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DOE OSTI2024

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2014

Crystallization In High Level Waste (HLW) Glass Melters: Operational Experience From The Savannah River Site

processing strategy for the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). The basis of this alternative approach is an empirical model predicting the crystal accumulation in the WTP glass discharge riser and melter bottom as a function of glass composition, time, and temperature. When coupled with an associated operating limit (e.g., the maximum tolerable thickness of an accumulated layer of crystals), this model could then be integrated into the process control algorithms to formulate crystal tolerant high level waste (HLW) glasses targeting higher waste loadings while still meeting process related limits and melter lifetime expectancies. This report provides a review of the scaled melter testing that was completed in support of the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) melter. Testing with scaled melters provided the data to define the DWPF operating limits to avoid bulk (volume) crystallization in the un-agitated DWPF melter and provided the data to distinguish between spinels generated by K-3 refractory corrosion versus spinels that precipitated from the HLW glass melt pool. This report includes a review of the crystallization observed with the scaled melters and the full scale DWPF melters (DWPF Melter 1 and DWPF Melter 2). Examples of actual DWPF melter attainment with Melter 2 are given. The intent is to provide an overview of lessons learned, including some example data, that can be used to advance the development and implementation of an empirical model and operating limit for crystal accumulation for WTP. Operation of the first and second (current) DWPF melters has demonstrated that the strategy of using a liquidus temperature predictive model combined with a 100 °C offset from the normal melter operating temperature of 1150 °C (i.e., the predicted liquidus temperature (TL) of the glass must be 1050 °C or less) has been successful in preventing any detrimental accumulation of spinel in the DWPF melt pool, and spinel has not been observed in any of the pour stream glass samples. Spinel was observed at the bottom of DWPF Melter 1 as a result of K-3 refractory corrosion. Issues have occurred with accumulation of spinel in the pour spout during periods of operation at higher waste loadings. Given that both DWPF melters were or have been in operation for greater than 8 years, the service life of the melters has far exceeded design expectations. It is possible that the DWPF liquidus temperature approach is conservative, in that it may be possible to successfully operate the melter with a small degree of allowable crystallization in the glass. This could be a viable approach to increasing waste loading in the glass assuming that the crystals are suspended in the melt and swept out through the riser and pour spout. Additional study is needed, and development work for WTP might be leveraged to support a different operating limit for the DWPF. Several recommendations are made regarding considerations that need to be included as part of the WTP crystal tolerant strategy based on the DWPF development work and operational data reviewed here. These include: Identify and consider the impacts of potential heat sinks in the WTP melter and glass pouring system; Consider the contributions of refractory corrosion products, which may serve to nucleate additional crystals leading to further accumulation; Consider volatilization of components from the melt (e.g., boron, alkali, halides, etc.) and determine their impacts on glass crystallization behavior; Evaluate the impacts of glass REDuction/OXidation (REDOX) conditions and the distribution of temperature within the WTP melt pool and melter pour chamber on crystal accumulation rate; Consider the impact of precipitated crystals on glass viscosity; Consider the impact of an accumulated crystalline layer on thermal convection currents and bubbler effectiveness within the melt pool; Evaluate the impact of spinel accumulation on Joule heating of the WTP melt pool; and Include noble metals in glass melt experiments because of their potential to act as nucleation sites for spinel crystallization.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2013

The Low-Recycling Lithium Boundary and Implications for Plasma Transport

Pumping of incident hydrogen and impurity ions by lithium enables control of the particle inventory and fueling profile in magnetic-confined plasmas, and may raise the plasma temperature near the wall. As a result, the density gradient is expected to contribute substantially to the free-energy, affecting particle and thermal transport from micro-turbulence which is typically the dominant transport mechanism in high-temperature fusion experiments. Transport in gyrokinetic simulations of density-gradient-dominated profiles is characterized by a small linear critical gradient, large particle flux, and preferential diffusion of cold particles. As a result, the heat flux is below 5/2 or even 3/2 times the particle flux, usually assumed to be the minimum for convection. While surprising, this result is consistent with increasing entropy. Coupled TEM-ITG (ion-temperature- gradient) simulations using ηe = ηi find η = ∇T /∇n∼0.8 maximizes the linear critical pressure gradient, which suggests that experiments operating near marginal ITG stability with larger η would increase the linear critical pressure gradient by transferring free-energy from the temperature gradient to the density gradient. Simulations were performed with profiles predicted for the Lithium Tokamak Experiment (LTX) if ion thermal transport was neoclassical, while electron thermal transport and particle transport were a fixed ratio above the neoclassical level. A robust TEM instability was found for the outer half radius, while the ITG was found to be driven unstable as well during gas puff fueling. This suggests that TEM transport will be an important transport mechanism in high-temperature low-recycling fusion experiments, and in the absence of stabilizing mechanisms, may dominate over neoclassical transport. A diagnostic suite has been developed to measure hydrogen and impurity emission in LTX in order to determine the lower bound on recycling that can be achieved in a small tokamak using solid lithium coatings, assess its dependence on the operating condition of the lithium surface, and evaluate its impact on the discharge. Coatings on the close-fitting stainless-steel substrate produce a significant reduction in recyling, so that the effective particle confinement times are as low as 1 ms. Measurements of particle inventory in the plasma and hydrogen Lyman-α emission indicate that hydrogen recycling at the surface increases as subsequent discharges are performed; nevertheless, strong pumping of hydrogen is observed even after almost double the cumulative fueling is applied that should saturate the lithium coating to the penetration depth of hydrogen ions. Probe measurements show that when external fueling is terminated, the scrape-off-layer of discharges with fresh coatings decays to lower density and rises to higher electron temperature than for discharges with a partially-passivated surface, consistent with reduced edge cooling from recycled particles. Near the end of the discharge, higher plasma current correlates with reduced τp * and hydrogen emission, suggesting that discharges with fresh coatings achieve higher electron temperature in the core. A novel approach using neutral modeling was developed for the inverse problem of determining the distribution of recycled particle flux from PFC surfaces given a large number of emission measurements, revealing that extremely low levels of recycling (Rcore∼0.6 and Rplate∼0.8) have been achieved with solid lithium coatings. Together with impurity emission measurements, modeling suggests that during periods of particularly low electron density, influx of impurities from the walls contributes substantially to the global particle balance.

magnetic confinement↗

DOE OSTI2010

Potential Environmental Impacts of Hydrogen-based Transportation and Power Systems (Final Report)

