Experimental Covariance Determination for Integral Critical Experiments: The Case Study of TEX-Chlorine and TEX-HEU
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Nuclear science and engineering↗
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Advanced Transmission Technologies – GETs and HPCs Session 2: Advanced Power Flow Control and Transmission Topology Optimization
The INL TADA GETs Cohort Session 2, held on November 7, 2025, conducted in collaboration with ScottMadden, focused on two core Advanced Transmission Technologies (ATTs): Advanced Power Flow Control (APFC) and Transmission Topology Optimization (TTO). These technologies are pivotal in enhancing grid flexibility, reliability, and cybersecurity resilience. APFC, particularly through modular FACTS devices like Modular Static Synchronous Series Compensators (M-SSSCs), enables dynamic voltage injection to reroute power flows. The session highlighted the deployment benefits of APFC, such as rapid installation, minimal civil works, and re-deployability. Regulatory drivers like FERC Order 2023 mandate the inclusion of Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs) in interconnection studies. Case studies from Central Hudson, CAISO, and National Grid (UK) demonstrated APFC’s effectiveness in congestion relief and cost savings. The session also addressed cybersecurity concerns, including firmware vulnerabilities, SCADA integration risks, and supply chain dependencies. Participants engaged in interactive exercises to rank cybersecurity and supply chain risks, emphasizing the need for robust digital assurance strategies. TTO involves software-based reconfiguration of transmission networks to optimize power flow without new infrastructure. The session showcased its operational value, with examples from SPP, PJM, and MISO showing significant congestion cost reductions. Cybersecurity vulnerabilities were discussed, particularly in API security and software supply chains, referencing incidents like SolarWinds and attacks on Danish utilities. Digital assurance exercises explored worst-case scenarios, attack paths, and mitigation responsibilities between vendors and utilities. Reliability challenges such as algorithm stability, vendor dependency, and operator trust were also examined. Cross-cutting themes emphasized the importance of digital assurance tools, including Software Bills of Materials (SBOMs) and hardware-in-loop testing. Human performance, training, and operational confidence were identified as critical enablers of technology adoption. The session concluded with a preview of Session 3, which will focus on High Performance Conductors (HPCs) and risk-based cybersecurity tools. Session 2 of 3.
24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Mixed-Integer Linear Programming Formulation with Embedded Machine Learning Surrogates for the Design of Chemical Process Families
In previous work, we introduced process family design. The main idea is to design a platform of common elements, and, allowing us to capture additional cost savings, simultaneously design a family of processes, and reducing both engineering and deployment timelines. We formulate this as an optimization problem, specifically a nonlinear generalized disjunctive program (GDP). We have proposed two approaches for reformulating and solving this problem: one based on full-discretization of the design space and one that uses Machine Learning (ML) surrogates to replace the nonlinear process models. Using ML surrogates to predict required system costs and performance indicators allows us to reformulate the nonlinearities in the GDP generate an efficient MILP formulation. In this work, we apply the ML surrogate approach to two case studies. One case study involves designing a family of carbon capture systems to cover a set of different flue gas flow rates and inlet CO 2 concentrations, where we consider the absorber and stripper as common unit module types. The second case study focuses on a water-desalination process, where we design a family of these processes for a variety of salt concentrations and flow rates. In both of these case studies, we demonstrate a scalable optimization approach that enables the design of multiple processes simultaneously, reducing the time-to-market and overall costs by maximizing the cost savings due to both economies of scale and economies of numbers.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Causal mediation analysis in nested case-control studies using conditional logistic regression
Not provided.
