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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Machine learning assisted modeling of mixing timescale for LES/PDF of high-Karlovitz turbulent premixed combustion

Accurate modeling of mixing in the transported probability density function (PDF) method remains a great challenge, especially for turbulent premixed combustion under extreme conditions such as high Karlovitz number Ka. Recently, a power-law based mixing timescale model was developed for the large-eddy simulations (LES)/PDF modeling of high-Ka number turbulent premixed flames. It is found in this work that the power-law mixing timescale model is highly sensitive to the model parameters. It is thus critically needed to develop accurate calibration of these model parameters. The empirical specification of the model parameters developed in Zhang et. al. is found to be inadequate for accurate modeling of the mixing timescale. Here, machine learning is introduced as an attractive alternative in this work for the specification of the model parameters. A high-Ka number DNS jet flame is used as the training and validation of the machine learning models. The choices of the input parameters are discussed and compared for the machine learning models. The effect of differential molecular diffusion on mixing is examined by including the effect of the Lewis number in the training of the machine learning models. The performance of different machine learning algorithms is compared for the specification of the mixing model parameters. Overall, excellent performance of the machine learning models is observed for assisting the mixing modeling. The feasibility, interpretability, applicability, generality, and portability of using machine learning are discussed in general to provide a perspective on applying data-driven machine learning for turbulent combustion modeling studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy of Dilute Metalloenzymes at X-ray Free-Electron Lasers in a Shot-by-Shot Mode

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) of 3d transition metals provides important electronic structure information for many fields. However, X-ray-induced radiation damage under physiological temperature has prevented using this method to study dilute aqueous systems, such as metalloenzymes, as the catalytic reaction proceeds. Here we present a new approach to enable operando XAS of dilute biological samples and demonstrate its feasibility with K-edge XAS spectra from the Mn cluster in photosystem II and the Fe–S centers in photosystem I. This approach combines highly efficient sample delivery strategies and a robust signal normalization method with high-transmission Bragg diffraction-based spectrometers at X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) in a damage-free, shot-by-shot mode. These photon-out spectrometers have been optimized for discriminating the metal Mn/Fe Kα fluorescence signals from the overwhelming scattering background present on currently available detectors for XFELs that lack suitable energy discrimination. We quantify the enhanced performance metrics of the spectrometer and discuss its potential applications for acquiring time-resolved XAS spectra of biological samples during their reactions at XFELs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Defining Infrastructure Feasibility for Hub-Scale Offshore Atlantic Carbon Storage in the Northeastern United States

In the Northeast U.S., deep rock formations along the Atlantic outer continental shelf may have the potential to sequester 150–1136 million metric tons of CO2. However, the design and infrastructure necessary to develop offshore carbon storage in this region is not well defined because there has been little oil and gas exploration and no commercial production. Consequently, an infrastructure feasibility design was completed for a hub-scale offshore CO2 storage system along the Northeast U.S. Atlantic. The design included development of a detailed, site-specific geological model for a location near the Great Stone Dome geological structure in the Baltimore Canyon Trough off the coast of Delaware, Maryland, and New Jersey. A field injection system topology design was completed to portray a design with eight wells in two clusters connected by central manifolds. Reservoir simulations were completed for the injection system that showed the hub may be able to inject 17 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2 per year for thirty years, but injection rates varied substantially across the eight wells. A CO2 pipeline design determined feasible routes from the east coast shoreline to the injection field. Finally, the CO2 injection system design included subsea injection trees, manifolds, and power umbilicals. This is the first study to define large-scale carbon storage design and infrastructure options for the offshore Atlantic, which can help to progress this region towards field characterization and early-mover deployment for future decarbonization in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Grid-Constrained Electric Vehicle Fast Charging Sites: Battery-Buffered Options

This case study summarizes recent Joint Office of Energy and Transportation technical assistance work performed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory which involved helping a state department of transportation analyze the feasibility of a battery energy storage system solution at a grid-constrained EV charging location.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Spatiotemporal mapping of microscopic strains and defects to reveal Li-dendrite-induced failure in all-solid-state batteries