Hydrogen (H 2 ) offers advantages as an energy carrier: minimal discharge of pollutants, production from multiple sources, increased thermodynamic efficiencies compared to fossil fuels, and reduced dependence on foreign oil. However, potential impacts from the H 2 generation processes, transport and distribution of H 2 , and releases of H 2 into the atmosphere have been proposed. The goal of this project was to analyze the effects of emissions of hydrogen, the six criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases on climate, human health, materials and structures. This project was part of a larger effort by DOE to assess the life-cycle costs and benefits and environmental impacts to inform decisions regarding future hydrogen research. Technical Approach: A modeling approach was developed and used to evaluate the potential environmental effects associated with the conversion of the on-road vehicle fleet from fossil-fuel vehicles to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. GATOR-GCMOM was the primary tool used to predict atmospheric concentrations of gases and aerosols for selected scenarios. This model accounts for all feedbacks among major atmospheric processes based on first principles. The future scenarios and the emission rates selected for this analysis of hydrogen environmental effects are based on the scenarios developed by IPCC. The scenarios selected for the model simulations are a 2000 and 2050 A1B base cases, and a 2050 A1B case with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). The hydrogen fuel cell scenario assumed conversion of 90% of fossil-fuel on-road vehicles (FFOV) in developed countries and 45% of FFOVs vehicles in other countries to HFCVs, with the H 2 produced by steam-reforming of natural gas (SHFCVs). Simulations were conducted to examine the effect of converting the world's FFOVs to HFCVs, where the H 2 is produced by wind-powered electrolysis (WHFCVs). In all scenarios a 3% leakage of H 2 consumed was assumed. Two new models were developed that provide the ability to evaluate a wider range of conditions and address some of the uncertainties that exist in the evaluation of hydrogen emissions. A simplified global hydrogen cycle model that simulates hydrogen dynamics in the troposphere and stratosphere was developed. A Monte Carlo framework was developed to address hydrogen uptake variability for different types of ecosystems. Findings 1. Converting vehicles worldwide in 2050 to SHFCVs at 90% penetration in developed countries and 45% penetration in other countries is expected to reduce NO x , CO, CO 2 , CH 4 , some other organic gases, ozone, PAN, black carbon, and other particle components in the troposphere, but may increase some other organic gases, depending on emissions. Conversion to SHFCVs is also expected to cool the troposphere and warm the stratosphere, but to a lesser extent than WHFCVs. Finally, SHFCVs are expected to increase UTLS ozone while decreasing upper stratospheric ozone, but to a lesser extent than WHFCVs. 2. The predicted criteria pollutant concentrations from the GATOR-GCMOM simulations indicated that near-surface annual mean concentrations in the US are likely to increase from the 2000 base case to the 2050 A1B base case for CO 2 and ozone due to the increased economic activity, but to decrease for CO, NO 2 , SO 2 , and PM 10 due to improved pollution control equipment and energy efficiencies. The shift to SHFCVs in 2050 was predicted to result in decreased concentrations for all the criteria pollutants, except for SO 2 and PM 10 . The higher predicted concentrations for SO 2 and PM 10 were attributed to increased emissions using the steam-reforming method to generate H 2 . If renewable methods such as wind-based electrolysis were used to generate H 2 , the emissions of SO 2 and PM 10 would be lower. 3. The effects on air quality, human health, ecosystem, and building structures were quantified by comparing the GATOR-GCMOM model output and accepted health and ecosystem effects levels and ambient air quality criteria. Shifting to HFCVs is expected to result in improved air quality and benefits to human health. Shifting to HFCVs is unlikely to result in damage to buildings. 4. Results are thought to be robust for larger leakage rates of H 2 and for greater penetrations of HFCVs, since the controlling factor for stratospheric ozone impacts is the reduction in fossil-fuel greenhouse gases and the resulting surface cooling, which reduces water vapor emissions and stratospheric warming, which increases tropopause stability reducing water vapor transport to the stratosphere. 5. The supplemental modeling results were generally supportive of the results from the GATOR-GCMOM simulations, and recommendations for additional analyses were made. Extending the duration of the simulation to coincide with the time required for hydrogen mixing ratios to attain a steady state condition was recommended. Further evaluation of algorithms to describe hydrogen uptake in the model was also recommended.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2019

Overview of new MAST physics in anticipation of first results from MAST Upgrade

We report that the mega amp spherical tokamak (MAST) was a low aspect ratio device (R/a = 0.85/0.65 ~ 1.3) with similar poloidal cross-section to other medium-size tokamaks. The physics programme concentrates on addressing key physics issues for the operation of ITER, design of DEMO and future spherical tokamaks by utilising high resolution diagnostic measurements closely coupled with theory and modelling to significantly advance our understanding. An empirical scaling of the energy confinement time that favours higher power, lower collisionality devices is consistent with gyrokinetic modelling of electron scale turbulence. Measurements of ion scale turbulence with beam emission spectroscopy and gyrokinetic modelling in up-down symmetric plasmas find that the symmetry of the turbulence is broken by flow shear. Near the non-linear stability threshold, flow shear tilts the density fluctuation correlation function and skews the fluctuation amplitude distribution. Results from fast particle physics studies include the observation that sawteeth are found to redistribute passing and trapped fast particles injected from neutral beam injectors in equal measure, suggesting that resonances between the m = 1 perturbation and the fast ion orbits may be playing a dominant role in the fast ion transport. Measured D–D fusion products from a neutron camera and a charged fusion product detector are 40% lower than predictions from TRANSP/NUBEAM, highlighting possible deficiencies in the guiding centre approximation. Modelling of fast ion losses in the presence of resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) can reproduce trends observed in experiments when the plasma response and charge-exchange losses are accounted for. Measurements with a neutral particle analyser during merging-compression start-up indicate the acceleration of ions and electrons. Transport at the plasma edge has been improved through reciprocating probe measurements that have characterised a geodesic acoustic mode at the edge of an ohmic L-mode plasma and particle-in-cell modelling has improved the interpretation of plasma potential estimates from ball-pen probes. The application of RMPs leads to a reduction in particle confinement in L-mode and H-mode and an increase in the core ionization source. The ejection of secondary filaments following type-I ELMs correlates with interactions with surfaces near the X-point. Simulations of the interaction between pairs of filaments in the scrape-off layer suggest this results in modest changes to their velocity, and in most cases can be treated as moving independently. A stochastic model of scrape-off layer profile formation based on the superposition of non-interacting filaments is in good agreement with measured time-average profiles. Transport in the divertor has been improved through fast camera imaging, indicating the presence of a quiescent region devoid of filament near the X-point, extending from the separatrix to $ψ_n$ ~ 1.02. Simulations of turbulent transport in the divertor show that the angle between the divertor leg on the curvature vector strongly influences transport into the private flux region via the interchange mechanism. Coherence imaging measurements show counter-streaming flows of impurities due to gas puffing increasing the pressure on field lines where the gas is ionised. MAST Upgrade is based on the original MAST device, with substantially improved capabilities to operate with a Super-X divertor to test extended divertor leg concepts. SOLPS-ITER modelling predicts the detachment threshold will be reduced by more than a factor of 2, in terms of upstream density, in the Super-X compared with a conventional configuration and that the radiation front movement is passively stabilised before it reaches the X-point. 1D fluid modelling reveals the key role of momentum and power loss mechanisms in governing detachment onset and evolution. Analytic modelling indicates that long legs placed at large major radius, or equivalently low at the target compared with the X-point are more amenable to external control. With MAST Upgrade experiments expected in 2019, a thorough characterisation of the sources of the intrinsic error field has been carried out and a mitigation strategy developed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2010

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Prefabricated High-Strength Rebar Systems with High-Performance Concrete for Accelerated Construction of Nuclear Concrete Structures

