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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2009

Winter QPF Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

Steady increases in computing power have allowed for numerical weather prediction models to be initialized and run at high spatial resolution, permitting a transition from larger scale parameterizations of the effects of clouds and precipitation to the simulation of specific microphysical processes and hydrometeor size distributions. Although still relatively coarse in comparison to true cloud resolving models, these high resolution forecasts (on the order of 4 km or less) have demonstrated value in the prediction of severe storm mode and evolution and are being explored for use in winter weather events . Several single-moment bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the latest release of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model suite, including the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, which incorporate some assumptions in the size distribution of a small number of hydrometeor classes in order to predict their evolution, advection and precipitation within the forecast domain. Although many of these schemes produce similar forecasts of events on the synoptic scale, there are often significant details regarding precipitation and cloud cover, as well as the distribution of water mass among the constituent hydrometeor classes. Unfortunately, validating data for cloud resolving model simulations are sparse. Field campaigns require in-cloud measurements of hydrometeors from aircraft in coordination with extensive and coincident ground based measurements. Radar remote sensing is utilized to detect the spatial coverage and structure of precipitation. Here, two radar systems characterize the structure of winter precipitation for comparison to equivalent features within a forecast model: a 3 GHz, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) based in Omaha, Nebraska, and the 94 GHz NASA CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, a spaceborne instrument and member of the afternoon or "A-Train" of polar orbiting satellites tasked with cataloguing global cloud characteristics. Each system provides a unique perspective. The WSR-88D operates in a surveillance mode, sampling cloud volumes of Rayleigh scatterers where reflectivity is proportional to the sixth moment of the size distribution of equivalent spheres. The CloudSat radar provides enhanced sensitivity to smaller cloud ice crystals aloft, as well as consistent vertical profiles along each orbit. However, CloudSat reflectivity signatures are complicated somewhat by resonant Mie scattering effects and significant attenuation in the presence of cloud or rain water. Here, both radar systems are applied to a case of light to moderate snowfall within the warm frontal zone of a cold season, synoptic scale storm. Radars allow for an evaluation of the accuracy of a single-moment scheme in replicating precipitation structures, based on the bulk statistical properties of precipitation as suggested by reflectivity signatures.

Molthan, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2024

Visual feedback and guided balance training in an immersive virtual reality environment for lower extremity rehabilitation

Balance training is essential for physical rehabilitation procedures, as it can improve functional mobility and enhance cognitive coordination. However, conventional balance training methods may have limitations in terms of motivation, real-time objective feedback, and personalization, which a virtual reality (VR) setup may provide a better alternative. In this work, we present an immersive VR training environment for lower extremity balance rehabilitation with real-time guidance and feedback. The VR training environment immerses the user in a 3D ice rink model where a virtual coach (agent) leads them through a series of balance poses, and the user controls a trainee avatar with their own movements. Here we developed two coaching styles: positive-reinforcement and autonomous-supportive, and two viewpoints of the trainee avatar: first-person and third-person. The proposed environment was evaluated in a user study with healthy, non-clinical participants (n = 16, 24.4 ± 5.7 years old, 9 females). Our results show that participants showed stronger performance in the positive-reinforcement style compared to the autonomous-supportive style. Additionally, in the third-person viewpoint, the participants exhibited more stability in the positive-reinforcement style compared to the autonomous-supportive style. For viewpoint, participants exhibited stronger performance in the first-person viewpoint compared to third-person in the autonomous-supportive style, while they were comparable in the positive-reinforcement style. We observed no significant effects on the foot height and number of mistakes. Furthermore, we report the analysis of user performance with balance training poses and subjective measures based on questionnaires to assess the user experience, usability, and task load. The proposed VR balance training could offer an interactive, adaptive, and engaging environment and open new potential research directions for lower extremity rehabilitation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving the stability and performance of MagLIF implosions by applying dielectric coatings and increasing applied B z , fuel preheat, and load current

We report two magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments that produced record thermonuclear D–D neutron yields of 2.11×10 13 and 2.33×10 13 . These yields are about a factor of two higher than previous MagLIF results. The experiments achieved ion temperatures of 3.0 and 3.3 keV and stagnation pressures of 1.6 and 1.3 Gbar. The inferred Lawson parameters were χ=0.2 and 0.1, which are the largest reported for MagLIF. The performance increase used a high-aspect-ratio beryllium liner with a dielectric coating and modest increases in preheat energy (∼2.2 kJ), peak current (18.5 MA), and axial magnetic field (15 T). Three-dimensional HYDRA simulations are consistent with the measured liner dynamics and fusion outputs. These results indicate a pathway to higher-yield MagLIF designs using coated, high-aspect-ratio liners and improved input parameters. Simulations further suggest that adding an ice fuel layer could increase yield by up to a factor of 2.5 by reducing liner convergence, instability feedthrough, and mix.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

