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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

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DOE OSTI2023

PyApprox: A software package for sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification and surrogate modeling

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of numerical models such as those used in the earth, environmental and engineering sciences. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent a wide range of methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of new or existing algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. Here, this paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Atmosphere behavior in gas-closed mouse-algal systems - An experimental and modelling study

A NASA-sponsored research program initiated using mathematical modelling and laboratory experimentation aimed at examining the gas-exchange characteristics of artificial animal/plant systems closed to the ambient atmosphere is studied. The development of control techniques and management strategies for maintaining the atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and oxygen at physiological levels is considered. A mathematical model simulating the behavior of a gas-closed mouse-algal system under varying environmental conditions is described. To verify and validate the model simulations, an analytical system with which algal growth and gas exchange characteristics can be manipulated and measured is designed, fabricated, and tested. The preliminary results are presented.

Averner, M. M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Convective Transition Statistics over Tropical Oceans for Climate Model Diagnostics: GCM Evaluation

To assess deep convective parameterizations in a variety of GCMs and examine the fast-time-scale convective transition, a set of statistics characterizing the pickup of precipitation as a function of column water vapor (CWV), PDFs and joint PDFs of CWV and precipitation, and the dependence of the moisture–precipitation relation on tropospheric temperature is evaluated using the hourly output of two versions of the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4), NCAR CAM5 and superparameterized CAM (SPCAM). The 6-hourly output from the MJO Task Force (MJOTF)/GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project is also analyzed. Contrasting statistics produced from individual models that primarily differ in representations of moist convection suggest that convective transition statistics can substantially distinguish differences in convective representation and its interaction with the large-scale flow, while models that differ only in spatial–temporal resolution, microphysics, or ocean–atmosphere coupling result in similar statistics. Most of the models simulate some version of the observed sharp increase in precipitation as CWV exceeds a critical value, as well as that convective onset occurs at higher CWV but at lower column RH as temperature increases. While some models quantitatively capture these observed features and associated probability distributions, considerable intermodel spread and departures from observations in various aspects of the precipitation–CWV relationship are noted. For instance, in many of the models, the transition from the low-CWV, nonprecipitating regime to the moist regime for CWV around and above critical is less abrupt than in observations. Additionally, some models overproduce drizzle at low CWV, and some require CWV higher than observed for strong precipitation. For many of the models, it is particularly challenging to simulate the probability distributions of CWV at high temperature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Air Pathway Dose Modeling for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 435.1 performance assessment (PA) process (USDOE 1999) prescribes a performance objective (10 mrem y -1 ) for evaluating atmospheric releases of radionuclides from DOE low-level waste (LLW) disposal facilities. The potential dose to an individual from exposure to radionuclides released into the atmosphere from LLW disposals can be estimated by application of radionuclide -specific dose-release factors (DRFs) (mrem Ci -1 ) to estimated flux rates (Ci y -1 ) at a particular time and location. In Revision 0 of this report, Lee (2006) calculated DRFs for potential atmospheric releases of 15 volatile radionuclides from seven ELLWF disposal units in support of the 2008 ELLWF PA (WSRC 2008). The mainframe version of the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) dose model CAP88 was used in the Revision 0 assessment. In Revision 1 of this report (Dixon and Minter 2017), the site-specific Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) atmospheric dose models MAXDOSE-SR version 2013 (Stone and Jannik 2013a) and MAXINE version 2017 (Bell 2017) were used to calculate DRFs for ten radionuclides. This work (Revision 2) supersedes Revision 0 (Lee 2006) and Revision 1 (Dixon and Minter 2017) of this report. The Revision 2 method for estimating new DRFs for the ELLWF disposal units is described in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Biases in Global Monsoon Simulations from the Perspective of Atmospheric Energy Transport

Understanding global monsoon (GM) variability and projecting its future changes rely heavily on climate models. However, climate models generally show pronounced biases in GM simulations, and the reasons for this remain unclear. Here, in this study, we evaluate the performance of 20 pairs of climate models that participated in both phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and phase 6 of CMIP (CMIP6) and identify the sources of their GM simulation biases from an energy transport perspective. The multimodel mean improvement in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is demonstrated by the increasing skill scores for various GM metrics from 0.20–0.79 to 0.48–0.83. More specifically, the dry biases in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon (NHSM) precipitation in CMIP5 [root-mean-square error (RMSE): 1.85 mm day −1 ] are reduced in CMIP6 (RMSE: 1.66 mm day −1 ). This higher simulation skill is associated with higher skill in simulating the precipitation-solstitial mode, monsoon intensity, and monsoon domains. The improvement in the NHSM precipitation simulation results from that in the meridional transport of atmospheric energy. Atmospheric energy budget analysis shows that the negative biases in downward surface longwave radiation and northward energy transport are smaller in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 in the boreal summer, resulting in a more realistic interhemispheric thermal contrast and meridional gradient of moist static energy. However, a major weakness of the CMIP6 models is found in the Southern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon precipitation simulation due to the positive bias in the top-of-the-atmosphere downward longwave radiation. This study shows that reasonably reproducing the meridional global atmospheric energy transportation is necessary for skillful GM simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Bounding Species Distribution Models

