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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Multiscale spatial analysis of fracture nodes in two dimensions

Spatial arrangement of fractures as a function of scale is an important component of fracture quantification for inferential and predictive modeling. Available methods that analyze fracture spatial arrangement are based on one-dimensional spacing data; therefore, they are limited to semi-parallel fractures. Such methods cannot be applied to fracture networks in higher dimensions, particularly when fractures have different orientations. Here to characterize fracture arrangements in two dimensions, we propose using Ripley’s K-function, as a method of point pattern analysis, to quantify spatial arrangement of fracture nodes. Fracture nodes, such as barycenters, intersection points, and tips, are point-based representations of fracture locations and connectivity within the fracture network. We introduce formulations for isotropic as well as directional analyses of spatial arrangement. In addition, we derive formulations for edge correction in circular and rectangular study domains. Finally, we demonstrate applications of Ripley’s K-function on two natural fracture datasets. Our proposed method supports quantification and characterization of fracture spatial arrangements that allow practitioners to build representative models of fractures in the subsurface.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Confronting lattice parton distributions with global QCD analysis

We present the first Monte Carlo based global QCD analysis of spin-averaged and spin-dependent parton distribution functions (PDFs) that includes nucleon isovector matrix elements in coordinate space from lattice QCD. We investigate the degree of universality of the extracted PDFs when the lattice and experimental data are treated under the same conditions within the Bayesian likelihood analysis. For the unpolarized sector, we find rather weak constraints from the current lattice data on the phenomenological PDFs, and difficulties in describing the lattice matrix elements at large spatial distances. In contrast, for the polarized PDFs we find good agreement between experiment and lattice data, with the latter providing significant constraints on the spin-dependent isovector quark and antiquark distributions.

Sato, Nobuo↗

Effects of Space Missions on the Human Immune System: A Meta-Analysis

Future spaceflight will require travelers to spend ever-increasing periods of time in microgravity. Optimal functioning of the immune system is of paramount importance for the health and performance of these travelers. A meta-analysis statistical procedure was used to analyze immune system data from crew members in United States and Soviet space missions from 8.5 to 140 days duration between 1968 and 1985. Ten immunological parameters (immunoglobulins A, G, M, D, white blood cell (WBC) count, number of lymphocytes, percent total lymphocytes, percent B lymphocytes, percent T lymphocytes, and lymphocyte reactivity to mitogen) were investigated using multifactorial, repeated measure analysis of variance. With the preflight level set at 100, WBC count increased to 154 +/- 14% (mean +/- SE; p less than or equal to 0.05) immediately after flight; there was a decrease in lymphocyte count (83 +/- 4%; p less than or equal to 0.05) and percent of total lymphocytes (69 +/- 1%; p less than or equal to 0.05) immediately after flight, with reduction in RNA synthesis to phytohemagglutinin (PHA) to 51 +/- 21% (p less than or equal to 0.05) and DNA synthesis to PHA to 61 +/- 8% (p less than or equal to 0.05) at the first postflight measurement. Thus, some cellular immunological functions are decreased significantly following spaceflight. More data are needed on astronauts' age, aerobic power output, and parameters of their exercise training program to determine if these immune system responses are due solely to microgravity exposure or perhaps to some other aspect of spaceflight.

Greenleaf, J. E.↗

Cardiovascular Adaptations to Long Duration Head Down Tilt Bed Rest

Orthostatic hypotension is a recognized risk for crewmembers returning from space. Numerous cardiovascular mechanisms have been proposed to account for this problem including vascular and cardiac dysfunction. We studied arterial and cardiac function in 6-degree head-down tilt bed rest, which is the most widely accepted ground-based analog of spaceflight. Eleven subjects are included in this study (8 men and 3 women). Data analysis was limited to the first 49 days, and compared to pre-bed rest baseline data. Using ultrasound, data was collected on arterial diameters and flows at baseline and during reactive hyperemia and following administration of nitroglycerin. Echocardiography was used to acquire information regarding systolic and diastolic function as well as ventricular mass and diameter. Plasma volumes were significantly decreased by 7 days of bed rest and stayed down through 49 days. There were no differences in reactive hyperemic response in the arm at any time point. However, the hyperemic response in the leg was significantly increased at day 49. Arterial responses to nitroglycerin did not change over the duration of bed rest (day effect) in either the arm or leg, but there was a significant difference between the arm and the leg responses. There was a marked decrease in anterior tibial intimal-medial thickness at days 21, 35 and 49. Several cardiac functional parameters including IVRT, Mitral e-wave, ejection time, velocity of circumferential shortening and myocardial performance index were significantly changed following 49 days of bed rest. These data show that some cardiovascular measures change during bed rest, while others do not. Further study is needed to determine if these measures can provide any insight into the effects of bed rest, or spaceflight, on human cardiovascular performance.