CoLoRe-2LPT: Lyman-$α$ mock catalogues for the validation of DESI cosmological analyses

The Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest has become a crucial probe for studying the large-scale structure of the universe at high redshift ($z > 2$), providing powerful constraints on Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) and the full-shape (FS) clustering of matter. As a key ingredient for upcoming BAO and FS analyses, we present a new generation of fast cosmological Ly$α$ mocks based on second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT). These new mocks significantly improve upon previous log-normal approaches, both at accurately capturing small scale clustering and at recovering the non-linear broadening of the BAO peak. They are able to reproduce Ly$α$ statistics within $10\%$ of the latest DESI measurement; including the Ly$α$ bias and the redshift-space distortion $β$ parameter, mean transmitted flux, and 1D power spectrum. The corresponding quasar (QSO) clustering is also improved with respect to previous approaches, calibrated against high-resolution Abacus simulations, recovering the observational QSO linear bias to less than $5\%$ and improving redshift-space distortions via 2LPT velocities and the addition of Fingers-of-God effects. Furthermore, these mocks incorporate high column density systems and metal lines, allowing us to explore the effects and systematics induced by these astrophysical contaminants. This new set of mocks has been key for enhancing the modeling and validation of the DESI DR2 Ly$α$ full shape cosmological analysis. This work provides a physically motivated and computationally efficient tool for simulating current and next-generation Ly$α$ surveys and validating FS and BAO analysis.

Bernal, M.F. Ruiz-Herrera [Madrid, CIEMAT] (ORCID:↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design and analysis of dudded fuel experiments at the National Ignition Facility

Recent experiments conducted at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) within the past 2 years have achieved the burning plasma state and exceeded the Lawson criterion for the first time in the laboratory. Here, we report on a set of experiments where the deuterium and tritium (DT) ice layers were replaced with dudded tritium, hydrogen, and deuterium (THD) fuel mixtures to remove the influence of alpha-heating on hot spot dynamics. The hot spot compression and yield in the absence of alpha particle self-heating were measured to assess the proximity of NIF implosions toward the ignition cliff. We find that the “burn-off” Lawson parameters χnoα inferred from the THD experiments are in good agreement with the inferences from postshot simulations of the DT-layered implosions. The THD for burning plasma shot N210307 yielded χnoα≈0.88±0.03 while the THD for ignition shot N210808 yielded χnoα≈1.04±0.04. These results also provide important context for the observed variability in the repeat attempts of ignition shot N210808 since implosions on the ignition cliff are expected to exhibit very large variations in the fusion yield from small changes in the initial conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2017

Historic Global Biomass Burning Emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) Based on Merging Satellite Observations with Proxies and Fire Models (1750-2015)

Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data has shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emissions estimates based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies, and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 petagrams of carbon per year. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990's after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 percent of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emissions estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.

Biomass burning; Satellite observations; computer ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are light curve classification metrics good proxies for SN Ia cosmological constraining power?

Context. When selecting a light curve classifier for use as part of a photometric supernova Ia (SN Ia) cosmological analysis, it is common to make decisions based on metrics of classification performance, such as the contamination within the photometrically classified SN Ia sample, rather than a measure of cosmological constraining power. If the former is an appropriate proxy for the latter, this practice would eliminate the computational expense of a full cosmology forecast in the analysis pipeline design process. Aims. This study tests the assumption that light curve classification metrics are an appropriate proxy for cosmology metrics. Methods. We emulated photometric SN Ia cosmology light curve samples with controlled contamination rates of individual contaminant classes and evaluated each of them under a set of classification metrics. We then derived cosmological parameter constraints from all samples under two common analysis approaches and quantified the impact of contamination by each contaminant class on the resulting cosmological parameter estimates. Results. We observe that cosmology metrics are sensitive to both the contamination rate and the class of the contaminating population, whereas the classification metrics are shown to be insensitive to the latter. Conclusions. Based on these findings, we discourage any exclusive reliance on light curve classification-based metrics for analysis design decisions, which (counterintuitively) include but are not limited to the classifier choice. Instead, we recommend optimising science analysis pipeline design choices using a metric of the information gained about the physical parameters of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2016

