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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning–Assisted Multiobjective Optimization of Geological CO 2 Storage Performance under Geomechanical Risks

In geological CO 2 storage, designing the optimal well control strategy for CO 2 injection to maximize CO 2 storage while minimizing the associated geomechanical risks is not trivial. This challenge arises due to pressure buildup, CO 2 plume migration, the highly nonlinear nature of geomechanical responses to rock-fluid interaction, and the high computational cost associated with coupled flow and geomechanics simulations. In this paper, we introduce a novel optimization framework to address these challenges. The optimization problem is formulated as follows: maximize total CO 2 storage while minimizing geomechanical risks by adjusting the injection schedules within bounded constraints. The geomechanical risks are primarily driven by injection-induced pressure build-up, which is characterized by ground displacement and the induced microseismicity. We used the Fourier neural operator (FNO)-based deep learning model to construct surrogate models, replacing the time-consuming coupled flow and geomechanics simulations for evaluating the aforementioned objective functions. The developed surrogate models have been incorporated into a multiobjective optimization framework through a genetic algorithm to reduce the computational burden. The proposed optimization framework reduces the computational cost from approximately 2,400 hours, when using objective function evaluations based on physics-based simulations, to around 20 minutes. A set of Pareto-optimal solutions of the proposed workflow yields nontrivial optimal decisions, reducing the microseismicity potential and the vertical displacement. This Pareto front highlights the optimal trade-offs between CO 2 storage amount, safety, and ground displacement, emphasizing the need for careful optimization and management of injection strategies to achieve a balanced outcome. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating the minimization of the geomechanical risks as objective functions into the CO 2 storage optimization workflow to mitigate the potential risk of induced microseismicity and ground displacement. Second, we leverage the FNO-based surrogate models to optimize a real-field CO 2 storage operation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian optimization of laser wakefield acceleration via spectral pulse shaping

In this paper, we investigate the effect of spectral pulse shaping of the laser driver on the performance of channel-guided, laser–plasma accelerators. The study was carried out with the assistance of Bayesian optimization using particle-in-cell simulations. We used a realistic plasma profile based on a novel optical-field-ionized channel technique with ionization injection and low, on-axis plasma densities to maximize the energy gain of the electron bunch trailing the laser. Spectral shaping allows us to modify the temporal profile of the laser driver while keeping the laser energy constant, affecting the acceleration and injection processes. In addition, we consider how modifying the plasma channel parameters may affect the target outputs. Given the complexity and breadth of the parameter space in question, we used numerical optimization to identify high-performing configurations. In particular, we found laser profiles with additional spectral content that, when used with optimal plasma channel parameters, result in charge content an order of magnitude higher than the baseline Gaussian case while also increasing the mean energy of the electron bunch.

Physics - Plasma physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Reactive Force Field for Simulating Photoinitiated Acrylate Polymerization

Light-driven and photo-curable polymer based additive manufacturing (AM) has enormous potential due to its excellent resolution and precision. Acrylated radical chain-growth polymerized resins are widely used in photopolymer AM due to their fast kinetics, and often serve as a departure point for developing other resin materials for photopolymer-based AM technologies. For successful control of the photopolymer resins, the molecular basis of the acrylate free-radical polymerization has to be understood in detail. We present an optimized reactive force field (ReaxFF) for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of acrylate polymer resins that captures radical polymerization thermodynamics and kinetics. The force field is trained against an extensive training set including density functional theory (DFT) calculations of reaction pathways along the radical polymerization from methyl acrylate to methyl butyrate, bond dissociation energies, and structures and partial charges of several molecules and radicals. We also found that it was critical to train the force field against an incorrect, nonphysical reaction pathway observed in simulations that used parameters not optimized for acrylate polymerization. As a result, the parameterization process utilizes a parallelized search algorithm, and the resulting model can describe polymer resin formation, crosslinking density, conversion rate, and residual monomers of the complex acrylate mixtures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Designing a boron nitride polyethylene composite for shielding neutrons

