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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,171 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Exponential acceleration of macroscopic quantum tunneling in a Floquet Ising model

The exponential suppression of macroscopic quantum tunneling (MQT) in the number of elements to be reconfigured is an essential element of broken symmetry phases. This suppression is also a core bottleneck in quantum algorithms, such as traversing an energy landscape in optimization, and adiabatic state preparation more generally. In this work, we demonstrate exponential acceleration of MQT through Floquet engineering with the application of a uniform, high frequency transverse drive field. Using the ferromagnetic phase of the transverse field Ising model in one and two dimensions as a prototypical example, we identify three phenomenological regimes as a function of drive strength. For weak drives, the system exhibits exponentially decaying tunneling rates but robust magnetic order; in the crossover regime at intermediate drive strength, we find polynomial decay of tunnelling alongside vanishing magnetic order; and at very strong drive strengths both the Rabi frequency and time-averaged magnetic order are approximately constant with increasing system size. We support these claims with extensive full wavefunction and tensor network numerical simulations, and theoretical analysis. An experimental test of these results presents a technologically important and novel scientific question accessible on NISQ-era quantum computers.

Grattan, George↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data driven investigation to understand the influence of total solids on biological biogas upgrading

In situ biogas upgrading achieves CO 2 conversion to CH 4 via hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis; however, gas-liquid mass transfer constraints limit the upgrading performance. Recognizing that optimization studies often underrepresent the effects of total solids (TS) and organic loading rate (OLR), this study undertook a holistic, statistics driven assessment of operating conditions for in situ H 2 assisted biogas upgrading, centering the analysis on TS and OLR. A dataset of 31 studies was compiled and comprised 99 observations. A rigorous analytical framework was employed, combining data standardization, fixed- and random-effects (REML) weighted regressions with cluster-robust errors, stratified analyses, and machine learning. Mixed-effects meta regression indicated that TS was the main factor explaining differences of methane fraction (CH 4 %) when considering the between studies heterogeneity. Focusing on a near-stoichiometric subset (H 2 /CO 2 ≈ 4:1), TS remained significant. Stratified results showed a stronger negative relationship between TS and CH 4 % in UASB reactors than in CSTRs, with a negative effect under mesophilic conditions and no significant effect under thermophilic conditions. A Random Forest model corroborated the statistical findings, consistently ranking H 2 /CO 2 ratio, OLR, TS, and hydrogen injection rate (HIR) as the most influential predictors. These findings delineate trends across increasing TS levels, particularly between 1% and 10%, and provide preliminary insights for TS above 15% in in situ biogas upgrading. They further provide insights for the influence of TS by reactor type and temperature, thereby advancing the evidence base for implementing biological CO 2 conversion to CH 4 in practice.

In situ biogas upgrading↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

IDAES-PSE 2.0 Release

The Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) Integrated Platform is a versatile computational environment offering extensive process systems engineering (PSE) capabilities for optimizing the design and operation of complex, interacting technologies and systems. IDAES enables users to efficiently search vast, complex design spaces to discover the lowest cost, most environmentally sustainable solutions while supporting the full process modeling lifecycle, from conceptual design to dynamic optimization and control. The extensible, open platform empowers users to create models of novel processes and rapidly develop custom analyses, workflows, and end-user applications. IDAES-PSE 2.0.0 Release Highlights Removal of deprecated features from IDAES v1 Update to Pyomo v6.5 – this required a number of updates to support the new NL solver writer and to address some changes in Pyomo Creation of new testing suite for backward compatibility, model robustness and verification More general implementation of the Helmholtz EoS. This brings some new features like standard property diagrams, choice of mass or mole basis, and new state variable options Standardizing names in Heat Exchanger models (breaking change from v2.0.0a2): Control Volumes named hot_side and cold_side Ports names hot_side_inlet, hot_side_outlet, cold_side_inlet and cold_side_outlet Config Blocks names hot_side_config and cold_side_config Config arguments for user provided names for each side: hot_side_name and cold_side_name. Updating Keras surrogate tool to use v1.1 of OMLT New prototype API for model initialization (idaes.core.initialization) The new API uses "Model Initializer" objects instead of class methods, allowing for the definition of multiple initialization routines for a single model A number of common, model agnostic initialization routines have also been defined, including initialization from data, block-decomposition and a general hierarchical approach equivalent to the existing method for common unit models New metadata for thermophysical properties – valid_range This can be used to record the range of values over which a property value can be trusted, such as the range of experimental data used to regress parameters A number of new utility functions have been added to check for properties with values outside the valid range and to set bounds based on this metadata Updated construction of balance expressions in Control Volumes to remove unneeded terms In the past, unneeded terms were added as a constant 0 term, however they will now be dropped entirely from the expression This was necessary due to more strict unit checking in the new Pyomo solver writer which no longer ignores 0 terms Updates to metadata for thermophysical properties to better define known properties and units of measurement This results in more strict enforcement of standard naming for thermophysical and reaction properties Users can still define custom properties, but these must be done explicitly using the define_custom_properties() method instead of being implicitly created by add_property() Updated convergence tester utility tool to support definition of benchmark files (JSON format) and comparison of performance to benchmarks Set default iteration limit for IPOPT in IDAES config to 200 iterations Update scaling of example models to work with new Pyomo NL solver writer Improve testing of extensions and examples infrastructure to avoid need for downloading files Updated distillation column to centralize common functionality and remove a number of Pyomo warnings

