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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Predictions in Individual Patient: Late Rectal Toxicity

Purpose: To perform validation of risk predictions for late rectal toxicity (LRT) in prostate cancer obtained using a new approach to synthesize published normal tissue complication data. Methods and Materials: A published study survey was performed to identify the dose-response relationships for LRT derived from nonoverlapping patient populations. To avoid mixing models based on different symptoms, the emphasis was placed on rectal bleeding. The selected models were used to compute the risk estimates of grade 2+ and grade 3+ LRT for an independent validation cohort composed of 269 prostate cancer patients with known toxicity outcomes. Risk estimates from single studies were combined to produce consolidated risk estimates. An agreement between the actuarial toxicity incidence 3 years after radiation therapy completion and single-study or consolidated risk estimates was evaluated using the concordance correlation coefficient. Goodness of fit for the consolidated risk estimates was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Results: A total of 16 studies of grade 2+ and 5 studies of grade 3+ LRT met the inclusion criteria. The consolidated risk estimates of grade 2+ and 3+ LRT were constructed using 3 studies each. For grade 2+ LRT, the concordance correlation coefficient for the consolidated risk estimates was 0.537 compared with 0.431 for the best-fit single study. For grade 3+ LRT, the concordance correlation coefficient for the consolidated risk estimates was 0.477 compared with 0.448 for the best-fit single study. No evidence was found for a lack of fit for the consolidated risk estimates using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P=.531 and P=.397 for grade 2+ and 3+ LRT, respectively). Conclusions: In a large cohort of prostate cancer patients, selected sets of consolidated risk estimates were found to be more accurate predictors of LRT than risk estimates derived from any single study.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Increasing Fractional Doses Increases the Probability of Benign PSA Bounce in Patients Undergoing Definitive HDR Brachytherapy for Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) bounce is a temporary elevation of the PSA level above a prior nadir. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the frequency of a PSA bounce following high-dose-rate (HDR) interstitial brachytherapy for the treatment of prostate cancer is associated with individual treatment fraction size. Methods and Materials: Between 1999 and 2014, 554 patients underwent treatment of low- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer with definitive HDR brachytherapy as monotherapy and had ≥3 subsequent PSA measurements. Four different fraction sizes were used: 950 cGy × 4 fractions, 1200 cGy × 2 fractions, 1350 cGy × 2 fractions, 1900 cGy × 1 fraction. Four definitions of PSA bounce were applied: ≥0.2, ≥0.5, ≥1.0, and ≥2.0 ng/mL above the prior nadir with a subsequent return to the nadir. Results: The median follow-up period was 3.7 years. The actuarial 3-year rate of PSA bounce for the entire cohort was 41.3%, 28.4%, 17.4%, and 6.8% for nadir +0.2, +0.5, +1.0, and +2.0 ng/mL, respectively. The 3-year rate of PSA bounce >0.2 ng/mL was 42.2%, 32.1%, 41.0%, and 59.1% for the 950-, 1200-, 1350-, and 1900-cGy/fraction levels, respectively (P=.002). The hazard ratio for bounce >0.2 ng/mL for patients receiving a single fraction of 1900 cGy compared with those receiving treatment in multiple fractions was 1.786 (P=.024). For patients treated with a single 1900-cGy fraction, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year rates of PSA bounce exceeding the Phoenix biochemical failure definition (nadir +2 ng/mL) were 4.5%, 18.7%, and 18.7%, respectively, higher than the rates for all other administered dose levels (P=.025). Conclusions: The incidence of PSA bounce increases with single-fraction HDR treatment. Knowledge of posttreatment PSA kinetics may aid in decision making regarding management of potential biochemical failures.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Application of principal component analysis (PCA) and improved joint probability distributions to the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) for predicting extreme sea states

Environmental contours describing extreme sea states are generated as the input for numerical or physical model simulations as a part of the standard current practice for designing marine structures to survive extreme sea states. These environmental contours are characterized by combinations of significant wave height (H s ) and either energy period (T e ) or peak period (T p ) values calculated for a given recurrence interval using a set of data based on hindcast simulations or buoy observations over a sufficient period of record. The use of the inverse first-order reliability method (I-FORM) is a standard design practice for generating environmental contours. This paper develops enhanced methodologies for data analysis prior to the application of the I-FORM, including the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to create an uncorrelated representation of the variables under consideration as well as new distribution and parameter fitting techniques. As a result, these modifications better represent the measured data and, therefore, should contribute to the development of more realistic representations of environmental contours of extreme sea states for determining design loads for marine structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Most theoretical approaches used in nuclear astrophysics to model the nucleosynthesis of heavy elements incorporate the so-called statistical model in order to describe the excitation and decay properties of atomic nuclei. One of the basic assumptions of this model is the validity of the Brink–Axel hypothesis and the related concept of so-called photon strength functions to describe γ-ray transition probabilities. We present a novel experimental approach that allows for the first time to experimentally determine the photon strength function simultaneously in two independent ways by a unique combination of quasi-monochromatic photon beams and a newly implemented γ–γ coincidence setup. This technique does not assume a priori the validity of the Brink–Axel hypothesis and sets a benchmark in terms of the detection sensitivity for measuring decay properties of photo-excited states below the neutron separation energy. The data for the spherical off-shell nucleus 128 Te were obtained for γ-ray beam-energy settings between 3 MeV and 9 MeV in steps of 130 keV for the lower beam energies and in steps of up to 280 keV for the highest beam settings. We present a quantitative analysis on the consistency of the derived photon strength function with the Brink–Axel hypothesis. The data clearly demonstrate a discrepancy of up to a factor of two between the photon strength functions extracted from the photoabsorption and photon emission process, respectively. In addition, we observe that the photon strength functions are not independent of the excitation energy, as usually assumed. Thus, we conclude, that the Brink–Axel hypothesis is not strictly fulfilled in the excitation-energy region below the neutron separation threshold (S n = 8.78 MeV) for the studied case of 128 Te.

Not Available

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