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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO 2 storage projects

This paper by the Energy & Environmental Research Center presents a workflow and modeling approach for delineating a risk-based area of review (AOR) to support a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit for a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The approach combines semianalytical solutions for estimating formation fluid leakage through a hypothetical leaky wellbore with the results of numerical reservoir simulations to define the AOR. The modeling utilizes 1) semianalytical solutions from the peer-reviewed literature for formation fluid leakage through abandoned wellbores by Raven (1990) and Avci (1994), 2) a FORTRAN model compiled and described in Cihan et al. (2011, 2012) called ASLMA (Analytical Solution for Leakage in Multilayered Aquifers), and 3) a computational framework for estimating a risk-based AOR first proposed by Oldenburg et al. (2014, 2016). Therefore, the approach builds upon well-established research and underlying hydrogeological principles that have been upheld for nearly three decades. Moreover, the ASLMA model has been broadly applied to an array of storage projects. The work presented herein extends these earlier works using a custom wrapper written in the software environment, R (R Core Team, 2020), which was developed to perform multiple runs of the ASLMA model using given ranges for one or more input parameters. In addition, the current work simulates the pressure buildup within the storage reservoir in response to CO 2 injection using a compositional simulator to better accommodate the temporospatial evolution of pressure buildup within the storage reservoir that is more accurately modeled using a heterogeneous geologic model and a compositional simulator that accounts for the multiphase interactions. The workflow is demonstrated using a case study for a 180,000-metric-ton-per-year storage project located in the PCOR (Plains CO 2 Reduction) Partnership region. For the storage project evaluated here, under the scenario where the leaky wellbore is open to a saline aquifer (thief zone) between the overlying seal (cap rock) and the underground sources of drinking water (USDW), the risk-based AOR essentially collapses to the areal extent of the CO 2 plume in the storage reservoir because the pressure buildup in the storage reservoir beyond the CO 2 plume is insufficient to drive formation fluids up a hypothetical leaky wellbore into the USDW. However, even under the conservative assumption that the leaky wellbore is not open to a thief zone, beyond the areal extent of the CO 2 plume, the incremental leakage is less than 400 m 3 over 20 years, which represents ~0.0001% or less of the total volume of water contained within the USDW rock volume. As discussed in the text, the threshold criterion for defining the risk-based AOR is site-specific and should be informed by the results of the sensitivity analysis and available site characterization data. The approach outlined in this paper is designed to be protective of USDWs and, therefore, comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act requirements and provisions for the U.S. EPA Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program (Class VI Rule) and North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 43-05-01.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Projected precipitation changes within the Great Lakes and Western Lake Erie Basin: a multi‐model analysis of intensity and seasonality

ABSTRACT The Great Lakes region encompasses the largest freshwater lake network in the world and supports a diverse network of agriculture, transportation, and tourism. Recently, Lake Erie has experienced increased hypoxia events, which have been attributed to agricultural practices and changes in run‐off. Here we examine the projected changes in extreme precipitation events to address concerns regarding regional agriculture, surface run‐off, and subsequent water quality. Precipitation projections within the overall Great Lakes Basin and the Western Lake Erie Basin subregion are examined using climate model simulations of varying spatial resolutions to understand historical precipitation and projected future precipitation. We develop three model ensembles for the historical period (1980–1999) and the mid‐century (2041–2060) that cover a range of spatial resolutions and future emissions scenarios, including: (1) 12 global model members from the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP5 ) using Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP ) 8.5, (2) ten regional climate model ( RCM ) members from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program driven by CMIP3 global models using the A2 emissions scenario, and (3) two high resolution RCM simulations ( RCM4 ) driven by CMIP5 global models using the RCP 8.5 scenario. For the historical period, all model ensembles overestimate winter and spring precipitation, and many of the models simulate a summer drying that is not observed. At mid‐century, most of the models predict a 10–20% increase in precipitation depending on the time of year. Daily probability distribution functions from three model ensembles reveal spring seasonal increases in high precipitation event probabilities when compared to the historical period, suggesting an increase in the frequency of high intensity precipitation at mid‐century. Overall, the presence of lakes or higher spatial resolution does not ensure improved representation of historical processes, and more complex interactions between large‐scale dynamics, local feedbacks, and physical parameterizations drive the model spread.

