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DOE OSTI2021

Mining and Validating Social Media Data for COVID-19–Related Human Behaviors Between January and July 2020: Infodemiology Study

Background: Health authorities can minimize the impact of an emergent infectious disease outbreak through effective and timely risk communication, which can build trust and adherence to subsequent behavioral messaging. Monitoring the psychological impacts of an outbreak, as well as public adherence to such messaging, is also important for minimizing long-term effects of an outbreak. Objective: We used social media data from Twitter to identify human behaviors relevant to COVID-19 transmission, as well as the perceived impacts of COVID-19 on individuals, as a first step toward real-time monitoring of public perceptions to inform public health communications. Methods: We developed a coding schema for 6 categories and 11 subcategories, which included both a wide number of behaviors as well codes focused on the impacts of the pandemic (eg, economic and mental health impacts). We used this to develop training data and develop supervised learning classifiers for classes with sufficient labels. Classifiers that performed adequately were applied to our remaining corpus, and temporal and geospatial trends were assessed. We compared the classified patterns to ground truth mobility data and actual COVID-19 confirmed cases to assess the signal achieved here. Results: We applied our labeling schema to approximately 7200 tweets. The worst-performing classifiers had F1 scores of only 0.18 to 0.28 when trying to identify tweets about monitoring symptoms and testing. Classifiers about social distancing, however, were much stronger, with F1 scores of 0.64 to 0.66. We applied the social distancing classifiers to over 228 million tweets. We showed temporal patterns consistent with real-world events, and we showed correlations of up to –0.5 between social distancing signals on Twitter and ground truth mobility throughout the United States. Conclusions: Behaviors discussed on Twitter are exceptionally varied. Twitter can provide useful information for parameterizing models that incorporate human behavior, as well as for informing public health communication strategies by describing awareness of and compliance with suggested behaviors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Space Station Power System Advanced Development

The objectives of the Space Station Advanced Development Program are related to the development of a set of design options and/or new capabilities to support Space Station development and operation, taking into account also a quantification of the performance and risk of key state-of-the-art technologies, and a reduction of the cost and schedule risk in Space Station development. Attention is given to the photovoltaic power system, a solar dynamic system, and aspects of power management and distribution. A major issue will be the selection of the power generation system. In view of the advantages of the solar dynamic system, it is attempted to resolve issues associated with this system.

Forestieri, A. F.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Tethers as Debris: Hydrocode Simulation of Impacts of Polymer Tether Fragments on Aluminum Plates

Tethers promise to find use in a variety of space applications. Despite being narrow objects, their great lengths result in them having large total areas. Consequently, tethers are very susceptible to being severed by orbital debris. Extensive work has been done designing tethers that resist severs by small debris objects, in order to lengthen their working lives. It is from this perspective that most recent work has considered the tether - debris question. The potential of intact tethers, or severed tether fragments, as debris, to pose a significant collision risk to other spacecraft has been less well studied. Understanding the consequences of such collisions is important in assessing the risks tethers pose to other spacecraft. This paper discusses the damage that polymer tethers may produce on aluminum plates, as revealed by hypervelocity impact simulations using the SPHC hydrodynamic code.

Evans, Steven W.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Modeling Malaria Transmission in Thailand and Indonesia

Malaria Modeling and Surveillance is a project in the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program. The main objectives of this project are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species: 2) implementation of a malaria transmission model to identify they key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. Remote sensing and GIs are the essential elements of this project. The NASA Earth science data sets used in this project include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of precipitation, temperatures, humidity and vegetation. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Examples for spatio-temporal modeling of malaria transmissions in Southeast Asia are given. Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to Southeast Asia. The model and techniques are equally applicable to other regions of the world, when appropriate epidemiological and vector ecological parameters are used as input.

