave (migrating plus non-migrating tidal) features throughout the Mars year. Products from this new suite of MGCM-MTGCM coupled simulations are being used to improve our predictions of the structure of the Mars upper atmosphere for the upcoming MRO aerobraking exercises in 2006. A Michigan website, containing MTGCM output fields from previous climate simulations, is being expanded to include new MGCM-MTGCM simulations addressing planetary wave influences upon thermospheric aerobraking fields (densities and temperatures). In addition, similar MTGCM output fields have been supplied to the MSFC MARSGRAM - 200X empirical model, which will be used in mission operations for conducting aerobraking maneuvers.

Bougher, S. W.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Interpretation of solar irradiance monitor measurements through analysis of 3D MHD simulations

Measurements from the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on board the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment mission indicate that solar spectral irradiance at visible and IR wavelengths varies in counter phase with the solar activity cycle. The sign of these variations is not reproduced by most of the irradiance reconstruction techniques based on variations of surface magnetism employed so far, and it is not yet clear whether SIM calibration procedures need to be improved or if instead new physical mechanisms must be invoked to explain such variations. We employ three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the solar photosphere to investigate the dependence of solar radiance in SIM visible and IR spectral ranges on variations of the filling factor of surface magnetic fields. We find that the contribution of magnetic features to solar radiance is strongly dependent on the location on the disk of the features, which are negative close to disk center and positive toward the limb. If features are homogeneously distributed over a region around the equator (activity belt), then their contribution to irradiance is positive with respect to the contribution of HD snapshots, but decreases with the increase of their magnetic flux for average magnetic flux larger than 50 G in at least two of the visible and IR spectral bands monitored by SIM. Under the assumption that the 50 G snapshots are representative of quiet-Sun regions, we thus find that the Spectral Irradiance can be in counter-phase with the solar magnetic activity cycle.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

MULTI-WAVELENGTH STUDY OF A DELTA-SPOT. I. A REGION OF VERY STRONG, HORIZONTAL MAGNETIC FIELD

Active region NOAA 11035 appeared in 2009 December, early in the new solar activity cycle. This region achieved a delta sunspot (δ spot) configuration when parasitic flux emerged near the rotationally leading magnetic polarity and traveled through the penumbra of the largest sunspot in the group. Both visible and infrared imaging spectropolarimetry of the magnetically sensitive Fe i line pairs at 6302 and 15650 Å show large Zeeman splitting in the penumbra between the parasitic umbra and the main sunspot umbra. The polarized Stokes spectra in the strongest field region display anomalous profiles, and strong blueshifts are seen in an adjacent region. Analysis of the profiles is carried out using a Milne–Eddington inversion code capable of fitting either a single magnetic component with stray light or two independent magnetic components to verify the field strength. The inversion results show that the anomalous profiles cannot be produced by the combination of two profiles with moderate magnetic fields. The largest field strengths are 3500–3800 G in close proximity to blueshifts as strong as 3.8 km s{sup −1}. The strong, nearly horizontal magnetic field seen near the polarity inversion line in this region is difficult to understand in the context of a standard model of sunspot magnetohydrostatic equilibrium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

ACTIVE-REGION TILT ANGLES: MAGNETIC VERSUS WHITE-LIGHT DETERMINATIONS OF JOY'S LAW

The axes of solar active regions are inclined relative to the east-west direction, with the tilt angle tending to increase with latitude ({sup J}oy's law{sup )}. Observational determinations of Joy's law have been based either on white-light images of sunspot groups or on magnetograms, where the latter have the advantage of measuring directly the physically relevant quantity (the photospheric field), but the disadvantage of having been recorded routinely only since the mid-1960s. White-light studies employing the historical Mount Wilson (MW) database have yielded tilt angles that are smaller and that increase less steeply with latitude than those obtained from magnetic data. We confirm this effect by comparing sunspot-group tilt angles from the Debrecen Photoheliographic Database with measurements made by Li and Ulrich using MW magnetograms taken during cycles 21-23. Whether white-light or magnetic data are employed, the median tilt angles significantly exceed the mean values, and provide a better characterization of the observed distributions. The discrepancy between the white-light and magnetic results is found to have two main sources. First, a substantial fraction of the white-light ''tilt angles'' refer to sunspots of the same polarity. Of greater physical significance is that the magnetograph measurements include the contribution of plage areas, which are invisible in white-light images but tend to have greater axial inclinations than the adjacent sunspots. Given the large uncertainties inherent in both the white-light and the magnetic measurements, it remains unclear whether any systematic relationship exists between tilt angle and cycle amplitude during cycles 16-23.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Gravitational steady states of solar coronal loops

