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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,153 records · Page 64
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Lowering post‐construction yield assessment uncertainty through better wind plant power curves

Abstract Many operational analyses of wind power plants require a statistical relationship, which can be called the wind plant power curve, to be developed between wind plant energy production and concurrent atmospheric variables. Currently, a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution is the industry standard for post‐construction yield assessments. Here, we evaluate the benefits in augmenting this conventional approach by testing alternative regressions performed with multiple inputs, at a finer time resolution, and using nonlinear machine‐learning algorithms. We utilize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open‐source software package OpenOA to assess wind plant power curves for 10 wind plants. When a univariate generalized additive model at daily or hourly resolution is used, regression uncertainty is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 1.0 % and 1.2 % (corresponding to a −59 % and −80 % relative change), respectively, compared to a univariate linear regression at monthly resolution; also, a more accurate assessment of the mean long‐term wind plant production is achieved. Additional input variables also reduce the regression uncertainty: when temperature is added as an input to the conventional monthly linear regression, the operational analysis uncertainty connected to regression is reduced, in absolute terms, by up to 0.5 % (−43 % relative change) for wind power plants with strong seasonal variability. Adding input variables to the machine‐learning model at daily resolution can further reduce regression uncertainty, with up to a −10 % relative change. Based on these results, we conclude that a multivariate nonlinear regression at daily or hourly resolution should be recommended for assessing wind plant power curves.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Inference for Integrating Yarrowia lipolytica Multiomics Datasets with Metabolic Modeling

Optimizing the metabolism of microbial cell factories for yields and titers is a critical step for economically viable production of bioproducts and biofuels. In this process, tuning the expression of individual enzymes to obtain the desired pathway flux is a challenging step, in which data from separate multiomics techniques must be integrated with existing biological knowledge to determine where changes should be made. Following a design-build-test-learn strategy, building on recent advances in Bayesian metabolic control analysis, we identify in this work key enzymes in the oleaginous yeast Yarrowia lipolytica that correlate with the production of itaconate by integrating a metabolic model with multiomics measurements. To this extent, we quantify the uncertainty for a variety of key parameters, known as flux control coefficients (FCCs), needed to improve the bioproduction of target metabolites and statistically obtain key correlations between the measured enzymes and boundary flux. Based on the top five significant FCCs and five correlated enzymes, our results show phosphoglycerate mutase, acetyl-CoA synthetase (ACSm), carbonic anhydrase (HCO3E), pyrophosphatase (PPAm), and homoserine dehydrogenase (HSDxi) enzymes in rate-limiting reactions that can lead to increased itaconic acid production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transforming microseismic clouds into near real-time visualization of the growing hydraulic fracture

SUMMARY Microseismic observations during unconventional reservoir stimulation are typically seen as a proxy for clusters of hydraulic fractures and the extent of the stimulated reservoir. Such straightforward interpretation is often misleading and fails to provide a physically reasonable image of the fracturing process. This paper demonstrates the application of a physics-based machine learning algorithm which enables a rapid and accurate fracture mapping from the microseismic data. Our training and validation data set relies on a history-matched geomechanical modelling workflow implemented in GEOS software for the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site 1 (HFTS-1) project. For this study we augmented the simulated fracture growth through geostatistical modelling of induced seismicity, so that the synthetic microseismic catalogue matches the main statistical properties of the field observations. We formulated the problem of mapping the actual fracture in the clutter of events to parallel common video segmentation workflows: several past video frames (microseismic density snapshots) are passed through a deep convolutional network to classify whether a given voxel is associated with a fracture or intact rock. We found that for accurate fracture mapping, the network’s input and architecture must be augmented to incorporate the fluid injection parameters (pressure, rate, concentration of proppant, and location of the perforation within the cluster). The error rate for the network reached as little as 10 per cent of the fracture area, while a conventional microseismic interpretation approach yielded ∼300 per cent. Our approach also yields must faster predictions than conventional methods (minutes instead of weeks), and could enable engineers to make rapid decisions regarding engineering parameters (pumping rate, viscosity) in real time during stimulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Mark 4A project training evaluation

A participant evaluation of a Deep Space Network (DSN) is described. The Mark IVA project is an implementation to upgrade the tracking and data acquisition systems of the dSN. Approximately six hundred DSN operations and engineering maintenance personnel were surveyed. The survey obtained a convenience sample including trained people within the population in order to learn what training had taken place and to what effect. The survey questionnaire used modifications of standard rating scales to evaluate over one hundred items in four training dimensions. The scope of the evaluation included Mark IVA vendor training, a systems familiarization training seminar, engineering training classes, a on-the-job training. Measures of central tendency were made from participant rating responses. Chi square tests of statistical significance were performed on the data. The evaluation results indicated that the effects of different Mark INA training methods could be measured according to certain ratings of technical training effectiveness, and that the Mark IVA technical training has exhibited positive effects on the abilities of DSN personnel to operate and maintain new Mark IVA equipment systems.

