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At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-fidelity microstructure-induced uncertainty quantification by advanced Monte Carlo methods

Quantifying uncertainty associated with the microstructure variation of a material can be a computationally daunting task, especially when dealing with advanced constitutive models and fine mesh resolutions in the crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM). Numerous studies have been conducted regarding the sensitivity of material properties and performance to the mesh resolution and choice of constitutive model. However, a unified approach that accounts for various fidelity parameters, such as mesh resolutions, integration time-steps and constitutive models simultaneously is currently lacking. Further, this paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach for computing the properties and performance of homogenized materials using CPFEM, that exploits a hierarchy of approximations with different levels of fidelity. In particular, we illustrate how multi-level sampling methods, such as multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) and multi-index Monte Carlo (MIMC), can be applied to assess the impact of variations in the microstructure of polycrystalline materials on the predictions of homogenized materials properties. We show that by adaptively exploiting the fidelity hierarchy, we can significantly reduce the number of microstructures required to reach a certain prescribed accuracy. Finally, we show how our approach can be extended to a multi-fidelity framework, where we allow the underlying constitutive model to be chosen from either a phenomenological plasticity model or a dislocation-density-based model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty propagation in feed-forward neural network models

We develop new uncertainty propagation methods for feed-forward neural network architectures with leaky ReLU activation functions subject to random perturbations in the input vectors. In particular, we derive analytical expressions for the probability density function (PDF) of the neural network output and its statistical moments as a function of the input uncertainty and the parameters of the network, i.e., weights and biases. A key finding is that an appropriate linearization of the leaky ReLU activation function yields accurate statistical results even for large perturbations in the input vectors. This can be attributed to the way information propagates through the network. We also propose new analytically tractable Gaussian copula surrogate models to approximate the full joint PDF of the neural network output. To validate our theoretical results, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations and a thorough error analysis on a multi-layer neural network representing a nonlinear integro-differential operator between two polynomial function spaces. Our findings demonstrate excellent agreement between the theoretical predictions and Monte Carlo simulations.

MLP networks↗
DOE OSTI2022

Polyethylene density uncertainty in the simulation of neutron detectors

Simulations with the Monte Carlo N-Particle® (MCNP®) code are frequently used to study neutron coincidence counters for international safeguards. Reducing sources of uncertainty enables more accurate simulations, which reduces the need for expensive or impossible measurements. Accurately specifying the density of polyethylene is crucial for accurate simulations. The density of polyethylene ranges from 0.88 to 0.97 g/cm 3 and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) ranges from about 0.944 to 0.965 g/cm 3 . The density of a specific detector should be measured exactly for the best simulations. Here, the density of the blue/white Active Well Coincidence Counter (AWCC) bulk polyethylene was measured to be 0.9594 +- 0.0013 g/cm 3 at 1-sigma confidence. The density was calculated from repeated measurements of the various polyethylene dimensions for volume, and weighing the polyethylene for the mass. The AWCC neutron detection efficiency was simulated for each polyethylene density. The relative range of efficiencies (3σ) was 3.4% for unspecified polyethylene, 0.9% for HDPE, and 0.3% for the measured density. The impact of modeling small features such as screws was also studied and was found to be a negligible 0.2%. Measuring polyethylene density can reduce its role in uncertainty from one of the largest to one of the smallest contributors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Verification of the sensitivity and uncertainty-based criticality safety validation techniques: ORNL’s SCALE case study

The use of sensitivity and uncertainty-based techniques has been well-developed in the neutronic community for criticality safety applications. Sensitivity techniques calculate the first-order relative variations in keff due to relative cross-section variations by isotope, reaction type, and incident neutron energy. The result is a vector of sensitivity coefficients which is folded with prior cross-section uncertainties to calculate the so-called similarity indices. Similarity indices are integral quantities which serve as useful mathematical measures for assessing the relevance of existing or new experiments to given application conditions, representing design systems for which the models are to be validated. Despite their importance for a wide range of validation activities, the peer-reviewed literature is non-existent on the development of rigorous verification analysis for their calculated values. Thus, this manuscript proposes a simple non-intrusive method to calculate similarity indices, serving as an independent verification tool for their evaluation. The manuscript derives the theoretical basis for the proposed verification analysis. Next, the verification analysis is applied to the ORNL’s SCALE code suite which employs adjoint-based methods to calculate similarity indices. Numerical experiments using a number of well-known benchmark experiments are employed to verify the calculation of the similarity indices.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning based rate optimization under geologic uncertainty