This project aimed to reduce the field construction times and fabrication costs of reinforced concrete (RC) nuclear structures through the use of: 1) high-strength steel deformed reinforcing bar (rebar); 2) prefabricated high-strength rebar (HSR) assemblies with headed anchorages; and 3) high-strength concrete (HSC). The focus of the project was not to develop new innovations on materials, but rather to fill a major knowledge gap on the effectiveness, code conformity, and viability (i.e., practicality, commercial availability) of existing high-strength materials in nuclear structures, especially in shear walls, their connections/joints, and around penetrations. These advances promote the Nuclear Energy Enabling Technologies Advanced Methods for Manufacturing (NEET-1) goals of accelerating deployment schedules by at least 6 months and reducing component fabrication costs by 20% or more. Toward this vision, the following objectives were identified and completed: Develop limit-benefit and cost-benefit analysis frameworks: The structural and economic limits and benefits of HSR and HSC in nuclear walls were evaluated. Importantly, it was found that modest increases in concrete strength up to 10.0 ksi and rebar yield strength up to 100 ksi result in the most economic designs and improved structural performance (Barbachyn et al., 2017a and Barbachyn et al., 2017b). Also, an industry survey was distributed to determine the cost benefits associated with prefabrication. Importantly, on-site worker-hours are significantly reduced, allowing for significantly accelerated construction schedules (Devine et al. 2018b). Develop an optimization methodology for structural design: An optimization study was deemed not necessary since the trivial solution with maximized use of high-strength materials and prefabrication always resulted in the largest cost and time savings. Instead, the benefits (and limits) of high-strength materials and prefabrication on construction costs and on-site construction time were investigated through a parametric study. Cost-reductions through the use of HSR and HSC were found to be greater than 40%. Also, on-site construction time of nuclear shear walls can be reduced by up to 83% through the use of prefabricated rebar assemblies. Conduct experimental evaluations of nuclear shear walls and wall-foundation joints: A large scale experimental program was completed on shear-critical RC cantilever deep beams. From these experiments, it was demonstrated that increasing rebar yield strength had a greater effect on increasing lateral strength than increasing the concrete compressive strength. Further, using HSR together with HSC resulted in the highest lateral strength and displacement ductility (Devine et al. 2018a). Additionally, large-scale reversed-cyclic lateral load tests were conducted on RC shear walls. It was demonstrated that through the utilization of HSR and HSC, a wall with 55% reduced vertical and horizontal rebar area was able to achieve 91% of the peak lateral strength of a conventional wall using state-of-practice materials with the same geometry. Further, trim reinforcement with headed anchorages around the penetrations proved to be effective. Develop validated numerical simulation models: Numerical modeling was completed in two phases during this project using 3 different finite element software packages. The first phase used existing measured data from previous experimental studies on stocky RC walls to validate simplified predictive models. Models using two different programs were validated based on a database of 38 stocky walls (Barbachyn et al., 2017a). The second phase occurred after experimental testing using a third and more detailed finite element package. Prediction improvements for the initial stiffness, lateral deformations, damage propagation, and failure mechanisms were targeted. The resulting detailed models more accurately predicted the peak lateral strength, initial and secant stiffnesses, lateral deformations, and cracking patterns of the wall test specimens subjected to reversed-cyclic lateral loading as compared to the simplified pretest models. Develop validated design procedures, tools, and criteria: This project evaluated the accuracy of existing closed-form design equations from U.S. building design standards and previous research (Barbachyn et al. 2017a and Devine et al. 2018a). It was shown that the current predictive equations for shear strength capacity need to be revisited as they provide significant scatter and gross overestimates, indicating the potential for unconservative designs. Further, for both the deep beam and shear wall specimens, the numerical models and flexural capacity predictions provided the most accurate strength predictions. Develop cost-effective field construction procedures: To promote the use of prefabricated rebar assemblies, the following construction conditions where prefabrication would be used instead of in-place rebar tying were identified from an industry survey: 1) to save on construction schedule; 2) to improve safety and/or quality control; 3) for areas with heavy rebar congestion; and 4) for structures with significant repetition in rebar layout. All of these conditions directly apply and benefit nuclear construction where construction costs and schedules are extensive, safety and quality are of utmost importance, the reinforcement is extremely dense, and the reinforcement layout is repetitive in many regions of the shear walls. Additionally, an experimental study was conducted to investigate the changes in bar spacing (with respect to code-required rebar spacing and placement tolerances) when a horizontally assembled prefabricated two-dimensional (2D) rebar mat or three-dimensional (3D) rebar cage is lifted (or tripped) to a vertical position. It was found that the bars involved in both the lateral translation of the rebar assemblies (i.e., movement of the assembly in its horizontal position) and the tripping process were most susceptible to large spacing changes, and thus, their positions within the assembly would need to be checked after the placement of the assembly in place within the formwork. Importantly, the spacings of all of the other bars in the assembly were not affected significantly by the lateral translation and tripping process, thereby eliminating the need to recheck their positions within the assembly (Devine et al. 2018b).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Parallel derivative-free optimization for simulation-based design of behind-the-meter energy systems

In this work, the integrated design and dispatch of behind-the-meter or distributed resources (e.g. stationary battery storage and solar PV generation) is considered. A simulation-based framework is employed, generating high-fidelity results with closed-loop predictive control at a fine resolution, at the expense of high computational cost (several minutes to a few hours per design point). To address this challenge, parallel derivative-free design methods are considered. Four methods are compared, including state-of-the-art surrogate-based methods (Radial-Basis Functions and Gaussian processes) and sampling strategies, an evolutionary-based method, and a simple sequential grid refinement method. As a case study, two types of design problem with increasing complexity are considered, namely, the design of behind-the-meter resources (three design variables) and the inclusion of grid capacity (four design variables). The second yields a constrained design problem for which violations can only be determined after solving the computationally expensive simulation. For the three-dimensional case, all methods present a good performance, achieving a solution within 1% of the optimum after the first iteration, with the sequential grid refinement exhibiting the fastest convergence and achieving the best final objective value. This indicates that the parallel evaluation of multiple sampling points may be more important than the choice of method for small decision spaces. For the four-dimensional constrained case, the Genetic Algorithm presents the best tradeoff between performance and computational effort, while the rough objective function terrain generated by constraint violation penalties reduces the performance of surrogate-based methods. Contour plots with flat regions indicate flexibility in the optimal design and highlight the importance of characterizing the solution space.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2013

The HyMeX Special Observation Period in Central Italy: Precipitation Measurements, Retrieval Techniques and Preliminary Results

The Mediterranean area concentrates the major natural risks related to the water cycle, including heavy precipitation and flash-flooding during the fall season. The capability to predict such high-impact events remains weak because of the contribution of very fine-scale processes and their non-linear interactions with the larger scale processes. These societal and science issues motivate the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, http://www.hymex.orgl) experimental programme. HyMeX aims at a better quantification and understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean with emphasis on intense events. The observation strategy of HyMEX is organized in a long-term (4 years) Enhanced Observation Periods (EOP) and short-term (2 months) Special Observation Periods (SOP). HyMEX has identified 3 main Mediterranean target areas: North-West (NW), Adriatic (A) and South-East (SE). Within each target area several hydrometeorological sites for heavy rainfall and flash flooding have been set up. The hydrometeorological sire in Central Italy (CI) is interested by both western and eastern fronts coming from the Atlantic Ocean and Siberia, respectively. Orographic precipitations play an important role due to the central Apennine range, which reaches nearly 3000 m (Gran Sasso peak). Moreover, convective systems commonly develop in CI during late summer and beginning of autumn, often causing localized hailstorms with cluster organized cells. Western fronts may heavily hit the Tiber basin crossing large urban areas (Rome), whereas eastern fronts can cause flash floods along the Adriatic coastline. Two major basins are involved within Cl region: Tiber basin (1000 km long) and its tributary Aniene and the Aterno-Pescara basin (300 km long). The first HyMeX SOP1.1 was carried out from Sept. till Nov. 2012 in the NW target area The Italian SOP1.1 was coordinated by the Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, a city located in the CI heart. The CI area was covered by a uniquely dense meteorological instrumentation thanks to a synergy between Italian institutions and NASA-GSFC. The following RADARs were operated: a Doppler single-polarization C-band radar located at Mt Midia; the Polar 55C Doppler dual-polarization C-band radar located in Rome; a Doppler C-hand polarimetric radar located at Il Monte (Abnazo); a polarimetric X-band mini-radar in L' Aquila; a polarimetric X-hand portable mini-radar in Rome; a single-polarization X-band mini-radar in Rome. DISDROMETERs were also deployed: 4 Parsivel optical disdrometers in Rome (at Sapienza, CNR-ISAC and CNR-INSEAN); 1 2D-video disdrometer in Rome; 3 Parsivels optical disdrometer respectively in L'Aquila (Abnazo), Avezzano (Abruzzo) and Pescara (Abnazo). Other INSTRUMENTS were available: 1 K-band vertically-pointing micro rain-radar (MRR), 2 Pludix X-band disdrometers, 1 VLF lightning sensor, 1 microwave radiometer at 23-31 GHz in Rome (at Sapienza); the raingauge network with more than 200 stations in Central Italy. Three overpasses in CI were also performed by the Falcon 20 aircraft equipped with the 950Hz cloud radar RASTA Analysis of the SOP1.1 main events in CI will be described by focusing on the raindrop size distribution statistics and its geographical variability. Intercomparison of rainfall estimates from disdrometers, raingauges and radars will be illustrated with the aim to provide a quality-controlled and physically consistent rainfall dataset for meteorological modeling validation and assimilation purposes.

