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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Transport and chemistry of isoprene and its oxidation products in deep convective clouds

Deep convective clouds can transport trace gases from the planetary boundary layer into the upper troposphere where subsequent chemistry may impact aerosol particle formation and growth. In this modelling study, we investigate processes that affect isoprene and its oxidation products injected into the upper troposphere by an isolated deep convective cloud in the Amazon. We run a photochemical box model with coupled cloud microphysics along hundreds of individual air parcel trajectories sampled from a cloud-resolving model simulation of a convective event. The box model simulates gas-phase chemical reactions, gas scavenging by liquid and ice hydrometeors, and turbulent dilution inside a deep convective cloud. The results illustrate the potential importance of gas uptake to anvil ice in regulating the intensity of the isoprene oxidation and associated low volatility organic vapour concentrations in the outflow. Isoprene transport and fate also depends on the abundance of lightning-generated nitrogen oxide radicals (NO x = NO + NO 2 ). If gas uptake on ice is efficient and lightning activity is low, around 30% of the boundary layer isoprene will survive to the cloud outflow after approximately one hour of transport, while all the low volatile oxidation products will be scavenged by the cloud hydrometeors. If lightning NO x is abundant and gas uptake by ice is inefficient, then all isoprene will be oxidised during transport or in the immediate outflow region, while several low volatility isoprene oxidation products will have elevated concentrations in the cloud outflow. Reducing uncertainties associated with the uptake of vapours on ice hydrometeors, especially HO 2 and oxygenated organics, is essential to improve predictions of isoprene and its oxidation products in deep convective outflows and their potential contribution to new particle formation and growth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Experimental investigation of abnormal transverse flow enhancement of α particles in heavy-ion collisions

The mass dependence of the transverse flow for Z = 1–5 fragments from the collisions of 40 Ar + 27 Al, 40 Ar + 48 Ti, and 40 Ar + 58 Ni at 47 MeV/nucleon is investigated experimentally in this article. The transverse flow values are determined using the in-plane components of the fragment transverse momenta, where three conventional methods, i.e., the kinetic flow tensor method, the transverse momentum analysis method, and the azimuthal correlation method, are applied to reconstruct the reaction plane in an event-by-event basis. It is demonstrated from the comparison of the present experimental mass dependent flow measurements and the model simulations using an improved antisymmetrized molecular dynamics model that the experimentally observed abnormal α transverse flow enhancement is closely related to the reaction plane reconstruction procedure in the flow extraction. We further investigate the physical existence of the abnormal α flow behavior using a two-particle azimuthal correlation method, which allows us to provide the relative flow magnitude information with an identification of fragment charge number without the knowledge of the reaction plane differing from the three conventional methods. It is found that the relative flow magnitudes deduced from the two-particle azimuthal correlation functions with an identification of Z, with the correction for the recoil effect imposed by the momentum conservation, show a monotonically increasing trend as a function of fragment charge number, with no exception of the α flow enhancement. These results, in addition to those from the improved antisymmetrized molecular dynamics model simulations, definitely provide experimental evidences for the inexistence of the abnormal α flow behavior in the heavy-ion collisions at the present incident energy region in nature.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Biomedical systems analysis program

Biomedical monitoring programs which were developed to provide a system analysis context for a unified hypothesis for adaptation to space flight are presented and discussed. A real-time system of data analysis and decision making to assure the greatest possible crew safety and mission success is described. Information about man's abilities, limitations, and characteristic reactions to weightless space flight was analyzed and simulation models were developed. The predictive capabilities of simulation models for fluid-electrolyte regulation, erythropoiesis regulation, and calcium regulation are discussed.

Source record↗

A Mission to Observe Ice in Clouds from Space

To date there have been multiple satellite missions to observe and retrieve cloud top properties and the liquid in, and precipitation from, clouds. There are currently a few missions that attempt to measure cloud ice properties as a byproduct of other observations. However, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. This presentation will describe the Submillimeter-wave InfraRed Ice Cloud Experiment (SIRICE) concept, a satellite mission designed to acquire global Earth radiance measurements in the infrared and submillimeter-wave region (183-874 GHz). If successful, this mission will bridge the measurement gap between microwave sounders and shorter-wavelength infrared and visible sensors. The brightness temperatures at submillimeter-wave frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions of clouds, thus requiring only one term of the radiative transfer equation (ice scattering) to relate brightness temperatures to ice. Scientific justification and the SIRICE approach to measuring ice water path and particle size that span a range encompassing both the hydrologically active and radiatively active components of cloud systems will be presented.

