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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,171 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Neutrino-induced charged-current coherent pion production for constraining the muon neutrino flux at DUNE

We study neutrino-induced charged-current coherent pion production ( ν μ CC - Coh π ) as a tool for constraining the neutrino flux at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). The neutrino energy and flavor in the process can be directly reconstructed from the outgoing particles, making it especially useful to specifically constrain the muon neutrino component of the total flux. The cross section of this process can be obtained using the Adler relation with the π -Ar elastic scattering cross section taken either from external data or, as we explore, from a simultaneous measurement in the DUNE near detector. We develop a procedure that leverages ν μ CC - Coh π events to fit for the neutrino flux while simultaneously accounting for relevant effects in the cross section. We project that this method has the statistical power to constrain the uncertainty on the normalization of the flux at its peak to a few percent. This study demonstrates the potential utility of a ν μ CC - Coh π flux constraint, though further work will be needed to determine the range of validity and precision of the Adler relation upon which it relies, as well as to measure the π -Ar elastic scattering cross section to the requisite precision. We discuss the experimental and phenomenological developments necessary to unlock the ν μ CC - Coh π process as a “standard candle” for neutrino experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

First measurement of neutron capture multiplicity in neutrino-oxygen neutral-current quasielasticlike interactions using an accelerator neutrino beam

We report the first measurement of neutron capture multiplicity in neutrino-oxygen neutral-current quasielasticlike interactions at the gadolinium-loaded Super-Kamiokande detector using the T2K neutrino beam, which has a peak energy of about 0.6 GeV. A total of 30 neutral-current quasielasticlike event candidates were selected from T2K data corresponding to an exposure of 1.76 × 10 20 protons on target. The 𝛾 ray signals resulting from neutron captures were identified using a neural network. The flux-averaged mean neutron capture multiplicity was measured to be 1.37 ± 0.33 (stat.)$^{+0.17}_{−0.27}$ (syst.), which is compatible within 2.3 sigma than predictions obtained using our nominal simulation. We discuss potential sources of systematic uncertainty in the prediction and demonstrate that a significant portion of this discrepancy arises from the modeling of hadron-nucleus interactions in the detector medium.

particle interactions↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Learning for Multigroup Cross-Section Representation in Two-Step Core Calculations

Here we investigate using deep learning, a type of machine-learning algorithm employing multiple layers of artificial neurons, for the mathematical representation of multigroup cross sections for use in the Griffin reactor multiphysics code for two-step deterministic neutronics calculations. A three-dimensional fuel element typical of a high-temperature gas reactor as well as a two-dimensional sodium-cooled fast reactor lattice are modeled using the Serpent Monte Carlo code, and multigroup macroscopic cross sections are generated for various state parameters to produce a training data set and a separate validation data set. A fully connected, feedforward neural network is trained using the open-source PyTorch machine-learning framework, and its accuracy is compared against the standard piecewise linear interpolation model. Additionally, we provide in this work a generic technique for propagating the cross-section model errors up to the k eff using sensitivity coefficients with the first-order uncertainty propagation rule. Quantifying the eigenvalue error due to the cross-section regression errors is especially practical for appropriately selecting the mathematical representation of the cross sections. We demonstrate that the artificial neural network model produces lower errors and therefore enables better accuracy relative to the piecewise linear model when the cross sections exhibit nonlinear dependencies; especially when a coarse grid is employed, where the errors can be halved by the artificial neural network. However, for linearly dependent multigroup cross sections as found for the sodium-cooled fast reactor case, a simpler linear regression outperforms deeper networks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Specification of EBR-II Laser Profilometry Data

All laser profilometry data stored in FIPD were originally measured using the element laser profilometer system in HFEF/N. The irradiated fuel elements or pins were scanned by a laser beam to measure the outer diameter with position mapping of the spacer wire. The normal operation and data collection were performed automatically with HFEF/N Data Acquisition and Process Control System (DAPCS). With the digital control system, measured laser profilometry data were recorded in digital form on magnetic tapes, different from the analog contact profilometry data recorded by strip-chart record sheets. Two documents contained most of the important details about laser profilometry measurements. The first one is the operational manual of the laser profilometer (title: Element laser profilometer (ELP) operation and maintenance manual, HFEF/N OMM 4329, DOC. NO. W0171-0149-ES-01). This manual provides: (1) description of laser profilometer including the functions of each component (transceiver, retroreflector, clamping guide, shielding enclosure, electronic controller, etc.); (2) step-by-step guidance for calibrations, operations and measurements; and (3) maintenance procedures and other details of the element laser profilometer. Since first issued on 12/1/1986, several revisions/changes of the manual were developed to update the measurement accuracies and other factors for the laser profilometer system. The second document is a publicly accessible conference article titled “the element laser profilometer system in HFEF/N.” This article summarizes important functions and parameters of the laser profilometer. The range of measurements and the uncertainties reported in the article were consistent with the values reported in the operational manual.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