Gatlin, Patrick↗

DOE OSTI2019

Path Forward for Groundwater Compliance Strategy at the Tuba City, Arizona, Disposal Site - 19581

The Tuba City, Arizona, Disposal Site is located in the Navajo Nation and near the Hopi Reservation. A uranium mill operated at the site from 1956 to 1966. During the operational period, mill tailings were slurried to an unlined impoundment. Excess slurry water was transferred to unlined evaporation ponds. Groundwater contamination resulting from the infiltration of fluids in the mill tailings impoundment and evaporation ponds was characterized in the 1990's. The site's Groundwater Compliance Action Plan was prepared in 1999, and a groundwater extraction and treatment system was constructed in 2002. Issues with aquifer productivity and treatment plant reliability led to the suspension of operations in 2014. The limitations of the remediation system prompted a realization that the site conceptual model should be reevaluated. An integrated study to better understand the geochemical and hydrologic factors affecting contaminant transport, to support the development of a new groundwater compliance strategy, was initiated in 2017 and is ongoing. In addition to the groundwater science components, the study included the evaluation of enhanced evaporation methods. The integrated evaluation will lead to refinement of the site groundwater flow model and development of a contaminant transport model and subsequent development of remedial alternatives. Remedial alternatives will be evaluated to determine a new groundwater compliance strategy. The objectives of geochemical testing were to confirm and quantify geochemical reactions controlling uranium fate and transport. These reactions are important because they control the distribution of uranium on the solid phase; potential for release from the solid phase; mobility of uranium in the water phase; and potential for uranium redistribution onto the currently uncontaminated solid phase. A key outcome is the change in understanding of the mass of uranium in the subsurface that is potentially soluble. These results contradict the previous basis for remediation: that uranium was almost exclusively present in soluble form, within the boundaries of the contaminant plume. Testing showed that uranium sorption downgradient from the plume was measurable but relatively minimal. The movement of other mill-related constituents (nitrate, sulfate, alkalinity) results in the dissolution of naturally occurring uranium and a higher than background concentration of uranium in groundwater. These constituents are not subject to sorption, and their downgradient concentrations are reduced only by diffusion and dispersion. The geochemical testing provides conceptual and quantitative information on potential plume migration. While the testing revealed the potential availability of uranium contaminant sources, the aquifer buffering capacity, pH, and presence of oxygen in groundwater may, individually or in combination, be controlling factors for plume movement. Evaluation of evaporative treatment alternatives was undertaken to determine one or more sustainable and efficient methods capable of treating 151 liters per minute (L/min) (40 gallons per minute), the annual average flow rate. In addition to establishing the baseline capacity for evaporation using the site's existing pond, prospective methods of enhanced evaporation included preheating water before inflow to the evaporation pond, vertical circulation in the pond, dye addition, and Wind-Aided Intensified Evaporation. Consideration of a 151 L/min evaporative treatment arose from previous analysis of extraction well production rates and contaminant mass removal, which indicated that about 80% contaminant removal, relative to full-scale operation of the site's groundwater treatment plant, could be achieved with a smaller capacity system. The lower-flow evaporative option also represented a potentially more sustainable treatment system in comparison to restarting or reconfiguring the groundwater treatment plant. Aquifer pumping tests were designed to develop or improve estimates of hydraulic properties such as transmissivity, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, storativity, and storage coefficient. Testing involved pumping from one well at a constant flow rate for up to 5 days while monitoring groundwater drawdown in the pumping well and five surrounding wells and then shutting down the pumping well to observe groundwater recovery. The aquifer pumping test results provide insight regarding the hydraulics of the saturated zone. The saturated zone is in a low-conductivity formation with preferential flow in the horizontal direction. The aquifer exhibits low vertical conductance. The use of AQTESOLV software indicates that the saturated zone is a layered system due to the cross-bedded sand-grain orientation within the Navajo Sandstone. These indicators of limited vertical flow provide a potential justification for the observed depth of the contaminant plume of 15-46 meters (50-150 feet) below ground surface). Given the relatively low vertical conductance, groundwater extraction should be focused on the upper portions of the saturated zone. Aquifer response testing provided an improved understanding of aquifer characteristics. However, the primary objective, to identify optimal groundwater extraction strategies, has not been fully addressed. A list of path forward activities for hydrologic analyses was developed, with an overarching objective of providing input parameters for groundwater flow and contaminant transport modeling. Defensible predictions of contaminant transport, through modeling, are critical to the development of a new site groundwater compliance strategy. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2016

Modeling the Effect of Evaporative Flux and Colloidal Aggregation on Crud Deposition

During the last few years lot of research has been conducted to investigate and predict the Crud deposition in PWRs. One of the common findings of various experimental and computational studies is that thickness or amount of crud deposits is directly related to evaporative flux maps. Evaporation driven deposition profile on the surfaces takes different forms, i.e. from ring to disk shapes during initial stages and in the form of porous to impervious continuous layers covering the hot fuel surface at the later stages. The amount and thickness of these deposits although are directly related to evaporative flux, the relationship is much complex and can be dependent upon several other factors. A popular problem relating evaporative flux to particulate deposition has been well studied in the form of drying of sessile colloidal drops. It was proposed that, this phenomenon is due to a geometrical constraint: the free surface, constrained by a pinned contact line squeezes the fluid outwards to compensate for evaporative losses and thereby transporting particles to the contact line. Later on a quantitative relationship between evaporative flux and deposition rate was proposed and validated by the same group, which showed power-law relationship. Deposition studies conducted with controlled concentration of particles with subcooled nucleate boiling also showed a power-law relationship rather than a simpler linear relationship whereas physics of evaporation would tend to concentrate particles at linear rate. In a typical subcooled nucleate boiling system, bubble growth and departure time is of the order 1-2 ms, measured experimentally. Diffusion time constant for dilute spherical metallic colloids such as crud particulates, generally present as particulate in process piping, range from 0.0025-2.5 sec in water for a size range 0.1-1.0 μm. Colloidal behavioral characteristics during the growth of bubbles can be computed with escape time constant at collision, which is dependent on effective Hamaker constant. For minimum effective Hamaker constant of Hematite is -2.5 kT and diffusion time constant τ = 0.0025 sec, escape time constant is computed as Kramer rule, τexp[A/kT] magnitude is 0.03 sec or 30 ms. This clearly indicates that evaporation will cause particles to come together and they cannot escape at a fast enough rate which would lead them to form agglomerates. Therefore both effects of evaporative flux in conjunction with the agglomeration kinetics must be considered for modeling the crud deposition if the evaporative flux is known. In this paper, we propose a phenomenological model of colloidal transport and aggregation with evaporative flux. The dynamic of particles interactions while drying of sessile colloidal drops is developed by coupling general transport equation with Smoluchowshki Coagulation equation. Crud deposition on the nuclear fuel has been a serious problem with severe consequences in nuclear power plants. In several studies it has been consistently reported that crud deposition is directly related to evaporative flux on the nuclear fuel surfaces. However, it has not been established how to quantify the deposition rates of crud type particulates if the evaporative flux is known. This complex multiphysics problem is similar to coffee-ring effect, where the governing physics is understood more clearly. In this work, a simplified geometry is used to model the effects of evaporative flux acting at a boundary on the colloidal concentration. The effect of this condition on change in concentration is shown numerically. Further, agglomeration is suspected to play a significant role in high evaporative flux such as bubble nucleation. The coagulation kinetics is modeled using uniform particle distribution and the effective total concentration of colloids including original particles and agglomerates is studied. Once this model is validated with a simple separate effect experiments, it can be integrated to large scale PWR models of evaluating evaporative flux and chemistry models developed by Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI). (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Partnership for Edge Physics Simulation

