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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗
NASA NTRS2013

Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport Revealed by Ground-based Lidar and Ozonesonde at a Midlatitude Site

This paper presents ozone structures measured by a ground-based ozone lidar and ozonesonde at Huntsville, Alabama, on 27-29 April 2010 originating from a stratosphere-to-troposphere transport event associated with a cutoff cyclone and tropopause fold. In this case, the tropopause reached 6 km and the stratospheric intrusion resulted in a 2-km thick elevated ozone layer with values between 70 and 85 ppbv descending from the 306-K to 298-K isentropic surface at a rate of 5 km day1. The potential temperature was provided by a collocated microwave profiling radiometer. We examine the corresponding meteorological fields and potential vorticity (PV) structures derived from the analysis data from the North American Mesoscale model. The 2-PVU (PV unit) surface, defined as the dynamic tropopause, is able to capture the variations of the ozone tropopause estimated from the ozonesonde and lidar measurements. The estimated ozone/PV ratio, from the measured ozone and model derived PV, for the mixing layer between the troposphere and stratosphere is approximately 41 ppbv/PVU with an uncertainty of approximately 33%. Within two days, the estimated mass of ozone irreversibly transported from the stratospheric into the troposphere is between 0.07 Tg (0.9 10(exp33) molecules) and 0.11 Tg (1.3 10(exp33) molecules) with an estimated uncertainty of 59%. Tropospheric ozone exhibited enormous variability due to the complicated mixing processes. Low ozone and large variability were observed in the mid-troposphere after the stratospheric intrusion due to the westerly advection including the transition from a cyclonic system to an anticyclonic system. This study using high temporal and vertical-resolution measurements suggests that, in this case, stratospheric air quickly lost its stratospheric characteristics once it is irreversibly mixed down into the troposphere.

Kuang, Shi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating E3SM Global Storm‐Resolving Model Simulations of Deep Convection: Insights From DP‐SCREAM During TRACER

Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) are becoming increasingly vital for advancing climate modeling and improving the prediction of extreme weather events. Houston, a coastal region frequently affected by deep convective storms, offers an ideal setting to evaluate the ability of GSRMs to simulate deep convection. This study assesses the performance of the Doubly Periodic Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) Atmosphere Model (DP-SCREAM) using observations from the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. DP-SCREAM effectively reproduces the diurnal cycles of clouds and precipitation, demonstrating much greater skill than the E3SM single column model. The DP-SCREAM is demonstrated to be applicable to coastal regions, partially due to the forcing data sets already capturing the influence of breezes. DP-SCREAM also replicates biases persistent in the global version of SCREAM: the underrepresentation of boundary layer shallow clouds, a lack of mid-level congestus clouds, and the popcorn convection, characterized by small and disorganized convective cells generating the strongest precipitation. To investigate these issues, two sensitivity experiments were conducted: increasing the mixing length and scaling up the buoyancy flux within the Simplified Higher Order Closure scheme. Increasing the mixing length improved mid-level congestus representation and reduced unrealistic early morning fog occurrence. Enhancing buoyancy flux only marginally improved the bias of underproduced big convective cells. In conclusion, an additional resolution sensitivity test at 0.5 km grid spacing demonstrated that a refined horizontal resolution alone is insufficient to resolve these biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

A View of Lightning from the Space Shuttle Red Sprites and Blue Jets

An examination and analysis of video images of lightning captured by the Low Light Level Monochrome TV cameras of the space shuttle, have provided a variety of examples of new forms of lightning-like discharges that appear to move out of the top of very active thunderstorms. These images were obtained during a number of shuttle missions while conducting the Mesoscale Lightning Observational Experiment (MLE). The video images illustrate a variety of filamentary and broad-like discharges to the stratosphere and maybe related to the intense electrical fields that are generated by the thunderstorm, which may somehow play a part in the Earth's global electrical circuit. A typical event is seen as a single or multiple-like filament that can appear to occur at altitudes between 60 to 95 km above the storm top. In addition, another phenomenon not explained at the present time, appears to move out the top of the storm and then proceeds toward the stratosphere at speeds of about lOOkm/sec. These events, much like a jet, reach an altitude of at least 33 km before they begin to spread out into a cone like shape. More observations obtained from ground and aircraft using low light level color TV cameras have confirmed that the sprites are red while the jets are blue in color, hence the name Red Sprites and Blue Jets. Still images and video data will be presented, illustrating these new atmospheric phenomena.