Platts, Steven H.↗

VESIcal: An Open-source Thermodynamic Model Engine for Mixed Volatile (H2O-CO2) Solubility in Silicate Melts

Modeling the solubility of volatiles in silicate melts is fundamental to the interpretation of volcanic systems and has implications for magma dynamics, eruption style, and material transport between the mantle, crust, and atmosphere. Recent advancements in computational capabilities and access to computing tools has outpaced the functionality and extensibility of previously available modeling platforms. Here we present VESIcal (Volatile Equilibria and Saturation Index calculator), the first comprehensive modeling tool for H2O, CO2, and mixed (H2O-CO2) solubility in silicate melts that: a) allows users access to seven popular models, with easy inter-comparison between models; b) provides universal functionality for all models (e.g., functions for calculating saturation pressures, degassing paths, etc.); c) can process large datasets (1,000’s of samples) automatically; d) can output computed data into an Excel spreadsheet or CSV file for post-modeling analysis; e) integrates plotting capabilities directly within the tool; and f) provides all of this within the framework of a python library, making the tool extensible by the user and allowing any of the model functions to be incorporated into any other code capable of calling python.Here we will provide a demonstration of VESIcal and its capabilities with applications to various volcanic processes affected by volatiles. VESIcal represents the first tool capable of directly comparing multiple solubility models and equations of state. We find that commonly used models predict surprisingly different volatile solubilities, particularly for pure CO2 or mixed CO2-H2O fluids. Even for melt compositions that are well represented in the calibration datasets of multiple models (e.g., MORBs), calculated solubilities for pure CO2 and pure H2O can deviate from one another by factors of >2 leading to 2x deviations in calculated saturation pressures (e.g., 5 to 10 kbar). The solubility of CO2 predicted by different rhyolitic models also differs substantially, overwhelming other sources of uncertainty such as analytical errors on measurements of volatile contents or uncertainties in crustal density profiles. This highlights the importance of model choice when drawing geological conclusions based on volatiles in magmas.

Kayla Iacovino↗

A functional global sensitivity measure and efficient reliability sensitivity analysis with respect to statistical parameters

Sensitivity analysis and reliability assessment are two important aspects of structural and system safety. Epistemic uncertainty with respect to probabilistic model of input parameters due to lack of knowledge is present in many scarce-data applications and complicates the characterization of uncertainty in model response. In this article, we present two importance measures to evaluate the impact of distribution parameters on the probability distribution function (PDF) of the output and the failure probability. The epistemic uncertainty associated with the distribution parameters is modeled as random variables. Additionally, a modified extended polynomial chaos expansion (MEPCE) approach is introduced in which aleatory and epistemic random variables are modeled and propagated simultaneously while allowing the separate assessment for any single epistemic variable. A MEPCE-based kernel density estimation (KDE) construction provides a composite map from each epistemic variable to the response PDF. The functional global sensitivity index of the PDF with respect to the distribution parameters is thus derived, as a function of output, which is both more informative and more efficient than standard scalar sensitivity measures. Reliability sensitivity indices can be readily evaluated by integrating the global sensitivity index function over the failure zone. Three illustrative examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Space platforms and autonomy

Potential applications for autonomous space platforms (SP) are discussed. The platforms are assumed to have long in-service lifetimes and therefore be flexible as to configuration modification and payload changeout. Higher degrees of autonomy, particularly from ground control, are made possible because of the rapid increase of microprocessor power and artificial intelligence advances. Functioning independently, the platforms are to rely only on periodic refurbishment visits by, e.g., the Orbiter. The Manned Space Station (MSS) will be the most complex structure, involving multifacted man-machine interfaces. The SP can be subsystems of the MSS (or other platforms), handling communications enunciation, data acquisition, analysis and telemetry, fault detection and isolation, systems monitoring and control, etc. The SP adopted will depend in all cases on costs vs benefits analyses to determine the worth of removing the function(s) from direct, regular human intervention.

