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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Enhanced antineutrino emission from 𝛽 decay in core-collapse supernovae with self-consistent weak decay rates

Nuclear weak-interaction rates are known to exert a prominent effect in the late stages of stellar collapse. Despite their importance, most studies to date on core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) have focused primarily on the effects of electron captures, neglecting 𝛽 decay contributions. In this work, we present the first CCSNe simulation incorporating global 𝛽 decay rates from a microscopic theory. These are enabled by a large-scale evaluation of both electron capture and 𝛽 decay rates, obtained self-consistently utilizing the relativistic energy density functional theory and finite-temperature quasiparticle random-phase approximation. Including 𝛽 decay leads to a dramatic enhancement of the pre-bounce antineutrino signal as the antineutrino emissivity increases by more than two orders of magnitude and the luminosity by a factor of 50 relative to thermal emission alone, while the average antineutrino energy increases by over 1 MeV. Furthermore, it is expected that these new rates could help us constrain the model uncertainties related to weak-interaction processes, improving the prediction of antineutrino signal during the final stages of stellar death.

Beta decay↗

Nonlinear compressible convection penetrating into stable layers and producing internal gravity waves

Penetrative convection spanning multiple scale heights is studied within a simple stellar envelope consisting of three layers: a convectively unstable middle layer bounded above and below by stably stratified polytropes. Two-dimensional numerical simulations are used to investigate the fully compressible nonlinear motions that ensue. The cellular flows display prominent downward-directd plumes surrounded by broader regions of upflow. Such asymmetry arises because pressure fluctuations accentuate buoyancy driving in the concentrated plumes and can even lead to weak buoyancy braking in the surrounding ascending flows. As the plumes plunge downward into a region of stable stratification, they serve to excite a broad spectrum of internal gravity waves there. The induced waves are not passive, for they feed back upon the plumes by deflecting them sideways, thereby modulating the amplitude of the convection in time even in the unstable layer. The penetrative motions that billow upward into the upper stable zone are distinctly weaker, and they cascade back downward toward the unstable zone over a broad horizontal scale. The strong excitation of gravity waves by the convection has implications for gradual mixing deep within a star.

Hurlburt, Neal E.↗

Future Projections of EURO‐CORDEX Raw and Bias‐Corrected Daily Maximum Wind Speeds Over Scandinavia

Twenty historical and future Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment ensemble for Europe simulations are bias corrected to investigate the future changes in the daily maximum wind speed over Scandinavia. We use quantile mapping to adjust the wind for the historical period (1985–2014) and quantile delta mapping for two future periods (2041–2070, 2071–2100, RCP8.5) with the 3-km spatial resolution NORA3 hindcast as the reference data set. Decomposing the variance, we find that most of the inter-model spread in the bias and the response to climate change is due to the regional climate model over land and mainly to the general climate model over sea. On average, the mean daily maximum wind speed is projected to increase everywhere except along the western coast of Norway and Denmark. In summer, we see an opposite sign over Sweden and Finland. The Norwegian Sea experiences weaker mean and high wind whereas the Baltic Sea experiences a strengthening. Bias correction influences the amplitude of the response, not the response pattern. Wind speed distributions can have different shapes in the future, with, for example, a flattening of the distribution off the coast of Norway with more frequent weak and very strong winds. Apart from a few locations in Norway, we find an increase in the number of days in the local highest historical wind category. Overall, summer exhibits opposite signals compared to the three other seasons. At country scale, the sign of the change in the mean and 98th percentile varies greatly depending on the region and among the simulations, especially for Norway.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wide-field microwave magnetic field imaging with nitrogen-vacancy centers in diamond

