Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “wind potential”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quadruple Langmuir probe characterization of different fuel gases in a plasma deflagration accelerator

Astrophysical flows may be studied by reproducing similar conditions using a coaxial plasma accelerator operating in the deflagration regime (or plasma deflagration accelerator). This allows for the recreation and investigation of dynamics present in complex highly coupled plasma systems at the laboratory scale. Here we report on measurements of the plasma density, temperature, plasma potential and velocity found using a quadruple Langmuir probe (QLP) on such a deflagration accelerator in the form of the Stanford Coaxial High ENerGy (CHENG) device operating with multiple gases – specifically argon, nitrogen and hydrogen. Experiments show a general decrease in bulk plasma velocity with gas atomic mass from upwards of 120 km s –1 with hydrogen to less than 30 km s –1 with argon. There was an accompanying increase in peak plasma density with increasing atomic mass from ~3 × 10 20 m –3 with hydrogen to ~1.5 × 10 21 m –3 with argon. It was found that the momentum flux and internal energy density also generally increase with atomic mass while the particle flux is constant between shots. Further investigation is needed to understand these correlations and the underlying physics. Lastly, comparisons with scaling laws show that while the CHENG device may be operated in such a way as to simulate the effects of bulk solar wind movement, it may not properly capture the thermal effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements

Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calibration and field deployment of low-cost sensor network to monitor underground pipeline leakage

Recent technological advances in methane detection have improved leak detection and repair. However, current methods to reliably measure methane concentrations rely on expensive instruments or demand significant labor input. There is interest in using affordable methane sensors that are responsive to ppmv level changes in methane concentrations in both urban and rural environments for monitoring underground natural gas pipeline leaks. This is especially relevant for situations where potentially significant leaks cannot be repaired immediately or smaller leaks that require long-term monitoring and further evaluation. In this work, a low-cost sensor unit, equipped with a metal oxide sensor, was designed, built, and calibrated over a wide range of methane concentrations and environmental conditions in preparation for field application. A network of these sensors was then installed at the test site and used to measure methane concentrations at ground level above known sub-surface natural gas emissions which emulated underground gas pipeline leaks. This low-cost sensor network measured over 4 days total for the two different known leakage rates. Results demonstrate that the sensors can continuously measure relative methane variability for extended periods but require calibration for a wide range of temperature and humidity conditions to properly determine absolute gas (i.e., methane) concentrations. Furthermore, when a regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the effects of meteorological parameters on methane concentration, air temperature and wind speed have strong impacts on the concentration. Overall, the network approach allows improved identification of leak location and monitoring of underground natural gas leaks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Artificial Intelligence and Computer Vision for Cost-Effective Benthic Habitat Characterizations

Machine learning applied to computer vision and pattern recognition is a type of artificial intelligence that has advanced rapidly in the last 10 to 15 years, spurred forward by breakthroughs in deep convolutional neural networks. These state-of-the-art methods are poised to become widely used in environmental monitoring applications as a result of the increasing abundance of data available from different imaging platforms (e.g., fixed-point cameras, drone surveys, high-resolution satellite data) that can be analyzed to observe, model, and understand environmental conditions. Computer vision and pattern recognition (CVPR) tools advance our ability to use imagery and camera-based tools in cost-effective ways for environmental monitoring. Although these techniques offer great potential, some challenges remain, such as the need for large sets of labeled images for model training and validation and optimized hardware and software to ensure that the models can be trained effectively and in a reasonable amount of time. Here, we have overcome many of these rate-limiting challenges by using a diverse image library built across multiple projects coupled with staff expertise and onsite computing resources. We are working toward a fully automated SPI processing system and also are moving to develop CVPR analytical tools for other imaging platforms and data sets.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radiation-Induced Catalysis of Chemical Reactions

Nuclear energy is a process which achieves zero-carbon energy and heat generation that can provide a consistent electricity load to supply the grid when renewables are not available. However, on a cost per kilowatt-hour comparison, nuclear energy is more expensive than many of the renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar. In order to increase the economic viability of next generation nuclear reactors for energy production, generation of a secondary product such as a chemical feedstock would increase the economic viability of nuclear energy, particularly for new installations of next-generation nuclear reactors for power production. Currently, commercial nuclear reactors are primarily used for their heat to generate steam for electricity production. There is a large amount of unused energy in the form of photon and neutron radiation that could be exploited to drive chemical processes to produce feedstock materials as a secondary product of a nuclear plant. Chemical processing with radiation is not a new concept. In fact, gamma radiation is an excellent source of high energy photons to drive photochemical reactions. Dow chemical produced commercial quantities of ethyl bromide using gamma irradiation from a 60 Co source in the 1960s and 1970s because it was the most cost-effective means of production to meet the demand.5, 6 Due to the potential economic advantages, there is a new emphasis on studying feedstock production which can be enhanced by excess gamma and neutron radiation, particularly if the reaction could be monitored in real-time which is advantageous for process optimization. A model system of lignocellulose degradation under γ- radiation was chosen for this study while following the degradation products with Raman spectroscopy in real-time.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Timing of Potential Last Nucleosynthetic Injections into the Protosolar Molecular Cloud Inferred from 41 Ca– 26 Al Systematics of Bulk CAIs