Coronal loops on the surface of the sun appear to consist of curved, plasma-confining magnetic flux tubes or “ropes,” anchored at both ends in the photosphere. Toroidal loops carrying current are inherently unstable to expansion in the major radius due to toroidal-curvature-induced imbalances in the magnetic and plasma pressures. An ideal MHD analysis of a simple isolated loop with density and pressure higher than the surrounding corona, based on the theory of magnetically confined toroidal plasmas, shows that the radial force balance depends on the loop internal structure and varies over parameter space. It provides a unified picture of simple loop steady states in terms of the plasma beta β o , the inverse aspect ratio ϵ = a/R o , and the MHD gravitational parameter $\hat{G}$ ≡ ga/v$2\atop{A}$, all at the top of the loop, where g is the acceleration due to gravity, a the average minor radius, and v A the shear Alfvén velocity. In the high and low beta tokamak orderings, β o = 2n o T/(B$2\atop{0}$/2μ o ) ~ ϵ 1 and ϵ 2 , that fit many loops, the solar gravity can sustain nonaxisymmetric steady states at $\hat{G}$ ~ ϵβ o that represent the maximum stable height. At smaller \hat{G} ≤ ϵ 2 β o , the loop is axisymmetric to leading order and stabilized primarily by the two fixed loop ends. Very low beta, nearly force-free, steady states with β o ~ ϵ 3 may also exist, with or without gravity, depending on higher order effects. The thin coronal loops commonly observed in solar active regions have ϵ ≃ 0.02 and fit the high beta steady states. $\hat{G}$ increases with loop height. Fatter loops in active regions that form along magnetic neutral lines and may lead to solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections have ϵ ≃ 0.1–0.2 and may fit the low beta ordering. Larger loops tend to have $\hat{G}$ > ϵβ o and be unstable to radial expansion because the exponential hydrostatic reduction in the density at the loop-top reduces the gravitational force -ρ$\hat{G}\hat{R}$ below the level that balances expansion, also in agreement with the observation that most sufficiently large loops grow.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Event-Driven Predictive Approach for Real-Time Volt/VAR control with CVR in solar PV rich Active Distribution Network

The focus of this paper is on analyzing the impact of conservation voltage reduction in the presence of active devices such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and developing controls that leverage these distributed energy resources. An event-driven predictive approach for real-time volt/volt-ampere reactive (VAR) optimization, along with local two-level adaptive volt/VAR droop-based control algorithm for advanced distribution management systems, is introduced. The methodology covers aggregated and autonomous controls under different timescale operations, including the impact and effect of unpredicted events such as cloud transients on PV power production. In addition, the control schemes include the uncertainties in PV power generation and load power demand. The proposed methodology is validated in a real-time framework using the real-time digital simulator platform through co-simulation with models based on Python and OpenDSS (Open Distribution System Simulator). The developed methodology is tested on the modified IEEE 123-feeder test system. The results reveal that the proposed methodology works well in the presence of high penetrations of PV power, produces significant energy savings, and mitigates over-/undervoltage problems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1977

Cosmic ray measurements on board Helios 1 from December 1974 to September 1975 Quiet time spectra, radial gradients, and solar events

The considered time period is characterized by a general decrease in solar activity towards a minimum which occurred in July 1976. The relatively quiet solar conditions facilitate the separation of the gradually varying galactic cosmic radiation from superimposed events of different characteristics. The inspection of neutron monitor data shows that the period is characterized by a slow increase of the high energy galactic cosmic radiation at a relatively constant rate. Attention is given to the instrumentation employed, intensity time profiles and preliminary radial gradients, and quiet time energy spectra. The solar particle events discussed include the January 5, 1976 event, the March 3, 1975 event, and the March 19/20, 1975 event.

Kunow, H.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Coronal activity below 2 solar radii - 1980 February 15-17

Coronal observations concerning the area between the solar surface and 2.0 solar radii can now be conducted by making use of a new ground-based K-coronameter and a prominence monitor on Mauna Loa in Hawaii. Observations made by the K-coronameter on three consecutive days surrounding the eclipse of 1980 February 16 show that the solar corona was very active during this time. Definite changes occurred between each day's observations. During one period of K-coronameter observations (1980 February 15) a coronal transient was observed to move through the coronameter's field of view. A description is presented of the general changes which occurred in the corona during this period, taking into account the coronal transient observed by the prominence monitor and K-coronameter. The most important aspects of these new observations pertain to the relationship between the H alpha prominence and the surrounding coronal material.