STAT7 v2.0 Verification and Validation Report

This report documents the software testing which has been performed for STAT7 Version 2.0 (hereafter STAT7 v2.0), a code for the statistical propagation of uncertainties in steady-state thermal hydraulics (TH) analysis of plate-fueled research and test reactors. The key capabilities addressed in this testing were selected based on the use of the software for analysis work supporting the conversion to low-enriched uranium fuel of U.S. High-Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR) such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Reactor (MITR-II). This testing scope includes comparison of the code’s statistical processing capabilities using statistical tests, comparison of coolant property evaluations to NIST data tables, and systematic comparison of key TH solver capabilities to the results of hand calculations and to predictions from PLTEMP/ANL Version 4.4. The

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Specifications of FIPD Fission Gas Release Data

All fission gas release data stored in the Fuels Irradiation & Physics Database (FIPD) was originally measured using the Gas Assay, Sample and Recharge (GASR) System in the Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF). It is therefore called GASR data in FIPD. During the measurement of a sample, such as an irradiated EBR-II fuel element/capsule, a pinhole-sized region near the top of the element plenum was melted by a laser. Plenum gas then expanded into a calibrated volume (note: in this document, “sample” and “capsule/element” are used interchangeably consistent with GASR documents in FIPD). The pressure rise in the volume was recorded. Helium backfilling and expansion was then performed to determine the sample (e.g., fuel element plenum) volume using Boyle’s Law and assuming ideal gas behavior at constant temperature. With the plenum volume and the recorded pressure rise, the sample (e.g., fuel element plenum) pressure was derived with assumption of ideal gas law behavior. The plenum volume and pressure as well as the cladding temperature during the measurement were collected (GASR data in FIPD). Other records associated with the fission gas release data include: raw GASR data records including volumes and post-puncture pressures of seal head/sealing head and manifold, calibration data, backfilling gas pressure data, and the data analysis records. A sample(s) of the fission gas released from the plenum was collected by the GASR system into sample bottles. The chemical and isotopic composition of the gas sample was analyzed separately from GASR data, and will be discussed in a separate specification. The plenum volume, pressure, and cladding temperature during the measurement are typically utilized to determine the number of moles of gas in the plenum. This quantity is often compared to the number of moles of gas generated by fission events. However, calculating these values and their associated uncertainty is beyond the scope of this document, as it necessitates additional assumptions. The most important document to understand the FIPD fission gas data is the GASR operational manual (title: Gas Assay, Sample and Recharge System (GASR) operation and maintenance manual, HFEF/N OMM 4381, DOC. NO. W0018-0032-ES-00). This manual provides: (1) description of the GASR and the functions of each component (laser drilling, welding, seal head/sealing head, manifold, vacuum system, sample system, purge and gas tag system, etc.); (2) step-by-step guidance on calibrations, operations, and measurements; and (3) maintenance procedures and other details relating to the structure and operation of the GASR. Note that the original GASR operated until 2020. A new GASR with the same design and measurement methodology was installed in 2021. The specifications of the GASR presented on the HFEF website at this time are consistent with the ones given in the operational manual. The methods to calculate the plenum volume and pressures were not included in the operational manual, but were recorded in the legacy data analysis files. Details of the methods are given in Chapter 3.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear properties with semilocal momentum-space regularized chiral interactions beyond N 2 LO

We present a comprehensive investigation of few-nucleon systems as well as light and medium-mass nuclei up to A = 48 using the current Low Energy Nuclear Physics International Collaboration two-nucleon interactions in combination with the third-order (N 2 LO) three-nucleon forces. To address the systematic overbinding of nuclei starting from A ≈ 10 found in our earlier study utilizing the N 2 LO two- and three-nucleon forces, we take into account higher-order corrections to the two-nucleon potentials up through fifth order in chiral effective field theory. Here, the resulting Hamiltonian can be completely determined using the A = 3 binding energies and selected nucleon-deuteron cross sections as input. It is then shown to predict other nucleon-deuteron scattering observables and spectra of light p-shell nuclei, for which a detailed correlated truncation error analysis is performed, in agreement with experimental data. Moreover, the predicted ground state energies of nuclei in the oxygen isotopic chain from 14 O to 26 O as well as 40 Ca and 48 Ca show a remarkably good agreement with experimental values, given that the Hamiltonian is fixed completely from the A ≤ 3 data, once the fourth-order (N 3 LO) corrections to the two-nucleon interactions are taken into account. On the other hand, the charge radii are found to be underpredicted by ≈10% for the oxygen isotopes and by almost 20% for 40 Ca and 48 Ca.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental validation of a high fidelity Monte Carlo neutron transport model of the MIT graphite exponential pile