Short-lived radionuclides (SLRs) provide important information about the chronology of the early solar system. Among them, 41 Ca, due to its decay to 41 K with a half-life of only 0.1 Ma, is particularly valuable in constraining the timescales and origins of both SLRs and the formation of the oldest solar system materials, the Ca–Al-rich inclusions (CAIs). The initial abundance of 41Ca in the solar system, expressed as the ( 41 Ca/ 40 Ca)I ratio, is the key to unveiling the origin of this nuclide. Here, we report a new solar system ( 41 Ca/ 40 Ca)I ratio of 2.0 × 10 −8 derived from the K isotope compositions of two CAIs. This new ratio is about four times higher than the previous value inferred from a mineral isochron. Such a high ( 41 Ca/ 40 Ca)I ratio in the CAIs exceeds that expected for the protosolar molecular cloud by ∼1000×, implying very late injection of the 41 Ca (and possibly other SLRs) into the protosolar molecular cloud. The correlated enrichments of 41 Ca and 26 Al in the bulk CAI samples hint at a common stellar origin of both SLRs. The injection time estimated from our new data depends on the stellar source—it ranges from 0.6 Ma for a Wolf–Rayet wind to 1.0 Ma for a TP-AGB star ejecta.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An assessment of existing barriers to market adoption of thermal energy storage in buildings based on interviews with stakeholders

The United States administration recently established a goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by half below 2005 levels by 2030 and becoming a carbon-neutral economy by 2050. The transition to renewable energy sources may be significantly aided by energy storage. Energy storage could smooth the delivery of variable or intermittent renewable energy sources such as wind, hydro, and sun by storing excess renewable energy when it’s available and delivering it back when renewable energy production is low. Thermal energy storage (TES) is a way that stores thermal energy by heating or cooling a storage medium, which is then used for space heating and cooling, industrial processes, or power generation purposes later. This TES operation could lessen the demand for electricity in both the winter's and the summer's peak hours of electricity. While there are various studies that focus on the advancements and successes of TES technology, less attention is placed on its market adoption. Therefore, the current study undertakes survey-based interview research to understand the existing market barriers hindering TES application in buildings. A series of interviews were performed in this study with individuals from various backgrounds, ranging from homeowners to market specialists who work for TES manufacturers and utility companies. According to the responses obtained during the interviews, they strongly believe that TES has a high potential to contribute to the nation's grid stability and decarbonization goals, however, there are several barriers that prevent homeowners and heat pump manufacturers from investing in TES applications. The current study divided the responses from various background groups into categories to better understand the current challenges for TES applications in buildings. These responses range from payback concerns from homeowners to the need to develop a new metric to represent the benefits of TES from the heat pump and TES manufacturers. The findings from this study can be used by policymakers, utility companies, and manufacturers to better understand present obstacles and develop strategies to overcome them.

Prem Anand Jayaprabha, Jyothis Anand↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

7.2 kV Three-Port SiC Single-Stage Current-Source Solid-State Transformer With 90 kV Lightning Protection

This article proposes a multiport modular single-stage current-source solid-state transformer (SST) for applications like photovoltaic, energy storage integration, electric vehicle fast charging, data center, etc. The 7.2 kV 50 kVA current-source SST consists of five input-series output-parallel modules, each based on 3.3 kV SiC reverse-blocking MOSFET-plus-diode modules. The proposed SST has some unique features. First, compared to the voltage-source or matrix converter-based SSTs, the current-source SST has a unique advantage of single-stage isolated AC/DC or AC/AC conversion with an inductive DC link, but no medium-voltage (MV) AC experiments have been reported. This article for the first time demonstrates MV AC current-source SST up to 7.5 kV peak. Second, the multiport SST has a buffer port for active power decoupling (APD) or energy storage integration. The double-line-frequency power ripple from single-phase AC grid normally results in a large capacitor size in MV SSTs. The APD scheme is proposed in MV applications for the first time to enable a reduced DC link and the electrolytic capacitor-less SST with high reliability. Third, as a direct grid-connected converter without line-frequency transformer, insulation and protection are critical. A medium-frequency transformer design passes 55 kV basic-insulation level (BIL) and 60 kV high potential dielectrics withstand test with only 0.09% leakage inductance. Importantly, a lightning protection scheme is presented to protect the SST itself from 90 kV BIL impulse. Fourth, the proposed current-source SST topology is a modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) with full-range zero-voltage switching and controlled dv/dt for low electromagnetic interference. Furthermore, these concepts are verified in a three-port M-S4T prototype with forced oil cooling under single-module, stacked-module, steady-state, and dynamic operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probing the hadronic nature of the gamma-ray emission associated with Westerlund 2