Ackerman, S.↗

Observing Ice in Clouds from Space

There are many satellite observations of cloud top properties and the liquid and rain content of clouds, however, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds in the upper troposphere either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. These properties include cloud horizontal and vertical structure, cloud water content and some measure of particle sizes and shapes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. One barrier to achieving accurate global ice cloud properties is the lack of adequate observations at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths (183-874 GHz). Recent advances in instrumentation have allowed for the development and implementation of an airborne submillimeter-wave radiometer. The brightness temperatures at these frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions of clouds, thus requiring only one term of the radiative transfer equation (ice scattering) to relate brightness temperatures to ice. The next step is a satellite mission designed to acquire global Earth radiance measurements in the submillimeter-wave region, thus bridging the measurement gap between microwave sounders and shorter-wavelength infrared and visible sensors. This presentation provides scientific justification and an approach to measuring ice water path and particle size from a satellite platform that spans a range encompassing both the hydrologically active and radiatively active components of cloud systems.

Ackerman, S.↗

Employing a Modified Diffuser Momentum Model to Simulate Ventilation of the Orion CEV

The Ansys CFX CFD modeling tool was used to support the design efforts of the ventilation system for the Orion CEV. CFD modeling was used to establish the flow field within the cabin for several supply configurations. A mesh and turbulence model sensitivity study was performed before the design studies. Results were post-processed for comparison with performance requirements. Most configurations employed straight vaned diffusers to direct and throw the flow. To manage the size of the models, the diffuser vanes were not resolved. Instead, a momentum model was employed to account for the effect of the diffusers. The momentum model was tested against a separate, vane-resolved side study. Results are presented for a single diffuser configuration for a low supply flow case.

Straus, John↗

Modeling and Simulation of the Angel Upper Limb Offload Device: Branching Into New Methods

BACKGROUND: The Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) provides an analog environment for extravehicular activity (EVA) testing and training. Discomfort has been observed during longer suited test sessions. While the subject’s core is offloaded during surface EVA evaluations, his/her arms experience full Earth gravity and can become overly fatigued, especially during suited tests which involve reaching and prolonged arm extensions. A device (ARGOS Negation of Gravitational Effects on the Limbs: ANGEL) to offload the weight of the arms and suit sleeves is being developed by JSC’s Flight Systems Branch of the Software, Robotics, and Simulation Division. Previously we have shared preliminary modeling of that device and kinematics based on motion capture data. Here we present an alternative approach to determine device kinematics by calculating ANGEL component angles with an OpenSim plugin. We compare calculated angles to inverse kinematics (IK) derived ones with the goal of validating the model. This new method can be further informative for device design and analytically testing different configurations to achieve desired reduced gravity conditions (e.g., lunar gravity (Lg) or Martian gravity (Mg)). We have compared calculated angles with IK-derived angles in tests with a shirt-sleeve subject positioned in a test stand with a Mark-III Hard Upper Torso (HUT) and Portable Life Support System (PLSS) mockup and arm weights to emulate the weight of the suit sleeve as well as a suited subject in ARGOS with a Mark-III suit. A variety of upper body tasks were completed in the former and full-body tasks in the latter. METHODS AND RESULTS: To model the offload device, we augment the OpenSim human model topology with the offload mechanism components and joints, using CAD models to represent the mechanism graphically. The joint angles of the device are calculated in the OpenSim plugin by modeling how the components configure themselves under the offloading spring tension given a particular IK-derived arm position. There are four ANGEL components with a total of 5 degrees of freedom (DOFs), each component has a single DOF except for the cuff which is modeled as 2 DOFs. The sickle/yaw bracket and cuff rotation angles are determined statically based on the assumptions that the sickle will track the attachment point of the cuff and that the cuff will rotate such that the attachment point is at its highest point. The cuff tilt, linker and V-bracket angles are then determined by optimizing their positions to approach a mechanical equilibrium. The calculated linker angle is compared to three different methods of determining the linker line-of-force kinematically (from V-bracket to center-cuff, cuff highest point or marker-derived position). Given the joint angles of the device, the spring force and resulting force on the arm is computed by the plugin and applied as an external load in inverse dynamics (ID) to enable study of overall shoulder joint torques as well as offload achieved. We verify the calculated joint angles by using the inverse kinematic data. The average difference in angles is the smallest for the V-bracket and linker, around 1 to 5 degrees for most trials. The resulting offload and shoulder torque are comparable between calculated and IK-derived angles. In summary, we have developed a method to calculate the joint angles of an exoskeleton-like upper limb offloading device currently in development. We have also developed a custom plugin which will be a valuable tool to optimize device configurations for a desired gravitational environment, probe the offload achieved for motions recorded outside of our test suite, and inform future design improvements.

