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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ODDS: Real-Time Object Detection Using Depth Sensors on Embedded GPUs

Detecting objects that are carried when someone enters or exits a room is very useful for a wide range of smart building applications including safety, security, and energy efficiency. While there has been a significant amount of work on object recognition using large-scale RGB image datasets, RGB cameras are too privacy invasive in many smart building applications and they work poorly in the dark. Additionally, deep object detection networks require powerful and expensive GPUs. We propose a novel system that we call ODDS (Object Detector using a Depth Sensor) that can detect objects in real-time using only raw depth data on an embedded GPU, e.g., NVIDIA Jetson TX1. Hence, our solution is significantly less privacy invasive (even if the sensor is compromised) and less expensive, while maintaining a comparable accuracy with state of the art solutions. Specifically, we resort to training a deep convolutional neural network using raw depth images, with curriculum based learning to improve accuracy by considering the complexity and imbalance in object classes and developing a sparse coding based technique that speeds up the system ~2× with minimal loss of accuracy. Based on a complete implementation and real-world evaluation, we see ODDS achieve 80.14% mean average precision in object detection in real-time (5-6 FPS) on a Jetson TX1.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Heat Transfer Problems

Abstract Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have gained popularity across different engineering fields due to their effectiveness in solving realistic problems with noisy data and often partially missing physics. In PINNs, automatic differentiation is leveraged to evaluate differential operators without discretization errors, and a multitask learning problem is defined in order to simultaneously fit observed data while respecting the underlying governing laws of physics. Here, we present applications of PINNs to various prototype heat transfer problems, targeting in particular realistic conditions not readily tackled with traditional computational methods. To this end, we first consider forced and mixed convection with unknown thermal boundary conditions on the heated surfaces and aim to obtain the temperature and velocity fields everywhere in the domain, including the boundaries, given some sparse temperature measurements. We also consider the prototype Stefan problem for two-phase flow, aiming to infer the moving interface, the velocity and temperature fields everywhere as well as the different conductivities of a solid and a liquid phase, given a few temperature measurements inside the domain. Finally, we present some realistic industrial applications related to power electronics to highlight the practicality of PINNs as well as the effective use of neural networks in solving general heat transfer problems of industrial complexity. Taken together, the results presented herein demonstrate that PINNs not only can solve ill-posed problems, which are beyond the reach of traditional computational methods, but they can also bridge the gap between computational and experimental heat transfer.

Engineering↗

Platform Of Optimal Experiment Management

The platform of optimal experiment management, POEM, powered with automated machine learning to accelerate the discovery of optimal solutions, and automatically guide the design of experiments to be evaluated. POEM currently supports 1) random model explorations for experiment design, 2) sparse grid model explorations with Gaussian Polynomial Chaos surrogate model to accelerate experiment design ,3) time-dependent model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to identify the importance features for experiment design, 4) model calibrations via Bayesian inference to integrate experiments to improve model performance, and 5) Bayesian optimization for optimal experimental design. In addition, POEM aims to simplify the process of experimental design for users, enabling them to analyze the data with minimal human intervention, and improving the technological output from research activities.

Wang, Congjian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I↗

Calibration of the E3SM Land Model Using Surrogate‐Based Global Optimization

Abstract Calibration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), land model (ELMv0) is challenging because of its model complexity, strong model nonlinearity, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near‐optimal solution within an affordable time. The goal of this study is to calibrate some of the ELMv0 parameters to improve model projection of carbon fluxes. We propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse‐grid based surrogates. We first use advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the ELMv0, and then calibrate the surrogate model in the optimization process. As the surrogate model is a polynomial whose evaluation is fast, it can be efficiently evaluated a sufficiently large number of times in the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate eight parameters against five years of net ecosystem exchange, total leaf area index, and latent heat flux data from the U.S. Missouri Ozark flux tower. The calibrated model is then used for predicting the three variables in the following 4 years. The results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the ELMv0 with a relatively small number of SG points, i.e., a few ELMv0 simulations that can be fully parallel. And, the application of the optimized parameters leads to a better model performance and a higher predictive capability than the default parameter values in the ELMv0.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Intercalation Chemistry with Multiredox Reactions by Sparse Lattice Models in Disordered Rocksalt Cathodes

