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At least 1,153 records · Page 64

An Integrated Reliability and Physics-Based Risk Modeling Approach for Assessing Human Spaceflight Systems

This paper presents an integrated reliability and physics-based risk modeling approach for assessing human spaceflight systems. The approach is demonstrated using an example, end-to-end risk assessment of a generic-crewed space transportation system during a reference mission to the International Space Station. The behavior of the system is modeled using analysis techniques from multiple disciplines in order to properly capture the dynamic time- and state- dependent consequences of failures encountered in different mission phases. We discuss how to combine traditional reliability analyses with Monte Carlo simulation methods and physics-based engineering models to produce loss-of- mission and loss-of-crew risk estimates supporting risk-based decision-making and requirement verification. This approach facilitates risk-informed design by providing more realistic representation of system failures and interactions; identifying key risk-driving sensitivities, dependencies, and assumptions; and tracking multiple figures of merit within a single, responsive assessment framework that can readily incorporate evolving design information throughout system development.

Risk assessment↗

Radiation Single Event Effects (SEE) Impact on Complex Avionics Architecture Reliability

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has an urgent need to understand how system-level reliability of an avionics architecture is compromised when portions of the architecture are temporarily unavailable due to single event effects (SEE). The proposed activity parametrically evaluated these SEE impacts on system reliability based on mission duration, upset rate and recovery times for a representative redundant architecture. The key stakeholders for this study are NASA programs and projects that expect to use avionics architectures with electrical, electronic and electromechanical (EEE) parts susceptible to SEE when exposed to the mission expected radiation environment.

Hodson, Robert F.↗

Reliability, Safety, and Performance for Two Aerospace Revolutions - UAS/ODM and Commercial Deep Space

Aerospace is in the midst of a renaissance, expanding on both the air and space side into major new commercial areas including unmanned air systems (UAS), on demand mobility (ODM), personal air vehicles (PAV), and commercial deep space. These new areas require, in the initial planning, consideration of new safety, reliability, and in some cases, enabling performance approaches for viability. For example, due to their huge numbers, if current accident rates prevail, UAS/ODM/PAV aircraft could crash at an unacceptable rate, causing life and property damage. Also, if humans in commercial space activities have serious health issues and/or there are unacceptable rocket viability issues/crash rates, these new, major markets (order of 1 trillion dollars per year) could be rapidly curtailed until agreeable and effective changes are instituted, producing additional expense, delay, and reduced revenue. This report addresses such safety and reliability issues and includes: performance enhancement possibilities such as an enabling Air Traffic Control System (ATC), crash proof vehicles, increased range for aero, space debris removal, and human health for space.

Crash Proof↗

Reliability Characterization of TaOx-Based Commercial ReRAM in Combination with Radiation

We present reliability data combined with total dose gamma radiation for one of the first commercially available resistive memory devices. These Tantalum Oxide (TaOX)-based resistive memory chips demonstrate operation in dynamic program and erase testing up to ~130 Krad(Si) of 60Co gamma dose. In static and unbiased conditions, the stored data in the memory cells were able to withstand up to 50Mrad(Si) of exposure. The access circuitry, though, seemed less robust to gamma radiation and was able to operate only up to a total dose of 3Mrad(Si). Post exposure reliability as indicated by endurance, cycling error rate, and data retention tests showed no detectable impact from the combination with prior gamma irradiation. Overall, the total dose radiation tolerance of the commercial TaOx-based resistive memory chip appears to be higher than flash memory chips and in agreement with prior tests conducted with single cell resistive memories.

total ionizing dose↗

SCREAM: Space-based Cognitive Reliability Error Analysis Method

Given both ground-based performance shaping factors (PSFs) collected by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and potential space-based PSFs collected by JSC's HH&P, this year's task is to determine how to combine them for future human reliability analysis (HRA) of space missions. All HRA to date for space missions have been based on ground data (i.e. 1-G environment). There is no space-based HRA approach. The target of this project to produce a "first of its kind" HRA approach for space missions. As humans go beyond Earth orbit and missions become longer, human performance and reliability is expected to degrade. The questions become by how much, when, and what, leading to defining the overall effect on crew risk. Knowing this information earlier rather than later will help us mitigate this risk by vehicle design, crew training, and operational workarounds.

