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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

Credible Practice of Models and Simulations for Healthcare

As computational models penetrate clinical care and drive healthcare policy decisions, there is increasing need to communicate that model creation and testing follows reasonable credible practice. Although verification and validation have been generally accepted as significant components of a model’s credibility, they cannot be assumed to equate to a holistic credible practice, which includes activities that can impact comprehension and in-depth examination inherent in the development and reuse of the models. This presentation introduces the Ten Rules for credible practice of modeling and simulation in healthcare developed from a comparative multidisciplinary analysis and practitioner survey. These rules establish a unified conceptual framework for modeling and simulation design, implementation, evaluation, dissemination and usage across the modeling and simulation life-cycle. Although some of these are common sense guidelines, many are often missed or misconstrued, even by seasoned practitioners.

credibility↗

TPS Certification by Analysis: Model-Driven Characterization of Properties and Failure in Woven Thermal Protection Systems

Woven, ablative thermal protection system (TPS) materials provide a robust option for aggressive (re)entries and thus have been baselined for the upcoming Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission's Earth Entry System (EES). The reliability requirements for MSR-EES necessitate understanding of material property variability, which could be significant given the complex structure and anisotropic nature of properties in TPS weaves, as well as the response to potential impact with micrometeoroids or orbital debris during the EES re-entry. The TPS Certification by Analysis effort within the Entry Systems Modeling project seeks to provide computational models and analyses that support the certification against such material-based risks. For the present talk, focus will be given to the characterization of baseline woven TPS material properties and mechanical failure limits, which entails (1) use of computational techniques (e.g., machine learning) to interpret computed tomography images of the weave to generate representative structural models and (2) application of multiscale material modeling approaches to characterize thermomechanical and failure properties.

thermal protection systems↗

TPS Certification by Analysis: Model-Driven Characterization of Properties and Failure in Woven Thermal Protection Systems

Woven, ablative thermal protection system (TPS) materials provide a robust option for aggressive (re)entries and thus have been baselined for the upcoming Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission’s Earth Entry System (EES). The reliability requirements for MSR-EES necessitate understanding of material property variability, which could be significant given the complex structure and anisotropic nature of properties in TPS weaves, as well as the response to potential impact with micrometeoroids or orbital debris during the EES re-entry. The TPS Certification by Analysis effort within the Entry Systems Modeling project seeks to provide computational models and analyses that support the certification against such material-based risks. For the present talk, focus will be given to the characterization of baseline woven TPS material properties and mechanical failure limits, which entails (1) use of computational techniques (e.g., machine learning) to interpret computed tomography images of the weave to generate representative structural models and (2) application of multiscale material modeling approaches to characterize thermomechanical and failure properties.

Justin B. Haskins↗

More-Accurate Model of Flows in Rocket Injectors

An improved computational model for simulating flows in liquid-propellant injectors in rocket engines has been developed. Models like this one are needed for predicting fluxes of heat in, and performances of, the engines. An important part of predicting performance is predicting fluctuations of temperature, fluctuations of concentrations of chemical species, and effects of turbulence on diffusion of heat and chemical species. Customarily, diffusion effects are represented by parameters known in the art as the Prandtl and Schmidt numbers. Prior formulations include ad hoc assumptions of constant values of these parameters, but these assumptions and, hence, the formulations, are inaccurate for complex flows. In the improved model, these parameters are neither constant nor specified in advance: instead, they are variables obtained as part of the solution. Consequently, this model represents the effects of turbulence on diffusion of heat and chemical species more accurately than prior formulations do, and may enable more-accurate prediction of mixing and flows of heat in rocket-engine combustion chambers. The model has been implemented within CRUNCH CFD, a proprietary computational fluid dynamics (CFD) computer program, and has been tested within that program. The model could also be implemented within other CFD programs.