Kiang, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2013

Large Scale Flame Spread Environmental Characterization Testing

Under the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Spacecraft Fire Safety Demonstration Project (SFSDP), as a risk mitigation activity in support of the development of a large-scale fire demonstration experiment in microgravity, flame-spread tests were conducted in normal gravity on thin, cellulose-based fuels in a sealed chamber. The primary objective of the tests was to measure pressure rise in a chamber as sample material, burning direction (upward/downward), total heat release, heat release rate, and heat loss mechanisms were varied between tests. A Design of Experiments (DOE) method was imposed to produce an array of tests from a fixed set of constraints and a coupled response model was developed. Supplementary tests were run without experimental design to additionally vary select parameters such as initial chamber pressure. The starting chamber pressure for each test was set below atmospheric to prevent chamber overpressure. Bottom ignition, or upward propagating burns, produced rapid acceleratory turbulent flame spread. Pressure rise in the chamber increases as the amount of fuel burned increases mainly because of the larger amount of heat generation and, to a much smaller extent, due to the increase in gaseous number of moles. Top ignition, or downward propagating burns, produced a steady flame spread with a very small flat flame across the burning edge. Steady-state pressure is achieved during downward flame spread as the pressure rises and plateaus. This indicates that the heat generation by the flame matches the heat loss to surroundings during the longer, slower downward burns. One heat loss mechanism included mounting a heat exchanger directly above the burning sample in the path of the plume to act as a heat sink and more efficiently dissipate the heat due to the combustion event. This proved an effective means for chamber overpressure mitigation for those tests producing the most total heat release and thusly was determined to be a feasible mitigation strategy to incorporate into the microgravity experiment.

Clayman, Lauren K.↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Assessment of Environmental Health Needs for Manned Spacecraft

Environmental health fundamentally addresses the physical, chemical, and biological risks external to the human body that can impact the health of a person by assessing and controlling these risks in order to generate and maintain a health‐supportive environment. Environmental monitoring coupled with other measures including active and passive controls and the implementation of environmental standards (SMACs, SWEGs, microbial and acoustics limits) are used to ensure environmental health in manned spacecraft. NASA scientists and engineers consider environmental monitoring a vital component to an environmental health management strategy for maintaining a healthy crew and achieving mission success. Environmental monitoring data confirms the health of ECLS systems, in addition to contributing to the management of the health of human systems. Crew health risks associated with the environment were reviewed by agency experts with the goal of determining risk-based environmental monitoring needs for future NASA manned missions. Once determined, gaps in knowledge and technology, required to address those risks, were identified for various types of Exploration missions. This agency‐wide assessment of environmental health needs will help guide the activities/hardware development efforts to close those gaps and advance the knowledge required to meet NASA manned space exploration objectives. Details of this assessment and findings are presented in this paper.

Macatangay, Ariel V.↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Mission Accessibility of Near-Earth Asteroids

The population of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) that may be accessible for human space flight missions is defined by the Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS). The NHATS is an automated system designed to monitor the accessibility of, and particular mission opportunities offered by, the NEA population. This is analogous to systems that automatically monitor the impact risk posed to Earth by the NEA population. The NHATS system identifies NEAs that are potentially accessible for future round-trip human space flight missions and provides rapid notification to asteroid observers so that crucial follow-up observations can be obtained following discovery of accessible NEAs. The NHATS was developed in 2010 and was automated by early 2012. NHATS data are provided via an interactive web-site, and daily NHATS notification emails are transmitted to a mailing list; both resources are available to the public.

Mission Design↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Analysis for Long Term Capital Structures, Systems, and Components Refurbishment and Replacement

As commercial Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operation in the form of Second License Renewal (SLR), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term safe and economic performance. At the current time, several utilities have announced an intention to pursue extended operation for one or more of their NPPs via SLR . The goal of this research is to develop a risk-informed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions for NPP operations. Since the capital investments are influenced by various factors, such as markets, safety and regulatory, the decision-making process of NPP operations should take into account relevant factors for balancing risks, costs and profits. The traditional method of capital budgeting is based on the priority list of candidate projects using economic measures such as benefit-investment ratio, net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return. In the literatures, the problem of capital budgeting or the variant can be represented by an appropriate knapsack problem. The knapsack approach to capital budgeting takes as input as investment, along with the cost and profit of each project. The objective of capital budgeting is to find the combination of the binary decisions for every investment such that the overall profit is as large as possible. The output is a collection of projects to be carried out, and we refer this selected collection of projects as a project portfolio. One limitation of traditional optimization models for capital budgeting is that they do not account for risk/uncertainty in profit and cost streams associated with individual projects, they do not account for risk in resource availability in future years [1,2,3]. Projects can incur cost over-runs, especially when projects are large, performed infrequently, and when there is risk regarding technical viability, external contractors, and/or suppliers of requisite parts and materials. Occasionally, projects are performed ahead of schedule and with cost savings. Planned budgets for capital improvements can be cut and key personnel may be lost. Or, there may be surprise windfalls in budgets for maintenance activities due to decreased costs for “unplanned” maintenance. In these cases, how should we resolve capital budgeting when we have risk forecasts for costs, profits and budgets? One approach we proposed in this summary is to re-solve the optimization models based on assumed statistical distributions of given parameters. If these distributions were not available, a two-stage stochastic optimization approach can be used to provide priority lists to decision-makers to support better risk-informed decisions [4, 5]. In this summary, we will only focus on the first approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2015

