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At least 1,171 records · Page 65
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Online distributed price-based control of DR resources with competitive guarantees

Demand response (DR) of building HVAC load can provide crucial demand-side flexibility for the future smart grid. Compared to direct load control, price-based control can respect the customers’ autonomy and privacy. However, it is challenging for price-based control to attain provable performance guarantees under future uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a framework for a utility to perform price-based control of flexible building load within the utility’s service area, in order to attain competitive performance guarantees in terms of controlling the system peak demand under future uncertainty. By adopting a two-step approach, our online price-based control solution can attain a provable competitive ratio for all possible realizations within a given uncertainty set. Simulation experiments demonstrate that, with a robustification procedure, our solution can perform well not only for worst-case inputs, but also for average-case inputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

VERA Integration in the NEAMS Workbench

The Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) is a cutting edge simulation code suite used to solve complex multiphysics problems for nuclear reactors. VERA makes use of high performance computing (HPC) systems to solve large problems that were not historically tractable. While extensive work has been put into the usability of VERA, it still takes significant effort to build reactor models, ensure their correctness, properly execute the calculations, and conduct the necessary analysis of the results. This difficulty is common for many complex codes such as VERA. As part of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the NEAMS Workbench has been developed and maintained. The goal of the NEAMS Workbench is to provide a single interface with which to execute a wide variety of physics codes, from building the input models to analyzing the results. This document serves as a manual detailing the current integration of VERA with the NEAMS Workbench and a guide for configuring Workbench to allow remote execution of VERA.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards a Techno-Economic Analysis of PCM Integrated Hybrid HVAC Systems

Thermal end uses dominate building energy consumption and are a major driver of peak demand. As heating is electrified, peak electrical power required will surge, prompting a need for innovative HVAC system designs and controls.These designs must incorporate novel technologies at the component level and new integration techniques at the system level. One such possibility involves the addition of thermal energy storage (TES) in heating and cooling equipment using a phase change material (PCM) heat exchanger. Here, thermal energy storage via phase change can be used to shift the HVAC system loads to times of lower electricity cost, reduced carbon intensity, and greater energy efficiency. Most of the current utilization of PCM in buildings involves passive components. By actively controlling when heat is stored and released from PCM, we can optimize the building HVAC system to cost-effectively meet consumer needs with the flexibility to draw on renewable energy resources when they are abundant and available. While this combination of technologies is promising in theory, simulation-based evaluation of a prototype can be difficult due to the modeling requirements at the component level and the large number of possible configurations and operating modes at the system level. To conduct this evaluation, we use the Modelica language for modeling and simulation because it enables users to represent the important physics of the problem, interchange and rearrange components in an efficient manner, and implement a range of control configurations. In this work, we considered three case studies: a portable building, a large commercial retail store, and a multifamily residential apartment unit. Each of these employs a different system design, ranging from a single package vertical unit incorporating PCM to a central plant with independent heat pump, evaporative cooling, and thermal energy storage components. This paper describes the technologies in question, presents modeling at the component and system levels, and demonstrates building energy and demand charge cost savings with local time-of-use tariffs in a hot-dry climate.

Helmns, Dre↗
DOE OSTI2020

The reservoir network: A new network topology for district heating and cooling

Thermal district networks are effective solutions to substitute fossil fuels with renewable energy sources for heating and cooling. Moreover, thermal networking of buildings allows energy efficiency to be further increased. The waste heat from cooling can be reused for heating in thermal district systems. Because of bidirectional energy flows between prosumers, thermal networks require new hydraulic concepts. In this work, we present a novel network topology for simultaneous heating and cooling: the reservoir network. The reservoir network is robust in operation due to hydraulic decoupling of transfer stations, integrates heat sources and heat sinks at various temperature levels and is flexible in terms of network expansion. Furthermore, we used Modelica simulations to compare the new single-pipe reservoir network to a basecase double-pipe network, taking yearly demand profiles of different building types for heating and cooling. The electric energy consumed by the heat pumps and circulations pumps differs between the reservoir and base case networks by less than 1%. However, if the reservoir network is operated with constant instead of variable mass flow rate, the total electrical consumption can increase by 48% compared to the base case. As with any other network topology, the design and control of such networks is crucial to achieving energy efficient operation. Investment costs for piping and trenching depend on the district layout and dimensioning of the network. If a ring layout is applied in a district, the reservoir network with its single-pipe configuration is more economical than other topologies. For a linear layout, the piping costs are slightly higher for the reservoir network than for the base case because of larger pipe diameters.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Initial Development of Fusion Magnet Simulation Capabilities for Performance and Safety Evaluation Using the MOOSE Framework