We propose a novel approach for rate optimization during a waterflood under geologic uncertainty in reservoir properties such as permeability and porosity. The traditional approach typically involves several runs of the forward simulator. This may not scale well when the optimization is to be performed at the full field-level and over multiple geologic realizations. A machine-learning (ML) based approach which is quick and scalable for rate optimization over multiple geologic realizations is proposed instead. The training data for the model is generated by running the forward simulator with randomly assigned well rates using multiple geologic realizations. A reduced order representation of the permeability heterogeneity in each of the realizations is derived using a grid connectivity transformation (GCT). This step involves finding basis functions corresponding to the different modal frequencies of the grid connectivity represented by the grid Laplacian. The projection of the heterogeneous property field along these basis functions gives the basis coefficients that form the reduced order representation. Subsequently, for each training datapoint, streamlines are traced and the minimum time of flight (TOF) representing the tracer breakthrough time at each producer is recorded. The basis coefficients and well rates are fed to a machine learning model as input and the minimum TOF at the producers forms the output of the model. This trained model can then be used along with an optimizer for computing the optimal injection rates to maximize the injection sweep efficiency. This corresponds to minimizing the variance in the minimum TOF within each well group. Different architectures of neural network are tested using 5-fold cross validation to decide the best ML model to compute the streamline time of flight. The trained model is used to perform well rate optimization over multiple realizations of geology by using a risk tolerance penalty. The optimal well rates thus obtained are compared with two cases: a) equal well rates assigned to all injectors and producers and b) well rates obtained by optimizing over a single realization without considering the uncertainty in geology. The optimal well rates are seen to offer better oil recovery and sweep efficiency than both cases.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty estimation of bifurcated solutions in the Rayleigh–Bénard problem for advanced nuclear reactors applications

Multiphysics models of nuclear reactors frequently comprise nonlinear systems of equations. The nonlinear nature of these models could lead to solution bifurcations, where a small change in a certain parameter, e.g., the thermophysical properties of the coolant, can lead to a sudden change in the system’s behavior. At the point in parameter space where this happens, called a critical point, the Jacobian matrix of the model’s nonlinear operator becomes singular potentially permitting multiple solutions to coexist. In this paper, we perform uncertainty estimation (UE) in a parameter range that includes bifurcated solutions within the context of Rayleigh–Bénard problem. We perform this analysis assuming uncertain temperature difference, and tilt angle for the iterative solution algorithm with a unit Prandtl number (Pr = 1). Also, we perform this analysis under uncertain thermophysical properties for both FLiBe molten salt and liquid sodium as working fluid. We deploy two approaches to compute statistical moments for the resulting distributions of selected flow-field variables. The first approach is the blind computation of the mean and the standard deviation without any consideration of solution bifurcation, while the second approach utilizes k-means clustering to cluster each branch’s solutions together and compute separate statistical moments for each branch. The statistical distributions are obtained by perturbing the selected parameters about nominal values that correspond to a solution on one of the valid branches, and that solution is used as initial guess for the iterative solution algorithm. We found that perturbation of any parameter when its nominal value is close to its critical point always leads to branch jumping, i.e., the iterations converge to a solution on a branch different from the branch of the initial guess. This produces a statistical ensemble comprised of fundamentally different solutions leading to wrong mean values and uncertainty estimates, whereas clustering provides an efficient way to deal with this type of computation. This work is important for developing Gen IV nuclear systems because many of these systems rely on natural convection for cooling especially in accident conditions.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A review of risk and uncertainty assessment for geologic carbon storage