40 Years of Processing Pieces of Space

This year marks the 40th year anniversary for the Antarctic Search for Meteorite (ANSMET) program. In 1976, the ANSMET program led the first expedition to Antarctica. The ANSMET program is a US-led field-based science project that recovers meteorite samples from Antarctica. Once a year from late November to late January, a field team consisting of 8 to 12 people, spends 6-8 weeks camping on the ice and collecting meteorites. Since 1976, more than 22,000 meteorite samples have been recovered. These meteorites come from asteroids, planets and other bodies of the solar system. Once collected, the Antarctic meteorites are shipped to NASA/Johnson Space Center (JSC) Houston, TX. in a refrigerated truck and are kept frozen to minimize oxidation until they are ready for initial processing. In Antarctica each meteorite is given a field tag which consists of numbers, once in the lab, this is replaced by an official tag, consisting of the Antarctic field location and year collected. The types and numbers of meteorites that have been classified include 849 carbonaceous chondrites, 135 enstatites, 512 achondrites, 64 stony, 115 irons, 48 others (27 R chondrites, 7 ungrouped), 6,161 H chondrites, 7,668 L chondrites, and 4,589 LL chondrites. Although 80-85 percent of the collected meteorites fall in the ordinary chondrite group, the other approximately 15 percent represent rare types of achondrites and carbonaceous chondrites. These rare meteorites include 25 lunar meteorites, 15 Martian meteorites, scores of various types of carbonaceous chondrites, and unique achondrites. The Antarctic meteorites that have been collected are processed in the Meteorite Processing Lab at JSC in Houston, TX. Initial processing of the meteorites begins with thawing/drying the meteorites in a nitrogen glove box for 24 to 48 hours. The meteorites are then photographed, measured, weighed and a description of the interior and exterior of each meteorite is written. The meteorite is broken and a representative sample, either a 1-3 gram chip or thin section is sent to the Smithsonian Institution for classification. After Antarctic meteorites have been classified and approved by the Nomenclature Committee of the Meteoritical Society, they are announced in the Antarctic Meteorite Newsletter, which is published twice per year (fall and spring) so that scientists may review which meteorites are available to study. Requests for Antarctic Meteorite samples are welcomed from research scientists, regardless of their current state of funding for meteorite studies. Since its inception over 3,300 requests have been made for pieces of these meteorites and over 400 investigators worldwide are active in the study of meteorites.. Research on these samples has been published in more than1500 peer reviewed articles; a listing of papers for any meteorite sample can be generated by accessing http://curator.jsc.nasa.gov/antmet/referencesearch.cfm. Antarctic meteorite samples requested by scientists are prepared several different ways. Most samples are prepared as chips, either using a rock splitter or using a chisel and chipping bowl. In special situations, a researcher may request a meteorite slab in which case the samples are cut using a diamond-bladed bandsaw inside of a dry nitrogen glove box. The meteorites are always cut in a 100 percent liquid-free environment. Additionally, thin/thick sections of Antarctic meteorites are also prepared at JSC. The meteorite thin section lab at JSC can prepare standard 30-micron thin sections, thick sections of variable thickness (100 to 200 microns), or demountable sections using superglue, all section are prepared without using water. Although many of the techniques used back in the '70's are still used today, advances in computers, software, databases, available tools and instrumentation have helped to streamline and shorten the duration of the classification process. In conjunction with present day missions to asteroids and other planets, meteorite studies have not only led to a better understanding of the complex histories of these bodies but have also tied certain meteorite groups to particular asteroid bodies. New meteorite discoveries by the ANSMET program provide a cost effective method for obtaining samples of previously unsampled bodies, allowing scientists to learn more about the origin, composition, and evolution of the solar system. Preservation in our cleanrooms at NASA allows material to be archived for future generations and advances in instrumentation and analysis.

Satterwhite, C. E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing new analysis tools for near surface radio-based neutrino detectors

The ARIANNA experiment is an Askaryan radio detector designed to measure high-energy neutrino induced cascades within the Antarctic ice. Ultra-high-energy neutrinos above 10 16 eV have an extremely low flux, so experimental data captured at trigger level need to be classified correctly to retain as much neutrino signal as possible. We first describe two new physics-based neutrino selection methods, or "cuts", (the updown and dipole cut) that extend the previously published analysis to a specialized ARIANNA station with 8 antenna channels, which is double the number used in the prior analysis. For a standard trigger with a threshold signal to noise ratio at 4.4, the new cuts produce a neutrino efficiency of > 95% per station-year of operation, while rejecting 99.93% of the background (corresponding to 53 remaining experimental background events). When the new cuts are combined with a previously developed cut using neutrino waveform templates, all background is removed at no change of efficiency. In addition, the neutrino efficiency is extrapolated to 1,000 station-years of operation, obtaining 91%. This work then introduces a new selection method (the deep learning cut) to augment the identification of neutrino events by using deep learning methods and compares the efficiency to the physics-based analysis. The deep learning cut gives 99% signal efficiency per station-year of operation while rejecting 99.997% of the background (corresponding to 2 remaining experimental background events), which are subsequently removed by the waveform template cut at no significant change in efficiency. Here the results of the deep learning cut were verified using measured cosmic rays which shows that the simulations do not introduce artifacts with respect to experimental data. The paper demonstrates that the background rejection and signal efficiency of near surface antennas meets the requirements of a large scale future array, as considered in baseline design of the radio component of IceCube-Gen2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) Aerocapture System for Enabling Faster-Larger Planetary Science & Human Exploration Missions