Fusion energy holds the promise of being a transformative technology as a carbon-neutral, sustainable source of energy. Whole device modeling and the development of fusion digital twins will be increasingly important for emerging fusion device concepts at both national laboratories and within the commercial fusion industry. However, meeting the challenge of whole device modeling of fusion energy devices requires robust, multiphysics, multiscale modeling and simulation technologies capable of running on large-scale supercomputers. Detailed analysis of individual systems at-scale is also required to ensure safe and efficient operation as well as provide the safety basis for future device designs and licensing activities. In a tokamak, toroidal and poloidal magnets confine and shape the fusion plasma to promote the fusion reaction. High plasma temperatures and high magnetic field requirements in modern design concepts (leading to high amounts of energy stored within each magnet) impose electrical, thermal, and mechanical loads on the magnet components, which in turn impacts the safety considerations of the magnet and their supporting systems. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has a history of working in this space, including development and benchmarking of the Magnetic System Circuitry Analysis Program (MSCAP) and Magnet Arcing (MAGARC) codes to study magnet quench events; notably, MAGARC was used to study quenching during the ITER Engineering Design Activity. However, these legacy codes and capabilities are not parallel and scalable, and new tools are required for future advances in this area, which leads to the INL-developed Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. Developed originally for fission reactor systems under United States Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy modeling and simulation programs, the MOOSE framework has been well-suited to multiscale, multiphysics modeling and simulation needs for nuclear systems. The framework is open-source, well-tested, under continuous development and deployment, and developed to a Nuclear Quality Assurance, Level 1 software quality standard. MOOSE has also been used in the fusion space previously in several projects: INL’s Tritium Migration Analysis Program, Version 8 (TMAP8) for tritium migration, UK Atomic Energy Authority’s A Unified Resource for OpenMC (fusion) Reactor Applications (AURORA) code for fusion thermo-mechanical and neutronics analysis, and Argonne National Laboratory’s Cardinal for high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and neutronics. However, to model superconducting magnets, several MOOSE enhancements are required: additions to the current MOOSE electromagnetic capabilities, new material libraries for superconductors of interest (such as YBCO), as well as fusion-specific models for thermo-mechanics. This talk will discuss initial development activities to build these capabilities in MOOSE, focusing on initial validation and benchmarking activities. Proposed coupling workflows and future work to support the simulation of fusion magnets and magnet structural assemblies for performance and safety evaluation in MOOSE will also be discussed.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Roadmap for thermal property measurements of Molten Salt Reactor systems

Thermal properties of molten salts, both with and without fissile and fertile material, are fundamental to modeling and simulation that supports design, construction, operation, and accident progression evaluation of molten salt reactors. This roadmap provides guidance to the research community on the types and amounts of required data for base, or carrier, salt systems, recommends simulated burnup fuel salt compositions to evaluate, and provides a technical foundation for a focused salt property evaluation matrix. The property values generated from both computation and experimental methods are used to develop models that constitute the Molten Salt Thermal Properties Database (MSTDB). While the building blocks of MSTDB are fundamental in nature, its data facilitates constructing engineering models that allow stakeholders to investigate the behavior of specific compositions of interest and supports broader modeling and simulation of MSRs through coupling to multi-physics, multi-scale mass accountancy tools.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification and Validation of Two Hydrodynamic Methods for Simulations of High Energy Density Physics Problems