Basile, Samantha J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected increase of the East Asian summer monsoon ( Meiyu ) in Taiwan by climate models with variable performance

Abstract The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu , produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

Tung, Yu‐Shiang↗
DOE OSTI2016

Variational projection methods for gradient crystal plasticity using Lie algebras

Summary A computational method is developed for evaluating the plastic strain gradient hardening term within a crystal plasticity formulation. While such gradient terms reproduce the size effects exhibited in experiments, incorporating derivatives of the plastic strain yields a nonlocal constitutive model. Rather than applying mixed methods, we propose an alternative method whereby the plastic deformation gradient is variationally projected from the elemental integration points onto a smoothed nodal field. Crucially, the projection utilizes the mapping between Lie groups and algebras in order to preserve essential physical properties, such as orthogonality of the plastic rotation tensor. Following the projection, the plastic strain field is directly differentiated to yield the Nye tensor. Additionally, an augmentation scheme is introduced within the global Newton iteration loop such that the computed Nye tensor field is fed back into the stress update procedure. Effectively, this method results in a fully implicit evolution of the constitutive model within a traditional displacement‐based formulation. An elemental projection method with explicit time integration of the plastic rotation tensor is compared as a reference. A series of numerical tests are performed for several element types in order to assess the robustness of the method, with emphasis placed upon polycrystalline domains and multi‐axis loading. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Truster, Timothy J.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Incremental projection approach of regularization for inverse problems

This paper presents an alternative approach to the regularized least squares solution of ill-posed inverse problems. Instead of solving a minimization problem with an objective function composed of a data term and a regularization term, the regularization information is used to define a projection onto a convex subspace of regularized candidate solutions. The objective function is modified to include the projection of each iterate in the place of the regularization. Numerical experiments based on the problem of motion estimation for geophysical fluid images, show the improvement of the proposed method compared with regularization methods. For the presented test case, the incremental projection method uses 7 times less computation time than the regularization method, to reach the same error target. Moreover, at convergence, the incremental projection is two order of magnitude more accurate than the regularization method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prioritizing the selection of CMIP6 model ensemble members for downscaling projections of CONUS temperature and precipitation

Given the mismatch between the large volume of data archived for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and limited personnel and computational resources for downscaling, only a small fraction of the CMIP6 archive can be downscaled. In this work, we develop an approach to robustly sample projected hydroclimate states in CMIP6 for downscaling to test whether the selection of a single initial condition (IC) ensemble member from each CMIP6 model is sufficient to span the range of modeled hydroclimate over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and CONUS sub-regions. We calculate the pattern-centered root mean square difference of IC ensemble member anomalies relative to each model’s historical climatology for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections over 30-year time periods and compare the ratio of inter-model to intra-model variability for this metric. Regardless of SSP, inter-model variability is generally much greater than intra-model variability at the scales of the CONUS as a whole, as well as for most CONUS sub-regions. However, for some variables and scenarios, inter- and intra-model variability are similar at sub-CONUS scales, indicating that selecting a single IC ensemble member per model may be sufficient to sample the range of projected hydroclimate states in the 21st Century across CONUS, but for specific regions and variables, more careful selection of ensemble members may be necessary. Regionally resolved Taylor diagrams identify where more IC ensemble member downscaling efforts should be focused if resources are available to do so. Our results suggest that, with parsimonious sampling, the requisite computational expense of downscaling temperature and precipitation fields over the CONUS for subsequent CMIP activities may increase only marginally despite the great increase in data volumes with each successive CMIP phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electricity Resilience Projects: State of the Art and Gap Analysis

Utilities and regulators must weigh the benefits of electricity resilience projects against their costs, which would be passed on to customers. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an appropriate method for assessing this tradeoff. Here, in this paper we review the literature on CBA of electricity resilience projects and analyze gaps in the available methods and tools. The costs of resilience projects are typically straightforward to estimate but their benefits — particularly the avoided costs of power interruptions — are complex to quantify and monetize. A common perception among practitioners is that current CBA tools are not sufficiently mature to be adopted into real-world practice. We propose an electricity resilience CBA framework consisting of several elements: risks, physical impacts, power interruptions, economic impacts, and resilience projects. While methods for some elements are well-developed, there is a need for novel approaches to value avoided power interruptions, integrate multiple risks and benefit streams, and incorporate uncertainty.