Since our completing the NIAC Phase I NIAC on this Advanced Aerocapture System, NASA Langley Research Center has funded or supported a number of studies and code enhancements through its Center Innovation Fund (CIF) and NASA’s NSTGRO and Internship Programs to mature the analysis capabilities and quantify the merits of the MHD Aerocapture System technology. These efforts have resulted in a plug and play analysis capability for assessing MHD aerocapture system performance for arrival at many planetary bodies of interest. Our efforts have especially focused on the potential mass savings for improving the capacity for science observations at Neptune and Triton. A re-cent Forbes article published “‘Orbital mechanics is probably going to decide for us whether we go to Uranus or Neptune because we need to flyby Jupiter,’ said Kunio Sayanagi at Hampton University, Virginia, who also worked on the Neptune Odyssey proposal…. Exactly when a mission can be sent to Uranus, or Neptune, depends on the relative position of Jupiter, which can help give a spacecraft a gravitational slingshot. That drastically shortens the cruise phase.” [1] Since shortening the cruise phase is important for these science missions, any mass savings enabled by the MHD Aerocapture System could be reallocated to increasing Thermal Protection System mass to allow faster arrival speeds and/or for onboarding additional payloads such as science instruments, batteries, or propellant for conducting more science for longer durations in the desired orbits. The analysis steps and codes for conducting trades and sizing vehicles for aerocapture are as follows: Step 1 is to conduct aeroheating analysis using LAURA of the selected entry vehicle shape to identify locations on the forebody where ionization and flow velocity are sufficient for producing Lo-rentz forces. LAURA is a multiblock structured grid finite-volume CFD solver developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. [2] LAURA has been used for aerothermal analysis support of the entry, de-scent and landing (EDL) phase of interplanetary missions over the last three decades [3-7]. Step 2 is to port the LAURA results into CFDWARP to calcu-late electrical and thermal conductivities of ionized flow for sizing MHD patch system and calculating Lorentz forces needed for controls analysis. CFDWARP is a CFD code that uses advanced nu-merical methods that enable the simulation of the full coupling between the aerodynamics, the magne-tohydrodynamics, and the non-neutral plasma sheaths. CFDWARP has the unique capability to simulate efficiently the non-neutral sheaths (near the electrodes) in coupled form with the quasi-neutral bulk MHD flow [8-11]. Step 3 is to link re-sults from LAURA and CFDWARP into POST2 for calculating entry trajectories and comparing MHD control results with other aerodynamic control strategies. The Program to Optimize Simulated Tra-jectories II (POST2) is a generalized point mass, discrete parameter targeting and optimization pro-gram. POST2 provides the capability to target and optimize point mass trajectories for multiple pow-ered or un-powered vehicles near an arbitrary rotat-ing, oblate planet [12]. Step 4: TPS sizing was per-formed using the Fully Implicit Ablation and Ther-mal-response code (FIAT) tool which computes the transient one-dimensional thermal response and surface thermochemistry of a multilayer stackup of thermal protection, bonding, and structural materi-als subject to aeroheating on one surface [13]. The sizing and margining methodology used was based on the approach documented by Mahzari and Milos [14] for the dual-layered heatshield for extreme entry environment technology (DL-HEEET) TPS concept. TPS analysis utilizes trajectory information from POST2. Using this step-wise plug and play MHD Aerocapture performance assessment process, our analysis targets a Neptune aerocapture trajectory that will place the spacecraft in an observation orbit for Triton. [15]. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) control of a 4.5-meter diameter MSL-style capsule resulted in TPS mass savings of nearly 2000 kg when using an MHD system mass of under 200 kg. The flight path for a vehicle using the MHD control strategy has a much lower heat rate and heat load compared to the conventional aerodynamic aerocapture strategies known as bank angle con-trolled (BAC) and direct force controlled (DFC). Both BAC and DFC have heat rates significantly greater than 1500 W/cm2 typically used as an upper limit for PICA. Thus, DL-HEEET TPS concept was required for the BAC and DFC control strategies. However, considering the more benign environ-ments for the MHD case, additional TPS concepts with improved mass efficiency were also assessed. PICA was considered for the MHD controlled strat-egy since the maximum heat rate was well within the limits (<1500 W/cm2) of PICA. TPS sizing re-sulted in a significant mass reduction. The PICA layer for this sizing case was about 7.8 cm. As a point of reference, the Mars 2020 mission, which used this same PICA concept, had a PICA thickness of 3.18 cm [16]. The trajectories used for the TPS sizing originat-ed from the POST2 simulations. The current, I, to an electromagnet configuration can be manipulated to allow for active control of the vehicle. Manipula-tion of the current, I, changes the magnetic field, B, which affects the Lorentz force and therefore the MHD drag force on the vehicle. Our analysis in-cluded both open-loop and close-loop control. Closed-loop control will enable improved overall performance when taking into account mission level uncertainties, such as interplanetary delivery errors and atmospheric modeling uncertainties. The open-loop and closed-loop MHD control cases do not dip as deep into the atmosphere as the aerodynamic cases. Three types of aerodynamic-only approach-es are investigated: bank angle modulation (BAM), director force control (DFC), and Drag Modulated. BAM and DFC make use of vehicle aerodynamic angles to steer the vehicle. Thus, changing the aer-odynamic forces acting on the vehicle for control, aerodynamic drag modulated case requires a vary-ing drag area to modulate the drag force. The MHD drag modulated case modulates MHD generated drag force that adds to the aerodynamic drag. This higher atmospheric activation of drag forces by the MHD patch results in significantly less heat flux on the vehicle. The MHD technology will enable shorter cruise times and deceleration of larger payloads for increasing the capacity for science at the Ice Giants or for returning astronauts to Earth from cislunar space or from Mars. The purpose of this presentation is to provide more details about this work and to highlight plans for further research and development including a flight demonstration.