Solid-state electrolytes (SSEs) are key to the success and reliability of all-solid-state lithium batteries, potentially enabling improvements in terms of safety and energy density over state-of-the-art lithium-ion batteries. However, there are several critical challenges to their implementation, including the interfacial instability stemming from the dynamic interaction of as-formed dendritic lithium during cycling. Here, we emphasize the importance of studying the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of strains and defects in crystalline solid-state electrolytes at the micro-scale, and how this affects dendrite growth. A proof-of-principle study is demonstrated using the synchrotron radiation based micro Laue X-ray diffraction method, and a custom-developed in-situ cycling device. Defects and residual strains are mapped, and the evolution of intragranular misorientation is observed. The feasibility of using this technique is discussed, and recommendations for micro-strain engineering to address the Li/SSEs interfacial issues are given. Additionally, work directions are pointed out with the consideration of combining multi-techniques for “poly-therapy”.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

$\scriptsize\mathrm{{SQuIGG\overrightarrow{L}E}}$: Studying Quenching in Intermediate- z Galaxies—Gas, $\scriptsize\mathrm{{Angu\overrightarrow{L}ar}}$ Momentum, and Evolution

We describe the Studying Quenching in Intermediate-z Galaxies: Gas, $\scriptsize\mathrm{\rm{angu}}\overrightarrow{L}{\rm{ar}}$ momentum, and Evolution ($\scriptsize\mathrm{{SQuIGG\overrightarrow{L}E}}$) survey of intermediate-redshift post-starburst galaxies. We leverage the large sky coverage of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey to select ~1300 recently quenched galaxies at 0.5 < z ≤ 0.9 based on their unique spectral shapes. These bright, intermediate-redshift galaxies are ideal laboratories to study the physics responsible for the rapid quenching of star formation: they are distant enough to be useful analogs for high-redshift quenching galaxies, but low enough redshift that multiwavelength follow-up observations are feasible with modest telescope investments. We use the Prospector code to infer the stellar population properties and nonparametric star formation histories (SFHs) of all galaxies in the sample. We find that $\scriptsize\mathrm{{SQuIGG\overrightarrow{L}E}}$ galaxies are both very massive (M * ~ 10 11.25 M ⊙ ) and quenched, with inferred star formation rates ≲1 M ⊙ yr -1 , more than an order of magnitude below the star-forming main sequence. The best-fit SFHs confirm that these galaxies recently quenched a major burst of star formation: >75% of $\scriptsize\mathrm{{SQuIGG\overrightarrow{L}E}}$ galaxies formed at least a quarter of their total stellar mass in the recent burst, which ended just ~200 Myr before observation. We find that $\scriptsize\mathrm{{SQuIGG\overrightarrow{L}E}}$ galaxies are on average younger and more burst-dominated than most other z ≲ 1 post-starburst galaxy samples. This large sample of bright post-starburst galaxies at intermediate redshift opens a wide range of studies into the quenching process. In particular, the full $\scriptsize\mathrm{{SQuIGG\overrightarrow{L}E}}$ survey will investigate the molecular gas reservoirs, morphologies, kinematics, resolved stellar populations, active galactic nucleus incidence, and infrared properties of this unique sample of galaxies in order to place definitive constraints on the quenching process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Experimental validation of multiphysics model simulations of the thermal response of a cement clinker rotary kiln at laboratory scale

Abstract An increasing demand for buildings, transportation systems and civil infrastructure development has driven expansion of cement consumption world‐wide, producing a significant increase in related global energy demand. With approximately 7% of the world‐wide industrial energy consumption (10.7 exajoules [EJ]), the cement industry is the third most energy intensive industrial processes and a key component for concrete, the most consumed composite material in the global construction industry. In cement manufacturing, the cement kiln accounts for most of the energy consumption in the production process. As the heart of a cement plant, the cement kiln is where the kiln feed primarily containing calcium oxide (CaO), silica (SiO 2 ), alumina (Al 2 O 3 ), and iron (Fe 2 O 3 ) are thermally and chemically transformed into clinker minerals. The presented work developed a multiphysics model, designed and built a laboratory‐scale rotary cement clinker kiln, and produced cement clinker at laboratory‐scale. The model was developed to study the interaction between the various thermal, fluid dynamic and chemical interactions involved in the sintering process used to form Portland cement clinker in an effort to reduce energy use. The analytical model was validated through experimental testing using a unique laboratory‐scale rotary cement kiln developed during the investigation. Also demonstrated was the feasibility of producing clinker at laboratory scale. This modeling and lab scale tests were designed to better understand the clinker sintering process so that operational and quality decisions can be made to optimize energy consumption without compromising cement clinker quality. The computational fluid dynamics modeling was developed in COMSOL Multiphysics 6.0. The characteristics of the combustion fluid flow, concentration of species, temperature and heat transfer were studied for a turbulent flow of methane (CH 4 ) gas and oxygen (O 2 ). Theory suggests that heat transfer impacts the cement production process but the multiphysics model more accurately describes the convection, conduction, and radiant heat transfer in the kilning process and thus allows for a better understanding of the energy exchange driving the chemical reactions that produce Portland cement. Clinker minerals were formed because of appropriate burning conditions implemented during experimental model validation.