Cost-benefit analysis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections

Here, we evaluate projected changes in surface water and energy balances and surface–atmosphere coupling in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) for the end of the century (2080–2099). The analyses are based on two ensemble datasets, which follow Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 in the future period, and cover four subdomains (Northern and Southern—NAMZ and SAMZ—Amazon, La Plata Basin—LPB, and Southern Southeast Brazil—SSB). One ensemble consists of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M), while the other consists of their dynamically downscaled version at 25 km horizontal grid spacing using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). As both ensembles are able in reproducing the annual cycle of the components of the surface water and energy balances in the present climate, they can be used in the study of future climate. During the wet season (November–March), both ensembles project a decrease in precipitation over NAMZ and SAMZ (an exception is RegCM4 that projects a slight increase in SAMZ), and an increase across the LPB and SSB. These changes do not cause retreat or expansion of the monsoon area over the continent, which is similar to the present climate (1995–2014). For the wet season, the ensembles are in line with the presence of a strong surface–atmosphere coupling in LPB and SSB, weak coupling in SAMZ and very weak coupling in NAMZ. For future climate, the coupling is even weaker in NAMZ, which may be a driver for the negative changes in precipitation. For the other subdomains, while the ensembles project similar signals of precipitation changes, they disagree with the surface-atmosphere coupling highlighting the uncertainties in future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Null lifts and projective dynamics

We describe natural Hamiltonian systems using projective geometry. The null lift procedure endows the tangent bundle with a projective structure where the null Hamiltonian is identified with a projective conic and induces a Weyl geometry. Projective transformations generate a set of known and new dualities between Hamiltonian systems, as for example the phenomenon of coupling-constant metamorphosis. We conclude outlining how this construction can be extended to the quantum case for Eisenhart–Duval lifts.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

The chemorepellent draxin is involved in hippocampal mossy fiber projection

Highlights: • Draxin deficiency led to abnormal projection of hippocampal mossy fibers. • Draxin receptors were expressed on granule cells dissociated from the dentate gyrus. • Draxin inhibited the growth of hippocampal mossy fibers in vitro. Lamina-specific afferent innervation of the mammalian hippocampus is critical for its function. We investigated the relevance of the chemorepellent draxin to the laminar projections of three principal hippocampal afferents: mossy fibers, entorhinal, and associational/commissural fibers. We observed that draxin deficiency led to abnormal projection of mossy fibers but not other afferents. Immunohistochemical analysis indicated that draxin is expressed in the dentate gyrus and cornu ammonis (CA) 3 at postnatal day 0, when dentate granule cells begin to extend mossy fibers towards CA3. Furthermore, a neurite growth assay using dissociated cells of the neonatal dentate gyrus revealed that draxin inhibited the growth of calbindin-D28k-expressing mossy fibers in vitro. Taken together, we conclude that draxin is a key molecule in the regulation of mossy fiber projections.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Implementations of a Flexible Framework for Managing Geologic Sequestration Modeling Projects

Numerical simulation is a standard practice used to support designing, operating, and monitoring CO 2 injection projects. Although a variety of computational tools have been developed that support the numerical simulation process, many are single-purpose or platform specific and have a prescribed workflow that may or may not be suitable for a particular project. We are developing an open-source, flexible framework named Velo that provides a knowledge management infrastructure and tools to support modeling and simulation for various types of projects in a number of scientific domains. The Geologic Sequestration Software Suite (GS3) is a version of this framework with features and tools specifically tailored for geologic sequestration studies. Because of its general nature, GS3 is being employed in a variety of ways on projects with differing goals. GS3 is being used to support the Sim-SEQ international model comparison study, by providing a collaborative framework for the modeling teams and providing tools for model comparison. Another customized deployment of GS3 has been made to support the permit application process. In this case, GS3 is being used to manage data in support of conceptual model development and provide documentation and provenance for numerical simulations. An additional customized deployment of GS3 is being created for use by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) to aid in the CO2 injection permit application review process in one of its regions. These use cases demonstrate GS3’s flexibility, utility, and broad applicability

