SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,153 records · Page 64

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1973

New radiometric techniques and solar constant measurements.

A series of absolute cavity radiometers, designed to measure solar irradiance, has been developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Analysis indicates the absolute uncertainty of irradiance measurements made by the most recent devices to be less than plus or minus 0.5 mW/sq cm. In a series of experiments the radiometric scale defined by the JPL instruments has been compared with the International Pyrheliometric Scale (IPS). A systematic 2.2% difference has been observed with the IPS producing consistently lower measurements. The solar constant and spectral distribution have been derived from high-altitude balloon flight measurements made by two types of JPL cavity radiometers. Measurements at 25 km in 1968 produced a solar constant value of 137.0 mW/sq cm. From 1969 measurements at 36 km, a value of 136.6 mW/sq cm was derived, with an estimated absolute uncertainty of plus or minus 0.5%. The solar spectrum information from these experiments agrees most closely with the solar spectrum model of Labs and Neckel (1968).

Willson, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Uncertainties in predicting solar panel power output

The problem of calculating solar panel power output at launch and during a space mission is considered. The major sources of uncertainty and error in predicting the post launch electrical performance of the panel are considered. A general discussion of error analysis is given. Examples of uncertainty calculations are included. A general method of calculating the effect on the panel of various degrading environments is presented, with references supplied for specific methods. A technique for sizing a solar panel for a required mission power profile is developed.

Anspaugh, B.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Calculations of the moon's heat history at different concentrations of radioactive elements taking account of the material differentiation with melting

A mathematical procedure for analyzing the heat conductivity of the lunar surface is discussed. The solution is based on homogeneous and laminated moon models and considers the effects of radioactive elements conveyed to the lunar surface by melting. The various parameters which introduce uncertainties into the numerical analysis are identified. The application of data obtained from radio astronomy and from analyses of lunar samples returned by the Apollo flights is explained. Tables of data are included to show the types and amounts of radioactive materials which have been identified.

Arnatskaya, O. I.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Zonal average earth radiation budget measurements from satellites for climate studies

Data from 29 months of satellite radiation budget measurements, taken intermittently over the period 1964 through 1971, are composited into mean month, season and annual zonally averaged meridional profiles. Individual months, which comprise the 29 month set, were selected as representing the best available total flux data for compositing into large scale statistics for climate studies. A discussion of spatial resolution of the measurements along with an error analysis, including both the uncertainty and standard error of the mean, are presented.

Ellis, J. S.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Experimental determination of Mercury's mass and oblateness

The ratio of the mass of the sun to that of Mercury deduced from the first and third flybys of Mercury by Mariner 10 is 6,023,600 plus or minus 600 and 6,023,700 plus or minus 300, respectively. Additional analysis should improve these uncertainties by a factor of 2 to 5. Assuming an equatorial radius of 2439 km, the mean density of the planet is 5.44 g/cu cm. The gravitational oblateness deduced from the first encounter is discussed. Data received from the third encounter are better suited for this determination and yield J2 of 0.00008 plus or minus 0.00006. In addition, the third-encounter data are sensitive to local gravity effects or anomalies.

Esposito, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Tuned feedback damping with application to the Galileo spacecraft

An adaptive controller has been developed which uses phase-locked-loops as the adaptive devices. The controller provides active damping to systems which have their underdamped frequencies known only to within a particular range (e.g. plus or minus 20% uncertainty). The design and analysis of the controller is presented along with an application of such a controller to the scan platform pointing system of the Galileo spacecraft, a system with sensors and actuators separated by flexible structure.

Macala, G. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Three component velocity measurements using Fabry-Perot interferometer

A method for measuring the three components of mean flow velocity using a backscatter optical system based on a confocal Fabry-Perot interferometer is described. An analysis of the expected uncertainties in the velocity component measurements is presented along with experimental data taken in a free jet at two flow velocities (100 and 300 m/s).

Seasholtz, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Design of the hybrid automated reliability predictor

The design of the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP), now under development at Duke University, is presented. The HARP approach to reliability prediction is characterized by a decomposition of the overall model into fault-occurrence and fault-handling sub-models. The fault-occurrence model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain which is solved analytically, while the fault-handling model is a Petri Net which is simulated. HARP provides automated analysis of sensitivity to uncertainties in the input parameters and in the initial state specifications. It then produces a predicted reliability band as a function of mission time, as well as estimates of the improvement (narrowing of the band) to be gained by a specified amount of reduction in uncertainty.