Risky Business

During my internship I worked on two major projects, recommending improvements for the Center's Risk Management Workshop and helping with the strategic planning efforts for Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA). The risk management improvements is the key project I worked on this semester through my internship, while the strategic planning is the secondary assignment. S&MA Business Office covers both aspects in its delegation, getting both spans some of the work done in the office. A risk is a future event with a negative consequence that has some probability of occurring. Safety and Mission Assurance identifies, analyzes, plans, and tracks risk. The directorate offers the Center a Risk Management Workshop, and part of the ongoing efforts of S&MA is to make continuous improvements to the RM Workshop. By using the Project Management Institute's (PMI) Standard for Risk Management, I performed a gap analysis to make improvements for our materials. I benchmarked the PMI's Risk Management Standard, compared our Risk Management Workshop materials to PMI's standard, and identified any gaps in our material. My major findings were presented to the Business Office of S&MA for a decision on whether or not to incorporate the improvements. These suggestions were made by attending JSC working group meetings, Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) panel reviews and various risk review meetings. The improvements provide better understanding of risk management processes and enhanced risk tracking knowledge and skills. Risk management is an integral part of any engineering discipline, getting exposed to this section of engineering will greatly help shape my career in the future. Johnson Space Center is a world leader in risk management processes; learning risk management here gives me a huge advantage over my peers, as well as understanding decision making in the context of risk management will help me to be a well-rounded engineer. Strategic planning is an area I had not previously studied. Helping with the strategic planning efforts in S&MA has taught me how organizations think and function as a whole. S&MA is adopting a balanced scorecard approach to strategic planning. As part of this planning method strategic themes, objectives, and initiatives are formed. I attended strategic theme team workshops that formed the strategy map for the directorate and gave shape to the plan. Also during these workshops the objectives were discussed and built. Learning the process for strategic planning has helped me better understand how organizations and businesses function, which also helps me to be a more effective employee. Other assignments I had during my internship included completing the Safety and Mission Assurance Technical Excellent Program (STEP) Level 1, as well as doing a two week rotation through the Space Exploration division in S&MA, specifically working with a thermal protection systems (TPS) engineer. While working there, I learned about the Orion capsule and the SpaceX Dragon cargo capsule. I attended meetings to prepare the engineers for the upcoming Critical Design Reviews for both capsules and reviewed test data. Learning risk management, strategic planning, and working in the Space Exploration division has taught me about many aspects of S&MA. My internship at NASA has given me new experiences and taught me numerous subjects that I would have otherwise not learned. This opportunity has expanded my educational horizons and is helping me to become a more useful engineer and employee.

Yarbrough, Katherine↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coronado Generating Station Repowering Evaluation - Siting Evaluation

The purpose of this initial siting evaluation is to consider the suitability of the Salt River Project (SRP) owned land at/near Coronado Generating Station (CGS) for a nuclear generating station (including advanced light water reactors, light water small modular reactors, and non-light-water designs1) and to assess if there are any exclusionary or avoidance factors associated with coal to nuclear repowering at CGS. This initial siting evaluation considers several characteristics (e.g., environmental conditions, seismic concerns, site footprint, water use, etc.) and highlights favorable/preferred characteristics as well as potential risks to feasibility. The results are intended to inform SRP on the strengths and weaknesses associated with the CGS site and inform the selection of candidate nuclear technologies for the CGS site that align with SRP’s mission and business objectives. This report relies on industry-recognized siting guidance, including Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI’s) Siting Guide (Reference 1) 2 and Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Regulatory Guide (RG) 4.7 (Reference 3), as well as nuclear domain expertise within the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear (GAIN), MPR Associates, Inc. (MPR), and the Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

