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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Synthetic-source Injection Across the Full Survey Using Balrog

Synthetic source injection (SSI), the insertion of sources into pixel-level on-sky images, is a powerful method for characterizing object detection and measurement in wide-field, astronomical imaging surveys. Within the Dark Energy Survey (DES), SSI plays a critical role in characterizing all necessary algorithms used in converting images to catalogs, and in deriving quantities needed for the cosmology analysis, such as object detection rates, galaxy redshift estimation, galaxy magnification, star-galaxy classification, and photometric performance. We present here a source injection catalog of 146 million injections spanning the entire 5000 deg 2 DES footprint, generated using the Balrog SSI pipeline. Through this SSI sample, we demonstrate that the DES Year 6 (Y6) image processing pipeline provides accurate estimates of the object properties, for both galaxies and stars, at the percent-level, and we highlight specific regimes where the accuracy is reduced. We then show the consistency between SSI and data catalogs, for all galaxy samples developed within the weak lensing and galaxy clustering analyses of DES Y6. The consistency between the two catalogs also extends to their correlations with survey observing properties (seeing, airmass, depth, extinction, etc.). Lastly, we highlight a number of applications of this catalog to the DES Y6 cosmology analysis, such as estimates of the redshift distribution and lens magnification. This dataset is the largest SSI catalog produced at this fidelity and will serve as a key testing ground for exploring the utility of SSI catalogs in upcoming surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Extreme Wind and Waves in U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

The Outer Continental Shelf along the U.S. east coast exhibits abundant wind resources and is now a geographic focus for offshore wind deployments. This analysis derives and presents expected extreme wind and wave conditions for the sixteen lease areas that are currently being developed. Using the homogeneous ERA5 reanalysis dataset it is shown that the fifty-year return period wind speed (U50) at 100 m a.s.l. in the lease areas ranges from 29.2 to 39.7 ms -1 . After applying corrections to account for spectral smoothing and averaging period, the associated pseudo-point U50 estimates are 34 to 46 ms -1 . The derived uncertainty in U50 estimates due to different distributional fitting is smaller than the uncertainty associated with under-sampling of the interannual variability in annual maximum wind speeds. It is shown that, in the northern lease areas, annual maximum wind speeds are generally associated with intense extratropical cyclones rather than cyclones of tropical origin. Extreme wave statistics are also presented and indicate that the 50-year return period maximum wave height may substantially exceed 15 m. From this analysis, there is evidence that annual maximum wind speeds and waves frequently derive from the same cyclone source and often occur within a 6 h time interval.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Contaminant Source Identification from Finite Sensor Data: Perron–Frobenius Operator and Bayesian Inference

Sensors in the built environment ensure safety and comfort by tracking contaminants in the occupied space. In the event of contaminant release, it is important to use the limited sensor data to rapidly and accurately identify the release location of the contaminant. Identification of the release location will enable subsequent remediation as well as evacuation decision-making. In previous work, we used an operator theoretic approach—based on the Perron–Frobenius (PF) operator—to estimate the contaminant concentration distribution in the domain given a finite amount of streaming sensor data. In the current work, the approach is extended to identify the most probable contaminant release location. The release location identification is framed as a Bayesian inference problem. The Bayesian inference approach requires considering multiple release location scenarios, which is done efficiently using the discrete PF operator. The discrete PF operator provides a fast, effective and accurate model for contaminant transport modeling. The utility of our PF-based Bayesian inference methodology is illustrated using single-point release scenarios in both two and three-dimensional cases. The method provides a fast, accurate, and efficient framework for real-time identification of contaminant source location.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Photometric Objects around Cosmic Webs (PAC) Delineated in a Spectroscopic Survey. I. Methods

We provide a method for estimating the projected density distribution ${\bar{n}}_{2}{w}_{p}({r}_{p})$ of photometric objects around spectroscopic objects in a spectroscopic survey. This quantity describes the distribution of photometric sources with certain physical properties (e.g., luminosity, mass, and color) around cosmic webs (PAC) traced by the spectroscopic objects. The method can make full use of current and future deep and wide photometric surveys to explore the formation of galaxies up to medium redshift (z s < 2) 3 with the aid of cosmological spectroscopic surveys that sample only a fairly limited species of objects (e.g., emission line galaxies). As an example, we apply the PAC method to the CMASS spectroscopic and HSC-SSP PDR2 photometric samples to explore the distribution of galaxies for a wide range of stellar masses from 10 9.0 to 10 12.0 M ⊙ around massive galaxies at z s ≈ 0.6. Using the abundance-matching method, we model ${\bar{n}}_{2}{w}_{p}({r}_{p})$ in N-body simulation using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, and we accurately measure the stellar–halo mass relation and stellar mass function for the whole mass range. We can also measure the conditional stellar mass function of satellites for central galaxies of different mass. The PAC method has many potential applications for studying the evolution of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

