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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Evaluation of Uncertainties in the Anthropogenic SO 2 Emissions in the USA from the OMI Point Source Catalog

Satellite remote sensing is a promising method of monitoring emissions that may be missing in inventories, but the accuracy of these estimates is often not clear. We demonstrate here a comprehensive evaluation of errors in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission estimates from NASA’s OMI point source catalog for the contiguous US by comparing emissions from the catalog with high-quality emission inventory data over different dimensions including size of individual sources, aggregate vs individual source errors, and potential bias in individual source estimates over time. For sources that are included in the catalog, we find that errors in aggregate (sum of error for all included sources) are relatively low. Errors for individual sources in any given year can be substantial, however, with over- or underestimates in terms of total error ranging from –80 to 110 kt (roughly 10–90th percentile). In this study, we find that these errors are not necessarily random over time and that there can be consistently positive or negative biases for individual sources. We did not find any overall statistical relationship between the degree of isolation of a source and bias, either at a 40 or 70 km scales. For a sub-set of sources where inventory emissions over a radius of 70 km around an OMI detection are larger than twice the emissions within 40 km, the OMI value is consistently overestimated. We find, as expected, that emission sources not included in the catalog are the largest aggregate source of difference between the satellite estimates and inventories, especially in more recent years where source emission magnitudes have been decreasing and note that trends in satellite detections do not necessarily track trends in total emissions. We find that the OMI-based SO 2 emissions are accurate in aggregate, when summed over a number of sources, but must be interpreted more cautiously at the individual source level. Similar analyses would be valuable for other satellite emission estimates; however, in many cases, the appropriate high-quality reference data may need to be generated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy-Screened Many-Body Expansion for Protein–Ligand Interactions: Examining Convergence for Metalloenzymes Through Seven–Body Interactions

Fragment-based quantum chemistry is a powerful strategy for calculating protein−ligand interaction energies using quantum chemistry methods. Rigorous convergence often requires hundreds of atoms in the protein binding-site model, especially if that model is constructed using distance-based criteria to select amino acid residues, while three- and four-body calculations exhibit instability related to combinatorial proliferation in the number of subsystem calculations. Here, we report an energy-based screening protocol for the many-body expansion applied to protein−ligand interactions, implemented in the open-source FRAGME∩T code. Using a combination of aggressive screening based on semiempirical quantum chemistry, with an improved graph-theoretical algorithm to eliminate unimportant subsystems, we are able to perform n-body calculations up to n = 7 using density functional theory in triple-ζ basis sets. Distance cutoffs further reduce the cost without compromising accuracy. Rapid and stable convergence of the many-body expansion is obtained by n = 4, for a pair of metalloenzymes in which a divalent ion coordinates directly to the ligand. As compared to previous results that relied solely on distance cutoffs, oscillations in the n-body corrections are reduced or eliminated, although residual errors remain in one case. This work demonstrates that benchmark-quality protein−ligand interaction energies can be systematically converged using a method with excellent parallel efficiency and scalability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Discovering Ca II absorption lines with a neural network

Quasar absorption line analysis is critical for studying gas and dust components and their physical and chemical properties as well as the evolution and formation of galaxies in the early universe. Calcium II (Ca II ) absorbers, which are one of the dustiest absorbers and are located at lower redshifts than most other absorbers, are especially valuable when studying physical processes and conditions in recent galaxies. However, the number of known quasar Ca II absorbers is relatively low due to the difficulty of detecting them with traditional methods. In this work, we developed an accurate and quick approach to search for Ca II absorption lines using deep learning. In our deep learning model, a convolutional neural network, tuned using simulated data, is used for the classification task. The simulated training data are generated by inserting artificial Ca II absorption lines into original quasar spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), while an existing Ca II catalogue is adopted as the test set. The resulting model achieves an accuracy of 96 per cent on the real data in the test set. Our solution runs thousands of times faster than traditional methods, taking a fraction of a second to analyse thousands of quasars, while traditional methods may take days to weeks. The trained neural network is applied to quasar spectra from SDSS’s DR7 and DR12 and discovered 399 new quasar Ca II absorbers. In addition, we confirmed 409 known quasar Ca II absorbers identified previously by other research groups through traditional methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Elimination of the linearization error in APW/LAPW basis set: Dirac-Kohn-Sham equations