Stephenson, S. N.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Proceedings of the Workshop on Change of Representation and Problem Reformulation

The proceedings of the third Workshop on Change of representation and Problem Reformulation is presented. In contrast to the first two workshops, this workshop was focused on analytic or knowledge-based approaches, as opposed to statistical or empirical approaches called 'constructive induction'. The organizing committee believes that there is a potential for combining analytic and inductive approaches at a future date. However, it became apparent at the previous two workshops that the communities pursuing these different approaches are currently interested in largely non-overlapping issues. The constructive induction community has been holding its own workshops, principally in conjunction with the machine learning conference. While this workshop is more focused on analytic approaches, the organizing committee has made an effort to include more application domains. We have greatly expanded from the origins in the machine learning community. Participants in this workshop come from the full spectrum of AI application domains including planning, qualitative physics, software engineering, knowledge representation, and machine learning.

Lowry, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Bayesian learning

In 1983 and 1984, the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) detected 5,425 stellar objects and measured their infrared spectra. In 1987 a program called AUTOCLASS used Bayesian inference methods to discover the classes present in these data and determine the most probable class of each object, revealing unknown phenomena in astronomy. AUTOCLASS has rekindled the old debate on the suitability of Bayesian methods, which are computationally intensive, interpret probabilities as plausibility measures rather than frequencies, and appear to depend on a subjective assessment of the probability of a hypothesis before the data were collected. Modern statistical methods have, however, recently been shown to also depend on subjective elements. These debates bring into question the whole tradition of scientific objectivity and offer scientists a new way to take responsibility for their findings and conclusions.

Denning, Peter J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Life Models for Li-Ion Batteries Using Penalized Regression and Bilevel Optimization

Reduced-order physics-based life models are extremely useful for rapidly predicting battery state-of-health and for simulating battery lifetime in arbitrary aging conditions. However, identification of well-parameterized models is difficult. This is because, for maximum usefulness in predicting lifetime under a variety of conditions, aging test data exhibits many degradation mechanisms, which all need to be accurately modeled. However, because aging tests are time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-format batteries, a minimum of tests are conducted while probing many stress factors. Building a well-parameterized model is then very challenging: an under-parameterized model will neglect critical degradation modes, and an over-parameterized model will extrapolate poorly to new testing conditions. To complicate this matter, the functional form of the model for any individual degradation rate can be very difficult to identify. In this work, the statistical tools of penalized regression and bilevel optimization are used to help identify both the functional forms of and optimize the parameters of reduced-order life models, accelerating identification of robust models. Model robustness is demonstrated through traditional statistics methods of cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification through bootstrap resampling and Monte-Carlo simulation, and simulation of real-world use cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal Hysteresis and Ordering Behavior of Magnetic Skyrmion Lattices

The physics of phase transitions in two-dimensional (2D) systems underpins research in diverse fields including statistical mechanics, nanomagnetism, and soft condensed matter. However, many aspects of 2D phase transitions are still not well understood, including the effects of interparticle potential, polydispersity, and particle shape. Magnetic skyrmions are chiral spin-structure quasi-particles that form two-dimensional lattices. Here, in this study, we show, by real-space imaging using in situ cryo-Lorentz transmission electron microscopy coupled with machine learning image analysis, the ordering behavior of Néel skyrmion lattices in van der Waals Fe 3 GeTe 2 . We demonstrate a distinct change in the skyrmion size distribution during field-cooling, which leads to a loss of lattice order and an evolution of the skyrmion liquid phase. Remarkably, the lattice order is restored during field heating and demonstrates a thermal hysteresis. This behavior is explained by the skyrmion energy landscape and demonstrates the potential to control the lattice order in 2D phase transitions.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A machine learning approach for efficient multi-dimensional integration