Neutrons are encountered in many different fields, including condensed matter physics, space exploration, nuclear power, and healthcare. Neutrons interacting with a biological target produce secondary charged particles that are damaging to human health. The most effective way to shield neutrons is to slow them to thermal energies and then capture the thermalized neutrons. These factors lead us to consider potential materials solutions for neutron shields that maximize the protection of humans while minimizing the shield mass and adapt well to modern additive manufacturing techniques. Using hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) as a capture medium and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) as a thermalization medium, we aim to design the optimal internal structure of h 10 BN/HDPE composites by minimizing the effective dose, which is a measure of the estimated radiation damage exposure for a human. Through Monte Carlo simulations in Geant4, we find that the optimal structure reduces the effective dose up to a factor of 72 over aluminum (Al) and up to a factor of 4 over HDPE; this is a significant improvement in shielding effectiveness that could dramatically reduce the radiation exposure of occupational workers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Baseline Response of Silicon Strip Detectors and Comparison of Cost-Effective Amplifiers

Silicon strip detectors are a proven and more affordable technology. However, they are susceptible to high radiation damage. As part of the characterization of the effects of high radiation on silicon detectors, a baseline performance of these detectors under normal, low radiation conditions needs to be established. We did this by using an optimized setup and an infrared laser to simulate particle incidents. The detectors responded to applied bias voltage as expected. We then compared the performance of both economy amplifiers and an expensive amplifier as part of the optimized setup. For all intents and purposes, the economy amplifier worked just as well as the expensive amplifier.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Improved quantitative circuit model of realistic patch-based nanoantenna-enabled detectors

Improving the sensitivity of infrared detectors is an essential step for future applications, including satellite- and terrestrial-based systems. We investigate nanoantenna-enabled detectors (NEDs) in the infrared, where the nanoantenna arrays play a fundamental role in enhancing the level of absorption within the active material of a photodetector. The design and optimization of nanoantenna-enabled detectors via full-wave simulations is a challenging task given the large parameter space to be explored. Here, we present a fast and accurate fully analytic circuit model of patch-based NEDs. This model allows for the inclusion of real metals, realistic patch thicknesses, non-absorbing spacer layers, the active detector layer, and absorption due to higher-order evanescent modes of the metallic array. We apply the circuit model to the design of NED devices based on Type II superlattice absorbers, and show that we can achieve absorption of ~70% of the incoming energy in subwavelength (~λ/5) absorber layers. In conclusion, the accuracy of the circuit model is verified against full-wave simulations, establishing this model as an efficient design tool to quickly and accurately optimize NED structures.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Implementation of a High-Fidelity Interface Resolving Method in Nek5000

The development and utilization of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for large, high-temperature electric melters in the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) in eastern Washington State have proven to be valuable for various purposes. These models allow for a better understanding of the physio-chemical processes occurring within the melter vessels and can contribute to improving operational efficiency, throughput, and addressing operational issues related to vitrification. The CFD models employed for these melter vessels incorporate multiphase fluid flow and heat transfer simulations in different regions, including the plenum, cold cap, and molten glass regions. As the tank waste and glass formers are introduced into the melter, a reacting batch layer known as the cold cap forms on top of the molten glass. To enhance the melt rate, forced convection bubblers located at the bottom of the melters generate convection currents that help homogenize the molten glass and provide heat to the cold cap. As the bubbles rise through the highly viscous glass, they adopt a spherical-cap shape [1]. Meanwhile, the conversion of the batch to glass generates significant amounts of gases (such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and NOx) due to thermal decomposition [2]. These gases become trapped between the cold cap and molten glass, forming a foam layer [3]. For modeling multiphase flow in CFD and heat transfer simulations of waste glass melters at different scales, efforts are underway to augment the capabilities of the Nek5000 [4] and NekRS [5] open-source codes [6]. Nek5000/NekRS is a scalable and efficient spectral element code that has been successfully applied to a wide range of fluid dynamics problems. By leveraging the Nek5000/NekRS software, it becomes possible to model the melter systems more affordably and with lower computational requirements compared to currently utilized commercial CFD software. The specific objectives of this ongoing effort include: 1. Implementation of a level set method in Nek5000/NekRS: The level set method is a numerical technique commonly employed in CFD simulations to track and represent the interface between different phases or materials accurately. By incorporating this method into Nek5000/NekRS, the ability to simulate multiphase flows in waste glass melters at a high level of fidelity can be achieved. 2. Demonstration of capability for air bubbling through molten glass: As part of the development process, a specific case of air bubbling through molten glass will be simulated using the augmented Nek5000/NekRS code. This demonstration aims to showcase the ability of the software to accurately capture and analyze the complex phenomena involved in the multiphase flow within waste glass melters. By achieving these objectives, the improved Nek5000/NekRS code will offer a powerful computational tool for simulating and analyzing waste glass melter systems, enabling better understanding, optimization, and troubleshooting of these vitrification processes. The ability to accurately model and simulate multiphase flows has broad relevance across many industries and scientific domains, and the improved functionality can contribute to advancements in various fields beyond waste glass melter simulations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Practical Insights on Applying Simulation-Based Control Methods in Experimental Studies