Here, a detailed account of the implementation of equations of the relativistic density functional theory (RDFT) using basis sets of APW/LAPW type with flexible extensions provided by local orbitals is given. Earlier discoveries of the importance of the high derivative local orbital (HDLO) extension of the APW/LAPW basis set for enhancing the accuracy of DFT calculations are confirmed using a fully relativistic approach and α – U as an example. High energy local orbitals (HELO's), however indispensable for GW calculations, are considerably less efficient in enhancing the accuracy of DFT applications. It is shown that a simplified approach to the relativistic effects, namely considering them only inside the muffin-tin (MT) spheres, produces basically identical results (as compared to fully relativistic approach) for the electronic free energy of the five materials considered in this work. By comparing the effect of the simplified approach on the electronic free energy with its effect on the electronic kinetic energy we conclude that the insensitivity of the free energy to the way we describe the relativistic effects in the interstitial region is related to the variational property of this quantity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) method for long-time integration of second-order stochastic dynamical systems

For decades, uncertainty quantification techniques based on the spectral approach have been demonstrated to be computationally more efficient than the Monte Carlo method for a wide variety of problems, particularly when the dimensionality of the probability space is relatively low. The time-dependent generalized polynomial chaos (TD-gPC) is one such technique that uses an evolving orthogonal basis to better represent the stochastic part of the solution space in time. Here in this paper, we present a new numerical method that uses the concept of enriched stochastic flow maps to track the evolution of the stochastic part of the solution space in time. The computational cost of this proposed flow-driven stochastic chaos (FSC) method is an order of magnitude lower than TD-gPC for comparable solution accuracy. This gain in computational cost is realized because, unlike most existing methods, the number of basis vectors required to track the stochastic part of the solution space does not depend upon the dimensionality of the probability space. Four representative numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the FSC method for long-time integration of second-order stochastic dynamical systems in the context of stochastic dynamics of structures.

FSC↗

Data-driven chaos indicator for nonlinear dynamics and applications on storage ring lattice design

A data-driven chaos indicator concept is introduced to characterize the degree of chaos for nonlinear dynamical systems. The indicator is represented by the prediction accuracy of surrogate models established purely from data. It provides a metric for the predictability of nonlinear motions in a given system. When using the indicator to implement a tune-scan for a quadratic Hénon map, the main resonances and their asymmetric stop-band widths can be identified. When applied to particle transportation in a storage ring, as particle motion becomes more chaotic, its surrogate model prediction accuracy decreases correspondingly. So, the prediction accuracy, acting as a chaos indicator, can be used directly as the objective for nonlinear beam dynamics optimization. This method provides a different perspective on nonlinear beam dynamics and an efficient method for nonlinear lattice optimization. Applications in dynamic aperture optimization are demonstrated as real world examples.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comparison of MCNP thermal scattering laws to inelastic neutron scattering data

Neutron transport computations employ thermal scattering laws (TSLs) to account for the influence of material structure and collective excitations at low energy (≲ 10 eV). Recent work has been undertaken to improve TSL accuracy and expand the number of available materials in the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF). However, comparison of TSL to measured data is often sparse. In this work, we present a method to evaluate TSL accuracy in the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code by simulating inelastic neutron scattering (INS) measurement and comparing to data. The method is briefly described with example application to the recently released ENDF-VIII TSL library for polyethylene as well as a cryogenic PE TSL we are separately developing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A theoretical investigation of the hydrolysis of uranium hexafluoride: the initiation mechanism and vibrational spectroscopy

Depleted uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ), a stockpiled byproduct of the nuclear fuel cycle, reacts readily with atmospheric humidity, but the mechanism is poorly understood. Here we compare several potential initiation steps at a consistent level of theory, generating underlying structures and vibrational modes using hybrid density functional theory (DFT) and computing relative energies of stationary points with double-hybrid (DH) DFT. A benchmark comparison is performed to assess the quality of DH-DFT data using reference energy differences obtained using a complete-basis-limit coupled-cluster (CC) composite method. The associated large-basis CC computations were enabled by a new general-purpose pseudopotential capability implemented as part of this work. Dispersion-corrected parameter-free DH-DFT methods, namely PBE0-DH-D3(BJ) and PBE-QIDH-D3(BJ), provided mean unsigned errors within chemical accuracy (1 kcal mol -1 ) for a set of barrier heights corresponding to the most energetically favorable initiation steps. The hydrolysis mechanism is found to proceed via intermolecular hydrogen transfer within van der Waals complexes involving UF 6 , UF 5 OH, and UOF 4 , in agreement with previous studies, followed by the formation of a previously unappreciated dihydroxide intermediate, UF 4 (OH) 2 . The dihydroxide is predicted to form under both kinetic and thermodynamic control, and, unlike the alternate pathway leading to the UO 2 F 2 monomer, its reaction energy is exothermic, in agreement with observation. Finally, harmonic and anharmonic vibrational simulations are performed to reinterpret literature infrared spectroscopy in light of this newly identified species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Adapting In Situ Accelerators for Sparsity With Granular Matrix Reordering