A 3D verification and validation suite of test problems is presented and used to evaluate hydrodynamic methods within a radiation hydrodynamics code, xRAGE. These test problems exercise different levels of complexity, building towards ICF problems which in addition to hydrodynamics also include three temperature plasma physics, thermal conduction, and radiation diffusion. Among the problems in the test suite are the Kidder ball problem, the Verney shell problem, and a 5-material compression problem, which exercise different purely hydrodynamic methods implemented within xRAGE. There is excellent agreement between 2D and 3D XRAGE simulation results and between the xRAGE results and the benchmark solutions. Two 3D ICF test problems are also presented, based on an OMEGA direct drive capsule experiment and on a NIF indirect drive capsule experiment. It is demonstrated that the newer unsplit hydrodynamic method in xRAGE produces more vorticity relative to the older default method. For the indirect drive capsule, the 3D simulations are in reasonable agreement with the experimental values of ion temperature and neutron production.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evidence of electron microbunching in laser-driven modulated downramp injection and prospects for beam-driven implementation

Plasma accelerators can generate high-energy, high-brightness electron beams over centimeter-scale distances, offering novel pathways to compact x-ray free-electron lasers. Generating beams pre-bunched at the desired radiation wavelength would significantly enhance longitudinal coherence and reduce saturation length. Plasma density-modulated downramp injection offers an in-situ way to generate such beams with nanometer-scale bunching. Here we report the first experimental evidence of this mechanism in a laser-driven wakefield accelerator, showing that modulated density downramps generate modulated electron energy spectra absent in unmodulated cases. Particle-in-cell simulations reproduce these observations and reveal bunching factors of 0.05 at 0.4 μm, with a compression factor of approximately 7. Building on this demonstration, we propose a beam-driven implementation for FACET-II to generate multi-GeV beams pre-bunched at hundreds of nanometers wavelength, with sub-micrometer emittance, kiloampere peak current, and sub-percent slice energy spread. Two-stage magnetic compression enables tunable bunching from optical to extreme ultraviolet wavelengths while achieving peak currents exceeding 100 kA. Coherent transition radiation calculations confirm diagnostic feasibility. This approach offers a promising path towards compact, high-energy pre-bunched electron sources for advanced photon science applications.

electron microbunching↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrification of residential and commercial buildings integrated with hybrid renewable energy systems: A techno-economic analysis

Here, this study assesses the techno-economic viability of city-scale building electrification, comparing a base case scenario with conventional HVAC systems to an electrified scenario with heat pump systems. EnergyPlus simulations reveal a 28% increase in annual electricity consumption in the electrified scenario, shifting the peak consumption from summer to winter with a 49% surge. Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are then evaluated using HOMER Pro, considering renewable penetration from 0% to 100%. The net present cost (NPC) of the base case and electrified scenarios range from $\$10.34$ to $\$24.38$ billion and $\$8.79$ to $\$50.31$ billion, respectively. Sensitivity analysis explores the impact of carbon tax, fuel price, and renewable subsidies on HRESs in the electrified scenario. Results indicate that applying a carbon tax up to $\$120$/tonne of CO 2 increases the optimum renewable fraction from 5% to 26%, while higher fuel prices and renewable subsidies further enhance the feasibility by shifting the optimum renewable fraction to 60% and 54%, respectively, demonstrating the interplay between economic factors and renewable integration in electrified urban contexts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

HED Hydrodynamics in the Common Modeling Framework

Within the Common Modeling Framework (CMF), the HED Hydrodynamics Project has implemented a common methodology, or "Authority", for modeling high energy density (HED) experiments by extending development of the Eulerian Applications Project code Authority, "EAPA," to include relevant physics models, customization tools and templates, and in situ and post-processing capabilities. Additionally, several models for small-scale HED experiments were successfully added to the CMF and simulations reproduce the results of preexisting, benchmarked input decks. We expect use of the CMF to improve our effectiveness in developing predictive capabilities for experiments ranging from small-scale planar single-interface, single-shock to multi-interface, multi-shock configurations and up through multi-shell inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. Additionally, this will strengthen our ability to design future targeted experiments. Using the CMF infrastructure and Authorities for HED modeling has three key impacts. First, it enables a version-controlled, pedigreed and archived base model for each experiment with tools that allow easy setup, execution and analysis of simulations to assess and/or expose sensitivities to various parameters. Second, having a common base set of inputs and physics definitions helps identify systematic differences between models in the codes and experimental data to support code validation, and build confidence in our predictive capabilities. Finally, designed to work in concert with multiple programs and projects including PEM, IC, OES, V&V and DSW, the CMF supports improved collaboration and integration through shared model definitions, data, simulations and results, enhancing the workflow required to underwrite the knowledge base and capabilities ultimately required for stockpile stewardship