R. W. Moses↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parallax-corrected VISST-derived pixel-level products from satellite GOES-16

The NASA Langley group led by William Smith produced GOES-16 satellite cloud retrievals over an approximate 10 by 10 degree region over the CACTI field campaign location. These retrievals are described here: https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/vaps/visst and are available for download here . They use algorithms historically called VISST that are now referred to as SatCORPS. More information can be found in Trepte et al. (2019), Minnis et al. (2021), and Yost et al. (2021). If using this dataset, please cite these references, the CACTI VISST dataset DOI found at the download link above, and this dataset’s DOI. The CACTI VISST pixel-level retrievals are on a 2 km spatial grid and available every 15 minutes (every 10 minutes late in the campaign), producing 21,765 files for the entire field campaign between October 2018 and April 2019. They are not corrected for parallax error, which is an offset in the actual geographical location of a cloud above the surface due to the satellite viewing the cloud partly from the side off nadir. This dataset applies a correction for parallax using the location relative to the satellite and the retrieved cloud top height above the surface, which allows the dataset to be geo-located with surface-based observations. The parallax correction for each location depends on the longitude, latitude and cloud top height above ground level (AGL) for that longitude and latitude in the original VISST files. The cloud top height AGL requires first computing the surface elevation at each VISST grid point. Data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Map Version 3 at 30-m resolution is projected onto the VISST grid using conservative coarsening (conserving surface elevation) in the xESMF Python package. The surface elevation is then subtracted from the VISST-retrieved cloud top height above mean sea level. These cloud top heights AGL are then combined with longitude and latitude to estimate the latitude and longitude corrections. Due to variability in cloud top height, the parallax shifts produce an irregular grid of values since higher cloud tops are shifted further than lower cloud tops. A ball tree-based neighbor search with Haversine distance is performed using the Python-based scikit-learn library to find the nearest VISST grid point to each parallax correction-shifted point. The data value of the shifted point is then assigned to that VISST grid point. In this manner, the irregular geographical shifts to correct for parallax are projected back to the rectilinear VISST grid. Because relatively higher clouds should obscure lower clouds, the variable values for the highest cloud top are preferentially chosen if two or more values are assigned to a grid point. The parallax correction should be viewed as an improved but still imperfect estimation of the cloud top locations, largely because the cloud top height is an imperfect retrieval. Please see the attached README document for further information. Users are encouraged to contact the authors with any additional questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mesoscale Organization in Cumulus-Coupled Stratocumulus