Tabares, Juan David↗

Influence of extreme temperature conditions on CO 2 direct air capture using amino-acid solutions

Geological features play a pivotal role in determining the feasibility of deploying CO₂ direct air capture (DAC) technologies, primarily because they influence the availability of cost-effective energy sources, such as natural gas and geothermal energy, and also due to the potential for CO₂ sequestration. Many regions face challenges due to variable weather conditions including seasonal temperature fluctuations, high or low humidity, and sub-ambient temperatures. These extremes can reduce DAC performance or even lead to catastrophic events. Aqueous solvents considered for DAC systems are particularly vulnerable to seasonal variations in colder climates, where the solvent may underperform or freeze. It is therefore essential to investigate the CO₂ capture efficiency of aqueous solvents across a broad range of environmental temperatures, spanning sub-zero to hot conditions (>30 °C). In this study, DAC operation is examined using a high-flux solvent–air crossflow contactor under two major weather scenarios: (i) cold conditions below 0 °C and (ii) hot conditions above 30 °C. A parametric study is conducted to investigate the contactor performance regarding CO₂ removal efficiency, uptake capacity, and reaction kinetics versus temperature when the air velocity through the contactor exceeds 1 m/s. The efficacy of the contactor is systematically investigated using various anti-freeze amino-acid solvent formulations. A mass-transfer mechanistic model is developed to assess the process performance over a wide temperature range and propose scalable design guidelines. Machine learning is also employed to identify key parameters affecting the CO₂ capture efficiency. It is shown that air velocity and temperature are the primary factors influencing CO₂ uptake. Based on performance data obtained under subfreezing temperatures, a technoeconomic analysis is conducted to evaluate the feasibility of using aqueous solvents in seasonal cold regions. In conclusion, the findings of this study provide valuable insights into siting considerations for deploying solvent-based DAC, thereby contributing to the advancement of sustainable carbon removal solutions.

Air–liquid contactor↗

Nepal Himalaya offers considerable potential for pumped storage hydropower

There is a pressing need for a transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy to meet the increasing energy demands and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Himalayan region, with its unique topography and abundant water resources, offers substantial renewable energy potential, particularly through hydropower generation. However, the current exploitation rate is low owing to the predominance of run-of-river hydropower systems to support the power system. The utility-scale storage facility is crucial in the load scenario of an integrated power system to manage diurnal variation, peak demand, and penetration of intermittent energy sources. In this study, we assess the potential of pumped storage hydropower across Nepal, a central Himalayan country, under multiple configurations by pairing lakes, rivers, and available flat terrains. We then identify technically feasible pairs from those of potential locations. Infrastructural, environmental, operational, and other technical constraints govern the choice of feasible locations. Here, we show that 42% of the theoretical potential of 3000 GWh is technically feasible. We find the flat land-to-river configuration more promising than other configurations. Our findings provide insight into the potential of pumped storage hydropower and are of practical importance in planning sustainable power systems in the Himalayas and beyond.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Optical 14 C Tracing for Biological and Pharmaceutical Applications Using Two-Color Cavity Ringdown Spectroscopy