Many physics problems involve integration in multi-dimensional space whose analytic solution is not available. The integrals can be evaluated using numerical integration methods, but it requires a large computational cost in some cases, so an efficient algorithm plays an important role in solving the physics problems. We propose a novel numerical multi-dimensional integration algorithm using machine learning (ML). After training a ML regression model to mimic a target integrand, the regression model is used to evaluate an approximation of the integral. Then, the difference between the approximation and the true answer is calculated to correct the bias in the approximation of the integral induced by ML prediction errors. Because of the bias correction, the final estimate of the integral is unbiased and has a statistically correct error estimation. Three ML models of multi-layer perceptron, gradient boosting decision tree, and Gaussian process regression algorithms are investigated. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on six different families of integrands that typically appear in physics problems at various dimensions and integrand difficulties. The results show that, for the same total number of integrand evaluations, the new algorithm provides integral estimates with more than an order of magnitude smaller uncertainties than those of the VEGAS algorithm in most of the test cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inexact iterative numerical linear algebra for neural network-based spectral estimation and rare-event prediction

Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are often not obvious. The leading eigenfunctions of the transition operator are useful for visualization, and they can provide an efficient basis for computing statistics, such as the likelihood and average time of events (predictions). Here, we develop inexact iterative linear algebra methods for computing these eigenfunctions (spectral estimation) and making predictions from a dataset of short trajectories sampled at finite intervals. We demonstrate the methods on a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization and a high-dimensional model of a biomolecular system. Implications for the prediction problem in reinforcement learning are discussed.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Well Do We Know the Neutron-Matter Equation of State at the Densities Inside Neutron Stars? A Bayesian Approach with Correlated Uncertainties

Here, we introduce a new framework for quantifying correlated uncertainties of the infinite-matter equation of state derived from chiral effective field theory (𝜒⁢EFT ). Bayesian machine learning via Gaussian processes with physics-based hyperparameters allows us to efficiently quantify and propagate theoretical uncertainties of the equation of state, such as 𝜒⁢EFT truncation errors, to derived quantities. We apply this framework to state-of-the-art many-body perturbation theory calculations with nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions up to fourth order in the 𝜒⁢EFT expansion. This produces the first statistically robust uncertainty estimates for key quantities of neutron stars. We give results up to twice nuclear saturation density for the energy per particle, pressure, and speed of sound of neutron matter, as well as for the nuclear symmetry energy and its derivative. At nuclear saturation density, the predicted symmetry energy and its slope are consistent with experimental constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Role of Formal Experiment Design in Hypersonic Flight System Technology Development

Hypersonic airbreathing engine (scramjet) powered vehicles are being considered to replace conventional rocket-powered launch systems. Effective utilization of scramjet engines requires careful integration with the air vehicle. This integration synergistically combines aerodynamic forces with propulsive cycle functions of the engine. Due to the highly integrated nature of the hypersonic vehicle design problem, the large flight envelope, and the large number of design variables, the use of a statistical design approach in design is effective. Modern Design-of-Experiments (MDOE) has been used throughout the Hyper-X program, for both systems analysis and experimental testing. Application of MDOE fall into four categories: (1) experimental testing; (2) studies of unit phenomena; (3) refining engine design; and (4) full vehicle system optimization. The MDOE process also provides analytical models, which are also used to document lessons learned, supplement low-level design tools, and accelerate future studies. This paper will discuss the design considerations for scramjet-powered vehicles, specifics of MDOE utilized for Hyper-X, and present highlights from the use of these MDOE methods within the Hyper-X Program.

McClinton, Charles R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-lapse seismic data inversion for estimating reservoir parameters using deep learning

Geologic carbon sequestration involves the injection of captured carbon dioxide ([Formula: see text]) into subsurface formations for long-term storage. The movement and fate of the injected [Formula: see text] plume is of great concern to regulators because monitoring helps to identify potential leakage zones and determines the possibility of safe long-term storage. To address this concern, we design a deep-learning framework for [Formula: see text] saturation monitoring to determine the geologic controls on the storage of the injected [Formula: see text]. We use different combinations of porosities and permeabilities for a given reservoir to generate saturation and velocity models. We train the deep-learning model with a few time-lapse seismic images and their corresponding changes in saturation values for a particular [Formula: see text] injection site. The deep-learning model learns the mapping from the change in the time-lapse seismic response to the change in [Formula: see text] saturation during the training phase. We then apply the trained model to data sets comprising different time-lapse seismic image slices (corresponding to different time instances) generated using different porosity and permeability distributions that are not part of the training to estimate the [Formula: see text] saturation values along with the plume extent. Our algorithm provides a deep-learning assisted framework for the direct estimation of [Formula: see text] saturation values and plume migration in heterogeneous formations using the time-lapse seismic data. Our method improves the efficiency of time-lapse inversion by streamlining the large number of intermediate steps in the conventional time-lapse inversion workflow. This method also helps to incorporate the geologic uncertainty for a given reservoir by accounting for the statistical distribution of porosity and permeability during the training phase. Tests on different examples verify the effectiveness of our approach.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning analysis of perovskite oxides grown by molecular beam epitaxy

