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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Preparation of Nuclear Data Libraries for Web Release [Slides] and Tutorial for Generating Correlated Random Samples and Propagation of Uncertainty [Slides]

The first presentation discuses moving distribution of nuclear data to an online platform which allows ore frequent nuclear data updates, greater ease of acquiring nuclear data, and user flexibility in what nuclear data to download. The second presentation illustrates uncertainties without correlation, uncertainties without correlation with negative samples, uncertainties with correlation, uncertainties with a χ-like constraint, uncertainties with a Σ tot -like constraint, sampling using different distributions, and dealing with negative eigenvalues in a covariance matrix.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluation of computer-aided procedure for detecting surface water

Results from an evaluation of a computer-aided procedure for processing ERTS-1 data to detect and locate surface water are presented. The procedure was evaluated using data from a study area in the vicinity of the Lake Somerville area in Washington County, Texas. The procedure consisted of (1) selecting water training fields, (2) aggregating the training samples together and clustering them into unimodal clusters, (3) computing the mean vector and covariance matrix for each cluster, (4) classifying all of the study area into classes corresponding to the clusters using the maximum likelihood classifier, and (5) thresholding out the nonwater pixels.

Source record↗

Scout trajectory error propagation computer program

Since 1969, flight experience has been used as the basis for predicting Scout orbital accuracy. The data used for calculating the accuracy consists of errors in the trajectory parameters (altitude, velocity, etc.) at stage burnout as observed on Scout flights. Approximately 50 sets of errors are used in Monte Carlo analysis to generate error statistics in the trajectory parameters. A covariance matrix is formed which may be propagated in time. The mechanization of this process resulted in computer program Scout Trajectory Error Propagation (STEP) and is described herein. Computer program STEP may be used in conjunction with the Statistical Orbital Analysis Routine to generate accuracy in the orbit parameters (apogee, perigee, inclination, etc.) based upon flight experience.

Myler, T. R.↗

The use of multidate multichannel radiance data in urban feature analysis

Two images were obtained from thematic mappers on Landsats 4 and 5 over the Washington, DC area during November 1982 and March 1984. Selected training areas containing different types of urban land use were examined,one area consisting entirely of forest. Mean digital radiance values for each bandpass in each image were examined, and variances, standard deviations, and covariances between bandpasses were calculated. It has been found that two bandpasses caused forested areas to stand out from other land use types, especially for the November 1982 image. In order to evaluate quantitatively the possible utility of the principal components analysis in selected feature extraction, the eigenvectors were evaluated for principal axes rotations which rendered each selected land use type most separable from all other land use types. The evaluated eigenvectors were plotted as a function of land use type, whose order was decided by considering anticipated shadow component and by examining the relative loadings indicative of vegetation for each of the principal components for the different features considered. The analysis was performed for each seven-band image separately and for the two combined images. It was found that by combining the two images, more dramatic land use type separation could be obtained.

Duggin, M. J.↗

Assimilation of satellite microwave observations over the rainbands of tropical cyclones

A novel Bayesian Monte Carlo integration (BMCI) technique was developed to retrieve geophysical variables from satellite microwave radiometer data in the presence of tropical cyclones. The BMCI technique includes three steps: generating a stochastic database, simulating satellite brightness temperatures using a radiative transfer model, and retrieving geophysical variables such as profiles of temperature, relative humidity, and cloud liquid and ice water content from real observations. The technique also provides uncertainty estimates for each retrieval and can output the error covariance matrix of selected parameters. The measurements from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) on board Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) were used as input. A new technique was developed to correct the ATMS and GMI observations for the beam-filling effect, which is due to small-scale variability of precipitation and clouds when compared with the instrument footprint and also the nonlinear relation between the brightness temperature and precipitation. In addition, the assimilation of the BMCI retrievals into the NASA GEOS model is discussed for Hurricane Maria. The results show that assimilating the BMCI retrievals can influence the dynamical features of the cyclone, including a stronger warm core, a symmetric eye, and vertically aligned wind columns. Two possible factors that may limit the impact of the BMCI retrievals include 1) the resolution of the model (about 25 km), which was too coarse to show the potential of the BMCI data in improving the representation of tropical storms in the model forecast, and 2) the data assimilation system not being able to consider vertically correlated observation errors.