Vaughan, Otha H., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Great Inequality and the Dynamical Disintegration of the Outer Solar System

Using an ensemble of N-body simulations, this paper considers the fate of the outer gas giants (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) after the Sun leaves the main sequence and completes its stellar evolution. Due to solar mass loss—which is expected to remove roughly half of the star’s mass—the orbits of the giant planets expand. This adiabatic process maintains the orbital period ratios, but the mutual interactions between planets and the width of mean-motion resonances (MMR) increase, leading to the capture of Jupiter and Saturn into a stable 5:2 resonant configuration. The expanded orbits, coupled with the large-amplitude librations of the critical MMR angle, make the system more susceptible to perturbations from stellar flyby interactions. Accordingly, within about 30 Gyr, stellar encounters perturb the planets onto the chaotic subdomain of the 5:2 resonance, triggering a large-scale instability, which culminates in the ejections of all but one planet over the subsequent ∼10 Gyr. After an additional ∼50 Gyr, a close stellar encounter (with a perihelion distance less than ∼200 au) liberates the final planet. Through this sequence of events, the characteristic timescale over which the solar system will be completely dissolved is roughly 100 Gyr. Our analysis thus indicates that the expected dynamical lifetime of the solar system is much longer than the current age of the universe, but is significantly shorter than previous estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Nondestructive Testing As a Tool in the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation

Nondestructive testing (NDT) played a crucial role in determining the Columbia tragedy's cause. Over 84,000 pieces of debris were recovered; hundreds were subsequently subjected to NDT and materials analysis. Visual NDT of the debris revealed localized areas of damage such as erosion, excessive heating, knife edging and mechanical damage. Three-dimensional reconstructions were made of the left wing leading edge, utilizing a tripod-mounted laser scanning head and focused laser beam, and an advanced topometric optical scanner (ATOS) with digital white light to scan complex-shaped debris, producing monochrome 3-D models. Texture mapping provided a means to capture true colors of the debris and superimpose them on the scanned images. Uniform deposits were found over large portions of debris, obscuring underlying materials. To determine what was beneath, inverse radiography was enlisted. The radiographs guided investigators to where samples should be taken. To ascertain compositions, these samples were subjected to analytical testing, including energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and electron microprobe analysis. This combination of visual evidence, radiography, virtual reconstruction, and materials analysis allowed the forensic scientists to verify that a breach occurred in the leading edge of the left wing, the path the plasma followed, and the sequence of events that led to the loss.

McDanels, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2021

Exploration Medical Capability Medical Scenarios

Medical systems supporting exploration class missions to cislunar space, the lunar surface, and the vicinity of Mars require an evolution in medical capability beyond that available for today’s low Earth orbit centric paradigm. Progress in developing more capable medical systems will be driven by the requirements of prolonged mission duration, increasing distance from Earth, and the realities of orbital mechanics, all necessitating a concomitant need for progressively Earth independent medical decision-making capabilities. These medical systems (which include the crewmembers) are expected to be capable of evaluating, diagnosing, treating and managing a defined list of medical conditions as well as addressing unanticipated medical conditions that may arise. The prioritized medical capabilities and associated resources needed to treat these medical conditions and support anticipated inflight medical events provide robust content that informs system designers and allows for a more complete evaluation of both medical and overall mission risk. Communication of these medical capabilities to system, vehicle, and mission designers can be enhanced using scenarios that characterize the system’s operations. Carefully considered scenarios provide the context needed to explore expected human and system interfaces, roles of ground and inflight crew (including periods of interrupted or delayed communications), identify training needs, assess data needs, etc. Mission-based scenario content varies dependent upon the needs, medical capabilities, conditions and context they are intended to illustrate. This document explicitly seeks to capture and codify those scenarios that have been useful to the Exploration Medical Capability Element of the Human Research Program in defining the enhanced medical systems required for future space exploration. It is expected that this document will continue to evolve through the refinement and characterization of current and future scenarios, respectively, as our knowledge grows, and requirements increasingly focus on Earth independent spaceflight operations.

Derek M Nusbaum↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Improved Charge Separation through Conformational Control in Copper Coordination Complexes