Non-invasive imaging of microwave (MW) magnetic fields with microscale lateral resolution is pivotal for various applications, such as MW technologies and integrated circuit failure analysis. Diamond nitrogen-vacancy (NV) center magnetometry has emerged as an ideal tool, offering micrometer-scale resolution, millimeter-scale field of view, high sensitivity, and non-invasive imaging compatible with diverse samples. However, up until now, it has been predominantly used for imaging of static or low-frequency magnetic fields or, concerning MW field imaging, to directly characterize the same microwave device used to drive the NV spin transitions. In this work, we leverage an NV center ensemble in diamond for wide-field imaging of MW magnetic fields generated by a test device employing a differential measurement protocol. The microscope is equipped with a MW loop to induce Rabi oscillations between NV spin states, and the MW field from the device-under-test is measured through local deviations in the Rabi frequency. This differential protocol yields magnetic field maps of a 2.57 GHz MW field with a sensitivity of ∼9 μT Hz −1/2 for a total measurement duration of T=357 s, covering a 340 × 340 μm 2 field of view with a micrometer-scale spatial resolution and a device-under-test input power dynamic range of 30 dB. This work demonstrates a novel NV magnetometry protocol, based on differential Rabi frequency measurement, that extends NV wide-field imaging capabilities to imaging of weak MW magnetic fields that would be difficult to measure directly through standard NV Rabi magnetometry.

crystallographic defects↗

Azimuthal and axial structures in 3D particle-in-cell simulation of Penning discharge

We report the results of a 3D particle-in-cell simulation of cylindrical Penning discharge with the axial magnetic field in the so-called reflex configuration, where the cathode and anti-cathode are biased to the same negative potential. The discharge is supported by thermal electron emission from the cathode. Electron and ion collisions, including ionization, are fully accounted for. The emphasis is on a specific regime in which the plasma potential at the center of the discharge is positive with respect to the chamber walls, serving as an anode. Spatial and temporal scales of the observed azimuthal and axial fluctuations and structures are characterized. It is suggested that azimuthal structures are caused by the dissipative gradient-drift instability. We find that the axial fluctuations related to the plasma-beam instabilities are weakly correlated with the azimuthal perturbations of the density, so that the azimuthal modes rotate as a whole and do not show any axial shear. The behavior of the electric potential is more involved, demonstrating intermittent standing wave and propagating structures in the axial direction that modulate the electron transport, producing the standing wave pattern (along the z-direction) in the radial electron flux.

3D PIC simulation of discharge↗

Network analysis of earthquake ground motion spatial correlation: a case study with the San Jacinto seismic nodal array

SUMMARY The spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion intensity can be measured from strong motion data; however, the data used in past studies is sparsely sampled in space, and only the interstation distance was considered as a correlation variable. These limitations mean that we have only weak constraints on the true correlation structure of ground motion and that potentially important aspects of spatial correlation are unconstrained. In this study, we combine a large-N seismic array and graph analytics to explore this issue at a local scale using small local and regional earthquakes. Our result suggests site conditions, and how they interact with the incident seismic wavefield, strongly condition the spatial correlation of ground motion. Future progress in characterizing ground motion spatial variability will require dense wavefield measurements, either through nodal deployments, or perhaps distributed acoustic sensing measurements, of seismic wavefields. Aftershock sequences of major earthquakes would provide particularly data-rich targets of opportunity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effect of surface disorder on the chiral surface states of a three-dimensional quantum Hall system

We investigate the effect of surface disorder on the chiral surface states of a three-dimensional quantum Hall system. Utilizing a transfer-matrix method, we find that the localization length of the surface state along the magnetic field decreases with the surface disorder strength in the weak disorder regime but increases anomalously in the strong disorder regime. In the strong disorder regime, the surface states mainly locate at the first inward layer to avoid the strong disorder in the outmost layer. The anomalous increase of the localization length can be explained by an effective model, which maps the strong disorder on the surface layer to the weak disorder on the first inward layer. Our work demonstrates that surface disorder can be an effective way to control the transport behavior of the surface states along the magnetic field. We also investigate the effect of surface disorder on the full distribution of conductances P(g) of the surface states in the quasi-one-dimensional (1D) regime for various surface disorder strengths. In particular, we find that P(g) is Gaussian in the quasi-1D metal regime and log-normal in the quasi-1D insulator regime. In the crossover regime, P(g) exhibits highly nontrivial forms, whose shapes coincide with the results obtained from the Dorokhov-Mello-Pereyra-Kumar equation of a weakly disordered quasi-1D wire in the absence of time-reversal symmetry. Our results suggest that P(g) is fully determined by the average conductance, independent of the details of the system, in agreement with the single-parameter scaling hypothesis.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