L B Nilsson↗

Modeling and Simulation of The Angel Upper Limb Offload Device: Branching into New Methods

BACKGROUND: The Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) provides an analog environment for extravehicular activity (EVA) testing and training. Discomfort has been observed during longer suited test sessions. While the subject’s core is offloaded during surface EVA evaluations, his/her arms experience full Earth gravity and can become overly fatigued, especially during suited tests which involve reaching and prolonged arm extensions. A device (ARGOS Negation of Gravitational Effects on the Limbs: ANGEL) to offload the weight of the arms and suit sleeves is being developed by JSC’s Flight Systems Branch of the Software, Robotics, and Simulation Division. Previously we have shared preliminary modeling of that device and kinematics based on motion capture data. Here we present an alternative approach to determine device kinematics by calculating ANGEL component angles with an OpenSim plugin. We compare calculated angles to inverse kinematics (IK) derived ones with the goal of validating the model. This new method can be further informative for device design and analytically testing different configurations to achieve desired reduced gravity conditions (e.g., lunar gravity (Lg) or Martian gravity (Mg)). We have compared calculated angles with IK-derived angles in tests with a shirt-sleeve subject positioned in a test stand with a Mark-III Hard Upper Torso (HUT) and Portable Life Support System (PLSS) mockup and arm weights to emulate the weight of the suit sleeve as well as a suited subject in ARGOS with a Mark-III suit. A variety of upper body tasks were completed in the former and full-body tasks in the latter. METHODS AND RESULTS: To model the offload device, we augment the OpenSim human model topology with the offload mechanism components and joints, using CAD models to represent the mechanism graphically. The joint angles of the device are calculated in the OpenSim plugin by modeling how the components configure themselves under the offloading spring tension given a particular IK-derived arm position. There are four ANGEL components with a total of 5 degrees of freedom (DOFs), each component has a single DOF except for the cuff which is modeled as 2 DOFs. The sickle/yaw bracket and cuff rotation angles are determined statically based on the assumptions that the sickle will track the attachment point of the cuff and that the cuff will rotate such that the attachment point is at its highest point. The cuff tilt, linker and V-bracket angles are then determined by optimizing their positions to approach a mechanical equilibrium. The calculated linker angle is compared to three different methods of determining the linker line-of-force kinematically (from V-bracket to center-cuff, cuff highest point or marker-derived position). Given the joint angles of the device, the spring force and resulting force on the arm is computed by the plugin and applied as an external load in inverse dynamics (ID) to enable study of overall shoulder joint torques as well as offload achieved. We verify the calculated joint angles by using the inverse kinematic data. The average difference in angles is the smallest for the V-bracket and linker, around 1 to 5 degrees for most trials. The resulting offload and shoulder torque are comparable between calculated and IK-derived angles. In summary, we have developed a method to calculate the joint angles of an exoskeleton-like upper limb offloading device currently in development. We have also developed a custom plugin which will be a valuable tool to optimize device configurations for a desired gravitational environment, probe the offload achieved for motions recorded outside of our test suite, and inform future design improvements.

L B Nilsson↗

PYOED: AN ETENSIBLE SUITE FOR DATA ASSIMILATION AND MODEL-CONSTRAINED OPTIMAL DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS

SF-23-005 PyOED is a highly extensible scientific package that enables developing and testing model-constrained optimal experimental design (OED) for inverse problems. Specifically, PyOED aims to be a comprehensive Python toolkit for model-constrained OED. The package targets scientists and researchers interested in understanding the details of OED formulations and approaches. It is also meant to enable researchers to experiment with standard and innovative OED technologies with a wide range of test problems (e.g., simulation models). OED, inverse problems (e.g., Bayesian inversion), and data assimilation (DA) are closely related research fields, and their formulations overlap significantly. Thus, PyOED is continuously being expanded with a plethora of Bayesian inversion, DA, and OED methods as well as new scientific simulation models, observation error models, and observation operators. These pieces are added such that they can be permuted to enable testing OED methods in various settings of varying complexities. The PyOED core is completely written in Python and utilizes the inherent object-oriented capabilities; however, PyOED is meant to be extensible rather than scalable. Specifically, PyOED is developed to ``enable rapid development and benchmarking of OED methods with minimal coding effort and to maximize code reutilization.'' PyOED will be continuously expanded with a plethora of Bayesian inversion, DA, and OED methods as well as new scientific simulation models, observation error models, and observation operators.