A major goal of our participation in the Edge Physics Simulation project has been to contribute to the understanding of the self-organization of tokamak turbulence fluctuations resulting in the formation of a staircase structure in the ion temperature. A second important goal is to demonstrate how small scale turbulence in plasmas self-organizes with dynamically driven quasi-stationary flow shear. These goals have been accomplished through the analyses of the statistical properties of XGC1 flux driven Gyrokinetic electrostatic ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence simulation data in which neutrals are included. The ITG turbulence data, and in particular fluctuation data, were obtained from a massively parallel flux-driven gyrokinetic full-f particle-in-cell simulation of a DIII-D like equilibrium. Below some the findings are summarized. It was observed that the emergence of staircase structure is related to the variations in the normalized temperature gradient length (R/LT) and the poloidal flow shear. Average turbulence intensity is found to be large in the vicinity of minima in R/LTi, where ITG growth is expected to be lower. The distributions of the occurrences of potential fluctuation are found to be Gaussian away from the staircase-step locations, but they are found to be non-Gaussian in the vicinity of staircase-step locations. The results of analytically derived expressions for the distribution of the occurrences of turbulence intensity and intensity flux were compared with the corresponding quantities computed using XGC1 simulation data and good agreement is found. The derived expressions predicts inward and outward propagation of turbulence intensity flux in an intermittent fashion. The outward propagation of turbulence intensity flux occurs at staircase-step locations and is related to the change in poloidal flow velocity shear and to the change in the ion temperature gradient. The standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis for turbulence quantities were computed and found to be large in the vicinity of the staircase-step structures. Large values of skewness and kurtosis can be explained by a temporary opening and closing of the structure which allows turbulence intensity events to propagate. The staircase patterns may reduce the ion heat transport and a manipulation of these patterns may be used to optimize heat transport in tokamaks. An additional objective of the research in support of the Edge Physics Simulation initiative has been to improve the understanding of scrape-off layer thermal transport. In planning experiments and designing future tokamaks, it is important to understand the physical effects that contribute to divertor heat-load fluxes. The research accomplished will contribute to developing new models for the scrape-off layer region. The XGC0 code was used to compute the heat fluxes and the heat-load width in the outer divertor plates of C-Mod and DIII-D tokamaks. It was observed that the width of the XGC0 neoclassical heat-load was approximately inversely proportional to the total plasma current. Anomalous transport in the H-mode pedestal region of five Alcator C-Mod discharges, representing a collisionality scan, was analyzed. The understanding of anomalous transport in the pedestal region is important for the development of a comprehensive model for the H-mode pedestal slope. It was found that the electron thermal anomalous diffusivities at the pedestal top increase with the electron collisionality. This dependence can point to the DRIBM as the modes that drive the anomalous transport in the plasma edge of highly collisional discharges. The effects of plasma shaping on the H-mode pedestal structure was also investigated. The differences in the predicted H-mode pedestal width and height for the DIII-D discharges with different elongation and triangularities were discussed. For the discharges with higher elongation, it was found that the gradients of the plasma profiles in the H-mode pedestal reach semi-steady states. In these simulations, the pedestal slowly continued to evolve to higher pedestal pressures and bootstrap currents until the peeling ballooning stability conditions were satisfied. The discharges with lower elongation do not reach the semi-steady state, and ELM crashes were triggered at earlier times. The plasma elongation was found to have a stronger stabilizing effect than the plasma triangularity. For the discharges with lower elongation and lower triangularity, the ELM frequency was large, and the H-mode pedestal evolves rapidly. It was found that the temperature of neutrals in the scrape-off-layer region can affect the dynamics of the H-mode pedestal buildup. However, the final pedestal profiles were nearly independent of the neutral temperature. The elongation and triangularity affected the pedestal widths of plasma density and electron temperature profiles differently. This study illustrated a new mechanism for controlling the pedestal bootstrap current and the pedestal stability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

WE-A-16A-01: International Medical Physics Symposium: Increasing Access to Medical Physics Education/Training and Research Excellence