Modern battery materials can contain many elements with substantial site disorder, and their configurational state has been shown to be critical for their performance. The intercalation voltage profile is a critical parameter to evaluate the performance of energy storage. The application of commonly used cluster expansion techniques to model the intercalation thermodynamics of such systems ab initio is challenged by the combinatorial increase in configurational degrees of freedom as the number of species grows. Such challenges necessitate the efficient generation of lattice models without overfitting and proper sampling of the configurational space under the requirement of charge balance in ionic systems. In this work, we introduce a combined approach that addresses these challenges by (1) constructing a robust cluster expansion Hamiltonian using the sparse regression technique, including -norm regularization and structural hierarchy; and (2) implementing semigrand-canonical Monte Carlo to sample charge-balanced ionic configurations using the table-exchange method and an ensemble average approach. These techniques are applied to a disordered rocksalt oxyfluoride (LMNOF) that is part of a family of promising earth-abundant cathode materials. The simulated voltage profile is found to be in good agreement with experimental data and particularly provides a clear demonstration of the and oxygen contributions to the redox potential as a function of content.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Robust Resilient Signal Reconstruction under Adversarial Attacks

We consider the problem of signal reconstruction for a system under sparse signal corruption by a malicious agent. The reconstruction problem follows the standard error coding problem that has been studied extensively in the literature. We include a new challenge of robust estimation of the attack support. The problem is then cast as a constrained optimization problem merging promising techniques in the area of deep learning and estimation theory. A pruning algorithm is developed to reduce the "false positive" uncertainty of data-driven attack localization results, thereby improving the probability of correct signal reconstruction. Sufficient conditions for the correct reconstruction and the associated reconstruction error bounds are obtained for both exact and inexact attack support estimation. Moreover, a simulation of a water distribution system is presented to validate the proposed techniques.

Robust, Signal reconstruction, Resilient estimator↗

Using MODIS estimates of fractional snow cover area to improve streamflow forecasts in interior Alaska

Remotely sensed snow cover observations give an opportunity to improve operational snow melt and stream flow forecasting in remote regions. This is particularly true in Alaska, where remote basins and a spatially and temporally sparse gaging network plague efforts to understand and forecast the hydrology of subarctic boreal basins and where climate change is leading to rapid shifts in basin function. In this study,the operational framework employed by the United States (US) National Weather Service, including the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center, is adapted to integrate Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remotely sensed observations of fractional snow cover area (fSCA) to determine if these data improve streamflow forecasts in interior Alaska river basins. Two versions of MODIS fSCA are tested against a base case extent of snow cover derived by aerial depletion curves: the MODIS 10A1(MOD10A1) and the MODIS Snow Cover Area and Grain size (MODSCAG) product over the period 2000–2010. Observed runoff is compared to simulated runoff to calibrate both iterations of the model. MODIS-forced simulations haveimproved snow depletion timing compared with snow telemetry sites in the basins, with discernable increases in skill for the streamflow simulations.The MODSCAG fSCA version provides moderate increases in skill but is similar to the MOD10A1 results. The basins with the largest improvement in streamflow simulations have the sparsest streamflow observations.Considering the numerous low-quality gages (discontinuous, short, or unreliable) and ungauged systems throughout the high-latitude regions of the globe, this result is valuable and indicates the utility of the MODIS fSCAdata in these regions. Additionally, while improvements in predicted discharge values are subtle, the snow model better represents the physical conditions of the snow pack and therefore provides more robust simulations,which are consistent with the US National Weather Service's move toward a physically based National Water Model. Physically based models may also be more capable of adapting to changing climates than statistical models corrected to past regimes. This work provides direction for both the Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center and other forecast centers across the US to implement remote-sensing observations within their operational framework, to refine the representation of snow, and to improve streamflow forecasting skill in basins with few or poor-quality observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MEASURING X-RAY VARIABILITY IN FAINT/SPARSELY SAMPLED ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