High-fidelity modeling and simulation were performed for the MIT graphite exponential pile (MGEP) using Monte Carlo neutron transport codes OpenMC and MCNP, and the results were validated by experimental data. The MGEP is being used as the test bed for the design of an autonomous control system for the pile's neutron flux distribution. The main contribution of this work is to generate the training data sets of neutron flux distributions with different locations of control rods that perturb the neutron flux profiles. First, code -to-code cross verification between OpenMC and MCNP was performed to ensure consistency of the numerical modeling within statistical uncertainties. To validate the accuracy of this high-fidelity model, a series of neutron flux measurements were conducted using a Helium-3 (He-3) neutron detector on a mobile platform that is placed inside the pile. Second, the neutron flux profiles were measured in four vertical layers of interest, and compared to the corresponding simulation results. The comparison results shows that the root mean square error is less than 2.5% in the two upper layers, and less than 4.5% in all four measured layers. Here the results validated the accuracy of the modeling and simulation. Finally, the relative change of the neutron flux profiles from moving control rods was analyzed, which identified the layer that has the best sensitivity regarding the control rods movements. Thus, this work identified and provided training data sets of both simulated and experimental neutron flux profiles in the most sensitive layer, paving the path forward to the real-time experimental demonstration of the autonomous control system.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Criteria for Retention of 3013 S1 Containers Based on Relative Risk and Expert Judgment

An evaluation was performed to assess the suitability of thirty-three 3013 containers proposed for retention. These containers have moisture levels greater than 0.08 wt.% – the S1 population. The remainder of the S1 population stored at SRS will be down blended and disposed of by the end of 2028. Based on field surveillance and shelf-life data available to date as well as informed technical judgment, no container is currently expected to fail in its 50-year storage period. However, corrosion risk varies across the S1 population. Relative risks were evaluated using predicted Consensus Scores and their 95% Upper Prediction Limits (UPLs). The predicted values are based on a statistical model of Consensus Score as a function of moisture, chloride, and whether the packaged material was electrorefining scrap packaged at Hanford. Consensus Score has been shown to be a useful indicator of corrosion potential, and the UPL captures uncertainty in the model predictions, providing a conservative indicator of corrosion potential. Using UPLs to determine relative risks, together with expert review, three containers were identified as not suitable for retention, and the remainder were determined to be suitable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulating self-powered neutron detector responses to infer burnup-induced power distribution perturbations in next-generation light water reactors

Understanding how 3D power distribution will be monitored throughout reactor core volumetric space in next-generation nuclear power reactors is crucial to the design, deployment, and licensing of these reactors. Although numerous techniques exist for 3D power distribution monitoring based on the response of both in situ and ex situ sensors currently implemented or proposed for use in the US reactor fleet, crucial details about these techniques are often unclear. The publicly available documentation does not include information such as how well these techniques are characterized and optimized in their implementations and the levels of uncertainty in the inferred 3D power distribution. The work described herein investigated a recently developed 3D power distribution inferencing method as applied to two next-generation reactor simulations: (1) the NuScale small modular reactor design and (2) the Westinghouse AP1000 design, both of which contain in-core strings of vanadium self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This investigation considered a range of SPND string sensor densities, as well as a range of 3D power distribution axial segment sizes. In this work, SPND response simulation is informed by neutron flux calculations in representative homogenized cores. For the different sensor densities and power distribution axial segment sizes in these simulations, the average solution error, solver iterations, and run time were tracked to parameterize the sensor-core configuration.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian analysis of nucleon-nucleon scattering data in pionless effective field theory