Marine cloud systems cover a substantial portion of the world’s oceans. Most of these clouds form relatively close to the ocean surface, typically within one to two kilometers, a region referred to by meteorologists as the marine boundary layer. They are composed predominantly of liquid water, although ice particles can occur in mid- and high-latitude marine clouds during winter. In satellite imagery, these clouds appear bright against the darker ocean surface below, reflecting a large fraction of incoming sunlight back into space that would otherwise warm the ocean. Because marine boundary layer clouds cover such an extensive area of the ocean, they exert a significant influence on Earth’s overall transfer of solar energy absorbed by the surface and thermal energy emitted to space, a balance known as the planetary radiation budget. Marine boundary layer clouds are typically thin, and their formation and dissipation depend on a delicate balance between processes acting at the ocean surface below and the warm, dry air above. They are notoriously difficult to simulate accurately in weather forecast models, which often produce too few marine low clouds in midlatitudes and clouds in tropical regions that are excessively bright, meaning they reflect too much solar radiation. The marine boundary layer is frequently characterized by widespread overcast cloud cover that often transitions from a continuous, single-layer deck to more broken cloud fields toward the tropics. These transitions typically proceed through an intermediate stage in which shallow, broken clouds form beneath the overlying stratiform cloud deck. Once broken clouds develop below the overcast, they frequently self-organize into cloud clusters known as marine boundary layer convective complexes (MBLCCs), although the mechanisms governing the formation and organization of MBLCCs remain poorly understood. Accurately representing these transitions in long-range weather forecast models is essential because they influence the properties of air masses advected over the continental United States and Europe, and they become increasingly important for forecasts on seasonal and longer timescales. We employed two complementary approaches to investigate the processes controlling MBLCCs and their impact on marine cloud cover. Long-term observations from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Observatory provided a unique dataset that allowed us to characterize fundamental properties of MBLCCs, including their typical size and frequency of occurrence. These observations were combined with high-resolution numerical simulations performed on supercomputers to examine the evolution of MBLCCs during cold-air outbreaks over the ENA region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological constraints from the Planck cluster catalogue with DES shear profiles and Chandra observations

We present cosmological constraints from the Planck PSZ2 cosmological cluster sample, using weak-lensing shear profiles from Dark Energy Survey (DES) data and X-ray observations from the Chandra telescope for the mass calibration. We compute hydrostatic mass estimates for all clusters in the PSZ2 sample with a scaling relation between their Sunyaev-Zeldovich signal and X-ray derived hydrostatic mass, calibrated with the Chandra data. We introduce a method to correct these masses with a hydrostatic mass bias using shear profiles from wide-field galaxy surveys. We simultaneously fit the number counts of the PSZ2 sample and the mass calibration with the DES data, finding $Ω_\text{m}=0.312^{+0.018}_{-0.024}$, $σ_8=0.777\pm 0.024$, $S_8\equiv σ_8 \sqrt{Ω_\text{m} / 0.3}=0.791^{+0.023}_{-0.021}$, and $(1-b)=0.844^{+0.055}_{-0.062}$ for our baseline analysis when combined with BAO data. When considering a hydrostatic mass bias evolving with mass, we find $Ω_\text{m}=0.353^{+0.025}_{-0.031}$, $σ_8=0.751\pm 0.023$, and $S_8=0.814^{+0.019}_{-0.020}$. We verify the robustness of our results by exploring a variety of analysis settings, with a particular focus on the definition of the halo centre used for the extraction of shear profiles. We compare our results with a number of other analyses, in particular two recent analyses of cluster samples obtained from SPT and eROSITA data that share the same mass calibration data set. We find that our results are in overall agreement with most late-time probes, in very mild tension with CMB results (1.6$σ$), and in significant tension with results from eROSITA clusters (2.9$σ$). We confirm that our mass calibration is consistent with the eROSITA analysis by comparing masses for clusters present in both Planck and eROSITA samples, eliminating it as a potential cause of tension.

Aymerich, G. [Orsay, IAS; AIM, Saclay] (ORCID:0009↗
DOE OSTI2025

Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparision Project (WrPMIP): Pan-Arctic Perturbation Warming Simulations

Title: Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparision Project (WrPMIP): Pan-Arctic Perturbation Warming Simulations Description: WrPMIP Pan-Arctic simulations including historial baseline and two warming simulations. Models were perturbed similarly to known experimental warming trials that have been implemented across the Pan-Arctic over the last several decades. More information about the dataset can be found at the following links: https://warmingpermafrost.nau.edu/ The dataset is available at: https://esgf-node.ornl.gov/search/project=WrPMIP&mip_era=CMIP6&activity_id=WrPMIP