Species distribution models are increasing in popularity for mapping suitable habitat for species of management concern. Many investigators now recognize that extrapolations of these models with geographic information systems (GIS) might be sensitive to the environmental bounds of the data used in their development, yet there is no recommended best practice for "clamping" model extrapolations. We relied on two commonly used modeling approaches: classification and regression tree (CART) and maximum entropy (Maxent) models, and we tested a simple alteration of the model extrapolations, bounding extrapolations to the maximum and minimum values of primary environmental predictors, to provide a more realistic map of suitable habitat of hybridized Africanized honey bees in the southwestern United States. Findings suggest that multiple models of bounding, and the most conservative bounding of species distribution models, like those presented here, should probably replace the unbounded or loosely bounded techniques currently used [Current Zoology 57 (5): 642-647, 2011].

Stohlgren, Thomas J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Linear Parameter-Varying Modeling and Control of Flexible Loads for Grid Services

Flexible loads have great potential to improve the electric grid's flexibility and stability. To effectively control large ensembles of heterogeneous loads, reliable models thereof are required. This paper presents a data-driven modeling and control approach to manage flexible loads for providing grid services. We leverage a linear parameter-varying autoregressive moving average (LPV-ARMA) model to describe the aggregate load response, where the parameters in the model are used to capture external environmental impacts (e.g., weather). A gain-scheduling feedback controller is then developed to adapt to environmental variations. This data-driven approach can be easily applied to different types of loads in various environmental conditions. In addition to the ensemble controller, distributed load controllers are designed to deliver grid services, while maintaining the quality of service of inherent load tasks. We demonstrate the work on the IEEE 37-node distribution system for real-time power regulation services through control of thermostatically controlled loads.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Additive Manufacturing to Fabricate High Temperature Alloys With Co-Designed Mechanical Properties and Environmental Resistance

A paradigm shift in the traditional sequential design approaches is critically essential to create application-specific hierarchical and multifunctional materials with superior long-term performance for next-generation energy technologies involving extreme environments. In the current work, we aim to leverage the flexibility and geometric/compositional complexity offered by additive manufacturing to demonstrate this new approach by codesigning a compositionally graded Ni-based alloy for molten salts\sCO 2 heat exchangers to enable mitigation of environmental degradation of surfaces exposed to molten halide salts, while simultaneously suppressing the consequent deterioration in mechanical stability. Further, thermokinetic modeling describing the underlying physics of thermally- and environmentally induced spatiotemporal compositional and microstructural evolution will be employed to predict the parameter space of material deposition processes and precisely identify the required composition gradient. Preliminary corrosion and mechanical testing of the dual material demonstrated the potential of the material to replace existing solid solution strengthened materials for this application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Overall chilled water system energy consumption modeling and optimization

The emergence of increasingly affordable variable-speed drive technology has changed the approach used to control chilled water systems equipped with these drives. The purpose of this research was to develop an integrated chilled water modeling technique that can determine the optimal system setpoints and estimate the energy saving potential of chiller system. The chiller system equipped with Variable Frequency Drives (VFDs) on cooling tower fans and condenser water pumps. To accomplish the objective, physical component models of the centrifugal chiller, cooling tower and condenser water pump were established with the goal of incorporating the system’s condenser water flow rate and cooling tower fan speeds as optimization variables. Furthermore, a cooling load prediction algorithm was developed using a multiple non-linear regression model to approximate the building’s cooling load subject to a range of environmental conditions. The inputs and outputs of the individual component models were linked to estimate how adjusting the cooling tower fan and condenser water pump speed would influence the system’s comprehensive performance. Here, the overall system model was then optimized using a generalized reduced gradient optimization algorithm to determine the potential energy savings through speed control with VFDs and to ascertain a control logic strategy for the building automation system to operate the heating and cooling system. A case-study was performed on a single chiller system at a museum and the model was calibrated according to logged data collected over four months. Results showed that for the system analyzed, the energy saving of optimizing the cooling tower fan system was found to be 12–15%, while the energy saving potential of optimizing the condenser water pump with the cooling tower fan was negligible. Additionally, comparing different cooling tower fan control strategies showed that a wet-bulb approach-based cooling tower control strategy was shown to have the highest correlation to the optimized fan speed with an R 2 of 0.924.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2000

Selected contribution: a three-dimensional model for assessment of in vitro toxicity in balaena mysticetus renal tissue