The continued development of solar energy as a renewable resource necessitates the design and study of new approaches to sustaining photodriven charge separation (CS). To this end, we present a bioinspired approach in which triggered conformational changes are used to control electron transfer (ET) events. We report, photo-induced conformational rearrangements of a ligand are translated into changes in the coordination geometry and environment about a bound metal ion. Taking advantage of the differential coordination properties of Cu I and Cu II , these dynamics facilitate intramolecular ET from Cu I to the ligand to create a CS state. The synthesis and photophysical characterization of CuCl(dpaa R ) (dpaa = dipicolylaminoacetophenone, with R = H and OMe) is presented. These ligands incorporate a fluorophore into their framework that gives rise to a twisted intramolecular charge transfer (TICT) excited state. Excited state ligand twisting provides a tetragonal coordination geometry capable of capturing Cu II in the CS state when an internal ortho-OMe binding site is present (as in dpaaOMe). We employ NMR, IR, EPR, and optical spectroscopies, X-ray diffraction, and electrochemical methods to establish the ground state properties of the Cu I and Cu II complexes. We then investigate the photophysical dynamics of these Cu I complexes via time-resolved photoluminescence (TR-PL), and optical transient absorption (OTA) spectroscopies. We show that relative to controls lacking a TICT-active ligand, the lifetime of the CS state is enhanced ~1000-fold. Further, the presence of the ortho-OMe substituent greatly enhances the lifetime of the TICT* state and biases the coordination environment toward Cu II . The presence of Cu I decreases photoinduced degradation from 14 to <2% but does not result in significant quenching via ET. Factors affecting CS in these systems are discussed, laying the groundwork for our strategy toward solar energy conversion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Remote Sensing to Detect and Assess the Impacts of Estuarine Breach Events for Improved Coastal Wetland Monitoring and Management

Estuaries are extremely dynamic environments that provide a host of vital ecosystem services. California’s Marine Life Protection Act protects such ecosystems by creating Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). California has approximately 440,000 acres of estuarine habitat as well as 23 Estuarine Marine Protected Areas (EMPAs). Thus, in situ data collection is often difficult due to time and resource constraints. This project used remote sensing to gather data that examined the health and dynamics of California EMPAs to supplement ground-based field measurements. Through the use of Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), this project assessed mouth state, inundation extent, turbidity, temperature, and tidal measurements for observable estuaries. The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) from Sentinel-2 MSI captured estuary mouth state and inundation extent. Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI detected differences in water quality metrics that correlated to changes in estuary mouth state (i.e., open or closed) through algorithms in Google Earth Engine (GEE). The GEE California Estuary Assessment (CEA) tool was created with partner input throughout development and culminated in a graphical user interface tailored to management needs. The CEA tool will allow the partners, the Ocean Protection Council, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories’ Central Coast Wetlands Group, the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, and University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and Davis (UCD), to better understand estuary dynamics and facilitate informed management decisions through satellite-based Earth observations.

Alex Gunnerson↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phenomenology of magnetic black holes with electroweak-symmetric coronas

Magnetically charged black holes (MBHs) are interesting solutions of the Standard Model and general relativity. They may possess a “hairy” electroweak-symmetric corona outside the event horizon, which speeds up their Hawking radiation and leads them to become nearly extremal on short timescales. Their masses could range from the Planck scale up to the Earth mass. We study various methods to search for primordially produced MBHs and estimate the upper limits on their abundance. We revisit the Parker bound on magnetic monopoles and show that it can be extended by several orders of magnitude using the large-scale coherent magnetic fields in Andromeda. This sets a mass-independent constraint that MBHs have an abundance less than 4 × 10 -4 times that of dark matter. MBHs can also be captured in astrophysical systems like the Sun, the Earth, or neutron stars. There, they can become non-extremal either from merging with an oppositely charged MBH or absorbing nucleons. The resulting Hawking radiation can be detected as neutrinos, photons, or heat. High-energy neutrino searches in particular can set a stronger bound than the Parker bound for some MBH masses, down to an abundance 10 -7 of dark matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Orchestrator Telemetry Processing Pipeline

Orchestrator is a software application infrastructure for telemetry monitoring, logging, processing, and distribution. The architecture has been applied to support operations of a variety of planetary rovers. Built in Java with the Eclipse Rich Client Platform, Orchestrator can run on most commonly used operating systems. The pipeline supports configurable parallel processing that can significantly reduce the time needed to process a large volume of data products. Processors in the pipeline implement a simple Java interface and declare their required input from upstream processors. Orchestrator is programmatically constructed by specifying a list of Java processor classes that are initiated at runtime to form the pipeline. Input dependencies are checked at runtime. Fault tolerance can be configured to attempt continuation of processing in the event of an error or failed input dependency if possible, or to abort further processing when an error is detected. This innovation also provides support for Java Message Service broadcasts of telemetry objects to clients and provides a file system and relational database logging of telemetry. Orchestrator supports remote monitoring and control of the pipeline using browser-based JMX controls and provides several integration paths for pre-compiled legacy data processors. At the time of this reporting, the Orchestrator architecture has been used by four NASA customers to build telemetry pipelines to support field operations. Example applications include high-volume stereo image capture and processing, simultaneous data monitoring and logging from multiple vehicles. Example telemetry processors used in field test operations support include vehicle position, attitude, articulation, GPS location, power, and stereo images.