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Formation and evolution of protostellar accretion discs – II. From 3D simulation to a simple semi-analytic model of Class 0/I discs

Here we use a 3D radiative non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic simulation to investigate the formation and evolution of a young protostellar disc from a magnetized pre-stellar core. The simulation covers the first ${\sim }10\, {\rm kyr}$ after protostar formation and shows a massive, weakly magnetized disc with radius that initially grows and then saturates at ${\sim }30\, {\rm au}$. The disc is gravitationally unstable with prominent large-amplitude spiral arms. We use our simulation results and a series of physical arguments to construct a predictive and quantitative physical picture of Class 0/I protostellar disc evolution from several aspects, including (i) the angular-momentum redistribution in the disc, self-regulated by gravitational instability to make most of the disc marginally unstable; (ii) the thermal profile of the disc, well-approximated by a balance between radiative cooling and accretion heating; and (iii) the magnetic-field strength and magnetic-braking rate inside the disc, regulated by non-ideal magnetic diffusion. Using these physical insights, we build a simple 1D semi-analytic model of disc evolution. We show that this 1D model, when coupled to a computationally inexpensive simulation for the evolution of the surrounding pseudo-disc, can be used reliably to predict disc evolution in the Class 0/I phase. The predicted long-term evolution of disc size, which saturates at ${\sim }30\, {\rm au}$ and eventually shrinks, is consistent with a recent observational survey of Class 0/I discs. Such hierarchical modelling of disc evolution circumvents the computational difficulty of tracing disc evolution through Class 0/I phase with direct, numerically converged simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low-order aquifer thermal energy storage model for geothermal system simulation

This paper presents a low-order aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) model for simulation of combined subsurface and above-surface energy systems. The model is included in the Modelica IBPSA Library, which is a free open-source library with basic models for building and district energy and control systems. The model uses a lumped-component method, in which the transient conductive-convective heat and mass transfer equation is radially discretized. To verify the accuracy of the model, we present an inter-model comparison from a simulation test suite. Results show that the Modelica ATES model is in good agreement, with a normalized mean bias error for yearly variation of aquifer temperatures of 1.6×10−2 and 9×10−5 at 1 m and 10 m distance from the well.

Maccarini, Alessandro↗
DOE OSTI2020

Elucidating the effect of preheating temperature on melt pool morphology variation in Inconel 718 laser powder bed fusion via simulation and experiment

In laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing, the mechanical performance, microstructure and defects of fabricated parts are closely associated with the melt pool morphology, e.g., its dimension and shape through the building process. Past studies have largely focused on how the process parameters such as laser power and scan speed affect melt pool characteristics. In this study, the melt pool morphology variation as a function of preheating temperature in the conduction, transition, and keyhole regimes and the underlying mechanisms in each regime are investigated through ex-situ sample characterization and computation thermal fluid dynamics (CtFD) simulation. Single tracks with different combinations of laser power and scan speed are deposited on an Inconel 718 bare plate preheated to a temperature range of 100–500 °C in the experiment. Significant changes are observed in melt pool morphology as a function of preheating temperature from optical measurements of melt track cross sections. The depth of melt pool in the three regimes increases monotonically with preheating temperature, e.g., at 500 °C, the experimental melt pool depth is increased by 49% in conduction regime, 34% in transition regime and 33% in keyhole regime, respectively, while the variation of melt pool width in each regime does not all follow an increasing trend but depends on the melt pool regimes. Melt pool width variation in the conduction and transition regimes is found to depend on the enhanced heat conduction directly related to temperature dependent thermal properties. Through validated CtFD simulations, it is found that in the keyhole regime the evaporation mass, recoil pressure, and laser drilling effect is enhanced with higher preheating temperature, which gives rise to a deeper melt pool. The simulations also reveal that preheating temperature significantly elongates the melt track length due to the increased flow rate and strong recoil pressure that accelerates the backward flow.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiphysics Simulation of the NASA SIRIUS-CAL Fuel Experiment in the Transient Test Reactor Using Griffin