Hosangadi, Ashvin↗

General Multifidelity Surrogate Models: Framework and Active-Learning Strategies for Efficient Rare Event Simulation

Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. Here, this paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

SBML Level 3: an extensible format for the exchange and reuse of biological models

Systems biology has experienced dramatic growth in the number, size, and complexity of computational models. To reproduce simulation results and reuse models, researchers must exchange unambiguous model descriptions. We review the latest edition of the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML), a format designed for this purpose. A community of modelers and software authors developed SBML Level 3 over the past decade. Its modular form consists of a core suited to representing reaction-based models and packages that extend the core with features suited to other model types including constraint-based models, reaction-diffusion models, logical network models, and rule-based models. The format leverages two decades of SBML and a rich software ecosystem that transformed how systems biologists build and interact with models. More recently, the rise of multiscale models of whole cells and organs, and new data sources such as single-cell measurements and live imaging, has precipitated new ways of integrating data with models. We provide our perspectives on the challenges presented by these developments and how SBML Level 3 provides the foundation needed to support this evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling gas–shell mixing in ICF with separated reactants

Mixing between fuel and shell materials in ICF implosions can affect implosion dynamics and even prevent ignition. We use data from a series of separated reactant experiments on the National Ignition Facility to calibrate and test the predictive power of gas–shell mix models. Two models are used to estimate fuel–shell mix: a Reynolds-averaged turbulence model and molecular diffusion. Minor uncertainties in capsule manufacture, experimental conditions, and values for mix model parameters produce significant variation in simulation results. Using input/output pairs from 1D simulations, we train Gaussian process surrogate models to predict experimental quantities of interest. The surrogates are used to construct posteriors for mix model parameters by marginalizing over uncertainties in capsule manufacture and experimental conditions. Mix models are calibrated with a subset of experimental data (neutron yields, ion temperature, and bang time) and tested using the remaining data. In general, both the diffusion and turbulence model correctly predict experimental DT and TT neutron yields. Despite having more free parameters, the turbulence model underpredicts ion temperature at high convergence ratio. Furthermore, the simpler diffusion model correctly predicts these temperatures, suggesting nonhydrodynamic gas–shell mix. The computational model consistently overpredicts DD neutron yield, indicating possible shortcomings outside of the mix model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Calculating Performances Of Fabry-Perot Etalons

Effects of changes in design determined quickly. Etalon Model computer program implements stand-alone mathematical model of an etalon. Designed to perform calculations over many wavelengths. Used to determine sensitivity of filter to changes in temperature, thickness tolerances, or alignment angles of etalon design. Calculates several performance parameters of etalons by use of equations in closed form, and calculates transmission as function of wavelength and uses transmission data to determine additional performance parameters. Developed on IBM PS/2 Model 80-071 computer using Microsoft version 4.01 FORTRAN compiler.

Cross, Patricia L.↗

Computational quantum chemistry of metal–organic frameworks

Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) have premium exceptional properties for a variety of functions, such as gas separation and storage and catalysis. The large variety of possible inorganometallic nodes and organic linkers provide an almost unlimited number of combinations for assembling MOFs, which makes the experimental characterization and examination of all potentially useful combinations practically impossible. Furthermore, experimental studies of MOFs typically fall short in uncovering crucial details regarding their mechanisms of action or the molecular details responsible for their functional properties, such as the nature of adsorbate binding or the structures of transition states. Computational modeling has, therefore, become an efficient and important tool for strategizing the functionalization of MOFs and explicating the mechanisms of their functions. Furthermore, we review the computational methodologies used for computational studies of MOFs, especially Kohn–Sham density functional theory and combined quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical methods for calculating their structural, electronic, and magnetic properties, as well as for understanding the mechanisms of MOFs' applications to magetic devices, thermal conduction, gas adsorption, separation, storage, and sensing, thermal catalysis, photocatalysis, and electrocatalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multifunctional Chiral Chemically‐Powered Micropropellers for Cargo Transport and Manipulation

