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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

A spatially regularized detector for emergent/re-emergent disease outbreaks

Early detection of outbreaks caused by emergent pathogens, using epidemiological surveillance data i.e., daily case counts, is difficult. This is because the data tend to be noisy during the early epoch of the outbreak. In contrast, the spread-rate of the disease tends to be well-behaved, as it depends only on the mixing patterns of the population and the characteristics of the pathogen, neither of which behave erratically in space-time. In this report, we explore whether the spread-rate can be used for epidemiological surveillance, conditional on case count data. Estimating the spread-rate from case count data allows us to exploit exogenous information, e.g., incubation period distributions etc., which can considerably smooth out any erratic temporal behavior. Further, epidemiological dynamics are spatially correlated, and if case counts are available for multiple areal units e.g., counties, these correlations could potentially be used to suppress noise in the early epoch data. These exogenous information and structure are not exploited by conventional syndromic surveillance detectors to extract a well-behaved latent variable for monitoring purposes. The technical challenge lies in the estimation of the spread-rate field jointly over a collection of areal units; further, the spread-rate varies over time. We develop a method based on mean-field variational inference to approximately estimate the spread-rate field, using a Gaussian Random Field Model for spatial regularization. The method is tested on the estimation of spread-rate in the thirty-three counties of New Mexico and detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave in September 2020. We find that the method is scalable, but underestimates the uncertainty in the estimated spread-rate field. We detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 wave a week ahead of conventional syndromic surveillance algorithms, but our simplistic detection algorithm, based on simple anomaly detection, suffers from a high false positive rate, similar to conventional detectors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Profiling Saturn's rings by radio occultation

The development of reconstruction algorithms that correct for diffraction effects in radio occultation measurements is described. The reciprocal Fresnel transform relationship between the complex amplitude of the observed coherent signal and the complex microwave transmittance of the rings is derived using the Huygens-Fresnel formulation of the diffraction problem. The effects of the finite data segment width, the uncertainties in the Fresnel scale, systematic phase errors in the kernel of the inverse transform, reference oscillator instabilities, and random noise measurements on the resolution of the reconstructed transmittance are analyzed. Examples of reconstructed opacity profiles for some regions of Saturn's rings derived by applying the reconstruction theory to Voyager 1 at Saturn data are presented.

Marouf, Essam A.↗

Aerocapture and aeromaneuvering at Mars

This paper presents the results of a guidance analysis study for aerocapture and aeromaneuvering at Mars. A 4-state, near-optimal, hybrid guidance algorithm is derived for applications throughout the paper. It is based on the critical assumption that Loh's function remains constant between successive guidance updates. Besides the guidance algorithm, the paper presents a performance evaluation of guidance derived from estimated or 'navigated' spacecraft state, provided by an onboard navigation subsystem for real-time applications on Mars. For the performance evaluation, the spacecraft state is augmented by such parameters as the reference atmospheric density and scale-height, the banking angle and angle of attack for spacecraft control and the accelerometer measurement model errors. Finally, the paper examines also, the influence of random uncertainties in atmospheric density on aeroassisted maneuvers, by a Monte Carlo type of simulation.

Vijayaraghavan, A.↗

Application of neural network to remote sensing of soil moisture using theoretical polarimetric backscattering coefficients

This paper investigates the potential application of neural network to inversion of soil moisture using polarimetric remote sensing data. The neural network used for the inversion of soil parameters is multi-layer perceptron trained with the back-propagation algorithm. The training data include the polarimetric backscattering coefficients obtained from theoretical surface scattering models together with an assumed nominal range of soil parameters which are comprised of the soil permittivity and surface roughness parameters. Soil permittivity is calculated from the soil moisture and the assumed soil texture based on an empirical formula at C-, L-, and P-bands. The rough surface parameters for the soil surface, which is described by the Gaussian random process, are the root-mean-square (rms) height and correlation length. For the rough surface scattering, small perturbation method is used for the L-band frequency, and Kirchhoff approximation is used for the C-band frequency to obtain the corresponding backscattering coefficients. During the training, the backscattering coefficients are the inputs to the neural net and the output from the net are compared with the desired soil parameters to adjust the interconnecting weights. The process is repeated for each input-output data entry and then for the entire training data until convergence is reached. After training, the backscattering coefficients are applied to the trained neural net to retrieve the soil parameters which are compared with the desired soil parameters to verify the effectiveness of this technique. Several cases are examined. First, for simplicity, the correlation length and rms height of the soil surface are fixed while soil moisture is varied. Soil moisture obtained using the neural networks with either L-band or C-band backscattering coefficients for the HH and VV polarizations as inputs is in good agreement with the desired soil moisture. The neural net output matches the desired output for the soil moisture range of 16 to 60 percent for the C-band case. The next case investigated is to vary both soil moisture and rms height while keeping the correlation length fixed. For this case, C-band backscattering coefficients are not sufficient for retrieving two parameters because the Kirchhoff approximation gives the same HH and VV backscattering coefficients. Therefore, the backscattering coefficients at two different frequency bands are necessary to find both the soil moisture and rms height. Finally, the neural nets are also applied to simultaneously invert soil moisture, rms height, and correlation length. Overall, the soil moisture retrieved from the neural network agrees very well with the desired soil moisture. This suggests that the neural network shows potential for retrieval of soil parameters from remote sensing data.