ATTIA, AHMEDMOHAMED↗

Dynamic modelling and simulation study for the Galileo spacecraft pulsed-mode spinup/400 N main engine burn/spindown maneuvers

Two Galileo dynamic models were developed to simulate the spinup, the main engine burn and the spindown maneuvers for the critical events of the Jupiter orbit insertion and perijove raise maneuver. The dynamic interaction between the spin thruster pulsing frequency, the science magnetometer boom flexible modes and the propellant slosh modes were studied. The prediction of safe orbit insertion was validated in flight. For the perijove raise maneuver, the simulation results indicated that propellant unporting would occur if the original spin thruster duty cycle was not updated. Based on further simulation results, a new duty cycle was selected to prevent propellant unporting. Subsequent Galileo flight data indicated that the perijove raise maneuver was successfully executed.

Ih, Che-Hang Charles↗

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation Study for the Galileo Spacecraft Pulsed-Mode Spinup/400 N Main Engine Burn/Spindown Maneuvers

Two Galileo dynamic models were developed to simulate the spinup/400-N main engine burn/spindown maneuvers for the critical events of Jupiter Orbit Insertion (JOI) and Perijove Raise Maneuver (PRM). The dynamic interaction among the spin thruster pulsing frequency science/magnetometer (SCI/MAG) boom flexible modes, and the propellant slosh modes were studied.

Galileo orbit insertion planetary spacecraft↗

Next Generation Co-Molded One-Piece Automotive Parts

The purpose of this project was to determine the feasibility of co-molding Class A Sheet Molding Compound (SMC), structural SMC, and continuous fiber prepreg materials to produce a single piece co-molded automotive part, such as a hood. The combination of the three molding materials and the incorporation of selective design features (ribs, flanges, corrugations) was expected to eliminate the need for inner reinforcement panels, significantly reducing tooling costs and simplifying the manufacturing process. A multi-material solution would also result in significant weight savings. The scope of this project included the material characterization of the three materials, development of cure and flow simulation models, and validation of the models against parts molded with different combinations of the materials on an 11”x11” plaque tool with rib features. The intent of this project was to apply the learnings obtained from co-molding a part with simplified geometry to a Phase 2 project that would produce a single piece hood, co-molded with the same materials. Resins from INEOS Composites were provided to IDI to produce SMC and continuous fiber prepregs. Purdue University and INEOS Composites characterized the rheological and curing behavior of the different materials as well as the mechanical properties of the co-molded parts. This data was used by Purdue University to create simulation models. Models were created to predict both flow patterns and predict mechanical properties of different laminate constructions in and around the ribs. Michigan State University - Corktown validated Purdue’s models by co-molding the three materials in different combinations on a tool containing rib features provided by Century Tool. The co-molded parts were evaluated against the simulation models by Purdue, Corktown and INEOS. The project team demonstrated the following: • The ability to obtain a cohesive co-molded structure made up of Class A SMC, Structural SMC, and continuous fiber prepreg. • The ability to obtain a co-molded part with a Class A surface • Modeling of flow and fiber orientation • Modeling to predict mechanical properties of multi-material co-molded structures The predicted flow behavior and fiber orientation from simulations were then compared with the molded samples. Exact local orientation state was difficult to compare between microscopy and flow simulation, but captured general trends. Multi-material flow behavior was generally modeled well with SMC materials, but the introduction of woven material sheets requires further model development. Purdue compared the predicted versus actual mechanical properties, and INEOS Composites evaluated the surface appearance of unpainted and painted co-molded parts. The models developed by Purdue demonstrated that the mechanical properties can be predicted for parts with varying material configurations. The resulting models can be applied to future co-molded part design, tooling design, and molding conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗

Evaluation of a High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Model’s Simulated Clouds Using Observations from CloudSat, GOES-13 and in Situ Aircraft