Reflection high-energy electron diffraction (RHEED) is a ubiquitous in situ molecular beam epitaxial (MBE) characterization tool. Although RHEED can be a powerful means for crystal surface structure determination, it is often used as a static qualitative surface characterization method at discrete intervals during a growth. A full analysis of RHEED data collected during the entirety of MBE growths is made possible using principle component analysis (PCA) and $\textit{k}$-means clustering to examine significant boundaries that occur in the temporal clusters grouped from RHEED data and identify statistically significant patterns. This process is applied to data from homoepitaxial SrTiO 3 growths, heteroepitaxial SrTiO 3 grown on scandate substrates, BaSnO 3 films grown on SrTiO 3 substrates, and LaNiO 3 films grown on SrTiO 3 substrates. We report this analysis may provide additional insights into the surface evolution and transitions in growth modes at precise times and depths during growth, and that video archival of an entire RHEED image sequence may be able to provide more insight and control overgrowth processes and film quality.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Perspectives on Systematic Cloud Microphysics Scheme Development With Machine Learning

Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small‐scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. Although too small in scale to be explicitly resolved in any large‐eddy simulation, weather, or climate model, the representation of cloud microphysical processes has significant impact at the climate scale. Current microphysical schemes are limited by both parametric uncertainty, linked to uncertainty in physical parameter values, and structural uncertainty, arising from incomplete physical understanding of the processes at play or approximations made for computational efficiency. Recent advances in the application of machine learning (ML) to the physical sciences show significant potential for minimizing these limitations by leveraging high‐fidelity simulations and observations. Here we outline the challenges that must be addressed to apply ML toward cloud microphysics scheme development. This perspectives paper synthesizes recent progress in using data‐driven methods, including ML, to improve cloud microphysics parameterizations and highlights opportunities to address key uncertainties. We discuss the roles of aleatoric (irreducible, or statistical) and epistemic (reducible, or systematic) errors in contributing to microphysics parameterization uncertainty. ML can leverage observations to improve microphysical schemes via bottom‐up and top‐down constraints. Methods such as differentiable programming and ML‐enhanced sampling strategies and the creation of large scale benchmark data sets promise to bridge the gap between observations and models and to improve the consistency of cloud microphysical representation across temporal and spatial scales.

Lamb, Kara D. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observation of the singly Cabibbo-suppressed decay Λ c + → p π 0

Utilizing 4.5 fb − 1 of e + e − annihilation data collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider at center-of-mass energies between 4.600 and 4.699 GeV, the first observation of the singly Cabibbo-suppressed decay Λ c + → p π 0 is presented, with a statistical significance of 5.4 σ . The ratio of the branching fractions of Λ c + → p π 0 and Λ c + → p η is measured as B ( Λ c + → p π 0 ) / B ( Λ c + → p η ) = ( 0.120 ± 0.02 6 stat ± 0.00 7 syst ) . This result resolves the longstanding discrepancy between earlier experimental searches, providing both a decisive conclusion and valuable input for QCD-inspired theoretical models. A sophisticated deep learning approach using a Transformer-based architecture is employed to distinguish the signal from the prevalent hadronic backgrounds, complemented by thorough validation and systematic uncertainty quantification. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Ablikim, M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A study of the portability of an Ada system in the software engineering laboratory (SEL)

A particular porting effort is discussed, and various statistics on analyzing the portability of Ada and the total staff months (overall and by phase) required to accomplish the rehost, are given. This effort is compared to past experiments on the rehosting of FORTRAN systems. The discussion includes an analysis of the types of errors encountered during the rehosting, the changes required to rehost the system, experiences with the Alsys IBM Ada compiler, the impediments encountered, and the lessons learned during this study.

Jun, Linda O.↗