This study established two- and three-dimensional renal proximal tubular cell cultures of the endangered species bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus), developed SV40-transfected cultures, and cloned the 61-amino acid open reading frame for the metallothionein protein, the primary binding site for heavy metal contamination in mammals. Microgravity research, modulations in mechanical culture conditions (modeled microgravity), and shear stress have spawned innovative approaches to understanding the dynamics of cellular interactions, gene expression, and differentiation in several cellular systems. These investigations have led to the creation of ex vivo tissue models capable of serving as physiological research analogs for three-dimensional cellular interactions. These models are enabling studies in immune function, tissue modeling for basic research, and neoplasia. Three-dimensional cellular models emulate aspects of in vivo cellular architecture and physiology and may facilitate environmental toxicological studies aimed at elucidating biological functions and responses at the cellular level. Marine mammals occupy a significant ecological niche (72% of the Earth's surface is water) in terms of the potential for information on bioaccumulation and transport of terrestrial and marine environmental toxins in high-order vertebrates. Few ex vivo models of marine mammal physiology exist in vitro to accomplish the aforementioned studies. Techniques developed in this investigation, based on previous tissue modeling successes, may serve to facilitate similar research in other marine mammals.

Whales/genetics/physiology↗

NASA NTRS2000

Cellular Responses to Mechanical Stress Selected Contribution: A Three-Dimensional Model for Assessment of in Vitro Toxicity in Balaena Mysticetus Renal Tissue

Goodwin, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

P69 Using the NASA-Unified WRF to Assess the Impacts of Real-Time Vegetation on Simulations of Severe Weather

Since June 2010, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT; Goodman et al. 2004; Darden et al. 2010; Stano et al. 2012; Fuell et al. 2012) Center has been generating a real-time Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and corresponding Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite based on reflectances from NASA s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. This dataset is generated at 0.01 resolution across the Continental United States (CONUS), and updated daily. The goal of producing such a vegetation dataset is to improve over the default climatological GVF dataset in land surface and numerical weather prediction models, in order to have better simulations of heat and moisture exchange between the land surface and the planetary boundary layer. Details on the SPoRT/MODIS vegetation composite algorithm are presented in Case et al. (2011). Vegetation indices such as GVF and Leaf Area Index (LAI) are used by land surface models (LSMs) to represent the horizontal and vertical density of plant vegetation (Gutman and Ignatov 1998), in order to calculate transpiration, interception and radiative shading. Both of these indices are related to the NDVI; however, there is an inherent ambiguity in determining GVF and LAI simultaneously from NDVI, as described in Gutman and Ignatov (1998). One practice is to specify the LAI while allowing the GVF to vary both spatially and temporally, as is done in the Noah LSM (Chen and Dudhia 2001; Ek et al. 2003). Operational versions of Noah within several of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global and regional modeling systems hold the LAI fixed, while the GVF varies according to a global monthly climatology. This GVF climatology was derived from NDVI data on the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) polar orbiting satellite, using information from 1985 to 1991 (Gutman and Ignatov 1998; Jiang et al. 2010). Representing data at the mid-point of every month, the climatological dataset is on a grid with 0.144 (~16 km) spatial resolution and is distributed with the community WRF model (Ek et al. 2003; Jiang et al. 2010; Skamarock et al. 2008).

Case, Jonathan L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Developing and Evaluating a Smart Curtailment Strategy Integrated with a Wind Turbine Manufacturer Platform

The Renewable Energy Wildlife Institute lead a team of scientists, wind developers, and turbine manufacturers in a study to develop and test a “smart curtailment” system intended to help reduce bat collisions with wind turbines. The Vestas Bat Protection System (VBPS) is a newly developed software module within the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system of Vestas turbines. The VBPS combines data from commercially available environmental sensors and the turbine’s built-in sensors with the Vestas SCADA system. VBPS is designed to receive environmental data from sensors on the turbine such as temperature, wind speed, wind direction, time of day, and time of year, relays that information to the SCADA system to determine whether to execute turbine curtailments at any given time. The goals of this study were to 1) develop a bat fatality risk model based on bat activity data and environmental data collected in year 1, and to 2) evaluate the VBPS, using the bat fatality risk model to implement curtailment, in comparison to “blanket curtailment” (turbines curtailed when wind speed is below 5.0 meters per second (m/s)) and “control” (normally operating, feathered below 3.0 m/s) turbines in year 2. The field study took place at a wind energy facility in Iowa during the fall bat migration seasons (July – October) in 2021 and 2022. For VBPS to succeed as a viable strategy for the minimization of bat fatalities, it should meet or exceed the performance of blanket curtailment. Specifically, the VBPS should meet the following performance targets to demonstrate whether it an effective, practical risk reduction measure: (1) Turbines operating VBPS should have equal or fewer bat fatalities compared to turbines operating with blanket curtailment, and significantly fewer bat fatalities compared to control turbines; and (2) Turbines operating VBPS should have greater power production compared to turbines operating with blanket curtailment. The study was completed in accordance with the Statement of Project Objectives and within the terms of the Budget Justification. This Final Report describes the progress, challenges, and outcomes of the study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Precipitating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds in the E3SMv1 Atmosphere Model: A Case Study from the ARM MAGIC Field Campaign

