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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

A review and forecast of engine system research at the Army Propulsion Directorate

An account is given of the development status and achievements to date of the U.S. Army Propulsion Directorate's Small Turbine Engine Research (STER) programs, which are experimental investigations of the physics of entire engine systems from the viewpoints of component interactions and/or system dynamics. STER efforts are oriented toward the evaluation of complete turboshaft engine advanced concepts and are conducted at the ECRL-2 indoor, sea-level engine test facility. Attention is given to the results obtained by STER experiments concerned with IR-suppressing engine exhausts, a ceramic turbine-blade shroud, an active shaft-vibration control system, and a ceramic-matrix combustor liner.

Bobula, George A.↗

A preliminary evaluation of short-term thunderstorm forecasting using surface winds at Kennedy Space Center

In 1987 NASA expanded its surface wind network onto the mainland west of Kennedy Space Center, increasing the network area from nearly 800 sq km to over 1600 sq km. Here, the results of this expansion are reported using three years of wind and lightning information collected during June, July, August, and September of 1987, 1988, and 1989. The divergence-lightning relationships and the importance of wind direction are addressed, and the verification is summarized.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

The use of VAS retrievals for thunderstorm forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center

A modified version of the current operational VAS retrieval methodology was used to examine preconvective environments over central Florida in the vicinity of NASA's Kennedy Space Center. The modifications to the retrieval algorithm are discussed, and results of a case study of 10-11 July 1989 are presented. The VAS retrievals detected mesoscale humidity and stability features that were not resolved by the operational radiosonde network. These features were closely associated with the locations of thunderstorm development.

Hoepner, Wayne A.↗

High-Speed Civil Transport Forecast: Simulated Airlines Scenarios for Mach 1.6, Mach 2.0, and Mach 2.4 Configurations for Year 2015

The report describes the development of a database of fuel burn and emissions from projected High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) fleets that reflect actual airlines' networks, operational requirement, and traffic flow as operated by simulated world wide airlines for Mach 1.6, 2.0, and 2.4 HSCT configurations. For the year 2015, McDonnell Douglas Corporation created two supersonic commercial air traffic networks consisting of origin-destination city pair routes and associated traffic levels. The first scenario represented a manufacturing upper limit producible HSCT fleet availability by year 2015. The fleet projection of the Mach 2.4 configuration for this scenario was 1059 units with a traffic capture of 70 percent. The second scenario focused on the number of units that can minimally be produced by the year 2015. Using realistic production rates, the HSCT fleet projection amounts to 565 units. The traffic capture associated with this fleet was estimated at 40 percent. The airlines network was extracted from the actual networks of 21 major world airlines. All the routes were screened for suitability for HSCT operations. The route selection criteria included great circle distance, difference between flight path distance and great circle distance to avoid overland operations, and potential flight frequency.

Metwally, Munir↗

Forecasting the Economic Impact of Future Space Station Operations

Recent manned and unmanned Earth-orbital operations have suggested great promise of improved knowledge and of substantial economic and associated benefits to be derived from services offered by a space station. Proposed application areas include agriculture, forestry, hydrology, public health, oceanography, natural disaster warning, and search/rescue operations. The need for reliable estimates of economic and related Earth-oriented benefits to be realized from Earth-orbital operations is discussed and recent work in this area is reviewed. Emphasis is given to those services based on remote sensing. Requirements for a uniform, comprehensive and flexible methodology are discussed. A brief review of the suggested methodology is presented. This methodology will be exercised through five case studies which were chosen from a gross inventory of almost 400 user candidates. The relationship of case study results to benefits in broader application areas is discussed, Some management implications of possible future program implementation are included.

Summer, R. A.↗

The Impact of QuikScat on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Scatterometer observations of the ocean surface wind speed and direction improve the depiction and prediction of storms at sea. These data are especially valuable where observations are otherwise sparse, mostly in the Southern Hemisphere and tropics, but also on occasion in the North Atlantic and North Pacific The SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikScat satellite was launched in June 1999 and it represents a dramatic departure in design from the other scatterometer instruments launched during the past decade (ERS-1,2 and NSCAT). More details on the SeaWinds instrument can be found in Atlas et al. (2001) and Bloom et al. (1999). This presentation shows the influence of QuikScat data in data assimilation systems both from the NASA Data Assimilation Office (GEOS-3) and from NCEP (GDAS).