IDAES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Solution-Processed Electrolyte Membranes with Optimized Microstructure for High-Performance Protonic Ceramic Electrochemical Cells

Proton-conducting electrochemical cells (PCECs) are promising for efficient hydrogen production, but achieving dense, uniform, thin electrolyte layers remains a key challenge, particularly for scalable fabrication. Here, we present a solution-processed deposition approach with a mechanistically optimized slurry for uniform electrolyte formation. By tailoring particle size distribution, solid loading, and solvent/additive balance, we regulated wetting behavior and evaporation kinetics of the electrolyte slurry to promote homogeneous electrolyte particle packing. These features facilitate tight grain boundary contact and early stage neck growth during sintering, eliminating residual porosity, and improving mechanical integrity. The resulting ∼15 μm thick electrolyte shows high density, strong electrode adhesion, and stable interfaces outperforming the previously reported spray-based fabricated electrolyte by about 31% at 600 °C in FC mode. Single cells deliver 0.962 W cm –2 at 600 °C in fuel cell mode and 1.31 A cm –2 at 1.3 V in electrolysis mode, maintaining robust performance over 100 h with negligible degradation (≤0.02% h –1 ) in each mode. Scale-up to 2.5 cm diameter substrates confirmed reproducible densification and geometric stability. This work demonstrates a cost-effective, scalable route where control over particle-fluid interactions and drying dynamics enables a superior electrolyte microstructure and high PCEC performance.

dense microstructure↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data driven learning of robust nonlocal models

Nonlocal models use integral operators that embed length-scales in their definition. However, the integrands in these operators are difficult to define from the data that are typically available for a given physical system, such as laboratory mechanical property tests. In contrast, molecular dynamics (MD) does not require these integrands, but it suffers from computational limitations in the length and time scales it can address. To combine the strengths of both methods and to obtain a coarse-grained, homogenized continuum model that efficiently and accurately captures materials' behavior, we propose a learning framework to extract, from MD data, an optimal nonlocal model as a surrogate for MD displacements. Our framework guarantees that the resulting model is mathematically well-posed, physically consistent, and that it generalizes well to settings that are different from the ones used during training. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated with several numerical tests for single layer graphene both in the case of perfect crystal and in the presence of thermal noise.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid eigensolvers for nuclear configuration interaction calculations

We examine and compare several iterative methods for solving large-scale eigenvalue problems arising from nuclear structure calculations. In particular, we discuss the possibility of using block Lanczos method, a Chebyshev filtering based subspace iterations and the residual minimization method accelerated by direct inversion of iterative subspace (RMM-DIIS) and describe how these algorithms compare with the standard Lanczos algorithm and the locally optimal block preconditioned conjugate gradient (LOBPCG) algorithm. Although the RMM-DIIS method does not exhibit rapid convergence when the initial approximations to the desired eigenvectors are not sufficiently accurate, it can be effectively combined with either the block Lanczos or the LOBPCG method to yield a hybrid eigensolver that has several desirable properties. We will describe a few practical issues that need to be addressed to make the hybrid solver efficient and robust.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