In response to a world in which cancer is a growing global health challenge, there is now a greater need for US Medical Physicists and other Radiation Oncology professionals across institutions to work together and be more globally engaged in the fight against cancer. There are currently many opportunities for Medical Physicists to contribute to alleviating this pressing need, especially in helping enhance access to Medical Physics Education/training and Research Excellence across international boundaries, particularly for low and middle-income countries (LMIC), which suffer from a drastic shortage of accessible knowledge and quality training programs in radiotherapy. Many Medical Physicists are not aware of the range of opportunities that even with small effort could have a high impact. Faculty at the two CAMPEP-accredited Medical Physics Programs in New England: the University of Massachusetts Lowell and Harvard Medical School have developed a growing alliance to increase Access to Medical Physics Education/training and Research Excellence (AMPERE), and facilitate greater active involvement of U.S. Medical Physicists in helping the global fight against cancer and cancer disparities. In this symposium, AMPERE Alliance members and partners from Europe and Africa will present and discuss the growing global cancer challenge, the dearth of knowledge, research, and other barriers to providing life-saving radiotherapy in LMIC, mechanisms for meeting these challenges, the different opportunities for participation by Medical Physicists, including students and residents, and how participation can be facilitated to increase AMPERE for global health. Learning Objectives: To learn about the growing global cancer challenge, areas of greatest need and limitations to accessing knowledge and quality radiotherapy training programs, especially in LMIC; To learn about the range of opportunities for Medical Physicists, including students and residents, to work together in global health to help increase AMPERE and alleviate the growing global burden of cancer; To present and discuss a new model for harmonizing Medical Physics Training across countries and how this model (UMass and Heidelberg) could be extended to LMIC in collaboration with the IAEA; To highlight a new platform and program for facilitating contributions by Medical Physicists to increase AMPERE towards the elimination of global cancer disparities. Challenges in Cancer Control in Africa Twalib A. Ngoma, MD, Professor, Executive Director, Ocean Road Cancer Institute, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania Cancer care in Africa is beset by lack of attention, political will, cancer registries, cancer plans, human resources, financial resources and treatment facilities.. As a result of this, cancer patients in Africa are far more likely to die of their disease than those in developed countries. According to data from the WHO 750,000 new cancer cases occur in Africa every year and this number is predicted to rise by 70% by 2020. To make matters worse, an estimated 75% of cancer patients in Africa have advanced or incurable cancers at diagnosis making palliative care the most realistic approach to their management. Furthermore, Cancer prevention is nearly nonexistent, cancer detection is rare and treatment usually comes too late and is inefficient. The overall mortality-to-incidence ratio for men with cancer in the Africa is 0.75 compared with 0.54 in the developed world while the ratios for women in Africa, is 0.65 compared with 0.45 for women in the developed world. There is also limited access to radiotherapy. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whilst developed countries usually have one radiotherapy machine per 250,000 people, most African nations have only one machine per ten million people. The above numbers are alarming and speak for themselves. The only solution to improve this alarming situation is to address the major challenges which African countries face in provision of cancer services which include but not limited to lack of cancer registries, lack of funding, lack of human resources, lack of radiotherapy machines, lack of cancer drugs and lack of accessible and affordable cancer screening, early diagnosis, treatment or palliative care services. Since there are considerable differences among African countries, in my presentation I will share with the audience how we address cancer control challenges in Tanzania in general and specifically in radiation oncology. The African continent cancer plan 2013 2017 Folakemi Odedina, PhD, Professor and Director of Health Disparities, UF Health Cancer Center, University of Florida The burden of cancer is rising in Africa, in addition to current heavy burden of communicable, and other non-cancer related non—communicable diseases. Conquering cancer in Africa will require a comprehensive collaborative approach with cancer clinicians, scientists, patients, advocates, policy makers and community leaders working hand-in-hand at the local, state, national, and continent levels with the primary mission: To reduce the number of deaths from cancer and improve the quality of life of cancer patients, survivors and caregivers. Unfortunately, less than 40% of African countries have a credible cancer control policy and program. The African Organization for Research and Training in Cancer (AORTIC) decided to create an African Cancer Plan to provide cost-effective strategies that can be employed throughout the continent to fight cancer. Based on the African proverb that “It takes a village to raise a child”, the Cancer Plan provides specific strategies that can be used by individuals, employers, organizations and policy-makers to fight cancer. In addition, we have provided overarching strategies to address cancer in Africa and targeted 5-year plan for prostate, breast, cervix, lung and liver cancers. In developing this Cancer Plan, our primary goal is to decrease cancer incidence and mortality in Africa. This goal can only be achieved by stakeholders and dedicated individuals to lead and implement the strategies outlined in this plan. If you are interested in partnering with AORTIC to reduce the burden of cancer in Africa, please send an email to info@aortic-africa.org. Synergies in research and clinical care through international collaboration Thomas Bortfeld and David Gierga, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, MA Medical Physics relies on high technology that is not distributed equally. The whole spectrum of Medical Physics technologies is not available at every hospital or research institute, and not even in every high income country. One example is heavy ion therapy equipment which is currently only available in Japan, Germany and Italy. There is also a large global variation in terms of research infrastructure and focus. A student of Medical physics cannot gain broad experience, certainly not hands-on experience, by staying at one place only. While it is debatable what a good trade-off between breadth and depth in Medical Physics education is, it is generally agreed upon that some breadth is necessary. Researchers in Medical Physics have to cross borders if they need specific technologies for their projects. Therefore it is self-evident that international programs in Medical Physics education and research make sense. Yet, very few programs of this type exist. In this presentation we will report on our own experience of pursuing an international career in Medical Physics, with international student programs, and with the international exchange of researchers. We will present new or planned opportunities such as the medical beamline at CERN in Geneva. We will also report on the synergies in clinical care through international collaborations between partners in high and low income countries. One example is the partnership of the MGH/Harvard Medical School community with the oncology community and government of Botswana to form the BOTSOGO (BOTSwana Oncology Global Outreach) initiative. This collaborative effort in oncology care was spurred by existing relationships in HIV/AIDS research and care delivery developed within the Botswana-Harvard AIDS Institute Partnership (BHP). The initial efforts of the BOTSOGO initiative have been organized as follows: 1) on-site visits to share expertise in clinical cancer care for capacity building purposes (e.g. cervical brachytherapy), 2) developing a forum for multi-disciplinary case discussions and education and 3) relationship building with local stakeholders for long-term sustainability and growth. An international system for the certification of medical physicists Raymond K. Wu, Chairman, IOMP Professional Relations Committee; Chairman, AAPM Exchange Scientist Program Subcommittee An international system for the certification of medical physicists is an important issue. The International Organization for Medical Physicists (IOMP) has in collaboration with a number of member countries established the International Medical Physics Certification Board (IMPCB) to address this issue, and to provide a mechanism to mark the milestone for the professional development of clinical medical physicists. Raymond Wu, PhD, is the CEO of IMPCB and the Chairman of the IOMP Professional Relations Committee. He is the invited speaker recommended by IOMP to give a talk on this important subject. He will give the latest update of the work of IMPCB, its near term goals, and pathways to the goals. He will also discuss the importance of such an International System of certification in the training/education of next generation Medical Physicists, including those in low and middle income countries (LMIC) where such training is crucial in the fight against cancer. Learning Objectives: Understand the certification program as described in the IOMP Policy Statements. Understand the plan of the IMPCB to establish the accreditation process of national certification programs. Understand the goals of this international collaborative effort and the potential impacts to the quality of clinical medical physics practice. Medical Physics Education Across Continents: The UMass Lowell and Heidelberg University Joint Coordination Effort Erno Sajo, Director of Medical Physics, University of Massachusetts at Lowell Medical Physics education has unique flavors across institutions within the US and shows significant differences across continents. In the latter, even the definition of Medical Physics may differ. Not only is there a difference in topical coverage, but often what is considered a cohesive topic in one institution, and taught as a single course, is fragmented among several other courses in the other institution due to a different philosophy. Because of the regulatory and certification requirements, these differences impact the mobility of medical physicists across continents. As a result, physicists who wish to practice in the US or Canada but have completed their education elsewhere often find that they have to take remedial courses or even obtain a new degree in Medical Physics despite the fact that they already have one. Outreach to developing countries, therefore, is even more difficult. The University of Massachusetts Lowell and Heidelberg University recently completed a joint coordination effort, in which they identified topics that are common versus complementary in their medical physics curricula. A student exchange program was developed that permits students to take any of the common topics at the other institution while taking complementary courses as electives, which count towards their degree requirements at their home institution. Thesis research is also mutually accepted. When properly documented, in this way CAMPEP recommendations can be met across the institutions. Therefore, students participating in this program satisfy both the American Board of Radiology (ABR) requirements and the European regulatory requirements. The framework on which this collaboration rests and the cross-comparison methods developed therein may be implemented in other exchange programs and thus a similar approach can be adopted in outreach programs with developing countries. IAEA PACT Program and opportunities for support and collaboration Susan Morgan, Program Coordinator, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria In response to the developing world's cancer crisis, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) established the Program of Action for Cancer Therapy (PACT) in 2004 to fully realize the public health impact obtained through global partnerships in cancer control and technology transfer in radiation medicine. PACT's vision strives for global partnerships to confront the cancer crisis in developing countries, notably with our sister United Nations agency, the World Health Organization (WHO), and our Joint Programme on Cancer Control established in 2009. The IAEA, through PACT, the WHO, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and other cancer-related organizations work together to make a coordinated global response in supporting low and middle income (LMI) IAEA Member States in the implementation of comprehensive national cancer control programmes. PACT's goals are: To build global partnerships of cancer-related organizations committed to addressing the challenge of cancer in LMI Member States in all its aspects; To mobilize resources from charitable trusts, foundations, and others in public and private sectors sources to assist LMI Member States to develop and implement their radiation medicine capacities within a national cancer control programme (NCCP); and, To ensure the effective and sustainable transfer of radiation medicine technologies or knowledge to all LMI Member States where unmet needs exist. PACT work focuses on: imPACT: Assessing Cancer Burden PMDS: Developing Global Partnerships VUCCnet: Promoting Cancer Control Training AGaRT: Making Radiotherapy Accessible Facilitating increased participation and professional development of Medical Physicists and other Radiation Oncology professionals in global health Wilfred Ngwa, Harvard Medical School, University of Massachusetts Lowell, MA The 2014 World Health Organization (WHO) Cancer report highlights an alarming increase in the global burden of cancer. It also highlights what it terms “the cancer divide”, or disparities, evinced by a substantially higher cancer burden in low and middle income countries (LMIC) in Asia, Central/South America and Africa. The WHO even predicts a potential African cancer epidemic by 2020 if significant progress is not made in global cancer control efforts. Evidence that collaborative global health approaches have led to major progress in controlling infectious diseases including in LMIC suggests that similar approaches will be useful for non-communicable diseases like cancer. In consonance with this, leaders in cancer policy from the USA and 14 economically diverse countries recently concluded that successful campaigns to control cancers with existing methods and to improve current strategies will increasingly depend onconcerted multinational collaborations (Sci Transl Med 5, p. 175, 2013). Hence there is growing urgency for increasing collaborative global cancer Care Research and Education (CaRE), as well as support for greater effectiveness of already existing initiatives involving partners from different nations, diverse economic and cultural backgrounds. The good news is that there is a growing awareness of the importance of global health and growing interest including amongst Medical Physicists and other Radiation oncology (RadOnc) professionals to participate in global health. However, many are unaware of currently existing opportunities for participation that even with small effort could have a high impact. Over 50% of cancer patients in the developed world depend on RadOnc professionals for their treatment, and hence participation of RadOnc professionals in global health efforts in the global fight against cancer is crucial. It is also important that the next generation of RadOnc professionals (students, and residents) be trained with a global perspective, to be global health leaders in cancer CaRE. This presentation will highlight a novel platform for enhancing participation and professional development of Medical Physicists and other RadOnc professionals in global health. Ways in which this platform can facilitate contributions by Medical Physicists and other RadOnc Professionals, students and residents in global health towards the elimination of global cancer disparities will be discussed. This will be followed by a panel discussion by some of the pioneers/leaders in collaborative global cancer CaRE on the growing cancer burden, challenges and opportunities for greater active involvement and professional development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2000