P-model v1.0: an optimality-based light use efficiency model for simulating ecosystem gross primary production

Terrestrial photosynthesis is the basis for vegetation growth and drives the land carbon cycle. Accurately simulating gross primary production (GPP, ecosystem-level apparent photosynthesis) is key for satellite monitoring and Earth system model predictions under climate change. While robust models exist for describing leaf-level photosynthesis, predictions diverge due to uncertain photosynthetic traits and parameters which vary on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we describe and evaluate a GPP (photosynthesis per unit ground area) model, the P-model, that combines the Farquhar–von Caemmerer–Berry model for C 3 photosynthesis with an optimality principle for the carbon assimilation–transpiration trade-off, and predicts a multi-day average light use efficiency (LUE) for any climate and C 3 vegetation type. The model builds on the theory developed in Prentice et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2017a) and is extended to include low temperature effects on the intrinsic quantum yield and an empirical soil moisture stress factor. The model is forced with site-level data of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) and meteorological data and is evaluated against GPP estimates from a globally distributed network of ecosystem flux measurements. Although the P-model requires relatively few inputs, the R 2 for predicted versus observed GPP based on the full model setup is 0.75 (8 d mean, 126 sites) – similar to comparable satellite-data-driven GPP models but without predefined vegetation-type-specific parameters. The R 2 is reduced to 0.70 when not accounting for the reduction in quantum yield at low temperatures and effects of low soil moisture on LUE. The R 2 for the P-model-predicted LUE is 0.32 (means by site) and 0.48 (means by vegetation type). Applying this model for global-scale simulations yields a total global GPP of 106–122 Pg C yr –1 (mean of 2001–2011), depending on the fAPAR forcing data. The P-model provides a simple but powerful method for predicting – rather than prescribing – light use efficiency and simulating terrestrial photosynthesis across a wide range of conditions. The model is available as an R package (rpmodel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Scatter factor and reliability of aircraft structures

The concept of time to first failure is utilized to perform a parameter study of scatter factors of aircraft structures. The Weibull distribution is used for estimation of characteristic and certifiable lives. Scatter factors for various Weibull-shaped parameters, fleet sizes and level of reliabilities are calculated. It is concluded that the currently used range of scatter factors (2 through 4) is too narrow for the estimation of a safe life and that a safe and economical design for structural materials with shape parameters less than 2 does not seem feasible except for very small fleet sizes and low levels of reliability.

Schueller, G. I.↗

Urban and regional land use analysis: CARETS and Census Cities experiment package

The author has identified the following significant results. A number of likely applications and follow-on analyses are suggested by the census cities evaluation of ERTS-1 and Skylab data. Some of these applications are: (1) estimate water use requirements; (2) define urban expansion; (3) document the pattern of residential development and assess quality of residential environment: (4) project future population densities, and estimate changes in population distribution between censuses; (5) assess environmental impact resulting from gradual as well as catastrophic changes.

Alexander, R.↗

Ground effects on Loran-C signals

In conjunction with the test and evaluation of the position fixing capabilities of the Army Manpack Loran Receiver AN/PSN-6, an extensive series of time difference and signal amplitude measurements were made within a 100 km map grid square encompassing Fort Monmouth, New Jersey. The test location is within the coverage area of the East Coast Loran-C Chain. The data were used to develop a simple smooth-earth model for the test area as well as to estimate the magnitude and distributions of deviations from this model. Local propagation processes associated with topographic features and the grid of overhead wires in the test area are shown to contribute to the deviations from the model.

Pearce, D. C.↗

An investigation of airflow over the aft portions of a variable sweep fighter configuration

An investigation of air flow over the aft portions of a variable sweep fighter aircraft configuration was made. Tests conducted in the unitary plan wind tunnel at Mach number 2.16 included measurements of forces, moments, and local static pressures as well as visual recordings of the air flow. An aerodynamic analytical prediction method was evaluated when used in data comparison at angles of attack of 0, 5, and 15 degrees. The results indicate that in supersonic flow the typical outboard located twin vertical tail arrangement tends to provide a more positive increment in normal-force on the afterbody fuselage and the horizontal tail than a single center-mounted vertical tail of similar planform shape. In addition, the results indicate that a method for aerodynamic analysis of wing-body-tail configurations currently available can provide reasonable estimates of pressure coefficient distributions on configurations in regions of complex supersonic flow. At this time, however, the available analytical method cannot adequately replace experimental wind tunnel tests for determining the supersonic flow environment of a given configuration.

Graves, E. B.↗

Performance analysis of digital FM demodulators for fading channels in the threshold region

The quasi-optimum digital FM demodulators for fading channels reported earlier (1975) reflected the system performance accurately under high signal to noise ratio conditions. In this paper, the prediction of the system performance for low SNR values is considered. A new set of error variance algorithms is developed from the filter algorithm assuming a Gaussian distribution for the state estimation errors and taking the effect of high frequency terms into consideration. Simulation analysis for an FM system with Rician fading channel shows that these algorithms predict the system performance accurately in the threshold region.