Atlas, Robert↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We completed the formulation of the smoothness penalty functional this past quarter. We used a simplified procedure for estimating the statistics of the FCA solution spectral coefficients from the results of the unconstrained, low-truncation FCA (stopping criterion) solutions. During the current reporting period we have completed the calculation of GEOS-2 model-equivalent brightness temperatures for the 6.7 micron and 11 micron window channels used in the GOES imagery for all 10 cases from August 1999. These were simulated using the AER-developed Optimal Spectral Sampling (OSS) model.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

Forecast for the Remainder of the Leonid Storm Season

The dust trails of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle lead to Leonid storms on Earth, threatening satellites in orbit. We present a new model that accounts in detail for the observed properties of dust tails evolved by the comet at previous oppositions. The prediction model shows the 1767-dust trail closer to Earth's orbit in 2001 than originally thought; increasing expected peak rates for North America observers. Predictions for the 2002 storms are less affected. We demonstrate that the observed shower profiles can be understood as a projection of the comet lightcurve.

Jenniskens, Peter↗

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

In a 17 vector magnetogram study of 12 bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2002, ApJ in press), we correlated four quantitative global magnetic measures with the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) productivity of the active region. The global measures included a measure of active region size, the total magnetic flux phi and three measures of an active region global nonpotentiality 1) the net current (I (sub N)), 2) the length of the strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (L(sub SS)) and 3) and the normalized twist (alpha = muIN/PHI). The CME productivity was determined from YOHKOH/SXT observations, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and when possible Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (SOHO/LASCO) observations within 12 days of the day of the magnetogram. We found that the three measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub SS), alpha) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity. The sample size was to small to confirm if there was a statistical significant correlation of the globally nonscientist measures with future CME activity (i.e. from the date of the magnetogram forward). We are doubling our sample, and will report on the statistical significance of global nonpotentiality as a predictor of future CME productivity. The new active regions are all from the first year of the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograms. This work, is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program, by NASA through the Living with the Star, Targeted Research and Technology, and by NASA Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program. The upgrade to the MSFC vector magnetograph was supported by the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) mission.

Falconer, D. A.↗

InFlight Weather Forecasts at Your Fingertips

A new information system is delivering real-time weather reports to pilots where they need it the most - inside their aircraft cockpits. Codeveloped by NASA and ViGYAN, Inc., the WSI InFlight(trademark) Cockpit Weather System provides a continuous, satellite-based broadcast of weather information to a portable or panel-mounted display inside the cockpit. With complete coverage and content for the continental United States at any altitude, the system is specifically designed for inflight use.

Source record↗

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Magnetograms

We report further results from our ongoing assessment of magnetogram-based measures of active-region nonpotentiality (magnetic shear and twist) and size as predictors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). From a set of 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary 2004, ApJ, submitted), we have found that (1) each of our 5 measures of active-region nonpotentiality has a 75-80% success rate in predicting whether an active region will produce a CME within 2 days after the magnetogram, (2) the correlation of each of these measures with CME production in this window is statistically significant (confidence level greater than 95%), (3) our measure of active-region size has a 65% success rate in predicting CMEs in this window, but (4) the correlation between active-region size and CME productivity is not statistically significant (confidence level approximately 80%). As part of the work under our pending 2003 LWS TR&T proposal, we will double our sample to approximately 70 active regions in order to demonstrate a statistically significant correlation between active-region size and CME productivity, and to determine whether this correlation is a byproduct of any Sun-produced correlation between magnetic twist and size of active regions. Since the 2002 LWS Science Workshop, we have found a measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the length of strong-gradient neutral line) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram, and we have generalized this measure and the corresponding measure from a vector magnetogram (the length of strong-shear neutral line) so that they can be applied to multiple-bipole complex active regions as well as to bipolar active regions. Preliminary results will be presented from application of these two generalized measures to our sample of bipolar active regions and to a new sample of multiple-bipole active regions.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Application of Satellite-Derived Land Surface Temperature to Minimum Temperature Forecasting

Satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) is studied for the purpose of understanding regional skin temperature dependency and variability, and its relationship to corresponding, site-specific air temperature. Skin temperature is highly correlated with surface-air temperature although it differs depending on land surface characteristics, terrain, and atmospheric conditions on a diurnal and seasonal scale. The high temporal resolution of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) -12 sounder is used to compare the diurnal cycles of LST and surface-air temperature. The minimum for both temperatures occurs near sunrise and LST is found to agree closely with surface-air temperatures a period of hours before sunrise on clear sky nights. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived LST renders more horizontal temperature structure - with its high spatial resolution (1 km at nadir) compared to the GOES-12 sounder (10 km). Nighttime MODIS-derived LST is extrapolated to the time of minimum temperature for a number of case study days and these are grouped by season and atmospheric conditions. These composites show that the variation in LST mirror the variation in minimum surface-air temperature under similar conditions.

Jones, P. R.↗

An Ecological Forecasting Agent

The project goals are: Make data analysis faster and cheaper. Increase use of NASA data by removing barriers to data access. Cope with data heterogeneity. Support code reuse and rapid application development. Support multiple applications, users. Including fire and health domains. Improve QOS. Always provide an answer. Tell user how good it is, where it come from.

Golden, Keith↗