Mathematical & Computational Biology↗
Risk Ratio and Risk Difference Estimation in Case-cohort Studies
Background: In case-cohort studies with binary outcomes, ordinary logistic regression analyses have been widely used because of their computational simplicity. However, the resultant odds ratio estimates cannot be interpreted as relative risk measures unless the event rate is low. The risk ratio and risk difference are more favorable outcome measures that are directly interpreted as effect measures without the rare disease assumption. Methods: We provide pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods for estimating risk ratios and risk differences in analyses of case-cohort studies. These multivariate regression models are fitted by weighting the inverses of sampling probabilities. Also, the precisions of the risk ratio and risk difference estimators can be improved using auxiliary variable information, specifically by adapting the calibrated or estimated weights, which are readily measured on all samples from the whole cohort. Finally, we provide computational code in R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) that can easily perform these methods. Results: Through numerical analyses of artificially simulated data and the National Wilms Tumor Study data, accurate risk ratio and risk difference estimates were obtained using the pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods. Also, using the auxiliary variable information from the whole cohort, precisions of these estimators were markedly improved. Conclusion: The ordinary logistic regression analyses may provide uninterpretable effect measure estimates, and the risk ratio and risk difference estimation methods are effective alternative approaches for case-cohort studies. These methods are especially recommended under situations in which the event rate is not low.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Evolutionary Game Dynamics between Distributed Energy Resources and Microgrid Operator: Balancing Act for Power Factor Improvement
This article investigates the intricate dynamics between Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and the Microgrid Operator (MGO) within a microgrid interconnected with the main grid. Employing an evolutionary game framework, the study scrutinizes the strategic evolution of DERs’ decision-making processes in their interactions with the MGO. Modeled as an evolutionary game, these interactions encapsulate the strategies adopted by DERs, resulting in stable equilibrium strategies over time. Motivated by direct benefits linked to increased active power production, DERs strive to sell all available power, while the MGO focuses on optimizing the microgrid’s overall performance. The study assesses the microgrid’s performance in terms of its power factor, emphasizing the strategic balance DERs must achieve in their active power generation to avoid penalization. This penalization results in decreased individual utility for DERs due to the overall power factor decrease resulting from their prioritization of active power generation. Additionally, the diminished overall power factor implies a decrease in MGO utility. The individual utility of each DER is further influenced by the strategies adopted by other DERs, impacting the penalization factor. Leveraging a modified IEEE 13-node distribution microgrid consisting of three DERs, the study presents case studies encompassing both cooperative and non-cooperative evolutionary game scenarios. These case studies illuminate the intricacies of interactions and the resulting equilibrium outcomes.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Improving Detection of Disease Re-emergence Using a Web-Based Tool (RED Alert): Design and Case Analysis Study
Background: Currently, the identification of infectious disease re-emergence is performed without describing specific quantitative criteria that can be used to identify re-emergence events consistently. This practice may lead to ineffective mitigation. In addition, identification of factors contributing to local disease re-emergence and assessment of global disease re-emergence require access to data about disease incidence and a large number of factors at the local level for the entire world. This paper presents Re-emerging Disease Alert (RED Alert), a web-based tool designed to help public health officials detect and understand infectious disease re-emergence. Objective: Our objective is to bring together a variety of disease-related data and analytics needed to help public health analysts answer the following 3 primary questions for detecting and understanding disease re-emergence: Is there a potential disease re-emergence at the local (country) level? What are the potential contributing factors for this re-emergence? Is there a potential for global re-emergence? Methods: We collected and cleaned disease-related data (eg, case counts, vaccination rates, and indicators related to disease transmission) from several data sources including the World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), World Bank, and Gideon. We combined these data with machine learning and visual analytics into a tool called RED Alert to detect re-emergence for the following 4 diseases: measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever. We evaluated the performance of the machine learning models for re-emergence detection and reviewed the output of the tool through a number of case studies. Results: Our supervised learning models were able to identify 82%-90% of the local re-emergence events, although with 18%-31% (except 46% for dengue) false positives. This is consistent with our goal of identifying all possible re-emergences while allowing some false positives. The review of the web-based tool through case studies showed that local re-emergence detection was possible and that the tool provided actionable information about potential factors contributing to the local disease re-emergence and trends in global disease re-emergence. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first tool that focuses specifically on disease re-emergence and addresses the important challenges mentioned above.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Innovations in Sustainable Passive Wastewater Treatment - 20236