Laser-based 14 C quantitation has been proposed as a more affordable, higher-throughput, table-top alternative to accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of a mid-IR 14 C detector based on two-color cavity ringdown spectroscopy (2C-CRDS) for low-level 14 C isotope tracing in biological studies. The 2C-CRDS technique quantifies the sample 14 C content by measuring the 14 CO 2 absorption signals from the combusted samples with mid-IR lasers. With 2C-CRDS, we previously demonstrated the most sensitive and accurate optical measurements of 14 CO 2 . The current detection sensitivity and quantitation accuracy of the instrument, at a few parts per quadrillion (where a quadrillion = 10 15 ) 14 C/C mole fraction, is competitive against AMS. Here, by applying the 2C-CRDS 14 C sensor to two applications relevant to 14 C-labeled biochemical analysis and pharmaceutical studies, we demonstrate sub-fCi level (where 1 fCi = 10 –15 Ci) quantitation of sample 14 C activity, with a minimum sample-size requirement of 3 mg of carbon. The current measurement throughput, ~25 min/sample, is largely limited by the sampling efficiency of the online combustion and CO 2 processing interface to the 2C-CRDS instrument. The possibility of a significantly improved measurement throughput of a few minutes per sample is suggested by the results of a flow-through 14 CO 2 sampling scheme. In conclusion, this improved measurement efficiency, combined with the relatively low cost and compact size of a 2C-CRDS sensor, could potentially revolutionize high-sensitivity 14 C tracing in biological, pharmaceutical, and clinical studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Reconstruction of Electron and Ion Distribution Functions in a Magnetotail Reconnection Diffusion Region

In the diffusion region of magnetotail reconnection, particle distributions are highly structured, exhibiting triangular shapes and multiple striations that deviate dramatically from the Maxwellian distribution. Fully kinetic simulations have been demonstrated to be capable of producing the essential structures of the observed distribution functions, yet are computationally not feasible for 3D global simulations. The fluid models used for large-scale simulations, on the other hand, do not have the kinetic physics necessary for describing reconnection accurately. Our study aims to bridge fully kinetic and fluid simulations by quantifying the information required to capture the non-Maxwellian features in the distributions underlying the closures used in the fluid code. Here, we compare the results of fully kinetic simulations with observed electron velocity distributions in a magnetotail reconnection diffusion region and use the maximum entropy model to reconstruct electron and ion distributions using various numbers of moments obtained from the simulation. Our results indicate that using only local moments, the maximum entropy model can reproduce many of the features of the distributions: (1) the electron outflow distribution with a tilted triangular structure is reproduced with 21 or more moments in agreement with Ng et al. and (2) counterstreaming distributions can be captured with the 35-moment model when the separation in velocity space between the populations is large.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ultrasonic Communication in Solid Channels using OFDM

Using an ultrasonic signal for communication is an alternate solution when electromagnetic waves are not feasible for carrying the information through the channel. We can use the ultrasonic signal to conduct communication in different types of media such as solid, liquid, and gas. In this study, we use ultrasound for communication through a metal plate channel. A metal plate is a highly dispersive and frequency selective channel with a severe multipath effect. The OFDM modulation method is customized for the ultrasonic communication channel to enhance communication reliability and reduce the bit error rate. With the channel frequency response, we adaptively map the transmitted information to optimize the selection of subcarriers frequency bands for the highest possible throughput.

OFDM↗

Distributed fiber sensing systems for 3D combustion temperature field monitoring in coal-fired boilers using optically generated acoustic waves (Final Report)