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Assessing human rights impacts in corporate development projects

Human rights impact assessment (HRIA) is a process for systematically identifying, predicting and responding to the potential impact on human rights of a business operation, capital project, government policy or trade agreement. Traditionally, it has been conducted as a desktop exercise to predict the effects of trade agreements and government policies on individuals and communities. In line with a growing call for multinational corporations to ensure they do not violate human rights in their activities, HRIA is increasingly incorporated into the standard suite of corporate development project impact assessments. In this context, the policy world's non-structured, desk-based approaches to HRIA are insufficient. Although a number of corporations have commissioned and conducted HRIA, no broadly accepted and validated assessment tool is currently available. The lack of standardisation has complicated efforts to evaluate the effectiveness of HRIA as a risk mitigation tool, and has caused confusion in the corporate world regarding company duties. Hence, clarification is needed. The objectives of this paper are (i) to describe an HRIA methodology, (ii) to provide a rationale for its components and design, and (iii) to illustrate implementation of HRIA using the methodology in two selected corporate development projects—a uranium mine in Malawi and a tree farm in Tanzania. We found that as a prognostic tool, HRIA could examine potential positive and negative human rights impacts and provide effective recommendations for mitigation. However, longer-term monitoring revealed that recommendations were unevenly implemented, dependent on market conditions and personnel movements. This instability in the approach to human rights suggests a need for on-going monitoring and surveillance. -- Highlights: • We developed a novel methodology for corporate human rights impact assessment. • We piloted the methodology on two corporate projects—a mine and a plantation. • Human rights impact assessment exposed impacts not foreseen in ESIA. • Corporations adopted the majority of findings, but not necessarily immediately. • Methodological advancements are expected for monitoring processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Large Energy Projects and Community Benefits Agreements - Some experience from the UK

Large projects are often controversial projects, with wide ranging implications for host localities. Energy projects, including windfarms, nuclear power stations, and the more recent cases of fracking and nuclear waste geological disposal, provide particularly high profile cases. In response to concern there has been the emergence of a whole family of new procedures, processes and methods for their assessment and management, including the advent of Community Benefit Agreements (CBAs). This article examines some of the critical issues around the increasing use of such agreements, including: their justification, relationship to the planning process, scale of benefits (which can be very large), types of benefits, and their management and distribution. The focus is on emerging UK practice in relation to energy projects, but there will also be reference to some relevant practice elsewhere—especially in the EU and North America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Use of significance thresholds to integrate cumulative effects into project-level socio-economic impact assessment in Canada

A longstanding critique of project-level environmental assessment is that it is weak at addressing cumulative effects, and because of this many argue that cumulative effects are best managed at a regional scale. However, in the absence of regional management it is important that project-level assessment supports cumulative effects management as best as possible. In this paper we present case study socio-economic impact assessments of liquefied natural gas development on Aboriginal groups on Canada's west coast. The case studies use an analytical structure modified from typical Canadian practice including unambiguous and non-arbitrary significance thresholds grounded in stakeholder values to focus baselines, impact assessment, and significance determination on cumulative effects. This approach is found to be more capable of informing decision-makers on cumulative effects as well as more rigorous and transparent than typical assessments. Much of this approach is not conceptually new, but at least in western Canada such an approach is not typically used or meaningfully implemented by practitioners. As such, the case studies serve to illustrate how practice can bolster project-level assessment. - Highlights: •Typical project assessment is weak with respect to cumulative effects. •Modified analysis structure and thresholds enable a focus on cumulative effects. •Clear, value-based thresholds make analysis rigorous, transparent, and democratic.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Including health in environmental impact assessments of three mega transport projects in Sydney, Australia: A critical, institutional, analysis