ABSTRACT Star-forming regions have been proposed as potential Galactic cosmic ray accelerators for decades. Cosmic ray acceleration can be probed through observations of gamma-rays produced in inelastic proton–proton collisions at GeV and TeV energies. In this paper, we analyse more than 11 yr of Fermi–LAT data from the direction of Westerlund 2, one of the most massive and best-studied star-forming regions in our Galaxy. In particular, we investigate the characteristics of the bright pulsar PSR J1023–5746 that dominates the gamma-ray emission below a few GeV at the position of Westerlund 2 and the underlying extended source FGES J1023.3–5747. The analysis results in a clear identification of FGES J1023.3–5747 as the GeV counterpart of the TeV source HESS J1023-575, through its morphological and spectral properties. This identification provides new clues about the origin of the HESS J1023-575 gamma-ray emission, favouring a hadronic origin of the emission, powered by Westerlund 2, rather than a leptonic origin related to either the pulsar wind nebula associated with PSR J1023–5746 or the cluster itself. This result indirectly supports the hypothesis that star-forming regions can contribute to the cosmic ray sea observed in our Galaxy.

Mestre, Enrique↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Combined Computer Vision and Deep Learning Approach for Rapid Drone-Based Optical Characterization of Parabolic Troughs

Optical accuracy is a primary driver of parabolic trough concentrating solar power (CSP) plant performance, but can be damaged by wind loads, gravity, error during installation, and regular plant operation. Collecting and analyzing optical measurements over an entire operating parabolic trough plant is difficult, given the large scale of typical installations. Distant Observer, a software tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, uses images of the absorber tube reflected in the collector mirror to measure both surface slope in the parabolic mirror and offset of the absorber tube from the ideal focal point. This technology has been adapted for fast data collection using low-cost commercial drones, but until recently still required substantial human labor to process large amounts of data. A new method leveraging advanced deep learning and computer vision tools can drastically reduce the time required to process images. This new method addresses the primary analysis bottleneck, identifying featureless, reflective mirror corner points to a high degree of accuracy. Recent work has shown promising results using computer vision methods. The combined deep learning and computer vision approach presented here proved highly effective and has the potential to further automate data collection and analysis, making the tool more robust. The method presented in this paper automatically identified 74.3% of mirror corners within 2 pixels of their manually marked counterparts and 91.9% within 3 pixels. This level of accuracy is sufficient for practical Distant Observer analysis within a target uncertainty. A commercial drone collected video of over 100 parabolic trough modules at an operating CSP plant to demonstrate the deep learning and computer vision method's usefulness in processing large amounts of data. These troughs were successfully analyzed using Distant Observer, paired with the new deep learning and computer vision algorithm, and can provide plant operators and trough designers with valuable insight about plant performance, operating strategies, and plant-wide optical error trends.

computer vision↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental Investigations into the Corrosion of Alloy 625 Using NaCl-PuCl3 Molten Salt in a Natural Circulation Microloop

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) can potentially revolutionize the nuclear industry by providing a path to a near-zero nuclear waste fuel cycle, contributing to more sustainable energy sources. As a plethora of MSR developers in the United States work toward an aggressive commercialization timeline, many of their fueled-salts—notably, chloride-based compositions—have limited operational testing with nuclear material. Licensing and operating these reactors require an understanding of corrosion effects on reactor materials of construction under operational conditions. The TerraPower Molten Chloride Fast Reactor (MCFR) is a liquid-fueled chloride-salt fast reactor which has received notable interest from the utility sector based on its desirable economic characteristics. The reactor operates at low pressure but does not require the use of highly reactive chemicals, leading to a reduced use of concrete and steel during construction. Additionally, liquid fuel allows for inherently stable behavior and natural circulation during a loss-of-site-power scenario. MCFR can be refueled while operating which makes it compatible with variable generation sources such as wind and solar. MCFR is a breed-and-burn in-situ reactor that does not implement any chemical processing or separations in the fuel cycle. Only mechanical filtration of noble metals and off-gassing of noble gases are utilized while the actinides stay mixed with the fuel at all times. The MCFR will require technology development to reach commercialization. With a breed-and-burn in-situ reactor like MCFR, the transmutation of fertile U-238 to fissile Pu-239 allows for much greater fuel utilization.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Pollen on Hydrometeors and Precipitation in a Convective System