In this project, we have developed and tested three kinds of fiber optic sensing systems for real time monitoring of temperature variations within an industrial scale boiler furnace. The fiber optic sensing systems target spatial and temporal distributions of high temperature profiles in a boiler furnace in fossil power plants. The reconstructed temperature profile will provide critical input for the control mechanisms to optimize the combustion process. This temperature profile will address the essential problem for fossil power plants in achieving higher efficiency and fewer pollutant emissions. Acoustic pyrometer systems have been used to reconstruct temperature field of power plant boilers based on measuring TOF (times-of-flight) of sound waves along some straight paths in a 2D cross-section of the boiler. In this project, optically generated acoustic signals from a fiber optic sensing system have replaced the acoustic signals generated from an electrical transducer. A 3D reconstruction algorithm replaced the previous 2D model. In this project, three kinds of fiber optic sensing systems have been developed and tested. They are fiber optic sensing system I, fiber optic sensing system II (Distributed Sensing System I) and fiber optic sensing system III (Distributed Sensing System II). For fiber optic sensing system I, the fiber optic ultrasound generator acts as a signal generator. A microphone, hydrophone or other electronic devices serve as a signal receiver. In this system, there are one generator and one receiver. Distance test, water temperature test, air temperature test, air temperature reconstruction, and GE ISBF pilot test were performed by Fiber optic sensing system I. The fiber optic sensing system I successfully detected temperature in all these tests. We got 2D temperature reconstruction results by using the fiber optic sensing system I and it matched the reference data. The fiber optic sensing system I successfully survived in GE ISBF boiler environment (480 °F). For fiber optic sensing system II (Distributed Sensing System I), it is an all optical ultrasound system. The fiber optic ultrasound generator acts as a signal generator. Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) and Fabry-Perot (FP) sensor act as a signal receiver. In this system, there is one generator and one receiver. Aluminum plate temperature test, furnace high temperature test, and GE ISBF pilot test were performed by the fiber optic sensing system II. Fiber optic sensing system II successfully detected the temperature in all these tests. The fiber optic sensing system II successfully survived at up to 700 °C furnace environment and 320 °C GE ISBF boiler environment. For fiber optic sensing system III (Distributed Sensing System II), it is also an all optical ultrasound system. The fiber optic ultrasound generator acts as a signal generator. Multiple FP fiber sensors act as signal receivers. In this system, there is one generator and three receivers. Three GE ISBF pilot tests were performed by fiber optic sensing system III. The fiber optic sensing system III survived in the cold flow tests in GE’s ISBF pilot test facility. However, we didn’t get high temperature data by using this system since the nanosecond laser issues. During the period of the project, test trials, data simulation and algorithm optimization was performed successfully. For real time temperature field construction, the sampling rate must be fast enough to capture the field variations. The technology of Code-division multiple access (CDMA) is well studied which could allow parallel multiplexing, even if signals overlap in time or frequencies. Moreover, it has been known that extending the length of signal significantly improves SNR. For acoustic signals, these multiplexing techniques have also been widely used, mainly for sonar and acoustic communications. The CDMA modulation technique has been proposed and studied to guarantee high network throughput, low channel access delay and low energy consumption. We have studied the temperature field reconstruction using Gaussian Radial Basis Functions (GRBF)-based approximation approach. Reconstruction of 3D temperature field using Neural Networks with measured TOF and known propagation paths is feasible. 2D and 3D temperature field reconstruction simulation results are achieved. The milestone status is shown in Table 1. We finished milestone 1-8 and milestone 10. For milestone 9, we did three pilot tests by using the fiber optic sensing system III (Distributed Sensing System II) at GE Power. However, due to the failure of the ns laser, we did not get the temperature results. We conducted some additional tasks that were not originally proposed: 1) We fabricated a fiber optic sensing system I and did a pilot test based on this system. 2) In the proposal, we proposed two pilot tests at GE Power. In reality, we finished at least seven pilot tests at GE Power. GE Power has made a lot of efforts for supporting the pilot tests. 3) We got a simulation results based on CDMA. In summary, most of the tasks have been accomplished. The outcome of this project removed a few barriers that hinder the achievement of the final product of the distributed sensing systems. With the successful accomplishment of this project, a prototype of the fiber optic sensing system can be fabricated to attract more interests from companies and other funding agencies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Utilization of Existing Pipelines in Hydrogen Transport: Literature Review Report

This report critically reviews the flow behavior of hydrogen-natural gas (H 2 -NG) mixtures in pipelines and examines the critical factors of hydrogen integration into existing natural gas infrastructure. It addresses the choking behavior characterized by velocity increase and pressure drop, as well as the effects of flow restrictions and pressure losses during hydrogen transport. Computational and analytical models are used to investigate these effects, and their effects on thermodynamic properties and system performance are evaluated. The study also reviews the energy efficiency and flow dynamics of hydrogen and methane-hydrogen mixtures and optimizes the hydrogen flow rate. In addition, the effects of these mixtures on the flow characteristics are discussed in detail, with special emphasis on the compressibility factor (z factor) and fluid properties based on equations of state for hydrogen-natural gas mixtures. The study also analyzes the mixture ratios and highlights the thermophysical properties, flow dynamics, and hydrogen-blended natural gas application potential. These investigations assess flow stability, material interactions, and operational feasibility of transporting hydrogen mixtures through natural gas pipelines, which contribute to developing sustainable and efficient energy systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Future marine biofuels in the port of Seattle region