The Effect of Splashback on Weak Lensing Mass Estimates of Galaxy Clusters and Groups

The splashback radius of a dark matter halo, which corresponds to the first apocenter radius reached by infalling matter and substructures, has been detected around galaxy clusters using a multitude of observational methods, including weak lensing measurements. In this manuscript, we present how the splashback feature in the halo density profile affects galaxy cluster masses derived through weak lensing measurements if it is not accounted for. We find that the splashback radius has an increasingly large effect on group-sized halos towards $M_{200m} \sim 10^{13.5} \mathrm{M_\odot}$. Depending on the model and the radial scale used, the cluster/group masses can be biased low by more than 0.1 dex. This bias, in turn, would result in a slightly lower $\Omega_m$ value if propagated into a cluster cosmology analysis. The splashback effect with group-sized dark matter halos may become important to consider, given the increasingly stringent cosmological constraints coming from optical wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

High-energy Radiation and Ion Acceleration in Three-dimensional Relativistic Magnetic Reconnection with Strong Synchrotron Cooling

Abstract We present the results of 3D particle-in-cell simulations that explore relativistic magnetic reconnection in pair plasma with strong synchrotron cooling and a small mass fraction of nonradiating ions. Our results demonstrate that the structure of the current sheet is highly sensitive to the dynamic efficiency of radiative cooling. Specifically, stronger cooling leads to more significant compression of the plasma and magnetic field within the plasmoids. We demonstrate that ions can be efficiently accelerated to energies exceeding the plasma magnetization parameter, ≫ σ , and form a hard power-law energy distribution, f i ∝ γ −1 . This conclusion implies a highly efficient proton acceleration in the magnetospheres of young pulsars. Conversely, the energies of pairs are limited to either σ in the strong cooling regime or the radiation burnoff limit, γ syn , when cooling is weak. We find that the high-energy radiation from pairs above the synchrotron burnoff limit, ε c ≈ 16 MeV, is only efficiently produced in the strong cooling regime, γ syn < σ . In this regime, we find that the spectral cutoff scales as ε cut ≈ ε c ( σ / γ syn ) and the highest energy photons are beamed along the direction of the upstream magnetic field, consistent with the phenomenological models of gamma-ray emission from young pulsars. Furthermore, our results place constraints on the reconnection-driven models of gamma-ray flares in the Crab Nebula.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Baseline ozone results from 1923 to 1955

Baseline total atmospheric ozone values from the year 1923 to 1955 are reported which have been derived from observations of the solar constant made by Smithsonian Institution sites in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Ozone was determined from absorption by the broad, weak Chappuis band near 0.6 microns as measured on 1194 days at Mt. Montezuma, Chile and 970 days at Table Mountain, California. Results show systematic changes on the order of 25 percent in the ozone level at Montezuma with a time scale of 10-20 years, although the previously reported 30 percent decrease between 1920-1930 and 1940-1950 is found to have been erroneous. Comparisons of ozone data with geomagnetic indices and sunspot number show a suggestive correlation of ozone with sunspot number, although the relation is not borne out by comparison of ozone and sunspot cycles, or by Fourier analysis. Comparison of ozone data in the Chappuis band obtained by a modern filter-wheel radiometer with that obtained from a Dobson spectrometer at Mauna Loa Observatory shows Chappuis band measurements to be 14 percent lower.