We study the statistical properties of the normalized excess variance of variability process characterized by a ''red-noise'' power spectral density (PSD), as in the case of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We perform Monte Carlo simulations of light curves, assuming both a continuous and a sparse sampling pattern and various signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns). We show that the normalized excess variance is a biased estimate of the variance even in the case of continuously sampled light curves. The bias depends on the PSD slope and on the sampling pattern, but not on the S/N. We provide a simple formula to account for the bias, which yields unbiased estimates with an accuracy better than 15%. We show that the normalized excess variance estimates based on single light curves (especially for sparse sampling and S/N < 3) are highly uncertain (even if corrected for bias) and we propose instead the use of an ''ensemble estimate'', based on multiple light curves of the same object, or on the use of light curves of many objects. These estimates have symmetric distributions, known errors, and can also be corrected for biases. We use our results to estimate the ability to measure the intrinsic source variability in current data, and show that they could also be useful in the planning of the observing strategy of future surveys such as those provided by X-ray missions studying distant and/or faint AGN populations and, more in general, in the estimation of the variability amplitude of sources that will result from future surveys such as Pan-STARRS and LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reduced Order Model to Predict Dispersion of Flammable Refrigerant into a Space

As the HVAC&R industry mobilizes to deploy more low-GWP refrigerants, relevant standards are being continually reviewed and updated. Those include the general safety standards ISO 5149 and ASHRAE 15, and the equipment standards IEC and UL. The standards systematically set the allowable maximum amount of refrigerant that should be used in different equipment types and different applications. To do so, they rely on predictions of how a leaked refrigerant mass will disperse into a space. Dispersion characteristics, such as total flammable volume and its residence time, determine the risk associated with the presence of the flammable refrigerant. The standards have included provisions for the use of flammable refrigerants for approximately two decades. They relied on limited analytical analyses and test cases in their development. Dispersion of a refrigerant into a space is complex. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are the most accurate in predicting a given problem. However, CFD is computationally expensive and requires specialized expertise and resources and is not suitable for use by standards development working group as prediction tool. This paper presents the development of a reduced order model (ROM) that predicts the key dispersion characteristics relevant to the dispersion of a leaked refrigerant into a space for any combination of input variables. The inputs are the refrigerant release height, the total released refrigerant mass and its release flow rate, the refrigerant molecular weight, the ventilation flow rate, the floor area and height of the space, recirculation air flow rate, and the tightness of the space. The outputs are histograms of volume fraction of the room in prescribed concentration bins and the total mass of the refrigerant in each bin normalized by the total refrigerant charge at 13 prescribed simulation time stamps between 1 and 900 seconds. The ROM is constructed from a set of CFD simulations with carefully chosen combinations of input parameters. The selection if done using a multidimensional sparse grid which is a generalization of the classical tensor approach but offers additional flexibility and thus can be more carefully tuned towards a specific model. The tuning is done to improve the accuracy, measured in the difference between the output values of the ROM and the CFD model, while minimizing the computational cost, measured in number of CFD simulations which is orders of magnitude more expensive than the processing the training data.

Edwards, Dean↗

The Sporadic History of Rubidium and its Role in Corrosion of Steel Related to Nuclear Material Storage

The influence of rubidium (Rb), both in its metallic and oxidized states, on the corrosion resistance of steels has direct relevance to the storage of radioactive Kr-85 containing nuclear materials. Kr-85 undergoes a ß-decay to generate stable, metallic Rb. The literature to date is sparse, contained primarily in company reports and divisive as to whether Rb metal, or its oxides, can lead to corrosion of steel materials. In both the direct storage of Kr-85 and used nuclear fuel that will contain Kr-85, if Rb is corrosive then continual decay of the Kr-85 will generate an increasingly corrosive environment for the steel canister it is stored in. This review was written to consolidate the known data to date on Rb corrosion of steels to identify consistencies, contradictions and remaining gaps in our understanding of the Rb : steel system.