Isaac Moradi↗

Combining Multiple Gyroscope Outputs for Increased Accuracy

A proposed method of processing the outputs of multiple gyroscopes to increase the accuracy of rate (that is, angular-velocity) readings has been developed theoretically and demonstrated by computer simulation. Although the method is applicable, in principle, to any gyroscopes, it is intended especially for application to gyroscopes that are parts of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). The method is based on the concept that the collective performance of multiple, relatively inexpensive, nominally identical devices can be better than that of one of the devices considered by itself. The method would make it possible to synthesize the readings of a single, more accurate gyroscope (a virtual gyroscope) from the outputs of a large number of microscopic gyroscopes fabricated together on a single MEMS chip. The big advantage would be that the combination of the MEMS gyroscope array and the processing circuitry needed to implement the method would be smaller, lighter in weight, and less power-hungry, relative to a conventional gyroscope of equal accuracy. The method (see figure) is one of combining and filtering the digitized outputs of multiple gyroscopes to obtain minimum-variance estimates of rate. In the combining-and-filtering operations, measurement data from the gyroscopes would be weighted and smoothed with respect to each other according to the gain matrix of a minimum- variance filter. According to Kalman-filter theory, the gain matrix of the minimum-variance filter is uniquely specified by the filter covariance, which propagates according to a matrix Riccati equation. The present method incorporates an exact analytical solution of this equation.

Bayard, David S.↗

Covariability in the Monthly Mean Convective and Radiative Diurnal Cycles in the Amazon

The diurnal cycle of convective clouds greatly influences the radiative energy balance in convectively active regions of Earth, through both direct presence, and the production of anvil and stratiform clouds. Previous studies show that the frequency and properties of convective clouds can vary on monthly timescales as a result of variability in the monthly mean atmospheric state. Furthermore, the radiative budget in convectively active regions also varies by up to 7 Wm-2 in convectively active regions. These facts suggest that convective clouds connect atmospheric state variability and radiation variability beyond clear sky effects alone. Previous research has identified monthly covariability between the diurnal cycle of CERES-observed top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes and multiple atmospheric state variables from reanalysis over the Amazon region. ASVs that enhance (reduce) deep convection, such as CAPE (LTS), tend to shift the daily OLR and cloud albedo maxima earlier (later) in the day by 2-3 hr. We first test the analysis method using multiple reanalysis products for both the dry and wet seasons to further investigate the robustness of the preliminary results. We then use CloudSat data as an independent cloud observing system to further evaluate the relationships of cloud properties to variability in radiation and atmospheric states. While CERES can decompose OLR variability into clear sky and cloud effects, it cannot determine what variability in cloud properties lead to variability in the radiative cloud effects. Cloud frequency, cloud top height, and cloud microphysics all contribute to the cloud radiative effect, all of which are observable by CloudSat. In addition, CloudSat can also observe the presence and variability of deep convective cores responsible for the production of anvil clouds. We use these capabilities to determine the covariability of convective cloud properties and the radiative diurnal cycle.

Dodson, Jason B.↗

A declaration of independence for Mg/Si

The weak covariation that exists between Al/Si and Mg/Si for large areas of the lunar surface is little, if any, stronger than that forced on a random set of numbers that are subject to closure. The Mg and Al variations implied by the Mg/Si and Al/Si intensity ratio data are qualitatively like those seen in lunar soil sample data. Two petrogenetic provinces are suggested for terra materials; one appears to have 50% higher Mg values than the other. Using the improved data, Mg/Si variations can be studied at a signal-to-noise ratio greater than 5/1.