Angione, R. J.↗

On the Nature of Navier-stokes Turbulence

Several turbulent and nonturbulent solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations are obtained. The unaveraged equations are used numerically in conjunction with tools and concepts from nonlinear dynamics, including time series, phase portraits, Poincare sections, largest Liapunov exponents, power spectra, and strange attractors. Initially neighboring solutions for a low-Reynolds-number fully developed turbulence are compared. The solutions, separate exponentially with time, having a positive Liapunov exponent. Thus the turbulence is characterized as chaotic. In a search for solutions which contrast with the turbulent ones, the Reynolds number is reduced. Several qualitatively different flows are noted. These are, fully chaotic, complex period, weakly chaotic, simple periodic, and fixed-point. Of these, only the fully chaotic flows are classified as turbulent. Those flows have both a positive Liapunov exponent and Poincare sections without pattern. By contrast, the weakly chaotic flows have some pattern in their Poincare sections. The fixed-point and periodic flows are nonturbulent, since turbulence, is both time-dependent and aperiodic. Turbulent solutions are obtained in which energy cascades from large to small-scale motions. In general, the spectral energy transfer takes place between wavenumber bands that are considerably separated. The special transfer can occur either as a result of nonlinear turbulence self-interaction or by interaction of turbulence with mean gradients. Turbulent systems are compared with those studied in kinetic theory. The two types of systems are fundamentally different (continuous and dissipative as opposed to discrete and conservative), but there are similarities. For instance, both are nonlinear and show sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Also, the turbulent and molecular stress tensors are identical if the macroscopic velocities for the turbulent stress are replaced by molecular velocities.

Deissler, Robert G.↗

Superconducting Effects in Optimization of Magnetic Penetration Thermometers for X-ray Microcalorimeters

We have made high resolution x-ray microcalorimeters using superconducting MoAu bilayers and Nb meander coils. The temperature sensor is a Magnetic Penetration Thermometer (MPT). Operation is similar to metallic magnetic calorimeters, but instead of the magnetic susceptibility of a paramagnetic alloy, we use the diamagnetic response of the superconducting MoAu to sense temperature changes in an x-ray absorber. Flux-temperature responsivtty can be large for small sensor heat capacity, with enough dynamic range for applications. We find models of observed flux-temperature curves require several effects to explain flux penetration or expulsion in the microscopic devices. The superconductor is non-local, with large coherence length and weak pinning of flux. At lowest temperatures, behavior is dominated by screening currents that vary as a result of the temperature dependence of the magnetic penetration depth, modified by the effect of the nonuniformity of the applied field occurring on a scale comparable to the coherence length. In the temperature regime where responslvity is greatest, spadal variations in the order parameter become important: both local variations as flux enters/leaves the film and an intermediate state is formed, and globally as changing stability of the electrical circuit creates a Meissner transition and flux is expelled/penetrates to minimize free energy.

Stevenson, Thomas R.↗

Validation of Microgrid Algorithms using At-Scale Simulation and Emulation Real-Time (ASSERT) Framework

This paper presents a novel framework for validating microgrid algorithms using a At-Scale Simulation and Emulation Real-Time (ASSERT) setup. The proposed universal microgrid validation framework was developed at Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform at National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, USA. As the number of intercommunicating devices grow in power systems, along with more integration of inverter-based resources, developing and validating microgrid operation and control algorithms is becoming complex and time-consuming task. The ASSERT framework is designed to provide a comprehensive, accurate, and efficient solution for validating microgrid algorithms. It combines at-scale simulations and real-time emulation to create a virtual environment that closely mimics the behavior of a physical microgrids which are characteristic of future smart distribution systems, such as: (1) increasing variability in the physical size of new energy technologies; (2) requiring control large numbers of interconnected devices, and (3) integrating diverse technologies that have not previously worked together. The paper describes the technical details of the ASSERT framework, its validation process, and its benefits over traditional validation methods. The framework's ability to validate the performance of various algorithms is demonstrated through a case study, which shows that it can effectively identify the weaknesses of an algorithm and optimize its performance. Overall, the ASSERT framework is a promising tool that can significantly enhance the development and validation of microgrid algorithms, leading to more reliable and efficient microgrid operation.