Sustainable water treatment systems, engineered to mimic natural processes and utilize natural materials, yield economic and environmental benefits through reductions in long term operational inputs, including: power, chemicals, and labor. Golder is an industry leader in the development and implementation of sustainable technologies at operating and closed mines. We continue to innovate these technologies and customize solutions to meet client needs by applying past experience and focused research. Sustainable (or passive) water treatment systems include ponds, wetlands, flow-through natural media beds, and limestone drains. These systems can blend in with a natural environment, are highly cost-effective for long-term water treatment, and can outcompete traditional active treatment technologies. Application of sustainable technologies relative to active technologies can be influenced by the influent water matrix, effluent limitations, flow rate of water requiring treatment, and available land area. In this presentation, four Golder-developed systems are reviewed as case studies, demonstrating our continued progressive approach to advancing sustainable water treatment technologies to meet industry needs. These case studies focus on design innovations and operational performance from data collected from the operational systems. Resources (power, chemicals, labor) required for the operation of each case study are compared with those that would be required for operation of their active treatment technology alternatives. - Case Study 1 presents an anaerobic biochemical reactor (BCR), a technology typically implemented for metals treatment and acid neutralization, for the treatment of sulfate to low concentrations (<250 mg/L). Active treatment via reverse osmosis (RO) membrane filtration is typically required for treatment of sulfate to similar concentrations, this innovation provides potential for sustainable treatment to replace the need for energy, chemical, labor, and waste (brine) intensive RO treatment for specific applications. Magnetite waste rock materials from the site were upcycled for use in this system to provide sequestration of the sulfide generated in the BCR. - Case Study 2 examines another novel application of the conventional BCR, modified for the removal of radionuclides and metals (uranium, radium, and selenium) at a closed uranium mine. - Case Study 3 presents implementation of sustainable treatment for mine drain water from a historic mine site, now a state park with around 100,000 visitors per year. The system includes a pond, wetland, and manganese removal bed surrounded by public trails designed to maintain the character of the park. The system treats for arsenic, iron, and manganese at relatively high flows (up to 1,200 gpm), with large seasonal fluctuations in flow and quality. - Case Study 4 is a unique project for which Golder is currently designing a sustainable treatment system, with no energy input, to treat nitrate in mine water post-closure at a site near the arctic circle. In this unprecedented application, climate, management of freshet, and space availability presented substantial technical challenges. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Hydrogen technology for maritime applications: A review of challenges, opportunities, and lessons from the port authority of New York and New Jersey
The maritime industry faces increasing demand for energy security, operational efficiency, and environmental performance improvements. Hydrogen technology, considered a potential energy carrier, is being explored for port operations, including cargo-handling equipment, heavy-duty vehicles, and stationary power systems. This review evaluates the feasibility, challenges, and potential benefits of hydrogen integration within port infrastructure, using the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey as a representative case study. Drawing on case studies, technical reports, and policy analyses, this study examines the infrastructural, regulatory, and operational factors influencing large-scale deployment, emphasizing supply chain development, storage requirements, and refueling infrastructure. By situating hydrogen within broader maritime energy transition efforts, this review provides an evidence-based assessment of its role in port operations and energy diversification strategies. In conclusion, the findings outline key barriers to adoption and emphasize the need for coordinated efforts among stakeholders to determine hydrogen's role alongside other emerging energy technologies.
08 HYDROGEN↗
General Multifidelity Surrogate Models: Framework and Active-Learning Strategies for Efficient Rare Event Simulation
Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. Here, this paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Quantitative Risk Assessment for Fuel Cell Electric Bus Hydrogen Storage and Refueling Facility
It is necessary to understand the safety implications and risk mitigation options for fuel cell electric bus fleet deployment, especially for related facilities responsible for operations such as production, storage, compression, and dispensing of hydrogen for use by the buses. In this report, we present a quantitative risk assessment for a potential fuel cell electric bus fleet that was motivated by efforts to improve resilience at the Portland International Airport but can be applicable to a range of hydrogen case studies and use cases. We estimated risk for a facility that produces, stores, compresses, and dispenses hydrogen for the fleet of buses, with a focus on individual risk to people in terms of annual frequency of fatality. We considered the frequency of hydrogen leaks that could result in harmful physical outcomes like jet fires or explosions, and the consequences of those outcomes for people. We created customized fault trees to calculate the frequencies of different sizes of leaks and event sequence diagrams to calculate ignition probabilities for the various leak sizes. We also leveraged the HyRAM+ toolkit to use these inputs to calculate overall risk for the facility, which we separated into one section responsible for producing, storing, and compressing hydrogen, and one section responsible