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI peculiar velocity survey – Fundamental Plane

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) peculiar velocity survey aims to measure the peculiar velocities of early- and late-type galaxies within the DESI footprint using both the Fundamental Plane and optical Tully–Fisher relations. Direct measurements of peculiar velocities can significantly improve constraints on the growth rate of structure, reducing uncertainty by a factor of approximately 2.5 at redshift 0.1 compared to the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey’s redshift space distortion measurements alone. We assess the quality of stellar velocity dispersion measurements from DESI spectroscopic data. These measurements, along with photometric data from the Legacy Survey, establish the Fundamental Plane relation and determine distances and peculiar velocities of early-type galaxies. During survey validation, we obtain spectra for 6698 unique early-type galaxies, up to a photometric redshift of 0.15. 64 per cent of observed galaxies (4267) have relative velocity dispersion errors below 10 per cent. This percentage increases to 75 per cent if we restrict our sample to galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts below 0.1. We use the measured central velocity dispersion, along with photometry from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys, to fit the Fundamental Plane parameters using a 3D Gaussian maximum likelihood algorithm that accounts for measurement uncertainties and selection cuts. In addition, we conduct zero-point calibration using the absolute distance measurements to the Coma cluster, leading to a value of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 76.05 ± 0.35 (statistical) ±0.49 (systematic Fundamental Plane) ±4.86 (statistical due to calibration) km s –1 Mpc –1 ⁠. This H 0 value is within 2σ of Planck cosmic microwave background results and within 1σ of other low-redshift distance indicator-based measurements.

cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Behavior of Natural Seep Vents: Analysis of Field and Laboratory Observations and Modeling (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

In this project, we have analyzed data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in a high pressure water tunnel (HPWT) and data from two research cruises to natural seeps in the Gulf of Mexico to adapt and validate a numerical model to predict the dynamics of natural seeps in the deep oceans. The HPWT data include video observations of the shrinkage rate of individual methane and natural gas bubbles under simulated deep-water conditions. Field data were collected during two cruises by the Gulf Integrated Spill Research (GISR) Consortium led by Texas A&M University and funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI). These data included in situ observations from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) of gas bubbles at two natural seep sites in the Gulf and acoustic observations of the natural seep bubble flares in the ocean water column. The acoustic data were from multibeam echosounders, one mounted in a forward-looking orientation on the ROV and another mounted down-looking in the haul of the ship. All of these laboratory and field data were focused on the dynamics of natural gas bubbles at temperatures and pressures favorable for clathrate hydrate formation between the gas and water. Our analyses of this data focused on understanding the mechanisms responsible for gas bubble dissolution within the hydrate stability zone (HSZ) of the oceans. Ice-like hydrate shells may form on the bubble-water interface under these conditions, and it was unknown how this might affect the mass transfer of gas into the ocean. We were able to extract bubble shrinkage rates from the HPWT datasets. Using this data we determined that mass transfer coefficients with and without a hydrate shell match empirical values for bubbles in contaminated systems (so-called dirty bubbles contaminated by naturally occurring surfactants). We also showed that free gas, and not gas hydrate, is the dominant dissolving phase when the hydrate sub-cooling is below 11 degree Celsius (temperature difference between hydrate the hydrate formation temperature and ambient temperator) or the pressure is reducing as bubbles rise through the ocean water column. Using this mass transfer model, our numerical model of bubble dissolution matched the over 200 HPWT experiments with an average error of 10% for predicting the bubble size at the end of an experiment. From field data in the literature, we also observed that gas bubbles dissolve faster when they are initially released, following mass transfer coefficients for so-called clean-bubbles (those not yet contaminated by surfactants). Shortly after release within the HSZ, a hydrate shell forms on the bubble-water interface, and the mass transfer reduces to rates matching those of dirty bubbles. We correlated this transition time from clean to dirty bubble behavior with the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate sub-cooling. With this model for hydrate formation time and using the mass transfer coefficients deduced from the HPWT data, we validated our numerical model for predicting the rise heights of natural seep flares in the oceans. Flare heights are commonly observed in haul-mounted acoustic multibeam data. The numerical model predicts bubbles to rise high in the ocean water column owing to the slower mass transfer rates for dirty bubbles that accompany the majority of their rise time. We found that the numerical model predictions matched the observed flare heights within 5% to 10% accuracy when we compared the rise heights of the largest bubbles released from the seafloor with the bubbles acoustically visible in the multibeam data. Bubbles become acoustically transparent as they shrink to sizes of order 1 mm in diameter for the multibeam frequencies used in the field. The forward-looking multibeam on the ROV also provided data on the lateral spreading of bubbles in natural seep flares. Our analysis of this data showed that spreading follows a diffusion process, with the effective diffusivity correlating with the wobbling length scale of these ellipsoidal bubbles. When we apply this diffusivity in a random displacement model of bubble spreading, our numerical simulations match closely the lateral spread observed by the M3 in the ocean water column. Finally, we compared the seep model predictions for the acoustic properties of these natural seep plumes with that observed by the acoustic instruments in the field. The M3 and EM 302 observations were converted to relative values of target strength using a calibration we obtained in the laboratory for the M3 and using an algorithm from the manufacturer for the EM 302. Comparing the numerical seep model to these data, we obtain good agreement over the whole height of rise of these bubble flares. This further validates the numerical model. Overall, our validated seep model captures the key dynamics of gas bubbles released from natural seeps in the oceans and helps to predict the fate of methane in the water column.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark energy survey year 3 results: Cosmological constraints from cluster abundances, weak lensing, and galaxy clustering