Wang, L.↗

Nearest-Neighbor Machine Learning Feature Selection for Interpretation of Microbial Molecular Signatures from Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry Data

Mass spectrometry (MS) promises to be a powerful tool for potential biosignature detection during astrobiological missions on ocean worlds in our solar system. Accurate and generalizable machine learning methods could enhance science return on investment by predicting seawater chemistry and classifying isotopic biosignatures, either as a signature consistent with microbial life (biotic) or as a novelty (unclassified/unique). However, machine learning models are likely to be complex and involve interactions between MS features, making biosignatures difficult to interpret. Feature selection methods provide biological and chemical context that help interpret the mechanisms of machine learning models, but these methods also need the ability to detect complex interactions. Previously, we developed a machine learning feature selection algorithm called nearest-neighbor projected distance regression (NPDR) that has the ability to identify important model features that involve complex interactions and automatically reduce correlation and the dimensionality in a high-dimensional variable space. The standard distance metrics used in NPDR – Manhattan and Euclidean – assume the multivariate data are isotropic, which is often violated in real data due to differences in the covariance between variables. Thus, we extend NPDR to include a random forest distance, and other anisotropic distance metrics, for computing nearest neighbors. We also augment the isotope-ratio MS data with time-series features from the raw MS signal to improve biotic classification. We test NPDR on our novel experimental ocean world seawater analog MS data. We measure isotope fractionations of volatile CO 2 that could be measured in exospheres or plumes. Samples include baseline abiotic conditions using a range of possible seawater chemistry consistent with Europa and Enceladus, and biotic samples that include microbes in these seawaters. We use penalized NPDR with random forest proximity to identify interpretable microbial molecular signatures. We compare features with random forest importance, and we train a classifier that discriminates between biotic and abiotic samples with high accuracy. These ML-trained ocean-world analog MS data could be used to assist in identifying biosignatures during future missions.

geochemistry↗

Robust Online Sequential RVFLNs for Data Modeling of Dynamic Time-Varying Systems with Application of an Ironmaking Blast Furnace

In a world where the increasing complexity of modern industrial processes brings difficulties for accurate mathematical modeling, taking advantage of data has become an efficient solution to complex dynamic process modeling issue. In this paper, we develop a novel robust online sequential version of random vector functional-link networks (RVFLNs) for data-driven modeling of dynamic time-varying system and applied it in a blast furnace (BF) ironmaking process. First, to overcome the time-varying dynamics of process and to enable the RVFLNs to learn online with avoiding data saturation, an improved online sequential version of RVFLNs (OS-RFVLNs) is first presented by online sequential learning with forgetting factor. This improved OS-RVFLNs algorithm is not only suitable for the real-time and large data transfer situation, but also can adjust the sensitivity of the algorithm to different samples with the help of the introduced forgetting factor. Second, since the output weights of the improved OS-RVFLNs as well as other RVFLNs algorithms are obtained by the least squares approach, a robustness problem may occur when the training dataset is contaminated with various outliers. To solve this problem, a Cauchy distribution weighted M-estimator is introduced to improve the robustness of the improved OS- RVFLNs. For this proposed robust OS-RVFLNs (R-OS- RVFLNs), since the weights of different outlier data are properly determined by the Cauchy distribution function, their corresponding contribution on modeling can be properly distinguished. Thus robust and better modeling results can be achieved. Experiments using actual industrial data of BF ironmaking process and comparative studies have demonstrated that the proposed method produces a better estimation accuracy and stronger robustness than other methods.