SLIA Reference Architecture Models

The SLIA Reference Architecture Models project, sponsored by the DOE CESER Energy CyberSense Program (Oct 2024–Sep 2025), advanced LLNL’s PySCES simulation tool to better support CyTRICS Prioritization and Initial Risk Assessment (PIRA) reference architectures. Key achievements include enhancements to the PySCES transmission substation facility model, expanded asset coverage, and enhancements to the PySCES code base. Software improvements reduced code complexity, migrated PySCES to Python version 3.11, introduced an object-oriented design, and added a schema database for easier updates and validation. New features support device criticality assessments and a more precise parametric simulation mode. Remaining gaps include model validation, workflow limitations, Monte Carlo convergence issues, full device criticality metric implementation, model fidelity, and general software improvements. Continued development is recommended to address these gaps and fully align PySCES with CyTRICS PIRA requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1981

Frequency and time generation and control

High precision quartz crystal oscillators, cesium beam atomic resonators, and cesium beam atomic standards for time and frequency generation equipment for ground, airborne, and space use are described. Because of the high risk factors involved, and the commercial applications of these products being too far off in the future, private capital for research and development is difficult if not impossible to obtain. More specific analysis and recommendations to overcome these difficulties are objectively presented.

Bloch, M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Reducing the complexity of software systems - A strategic software perspective

The results of a combined management and technical initiative aimed at reducing the size and complexity associated with developing operations planning, scheduling, and resource management software systems are presented. The initiative has produced operations concepts, functional requirements, system architectures, a comprehensive lexicon, and software tools to revolutionize the traditional software technology and development practices for planning, scheduling, and resource management systems used in space operations control centers. Examples of technology and practices to reduce complexity include a method for projecting design consequences from an operations concept, a universal architecture for heuristic algorithms, an object-oriented framework for describing large classes of problems that parametrically adapt to all domain peculiarities, the identification of general approaches which respond to changes with minimum impact on systems implementations, and a management structure for prototyping to minimize the risks of ill-conceived designs.

Hornstein, Rhoda S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Advisory Committee on the Redesign of the Space Station

The Space Station Program was initiated in 1984 to provide for permanent human presence in an orbiting laboratory. This program evolved into Space Station Freedom, later identified as a component to facilitate a return of astronauts to the Moon, followed by the exploration of Mars. In March 1993 the Clinton Administration directed NASA to undertake an intense effort to redesign the space station at a substantial cost savings relative to Space Station Freedom. The Advisory Committee on the Redesign of the Space Station was established in March 1993 to provide independent assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the redesign options. The results of the Committee's work is described. Discussion describes the mission that the Administration has articulated for the Space Station Program and the scientific and technical characteristics that a redesigned station must possess to fulfill those objectives. A description of recommended management, operations, and acquisition strategies for the redesigned program is provided. The Committee's assessment of the redesign options against five criteria are presented. The five criteria are technical capabilities, research capabilities, schedule, cost, and risk. A discussion of general mission risk is included.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2011

Fission Power System Technology for NASA Exploration Missions

Under the NASA Exploration Technology Development Program, and in partnership with the Department of Energy (DOE), NASA is conducting a project to mature Fission Power System (FPS) technology. A primary project goal is to develop viable system options to support future NASA mission needs for nuclear power. The main FPS project objectives are as follows: 1) Develop FPS concepts that meet expected NASA mission power requirements at reasonable cost with added benefits over other options. 2) Establish a hardware-based technical foundation for FPS design concepts and reduce overall development risk. 3) Reduce the cost uncertainties for FPS and establish greater credibility for flight system cost estimates. 4) Generate the key products to allow NASA decisionmakers to consider FPS as a preferred option for flight development. In order to achieve these goals, the FPS project has two main thrusts: concept definition and risk reduction. Under concept definition, NASA and DOE are performing trade studies, defining requirements, developing analytical tools, and formulating system concepts. A typical FPS consists of the reactor, shield, power conversion, heat rejection, and power management and distribution (PMAD). Studies are performed to identify the desired design parameters for each subsystem that allow the system to meet the requirements with reasonable cost and development risk. Risk reduction provides the means to evaluate technologies in a laboratory test environment. Non-nuclear hardware prototypes are built and tested to verify performance expectations, gain operating experience, and resolve design uncertainties.