Easter, R. W.↗

A geospatial risk analysis graphical user interface for identifying hazardous chemical emission sources

Background: Performing back trajectory and forward trajectory using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) is a reliable approach for assessing particle transport after release among mid-field atmospheric models. HYSPLIT has an externally facing online interface that allows non-expert users to run the model trajectories without requiring extensive training or programming. However, the existing HYSPLIT interface is limited if simulations have a large amount of meteorological data and timesteps that are not coincident. The objective of this study is to design and develop a more robust tool to rapidly evaluate hazard transport conditions and to perform risk analysis, while still maintaining an intuitive and user-friendly interface. Methods: HYSPLIT calculates forward and backward trajectories of particles based on wind speed, wind direction, and the corresponding location, timestamp, and Pasquill stability classes of the regions of the atmosphere in terms of the wind speed, the amount of solar radiation, and the fractional cloud cover. The computed particle transport trajectories, combined with the online Proton Transfer Reaction-Mass Spectrometry (PTR-MS) data (https://figshare.com/articles/dataset/ARL_Data_from_PROS_station_at_Hanford_site/19993964), can be used to identify and quantify the sources and affected area of the hazardous chemicals’ emission using the potential source distribution function (PSDF). PSDF is an improved statistical function based on the well-known potential source contribution function (PSCF) in establishing the air pollutant source and receptor relationship. Performing this analysis requires a range of meteorological and pollutant concentration measurements to be statistically meaningful. The existing HYSPLIT graphical user interface (GUI) does not easily permit computations of trajectories of a dataset of meteorological data in high temporal frequency. To improve the performance of HYSPLIT computations from a large dataset and enhance risk analysis of the accidental release of material at risk, a geospatial risk analysis tool (GRAT-GUI) is created to allow large data sets to be processed instantaneously and to provide ease of visualization. Results: The GRAT-GUI is a native desktop-based application and can be run in any Windows 10 system without any internet access requirements, thus providing a secure way to process large meteorological datasets even on a standalone computer. GRAT-GUI has features to import, integrate, and convert meteorological data with various formats for hazardous chemical emission source identification and risk analysis as a self-explanatory user interface. The tool is available at https://figshare.com/articles/software/GRAT/19426742.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

From microbial diversity to functional potential using dimensionality reduction

The high dimensionality of microbial diversity data from ‘omics observations can be reduced using Machine Learning, with many recent studies showcasing ML utility for exploratory ecological feature finding and process prediction. Here, we compare the Self Organizing Map (SOM) dimensionality reduction method to the well-documented sample-based Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCoA) and taxa-based Weighted Gene Correlation Network Analysis (WGCNA) using near daily 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing data from the 2019 to 2020 MOSAiC International Arctic Drift Expedition. We then map k-means clustering outputs from each method to available metagenomes, extracting functionally distinct seasonal microbial ecotypes in the surface Arctic Ocean. Our results indicate the SOM method better represented expected seasonal transitions and identified a greater number of metabolically distinct functional groups than the more traditional PCoA ordination. Ultimately, we identified four community ecotypes with distinct taxonomic and functional cut-offs driven by seasonality, water mass, and substrate turnover, highlighting the importance of succession in functional diversity for the central Arctic Ocean. These results reinforce ML dimensionality reduction as a meaningful translator in the mining of historical amplicon datasets to address modern mechanistic questions and potentially provide ’omics informed ecotype diversity to leverage in mechanistic biogeochemical models.

Arctic Ocean↗

Improving Convection Trigger Functions in Deep Convective Parameterization Schemes Using Machine Learning

Abstract Deficiencies in convection trigger functions, used in deep convection parameterizations in General Circulation Models (GCMs), have critical impacts on climate simulations. A novel convection trigger function is developed using the machine learning (ML) classification model XGBoost. The large‐scale environmental information associated with convective events is obtained from the long‐term constrained variational analysis forcing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Manaus (MAO) sites representing, respectively, continental mid‐latitude and tropical convection. The ML trigger is separately trained and evaluated per site, and jointly trained and evaluated at both sites as a unified trigger. The performance of the ML trigger is compared with four convective trigger functions commonly used in GCMs: dilute convective available potential energy (CAPE), undilute CAPE, dilute dynamic CAPE (dCAPE), and undilute dCAPE. The ML trigger substantially outperforms the four CAPE‐based triggers in terms of the F 1 score metric, widely used to estimate the performance of ML methods. The site‐specific ML trigger functions can achieve, respectively, 91% and 93% F 1 scores at SGP and MAO. The unified trigger also has a 91% F 1 score, with virtually no degradation from the site‐specific training, suggesting the potential of a global ML trigger function. The ML trigger alleviates a GCM deficiency regarding the overprediction of convection occurrence, offering a promising improvement to the simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Furthermore, to overcome the black box issue of the ML methods, insights derived from the ML model are discussed, which may be leveraged to improve traditional CAPE‐based triggers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiative properties of quantum emitters in boron nitride from excited state calculations and Bayesian analysis