Practical applications of synthetic self-propelled nano and microparticles for microrobotics, targeted drug delivery, and manipulation at the nanoscale are rapidly expanding. However, fabrication limitations often hinder progress, resulting in relatively simple shapes and limited functionality. Here, taking advantage of 3D nanoscale printing, chiral micropropellers powered by the hydrogen peroxide reduction reaction are fabricated. Due to their chirality, the propellers exhibit multifunctional behavior controlled by an applied magnetic field: spinning in place (loitering), directed migration in the prescribed direction, capture, and transport of polymer cargo particles. Design parameters of the propellers are optimized by computation modeling based on mesoscale molecular dynamics. It is predicted by computer simulations, and confirmed experimentally, that clockwise rotating propellers attract each other and counterclockwise repel. These results shed light on how chirality and shape optimization enhance the functionality of synthetic autonomous micromachines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simplified Modeling of Oxidation of Hydrocarbons

A method of simplified computational modeling of oxidation of hydrocarbons is undergoing development. This is one of several developments needed to enable accurate computational simulation of turbulent, chemically reacting flows. At present, accurate computational simulation of such flows is difficult or impossible in most cases because (1) the numbers of grid points needed for adequate spatial resolution of turbulent flows in realistically complex geometries are beyond the capabilities of typical supercomputers now in use and (2) the combustion of typical hydrocarbons proceeds through decomposition into hundreds of molecular species interacting through thousands of reactions. Hence, the combination of detailed reaction- rate models with the fundamental flow equations yields flow models that are computationally prohibitive. Hence, further, a reduction of at least an order of magnitude in the dimension of reaction kinetics is one of the prerequisites for feasibility of computational simulation of turbulent, chemically reacting flows. In the present method of simplified modeling, all molecular species involved in the oxidation of hydrocarbons are classified as either light or heavy; heavy molecules are those having 3 or more carbon atoms. The light molecules are not subject to meaningful decomposition, and the heavy molecules are considered to decompose into only 13 specified constituent radicals, a few of which are listed in the table. One constructs a reduced-order model, suitable for use in estimating the release of heat and the evolution of temperature in combustion, from a base comprising the 13 constituent radicals plus a total of 26 other species that include the light molecules and related light free radicals. Then rather than following all possible species through their reaction coordinates, one follows only the reduced set of reaction coordinates of the base. The behavior of the base was examined in test computational simulations of the combustion of heptane in a stirred reactor at various initial pressures ranging from 0.1 to 6 MPa. Most of the simulations were performed for stoichiometric mixtures; some were performed for fuel/oxygen mole ratios of 1/2 and 2.

Bellan, Josette↗

Pressure Loss Predictions of the Reactor Simulator Subsystem at NASA Glenn Research Center

Testing of the Fission Power System (FPS) Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) is being conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center. The TDU consists of three subsystems: the reactor simulator (RxSim), the Stirling Power Conversion Unit (PCU), and the heat exchanger manifold (HXM). An annular linear induction pump (ALIP) is used to drive the working fluid. A preliminary version of the TDU system (which excludes the PCU for now) is referred to as the "RxSim subsystem" and was used to conduct flow tests in Vacuum Facility 6 (VF 6). In parallel, a computational model of the RxSim subsystem was created based on the computer-aided-design (CAD) model and was used to predict loop pressure losses over a range of mass flows. This was done to assess the ability of the pump to meet the design intent mass flow demand. Measured data indicates that the pump can produce 2.333 kg/sec of flow, which is enough to supply the RxSim subsystem with a nominal flow of 1.75 kg/sec. Computational predictions indicated that the pump could provide 2.157 kg/sec (using the Spalart-Allmaras (S‒A) turbulence model) and 2.223 kg/sec (using the k- turbulence model). The computational error of the predictions for the available mass flow is ‒0.176 kg/sec (with the S-A turbulence model) and -0.110 kg/sec (with the k- turbulence model) when compared to measured data.