at-scale↗

An Extremely Luminous and Variable Ultraluminous X-ray Source in the Outskirts of Circinus Observed with Nustar

Following a serendipitous detection with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR), we present a multiepoch spectral and temporal analysis of an extreme ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) located in the outskirts of the Circinus galaxy, hereafter Circinus ULX5, including coordinated XMM-Newton+NuSTAR follow-up observations. The NuSTAR data presented here represent one of the first instances of a ULX reliably detected at hard (E greater than 10 keV) X-rays. CircinusULX5is variable on long time scales by at least a factor of approx. 5 in flux, and was caught in a historically bright state during our 2013 observations (0.3-30.0 keV luminosity of 1.6 × 10(exp 40) erg s(exp−1)). During this epoch, the source displayed a curved 3-10 keV spectrum, broadly similar to other bright ULXs. Although pure thermal models result in a high energy excess in the NuSTAR data, this excess is too weak to be modeled with the disk reflection interpretation previously proposed to explain the 3-10 keV curvature in other ULXs. In addition to flux variability, clear spectral variability is also observed. While in many cases the interpretation of spectral components in ULXs is uncertain, the spectral and temporal properties of all the high quality data sets currently available strongly support a simple disk-corona model reminiscent of that invoked for Galactic binaries, with the accretion disk becoming more prominent as the luminosity increases. However, although the disk temperature and luminosity are well correlated across all time scales currently probed, the observed luminosity follows L alpha T (exp 1.70+/-0.17), flatter than expected for simple blackbody radiation. The spectral variability displayed here is highly reminiscent of that observed from known Galactic black hole binaries (BHBs) at high luminosities. This comparison implies a black hole mass of approx. 90M for Circinus ULX5. However, given the diverse behavior observed from Galactic BHB accretion disks, this mass estimate is still uncertain. Finally, the limits placed on any undetected iron absorption features with the 2013 data set imply that we are not viewing the central regions of Circinus ULX5 through any extreme super-Eddington outflow.