This article details how health impacts came to be assessed in three mega, billion dollar, transport infrastructure projects, two road tunnels and one light rail, in Sydney Australia. The known health impacts of transport decisions include environmental, behavioural and social factors. EIA practice prioritises environmental risks, and there has been scant attention to understanding why this is persistently the case. Here we provide a critical theory lens, using critical realist methodology, to analyse empirical data collected through interviews and documents for the three cases. Our analysis focusses on EIA practice within its institutional context, building on ‘new institutional’ approaches to policy analysis that emphasise actors (the stakeholders involved in the EIA), structures (the ‘rules of the game’ that influence practice in systems), and power. We find that the various actors engaged in the EIAs principally to address particular goals that were pre-determined by the system in which they worked or belonged. Structurally, each EIA was undertaken as a compliance process relatively late in the planning process. Considering project options was not part of the EIA's purpose. Resources to undertake the EIAs were provided by those funding the projects (“the proponents”) and determined the types of issues to be considered. The full range of links between transport and health were not identified. Concerning power, health impacts were considered through inter-professional technical negotiation. The inability to engage in the fundamental options driving projects meant impacted communities questioned the validity of the EIA, and the health assessment within this. Our institutional analysis provides important knowledge about how the EIAs preferenced a focus on specific health risks to the detriment of the known broader determinants that shape the health impacts of transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Mining project's economic impact on local communities, as a social determinant of health: A documentary analysis of environmental impact statements

Australian mining developments cause indirect economic impacts on nearby communities leading to poor health and wellbeing of local residents. Economic instability is a recognised social determinant of health (SDoH); however, SDoHs are rarely considered adequately in Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs). This research aimed to determine the extent economic impacts as a SDoH are considered in three Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) of mining projects in the New South Wales, Australia. We adopted an exploratory case study design following Yin (2012). Three cases in New South Wales, Australia, were purposively sampled as being of concern to the local community who had sought legal advice about the content of the EIS (although not necessarily for health reasons). Two were open cut mines: Watermark located in the Liverpool Plains and Warkworth Continuation in the Hunter Valley Region. The third is a comparative case – the underground Mandalong Southern Extension located in Lake Macquarie. We adapted a health-focused EIA coding framework to investigate how economic indicators as SDoH were explicitly mentioned in EISs and applied this to the three cases. Economic indicators as SDoH were rarely considered. There was a greater focus on population characteristics rather than the potential economic impacts of the mining projects on the communities. Causal association of economic determinants and health outcomes were insufficiently reported compared to best practice, and health data were not used to inform assessments. Despite two EISs – Warkworth Continuation and Watermark – associating some economic indicators to health outcomes, impacts were not adequately discussed when compared to the known literature on economic impacts of mines. Our findings show that the three EISs were inadequately utilised to determine economic impacts of mining projects on the health and wellbeing of local communities. The evidence base linking economic impacts of mines to health is underdeveloped, which compromises assessing the quality of economic coverage in EISs. EIA scoping should enable sufficient inclusion of broader determinants of health using appropriate methodology, and the economic-focused content of EISs should be subject to rigorous peer-review process to fully inform government approvals for projects. Our methods lend themselves to research in other contexts to investigate the quality of EIAs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants

Federal hydropower plants account for approximately half of installed US conventional hydropower capacity, and are an important part of the national renewable energy portfolio. Utilizing the strong linear relationship between the US Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff and annual hydropower generation, a runoff-based assessment approach is introduced in this study to project changes in annual and regional hydropower generation in multiple power marketing areas. Future climate scenarios are developed with a series of global and regional climate models, and the model output is bias-corrected to be consistent with observed data for the recent past. Using this approach, the median decrease in annual generation at federal projects is projected to be less than –2 TWh, with an estimated ensemble uncertainty of ±9 TWh. Although these estimates are similar to the recently observed variability in annual hydropower generation, and may therefore appear to be manageable, significantly seasonal runoff changes are projected and it may pose significant challenges in water systems with higher limits on reservoir storage and operational flexibility. Lastly, future assessments will be improved by incorporating next-generation climate models, by closer examination of extreme events and longer-term change, and by addressing the interactions among hydropower and other water uses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