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations play a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Risk and uncertainty assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. In this review, the use and progress of risk assessment for GCS over the last few decades are examined. Here, we use the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP), which is one of the seven regional partnerships supported by the United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. Additionally, future trends and requirements for risk assessment in GCS are discussed. The information provided in this review can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply it effectively in large-scale GCS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Early calendar life and health prediction of silicon batteries via machine learning with uncertainty quantification

Lithium-ion batteries with silicon anodes promise high energy density but are limited by calendar lifetime. Reducing the long iteration time to obtain experimental results requires predicting calendar lifetime early in a cell's life. In this study, we demonstrate that lightweight machine learning models with feature engineering can provide calendar lifetime estimates from early electrochemical signals. After 1 month of electrochemical aging, the best models achieve 10% error in calendar-life prediction and can separate "bad" from "good" lifetime cells with a mean F1 score of 0.857. As battery systems exhibit inherent variability, four methods for uncertainty quantification are compared, and confidence intervals are demonstrated with an uncertainty of +-3.6 months in lifetime prediction. A feature importance analysis indicates that early patterns in voltage decay are the strongest indicators of calendar lifetime. Finally, this modeling approach has high error when generalizing to new electrode chemistries or testing conditions but with appropriately low confidence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification in multivariable regression for material property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including multi-scale and multi-physics nature of materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets, etc. In this work, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) approach for UQ, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in materials to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of creep tests demonstrates that this method produces point predictions and uncertainty estimations that are competitive or exceed the performance of conventional UQ methods such as Gaussian Process Regression. Additionally, we evaluate the suitability of employing UQ in an active learning scenario and report competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Neutron Shield Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Uncertainty quantification from radiation transport calculations was conducted using a Bayesian inference approach. A surrogate model, using a convolutional neural network, was employed to emulate the neutron fluence, which was simulated with a Monte Carlo radiation transport model. This allowed for a computationally cheap approach to evaluate input parameters and to sample their corresponding posterior probability distributions. Experimental data from the literature were employed to perform uncertainty quantification studies for concrete shields. As a result, the method is a nonintrusive approach that enables studies with multiple input parameters and can be applied to any radiation transport model.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Analytic Benchmark for Neutron Boltzmann Transport with Downscattering—Part IV: PFNS and $\bar{ν}$ Uncertainty Propagation

An analytic benchmark with continuous-energy cross sections was previously derived to validate criticality calculations. Here, to extend the utility of the analytic benchmark to verify the implementation of $\bar{ν}$ and prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) uncertainty propagation methods, new simplified forms that are dependent on the incident (fission-causing) neutron energy, as well as the outgoing neutron energy for the PFNS, are introduced in this work. The analytical forms for the flux and adjoint flux are derived for the extended benchmark and used to determine the 𝑘-eigenvalue sensitivity to $\bar{ν}$ and PFNS. The 𝑘-eigenvalue uncertainty due to $\bar{ν}$ and PFNS is calculated for the analytic benchmark using simplified$\bar{ν}$ and PFNS representations based on the ENDF-B/VIII.0 239 Pu evaluation. Because of the low sensitivity of the analytic benchmark to the physical PFNS, a nonphysical high-sensitivity PFNS is also presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding PDF uncertainty in W boson mass measurements*

Abstract We study the dependence of the transverse mass distribution of charged leptons and the missing energy on parton distributions (PDFs) adapted to W boson mass measurements at the CDF and ATLAS experiments. We compare the shape variations of the distribution induced by different PDFs and find that the spread of predictions from different PDF sets can be significantly larger than the PDF uncertainty predicted by a specific PDF set. We suggest analyzing the experimental data using up-to-date PDFs to gain a better understanding of the PDF uncertainties in W boson mass measurements. We also perform a series of Lagrange multiplier scans to identify the constraints on the transverse mass distribution imposed by individual data sets in the CT18 global analysis. In the case of the CDF measurement, the distribution is mostly sensitive to d -quark PDFs in the intermediate x region, which are largely constrained by DIS and Drell-Yan data on deuteron targets and Tevatron lepton charge asymmetry data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sparsifying priors for Bayesian uncertainty quantification in model discovery