Geist, R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Three component velocity measurements using Fabry-Perot interferometer

Seasholtz, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An application of multiattribute decision analysis to the Space Station Freedom program. Case study: Automation and robotics technology evaluation

The results are described of an application of multiattribute analysis to the evaluation of high leverage prototyping technologies in the automation and robotics (A and R) areas that might contribute to the Space Station (SS) Freedom baseline design. An implication is that high leverage prototyping is beneficial to the SS Freedom Program as a means for transferring technology from the advanced development program to the baseline program. The process also highlights the tradeoffs to be made between subsidizing high value, low risk technology development versus high value, high risk technology developments. Twenty one A and R Technology tasks spanning a diverse array of technical concepts were evaluated using multiattribute decision analysis. Because of large uncertainties associated with characterizing the technologies, the methodology was modified to incorporate uncertainty. Eight attributes affected the rankings: initial cost, operation cost, crew productivity, safety, resource requirements, growth potential, and spinoff potential. The four attributes of initial cost, operations cost, crew productivity, and safety affected the rankings the most.

Smith, Jeffrey H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Preliminary flight-determined subsonic lift and drag characteristics of the X-29A forward-swept-wing airplane

The X-29A subsonic lift and drag characteristics determined, met, or exceeded predictions, particularly with respect to the drag polar shapes. Induced drag levels were as great as 20 percent less than wind tunnel estimates, particularly at coefficients of lift above 0.8. Drag polar shape comparisons with other modern fighter aircraft showed the X-29A to have a better overall aircraft aerodynamic Oswald efficiency factor for the same aspect ratio. Two significant problems arose in the data reduction and analysis process. These included uncertainties in angle of attack upwash calibration and effects of maneuver dynamics on drag levels. The latter problem resulted from significantly improper control surface automatic camber control scheduling. Supersonic drag polar results were not obtained during this phase because of a lack of engine instrumentation to measure afterburner fuel flow.

Hicks, John W.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Small-scale fluctuations of the X-ray background

Fluctuations of the diffuse X-ray background are investigated using the Einstein Observatory Deep Survey data. Small angular-scale variations of the numbers of counts in the energy range 0.8-3.5 keV in the central 32 x 32 sq arcmin of the IPC are analyzed by means of the two-point correlation function. It is shown that detector modulation contributes substantially to the observed fluctuations. Instrumental effects are estimated and subtracted from the raw observations. The residual fluctuations are used to estimate the log N-log S relation of the X-ray sources below the Einstein sensitivity limit. Taking into account numerous uncertainties involved in this analysis, it is shown that the amplitude of fluctuations observed in the Deep Survey data is consistent with a relatively small number of sources producing the X-ray background.

Soltan, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Skin friction measurements in high temperature high speed flows

An experimental investigation was conducted to measure skin friction along the chamber walls of supersonic combustors. A direct force measurement device was used to simultaneously measure an axial and transverse component of the small tangential shear force passing over a non-intrusive floating element. The floating head is mounted to a stiff cantilever beam arrangement with deflection due to the flow on the order of 0.00254 mm (0.0001 in.). This allowed the instrument to be a non-nulling type. A second gauge was designed with active cooling of the floating sensor head to eliminate non-uniform temperature effects between the sensor head and the surrounding wall. Samples of measurements made in combustor test facilities at NASA Langley Research Center and at the General Applied Science Laboratory (GASL) are presented. Skin friction coefficients between 0.001 - 0.005 were measured dependent on the facility and measurement location. Analysis of the measurement uncertainties indicate an accuracy to within +/- 10-15 percent of the streamwise component.

Schetz, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Measurement of high-degree solar oscillation frequencies

We present m-averaged solar p- and f-mode oscillation frequencies over the frequency range nu greater than 1.8 and less than 5.0 mHz and the spherical harmonic degree range l greater than or equal to 100 and less than or equal to 1200 from full-disk, 1000 x 1024 pixel, Ca II intensity images collected 1993 June 22-25 with a temporal cadence of 60 s. We itemize the sources and magnitudes of statistical and systematic uncertainties and of small frequency corrections, and we show that our frequencies represent an improvement in accuracy and coverage over previous measurements. Our frequencies agree at the 2 micro Hz level with Mount Wilson frequencies determined for l less than or equal to 600 from full-disk images, and we find systematic offsets of 10-20 micro Hz with respect to frequencies measured from Big Bear and La Palma observations. We give evidence that these latter offsets are indicative of spatial scaling uncertainties associated with the analysis of partial-disk images. In comparison with theory, our p-mode frequencies agree within 10 micro Hz of frequencies predicted by the Los Alamos model but are as much as 100 micro Hz smaller than frequencies predicted by the Denmark and Yale models at degrees near 1000. We also find systematic differences between our n = 0 frequencies and the frequencies closely agreed upon by all three models.

Bachmann, K. T.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Utilizing Flight Data to Update Aeroelastic Stability Estimates

Stability analysis of high performance aircraft must account for errors in the system model. A method for computing flutter margins that incorporates flight data has been developed using robust stability theory. This paper considers applying this method to update flutter margins during a post-flight or on-line analysis. Areas of modeling uncertainty that arise when using flight data with this method are investigated. The amount of conservatism in the resulting flutter margins depends on the flight data sets used to update the model. Post-flight updates of flutter margins for an F/A-18 are presented along with a simulation of on-line updates during a flight test.