Boyer, Roger L.↗

Reliability Issues with PME and BME Ceramic Capacitors

This work is a review of reliability issues specific for low-voltage precious metal electrode (PME) and base metal electrode (BME) multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC). A special attention is given to degradation and failures in capacitors with defects, in particular with cracks. Temperature and voltage reliability acceleration factors have been calculated based on approximation of distributions of degradation rates of leakage currents using a general log-linear Weibull model. Results show a substantial difference in behavior of BME and PME capacitors with defects. Mechanisms of degradation and failures in humid and dry environments and risks of overstressing capacitors during highly accelerated life testing (HALT) are discussed.

Teverovsky, Alexander↗

Microelectronics reliability : physics-of-failure based modeling and lifetime evaluation

This handbook presents a physics-of-failure approach to microelectronics reliability modeling and assessment. Knowledge of the root cause and physical behavior of key failure mechanisms in microelectronic devices has improved dramatically over recent years and has led to the development of more sophisticated reliability modeling tools and techniques...

White, Mark↗

Space Radiation Effects on SiC Power Device Reliability

Heavy-ion radiation can result in silicon carbide power device degradation and/or catastrophic failure. Test procedures and data interpretation must consider the impact that heavy-ion induced off-state leakage current increases will have on subsequent single-event effect susceptibility and testability. On orbit, reliable performance in the presence of increased off-state leakage currents due to cumulative ion-induced non-catastrophic single-event effects must be assured over the mission lifetime. This work presents a large body of heavy-ion test data for different diode, power MOSFET, and JFET devices. Susceptibility to single-event effects is compared between SiC and Si power devices. Initial recommendations on heavy-ion radiation test methods for silicon carbide power devices are made and radiation hardness assurance is discussed with the goal of moving one step closer to reliably getting this technology off the ground into a broad array of spacecraft and instruments that will benefit from its unique capabilities.

diode↗

Going beyond reliability to achieve robustness

Reliability is the ability to perform well and consistently. More formally, reliability is defined as the mathematical probability that a system does not fail during a specified time period under its specified operating conditions. The specified operating conditions often go beyond the nominal environment to include variations and challenges encountered in operational use. The difficulty is that systems are often operated outside of their specified operating conditions and, if they fail, the designers are in theory blameless. Unanticipated damaging events include internal failures, external disruptions in supporting systems, accidents, and repurposing. The most common explanation of a system failure is human error, which is usually the first assumption of the system designers. Robustness is the capability to perform without failure under a wide range of conditions that go beyond the specified operating conditions. The first step towards improving robustness would be to expand the system’s specified operating conditions to include a wider range of anticipated challenges, especially human error. Beyond this, there is a need for general approach to reduce the impact of unanticipated future events, the unknown unknowns, by improving the system’s general ability to cope. Robustness can be improved by providing additional processing capacity, larger flow control buffers, increased backup storage, more online redundancy, and more capable supervisory monitoring and control.

Harry W Jones↗

Gradient-Enhanced Reliability Analysis of Transonic Aeroelastic Flutter

Reliability computation for transonic aeroelastic systems is a challenging task, given the complex physical mechanisms involved, and broader challenges associated with computing small probabilities of failure/flutter. This paper demonstrates the use of four different reliability estimation tools, with a particular focus on tools that can utilize gradient information: the derivative of flutter boundaries with respect to random parametric inputs. Results are shown for two test cases: the AGARD 445.6 case and the Common Research Model, and the strength and weaknesses of each UQ tool are compared in terms of cost and accuracy. Two of the UQ tools used here require gradients as part of a search process, but the other two are sample-based, and are able to leverage the existence of gradients for improved performance.