We propose a probabilistic model discovery method for identifying ordinary differential equations governing the dynamics of observed multivariate data. Our method is based on the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) framework, where models are expressed as sparse linear combinations of pre-specified candidate functions. Promoting parsimony through sparsity leads to interpretable models that generalize to unknown data. Instead of targeting point estimates of the SINDy coefficients, we estimate these coefficients via sparse Bayesian inference. The resulting method, uncertainty quantification SINDy (UQ-SINDy), quantifies not only the uncertainty in the values of the SINDy coefficients due to observation errors and limited data, but also the probability of inclusion of each candidate function in the linear combination. UQ-SINDy promotes robustness against observation noise and limited data, interpretability (in terms of model selection and inclusion probabilities) and generalization capacity for out-of-sample forecast. Sparse inference for UQ-SINDy employs Markov chain Monte Carlo, and we explore two sparsifying priors: the spike and slab prior, and the regularized horseshoe prior. UQ-SINDy is shown to discover accurate models in the presence of noise and with orders-of-magnitude less data than current model discovery methods, thus providing a transformative method for real-world applications which have limited data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of transition operators in the empirical shell model

While empirical shell model calculations have successfully described low-lying nuclear data for decades, only recently has significant effort been made to quantify the uncertainty in such calculations. Here, in this study, we quantify the statistical error in effective parameters for transition operators in empirical calculations in the sd (1s 1/2 -0d 3/2 -0d 5/2 ) valence space, specifically the quenching of Gamow-Teller transitions, effective charges for electric quadrupole (E2) transitions, and the effective orbital and spin couplings for magnetic dipole (M1) transitions and moments. We find the quenching factor for Gamow-Teller transitions relative to free-space values is tightly constrained. For effective M1 couplings, we found isoscalar components more constrained than isovector. This detailed quantification of uncertainties, while highly empirical, nonetheless is an important step towards interpretation of experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-Proof Hosting Capacity with Surrogate Affine Policy

Physical constraints must be enforced when dis-tributed energy resources, such as PV, are integrated into distribution network. Hosting capacity (HC) is thus introduced to define the maximum renewable that distribution system can accommodate. When the grid is further pushed towards low-carbon, many research efforts are devoted to increasing HC. Security and cost-efficiency become even more important in determining HC. This work proposes an uncertainty-proof HC with surrogate affine policy. Flexible resources are leveraged to increase HC. We propose a novel hybrid two-stage AC model with variable uncertainty set. An iterative algorithm is designed to solve the problem. The proposed model and solution approach are validated in modified 141-node feeders, and HC performance is also analyzed.

hosting capacity↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Quantification of Capacitor Switching Transient Location using Machine Learning

Identification of capacitor switching transient location provides valuable insight into the state of the associated equipment. Machine learning (ML) models, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in signal location. However, ML models are data driven whose predictions are affected by noise in data and may also suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to new conditions. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is necessary to ensure model trustworthiness and avoid overconfident predictions in extrapolation. Here, in this work, we propose a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, to quantify prediction uncertainty of ML models and integrate the method with CNNs for transient source location. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks and uses root-finding methods to determine the interval precisely. Additionally, PI3NN can identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a nonstationary condition to avoid overconfident prediction. Results indicate that with PI3NN, transient signals are not only correctly identified, but when said signals are subject to corruptions characteristic of an actual power monitoring system (e.g. non-ideal sensors), the model recognizes when it is uncertain about its predictions, effectively letting the user know when to accept or discard the results.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distribution System Behind-the-Meter DERs: Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Control

This paper summarizes the three-year technical activities of the IEEE Task Force (TF) on behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DERs): estimation, uncertainty quantification, and control. The potential grid services from BTM DERs are discussed in detail. The paper also reviews the state-of-the-art for BTM DERs visibility, uncertainty quantification, and, optimization and control. Furthermore, different aspects of the market structures associated with BTM DERs are covered, including emerging market and business models. Finally, needs and recommendations are provided for additional areas such as system protection, computing capabilities, algorithm development, market structure design, cyberinfrastructure and security, and hardware and software developments.

behind-the-meter↗