Advanced nuclear reactors are crucial to the future of energy both in the United States and around the globe. In contrast to the current operating fleet, they are characterized as being deployable in remote locations and able to operate in semi-autonomous or autonomous fashion. This leap forward necessitates a new reactor control paradigm. Because advanced nuclear reactors are still under development in the United States, the creation of new control methods to achieve autonomous operations has been based on systems modeling and simulation. However, an important factor in successfully deploying these new control methods is the ability to seamlessly transition from simulation environments to real-world settings. Control methods tested in both simulation and experimental settings need to be investigated in the context of advanced reactor applications. This work developed a series of simple controllers for Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor operating in load-following scenarios. These controllers were tested in both simulation and experimental settings, and a comparative performance analysis was performed. The simulation tests leveraged the Control and Optimization Modular Modeling Application for Nuclear Deployment (COMMAND) software developed in a previous stage of the current effort, along with the MARVEL Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D) and Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) models. The experimental tests leveraged the COMMAND software, MARVEL models, and the U.S. Department of Energy Microreactor Program’s Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS). MACS was developed to serve as a control method testbed. It was customized to mirror the MARVEL microreactor, and COMMAND enabled MACS to emulate the physics of MARVEL. The load-following controller was developed using the simulation platform, with efforts to emulate real systems by introducing actuator saturation and noise. These factors were incrementally accounted for in the controller design. After finalizing the controller design, it was implemented with the experimental setup. The experimental conditions tested included an initial test under conditions similar to the final simulation test, and two additional scenarios. The first scenario introduced additional actuator saturation to account for equipment aging over time, which was unknown to the controller. The second scenario introduced sensor delay, a phenomenon anticipated with the use of remote operations or wireless communication in advanced reactors. These tests revealed several notable differences. While the controller performed well in simulation, it exhibited several limitations when transitioning to hardware. The main challenges involved maintaining the steady-state target power, as evidenced by larger error values between the true reactor power and setpoint power, as well as persistent oscillations in controlled reactor power. These issues could lead to unacceptable transient conditions in real reactor testing. Introducing actuator aging and stochastic delays in the experimental setup significantly impacted controller performance, resulting in increased overshoot and undershoot, and exacerbated error and oscillations previously mentioned. These findings underscore the importance of experimental testbeds for testing and validating control methods, as controllers developed using only theory and/or simulation may perform unexpectedly when applied to actual hardware. This research emphasizes the need for an experimental testbed for achieving such validation.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Visualizing an Exascale Data Center Digital Twin: Considerations, Challenges and Opportunities

Digital twins are an excellent tool to model, visualize, and simulate complex systems, to understand and optimize their operation. In this work, we present the technical challenges of real-time visualization of a digital twin of the Frontier supercomputer.We show the initial prototype and current state of the twin and highlight technical design challenges of visualizing such a large High Performance Computing (HPC) system. The goal is to understand the use of augmented reality as a primary way to extract information and collaborate on digital twins of complex systems. This leverages the spatio-temporal aspect of a 3D representation of a digital twin, with the ability to view historical and real-time telemetry, triggering simulations of a system state and viewing the results, which can be augmented via dashboards for details. Finally, we discuss considerations and opportunities for augmented reality of digital twins of large-scale, parallel computers.