After approximately 50 years, NASA is restarting efforts to develop nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) for interplanetary missions. Building upon nuclear engine tests performed from the late 1950s to the early 1970s, the present research and testing focuses on advanced materials and fabrication methods. A number of transient tests have been performed to evaluate materials performance under high-temperature, high-flux conditions, with several more experiments in the pipeline for future testing. The measured data obtained from those tests are being used to validate the Griffin reactor multiphysics code for this particular type of application. Griffin was developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) using the MOOSE framework. This article describes the simulation results of the SIRIUS-CAL calibration experiment in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT). SIRIUS-CAL was the first transient test conducted on NASA fuels, and although the test was performed with a relatively low core peak power, the test specimen survived a temperature exceeding 900 K. Griffin simulations of the experiment successfully matched the reactor’s power transient after calibrating the initial control rod position to match the initial reactor period. The thermal-hydraulics model largely matches the time-dependent response of a thermocouple located within the experiment specimen to within the uncertainty estimate. However, the uncertainty range is significant and must be reduced in the future.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy impact of human health and wellness lighting recommendations for office and classroom applications

The goal of this investigation was to evaluate potential energy impacts of circadian lighting design recommendations gaining attention in a variety of common applications such as offices and classrooms. The renewed focus on health along with advances in SSL technology capabilities has underscored that there is still much to learn regarding the relationship between light and human physiology. The energy implications of designing to address these possible physiological effects are not yet fully understood. Beyond the fact that the basic metric of luminous efficacy (lumens per watt) does not cover these other effects, the emerging science seems to indicate that addressing a holistic view of the human needs in most applications may mean a need for increased light and associated energy use by electric lighting systems. Within the two applications considered, lumen output, spectral characteristics, surface reflectance distribution and desk orientation were varied to explore the magnitude of potential effects. Meeting current IES illuminance recommendations did not satisfy existing EML and CS recommendations for any of the simulations. In some cases, satisfying circadian metric recommendations required average illuminance that was more than double IES recommendations, which may negatively impact lighting quality as well. Using results from 45 unique simulation conditions, it was estimated that lighting energy use may increase between 10% and 100% due to increased luminaire light levels used to meet circadian lighting design recommendations listed in current building standards such as WELL v2 Q2 2019, UL Design Guideline 24480, and CHPS Core Criteria 3.0.

circadian lighting, lighting simulation, solid sta↗
DOE OSTI2025

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Assessment of a Dual-purpose HP-TES for a Typical Year Comparing Different Climate Zones

Complete electrification of heating and cooling systems in the United States would overload the existing electrical grid. To this end, recent research efforts have focused on energy storage as one way to reduce ever-increasing peak electricity demands. One such technology is heat pump integrated thermal-energy storage (HP-TES) systems, which can enable load-shifting and reduce demand during peak hours. In this work, a Modelica model of a 4-Ton, dual-mode (heating and cooling) HP-TES system using a room-temperature phase-change material (PCM) integrated through a secondary hydronic loop was developed and simulated for a typical meteorological year in Riverside, CA (ASHRAE Climate Zone 2B), and Chicago, IL (ASHRAE Climate Zone 5A), for a DOE small office prototype building. The COP improvement and demand reduction were analyzed during the time-of-use peak hours along with the required recharge cycle energy demand. A typical summer in Riverside, CA resulted in model-predicted peak COP increases of 50 – 100% compared to the baseline heat pump, especially at higher outdoor temperatures, coupled with maximum peak energy reductions of 22%. During shoulder and winter season simulations, heating energy savings were higher as outdoor temperatures dropped below the PCM phase change temperature. For Chicago, IL, backup heating was necessary to meet the required system capacity for very cold ambient conditions, resulting in winter peak energy savings between 16 – 60% when accounting for backup heating requirements. The recharge energy was found to be mostly below the baseline HP energy during the peak. With improved component selections and controls, the recharge energy may be reduced. The outcomes from the simulations can provide first-order estimates for potential peak energy savings, challenges, and required controls in any location before conducting any field testing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