Fisher, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Role of solar flare index in long term modulation of cosmic ray intensity

Recently, the importance of the occurrence of solar flares in the long-term modulation of cosmic ray intensity has been re-emphasized. For this purpose, the data of solar flares have been used from various publications, such as Solar Geophysical Data books, U.A.G. reports and Quarterly Bulletin Of Solar Activity. Research very clearly reveals that even the periodic changes in the solar flare observations, obtained from the four different data sources, for the same interval, differ significantly from one another; this is evidenced even on an average basis. Hence, in any study using solar flares, the importance of selecting a single compilation of the solar-flare data for the entire period of investigation is stressed.

Pandey, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Ozone reduction in the 1980's - A model simulation of anthropogenic and solar perturbations

An interpretation of global ozone changes deduced from satellite data obtained since 1979 is presented, based on two-dimensional model simulations. The study shows that a depletion in total ozone of the order of 2 percent and a reduction in ozone density near 40 km of 7 to 12 percent over the 1979-1986 period are consistent with the observed increase in trace gas densities (chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide) and the simultaneous decrease in solar activity during this period. The model also suggests that ozone variations of solar and anthropogenic origins between 1979 and 1986 were of similar magnitude but that the ozone response to trace gas emissions increases substantially with latitude while the solar signal in ozone is present lower in the atmosphere and is nearly independent of latitude.

Brasseur, Guy↗
NASA NTRS1992

Low-energy solar electrons and ions observed at Ulysses February-April, 1991 - The inner heliosphere as a particle reservoir

Ulysses observations at 2.5 AU of 38-315 keV electrons and 61-4752 keV ions during February-April 1991 suggest in several ways that, during periods of sustained high solar activity, the inner heliosphere serves as a 'reservoir' for low-energy solar particles. Particle increases were not associated one-to-one with large X-ray flares because of their poor magnetic connection, yet intensities in March-April remained well above their February levels. The rise phase of the particle event associated with the great flare of 2245UT March 22 lasted most of two days, while throughout the one-week decay phase, the lowest-energy ion fluxes were nearly equal at Ulysses and earth (IMP-8).

Roelof, E. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Venus ionosphere from in situ measurements

The present characterization of the Venus ionosphere gives attention to features observed by the Pioneer Venus orbiter in situ ionospheric particle measuring instrument over an entire cycle of solar activity. A striking change is noted in the typical ionospheric morphology from solar maximum to minimum. The principal source of ionization in the dayside ionosphere during both solar maximum and minimum is solar EUV radiation, while that in the nightside is a downward flux of O(+) ions that originate in the dayside ionosphere and are transported across the nightside hemisphere by a supersonic ion wind. The dayside ionosphere contains fluxes of suprathermal electrons whose energy spectra are consistent with fluxes originating in EUV photo production.

Knudsen, William C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The solar wind interaction with Venus

The Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) mission has played a key role in establishing the nature of the solar wind interaction with Venus. Although earlier probes had determined that Venus presented an obstacle much smaller than the size of earth's magnetosphere to the solar wind, they did not carry out in situ measurements pertaining to solar wind interaction studies at low enough altitudes to determine why. They also did not provide datasets of sufficient duration to study the variability of the interaction of both short (one day) and long (solar cycle) timescales. The first 600 of the nearly 5000 orbits of PVO magnetometer data have been used to determine a very low upper limit on the intrinsic dipolar magnetic moment of Venus. The consequence of that low magnetic moment is that the solar wind interacts directly with the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Relative to a dipolar field obstacle, the ionospheric obstacle is rather incompressible. A bow shock is observed to stand in front of the nearly Venus-sized ionospheric obstacle at a comparatively steady subsolar altitude of approximately 1.5 R(v) (Venus radii). This shock decelerates the supersonic solar wind plasma so that it can flow around the obstacle. It was found to change its average position in the terminator plane from about 2.4 R(v) to 2.1 R(v) as the solar cycle progressed from the 1978 orbit insertion near solar maximum through the 1986-87 solar minimum, and back again during the latest solar activity increase. Between the bow shock and the ionosphere proper, the slowed solar wind plasma flow diverges near the subsolar point and makes its way across the terminator where it reaccelerates and continues anti-Sunward. The solar wind magnetic field, which is in effect frozen into the flowing plasma, is distorted in this 'magnetosheath' region so that it appears to hang up or drape over the dayside ionosphere before it slips around with the flow. These features of the solar wind interaction are also seen when the obstacle is a dipole magnetic field, but there are two important distinctions. In the wake of the Venus obstacle one finds an induced magnetic tail composed of varying interplanetary fields rather than the constant fields of intrinsic origin. This magnetotail is further seen to be populated by Heavy (0+) ions that are evidently escaping from the planet at significant (approximately 10(exp -25) s(exp -1)) rates. These heavy ions are also observed in the dayside magnetosheath. The interpretation is that ions are produced by both photoionization and solar wind electron impact ionization of the upper neutral atmosphere that extends into the magnetosheath.

Luthmann, J. G.↗