Anemophilous (wind-driven) pollen is one type of primary biological aerosol particle, which can rupture under high humidity conditions and form smaller sub-pollen particles (SPPs). Both pollen and SPPs can reach the upper troposphere under convective conditions, acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nucleating particles (INPs), thus influencing cloud formation and precipitation. However, the impacts of these biological aerosols on cold cloud formation and local climate remain unclear as there are large uncertainties on their emission flux and ice nucleating abilities. Here, we incorporate pollen emission and rupture processes in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations and update the Morrison microphysics scheme within WRF-Chem using aerosol-aware INP parameterizations to account for pollen in addition to other anthropogenic and biogenic aerosol. INP parameterizations for pollen and SPP are derived from laboratory experiments. When including pollen rupture rates as observed in a series of chamber studies, SPP concentrations increase, leading to an increase of cloud ice and water by up to 50% and potentially extending the duration of the convective system. Among all simulated hydrometeors, graupel and raindrops exhibit the largest enhancements from the inclusion of SPPs, with intensifying precipitation at the backside of the convective system and a greater spatial extent. Sensitivity simulations indicate that SPPs have a greater effect on cloud microphysical processes than whole pollen grains, and further observational evidence is needed to constrain these processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design, Manufacture, and Testing of an Open-Source Benchmark Composite Hydrokinetic Turbine Blade: Preprint

In a trend toward clean energy alternatives, recent years have seen great strides in the marine energy space. Consequently, there is a pressing need for the design, development, and validation of novel energy harvesting technologies such as hydrokinetic devices, which capture kinetic energy from waves, tides, and currents. However, these devices span numerous concepts and designs that often lack solid benchmark research that can be freely referenced throughout their development. This work focuses on the design process of an open-source composite hydrokinetic turbine blade for a three-bladed marine turbine rotor assembly with a diameter of 2.5 m. The proposed blade consists of two structural composite skins that are bonded with an adhesive and filled with a foam core. This study also explores and contrasts the efficiency and resolution of low-fidelity rapid design methodologies and comprehensive high-fidelity approaches in the context of blade design, modeling, and analysis efforts, a key objective in this research. Blade hydrodynamic loads were modeled and applied to finite-element blade models to study deformations and potential failure. Ongoing and upcoming efforts will result in blade manufacture and structural testing at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. In future work, multiple blades will be deployed at the Living Bridge site at the University of New Hampshire and will be compared to rigid aluminum blades of the same geometry, developed by Sandia National Laboratories. Ultimately, this research will lay foundational groundwork for researchers and manufacturers, establishing a baseline composite blade design that will serve as a benchmark in the development of future hydrokinetic turbine blades.

blade design↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reactive Carbon Capture: Cooperative and Bifunctional Adsorbent-Catalyst Materials and Process Integration for a New Carbon Economy

To say the least, releasing CO 2 into the atmosphere is reaping undue environmental consequences given the ever-present increase in severe global weather events over the past five years. However, it can be argued that–at least in the confines of current technological capabilities–the atmospheric release of CO 2 is somewhat unavoidable given that even shifting toward clean energy sources–such as solar, nuclear, wind, battery, or H 2 power–incurs an initial carbon requirement by way of manufacturing the very production abilities through which “clean” energy is generated. Even years from now, experts agree that energy production will be diversified and–as the global population continues to drive the growth of global energy consumption–thermal power derived from carbon combustion is likely to remain one intrinsic energetic source, of which CO 2 will always be a byproduct. In this context, it is the responsibility of the scientific community to devise improved pathways of carbon management such that (i) the consequences of combustion on the global environment are reduced and (ii) carbon fuels can be leveraged in a sustainable fashion. In this Account, we discuss a pivotal perspective shift on CO 2 emissions derived from a considerable breakthrough in material science from our work on shape engineering of nanoporous adsorbents and catalysts. This account details the development of materials which no longer vilify CO 2 emissions as a valueless combustion byproduct, instead providing a path for them to become a potential feedstock. In more specific terms, this work details the development of structured, cooperative “bifunctional” materials (BFMs) comprised of (i) a high-temperature adsorbent and (ii) a heterogeneous catalyst that enable single-bed CO 2 capture and utilization in oxidative ethane dehydrogenation (ODHE), oxidative propane dehydrogenation (ODHP), and dry methane reforming (DMR) processes. This Account begins with the conceptual development of the BFMs in the powdered state, followed by detailing the first-ever reports of structuring the materials into facile honeycomb contactors by 3D printing. The Account then summarizes the impressive performance of the 3D-printed BFMs, specifically focusing on how their catalysts (metal oxides and perovskites) influence their reactive CO 2 capture performances in ODHE, ODHP, and DMR processes. Such promise of CO 2 -as-fuel offers a glimpse into the future of a diversified energy economy, in which CO 2 /fuel looping can play an important role. A major factor in achieving this future is, of course, developing an appropriately active catalyst; an account of whose first breakthroughs in material science are detailed herein.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion

During one of the warmest and driest droughts of the last century, the southern Appalachian Mountains experienced a regional outbreak of over a dozen large wildfires in late fall of 2016. We provide a synthesis of long-term forest changes leading up to the 2016 wildfires, examine the climatic setting and patterns of burn severity in relationship to topography, and discuss the ecological and management implications of these and future fires. During the pre- and post-European settlement periods, frequent low- and mixed-severity wildfires interacted with complex topographic gradients and maintained heterogenous landscapes dominated by several species of oak (Quercus spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and the American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Land-use changes associated with European settlement, loss of the American chestnut, and 20th century fire exclusion resulted in large scale shifts towards mesic, fire-intolerant species (i.e. mesophication). Wildfire activity began increasing in the early 1980s, but most fires in the region are small (<1,000 ha). In Fall of 2016, deciduous tree leaf fall occurred concurrently with a period of anomalously dry and warm weather, creating ideal conditions for fire ignition and spread. Thousands of ignitions across the region strained suppression resources and eight fires grew to greater than 5,000 ha. The 2016 fires were larger and burned more area than in the previous three decades combined. In one unique landscape setting, the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, a synoptic wind event drove extreme fire behavior and burned large, high-severity patches resulting in devastating effects in the wildland urban interface. However, immediate post-fire burn severity mosaics for other fires were composed primarily of low- (73 %) and moderate-severity (21 %) fire effects. High-severity fire comprised only 6 % of the area burned, and occurred mostly on steep upper slopes and ridges on south-facing aspects, reflecting the importance of bottom-up topographic drivers in this region. Although the fires will likely enhance biodiversity by restoring fire-dependent species and creating early seral habitat, invasions of non-native plant species, delayed mortality of mature pines and oaks, and rapid re-sprouting of pyrophyllic shrubs pose significant management challenges. Although similar large fire outbreaks may become more common under future climatic conditions, they are unlikely to reverse the effects of mesophication and significantly alter forest dynamics at broad spatial scales. Furthermore, the 2016 fires exposed the vulnerability of the region to wildfire during acute fall drought and demonstrate the potential ecological effects of future wildfires in mixed pine-hardwood landscapes of the southern Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Study of Storage Requirements and Costs for Shaping Renewables and Nuclear Energy (FY23 Summary Report)

To decarbonize electricity generation primarily by using wind and solar resources, it is likely that additional low (or zero) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) alternatives will be required for ensuring a reliable electricity supply. This study extends the work and modeling framework that we consolidated in FY 2022, by assessing the zero-CO 2 pathways of a Texas power system in which the availability of variable renewable energy (VRE), nuclear energy, and energy storage types (i.e., battery and thermal energy storage [TES]) are considered the sole resources available for expansion. Using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) frameworks, this study investigates the market of two nuclear energy technologies (i.e., large light-water reactors [LWRs] and LWR-type small modular reactors [SMRs]) under two plausible storage coupling scenarios (i.e., electric coupling and direct thermal coupling). We also explore optimal environments for nuclear energy deployment, and identify key performance characteristics that make nuclear energy economically viable in areas with significant intermittent energy sources. Our analysis encompasses 24 cases. We model the least-cost grid systems, highlight the potential for a coupled LWR-TES approach, and utilize SMRs to achieve deep decarbonization in an affordable, technically feasible manner. We also examine seasonal variations in balancing electricity supply and demand, and account for varying performance, costs, and grid constraints. Overall, the findings of our modeling afford valuable insights for supporting future technology investment decisions in the energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