Hubbard, N.↗

Standard ozone profiles from balloon and satellite data sets

Standard profiles based on upper level averaged profiles from BUV and lower level averaged profiles from balloon measurements are presented in a parametric representation as a function of time of year and latitude. The representation is a simple 4-parameter function representing the ozone amount (m-atm-cm) in each of 12 atmospheric layers defined following the standard Umkehr convention. The same parameterization is applied to the Nimbus-7 SBUV data and is compared to the BUV/balloon parameterization. The ozone variance unaccounted for by the representation is presented and discussed. The season-latitude representation reduces considerably the ozone variance at all levels and explains much of the correlation between layers. This simple representation and corresponding covariance matrix have been used as a priori information in the ozone vertical profile inversion of the Nimbus-7 SBUV experimental measurements.

Klenk, K. F.↗

ILIAD Testing; and a Kalman Filter for 3-D Pose Estimation

This report presents the results of a two-part project. The first part presents results of performance assessment tests on an Internet Library Information Assembly Data Base (ILIAD). It was found that ILLAD performed best when queries were short (one-to-three keywords), and were made up of rare, unambiguous words. In such cases as many as 64% of the typically 25 returned documents were found to be relevant. It was also found that a query format that was not so rigid with respect to spelling errors and punctuation marks would be more user-friendly. The second part of the report shows the design of a Kalman Filter for estimating motion parameters of a three dimensional object from sequences of noisy data derived from two-dimensional pictures. Given six measured deviation values represendng X, Y, Z, pitch, yaw, and roll, twelve parameters were estimated comprising the six deviations and their time rate of change. Values for the state transiton matrix, the observation matrix, the system noise covariance matrix, and the observation noise covariance matrix were determined. A simple way of initilizing the error covariance matrix was pointed out.

Richardson, A. O.↗

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Hoffman, Ross N.↗

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Attitude Sensor and Gyro Calibration for Messenger

The Redundant Inertial Measurement Unit Attitude Determination/Calibration (RADICAL(TM)) filter was used to estimate star tracker and gyro calibration parameters using MESSENGER telemetry data from three calibration events. We present an overview of the MESSENGER attitude sensors and their configuration is given, the calibration maneuvers are described, the results are compared with previous calibrations, and variations and trends in the estimated calibration parameters are examined. The warm restart and covariance bump features of the RADICAL(TM) filter were used to estimate calibration parameters from two disjoint telemetry streams. Results show that the calibration parameters converge faster with much less transient variation during convergence than when the filter is cold-started at the start of each telemetry stream.

O'Shaughnessy, Daniel↗

Geodetic Investigations of the Mission Concept MAGIC to Reveal Callisto’s Internal Structure

Geodetic and geophysical investigations of the Galilean moon Callisto address fundamental questions regarding the formation and evolution of the Jovian system. Callisto's evolution and internal structure appear to significantly differ from the other Jovian satellites. Similarly-sized Ganymede is a highly evolved ice-rock moon with a differentiated interior, intrinsic magnetic field, and abundant surface evidence of internal activity. In contrast, Callisto's surface is ancient, and Galileo spacecraft data suggest its interior is only incompletely differentiated, despite the presumed presence of a sub-surface ocean. These properties make Callisto uniquely able to constrain the timing and nature of the Jovian system formation. The Magnetics, Altimetry, Gravity, and Imaging of Callisto (MAGIC) mission concept is conceived to fully characterize the properties of this enigmatic moon from its deep interior to the icy shell. Three main instruments are included as a scientific payload. Highly accurate measurements of Callisto's topography, magnetic field, and morphology are obtained by the onboard laser altimeter, magnetometer, and camera, respectively. The telecommunication system supports an additional gravity and radio science investigation. Long- and short-wavelength gravity anomalies afford powerful constraints on internal differentiation and the properties of the hydrosphere (water and ice). Comprehensive numerical simulations and covariance analyses of MAGIC mission scenarios presented in this paper show that the gravitational degree-2 normalized coefficients and the pole obliquity enable the determination of the moment of inertia with an accuracy better than 0.015%. The combination of gravity and altimetry measurements acquired by MAGIC are essential to the characterization of Callisto's interior if – as is likely – the degree-2 gravity includes non-hydrostatic terms. MAGIC's radio science data yield the estimation of Callisto's gravity field with spatial resolutions of <100 km. The combination of gravitational and deformation tides that are retrieved by the radio science and altimetry investigations, respectively, leads to the recovery of the rigid ice shell thickness to within ∼3 km. Together these datasets would resolve ambiguities inherent in Galileo flyby data, revealing Callisto's interior structure as well as the existence and properties of its postulated internal ocean.