Blast furnace (BF), Modelling, Dynamic systems↗

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Application of advanced reliability methods to local strain fatigue analysis

When design factors are considered as random variables and the failure condition cannot be expressed by a closed form algebraic inequality, computations of risk (or probability of failure) might become extremely difficult or very inefficient. This study suggests using a simple, and easily constructed, second degree polynomial to approximate the complicated limit state in the neighborhood of the design point; a computer analysis relates the design variables at selected points. Then a fast probability integration technique (i.e., the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm) can be used to estimate risk. The capability of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example of a low cycle fatigue problem for which a computer analysis is required to perform local strain analysis to relate the design variables. A comparison of the performance of this method is made with a far more costly Monte Carlo solution. Agreement of the proposed method with Monte Carlo is considered to be good.

Wu, T. T.↗

Advanced reliability method for fatigue analysis

When design factors are considered as random variables and the failure condition cannot be expressed by a closed form algebraic inequality, computations of risk (or probability of failure) may become extremely difficult or very inefficient. This study suggests using a simple and easily constructed second degree polynomial to approximate the complicated limit state in the neighborhood of the design point; a computer analysis relates the design variables at selected points. Then a fast probability integration technique (i.e., the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm) can be used to estimate risk. The capability of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example of a low cycle fatigue problem for which a computer analysis is required to perform local strain analysis to relate the design variables. A comparison of the performance of this method is made with a far more costly Monte Carlo solution. Agreement of the proposed method with Monte Carlo is considered to be good.

Wu, Y.-T.↗

Robotic Target-Tracking Subsystem

Position and orientation of target measured in six degrees of freedom. Robotic vision subsystem measures relative position and orientation of specially designed target. Uses standard image-processing algorithms implemented directly in circuitry instead of computer programs. This feature makes it possible to extract complete sets of target-tracking data from successive image frames at rate of 30 frames per second. Five bright circles of target positioned in such way that video images of them processed into data on position and orientation of target relative to camera. Subsystem useful in industrial assembly operation requiring automatic joining of parts initially oriented and moving randomly.

Shawaga, Lawrence M.↗

Remote sensing of vegetation canopy photosynthetic and stomatal conductance efficiencies

The problem of remote sensing the canopy photosynthetic and stomatal conductance efficiencies is investigated with the aid of one- and three-dimensional radiative transfer methods coupled to a semi-empirical mechanistic model of leaf photosynthesis and stomatal conductance. Desertlike vegetation is modeled as clumps of leaves randomly distributed on a bright dry soil with partial ground cover. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), canopy photosynthetic (Ep), and stomatal efficiencies (Es) are calculated for various geometrical, optical, and illumination conditions. The contribution of various radiative fluxes to estimates of Ep is evaluated and the magnitude of errors in bulk canopy formulation of problem parameters are quantified. The nature and sensitivity of the relationship between Ep and Es to NDVI is investigated, and an algorithm is proposed for use in operational remote sensing.

Myneni, R. B.↗

Physics-informed machine learning

Despite great progress in simulating multiphysics problems using the numerical discretization of partial differential equations (PDEs), one still cannot seamlessly incorporate noisy data into existing algorithms, mesh generation remains complex, and high-dimensional problems governed by parameterized PDEs cannot be tackled. Moreover, solving inverse problems with hidden physics is often prohibitively expensive and requires different formulations and elaborate computer codes. Machine learning has emerged as a promising alternative, but training deep neural networks requires big data, not always available for scientific problems. Instead, such networks can be trained from additional information obtained by enforcing the physical laws (for example, at random points in the continuous space-time domain). Such physics-informed learning integrates (noisy) data and mathematical models, and implements them through neural networks or other kernel-based regression networks. Moreover, it may be possible to design specialized network architectures that automatically satisfy some of the physical invariants for better accuracy, faster training and improved generalization. Furthermore, we review some of the prevailing trends in embedding physics into machine learning, present some of the current capabilities and limitations and discuss diverse applications of physics-informed learning both for forward and inverse problems, including discovering hidden physics and tackling high-dimensional problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Polarization-agnostic continuous-variable quantum key distribution

Here, we introduce a polarization-agnostic method for Gaussian-modulated coherent-state (GCMS) continuous-variable quantum key distribution (CVQKD). Due to the random and continuous nature of the GCMS protocol, Alice, the transmitter, can encode two distinct quadratures in each of two orthogonal polarization modes, such that Bob, the receiver, measures valid GCMS quadratures in a single polarization mode even when polarization changes occur during transmission. This method does not require polarization correction in the optical domain, does not require monitoring both polarization modes, reduces loss by eliminating optical components, and avoids the noise injected by polarization correction algorithms.