Neural network (NN) inference is an essential part of modern systems and is found at the heart of numerous applications ranging from image recognition to natural language processing. In situ NN accelerators can efficiently perform NN inference using resistive crossbars, which makes them a promising solution to the data movement challenges faced by conventional architectures. Although such accelerators demonstrate significant potential for dense NNs, they often do not benefit from sparse NNs, which contain relatively few non-zero weights. Processing sparse NNs on in situ accelerators results in wasted energy to charge the entire crossbar where most elements are zeros. To address this limitation, this paper proposes Granular Matrix Reordering (GMR): a preprocessing technique that enables an energy-efficient computation of sparse NNs on in situ accelerators. GMR reorders the rows and columns of sparse weight matrices to maximize the crossbars' utilization and minimize the total number of crossbars needed to be charged. The reordering process does not rely on sparsity patterns and incurs no accuracy loss. Finally, GMR achieves an average of 28% and up to 34% reduction in energy consumption over seven pruned NNs across four different pruning methods and network architectures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Discerning Deception: An Empirically-Driven Agent-Based Model of Expert Evaluation of Scientific Content

Both human subject experiments and computational, modeling and simulations have been used to study detection of deception. This work aims to combine these two methods by integrating empirically-derived information (from human subject experiments) into agent-based models to generate novel insights into the complex problems of detection of disinformation content. Computational experiments are used to simulate across multiple scenarios for evaluation and decision-making regarding the validity of potentially deceptive scientific documents. Factors influencing the human agent behaviors in the model were identified through a human subject experiment that was conducted to evaluate and characterize decision making related to disinformation discernment. Correlation and regression analyses were used to translate insights from the human subjects experiment to inform the parameterization of agent features and scenario development. Three scenarios were evaluated with the agent-based models to help evaluate the replicability of the simulations (validation analysis) and assess the influence of human agent and document features (sensitivity analyses). A replication of the human participant experiment demonstrated that the agent-based simulations compare favorably to empirical findings. The agent-based modeling was then used to conduct sensitivity analysis on the accuracy of deception detection as a function of document proportions and human agent features. Results indicate that precision values are adversely impacted when the proportion of deceptive documents is lower in the overall sample, whereas recall values are more sensitive to changes in human agent features. These findings indicate important nuances in accuracy evaluations that should be further considered (including consideration of potential alternate metrics) in future agent-based models of disinformation. Additional areas for future exploration include extension of simulations to consider other ways to align the agent-based model design with psychological theory and inclusion of agent-agent interactions, especially as it pertains to sharing of scientific information within an organizational context.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Numerical Modeling of a Two-Stage Ocean Current Turbine

The Equinox Ocean Turbines (EQOT) current energy converter has a unique design with power generation in two small-diameter turbines attached to the tips of a large-diameter passive rotor. This configuration offers some key advantages for capturing ocean currents. With no centrally placed generator, almost no reaction torque is required at the nacelle of the main large-diameter rotor, and the small-diameter tip turbine generators operate at a higher speed and lower torque. The physics that determine the performance and loads on the turbine are also unique. The interactions of the flow field between the two stages and the general architecture of the system cannot be captured with traditional mid-fidelity modeling tools. For design iterations and large sets of load cases, it is important to have mid-fidelity models that can capture the important phenomenon with enough accuracy to identify global trends. This work uses a limited set of high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to help inform the selection of and construction of a custom mid-fidelity model. Mid-fidelity modeling approaches were verified by comparing key turbine performance quantities to those found with the CFD model. Hydrodynamic interactions of the two-stage rotor were identified through high-fidelity CFD modeling. This highlighted the impact of the main rotor tip vortex and wake on the secondary rotor apparent inflow. This results in a relative flow rotation and sharp deficit, that change the optimal secondary rotor rotation speed and adds unsteadiness to the blade loading respectively. Multiple mid-fidelity approaches were evaluated for their ability to capture these effects. A simple approximation of the combined-stage performance based on single-stage BEM provides a reasonable rough prediction, especially near the peak TSR values, with some larger discrepancy at higher TSRs. Predicting the combined-stage performance based on single-stage CFD data improves this prediction across the TSR range. Although the combined-stage modeling in OLAF was not successful in this stage of the project, it showed promise as a mid-fidelity method, assuming the parameters can be tuned to account for the significant differences in time and length scales between the main and secondary rotors. This may be addressed through code changes in future work. A significant finding from the OLAF work was the agreement between the vortex core radius values found independently via a parameter space search and via CFD. The technique of using single-stage secondary rotor BEM, with a custom inflow taken from single-stage main rotor CFD or OLAF, provides an efficient method to capture one-way coupled flow interactions. This method provided generally good predictions of the impact of the flow rotation on the secondary rotor but struggled to accurately predict the peaks of the unsteady load progression. Future work could include some superposition of a tuned main rotor trailing edge viscous wake into the custom inflow to better predict this interaction.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