Abstract Point defects in hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) have attracted growing attention as bright single-photon emitters. However, understanding of their atomic structure and radiative properties remains incomplete. Here we study the excited states and radiative lifetimes of over 20 native defects and carbon or oxygen impurities in hBN using ab initio density functional theory and GW plus Bethe-Salpeter equation calculations, generating a large data set of their emission energy, polarization and lifetime. We find a wide variability across quantum emitters, with exciton energies ranging from 0.3 to 4 eV and radiative lifetimes from ns to ms for different defect structures. Through a Bayesian statistical analysis, we identify various high-likelihood charge-neutral defect emitters, among which the native V N N B defect is predicted to possess emission energy and radiative lifetime in agreement with experiments. Our work advances the microscopic understanding of hBN single-photon emitters and introduces a computational framework to characterize and identify quantum emitters in 2D materials.

Chemistry↗

Knowledge Representation Standards and Interchange Formats for Causal Graphs

In many domains, automated reasoning tools must represent graphs of causally linked events. These include fault-tree analysis, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), planning, procedures, medical reasoning about disease progression, and functional architectures. Each of these fields has its own requirements for the representation of causation, events, actors and conditions. The representations include ontologies of function and cause, data dictionaries for causal dependency, failure and hazard, and interchange formats between some existing tools. In none of the domains has a generally accepted interchange format emerged. The paper makes progress towards interoperability across the wide range of causal analysis methodologies. We survey existing practice and emerging interchange formats in each of these fields. Setting forth a set of terms and concepts that are broadly shared across the domains, we examine the several ways in which current practice represents them. Some phenomena are difficult to represent or to analyze in several domains. These include mode transitions, reachability analysis, positive and negative feedback loops, conditions correlated but not causally linked and bimodal probability distributions. We work through examples and contrast the differing methods for addressing them. We detail recent work in knowledge interchange formats for causal trees in aerospace analysis applications in early design, safety and reliability. Several examples are discussed, with a particular focus on reachability analysis and mode transitions. We generalize the aerospace analysis work across the several other domains. We also recommend features and capabilities for the next generation of causal knowledge representation standards.

Throop, David R.↗

Calibration Results for J-ERS-1 SAR Data Produced by the Alaska SAR Facility

The Alaska SAR Facility has been receiving and processing SAR data from the J-ERS-1 satellite since Spring 1992. Corner reflectors have been set up for J-ERS-1 SAR calibration at a site near Delta Junction, in central Alaska. Image quality and calibration analysis results from the Delta Junction site and others will be presented in this paper. The impact of the 3-bit Analog-to-Digital Converter and the automatic stepping of the gain as a function of range in the J-ERS-1 radar receiver on calibration performance has been assessed. Preliminary observations on J-ERS-1 SAR data are that the average Signal-to-Noise ratio is generally fairly low, in the range 5-6dB. Azimuth ambiguity levels are higher than preflight analysis indicated. Over land, the dynamic range in the backscatter at L-band for approximately 36 degree incidence angle is often fairly high.

Freeman, A.↗

Calibration Results for J-ERS-1 SAR Data Produced by the Alaska SAR Facility

The Alaska SAR Facility has been receiving and processing SAR data from the J-ERS-1 satellite since Spring 1992. Corner reflectors have been set up for J-ERS-1 SAR calibration at a site near Delta Junction, in central Alaska. Image quality and calibration analysis results from the Delta Junction site and others will be presented in this paper. The impact of the 3-bit Analog-to-Digital Converter and the automatic stepping of the gain as a function of range in the J-ERS-1 radar receiver on calibration performance has been assessed. Preliminary observations on J-ERS-1 SAR data are that the average Signal-to-Noise ratio is generally fairly low, in the range 5-6 dB. Azimuth ambiguity levels are higher than preflight analysis indicated. Over land, the dynamic range in the backscatter at L-band for approximately 36 degree incidence angle is often fairly high...

Freeman, A.↗

Gravitational experiments on solar probe

A covariance analysis was performed for a solar probe trajectory which encounters the sun at four solar radii. The unknown parameters in the analysis are the six initial cartesian coordinates for the probe, six initial cartesian coordinates for the earth, the astronomical unit, the solar gravitational quadrupole coefficient and two post Newtonian meters (beta, gamma). Errors in the unknown parameters were computed as a function of standard errors on the radio tracking data and on the nongravitational forces which act on the probe. Results were obtained for several tracking geometries and for several orbital inclinations to the ecliptic. The analysis shows that the principal scientific result from the radio tracking of a solar probe would be the determination of the quadrupole moment, which would place a constraint on models of the solar interior.

Anderson, J. D.↗