Maiterth, Matthias↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of heating and cooling loads on battery energy storage system sizing in extreme cold climates

Efficient operation of battery energy storage systems requires that battery temperature remains within a specific range. Current techno-economic models neglect the parasitic loads heating and cooling operations have on these devices, assuming they operate at constant temperature. In this work, these effects are investigated considering the optimal sizing of battery energy storage systems when deployed in cold environments. Here, a peak shaving application is presented as a linear programming problem which is then formulated in the PYOMO optimization programming language. The building energy simulation software EnergyPlus is used to model the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning load of the battery energy storage system enclosure. Case studies are conducted for eight locations in the United States considering a nickel manganese cobalt oxide lithium ion battery type and whether the power conversion system is inside or outside the enclosure. The results show an increase of 42% to 300% in energy capacity size, 43% to 217% in power rating, and 43% to 296% increase in capital cost dependent on location. This analysis shows that the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning load can have a large impact on the optimal sizes and cost of a battery energy storage system and merit consideration in techno-economic studies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extreme Longitudinal Compression of Optimized Beams for MEV Ultrafast Electron Diffraction (Final Technical Report)

We worked out the design of a high repetition rate MeV energy ultrafast electron diffraction instrument based on the existing Cornell photoinjector, which can readily be applied to the presented findings. This example is a blueprint of other similarly arranged UED setups. Using particle tracking simulations in conjunction with multiobjective genetic algorithm optimization, we explored the smallest bunch lengths, emittance, and probe spot sizes achievable. As two limits, we defined stroboscopic conditions (with single electrons per pulse) and operation with 10 5 electrons per bunch which may be suitable for single-shot diffraction images. In the stroboscopic case, the flexibility provided by the many cavity bunching and acceleration allows for longitudinal phase space linearization without a higher harmonic field, providing sub-fs bunch lengths at the sample. Given low emittance photoemission conditions, these small bunch lengths can be maintained with probe transverse sizes at the single micron (1 μm) scale and below. In the case of 10 5 electrons per pulse, we simulated state-of-the-art 5D brightness conditions: rms bunch lengths of 10 fs with 3-nm normalized emittances, while permitting repetition rates as high as 1.3 GHz. We showed that in conjunction with collimating apertures, a novel focusing scheme achieves very high-quality emittance compensation for the central core of the beam composing 40% of particles, for a resulting beam size of 5 μm (rms). Finally, to aid in the design of new SRF-based ultrafast electron diffraction machines, we simulated the trade-off between the number of cavities used and achievable bunch length and emittance. In the longitudinal dimension, we made use of the fact that MeV UED requires much lower energy than the 15-MeV maxi mum energy of Cornell’s CBETA injector, and we may therefore use several of the SRF cavities for bunch length compression. In practice, we used a genetic optimization algorithm to choose the phases and amplitudes of the cavities appropriately for optimal bunching. In the zero space charge case, we found that bunching and acceleration are distributed across the six cavities in a way that produces a linearizing effect. And we showed that the ultimate bunch length can be limited by time-of-flight differences arising from transverse size and transverse momentum spread. The space charge code developed and used for this development is now permanent part of the Bmad accelerator simulation code and has already contributed to other developments, e.g., for the EIC electron cooler design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Toward Quantum Chemical Free Energy Simulations of Platinum Nanoparticles on Titania Support

Platinum nanoparticles (Pt-NPs) supported on titania surfaces are costly but indispensable heterogeneous catalysts because of their highly effective and selective catalytic properties. Therefore, it is vital to understand their physicochemical processes during catalysis to optimize their use and to further develop better catalysts. However, simulating these dynamic processes is challenging due to the need for a reliable quantum chemical method to describe chemical bond breaking and bond formation during the processes but, at the same time, fast enough to sample a large number of configurations required to compute the corresponding free energy surfaces. Density functional theory (DFT) is often used to explore Pt-NPs; nonetheless, it is usually limited to some minimum-energy reaction pathways on static potential energy surfaces because of its high computational cost. In this work, we report a combination of the density functional tight binding (DFTB) method as a fast but reliable approximation to DFT, the steered molecular dynamics (SMD) technique, and the Jarzynski equality to construct free energy surfaces of the temperature-dependent diffusion and growth of platinum particles on a titania surface. In particular, we present the parametrization for Pt-X (X = Pt, Ti, or O) interactions in the framework of the second-order DFTB method, using a previous parametrization for titania as a basis. The optimized parameter set was used to simulate the surface diffusion of a single platinum atom (Pt 1 ) and the growth of Pt 6 from Pt 5 and Pt 1 on the rutile (110) surface at three different temperatures (T = 400, 600, 800 K). The free energy profile was constructed by using over a hundred SMD trajectories for each process. We found that increasing the temperature has a minimal effect on the formation free energy; nevertheless, it significantly reduces the free energy barrier of Pt atom migration on the TiO 2 surface and the transition state (TS) of its deposition. In a concluding remark, the methodology opens the pathway to quantum chemical free energy simulations of Pt-NPs’ temperature-dependent growth and other transformation processes on the titania support.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