Bret K Stanford↗

Reliable Ignition of LOX Methane Propellants in Thermal Vacuum Environment

The goal of this project is to demonstrate reliable ignition of liquid oxygen-liquid methane at thermal vacuum conditions using a coil-on-plug (COP) sparking exciter. Testing will be performed using EP’s Frost-Mint cryogenic propellant test stand, using an engine updated based on data collected from previous engine testing at Plum Brook Station, to determine conditions under which the cryogenic propellants will consistently and reliably ignite. In FY22 the project successfully completed the following milestones. The cryogenic test stand Frost-Mint was upgraded to include an integrated vacuum tube and liquid nitrogen cooling system enabling cold vacuum ignition testing. The Integrated GN2/LN2 Ultra-Low-temperature Enclosure (IGLUE), a custom-built close-coupled heater exchanger shroud was designed, fabricated, tested and integrated into the test stand. The vacuum tube and IGLUE enabled the thruster body and propellants to be conditioned to temperatures and pressures desired. This work recreated the no-light conditions experienced during vehicle-level thermal vacuum testing and obtained thruster performance data and ignition imagery.

liquid oxygen↗

Combining Data with Physical Knowledge for Uncertainty Quantification in Certification and Reliability Analysis

Unifying empirical data with predictive models can enable engineering cost-savings through certification by analysis and reliability-based design. Both concepts require rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) and robust understanding and treatment of relevant physics. Combining sampling-based UQ algorithms with high-fidelity simulations creates a computational bottleneck that is often alleviated through the use of machine learning (ML). ML can be used to create computationally efficient surrogates for simulations of complex or high-dimensional physical interactions (e.g., multi-phase interactions associated with melt pools in laser powder bed fusion or spatially-dependent material properties in functionally graded materials). However, negative side effects of ML may include a lack of interpretability and negative correlation between event rarity and simulation accuracy due to a lack of training data. As such, it is important to infuse ML algorithms with physics-based guardrails to provide confidence in their predictions. This talk will provide a brief review of recent NASA research at this intersection of physics-based simulation, ML, and UQ with a focus on certification and reliability analysis.

uncertainty quantification↗

AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Aircraft Electrical Powertrains Task 3: Lifetime and Reliability of Electrical Insulators

This research project was a collaborative investigation between researchers at the RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC) and the University of Texas at Austin and made a significant contribution to enabling electric aircraft. The transport of electric power between the points of generation and use requires power cables. These cables must be smaller, lighter and provide a more predictable life than power cables used in stationary applications. Consequently, this investigation provided heretofore unavailable information supporting the safety and reliability of smaller lighter power cables for electrified aircraft. In addition, the research identified key additional engineering data needed to support quantitative reliability assessments. Important advances included: • Demonstrated that at least one manufacturer can make a novel, smaller, lighter power cable that is free from serious defects. • Developed and published an appropriate analytical construct to describe the life of this novel cable. This is a necessary step for use in aviation where the understanding of remaining life is critical. • Demonstrated thermal-mechanical aging that suggested 1000+ flights before the thermal-mechanical processes produced defects large enough that the defect growth was accelerated electrically. • Showed that electrical aging took place at two rates. The first possibly lasting weeks to months and the second possibly days to weeks. If robust, this provides a good diagnostic for cable replacement. • Demonstrated that the traditional electrical testing of cable materials using manufactured voids can be misleading due to the size of the voids. Emerging laser drilling technology permitted demonstration that the physics of failure in realistically small voids is different from that in the unrealistically large voids used in earlier research, which is very important for high-quality, high-performance, small aircraft cables. Although this project represents a significant contribution to the specifics of cable aging in the aircraft environment, important additional research remains to be completed, including: • Non-uniform thermal cycling by applying the heat from the center conductor to maximize thermal stress next to the core area where the electric gradient is the strongest. This builds on the uniform thermal cycling that has been completed. • The augmentation of the thermal-mechanical failure rate by electrical processes. Better understanding of these time constants strongly affects the ability to predict life. • Termination design: Terminations provide not only electrical reflection potential, but a location for a series arc fault and an area where ozone can diffuse into the center conductor and negatively affect cable insulation. • The abrasion and ozone resistance of the cable jacket. • Pressure cycling as an accelerant of thermal, mechanical, and/or electrical aging. • Possible methods for online PD detection and offline PD localization