High precision real-time insertion device and monochromator synchronization at NSLS-II

We report that insertion devices have become the dominant photon source at synchrotron and free electron laser light source facilities the world over. Undulators, characterized by their small deflection parameter, exhibit a high degree of constructive interference in photon production from high energy charged particle beams leading to very high photon rates at specific harmonics of the fundamental frequency with relatively narrow spectral widths. Spectroscopic measurements of interest typically span several of these harmonic widths, which requires precision adjustment of an undulator’s magnetic gap to maintain peak flux within the much narrower bandwidth of a beamline monochromator at the desired energy. High precision insertion device controls are developed at NSLS-II including real-time linked control of monochromator hardware allowing for fast, high precision, hardware triggered, spectroscopic measurements. Furthermore, this fast fly scan method is described, compared statistically for self consistency, and shown to be far superior in both efficiency and accuracy as compared to standard step scan measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The H•/H– Redox Couple and Absolute Hydration Energy of H–

A supermolecule-continuum approach with water clusters up to n = 16 H2O molecules has been used to predict the absolute hydration free energies at 298 K ($\Delta$G hyd ) of both hydrogen (H•) and hydride (H - ) to be 4.6 and -78 ± 2 kcal/mol, respectively. These values are combined with a high accuracy prediction of the gas phase electron affinity ($\Delta$G gas,298K = -16.9 kcal/mol) to determine the aqueous electron affinity of H• of 99.5 ± 2 kcal/mol, which yields a reduction potential for H• vs SHE of -0.03 ± 0.15 V. This value is in agreement within 0.2 V with most estimates obtained using a wide variety of approaches. The results of this study can be used to improve the absolute hydricity scale in water which provides additional insights into how a putative hydride interacts with solvent, but do not change the ability to predict the relative reactivity of two species using relative hydricity scales.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cation Disorder of ${\text{Mg}}_{\mathbf{2}}{\text{SiO}}_{\mathbf{4}}$ in Super‐Earth Mantles

Understanding the mineralogy of exoplanets is essential for unraveling their interior structures, dynamics, and evolution. For large super-Earths, the post-post spinel ${\text{Mg}}_{\mathbf{2}}{\text{SiO}}_{\mathbf{4}}$, one of the major mantle phases, may undergo the order-disorder transition (ODT) at high temperatures. However, the ODT phase boundary of ${\text{Mg}}_{\mathbf{2}}{\text{SiO}}_{\mathbf{4}}$ has not been rigorously constrained. Additionally, fundamental thermodynamic properties of the disordered ${\text{Mg}}_{\mathbf{2}}{\text{SiO}}_{\mathbf{4}}$ remain poorly investigated. Here, we develop a unified machine learning potential (MLP) for ${\text{Mg}}_{\mathbf{2}}{\text{SiO}}_{\mathbf{4}}$ of ab initio accuracy under super-Earth mantle conditions. With the efficient MLP, we extensively calculate the free energy of post-post spinel ${\text{Mg}}_{\mathbf{2}}{\text{SiO}}_{\mathbf{4}}$ via the thermodynamic integration method. The results are used to constrain the ODT phase boundary. Furthermore, we report the P-V-T equation of state and Grüneisen parameters for post-post spinel ${\text{Mg}}_{\mathbf{2}}{\text{SiO}}_{\mathbf{4}}$ across various degrees of disorder. These thermodynamic properties are further applied to update the adiabatic thermal profiles and the mass-radius relation of super-Earths.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Voltage Inference Framework for Real-Time Observability in Active Distribution Grids