Powell, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Relationship Between MAIAC Smoke Plume Heights and Surface PM

Biomass burning is a source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution, which adversely impacts human health. However, quantifying the health effects from biomass burning PM2.5 is difficult. Monitoring networks generally lack the spatial density needed to capture the heterogeneity of biomass burning smoke. Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) can be used to fill spatial gaps but does not distinguish surface‐level aerosols. Plume height (PH) observations may provide constraints on the vertical distribution of smoke and its impact on surface concentrations. We assessed PH characteristics from Multi‐Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) and evaluated its correlation with colocated PM2.5 and AOD measurements. PH is generally highest over the western United States. The ratio PM2.5:AOD generally decreases with increasing PH:PBLH (planetary boundary layer height), showing that PH has the potential to refine surface PM2.5 estimates for collections of smoke events.

satellite retrieved smoke plume heights↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pushing the Limits of Pulse Shape Discrimination in a Large Liquid Xenon Detector

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a direct-detection dark matter experiment, optimized to search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) through WIMP-nucleon interactions. The main challenge in dark matter detection is differentiating between WIMP signals and background events. In LZ, the ratio of ionization to scintillation signals (charge-to-light) is the primary method for rejecting electronic recoil (ER) background. Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) offers a method for additional ER backgrounds rejection in liquid xenon detectors. In this paper, the discrimination power of PSD with the LZ experiment is discussed. To precisely characterize the scintillation pulse shape, an analysis framework is developed to reconstruct the detection time of individual photons. Using LZ calibration data, the photon-timing prompt fraction discriminator is optimized and achieves ER leakage as low as $15\%$. For specific background processes such as $^{124}$Xe double electron capture, the leakage is reduced further to about $5\%$. PSD is combined with charge-to-light to form two-factor discrimination (TFD). The optimized TFD performance is compared with the performance of the charge-to-light method, with the corresponding false positive rate reduced by up to a factor of two for large scintillation pulses. Finally, PSD and TFD are applied to data from LZ's WS2024 run and their performance is summarized.

Akerib, D. S. [SLAC; KIPAC, Menlo Park]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Material Fracturing and Failure Simulation Datasets

Fracturing is a fundamental physics phenomena with broad relevance across multiple domains, ranging from infrastructure integrity, aerospace durability, reservoir production, and seismic events. We present a diverse dataset of simulated fracture evolution and material failure generated from two numerical solvers: the phase-field method and the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM). These solvers differ in formulation, physical fidelity, and computational efficiency. The dataset includes five materials: PBX, anisotropic shale, tungsten, aluminum, and steel. For each, phase-field simulations span 400,000 cases: 200,000 under uniaxial tension and 200,000 under biaxial tension. The computationally expensive FDEM simulations include 90,000 split evenly among PBX, shale, and tungsten under uniaxial loading. All simulations begin with randomized initial fracture patterns. Each entry includes temporal data capturing fracture propagation dynamics. This comprehensive dataset is designed to support the development of foundational or surrogate machine learning approaches for predicting material failure. While no such models are introduced here, the dataset lays a robust foundation for advancing future research and innovation in these areas.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mutation of active site glutamate in serine hydroxymethyltransferase allows trapping a reactive intermediate: a combined neutron and X-ray crystallography study

Serine hydroxymethyltransferase (SHMT) is a pyridoxal-5′-phosphate (PLP) dependent enzyme that catalyzes a chemical transformation essential for the one-carbon (1C) metabolism. SHMT reversibly converts L-Ser into Gly and transfers a 1C unit to tetrahydrofolate (THF) to give 5,10-methylene-THF (5,10-MTHF). 5,10-MTHF, a 1C-unit donor, plays a crucial role in the downstream biomolecular syntheses required for the cell homeostasis and proliferation. SHMT is a prominent target for the drug discovery to battle bacterial and parasitic infections, and to treat various types of cancer. SHMT-catalyzed chemistry is governed by the general acid-base catalysis. Knowledge of the catalytic mechanism can aid drug design but can only be achieved when the atomic details of each reaction step are mapped, including accurate determination of hydrogen atom positions. Here we utilized the inactive E53Q mutant of Thermus thermophilus ( Tth ) SHMT to directly determine protonation states with room-temperature neutron crystallography and to capture a reactive intermediate containing the PLP-L-Ser external aldimine and THF in the enzyme active site. We observed protonation of the Schiff base nitrogen (N SB ) in the PLP internal aldimine but no change in the protonation states of other ionizable PLP groups and active site residues compared to wild-type Tth SHMT. X-ray structural analysis of the ternary intermediate complex E53Q-Ser-THF that eluded previous structural characterization shows the strategic positioning of the E53Q side chain in close proximity to the external aldimine and THF and reinforces the proposed role for E53 as the driver of proton transfer events along the reaction pathway.