Stereo Imaging Velocimetry of Mixing Driven by Buoyancy Induced Flow Fields

Mixing of two fluids generated by steady and particularly g-jitter acceleration is fundamental towards the understanding of transport phenomena in a microgravity environment. We propose to carry out flight and ground-based experiments to quantify flow fields due to g-jitter type of accelerations using Stereo Imaging Velocimetry (SIV), and measure the concentration field using laser fluorescence. The understanding of the effects of g-jitter on transport phenomena is of great practical interest to the microgravity community and impacts the design of experiments for the Space Shuttle as well as the International Space Station. The aim of our proposed research is to provide quantitative data to the community on the effects of g-jitter on flow fields due to mixing induced by buoyancy forces. The fundamental phenomenon of mixing occurs in a broad range of materials processing encompassing the growth of opto-electronic materials and semiconductors, (by directional freezing and physical vapor transport), to solution and protein crystal growth. In materials processing of these systems, crystal homogeneity, which is affected by the solutal field distribution, is one of the major issues. The understanding of fluid mixing driven by buoyancy forces, besides its importance as a topic in fundamental science, can contribute towards the understanding of how solutal fields behave under various body forces. The body forces of interest are steady acceleration and g-jitter acceleration as in a Space Shuttle environment or the International Space Station. Since control of the body force is important, the flight experiment will be carried out on a tunable microgravity vibration isolation mount, which will permit us to precisely input the desired forcing function to simulate a range of body forces. To that end, we propose to design a flight experiment that can only be carried out under microgravity conditions to fully exploit the effects of various body forces on fluid mixing. Recent flight experiments, by the P.I. through collaboration with the Canadian Space Agency (STS-85, August 1997), aimed at determining the stability of the interface between two miscible liquids inside an enclosure show that a long liquid column (5 cm) under microgravity isolation conditions can be stable, i.e. the interface remains sharp and vertical over a short time scale; thus transport occurs by molecular mass diffusion. On the other hand, when the two liquids were excited from a controlled vibration source (Microgravity Vibration Isolation Mount) two to four mode large amplitude quasi-stationary waves were observed. The data was limited to CCD recording of the dynamics of the interface between the two fluids. We propose to carry out flight experiments to quantify the dynamics of the flow field using Stereo Imaging Velocimetry and measure the concentration field using laser fluorescence. The results will serve as a basis to understand effects of g-jitter on transport phenomena, in this case mass diffusion. As the measurement of the kinematics of the flow field will shed light on the instability mechanism. The research will allow measurement of the flow field in microgravity environment to prove two hypotheses: (1) Maxwell's hypothesis: finite convection always exists in diffusing systems, and (2) Quasi-stationary waves inside a bounded enclosure in a microgravity environment is generated by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability; resonance of the interface which produces incipient mixing is due to Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The first hypothesis can be used as a benchmark experiment to illustrate diffusive mixing. The second hypothesis will lead to the understanding of g-jitter effects on buoyancy driven flow fields which occur in many situations involving materials processing, and other basic fluid physics phenomena. In addition, the second hypothesis will also provide insight in how Rayleigh-Taylor and Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities propagate concentration fronts during mixing. Measurement of the flow field using SIV is important because it is the flow field which causes instability at the interface between the two fluids. Mixing driven by buoyancy induced flow fields will be addressed both experimentally and computationally. The experimental effort will address the kinematics of mixing: stretching, transport and chaos. Quantification of the mechanisms of mixing will consists of measuring the flow field using the SIV system at Glenn and capturing the dynamics of the interface, to measure mass transport, using a CCD camera. These experiments will be carried out within the framework of Earth's gravity and g-jitter microgravity acceleration as in a Space Shuttle environment or the International Space Station. The g-jitter will be induced and controlled using a tunable vibration isolation platform to isolate against vibration as well as input periodic and random vibration to the system. The parametric range of the microgravity experiment will be extended from the experiments on STS-85 to investigate higher mode quasi-stationary waves (8 to 12), as well as resonance regions which leads to chaos and turbulence. Ground-based experiments will focus on effects of vibration on stably stratified fluid layers in order to scale for possible scenarios in a microgravity environment. These vibrations will be subjected perpendicular to the concentration field on the ground since the parallel case can only be carried out in a microgravity environment. The concept of dynamical similarity will be applied to tune the experiments as closely as possible to a Space Shuttle environment or the International Space Station. The computational effort will take advantage of the Computational Laboratory at Glenn to corroborate the experimental findings with predictions of the dynamics of the flow field using the codes FLUENT (finite difference based) and FIDAP (finite element based). We will investigate two important cases, single-fluid model to address dilute systems with negligible jump in viscosity and the more general two-fluid model which accounts for finite jump in viscosity. Apart from its microgravity relevance, this experiment is well suited to study dynamics in nonlinear systems.