We perform Bayesian model calibration of two-nucleon (NN) low-energy constants (LECs) appearing in an NN interaction based on pionless effective field theory (πEFT). The calibration is carried out for potentials constructed using naive dimensional analysis in NN relative momenta (p) up to next-to-leading order [NLO, O(p 2 )] and next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order [N3LO, O(p 4 )]. We consider two classes of pionless πEFT potential: one that acts in all partial waves and another that is dominated by s-wave physics. The two classes produce broadly similar results for calibrations to NN data up to E lab = 5 MeV. Our analysis accounts for the correlated uncertainties that arise from the truncation of the pionless πEFT. We simultaneously estimate both the πEFT LECs and the parameters that quantify the truncation error. This permits the first quantitative estimates of the pionless πEFT breakdown scale, Λ b : the 95% intervals are Λ b ∈[50.11,63.03] MeV at NLO and Λ b ∈[72.27,88.54] MeV at N3LO. Furthermore, invoking naive dimensional analysis for the NN potential, therefore, does not lead to consistent results across orders in pionless πEFT. This exemplifies the possible use of Bayesian tools to identify inconsistencies in a proposed EFT power counting.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

First Measurement of 𝐴 = 4 Hypernuclei and Antihypernuclei at the LHC

In this Letter, the first evidence of the $^4_{\bar{Λ}}$$\overline{He}$ antihypernucleus is presented, along with the first measurement at the LHC of the production of (anti)hypernuclei with mass number 𝐴 = 4, specifically (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$H and (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$He. In addition, the antiparticle-to-particle ratios for both hypernuclei ($^4_{\bar{Λ}}$$\bar{H}$⁡/$^4_Λ$H and $^4_{\bar{Λ}}$$\overline{He}$/$^4_Λ$He) are shown, which are sensitive to the baryochemical potential of the strongly interacting matter created in heavy-ion collisions. The results are obtained from a data sample of central Pb-Pb collisions, collected during the 2018 LHC data taking at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{𝑠_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The yields measured for the average of the charge-conjugated states are found to be [0.78 ± 0.19⁢(stat) ± 0.17⁢(syst)] × 10 −6 for the (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$H and [1.08 ± 0.34⁢(stat)± 0.20⁢(syst)] × 10 −6 for the (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$He, and the measured antiparticle-to-particle ratios are in agreement with unity. The presence of (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$H and (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$He excited states is expected to strongly enhance the production yield of these hypernuclei. The yield values exhibit a combined deviation of 3.3⁢𝜎 from the theoretical ground-state-only expectation, while the inclusion of the excited states in the calculations leads to an agreement within 0.6⁢𝜎 with the present measurements. Additionally, the measured (anti)$^4_Λ$H and (anti)⁢$^4_Λ$He masses are compatible with the world-average values within the uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Alignment of the straw tracking detectors for the Fermilab Muon $g − 2$ experiment and systematic studies for a muon electric dipole moment measurement

The Fermilab Muon $g-2$ experiment is currently preparing for its fourth data-taking period (Run-4). The experiment-wide effort on the analysis of Run-1 data is nearing completion, with the announcement of the first result expected in the coming months. The final goal of the experiment is to determine the muon magnetic anomaly to a precision of 140 ppb. This level of precision will provide indirect evidence of new physics, if the central value agrees with the previously-measured value of the magnetic anomaly. Essential in reducing the systematic uncertainty, through measurements of the muon beam profile, are the in-vacuum straw tracking detectors. A crucial prerequisite in obtaining accurate distributions of the beam profile is the internal alignment of the tracking detectors, which is described in this thesis. As a result of this position calibration, the tracking efficiency has increased by 3%, while the track quality increased by 4%. This thesis also discusses an additional measurement that will be made using the tracking detectors: a search for an electric dipole moment (EDM) of the muon, through the direct detection of an oscillation in the average vertical angle of the electron from the muon decay. An observation of a muon EDM would be evidencemore » of new physics and would provide a new source of CP violation in the charged lepton sector. Essential in measuring the EDM are accurate and precise estimations of potential non-zero radial and longitudinal magnetic fields, which were estimated using the Run-1 data. In addition, a preliminary analysis using the Run-1 data was undertaken to estimate the available precision for the magnetic anomaly measurement using the tracking detectors.« less

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

HFIR LEU High Density Silicide Dispersion Optimized Design Neutronics Analyses with PHAME