Drago, Victoria N. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flood Estimation under Snowmelt and Rain-on-Snow Processes in Alaska: A Military Installation Perspective

Accurate flood estimation in snow-dominated and high-latitude regions remains challenging due to complex interactions among rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow (ROS) processes, which are not captured in conventional precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves. This study evaluates the Next-Generation IDF (NG-IDF) framework, an extension of PREC-IDF that incorporates total water available for runoff (precipitation minus changes in snow water equivalent), in two contrasting Alaskan watersheds of Department of Defense (DoD) significance: the Little Chena River Basin (LCRB) in interior Alaska, a tributary of the Chena River that flows through Fort Wainwright and near Eielson Air Force Base, and the Upper Ship Creek Basin (USCB), which drains Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Using long-term SNOTEL observations and event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, NG-IDF and PREC-IDF flood estimates were compared against observation-based flood frequency analyses. Results show that NG-IDF consistently reduces flood-estimation bias by 15–20% relative to PREC-IDF, particularly for snowmelt- and ROS-dominated events. In the interior LCRB, permafrost conditions can substantially amplify flood responses during snowmelt events, an effect not explicitly represented in standard design tools. These findings demonstrate that NG-IDF provides a more physically consistent and transferable framework for flood estimation in cold regions, with potential relevance to mission-critical DoD installation resilience. Projected increases in ROS frequency and permafrost degradation across Alaska further emphasize the need to integrate physics-based hydrologic models that explicitly represent snow and permafrost processes to enhance design resilience and operational readiness for military and other critical infrastructure.

Yan, Hongxiang (ORCID:000000022387403X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pushing the limits of pulse shape discrimination in a large liquid xenon detector

Abstract The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a direct-detection dark matter experiment, optimized to search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) through WIMP-nucleon interactions. The main challenge in dark matter detection is differentiating between WIMP signals and background events. In LZ, the ratio of ionization to scintillation signals (charge-to-light) is the primary method for rejecting electronic recoil (ER) background. Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) offers a method for additional ER backgrounds rejection in liquid xenon detectors. In this paper, the discrimination power of PSD with the LZ experiment is discussed. To precisely characterize the scintillation pulse shape, an analysis framework is developed to reconstruct the detection time of individual photons. Using LZ calibration data, the photon-timing tail fraction discriminator is optimized and achieves ER leakage as low as $$15\%$$ 15 % . For specific background processes such as $$^{124}$$ 124 Xe double electron capture, the leakage is reduced further to about $$5\%$$ 5 % . PSD is combined with charge-to-light to form two-factor discrimination (TFD). The optimized TFD performance is compared with the performance of the charge-to-light method, with the corresponding false positive rate reduced by up to a factor of two for large scintillation pulses. Finally, PSD and TFD are applied to data from LZ’s WS2024 run and their performance is summarized.

Akerib, D. S. [SLAC National Accelerator Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

How to Build an Empirical Speed Distribution for Dark Matter in the Solar Neighborhood

The dark matter flux in a direct detection experiment depends on its local speed distribution. This distribution has been inferred from simulations of Milky Way–like galaxies, but such models serve only as proxies, given that no simulation directly captures the detailed evolution of our own Galaxy. This motivates alternative approaches that obtain this distribution directly from observations. In this work, we utilize 98 Milky Way analogues from the TNG50 simulation to develop and validate a procedure for inferring the dark matter speed distribution using the kinematics of nearby stars. We find that the dark matter that originated from old mergers, plus that from recent nonluminous accretions, is well described by a Maxwell–Boltzmann speed distribution centered at the local standard-of-rest velocity. Meanwhile, recently accreted dark matter from massive mergers has speeds that can be traced from the associated stellar debris of these events. The stellar populations systematically underestimate the velocity dispersion of their dark matter counterparts, but a simple kinematic boost brings the two into good alignment. Using the TNG50 host galaxies, we demonstrate that combining these two contributions provides an accurate reconstruction of the local dark matter speeds. As an application of the procedure to our own Galaxy, we utilize stellar kinematic data from Gaia to quantify how the dark matter remnants from the Milky Way’s last major merger impact its speed distribution in the solar neighborhood.

Shpigel, Tal [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)]↗