model↗

Quantitative Evaluation of Reliability Improvement: Case Study on a Self-healing Distribution System

In this work, we develop a methodology and tool to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of a self-healing system that considers practical distribution system features such as the distributed energy resources, microgrids, and service restoration strategies. Also, this paper addresses various practical issues when being applied to an actual Duke Energy distribution system, including the design of feasible and practical service restoration strategies that are used to identify the customer interruptions after a fault, and the incorporation of the utility's historical reliability indices that are used to calibrate the failure rate and repair time of distribution system components such as overhead lines and underground cables. This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Dong, Jiaojiao↗

Glass/Glass Photovoltaic Module Reliability and Degradation: A Review - Figures

Glass/glass (G/G) photovoltaic (PV) module construction is quickly rising in popularity due to increased demand for bifacial PV modules, with additional applications for thin-film and building-integrated PV technologies. G/G modules are expected to withstand harsh environmental conditions and extend the installed module lifespan to greater than 30 years compared to conventional glass/backsheet (G/B) modules. With the rapid growth of G/G deployment, understanding the outdoor performance, degradation, and reliability of this PV module construction becomes highly valuable. In this review, we present the history of G/G modules that have existed in the field for the past 20 years, their subsequent reliability issues under different climates, and methods for accelerated testing and characterization of both cells and packaging materials. We highlight some general trends of G/G modules, such as greater degradation when using poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA) encapsulants, causing the industry to move toward polyolefin-based encapsulants. Transparent backsheets have also been introduced as an alternative to the rear glass for decreasing the module weight and aiding the effusion of trapped gaseous degradation products in the laminate. New amendments to IEC 61215 standard protocols for G/G bifacial modules have also been proposed so that the rear side power generation and UV exposure will be standardized. We further summarize a suite of destructive and non-destructive characterization techniques, such as current-voltage scans, module electro-optical imaging, adhesion tests, nanoscale structural/chemical investigation, and forensic analysis, to provide deeper insights into the fundamental properties of the module materials degradation and how it can be monitored in the G/G construction. This will set the groundwork for future research and product development.

transparent backsheet↗

Fast, Accurate, and Reliable Thermal Metrology to Assess the Thermal Resistivity on Small Samples of Thermal Insulation

Developing new insulation materials having a thermal resistivity greater than 69 m K/W (10 hr ft2 °F/Btu/inch) can be appealing for building envelope retrofit and construction of new buildings. Multiple institutions are involved in the development of innovative insulation materials with high thermal resistivity. However, these projects have struggled in the development of new materials due to the difficulty associated with the measurement of small sections of high thermal resistivity materials. As new materials are being developed, the size of each test specimen impacts the cost of development. Given the lack of a reliable method to measure the thermal resistivity on small samples of such materials, we evaluated experimental techniques that can be improved to satisfy the need for testing small sections of high thermal resistivity materials and developed standardized test methods to enable the rapid thermal evaluation of advanced insulation materials. This paper presents the study results and potential techniques for fast, accurate, and reliable effective thermal resistivity measurement on small samples of insulation materials.

Desjarlais, Andre Omer↗

Energy in the Balance: PV Reliability to Power the Energy Transition

We present an analysis of the effects of reliability on our ability to achieve the energy transition deployment targets. We examine three end of life modes as captured in the PV ICE tool; degradation, failures, and project lifetime. Recommendations are made for improving PV reliability for achieving energy energy transition.

circularity↗