Surprising rationality in probability judgment: Assessing two competing models
Not Available
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Not Available
Not Available
Not Available
Not Available
Not Available
Purpose: To perform validation of risk predictions for late rectal toxicity (LRT) in prostate cancer obtained using a new approach to synthesize published normal tissue complication data. Methods and Materials: A published study survey was performed to identify the dose-response relationships for LRT derived from nonoverlapping patient populations. To avoid mixing models based on different symptoms, the emphasis was placed on rectal bleeding. The selected models were used to compute the risk estimates of grade 2+ and grade 3+ LRT for an independent validation cohort composed of 269 prostate cancer patients with known toxicity outcomes. Risk estimates from single studies were combined to produce consolidated risk estimates. An agreement between the actuarial toxicity incidence 3 years after radiation therapy completion and single-study or consolidated risk estimates was evaluated using the concordance correlation coefficient. Goodness of fit for the consolidated risk estimates was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: A total of 16 studies of grade 2+ and 5 studies of grade 3+ LRT met the inclusion criteria. The consolidated risk estimates of grade 2+ and 3+ LRT were constructed using 3 studies each. For grade 2+ LRT, the concordance correlation coefficient for the consolidated risk estimates was 0.537 compared with 0.431 for the best-fit single study. For grade 3+ LRT, the concordance correlation coefficient for the consolidated risk estimates was 0.477 compared with 0.448 for the best-fit single study. No evidence was found for a lack of fit for the consolidated risk estimates using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P=.531 and P=.397 for grade 2+ and 3+ LRT, respectively). Conclusions: In a large cohort of prostate cancer patients, selected sets of consolidated risk estimates were found to be more accurate predictors of LRT than risk estimates derived from any single study.
Purpose: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) bounce is a temporary elevation of the PSA level above a prior nadir. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the frequency of a PSA bounce following high-dose-rate (HDR) interstitial brachytherapy for the treatment of prostate cancer is associated with individual treatment fraction size. Methods and Materials: Between 1999 and 2014, 554 patients underwent treatment of low- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer with definitive HDR brachytherapy as monotherapy and had ≥3 subsequent PSA measurements. Four different fraction sizes were used: 950 cGy × 4 fractions, 1200 cGy × 2 fractions, 1350 cGy × 2 fractions, 1900 cGy × 1 fraction. Four definitions of PSA bounce were applied: ≥0.2, ≥0.5, ≥1.0, and ≥2.0 ng/mL above the prior nadir with a subsequent return to the nadir. Results: The median follow-up period was 3.7 years. The actuarial 3-year rate of PSA bounce for the entire cohort was 41.3%, 28.4%, 17.4%, and 6.8% for nadir +0.2, +0.5, +1.0, and +2.0 ng/mL, respectively. The 3-year rate of PSA bounce >0.2 ng/mL was 42.2%, 32.1%, 41.0%, and 59.1% for the 950-, 1200-, 1350-, and 1900-cGy/fraction levels, respectively (P=.002). The hazard ratio for bounce >0.2 ng/mL for patients receiving a single fraction of 1900 cGy compared with those receiving treatment in multiple fractions was 1.786 (P=.024). For patients treated with a single 1900-cGy fraction, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year rates of PSA bounce exceeding the Phoenix biochemical failure definition (nadir +2 ng/mL) were 4.5%, 18.7%, and 18.7%, respectively, higher than the rates for all other administered dose levels (P=.025). Conclusions: The incidence of PSA bounce increases with single-fraction HDR treatment. Knowledge of posttreatment PSA kinetics may aid in decision making regarding management of potential biochemical failures.
Not Available
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulations as a part of the standard current practice for designing marine structures to survive extreme sea states. These environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height (H s ) and either energy period (T e ) or peak period (T p ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) is a standard design practice for generating environmental contours. This paper develops enhanced methodologies for data analysis prior to the application of the I-FORM, including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the variables under consideration as well as new distribution and parameter fitting techniques. As a result, these modifications better represent the measured data and, therefore, should contribute to the development of more realistic representations of environmental contours of extreme sea states for determining design loads for marine structures.
Not Available
Not Available
Explore the source record for details and available documents.