Duval, W. M. B.↗

DOE OSTI2024

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Grassland Bird Distribution and Raptor Flight Patterns in the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones of the Texas Panhandle [Thesis]

The consistent wind resource in the Great Plains of North America has encouraged the development of wind energy facilities across this region. In the Texas Panhandle, a high quality wind resource is only one factor that has led to the expansion of wind energy development. Other factors include federal tax incentives and the availability of subsidies. Moreover, the State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), mandating production of 10,000 mega-watts of renewable energy in the state by 2025, has contributed to an amicable regulatory and permitting environment (State Energy Conservation Office 2010). Considering the current rate of development, the RPS will be met in coming years (American Wind Energy Association 2011) and the rate of development is likely to continue. To meet increased energy demands in the face of a chronically constrained transmission grid, Texas has developed a comprehensive plan that organizes and prioritizes new transmission systems in high quality wind resource areas called Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ). The CREZ plan provides developers a solution to transmission constraints and unlocks large areas of undeveloped wind resource areas. In the northern Texas panhandle, there are two CREZs that are classified Class 3 wind (Class 5 is the highest) and range from 862,725 to 1,772,328 ha in size (Public Utility Commission of Texas 2008). Grassland bird populations have declined more than any other bird group in North America (Peterjohn and Sauer 1999, Sauer et al. 2004). Loss of grassland habitat from agricultural development has been the greatest contributor to the decline of grassland bird populations, but development of non-renewable (i.e., oil, coal, and gas) and renewable energy (i.e., wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal) sources have contributed to the decline as well (Pimentel et al. 2002, Maybe and Paul 2007). The effects of wind energy development on declining grassland bird populations has become an area of extensive research, as we attempt to understand and minimize potential impacts of a growing energy sector on declining bird populations. Based on data from post-construction fatality surveys, two grassland bird groups have been the specific focus of research, passerines (songbird guild) and raptors (birds of prey). The effects of wind energy development on these two groups of birds, both of conservation concern, have been examined over the last decade. The primary focus of this research has been on mortality resulting from collision with wind turbines (Kuvlesky et al. 2007). Most studies just quantify post-construction fatality levels (e.g., Erickson et al. 2002) while very few studies provide a comparison of bird populations prior to development through a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) study design. Before-After-Control-Impact studies provide powerful evidence of avian/wind energy relationships (Anderson et al. 1999). Despite repeated urgency on conducting these types of studies (Anderson et al. 1999, Madders and Whitfield 2006, Kuvelsky et al. 2007), few have been conducted in North America. Although several European researchers (Larsson 1994, de Lucas et al. 2007) have used BACI designs to examine whether wind facilities modified raptor behavior, there is a scarcity of BACI data relating to North America grassland ecosystems that examine avian-wind energy relationships. There are less than a handful of studies in the entire United States, let alone the southern short grass prairie ecosystem, that incorporate preconstruction data to form the baseline for post-construction impact estimates (Johnson et al. 2000, Erickson et al. 2002). Although declines in grassland bird populations are well-documented (Peterjohn and Sauer 1999, Sauer et al. 2004), the causal mechanisms affecting the decline of grassland birds with increasing wind energy development in the southern short grass prairie are not well-understood (Kuvlesky et al. 2007, Maybe and Paul 2007). Several factors may potentially affect the bird population when wind turbines are constructed in areas with high bird densities (de Lucas et al. 2007). Habitat fragmentation, noise from turbines, physical movement of turbine blades, and increased vehicle traffic have been suggested as causes of decreased density of nesting grassland birds in Minnesota (Leddy et al. 1999), Oklahoma (O’Connell and Piorkowski 2006), and South Dakota (Shaffer and Johnson 2008). Similarly, constructing turbines in areas where bird flight patterns place them at similar heights of turbine blades increases the potential for bird collisions (Johnson et al. 2000, Hoover 2002). Raptor fatalities have been associated with topographic features such as ridges, saddles and rims where birds use updrafts from prevailing winds (Erickson et al. 2000, Johnson et al. 2000, Barrios and Rodriquez 2004, Hoover and Morrison 2005). Thus, wind energy development can result in indirect (e.g., habitat avoidance, decreased nest success) and direct (e.g., collision fatalities) impacts to bird populations (Anderson et al. 1999). Directly quantifying the level of potential impacts (e.g., estimated fatalities/mega-watthour) from wind energy development is beyond the scope of this study. Instead, I aim to quantify density, occupancy and flight behavior for the two bird groups mentioned earlier: obligate grassland songbirds and raptors, respectively, predict where impacts may occur, and provide management recommendations to minimize potential impacts. The United States Department of Energy (DOE), through the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Allocation, contracted Texas Tech University to investigate grassland bird patterns of occurrence in the anticipated CREZ in support of DOE’s 20% Wind Energy by 2030 initiative. In cooperation with Iberdrola Renewables, Inc., studies initiated by Wulff (2010) at Texas Tech University were continued at an area proposed for wind energy development and a separate reference site unassociated with wind energy development. I focused on four primary objectives and this thesis is accordingly organized in four separate chapters that address grassland bird density, grassland bird occupancy, raptor flight patterns, and finally I summarize species diversity and composition. The following chapters use formatting from the Journal of Wildlife Management guidelines (Block et al. 2011) with modifications as required by the Texas Tech University Graduate School. 1) I estimate pre-construction bird density patterns using methods that adjust for imperfect detection. I used a distance sampling protocol that effectively accounts for incomplete detection in the field where birds are present but not detected (Buckland et al. 2001). I improved density estimates with hierarchical distance sampling models, a modeling technique that effectively incorporates the detection process with environmental covariates that further influence bird density (Royle et al. 2004, Royle and Dorazio 2008). Covariates included road density and current oil and gas infrastructure to determine the relationship between existing energy development and bird density patterns. Further, I used remote sensing techniques and vegetation field data to investigate how landcover characteristics influenced bird density patterns. I focused species-specific analyses on obligate grassland birds with >70 detections per season namely grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum) and horned lark (Eremophila alpestris). Chapter II focuses on hierarchical models that model and describe relationships between grassland bird density and anthropogenic and landscape features. 2) A large number of bird detections (>70) are needed to estimate density using distance sampling and collection of such quantity are often not feasible, particularly for cryptic species or species that naturally occur at low densities (Buckland et al. 2001). Occupancy models operate with far fewer data and are often used as a surrogate for bird abundance when there are fewer detections (MacKenzie and Nichols 2004). I used occupancy models that allow for the possibility of imperfect detection and species abundance to improve estimates of occurrence probability (Royal 2004). I focused species-specific analyses on grassland birds with few detections: Cassin’s sparrow (Peucaea cassinii), eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), and upland sandpiper (Bartramia longicauda). Chapter III uses a multi-season dynamic site occupancy model that incorporates bird abundance to better estimate occurrence probability. 3) When I considered the topographic relief of the study sites, the proposed design of the wind facility and its location within the central U.S. migratory corridor, I expanded the study to investigate raptor abundance and flight behavior (Hoover 2002, Miller 2008). I developed a new survey technique that improved the accuracy of raptor flight height estimates and compared seasonal counts and flight heights at the plateau rim and areas further inland. I used counts and flight behaviors to calculate species-specific collision risk indices for raptors based on topographic features. I focused species-specific analyses on raptors with the highest counts: American kestrel (Falco sparverius), northern harrier (Circus cyaneus), red-tailed hawk (Buteo jamaicensis), Swainson’s hawk (Buteo swainsoni), and turkey vulture (Cathartes aura). Chapter IV describes patterns of seasonal raptor abundance and flight behavior and how topography modulates collision risk with proposed wind energy turbines. 4) Finally, for completeness, in Chapter V I summarize morning point count data for all species and provide estimates of relative composition and species diversity with the Shannon-Wiener Diversity Index (Shannon and Weaver 1949).

17 WIND ENERGY↗