black hole physics↗

Durability of YSZ Coated Ti2AlC in 1300 °C Mach 0.3 Burner Rig Tests

A thermal barrier coating system survived burner rig testing at 1300 °C for 500 h. A 160 µm thick yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) coating was applied to a Ti2AlC MAX phase bar sample by plasma spray physical vapor deposition (PS-PVD) and tested face-on in an atmospheric Mach 0.3 jet fuel burner, using 5-h thermal cycles. No thermal barrier coating (TBC) spallation or recession was observed, only a 2.4 mg/cm2 mass gain. The modest weight gain precluded severe volatility losses under high velocity burner conditions. The coating surface exhibited colonies of (111)flourite fiber-textured columns separated by craze patterns, with no visible moisture attack. The metastable tetragonal t' YSZ phase was obtained initially, transitioning to equilibrium teq and cubic YSZ, but with little detrimental monoclinic. The thickness of the alumina TGO was ~21 to 23 μm under the heated YSZ face and ~13 to 15 μm on the uncoated, cooler backside. The backside exhibited removal of initial transient TiO2 nodules and partial etching of the underlying Al2O3 scale by volatile hydroxides formed in high temperature, high velocity water vapor. Aerodynamic forces produced some bending of the cantilevered sample via creep. The test indicated exceptional stability of YSZ coatings on Ti2AlC under turbine conditions, with thermal expansion matching playing a key role. The purpose of this study was to demonstrate long term durability of YSZ/MAX phase system in aggressive high temperature burner rig testing. MAX phases have been keenly studied because of their unique crystal structure and intriguing properties (Refs. 1 and 2). Having Mn+1(Al,Si)(C,N)n general composition, they are defined as ceramics, but possess unusual desirable attributes such as high conductivity, thermal shock resistance, easy machinability, and deformation tolerance. The mechanical properties derive from weak M-(Al,Si) bonding in the basal plane that leads to sliding and kinking in preference to catastrophic crack growth. Like most ceramics they are phase stable at high temperatures, generally up to 1500 °C. High temperature oxidation resistance is excellent for alumina-forming Ti3AlC2, Ti2AlC, and Cr2AlC, as reviewed by Tallman, et al. (Ref. 3). Compatibility with α-Al2O3 scales is further enhanced in cyclic exposures by a close matching of thermal expansion coefficients, (Ref. 4) i.e., (~9.3, 10.2, 11.3×10–6/K for Al2O3, Ti2AlC, and YSZ, to be discussed). Turbine environments generally contain 10 percent water vapor in the combustion gases, therefore moisture effects can be a concern for some materials (Ref. 5). Furnace tests of MAX phases in high temperature steam generally showed little effect on Al2O3 scale growth (Ref. 6). However, high velocity and high pressure gas can influence scale losses by the formation of volatile reaction products, such as TiO(OH)2 and Al(OH)3 (Refs. 7 to 10). This phenomenon had been discussed for 1100 to 1300 °C high pressure burner rig tests of Ti2AlC (Ref. 11). A single cubic growth rate parameter kcubic was measurably lower than comparable furnace TGA data, but it could be matched reasonably well if corrected for a slight volatility term. In general, a two-parameter cubic-linear growth-volatility law was believed to apply. Corresponding scale volatility loss rates, directly measured at 1300 °C on a pre-oxidized sample, were moderate (0.012 mg/cm2/h) and largely attributed to removal of the initial TiO2 transient scale. A related CH4 burner study of high purity Cr2AlC MAX phase demonstrated 1200 °C durability after 500 rapid (5 min. heat and 2 min. cool) thermal shock cycling (29 h hot time) (Ref. 12). Heating and cooling rates were ~1000 and 500 °C per minute, with a gas velocity of 5 m/s, producing a 75 °C/mm gradient. A 7 μm Al2O3 surface scale and a 13 μm Cr7C3 depletion zone formed with no signs of failure. No evidence of scale volatility was evident, although weight change was not provided, the velocity was moderate, and the total hot time was not extensive. The same high gradient BRT was used to produce 1400 °C surface temperatures for a YSZ/Cr2AlC/IN738 system in the first study of MAX phases used as bond coats for thermal barrier coatings (TBC) (Ref. 25). Here TBC failure was reported after 745 cycles, with only a 1.5 μm Al2O3 scale entrained within a porous, Cr7C3 bondcoat depletion phase. YSZ thermal barrier coatings have been considered to be a compatible complement to Al-MAX phases because of thermal expansion matching and extremely low volatility in water vapor. Initial studies showed superior oxidative stability up to 1300 °C, for long times (at least 500 h) for Ti2AlC substrates and less (268 h) for Cr2AlC, while withstanding large alumina TGO scale thickness (~35 to 40 μm) (Refs. 13 and 14). By comparison, typical superalloy systems can only survive 1150 °C maximum interface temperatures for extended periods, with a maximum sustained TGO below 10 μm (Ref. 15). High temperature SiC based systems are known to form slow-growing SiO2 scales. But these are subject to rate enhancement and volatile Si(OH)4 products in the presence of water vapor, as described comprehensively by Opila, et al. (Refs. 5, 16 to 19). Net weight losses are generally observed in high velocity, high pressure burner rig studies (e.g., 0.084 mg/cm2/h at 1300 °C) (Ref. 20). Furthermore, the loss rates have been shown from chemical physics to scale with v1/2 and pH2O 2 (Ref. 16). Low activity, moisture-resistant environmental barrier coatings (EBC), such as rare earth silicates, are needed to prevent substrate recession under turbine conditions (Refs. 21 to 23).