ChemPren: a new and economical technology for conversion of waste plastics to light olefins

With the ever-increasing demand for plastics, sustainable recycling methods are key necessities. Here, the current plastics industry can manage to recycle only 10% of the 400 million metric tons of plastic produced globally. Waste plastics, in the current infrastructure, land up mostly in landfills. Although a lot of research efforts have been spent on processing and recycling co-mingled mixed plastics, energy-efficient sustainable and scalable routes for plastic upcycling are still lacking. Catalytic valorization of waste plastic feedstock is one of the potential scalable routes for plastic upcycling. Silica-alumina based materials, and zeolites have shown a lot of promise. A major interest lies in restricting catalyst deactivation, and refining product selectivity and yield for such catalytic processes. This article highlights ChemPren technology as a clean energy solution to waste plastic recycling. Co-mingled, mixed plastic feedstock along with spray dried, attrition resistant, ZSM-5 containing catalysts is preprocessed with an extruder to form optimally sized particles and fed into a fluidized bed reactor for short contact times to produce selectively and in high yields ethylenes, propylenes and butylenes. This techno-economic perspective indicates that the ChemPren technology can produce propylene at $\$$0.16 per lb, whereas the current selling price of virgin propylene is $0.54 per lb. This technology can serve as a platform for mixed plastic upcycling, with more advancements necessary in the form of robust and resilient catalysts and reactor operation strategies for tuning product selectivity.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmological constraints from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using the MagLim lens sample

The cosmological information extracted from photometric surveys is most robust when multiple probes of the large scale structure of the Universe are used. Two of the most sensitive probes are the clustering of galaxies and the tangential shear of background galaxy shapes produced by those foreground galaxies, so-called galaxy-galaxy lensing. Combining the measurements of these two two-point functions leads to cosmological constraints that are independent of the way galaxies trace matter (the galaxy bias factor). The optimal choice of foreground, or lens, galaxies is governed by the joint, but conflicting requirements to obtain accurate redshift information and large statistics. We present cosmological results from the full 5000 deg 2 of the Dark Energy Survey’s first three years of observations (Y3) combining those two-point functions, using for the first time a magnitude-limited lens sample (MagLim) of 11 million galaxies, especially selected to optimize such combination, and 100 million background shapes. We consider two flat cosmological models, the Standard Model with dark energy and cold dark matter ( Λ CDM ) a variation with a free parameter for the dark energy equation of state ( w CDM ). Both models are marginalized over 25 astrophysical and systematic nuisance parameters. In Λ CDM we obtain for the matter density Ω m = 0.320 - 0.034 + 0.041 and for the clustering amplitude S 8 ≡ σ 8 ( Ω m / 0.3 ) 0.5 = 0.778 - 0.031 + 0.037 , at 68% C.L. The latter is only 1 σ smaller than the prediction in this model informed by measurements of the cosmic microwave background by the Planck satellite. In w CDM we find Ω m = 0.32 - 0.046 + 0.044 , S 8 = 0.777 - 0.051 + 0.049 and dark energy equation of state w = - 1.031 - 0.379 + 0.218 . We find that including smaller scales, while marginalizing over nonlinear galaxy bias, improves the constraining power in the Ω m - S 8 plane by 31% and in the Ω m - w plane by 41% while yielding consistent cosmological parameters from those in the linear bias case. These results are combined with those from cosmic shear in a companion paper to present full DES-Y3 constraints from the three two-point functions ( 3 × 2 pt ).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the ASME Section III, Division 5, Class A Primary Load Design Rules Against Creep Notch Effects

This report assesses the ASME Section III, Division 5, Subsection HB, Subpart B rules covering the design and construction of high temperature Class A nuclear reactor components for their robustness against creep notch effects. The creep notch effect combines the effect of multiaxial stresses on material creep deformation and damage. This report considers both effects, including the potential for creep mechanism shifts affecting the extrapolation of design data from high stress, short-time experimental data to low stress, long time operating component conditions. The report summarizes the history of and literature on multiaxial creep and surveys the current ASME design rules dealing with multiaxial effects. The report then describes the results of two dedicated numerical studies, one assessing the robustness of the ASME rules against uncertainty in extrapolating from uniaxial creep test data to multiaxial component conditions and a second study examining the potential effects of a mechanism shift from high stress, dislocation-mediated creep to diffusion-dominated creep at lower stresses. The final conclusion of the report is that the ASME rules adequately guard against multiaxial creep failure, though there are several aspects of the Code that could be optimized to provide less over-conservative design predictions or to provide a more consistent design margin as a function of temperature and stress. In a few areas, particularly the potential for mechanism shifts outside the currently-available experimental data, the Code rules should be revaluated as additional experimental data and new modeling and simulation results become available