Mass Flow↗

A large-scale computer facility for computational aerodynamics

As a result of advances related to the combination of computer system technology and numerical modeling, computational aerodynamics has emerged as an essential element in aerospace vehicle design methodology. NASA has, therefore, initiated the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulation (NAS) Program with the objective to provide a basis for further advances in the modeling of aerodynamic flowfields. The Program is concerned with the development of a leading-edge, large-scale computer facility. This facility is to be made available to Government agencies, industry, and universities as a necessary element in ensuring continuing leadership in computational aerodynamics and related disciplines. Attention is given to the requirements for computational aerodynamics, the principal specific goals of the NAS Program, the high-speed processor subsystem, the workstation subsystem, the support processing subsystem, the graphics subsystem, the mass storage subsystem, the long-haul communication subsystem, the high-speed data-network subsystem, and software.

Bailey, F. R.↗

Simulating Human Cognition in the Domain of Air Traffic Control

Experiments intended to assess performance in human-machine interactions are often prohibitively expensive, unethical or otherwise impractical to run. Approximations of experimental results can be obtained, in principle, by simulating the behavior of subjects using computer models of human mental behavior. Computer simulation technology has been developed for this purpose. Our goal is to produce a cognitive model suitable to guide the simulation machinery and enable it to closely approximate a human subject's performance in experimental conditions. The described model is designed to simulate a variety of cognitive behaviors involved in routine air traffic control. As the model is elaborated, our ability to predict the effects of novel circumstances on controller error rates and other performance characteristics should increase. This will enable the system to project the impact of proposed changes to air traffic control procedures and equipment on controller performance.

Freed, Michael↗

Supersonic Retro-Propulsion Experimental Design for Computational Fluid Dynamics Model Validation

The development of supersonic retro-propulsion, an enabling technology for heavy payload exploration missions to Mars, is the primary focus for the present paper. A new experimental model, intended to provide computational fluid dynamics model validation data, was recently designed for the Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel Test Section 2. Pre-test computations were instrumental for sizing and refining the model, over the Mach number range of 2.4 to 4.6, such that tunnel blockage and internal flow separation issues would be minimized. A 5-in diameter 70-deg sphere-cone forebody, which accommodates up to four 4:1 area ratio nozzles, followed by a 10-in long cylindrical aftbody was developed for this study based on the computational results. The model was designed to allow for a large number of surface pressure measurements on the forebody and aftbody. Supplemental data included high-speed Schlieren video and internal pressures and temperatures. The run matrix was developed to allow for the quantification of various sources of experimental uncertainty, such as random errors due to run-to-run variations and bias errors due to flow field or model misalignments. Some preliminary results and observations from the test are presented, although detailed analyses of the data and uncertainties are still on going.

Berry, Scott A.↗

Development of a Computational Fluid Dynamics Model for a High-Speed Centrifugal Compressor

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has become widely used in the design and analysis of turbomachinery components such as centrifugal compressors. However, CFD is only a limited representation of experimental cases and struggles to model complex flows or can lack small model details to increase computation speed. To make advancements in compressor technology, designers need tools like CFD that can help them predict flow behavior in new designs. The High Efficiency Centrifugal Compressor (HECC) was designed by United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) for NASA to investigate the difficulties behind improving centrifugal compressor technology and to provide an open case to the turbomachinery research community. CFD analysis was completed by UTRC to aid in the design process. The pre-test study significantly overpredicted the compressor’s performance, and while post-test analysis was more representative, its results have yet to be publicly available. CFD technology has also since improved in recent years. In this study, a high-fidelity computational model for the vaneless configuration of HECC operating at its design point was developed and compared to an equivalent experimental case. This model incorporated GPU versions of mesh generation and solver codes from AeroDynamic Solutions, Inc. The development of such a model is significant since there has yet to be a published numerical simulation of HECC’s vaneless configuration. Additionally, the use of GPU codes decreases computation times for the model, which has allowed for the inclusion of impeller blade fillets. Initial results showed a general overprediction of compressor performance by the model. Predictions were more accurate for the impeller compared to predictions for the full compressor stage. Spanwise analyses showed that the model tended to follow flow behavior patterns exhibited in the experiment. Beyond this study, this model will be iterated upon and experimentally validated to further examine HECC performance.

centrifugal compressor↗