Convolutional neural networks on the HEALPix sphere: a pixel-based algorithm and its application to CMB data analysis

We describe a novel method for the application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to fields defined on the sphere, using the Hierarchical Equal Area Latitude Pixelization scheme (HEALPix). Specifically, we have developed a pixel-based approach to implement convolutional and pooling layers on the spherical surface, similarly to what is commonly done for CNNs applied to Euclidean space. The main advantage of our algorithm is to be fully integrable with existing, highly optimized libraries for NNs (e.g., PyTorch, TensorFlow, etc.). We present two applications of our method: (i) recognition of handwritten digits projected on the sphere; (ii) estimation of cosmological parameter from simulated maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The latter represents the main target of this exploratory work, whose goal is to show the applicability of our CNN to CMB parameter estimation. We have built a simple NN architecture, consisting of four convolutional and pooling layers, and we have used it for all the applications explored herein. Concerning the recognition of handwritten digits, our CNN reaches an accuracy of ~95%, comparable with other existing spherical CNNs, and this is true regardless of the position and orientation of the image on the sphere. For CMB-related applications, we tested the CNN on the estimation of a mock cosmological parameter, defining the angular scale at which the power spectrum of a Gaussian field projected on the sphere peaks. We estimated the value of this parameter directly from simulated maps, in several cases: temperature and polarization maps, presence of white noise, and partially covered maps. For temperature maps, the NN performances are comparable with those from standard spectrum-based Bayesian methods. For polarization, CNNs perform about a factor four worse than standard algorithms. Nonetheless, our results demonstrate, for the first time, that CNNs are able to extract information from polarization fields, both in full-sky and masked maps, and to distinguish between E and B -modes in pixel space. Lastly, we have applied our CNN to the estimation of the Thomson scattering optical depth at reionization ( τ ) from simulated CMB maps. Even without any specific optimization of the NN architecture, we reach an accuracy comparable with standard Bayesian methods. This work represents a first step towards the exploitation of NNs in CMB parameter estimation and demonstrates the feasibility of our approach.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wind Farm Layout Optimization with Loads Considerations

The objective of this paper is to improve the annual energy production of a wind farm by optimizing the layout of a wind farm, while considering fatigue loads on turbines. In this paper, the loads are estimated using the edgewise bending moment computed using CCBlade, a steady-state blade element momentum code. The edgewise bending moment is then used to calculate fatigue damage using Miner's rule. The fatigue damage is used to constrain the layout optimization problem. We show that our method can predict blade root damage with similar trends to damage calculated with other methods, such as a complex, computationally expensive large-eddy simulation and unsteady aeroelastic code. We also optimize wind farm layouts and show that, for a simple problem with two wind directions and ten turbines, the fatigue damage can be constrained without sacrificing wind farm power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A high-fidelity building performance simulation test bed for the development and evaluation of advanced controls