Mason, Lee↗

NASA NTRS2013

An Assessment of Environmental Health Needs

Environmental health fundamentally addresses the physical, chemical, and biological risks external to the human body that can impact the health of a person by assessing and controlling these risks in order to generate and maintain a health-supportive environment. In manned spacecraft, environmental health risks are mitigated by a multi-disciplinary effort, employing several measures including active and passive controls, by establishing environmental standards (SMACs, SWEGs, microbial and acoustics limits), and through environmental monitoring. Human Health and Performance (HHP) scientists and Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) engineers consider environmental monitoring a vital component to an environmental health management strategy for maintaining a healthy crew and achieving mission success. ECLS engineers use environmental monitoring data to monitor and confirm the health of ECLS systems, whereas HHP scientists use the data to manage the health of the human system. Because risks can vary between missions and change over time, environmental monitoring is critical. Crew health risks associated with the environment were reviewed by agency experts with the goal of determining risk-based environmental monitoring needs for future NASA manned missions. Once determined, gaps in environmental health knowledge and technology, required to address those risks, were identified for various types of exploration missions. This agency-wide assessment of environmental health needs will help guide the activities/hardware development efforts to close those gaps and advance the knowledge required to meet NASA manned space exploration objectives. Details of the roadmap development and findings are presented in this paper.

Macatangay, Ariel V.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Is the Sky Really Falling? An Overview of Orbital Debris

Orbital debris has been a prominent topic for a while, even before the movie Gravity came out. An anti-satellite test and a collision with an operational satellite both produced large highly-publicized debris clouds within recent years. While large objects like abandoned satellites and rocket bodies may be the most recognizable and identifiable concerns, a majority of the daily threat comes from the much more numerous smaller particles. In fact, small particle penetration continues to rank among the leading risks for manned space missions to the International Space Station and beyond. How much 'stuff' is up there, where did it come from, what harm can it do, and what is being done about it? These questions and more will be discussed.

Orbital Debris↗

NASA NTRS2018

Plans and Concepts for a New Generation of RTGs for Planetary Science Missions

Of the six types of radioisotope thermoelectric generators NASA has flown in space, only the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) is currently available for spaceflight, and it relies on technology first used for RTGs in the 1970s. The MMRTG is a rugged power system capable of delivering 110W at launch. NASA is considering future missions with higher power demands however, and sponsored a study to identify concepts and plans to address those needs. The Director of NASA’s Planetary Sciences Division was briefed on a potential enhancement to the MMRTG in late-2012, just a couple of days after the landing of the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity, on Mars. NASA subsequently funded system-level engineering and technology maturation tasks for a proposed enhanced MMRTG, or eMMRTG, in fiscal year 2013. There was no plan to build a complete generator, rather the engineering of one, and the transfer of technology from laboratories at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to industry were begun. NASA has now formed a Project to take the eMMRTG from technology to a qualification unit. This would form the first of a new generation of RTGs in 50 years. NASA has also formed a Project for a Next-Generation RTG concept based upon a study led by this author and a large team. NASA’s Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) Program set the objective for the study to explore what possible options NASA has for Next-Generation-RTGs. The scope and breadth of the study included many possible destinations within the solar system, and traded a variety of RTG conceptual designs, and risk rated a variety of thermoelectric materials and couple configurations. Requirements were defined for the RTG concepts, a variety of thermoelectric materials were evaluated to find the most mature candidates, and performance was estimated for each RTG concept that could use the most mature of these new thermoelectric materials. The study relied upon mission concepts outlined in the latest Planetary Science Decadal Survey (2011), other more recent mission studies completed throughout the agency, and recent analyses of potential missions to ocean worlds to identify requirements that were not applied to previous RTGs but might prove valuable to these NG-RTGs. RTG concepts with maximal potential utility were identified as being modular and ranging in power output from 50 to 500W. A variety of RTG design concepts with several distinguishing characteristics were formulated. The plans and concepts for a new generation of RTGs (the eMMRTG and NG-RTG) will be discussed.

Woerner, David F.↗