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Review of the Research and Development of Brayton Cycle Technology in Nuclear Power Applications with a Focus on Compressor Technology

This study reviews the integration of Brayton Cycle (BC) systems in nuclear power generation, emphasizing their potential to enhance thermal efficiency and operational flexibility over traditional Rankine Cycle (RC) systems. Key working fluids, such as helium (He), supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ), nitrogen (N 2 ), and air, are evaluated for their performance, efficiency, and compatibility with nuclear systems. He is recognized for its high thermal conductivity and inertness at elevated temperatures, while sCO 2 demonstrates advantages in compactness and efficiency in midrange temperatures. This article also highlights the importance of compressor designs in optimizing BC performance and reviews, available compressor technologies. Axial and centrifugal compressor designs enable efficient gas compression while managing the thermal and mechanical stresses associated with high-pressure operations in nuclear systems. Combined with variable geometry components and advanced materials, these technologies address the challenges posed by varying load conditions. Despite the promising features of BC systems, several challenges persist, including high leakage rates and material degradation under extreme conditions, which necessitate robust sealing technologies and thorough testing. The insights gained from operational experiences at facilities, such as the Oberhausen II plant and the High-Temperature He Test Facility (HHV), underscore the complexities involved in designing high-temperature gas turbines for nuclear applications. This review concludes that as the nuclear industry evolves, BC systems hold significant promise for contributing to a sustainable energy future, particularly in the context of small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors. Further exploration of combined cycle configurations that combine BCs with RCs may enhance overall efficiency and flexibility in power generation.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Throughput Microfluidics Platform for Intracellular Delivery and Sampling of Biomolecules from Live Cells

Nondestructive cell membrane permeabilization systems enable the intracellular delivery of exogenous biomolecules for cell engineering tasks as well as the temporal sampling of cytosolic contents from live cells for the analysis of dynamic processes. Here, in this paper, we report a microwell array format live-cell analysis device (LCAD) that can perform localized-electroporation induced membrane permeabilization, for cellular delivery or sampling, and directly interfaces with surface-based biosensors for analyzing the extracted contents. We demonstrate the capabilities of the LCAD via an automated high-throughput workflow for multimodal analysis of live-cell dynamics, consisting of quantitative measurements of enzyme activity using self-assembled monolayers for MALDI mass spectrometry (SAMDI) and deep-learning enhanced imaging and analysis. By combining a fabrication protocol that enables robust assembly and operation of multilayer devices with embedded gold electrodes and an automated imaging workflow, we successfully deliver functional molecules (plasmid and siRNA) into live cells at multiple time-points and track their effect on gene expression and cell morphology temporally. Furthermore, we report sampling performance enhancements, achieving saturation levels of protein tyrosine phosphatase activity measured from as few as 60 cells, and demonstrate control over the amount of sampled contents by optimization of electroporation parameters using a lumped model. Lastly, we investigate the implications of cell morphology on electroporation-induced sampling of fluorescent molecules using a deep-learning enhanced image analysis workflow.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing high-fidelity neural network potentials through low-fidelity sampling

The efficacy of neural network potentials (NNPs) critically depends on the quality of the configurational datasets used for training. Prior research using empirical potentials has shown that well-selected liquid–solid transitional configurations of a metallic system can be translated to other metallic systems. This study demonstrates that such validated configurations can be relabeled using density functional theory (DFT) calculations, thereby enhancing the development of high-fidelity NNPs. Training strategies and sampling approaches are efficiently assessed using empirical potentials and subsequently relabeled via DFT in a highly parallelized fashion for high-fidelity NNP training. Our results reveal that relying solely on energy and force for NNP training is inadequate to prevent overfitting, highlighting the necessity of incorporating stress terms into the loss functions. To optimize training involving force and stress terms, we propose employing transfer learning to fine-tune the weights, ensuring that the potential surface is smooth for these quantities composed of energy derivatives. This approach markedly improves the accuracy of elastic constants derived from simulations in both empirical potential-based NNPs and relabeled DFT-based NNPs. Overall, this study offers significant insights into leveraging empirical potentials to expedite the development of reliable and robust NNPs at the DFT level.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Distribution System Resilience: A First-Order Meta-RL Algorithm for Critical Load Restoration