for dispensing the hydrogen to the buses. We found that the dispensing area seemed to have a higher risk than the production/storage/compression area of the facility, largely because of the inclusion of a component with a high leak frequency (the heat exchanger used to cool the hydrogen before entering the vehicle, to prevent overheating and expansion of hydrogen in the onboard tank). For the example production and refueling facility we evaluated and the data we used for the analysis, the leak frequency had a larger impact on the risk differences between the two sections on the facility, compared to the physical outcome consequence, which was slightly different due to the varying fuel conditions, but not substantially different. Actions can be taken to prevent these hazards (e.g., lowering leak frequencies in system components) or to mitigate the consequences if they do occur (e.g., installing barriers to protect people if ignition events occur). The choice of which actions to take depends not only on safety considerations but also on space, time, staffing, feasibility, and financial constraints. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment approach can help understand relative risk contributions from different components, leak sizes, consequences, and human actions, to prioritize risk reduction strategies and balance these parameters. The outcomes of this report may be useful for a variety of stakeholders working in the hydrogen, transportation, vehicle, and aviation sector, including those responsible for aspects like facility design, operations, and regulations. There is not a single value of risk that determines whether a hypothetical system is “safe” or not. The insights about risk mitigations may be leveraged, and the quantitative risk assessment approach can be applied to other case studies to understand risk priorities and contributions specific to different FCEB and hydrogen facility uses.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Analyzing Impact of Distributed PV Generation on Integrated Transmission & Distribution System Voltage Stability—A Graph Trace Analysis Based Approach
The use of a Graph Trace Analysis (GTA)-based power flow for analyzing the voltage stability of integrated Transmission and Distribution (T&D) networks is discussed in the context of distributed Photovoltaic (PV) generation. The voltage stability of lines and the load carrying capability of buses is analyzed at various PV penetration levels. It is shown that as the PV generation levels increase, an increase in the steady state voltage stability of the system is observed. Moreover, within certain regions of stability margin changes, changes in voltage stability margins of transmission lines are shown to be linearly related to changes in the loading of the lines. Two case studies are presented, where one case study involves a model with eight voltage levels and 784,000 nodes. In one case study, a voltage-stability heat map is used to demonstrate the identification of weak lines and buses.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DayCent data and results for "Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels"
DayCent data and results for:J. L. Field, T. L. Richard, E. A. Smithwick, H. Cai, M. S. Laser, D. S. LeBauer, S. P. Long, K. Paustian, Z. Qin, J. J. Sheehan, P. Smith, M. Q. Wang, L. R. Lynd, Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920877117 This zip file contains a UNIX-format DayCent model executable, input files, automation code, and associated directory structure necessary to re-produce the DayCent analysis underlying the manuscript. The main script 'autodaycent.py' (written for Python 2.7) opens an interactive command line routine that facilitates:* Calibrating the DayCent pine growth model.* Initializing DayCent for a set of case studies sites.* Executing an ensemble of model runs representing case study site reforestation, grassland restoration, or conversion to switchgrass cultivation. * Results analysis & generation of manuscript Fig. 3. Note that the interactive analysis code requires that all input files to be contained in the directory structure as uploaded, without modification. Executable versions of the DayCent model (https://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/daycent/) compatible with other operating systems are available upon request.Please send questions/comments to John.L.Field@gmail.com
Agro-ecosystem function and prediction↗
Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios
T. Biosphere Futures (https://biospherefutures.net/) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans and their supporting ecosystems. It provides access to a globally diverse collection of case studies that includes most ecosystems and regions, enabling exploration of the multifaceted ways in which the future might unfold. Together, the case studies illuminate the diversity and plurality of people’s expectations and aspirations for the future. The objective of Biosphere Futures is to promote the use of scenarios for sustainable development of the biosphere and to foster a community of practice around social-ecological scenarios. We do so by facilitating the assessment, synthesis, and comparative analysis of scenario case studies, pointing to relevant resources, and by helping practitioners and researchers to disseminate and showcase their own work. This article begins by outlining the rationale behind the creation of the database, followed by an introduction to its functionality and the criteria employed for selecting case studies. Subsequently, we present a synthesis of the first 100 case studies included in the scenarios database, highlighting emerging patterns and identifying potential avenues for further research. Finally, given that broader utilization and contributions to the database will enhance the achievement of Biosphere Futures’ objectives, we invite the creators of social-ecological scenarios to contribute additional case studies. By expanding the database’s breadth and depth, we can collectively foster a more nuanced understanding of the possible trajectories of our biosphere and enable better decision making for sustainable development.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