Lind, Rick↗

NASA NTRS1997

Thermochemistry and Kinetics of the Cl+O2 Association Reaction

Laser flash photolysis of Cl2/O2 mixtures has been employed in conjunction with Cl((sup 2)P(sub 3/2)) detection by time-resolved fluorescence spectroscopy to investigate equilibration kinetics for the reactions Cl + O2 + O is in equilibrium with ClOO + O2 at temperatures of 181-200 K and O2 pressures of 15-40 Torr. The third-order rate coefficient for the association reaction at 186.5 +/- 5.5 K is (8.9 +/- 2.9) x 10(exp -33) cm(exp 6) molecule(exp -2) s(exp -1) and the equilibrium constant (K(p)) at 185.4 K is 18.9 atm(exp -1) (factor of 1.7 uncertainty). A third law analysis of our data leads to a value for the Cl-OO bond dissociation energy of 4.76 +/- 0.49 kcal mol(exp -1).

Nicovich, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

45 Km Horizontal Path Optical Link Experiment

Mountain-top to mountain-top optical link experiments have been initiated at JPL, in order to perform a systems level evaluation of optical communications. Progress made so far is reported. ne NASA, JPL developed optical communications demonstrator (OCD) is used to transmit a laser signal from Strawberry Peak (SP), located in the San Bernadino mountains of California. This laser beam is received by a 0.6 m aperture telescope at JPL's Table Mountain Facility (TMF), located in Wrightwood, California. The optical link is bi-directional with the TMF telescope transmitting a continuous 4-wave (cw) 780 run beacon and the OCD sending back a 840 nm, 100 - 500 Mbps pseudo noise (PN) modulated, laser beam. The optical link path is at an average altitude of 2 km above sea level, covers a range of 46.8 km and provides an atmospheric channel equivalent to approx. 4 air masses. Average received power measured at either end fall well within the uncertainties predicted by link analysis. The reduction in normalized intensity variance (sigma(sup 2, sub I)) for the 4-beam beacon, compared to each individual beam, at SP, was from approx. 0.68 to 0.22. With some allowance for intra-beam mis-alignment, this is consistent with incoherent averaging. The sigma(sup2, sub I) measured at TMF approx. 0.43 +/- 0.22 exceeded the expected aperture averaged value of less than 0.1, probably because of beam wander. The focused spot sizes of approx. 162 +/- 6 microns at the TMF Coude and approx. 64 +/- 3 microns on the OCD compare to the predicted size range of 52 - 172 microns and 57 - 93 microns, respectively. This is consistent with 4 - 5 arcsec of atmospheric "seeing". The preliminary evaluation of OCD's fine tracking indicates that the uncompensated tracking error is approx. 3.3 micro rad compared to approx. 1.7 micro rad observed in the laboratory. Fine tracking performance was intermittent, primarily due to beacon fades on the OCD tracking sensor. The best bit error rates observed while tracking worked were 1E-5 to 1E-6.

Biswas, A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Implementing a Nitrogen-Based Model for Autotrophic Respiration Using Satellite and Field Observations

The rate of carbon accumulation by terrestrial plant communities in a process-level, mechanistic modeling is the difference of the rate of gross photosynthesis by a canopy (A(sub g)) and autotrophic respiration (R) of the stand. Observations for different biomes often show that R to be a large and variable fraction of A(sub g), ca. 35% to 75%, although other studies suggest the ratio of R and A(sub g) to be less variable. Here, R has been calculated according to the two compartment model as being the sum of maintenance and growth components. The maintenance respiration of foliage and living fine roots for different biomes has been determined objectively from observed nitrogen content of these organs. The sapwood maintenance respiration is based on pipe theory, and checked against an independently derived equation considering sapwood biomass and its maintenance coefficient. The growth respiration has been calculated from the difference of A(sub g) and maintenance respiration. The A(sub g) is obtained as the product of biome-specific radiation use efficiency for gross photosynthesis under unstressed conditions and intercepted photosynthetically active radiation, and adjusted for stress. Calculations have been done using satellite and ground observations for 36 consecutive months (1987-1989) over large contiguous areas (ca. 10(exp 5) sq km) of boreal forests, crop land, temperate deciduous forest, temperate grassland, tropical deciduous forest, tropical evergreen forest, tropical savanna, and tundra. The ratio of annual respiration and gross photosynthesis, (R/A(sub g)), is found to be 0.5-0.6 for temperate and cold adopted biome areas, but somewhat higher for tropical biome areas (0.6-0.7). Interannual variation of the fluxes is found to be generally less than 15%. Calculated fluxes are compared with observations and several previous estimates. Results of sensitivity analysis are presented for uncertainties in parameterization and input data. It is found that uncertainty in determining maintenance respiration for tropical biomes is such that R/A(sub g) for these biomes could be similar to that for temperate biomes.

Choudhury, Bhaskar J.↗