This study aimed to assess tropical cloud properties predicted by Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM)modelwhen run with the Milbrandt–Yau double-moment cloud microphysical scheme and one-way nesting that culminated at a (∼300 km)2 inner domain with 0.25 km horizontal grid spacing. The assessment utilized satellite and in situ data collected during the High Ice Water Content (HIWC) and High Altitude Ice Crystals (HAIC) projects for a mesoscale convective system on 16May 2015 over French Guiana.Data fromCloud- Sat’s cloud-profiling radar and GOES-13’s imager were compared to data either simulated directly by GEM or produced by operating on GEM’s cloud data with both the CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) instrument simulator and a three-dimensional Monte Carlo solar radiative transfer model. In situ observations were made from research aircraft – Canada’s National Research Council Convair-580 and the French SAFIRE Falcon-20 – whose flight paths were aligned with CloudSat’s ground-track. Spatial and temporal shifts of clouds simulated by GEM compared well to GOES-13 imagery. There are, however, differences between simulated and observed amounts of high and low cloud. While GEM did well at predicting ranges of ice-water content (IWC) near 11 km altitude (Falcon-20), it produces too much graupel and snow near 7 km (Convair-580). This produced large differences between CloudSat’s and COSP-generated radar reflectivities and two-way attenuations. On the other hand, CloudSat’s inferred values of IWC agree well with in situ samples at both altitudes. Generally, GEM’s visible reflectances exceeded GOES-13’s on account of having produced too much low-level liquid cloud. It is expected that GEM’s disproportioning of cloud hydrometeors will improve once it includes a better representation of secondary ice production.

Qu, Zhipeng↗

Propulsion System Modeling and Simulation

The Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at the School of Aerospace Engineering in Georgia Institute of Technology has developed a core competency that enables propulsion technology managers to make technology investment decisions substantiated by propulsion and airframe technology system studies. This method assists the designer/manager in selecting appropriate technology concepts while accounting for the presence of risk and uncertainty as well as interactions between disciplines. This capability is incorporated into a single design simulation system that is described in this paper. This propulsion system design environment is created with a commercially available software called iSIGHT, which is a generic computational framework, and with analysis programs for engine cycle, engine flowpath, mission, and economic analyses. iSIGHT is used to integrate these analysis tools within a single computer platform and facilitate information transfer amongst the various codes. The resulting modeling and simulation (M&S) environment in conjunction with the response surface method provides the designer/decision-maker an analytical means to examine the entire design space from either a subsystem and/or system perspective. The results of this paper will enable managers to analytically play what-if games to gain insight in to the benefits (and/or degradation) of changing engine cycle design parameters. Furthermore, the propulsion design space will be explored probabilistically to show the feasibility and viability of the propulsion system integrated with a vehicle.

Tai, Jimmy C. M.↗

Simulations of Dynamics and Transport during the September 2002 Antarctic Major Warming

A mechanistic model simulation initialized on 14 September 2002, forced by 100-hPa geopotential heights from Met Office analyses, reproduced the dynamical features of the 2002 Antarctic major warming. The vortex split on approx.25 September; recovery after the warming, westward and equatorward tilting vortices, and strong baroclinic zones in temperature associated with a dipole pattern of upward and downward vertical velocities were all captured in the simulation. Model results and analyses show a pattern of strong upward wave propagation throughout the warming, with zonal wind deceleration throughout the stratosphere at high latitudes before the vortex split, continuing in the middle and upper stratosphere and spreading to lower latitudes after the split. Three-dimensional Eliassen-Palm fluxes show the largest upward and poleward wave propagation in the 0(deg)-90(deg)E sector prior to the vortex split (coincident with the location of strongest cyclogenesis at the model's lower boundary), with an additional region of strong upward propagation developing near 180(deg)-270(deg)E. These characteristics are similar to those of Arctic wave-2 major warmings, except that during this warming, the vortex did not split below approx.600 K. The effects of poleward transport and mixing dominate modeled trace gas evolution through most of the mid- to high-latitude stratosphere, with a core region in the lower-stratospheric vortex where enhanced descent dominates and the vortex remains isolated. Strongly tilted vortices led to low-latitude air overlying vortex air, resulting in highly unusual trace gas profiles. Simulations driven with several meteorological datasets reproduced the major warming, but in others, stronger latitudinal gradients at high latitudes at the model boundary resulted in simulations without a complete vortex split in the midstratosphere. Numerous tests indicate very high sensitivity to the boundary fields, especially the wave-2 amplitude. Major warmings occurred for initial fields with stronger winds and larger vortices, but not smaller vortices, consistent with the initiation of wind-deceleration by upward-propagating waves near the poleward edge of the region where wave 2 can propagate above the jet core. Thus, given the observed 100-hPa boundary forcing, stratospheric preconditioning is not needed to reproduce a major warming similar to that observed. The anomalously strong forcing in the lower stratosphere can be viewed as the primary direct cause of the major warming.

winds↗