A high-fidelity neutronics model of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) with the low-enriched uranium (LEU) high-density silicide dispersion Optimized fuel design was updated and analyzed to generate reactor physics-based metrics to support follow-on thermal hydraulic and transient analyses of this design. The Python HFIR Analysis and Measurement Engine (PHAME) was also updated to enhance the automation capabilities of the framework developed and maintained to perform these reactor physics modeling and simulation efforts. The automated framework significantly increases the efficiency and reproducibility to design and thoroughly analyzes HFIR LEU core designs, changes, and uncertainties. Reactor physics metrics evaluated include but are not limited to fuel depletion, cycle length, fission rate density distributions, axial power peaking factors, kinetics data, reactivity coefficients, control element worths, heat deposition rates, and decay heat. These neutronics results provide essential input to follow-on steady state thermal, thermal hydraulic and reactor transient analyses, which are subject of other reports. The Optimized design operates at 95 MW to maintain HFIR’s current highly enriched uranium core performance level at 85 MW.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of an Improved RELAP5-3D Model for the High Temperature Test Facility

High-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) are rapidly approaching deployment. Confidence in transient analysis of these systems for design, optimization, and licensing calculations requires modeling and simulation tools that have been validated against data relevant to HTGR conditions. The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) is an integral effects thermal hydraulics test facility for prismatic HTGRs. In spring and summer of 2019, HTTF was used for a series of experiments that now serve as the basis for the OECD/NEA Thermal Hydraulic Code Validation Benchmark for High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors using HTTF Data (HTGR T/H Benchmark). This benchmark contains problems for systems code, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and coupled systems code/CFD modeling representing lower plenum mixing and both the depressurized and pressurized conduction cooldown (DCC and PCC respectively) transients. Benchmark problems include exercises for code-to-code and code-to-data comparisons as well as an exercise for error scaling between HTTF and the Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor, which serves as the basis for the HTTF design. Previous analysis as part of the HTGR T/H benchmark used a RELAP5-3D model developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and demonstrated an ability to reproduce trends in the measured data but difficulties reproducing experimental values within their uncertainty. These difficulties were largely attributed to assumptions made during the development of the initial RELAP5-3D model, which predated the HTTF experiments. A significant cause of difficulty reproducing the measured temperatures may be the radial nodalization of the previous RELAP5-3D model. The new model provides a finer nodalization to assess the impact of radial nodalization and allows for asymmetric heating within the core, which was a feature of multiple HTTF experiments. In this paper, we present the new RELAP5-3D model of HTTF. In addition to describing the new model, this paper compares the new and old models and provides results for a full-power steady state, a DCC, and a PCC in HTTF. These analyses are based on the code-to-code comparison exercises for the DCC and PCC problems of the HTGR T/H benchmark. We present the results of these exercises from the new model and compare them to the results of the old model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Quality of Salt Property Measurements

Data quality is a key element to assessing technical uncertainties in property values of salt mixtures that are pivotal in molten salt reactor (MSR) design and safety assessments under both normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. Key properties for the salt mixtures being evaluated for use in MSRs have not been measured and the few values for relevant salt compositions available in the literature are inconsistent and not suitable for use in licensing. The applications of established techniques commonly used for property measurements to molten salts are still experimental in nature and vetted consensus standards are not yet available. Work is in progress to develop and standardize methods through DOE and commercially funded projects. The quality of measured property values limits the current ability to reliably design equipment and model normal MSR operation and the effects of operational upsets. Insights from experimental measurements pertinent to reducing technical uncertainty for regulatory development are summarized in this report. Quality controls are recommended for key properties based on the mathematical calculations used to derive property values and methods used to measure experimental values and salt produced for use in the measurements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Correlation Methods for Use in Criticality Safety

Although their adoption by practitioners has been limited, the introduction of similarity indices in criticality safety was a major step forward in reducing the reliance on expert judgement in discerning applicable experiments for the validation of new appliations in criticality safety analyses. Similarity indices have been successfully employed in bias trending and data assimilation techniques, but it is often unclear which acceptance criteria should be used. In their 2004 paper, Broadhead et al. specify the most widely used similarity parameter, ck, as an acceptance cutoff at 0.9. (Broadhead et al., ”Sensitivity and Uncertainty-Based Criticality Safety Validation Techniques,” Nucl. Sci. Eng. 146, 340–366, 2004). Experiments with a ck < 0.9 are often not considered applicable for code validation. This heuristic is based on quantitative studies and engineering judgement, but in some cases, experiments with ck < 0.9 can be used to accurately estimate computational bias. This suggests that further analysis is needed to determine what components of ck are driving applicability and accuracy in bias estimation. For cases in which applicable experiments may not be available (as is the case with UF6 transport canisters), understanding what distinguishes experiments in providing adequate bias estimates aside from just the similarity index is particularly necessary. To further the goal to better interpret ck values, several visualization tools were developed to assist in the investigation of which components of ck are driving applicability.

ck↗
DOE OSTI2020

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