krypton, corrosion, steel, Rubidium↗

SymProp: Scaling Sparse Symmetric Tucker Decomposition via Symmetry Propagation

Sparse symmetric tensors are an important class of tensors, and their decompositions serve as powerful tools for revealing low-rank structures. This paper introduces SymProp, a novel approach for scaling sparse symmetric Tucker decomposition by propagating symmetry through intermediate computations. SymProp optimizes two key computational kernels: Sparse Symmetric Tensor Times Same Matrix chain (S3 TTMc) for Higher-Order Orthogonal Iteration (HOOI) and Sparse Symmetric Tensor Times Same Matrix chain Times Core (S3 TTMcTC) for Higher-Order QR Iteration (HOQRI). Our method employs a metaprogramming-based index iteration approach to efficiently handle the upper triangular parts of intermediate dense symmetric tensors. SymProp achieves up to 50.9× speedup over SPLATT and up to 360.8× over Compressed Sparse Symmetric (CSS) format on the S3 TTMc operation. Moreover, our S3 TTMc and S3 TTMcTC implementations support tensor orders four levels higher than state-of-the-art methods. Our HOQRI demonstrates superior scalability and up to a 33.6× speedup over optimized HOOI. By enabling more scalable Tucker decompositions for higher orders, decomposition ranks, and dimension sizes, SymProp opens new possibilities for analyzing complex hypergraph structures in fields such as network science, data mining, and machine learning.

Li, Zecheng [North Carolina State University]↗

Phonetic acquisition in cortical dynamics, a computational approach

Many computational theories have been developed to improve artificial phonetic classification performance from linguistic auditory streams. However, less attention has been given to psycholinguistic data and neurophysiological features recently found in cortical tissue. We focus on a context in which basic linguistic units-such as phonemes-are extracted and robustly classified by humans and other animals from complex acoustic streams in speech data. We are especially motivated by the fact that 8-month-old human infants can accomplish segmentation of words from fluent audio streams based exclusively on the statistical relationships between neighboring speech sounds without any kind of supervision. In this paper, we introduce a biologically inspired and fully unsupervised neurocomputational approach that incorporates key neurophysiological and anatomical cortical properties, including columnar organization, spontaneous micro-columnar formation, adaptation to contextual activations and Sparse Distributed Representations (SDRs) produced by means of partial N-Methyl-D-aspartic acid (NMDA) depolarization. Its feature abstraction capabilities show promising phonetic invariance and generalization attributes. Our model improves the performance of a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier for monosyllabic, disyllabic and trisyllabic word classification tasks in the presence of environmental disturbances such as white noise, reverberation, and pitch and voice variations. Furthermore, our approach emphasizes potential self-organizing cortical principles achieving improvement without any kind of optimization guidance which could minimize hypothetical loss functions by means of-for example-backpropagation. Thus, our computational model outperforms multiresolution spectro-temporal auditory feature representations using only the statistical sequential structure immerse in the phonotactic rules of the input stream.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-KS1 Kennedy Space Center (slash pine)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-KS1 Kennedy Space Center (slash pine). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-KS1 Kennedy Space Center (slash pine) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Kennedy Space Center Slash Pine Flatwoods site is located in the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on the east coast of central Florida. Occupying 310 ha of local forest, the slash pine flatwoods ecosystem is managed as an uneven-aged stand with a sparsely populated overstory and a dense oak-dominated understory. Disturbances tend to occur on a 7 to 10 year cycle, mostly related to fire or hurricane activity. Prescribed fires have been conducted since 1969 to control understory fuel. The most recent burn was conducted in February of 1995. Following the burn, the stand was allowed to naturally regenerate into a open canopy of slash pines, less than 15% of canopy coverage ( on the order of 15-30 trees per ha), with a understory mostly composed of saw palmetto and scrub oak. There was a seasonally wet swale to the southeast that was on the margin of the flux tower footprint. A severe drought gripped most of Florida beginning in 1998 until the later half of 2001 resulting in four years of relatively low annual precipitation totals. Exceptionally high annual rainfall amounts in 2004 were the result of a pair of hurricanes that hit the area in August and September of 2004. Wind directions for the site are as follows: W and NW in the winter, afternoon E sea breeze in the summer.