Antonio Genova↗

Observed Covariations in Boundary Layer and Cumulus Cloud Layer Processes

In this paper we examine variations in boundary-layer processes spanning the shallow to deep cumulus transition. This is accomplished by differentiating boundary layer properties on the basis of convective outcomes, ranging from shallow to deep, as observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, USA. Doppler lidar, radar, and radiosonde data are combined to determine statistical differences in boundary layer and cloud layer properties using a large sample (236) of days with a range of convective outcomes: shallow, congestus, and deep convection. In these analyses, the radar characterizes diurnal cloud depth, the lidar quantifies updraft and downdraft properties in the subcloud layer, and daily radiosonde data provides the convective inhibition (CIN). Combined, these data are used to test the hypothesis that deep convection occurs when the strength of the boundary layer turbulence (i.e., TKE) exceeds the strength of the energy barrier (i.e., CIN) at the top of the CBL. Results show that days with deep convective clouds have significantly lower vertical velocity variance and weaker updrafts within the subcloud layer. However, CIN values are also found to be significantly lower on deep convective days, allowing for these weaker updrafts to penetrate the energy barrier and reach the level of free convection (LFC). In contrast, shallow convective outcomes occur when the updrafts are strong in an absolute sense, but are weak when compared to the strength of the energy barrier. These findings support the use of the CIN/TKE framework in parameterizing convection in coarse resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Principal Component Analysis of azimuthal flow in intermediate-energy heavy-ion reactions

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) via Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) of large datasets is an adaptive exploratory method to uncover natural patterns underlying the data. Several recent applications of the PCA-SVD to event-by-event single-particle azimuthal angle distribution matrices in ultra-relativistic heavy-ion collisions at RHIC-LHC energies indicate that the sine and cosine functions chosen a priori in the traditional Fourier analysis are naturally the most optimal basis for azimuthal flow studies according to the data itself. We perform PCA-SVD analyses of mid-central Au+Au collisions at $E$ $beam$ / $A$ =1.23 GeV simulated using an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model to address the following two questions: (1) if the principal components of the covariance matrix of nucleon azimuthal angle distributions in heavy-ion reactions around 1 GeV/nucleon are naturally sine and/or cosine functions and (2) what if any advantages the PCA-SVD may have over the traditional flow analysis using the Fourier expansion for studying the EOS of dense nuclear matter. In conclusion, we find that (1) in none of our analyses the principal components come out naturally as sine and/or cosine functions, (2) while both the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the covariance matrix are appreciably EOS dependent, the PCA-SVD has no apparent advantage over the traditional Fourier analysis for studying the EOS of dense nuclear matter using the azimuthal collective flow in heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A proposed method for addressing large unphysical uncertainties in mubar

Mubar uncertainties in Section MF 34 MT 2 of ENDF/B-VIII.0 data are sometimes too large. Physical limitations of the bounds of mubar limit the maximum uncertainty to be < 1.0 and usually $\ll$ 1.0. Two ad hoc methods are proposed to artificially constrain the randomly sampled values of mubar to allowable values. The application of NJOY’s mubar covariance matrix to the “sandwich rule” is also discussed and a consistent way to apply sensitivity coefficients is described. Mubar uncertainties for the Jezebel k eff were found to be 156 pcm – a value comparable to other evaluated cross section uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