Marine transportation, a vital global sector, emits 3% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions, which are predicted to increase in the future. Marine biofuels derived from biomass or waste sources like wood residue, waste oil and municipal solid waste can be used for decarbonization. However, limited studies have explored if sufficient marine biofuels could be produced and supplied to major regional ports given feedstock, supply chain and technological constraints. We fill this gap by evaluating the feasibility of supplying marine biofuels to the Port of Seattle. The Regional Bio-Economy Model (RBEM) and the Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT) are used to build scenarios for simulating marine biofuel production in the Port region. We harmonized technoeconomic assumptions for RBEM and FTOT, input FTOT feedstock utilization and routing outputs into RBEM, and modelled conversion, feedstock, and policy scenario variations in RBEM. In RBEM, overall biofuel production was constrained primarily by the biofuel cost, and then by feedstock availability. Providing policy incentives and reducing permitting time frames alleviated these constraints and spurred the buildout of a robust industry through industrial learning dynamics in the initial years. With these measures in place, the RBEM results show that 100% of fuel demand at the Port can be supplied by biofuels with policy incentives and suitable technoeconomic conditions, but the addition of transportation cost considerations using FTOT led to 27.8% of demand being able to be met by biofuels at reasonable fuel delivery cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Distributed Coordination of Demand-side Flexible Resources in Microgrid with All-Time Feasibility

The prevalence of distributed renewable generators motivates microgrid operators to exploit demand-side flexible resources (DFRs). Due to their dispersed nature, distributed DFR coordination has been a vibrant research area, while there are several issues awaiting to be addressed. On one hand, DFR power is internally coupled through power flow, while DFR usually cannot access grid information. On the other hand, in time-restricted scenarios, solution feasibility cannot be guaranteed by conventional dual-based algorithms. To fill these gaps, we propose a distributed DFR coordination framework with all-time feasibility. The proposed framework accounts for the distinct access of microgrid entities to grid information. A distributed and all-time feasible algorithm is proposed for optimal DFR coordination, which allows DFRs to make local decisions without violating constraints throughout iterations. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through case studies. The impact of peer-to-peer communication links on algorithm convergence is also investigated, which emphasizes the balance between communication investment and algorithm performance.

Li, Hongyi [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United Sta↗

Economic feasibility of in-motion wireless power transfer in a high-density traffic corridor

Electricity is expected to become a dominant power source in the transportation sector, but under a stationary recharging model, electric powered vehicles still suffer some disadvantages relative to conventional vehicles. Recent developments in wireless power transfer (WPT) technology can enable an alternative vehicle recharging model wherein power is supplied to vehicles while they are moving, mitigating the need for charging stops and high-capacity on-board energy storage. One of the greatest concerns associated with dynamic WPT is that the required infrastructure costs would be prohibitively high; however, the life-cycle costs and benefits of such a system have been under-researched. Here in this work, we apply a systems-level assessment to a case study of a WPT charging system located on the densely trafficked I-710 corridor in Los Angeles, California. Detailed cost estimates for electronics and implementation, high-fidelity energy consumption modeling, and survey-derived adoption projections are applied to evaluate scenarios of economic feasibility and environmental impact. Results show that a “1st-of-a-kind” system can achieve a payback in 20 years while maintaining operating cost advantages relative to petroleum fueling. System economics are shown to improve substantially with “nth-of-a-kind” capital costs. Discussion focuses on the effect of uptake trajectory on economic viability and detailed economics outcomes for light duty and heavy duty vehicles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A framework for feasibility-level validation of high-resolution wave hindcast models

The value of long-term wave hindcasts for investigating wave climates, wave energy resources, and extreme wave conditions has motivated research developing, calibrating and validating wave hindcast models. Past hindcast model validation studies examined the accuracy in modeling bulk wave parameters of overall sea states without considering the dependency of the model's skill within different sea states. In the present study, a framework for wave hindcast model validation is developed by examining the model accuracy for the most frequently occurring sea states, sea states contributing the most energy to total wave power, sea states associated with hurricane events, and those with the largest model error. Here, validations using bulk wave parameters and frequency-directional spectra at these key sea states and extreme wave conditions based on univariate and bivariate-contour methods provide insights to improve model accuracy, identifying the model's strong and weak points, and pathways for improvement, e.g., modeling wave-current interactions and adjusting wind data. This study adds to a growing body of research demonstrating that a carefully calibrated and verified spectral wave hindcast model can be used to estimate key wave energy parameters over a wide range of wave energy climates, as well as their spatial, temporal, frequency, directional, and probabilistic distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