We present an open-source building performance simulation test bed, the Advanced Controls Test Bed (ACTB), that interfaces high-fidelity Spawn of EnergyPlus building models, with advanced controllers implemented in Python. Additionally, the ACTB leverages the Building Optimization Testing and Alfalfa platforms for managing simulations, providing an external clock, a representational state transfer (REST) application programming interface (API), and key performance indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of control strategies. The REST API allows the development of external controllers programmed in languages such as Python, which provides flexibility and a rich choice of scientific libraries for designing control sequences. We present three test cases based on the U.S. Department of Energy's Reference Small Office Building to demonstrate the ACTB's capabilities: (a) rule-based controls compliant with ASHRAE Guideline 36 control sequences; (b) an economic model predictive control implemented using do-mpc; and (c) a deep Q-network reinforcement learning agent implemented using OpenAI Gym.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Balancing Charging Station Utilization and Throughput in Electric Vehicle Charging Stations with Queuing Theory

The rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption demands enhancements in the efficiency and adaptability of EV supply equipment (EVSE). Traditional EVSE systems often fail to optimize power delivery to meet the variable acceptance rates of EV batteries, resulting in significant energy wastage and reduced operational efficiency. This research addresses these challenges by integrating queuing theory with modular EVSE architectures, offering a dual strategy to optimize the operation of EV charging stations. A simulation model was developed to assess various configurations of charger capacities and outlet numbers. This model aimed to identify the optimal setup that maximizes station utilization while minimizing charging times and maximizing throughput. The model focused on charger capacities ranging from 50 to 250 kW and analyzed the different capacities’ effects on charging times and the number of vehicles served. The results indicate that a charger capacity of 125 kW is optimal, striking a balance between the charging time and the number of EVs served per hour, thus achieving the highest station utilization rate. This capacity allows for servicing a significant number of EVs with moderate increases in charging times. Lower capacities, although capable of serving more vehicles, lead to longer charging times and decreased throughput efficiency. The study underscores the effectiveness of combining queuing theory with flexible, modular charging systems that can dynamically adjust to EV charging demands.

Kumar, Praveen↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Self Consistent 2D Simulation of Coherent Synchrotron Radiation Effects on Beam Dynamics

An increasing interest in high quality and high current electron beams necessitates a thorough understanding and prediction of coherent synchrotron radiation effects. The self-interaction of charged particles in a beam undergoing synchrotron motion is a physically significant process that is all too often computationally intensive with very little analytical results to rely on for the general case. The coherent spectrum of this interaction is of utmost importance to the design of free electron lasers (FELs) and an accurate assessment is imperative for their design. This work presents a novel implementation to the numerical simulation of charged particle beams. The simulation is a self-consistent approach including the self-fields generated by the beam of which coherent synchrotron radiation effects are of primary interest. A particle-in-cell model is used where a planar beam sampled by point particles is deposited on an encompassing grid at each timestep. The electromagnetic fields are calculated on the grid using the retarded potentials according to causality. The electromagnetic forces from the fields are interpolated on each particle which in turn advance in time. The simulation is benchmarked against well-established results for coherent synchrotron radiation effects. In addition, studies are provided that show the convergence of simulation results for increasing resolution. A study into the transverse beam size effects on beam dynamics is performed as well as a proof of concept where the simulation is used by a genetic algorithm to optimize the design parameters of a beam lattice. The results of these studies in tandem verify the efficacy of the simulation for its practical use in accelerator design or the study of synchrotron radiation effects

Duffin, Dallan [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA (U↗

DOE OSTI2020

Indicator Patterns of Forced Change Learned by an Artificial Neural Network

Abstract Many problems in climate science require the identification of signals obscured by both the “noise” of internal climate variability and differences across models. Following previous work, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the year of a given map of annual‐mean temperature (or precipitation) from forced climate model simulations. This prediction task requires the ANN to learn forced patterns of change amidst a background of climate noise and model differences. We then apply a neural network visualization technique (layerwise relevance propagation) to visualize the spatial patterns that lead the ANN to successfully predict the year. These spatial patterns thus serve as “reliable indicators” of the forced change. The architecture of the ANN is chosen such that these indicators vary in time, thus capturing the evolving nature of regional signals of change. Results are compared to those of more standard approaches like signal‐to‐noise ratios and multilinear regression in order to gain intuition about the reliable indicators identified by the ANN. We then apply an additional visualization tool (backward optimization) to highlight where disagreements in simulated and observed patterns of change are most important for the prediction of the year. This work demonstrates that ANNs and their visualization tools make a powerful pair for extracting climate patterns of forced change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