Active distribution grids are gaining traction to meet the growing environmental, socio-economic, and sustainability targets. Various advanced smart grid technologies facilitate the integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) by supporting the bi-directional power flow. The limited observability of distribution grids, primarily related to their location at the very edge of power system infrastructure, brings challenges to optimal grid management. Moreover, only a limited number of measurements at regular intervals are usually available. This paper presents a novel inference framework, referred to as “Voltage Inference”, to overcome the observability issues. The proposed framework employs a prediction step based on the Multivariate Taylor series approximation, followed by a corrector step that minimizes the estimation error to infer the otherwise unknown voltages from the available measurements. Furthermore, numerical results on the IEEE 13-bus test feeder validate the accuracy and computational performance of the proposed framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

APOGEE-2S Mg–Al anti-correlation of the metal-poor globular cluster NGC 2298

We present detailed elemental abundances and radial velocities of stars in the metal-poor globular cluster (GC) NGC 2298, based on near-infrared high-resolution ($R$ ~ 22 500) spectra of 12 members obtained during the second phase of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE-2) at Las Campanas Observatory as part of the seventeenth Data Release (DR 17) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV). We employed the Brussels Automatic Code for Characterizing High accuracy Spectra (BACCHUS) software to investigate abundances for a variety of species including α elements (Mg, Si, and Ca), the odd-Z element Al, and iron-peak elements (Fe and Ni) located in the innermost regions of NGC 2298. We find a mean and median metallicity [Fe/H] = -1.76 and -1.75, respectively, with a star-to-star spread of 0.14 dex, which is compatible with the internal measurement errors. Thus, we find no evidence for an intrinsic [Fe/H] abundance spread in NGC 2298. The typical $α$-element enrichment in NGC 2298 is overabundant relative to the Sun, and it follows the trend of other metal-poor GCs. We confirm the existence of an Al-enhanced population in this cluster, which is clearly anti-correlated with Mg, indicating the prevalence of the multiple-population phenomenon in NGC 2298.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Process-Based Balance-of-System Cost Modeling for Offshore Wind Power Plants in the United States: Preprint

This work describes the development of a process based and open source balance of system cost model which provides the capability to evaluate both existing and novel offshore wind technologies. Individual design and installation steps are represented with bottom-up engineering models that compute the times and costs associated with the process; furthermore, operational constraints are assigned to each process so that delays due to weather and presence of marine mammals may be accounted for in the overall project timeline. The model structure, assumptions, inputs, and results are vetted with industry partners and compared against actual projects for validation; installation times are shown to agree with real data with relative errors of less than 35\%. Case studies are presented to demonstrate the functionality of the model. First, individual vessel efficiencies are computed for varying numbers of installation vessels and weather time series to show the diminishing returns of more than two feeder barges. Then, array cable capital costs and installation times are determined for a representative project with different turbine sizes. This quantifies the cost benefit tradeoffs of decreasing number of turbines, increased turbine spacing, and fewer turbine terminations and shows a net cost savings. These results demonstrate that the BOS model features the accuracy, functionality, and accessibility to serve as the foundation for a wide range of analyses to identify cost reduction potentials for offshore wind energy in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A hybrid analytical and numerical model for cross-over and performance decay in a unit cell vanadium redox flow battery

Developing an accurate and efficient model for cross-over is critical for improving the long-term performance of redox flow batteries (RFBs). Here, this work presents a hybrid analytical and numerical model that combines a two-dimensional analytical solution to the active species, a one-dimensional analytical model for cross-over mechanisms, and a zero-dimensional numerical model for outlet concentrations of reactants. By comparing with experiment over 41 cycles (ca. 144 h), the model reported a mean voltage difference of 0.0089 V, mean time difference of 14 s per cycle (of 3.5 h), maximum relative difference for capacity and energy of 1.34% and 1.63%, respectively. The predicted mean concentrations for V 2+ , V 3+ , and VO$_{2}^{+}$ in membrane are 65%~77% of measured values from the literature. Upon validation, the model reproduced behaviors in electrolyte imbalance similar to those observed in experiments and numerical models, and revealed the control of cross-over, self-discharge, stoichiometry of side reactions, and Coulombic efficiency on electrolyte imbalance. The model also demonstrates excellent computational efficiency for simulating 41 cycles (around 37,000 points) within 3~4 s. The demonstrated efficiency and accuracy for predicting cross-over and its impacts on voltage, capacity&energy decay, membrane concentrations, and electrolyte imbalance makes it a reliable tool for optimizing RFBs’ long-term performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