An algorithm for detecting and quantifying disturbance and recovery in high-frequency time series
Determining when a disturbance has occurred, its severity, and when the system recovered, is important to numerous questions in the aquatic sciences. This problem can be conceptualized as the timing and degree of perturbation from a typical state, and when the system returns to that typical state. We present an algorithm for detecting disturbance and recovery designed for high-frequency time series, e.g., data produced by automated sampling devices in instrumented buoys and flux towers. The algorithm quantifies differences in the empirical cumulative distribution functions of moving windows over reference and evaluation periods, and is sensitive to changes in the mean, variance, and higher statistical moments. Tests on simulated data show it accurately identifies disturbance and recovery. Three case studies illustrate the application of our algorithm in different empirical settings. A case study on dissolved oxygen in a Florida, USA estuary following a hurricane identified the disturbance and recovery 73 d later. A case study on air temperature and net ecosystem exchange in the Florida everglades identified cold snaps coinciding with periods of reduced carbon uptake. A case study on rotifer abundance following zebra mussel invasion in the Hudson River, NY showed rotifer collapse following invasion and recovery over a decade later. Methods such as ours can improve understanding response to disturbance and facilitate comparative and synthetic study of disturbance impacts across ecosystems.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
An experimentally validated electro-thermal EV battery pack model incorporating cycle-life aging and cell-to-cell variations
Lithium-ion batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. To meet the power and energy demands of these applications battery packs are composed of hundreds to thousands of cells. The electrical and thermal interactions between cells introduce additional complexity in the pack dynamics. To capture these effects, a battery pack model composed of 192 cells based on a first-generation (2012) Nissan Leaf battery pack is developed in MATLAB/Simulink/Simscape. Here, with this model, we simulate the electrical dynamics (using a first-order equivalent-circuit model), the thermal dynamics (using a first-order lumped-parameter thermal model), and the aging dynamics (using a semi-empirical severity factor-based model) of every cell in the pack and we also create a pack thermal model that explicitly captures the heat exchange between the modules, and the cells contained within, during operation. The models are calibrated and validated, both at the cell and pack level, with experimental data. Two different case studies of this pack model are investigated. In the first case study, an initial, normally-distributed, cell-to-cell capacity variation is introduced and its effect on the pack voltage and module temperatures is studied. In the second case study, we deliberately insert cells with lower than nominal capacity into the pack and we investigate how this type of initial cell-to-cell capacity variation affects the pack’s ability to deliver energy over time. Finally, we also study how parallel-connected cells can reduce the effects of cell-to-cell variations at the expense of increased aging of the pack overall.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Arbitrage and Capacity Firming in Coordination with Day-Ahead Bidding of a Hybrid PV Plant
A hybrid PV plant (HPP) combines a photovoltaic (PV) plant with a battery energy storage system (BESS), which is considered a promising step towards the future of renewable power plants by the U.S. Department of Energy. When the renewable penetration reaches a significant level, a hybrid PV plant can bid in as a controllable thermal plant in the future electricity market. In this study, a bidding and BESS scheduling model is proposed for the HPP. The robust optimization (RO) technique has been utilized to identify the worst-case scenario of uncertainties during the bidding process. To address the overly conservative issue of the single-stage RO, we have decoupled the BESS schedule for arbitrage and PV capacity firming by a two-stage RO formulation. By comparing the output of single-stage RO and two-stage RO, the two-stage RO bids and schedules in a more aggressive manner, which increases the income of HPP. Also, the penalty of under-generation is considered in our model so that the day-ahead bidding decision and arbitrage schedules can be adjusted based on the potential UNDER-GENERATION penalty. Because the proposed model is non-convex and contains multi-stages, the Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm is applied to the model as the solution. The proposed model has shown better economic performance compared to a state-of-art single-stage bidding method in case studies.
BESS scheduling↗
Renewable Thermal Energy Systems Designed for Industrial Process Solutions in Multiple Industries
Industrial decarbonization is a key area that must be accelerated, to foster the removal of fossil fuels from the provision of heat, especially at low temperatures less than 300 degrees C. This paper looks at the results of two case studies for understanding the economics and potential for renewable thermal energy systems (RTES), particularly in hybrid configurations to provide industrial process heat (IPH). The first case study looks at heat pumps for district heating, and the second, the use of linear Fresnel collectors (LFCs) coupled with phase change material (PCM) thermal energy storage (TES) for direct steam generation (DSG). Using district heat as an input for the heat pump, three cases were run harvesting energy from ambient water (5 degrees C), sewage water (20 degrees C), and a solar collector (35 degrees C). Accounting for elevated costs of infrastructure for each heat source, the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of the first case study ranged from $4-$15 per million British Thermal Units (MMBTU). For the second case study modeling LFCs with PCM and TES, the results show that a LCOH of $9-$15 per MMBTU is possible, depending on the direct normal irradiance.
concentrated solar thermal↗