Dharamsi, M. T.↗

Communication architecture for large geostationary platforms

Large platforms have been proposed for supporting multipurpose communication payloads to exploit economy of scale, reduce congestion in the geostationary orbit, provide interconnectivity between diverse earth stations, and obtain significant frequency reuse with large multibeam antennas. This paper addresses a specific system design, starting with traffic projections in the next two decades and discussing tradeoffs and design approaches for major components including: antennas, transponders, and switches. Other issues explored are selection of frequency bands, modulation, multiple access, switching methods, and techniques for servicing areas with nonuniform traffic demands. Three-major services are considered: a high-volume trunking system, a direct-to-user system, and a broadcast system for video distribution and similar functions. Estimates of payload weight and d.c. power requirements are presented. Other subjects treated are: considerations of equipment layout for servicing by an orbit transfer vehicle, mechanical stability requirements for the large antennas, and reliability aspects of the large number of transponders employed.

Bond, F. E.↗

Expected characteristics of large dust particles in periodic Comet Halley

Observational evidence is presented for dust particles heavier than 0.01 millionth of a gram expelled from Comet Halley. Dust emitted around 1.5 AU pre-perihelion, the point in orbit where a probe would fly through the comet in 1985, should have contributed to an anomalous tail that could have been observed in 1910. From positions of the trailing boundary of the ordinary dust tail at that time, it is concluded that the production of dust started to increase steeply at 0.7 to 0.8 AU before perihelion. Observations in late January 1836 are used to derive the production of dust vs. time and the the expected number of large-particle impacts on the protective shield of the 1985 flythrough probe. From data on other comets, it is estimated that the size distribution for large particles is likely to vary inversely according to the fourth or slightly higher power of the size.

Sekanina, Z.↗

Statistical analysis of multivariate atmospheric variables

Topics covered include: (1) estimation in discrete multivariate distributions; (2) a procedure to predict cloud cover frequencies in the bivariate case; (3) a program to compute conditional bivariate normal parameters; (4) the transformation of nonnormal multivariate to near-normal; (5) test of fit for the extreme value distribution based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (6) test of fit for continuous distributions based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (7) effect of correlated observations on confidence sets based upon chi-square statistics; and (8) generation of random variates from specified distributions.

Tubbs, J. D.↗

Accelerated life testing effects on CMOS microcircuit characteristics

This report covers the time period from May 1976 to December 1979 and encompasses the three phases of accelerated testing: Phase 1, the 250 C testing; Phase 2, the 200 C testing; and Phase 3, the 125 C testing. The duration of the test in Phase 1 and Phase 2 was sufficient to take the devices into the wear out region. The wear out distributions were used to estimate the activation energy between the 250 C and the 200 C test temperatures. The duration of the 125 C test, 20,000 hours, was not sufficient to bring the test devices into the wear out region; consequently the third data point at 125 C for determining the consistency of activation energy could not be obtained. It was estimated that, for the most complex of the three device types, the activation energy between 200 C and 125 C should be at least as high as that between 250 C and 200 C. The practicality of the use of high temperature for the accelerated life tests from the point of view of durability of equipment was assessed. Guidelines for the development of accelerated life test conditions were proposed. The use of the silicon nitride overcoat to improve the high temperature accelerated life test characteristics of CMOS microcircuits was explored in Phase 4 of this study and is attached as an appendix to this report.

Source record↗

Distorted radio sources in Abell 2255 - Evidence of intergalactic gas 2.5 to 5 megaparsecs from the cluster center

Spectroscopic data are presented for radio galaxies in the A2255 region. The results indicate that the galaxies associated with distorted radio sources 2.5-5 Mpc projected radius from the cluster center are indeed cluster members. This implies the presence of substantial intergalactic gas 10-20 core radii from the cluster center. Reasonable assumptions concerning the gas distribution result in an estimated minimum mass for the A2255 intracluster gas of 4 x 10 to the 14th solar masses.

Hintzen, P.↗

Heat balance statistics derived from four-dimensional assimilations with a global circulation model

The reported investigation was conducted to develop a reliable procedure for obtaining the diabatic and vertical terms required for atmospheric heat balance studies. The method developed employs a four-dimensional assimilation mode in connection with the general circulation model of NASA's Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences. The initial analysis was conducted with data obtained in connection with the 1976 Data Systems Test. On the basis of the results of the investigation, it appears possible to use the model's observationally constrained diagnostics to provide estimates of the global distribution of virtually all of the quantities which are needed to compute the atmosphere's heat and energy balance.

Schubert, S. D.↗