The increasing frequency of extreme events and the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into modern grids have elevated the need for resilient and efficient critical load restoration strategies in distribution systems. However, the stochastic nature of renewable DERs, limited energy resource availability and the intricate nonlinearities inherent in complex grid control problem make the problem challenging. Although reinforcement learning (RL) and warm-start RL methods have shown promising results, their performance often falls short in rapidly adapting to new, unseen situations and typically requires exhaustive problem-specific tuning. To address these gaps, we propose a First-Order Meta-based RL (FOM-RL) algorithm within an online framework for adaptive and robust critical load restoration. By harnessing local DERs as the enabling technology, FOM-RL allows the RL agent to swiftly adapt to new unseen scenarios by leveraging previously acquired knowledge of different tasks. Experimental results provide evidence that proposed algorithm learns more efficiently and showcases generalization capabilities across diverse set of operational scenarios. Moreover, a rigorous theoretical analysis yields a tight sublinear regret bound, sensitive to temporal variability, with a task-averaged optimality gap bounded by O(VM+D*/(Tsquare root(M))). These results suggest that optimality improves with task similarity and an increased number of tasks M, reaffirming the efficacy and scalability of the proposed approach in addressing the complexities of critical load restoration in distribution systems.

complexity theory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Training of Deep Neural Operator Networks via Randomized Sampling

Neural operators (NOs) employ deep neural networks to learn the mappings between infinitedimensional function spaces. Deep operator network (DeepONet), a popular NO architecture, has demonstrated success in the real-time prediction of complex dynamics across various scientific and engineering applications. In this work, we introduce a random sampling technique to be adopted during the training of DeepONet, aimed at improving the generalization ability of the model, while significantly reducing the computational time. The proposed approach targets the trunk network of the DeepONet model that outputs the basis functions corresponding to the spatiotemporal locations of the bounded domain on which the physical system is defined. While constructing the loss function, DeepONet training traditionally considers a uniform grid of spatiotemporal points at which all the output functions are evaluated for each iteration. This approach leads to a larger batch size, resulting in poor generalization and increased memory demands, due to the limitations of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimizer. The proposed random sampling over the inputs of the trunk net mitigates these challenges, improving generalization and reducing the memory requirements during training, resulting in significant computational gains. We validate our hypothesis through three benchmark examples, demonstrating substantial reductions in training time while achieving comparable or lower overall test errors relative to the traditional training approach. Our results indicate that incorporating randomization in the trunk network inputs during training enhances the efficiency and robustness of DeepONet, offering a promising avenue for improving the framework’s performance in modeling complex physical systems.

Karumuri, Sharmila [Department of Civil & Systems ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration and Commissioning of the LSST

Understanding the nature of dark energy and dark matter remains one of the fundamental questions in physics today; impacting our understanding of particle physics, cosmology, and possibly theories of gravity. Given the scale and complexity of the next generation of cosmology experiments (e.g., the Rubin Observatory, the Euclid satellite mission, and the Roman space telescope) we are entering an era where statistical noise no longer determines the accuracy to which we can measure cosmological parameters. Our ability to control and correct for systematics will ultimately determine the scientific impact of these experiments. This award addressed the challenge of how we determine what limits the accuracy of our cosmological measures, what techniques are appropriate for measuring and calibrating the properties of galaxies to best constrain cosmological models, how to develop statistical techniques that are insensitive to systematic errors, and how to optimize survey strategies in order to minimize systematics while maximizing the speed at which an experiment can achieve its science objectives. In this final technical report for award DE-SC0011635 we describe a set of open-source frameworks that simulate the characteristics and properties of current and planned cosmology surveys and the application of these frameworks to the development of new methodologies for estimating the properties and distances to galaxies that are robust to noisy and incomplete data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