Williams, Brian P. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

Satellite Optical Remote Sensing of Clouds and Aerosols: From Particle Single-Scattering and Gaseous Absorption Through Radiative Transfer to Retrieval Products

Clouds and aerosols are fundamental regulators of Earth’s radiation budget and climate system, influencing both solar and terrestrial radiation through scattering, absorption, and emission processes. Accurate characterization of their physical and radiative properties from space requires a rigorous understanding of particle single-scattering, gaseous absorption, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, as well as reliable inversion methods. This review synthesizes the physical foundations and algorithmic implementations of satellite-based passive optical remote sensing of clouds and aerosols, spanning the ultraviolet to thermal infrared spectral range. Beginning with electromagnetic scattering theory and state-of-the-art methods for computing single-scattering by nonspherical particles and computationally efficient methods for accounting for atmospheric absorption, we discuss the radiative transfer framework underpinning cloud and aerosol retrievals. The connection between single-scattering and multiple-scattering is rigorously formulated. We then summarize operational and research-grade retrieval techniques, including cloud masking and thermodynamic phase determination, CO₂ slicing for cloud-top pressure, the Nakajima-King shortwave bi-spectral, and infrared split-window approaches for cloud optical thickness and effective particle size, inversion algorithms for determining aerosol properties from multi-spectral and/or multi-angle radiometric and polarimetric measurements, and active-passive sensing synergy. Examples of the global cloud and aerosol climatologies are illustrated using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). Furthermore, the unique strengths of active remote sensing techniques based on spaceborne lidar observations are briefly elaborated in the context of studying ice clouds composed of randomly and horizontally oriented ice crystals, which is a significant challenge for conventional passive remote sensing techniques. By connecting physical theory to practical retrievals, this review highlights both the maturity of current methodologies and the remaining challenges in reducing uncertainties in particle morphology, vertical structure, absorption, and aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on atmospheric remote sensing is briefly addressed.

Aerosols↗

Modeling plasticity-mediated void growth at the single crystal scale: A physics-informed machine learning approach

Modeling the evolution of voids during plastic flow as well as their effects on plastic dissipation is critical for both component manufacturing and lifetime estimation purposes. To this end, we propose a rate-dependent constitutive model to homogenize the effects of semi-randomly distributed voids on single crystal plasticity whilst capturing void interaction and plastic anisotropy. Here, this present work focuses on the case of face centered cubic crystals to introduce an anisotropic gauge function applicable within the crystal plasticity formalism. The approach combines analytical methods to describe the micromechanics of the system in combination with symbolic regression to capture analytically intractable mechanisms from data. The hybrid framework uses a physics-informed genetic programming-based symbolic regression algorithm to solve a multiform optimization problem simultaneously producing a new gauge function and a new strain rate equation. This is also a multi-objective optimization problem with many competing objectives. A new search and selection step is introduced to the genetic algorithm that promotes convergence toward a global solution that better satisfies all the objectives. Overall, the symbolic equations produced leverage data-driven methods to achieve greater accuracy than comparable alternatives on an analytically intractable problem while maintaining model transparency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dynamic Behavior of Natural Seep Vents: Analysis of Field and Laboratory Observations and Modeling (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