Drake, Bert↗

Analysis of the Temporal Response of Coupled Asymmetrical Zero-Power Subcritical Bare Metal Reactor Systems

The behavior of symmetrical coupled-core systems has been extensively studied, yet there is a dearth of research on asymmetrical systems due to the increased complexity of the analysis of such systems. In this research, the multipoint kinetics method is applied to asymmetrical zeropower, subcritical, bare metal reactor systems. Existing research on asymmetrical reactor systems assumes symmetry in the neutronic coupling; however, it will be shown that this cannot always be assumed. Deep subcriticality adds another layer of complexity and requires modification of the multipoint kinetics equations to account for the effect of the external neutron source. A modified set of multipoint kinetics equations is derived with this in mind. Subsequently, the Rossi-alpha equations are derived for a two-region asymmetrical reactor system. The predictive capabilities of the radiation transport code MCNP6 for neutron noise experiments are shown in a comparison to the results of a series of Rossi-alpha measurements performed by J. Mihalczo utilizing a coupled set of symmetrical bare highly-enriched uranium (HEU) cylinders. The ptrac option within MCNP6 can generate time-tagged counts in a cell (list-mode data). The list-mode data can then be processed similarly to measured data to obtain values for system parameters such as the dual prompt neutron decay constants observable in a coupled system. The results from the ptrac simulations agree well with the historical measured values. A series of case studies are conducted to study the effects of geometrical asymmetry in the coupling between two bare metal HEU cylinders. While the coupling behavior of symmetrical systems has been reported on extensively, that of asymmetrical systems remains sparse. In particular, it appears that there has been no previous research in obtaining the coupling time constants for asymmetrically-coupled systems. The difficulty in observing such systems is due in part to the inability to determine the individual coupling coefficients from measurement: unlike the symmetrical cases, only the product of the values can be obtained. A method is proposed utilizing MCNP6 tally ratios to separate the coupling coefficients for such systems. This work provides insight into the behavior of asymmetrically-coupled systems as the separation distance between the two cores is changed and also as the asymmetry is increased. As the asymmetry increases, both the slower and the faster observable prompt neutron decay constants increase in magnitude. The coupling time constants are determined from the measured decay constants. As the separation distance increases, both coupling coefficients decrease as expected. Based on these findings, an effective computational method utilizing MCNP6 and the Rossialpha technique can be applied to the prediction of asymmetrical coupled system measurements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Forecasted Dynamic Line Ratings for Regional Transmission Lines

This report was prepared for the Wind Energy Technology Office for the FY 2022, quarter 3 deliverable. This details the use of forecasted dynamic line rating as an improvement over static rating for three transmission lines in three regions of interest. A selection of wind plants across Idaho, the Columbia River Gorge and offshore wind in the NYSERDA territory were modeled for their concurrent cooling effects for dynamic line rating. Regional transmission lines for the wind plant interconnections were determined and a CFD domain was created to determine local wind flows over the lines. A dynamic line rating for each of the lines was calculated for both weather observation data and HRRR model forecast data. The comparison of peaks in the wind power production were compared to the DLR peaks. It was determined that for shorter regional transmission lines, the effect of concurrent cooling that commonly occur with gen-tie lines were still valid. Concurrent cooling effects drop as the length of the regional transmission lines increase in distance from the wind plants. In addition, the accuracy of the forecasted ampacity to the weather observation data for ampacity was assessed. In general, the accuracy was best for the INL region with the NOAA-maintained sites. The Columbia River Gorge and Long Island sites showed similar levels of accuracy for the forecasted DLR. The accuracy levels were around 11% for the INL region, 15% for Columbia River Gorge and 7% for New York Long Island. The higher error for the Columbia Gorge region is likely due to the sparse availability of weather stations available, whereas both the INL site and Long Island are well instrumented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗

The increase in animal mortality risk following exposure to sparsely ionizing radiation is not linear quadratic with dose

The US government regulates allowable radiation exposures relying, in large part, on the seventh report from the committee to estimate the Biological Effect of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR VII), which estimated that most contemporary exposures- protracted or low-dose, carry 1.5 fold less risk of carcinogenesis and mortality per Gy than acute exposures of atomic bomb survivors. This correction is known as the dose and dose rate effectiveness factor for the life span study of atomic bomb survivors (DDREF LSS ). As a result, it was calculated by applying a linear-quadratic dose response model to data from Japanese atomic bomb survivors and a limited number of animal studies.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