Smialek, James L.↗

Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon

The costs of wind power have declined to levels on par with or below those of conventional sources in many parts of the world. Wind power has become one of the fastest-growing sources of new electricity generation. We take stock of wind power cost evolution over the past 20 years, review methodologies commonly used for cost assessment, discuss the potential for continued cost reduction, and identify anticipated cost and value drivers. Our scope includes both onshore and offshore wind technologies. We draw from a vast body of literature on these topics to highlight key trends, approaches, and limitations. Furthermore, we discuss strategies for wind power assets to enhance their marginal economic value to the broader power system and consumers. We identify a myriad of factors that are expected to influence the future cost and value of wind power, including siting, project scale, turbine size, operational synergies, commodity prices, advancements in turbine technologies, enhanced management of the wind resource, and novel control technologies that provide value for the electricity grid. Because the common methods for forecasting future costs each have their own strengths and weaknesses, we find the best insights are elicited from a combination of methods. Overall, researchers and analysts anticipate further sizable cost reductions for onshore and offshore wind. Midrange forecasts for levelized cost of energy in 2050 are generally between $20 and $30/MWh for onshore wind and $40 and $60/MWh for offshore wind, a reduction to approximately half of today's levels. Optimistic forecasts anticipate these levels as early as 2030.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The effect of composition, temperature and pressure on the oxidation state and coordination environment of copper in silicate melts

Copper is a redox variable element that may occur as Cu 0 , Cu + , and Cu 2+ in the Earth’s crust. The oxidation state will affect its partitioning between coexisting minerals, melts and fluids and hence its behaviour in magmatic processes. Copper bearing silicate glasses were quenched from melts with 23 synthetic compositions (19 CaO-Na 2 O-MgO-Al 2 O 3 -SiO 2 (CNMAS), two “granites” containing K 2 O ± H 2 O, and Fe-bearing “MORB” and “andesite”) equilibrated at oxygen fugacities (fO 2 ), expressed in log units relative to the fayalite-magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer, ranging from −0.7 to 14, temperatures from 900 to 1500 °C and pressures from 0 to 2.5 GPa. Cu K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra were recorded from the glasses and a pre-edge feature in the XANES spectra was found to scale with the proportion of Cu + . Cu + /ΣCu (where ΣCu = Cu + + Cu 2+ ) was quantified by fitting the intensity of the pre-edge feature as a function of fO 2 to the thermodynamically expected relationship. Cu + /ΣCu was found to only weakly depend on melt composition, with more basic melts (e.g., basalts rather than granites) preferentially stabilising Cu 2+ . Increasing temperature stabilises Cu + , while increasing pressure had little effect on Cu + /ΣCu in CNMAS melts but preferentially stabilised Cu 2+ in granite melts. Cu + /ΣCu can be predicted in silicate melts by the empirical equation: log(Cu 2+ /Cu + ) = 0.25(ΔFMQ + 8.58 − 25050/T + 940P/T – 0.02P) − 4.73 + 5400/T + 1.99Λ + (280P – 90P2) where T is temperature in K, P is pressure in GPa and is the optical basicity of the composition. The effects of fO 2 , melt composition, temperature and pressure on Cu + /ΣCu indicate that Cu + will be the dominant oxidation state in terrestrial silicate melts (e.g., Cu + /ΣCu = 99% in an andesitic melt at 900 °C, 1 GPa and ΔFMQ = 1). The electron exchange reaction Cu 2+ + Fe 2+ → Cu + + Fe 3+ occurs on cooling and, given the abundance of Fe in natural melts, the oxidation state of Cu in natural glasses is unlikely to correspond to that in the original melt.

Copper↗