This paper presents a process-oriented evaluation of precipitating stratocumulus and its transition to cumulus in version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) using comprehensive case-study observations from a field campaign of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM). The E3SMv1 single-column model (SCM) of the marine boundary layer and its low clouds and precipitation are compared to observations including subcloud drizzle retrievals from a combination of Doppler radar and lidar backscatter measurements. Additionally, the SCM is also compared to a large-eddy simulation (LES) of the same case. The combination of advanced remote sensing observations and LES is a powerful framework to evaluate the physical parameterizations of large-scale models. Given the observed large-scale environment, the E3SMv1 SCM realistically represents the evolution of clouds and boundary layer structure during the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition. The model well simulates the liquid water path and its diurnal cycle in the stratocumulus period as well as the two-layer vertical thermodynamic structure and lower cloud fraction in the transition period. E3SMv1’s success in simulating the cloud in the stratocumulus period permitted examination of its precipitation processes. Here problems were identified with E3SMv1 producing an unrealistically small subcloud precipitation fraction, an unrealistic double peak in the vertical profiles of precipitation mass, and drizzle that evaporates too close to the surface. Further model diagnostics determined that these unrealistic characteristics resulted from an overly long microphysics time step and an unrealistic parameterization of the precipitation fraction. These results imply that careful consideration of these issues is needed in order to better simulate precipitation processes in marine stratocumulus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Convective-Environmental Interactions in the Tropics

During the four years of this grant performance, the PI and her research group have made a number of significant contributions toward better understanding convective processes over the Amazon. First, she made available to the broader community a two-year data set of convective storm metrics based on SIPAM radar data from the central Amazon that has been utilized widely. Second, her students analyzed cold pool and heating characteristics of Amazonian convection and showed in heretofore unknown ways how both can impact new convective initiation (e.g., through multiple cold pool interactions and gravity waves formed via pulsed heating). Finally, her group more broadly showed how Amazonian and Indian Ocean convection interacts with the large-scale environment, especially low-level winds (e.g., the nocturnal Amazonian low-level jet) and deeper tropospheric moisture, to help it organize and how this interaction is represented in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of historical precipitation interannual variability in CMIP6 over the United States

Interannual precipitation variability profoundly influences society via its effects on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and disaster risks. In this study, we use daily in situ precipitation observations from the global historical climatology network-daily (GHCN-D) to assess the ability of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, including the 50-member fifth-generation Canadian Earth System Model single model initial-condition large ensemble (CanESM5_SMILE), to realistically simulate historical interannual precipitation variability trends within 17 regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). We assess how accurately the CMIP6 simulations align with observational data across annual, summer, and winter periods, focusing on four key hydrometeorological metrics, including interannual precipitation variability, relative interannual precipitation variability (coefficient of variation), annual mean precipitation, and annual wet day frequency. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 ensemble members generally reproduce the spatial patterns of observed trends in annual mean precipitation. In most regions, models agree well with the signs of observed changes in annual mean precipitation, though discrepancies in trend magnitude are evident. Further, observed trends in winter mean precipitation broadly exhibit a spatial pattern similar to that of the observed annual mean. However, analysis of the CanESM5_SMILE shows that trends in precipitation variability may primarily be the result of model-simulated internal variability, suggesting caution in interpreting multi-model single-realization ensemble results. Challenges in accurately simulating interannual precipitation variability underscore the need for ongoing model refinement and validation to enhance climate projections, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

wrfhydro

This dataset contains a continuous WRF-Hydro simulation for the CACTI field campaign. The simulated period is 1-Aug-2018 through 21-Mar-2019 with hourly model output. The simulation is made with two grids that match the two outer LASSO-CACTI grids, with 7.5 km and 2.5 km grid spacings. Forcing data for WRF-Hydro was obtained from the ERA5-Land product. Values from this WRF-Hydro simulation were used to initialize the soil state for each LASSO-CACTI simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

2020 Multiscale Microbial Dynamics Modeling Course

The 2020 Multiscale Microbial Dynamics course is adapted from the virtual 2020 Mutliscale Microbial Dynamics Summer School that was hosted by Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) science user facility located on the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) campus, in collaboration with the Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase). The course course covers how to incorporate microbial metagenomic and environmental metabolite data from watershed ecosystems into metabolic and community modeling using computational frameworks, such as KBase and PFLOTRAN. The curriculum includes lectures and software and data analysis tutorials. All materials are freely accessible to the community as part of the 2020 Microbial Dynamics Summer School Organization in KBase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