Galaxy clusters provide a unique probe of the late-time cosmic structure and serve as a powerful independent test of the Λ⁢CDM model. This work presents the first set of cosmological constraints derived with ∼16,000 optically selected redMaPPer clusters across nearly 5000 deg 2 using DES year 3 datasets. Our analysis leverages a consistent modeling framework for galaxy cluster cosmology and DES-Y3 joint analyses of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (3 × 2⁢pt), ensuring direct comparability with the DES-Y3 3 × 2⁢pt analysis. Here, we obtain constraints of 𝑆 8 = 0.864 ± 0.035 and Ω m = $0.26⁢5^{+0.019}_{−0.031}$ from the cluster-based data vector. We find that cluster constraints and 3 × 2⁢pt constraints are consistent under the Λ⁢CDM model with a posterior predictive distribution (PPD) value of 0.53. The consistency between clusters and 3 × 2⁢pt provides a stringent test of Λ⁢CDM across different mass and spatial scales. Jointly analyzing clusters with 3 × 2⁢pt further improves cosmological constraints, yielding 𝑆 8 = $0.81⁢1^{+0.022}_{−0.020}$ and Ω m = $0.29⁢4^{+0.022}_{−0.033}$, a 24% improvement in the Ω m − 𝑆 8 figure of merit over 3 × 2⁢pt alone. Moreover, we find no significant deviation from the Planck CMB constraints with a probability to exceed (PTE) value of 0.6, significantly reducing previous 𝑆 8 tension claims. Finally, combining DES 3 × 2⁢pt, DES clusters, and Planck CMB places an upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses of ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.26 eV at 95% confidence under the Λ⁢CDM model. These results establish optically selected clusters as a key cosmological probe and pave the way for cluster-based analyses in upcoming stage-IV surveys such as LSST, Euclid, and Roman.

Abbott, T. M. C. [NSF’s National Optical-Infrared ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing the DES-SN5YR and Pantheon+ SN cosmology analyses: investigation based on ‘evolving dark energy or supernovae systematics’?

Recent cosmological analyses measuring distances of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) have all given similar hints at time-evolving dark energy. To examine whether underestimated SN Ia systematics might be driving these results, Efstathiou (2025) compared overlapping SN events between Pantheon+ and DES-SN5YR (20 per cent SNe are in common), and reported evidence for an $\sim$0.04 mag offset between the low- and high-redshift distance measurements of this subsample of events. If this offset is arbitrarily subtracted from the entire DES-SN5YR sample, the preference for evolving dark energy is reduced. In this paper, we show that this offset is mostly due to different corrections for Malmquist bias between the two samples; therefore, an object-to-object comparison can be misleading. Malmquist bias corrections differ between the two analyses for several reasons. First, DES-SN5YR used an improved model of SN Ia luminosity scatter compared to Pantheon+ but the associated scatter-model uncertainties are included in the error budget. Secondly, improvements in host mass estimates in DES-SN5YR also affected SN standardized magnitudes and their bias corrections. Thirdly, and most importantly, the selection functions of the two compilations are significantly different, hence the inferred Malmquist bias corrections. Even if the original scatter model and host properties from Pantheon+ are used instead, the evidence for evolving dark energy from CMB, DESI BAO Year 1 and DES-SN5YR is only reduced from 3.9$\sigma$ to 3.3$\sigma$, consistent with the error budget. Finally, in this investigation, we identify an underestimated systematic uncertainty related to host galaxy property uncertainties, which could increase the final DES-SN5YR error budget by 3 per cent. In conclusion, we confirm the validity of the published DES-SN5YR results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