In this project, we have analyzed data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in a high pressure water tunnel (HPWT) and data from two research cruises to natural seeps in the Gulf of Mexico to adapt and validate a numerical model to predict the dynamics of natural seeps in the deep oceans. The HPWT data include video observations of the shrinkage rate of individual methane and natural gas bubbles under simulated deep-water conditions. Field data were collected during two cruises by the Gulf Integrated Spill Research (GISR) Consortium led by Texas A&M University and funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI). These data included in situ observations from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) of gas bubbles at two natural seep sites in the Gulf and acoustic observations of the natural seep bubble flares in the ocean water column. The acoustic data were from multibeam echosounders, one mounted in a forward-looking orientation on the ROV and another mounted down-looking in the haul of the ship. All of these laboratory and field data were focused on the dynamics of natural gas bubbles at temperatures and pressures favorable for clathrate hydrate formation between the gas and water. Our analyses of this data focused on understanding the mechanisms responsible for gas bubble dissolution within the hydrate stability zone (HSZ) of the oceans. Ice-like hydrate shells may form on the bubble-water interface under these conditions, and it was unknown how this might affect the mass transfer of gas into the ocean. We were able to extract bubble shrinkage rates from the HPWT datasets. Using this data we determined that mass transfer coefficients with and without a hydrate shell match empirical values for bubbles in contaminated systems (so-called dirty bubbles contaminated by naturally occurring surfactants). We also showed that free gas, and not gas hydrate, is the dominant dissolving phase when the hydrate sub-cooling is below 11 degree Celsius (temperature difference between hydrate the hydrate formation temperature and ambient temperator) or the pressure is reducing as bubbles rise through the ocean water column. Using this mass transfer model, our numerical model of bubble dissolution matched the over 200 HPWT experiments with an average error of 10% for predicting the bubble size at the end of an experiment. From field data in the literature, we also observed that gas bubbles dissolve faster when they are initially released, following mass transfer coefficients for so-called clean-bubbles (those not yet contaminated by surfactants). Shortly after release within the HSZ, a hydrate shell forms on the bubble-water interface, and the mass transfer reduces to rates matching those of dirty bubbles. We correlated this transition time from clean to dirty bubble behavior with the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate sub-cooling. With this model for hydrate formation time and using the mass transfer coefficients deduced from the HPWT data, we validated our numerical model for predicting the rise heights of natural seep flares in the oceans. Flare heights are commonly observed in haul-mounted acoustic multibeam data. The numerical model predicts bubbles to rise high in the ocean water column owing to the slower mass transfer rates for dirty bubbles that accompany the majority of their rise time. We found that the numerical model predictions matched the observed flare heights within 5% to 10% accuracy when we compared the rise heights of the largest bubbles released from the seafloor with the bubbles acoustically visible in the multibeam data. Bubbles become acoustically transparent as they shrink to sizes of order 1 mm in diameter for the multibeam frequencies used in the field. The forward-looking multibeam on the ROV also provided data on the lateral spreading of bubbles in natural seep flares. Our analysis of this data showed that spreading follows a diffusion process, with the effective diffusivity correlating with the wobbling length scale of these ellipsoidal bubbles. When we apply this diffusivity in a random displacement model of bubble spreading, our numerical simulations match closely the lateral spread observed by the M3 in the ocean water column. Finally, we compared the seep model predictions for the acoustic properties of these natural seep plumes with that observed by the acoustic instruments in the field. The M3 and EM 302 observations were converted to relative values of target strength using a calibration we obtained in the laboratory for the M3 and using an algorithm from the manufacturer for the EM 302. Comparing the numerical seep model to these data, we obtain good agreement over the whole height of rise of these bubble flares. This further validates the numerical model. Overall, our validated seep model captures the key dynamics of gas bubbles released from natural seeps in the oceans and helps to predict the fate of methane in the water column.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

A simple attitude data filter for three-axis attitude initialization for autonomous ascent of Shuttle-launched spacecraft

A method for accurately initializing spacecraft attitude after release from the Orbiter is described. It is noted that the method is suitable for an autonomous ascent to mission orbit. Test results are given from a FORTRAN simulation of the estimation algorithm using measurement data from a detailed spacecraft dynamics simulation program. The technique here is orbital yaw-gyrocompassing. Attitude is estimated through a Kalman filter, using pitch and roll measurements from an earth sensor, while gyro data provide the system dynamics information. In the tests described, gyro and earth sensor data are generated by an existing control system simulation of earth-search and yaw-gyrocompassing attitude dynamics; they include realistic errors such as delays, random noise and quantization effects. The estimated attitude history is compared with the true attitude history from the simulation program to assess the accuracy and convergence of the filter in the presence of noisy measurements and disturbances, including thruster firings for momentum control. It is noted that since the earth sensor provides direct measurements of pitch and roll, the main criterion of filter performance is yaw accuracy.

Joshi, R. T.↗

Remote Sensing techniques used to characterize soil erosion in southwestern Sao Paulo state

Within randomly sampled squares of a 1 km x 1 km grid, rill/gullies frequency, land cover/land use type and shape of the slopes were extracted from aerial photographs of the Ribeirao Anhumas drainage basin. Mean slope gradient, stream frequency and slope length were calculated on topographic maps. Ground truth data on fine sand/coarse sand ratio and vegetation cover densities were obtained. The MSS-LANDSAT-2 data (CCTs) were analyzed using single-cell, cluster synthesis and slicer algorithms. Graphical and statistical analyses of the data indicate that different slope gradients and land cover/land use types are the most significant factors related to the soil erosion process. The digital analysis of MSS data allowed the association among gray level classes and vegetation cover classes, which defined seven classes. These gray level classes and slope gradient classes were used to rank erosion risk.

Parada, N. D. J.↗